Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Update Webinar
thank you so much Daniela and thank you everyone for joining today as Daniela mentioned this is the update to the transportation annual technology Baseline and I'm delighted to uh present um on behalf of our entire team uh the co-authors are listed here and specific roles of these co-authors are shown here many of the co-authors are with us today and we'll be happy to address your questions about their uh areas of responsibility directly I'd like to especially acknowledge that argon National Laboratory has partnered with the national renewable energy lab to develop the content and data for this website and um many of the Argon team are here with us today and can answer your questions as well on the agenda for today I'll address the motivation for the ATB the project overview provide a demonstration of the website and then open it up for questions and comments please don't hesitate as Daniela mentioned to use the Q&A to ask questions throughout and the team will be answering those as possible and then we'll also come online during the Q&A period to address questions so first of all why the ATB what's our motivation here um we are interested in addressing the rapid pace of Technology development to provide all of you with credible current consistent information in one place on transportation and fuels um fuels and vehicles Technologies so we're hoping that this product AIDS understanding of Technology cost and performance across energy sectors and this particular part of the at TB informs Transportation sector analysis for the United States the annual technology basine website does have the two parts that are shown here in the image and we'll be talking today just about the transportation part so the ATB is used for analysis internally to the Department of Energy's Energy Efficiency and renewable energy office as well as by thirdparty analysts such as many of the participants in today's webinar uh who may uh want to use these same sets of assumptions for their own purposes with that brief intro I'll now turn to the ATB project overview um and as we dive into this um I think it's important to kind of level set as to what the ATB is and what it is not um so it is a website with summary data sets of cost and performance estimates for selected vehicles and fuels um importantly it's also a portal for a really key set of other resources other websites other Publications can all be uh identified through the ATB um and these are the resources that the National Lab team has identified as some of the most important ones for transportation analysis um so if if you can't find it on the ATB itself You may wish to pursue some of those other resources that are all listed in the references cited in the documentation and often linked directly from the documentation the ATB also provides a set of scenarios um to highlight different levels of optimism around technological improvements um and it enables interactive exploration of many of the data sets um either directly on the website or through the the data downloads importantly ATB is not a primary analysis a model or in any sense a an all-encompassing um future set of scenarios so in the transportation ATB um we provide uh key vehicles and fuels data and we do this um by using a set of inputs shown kind of in the middle uh that rely on assumptions about vehicle cost components and Fuel and um blend stock pathway cost components um as as well as performance for both of those what we take into the ATB um from our references are the set of inputs shown in the middle around modeled vehicle price fuel economy emissions by Fuel um fuel costs and then we also takeen some assumptions around discount rate and VMT vehicle miles traveled and lifetime of vehicles in order to enable a um calculation of a levelized cost of driving and Emissions um at the vehicle level which takes into account both the vehicle and the fuel assumptions so this is the overall flow of information within the ATB um the pieces that are new in this update include both the addition of medium and heavyduty vehicles Long Haul Buck truck and stepan as well as the addition of classes of light duty vehicle powert trins beyond the midsize we also have added a number of fuels especially for sustainable aviation fuel um with ethanol to Jet Fisher Trope and hydroprocessed Esters and fatty acids as well as the diesel Pathways that correspond to the ft and hea Pathways so importantly this all comes from a number of key sources um argon's annual autonomy modeling is critical to this product and we are fortunate to have asan Islam on the line who can help answer questions that may dive into into details of how um the autonomy modeling produced the modeled vehicle price and fuel economy assumptions um we also have fuel cost assumptions from a variety of sources with uh many of the experts on those here on the line um as well as fuel emissions from argon's greet model and we have several greet modelers on the line as well um a variety of uh other assumptions that were essential for the calculations um are included and we have folks here who can speak to those so if you have questions about sources we have with us many of the experts on these here today to answer those so please don't hesitate to dive in um in terms of the transportation ATB the core data that we present are shown here from fuel economy vehicle price fuel cost emissions um both well to tank and well to Wheels as well as financing assumption and that levelized cost of driving calculation we present this data in a variety of different ways um the website itself a downloadable Tableau workbook formatted data sheets as well as these presentation slides that will be available on AI and the website um so we hope that this package provides transparency consistency credibility and accessibility across these important Transportation data um and that uh you are able to readily use them um for analysis and information this as I mentioned before is a a companion product to an electricity ATB that's also available on the same website under that electricity uh tab column and that electricity ATB similarly is used as model inputs for analyses by a variety of external users so if you have an interest on the electricity side uh you may wish to to check out that companion product so now I'll turn to the website itself I'm going to be presenting um screenshots of the website first and then time permitting I'll do an actual uh live demo of of the site um so when you first dive into the transportation area of the ATB you'll see that we've added several top level sections um that cover the the new um areas of data um importantly the medium and heavyduty vehicles section is now provided and we also have a page about Aviation um so from the top level uh those are the options under the technology and I'll also call to attention that in the about section there are a lot of important definitions um as well as a consolidation of all the the references um this data part of the navigation is where all of the download s um occur as well as where you can visualize um all of the data uh that that's used um elsewhere in the website the data is parsed out into the specific topics but all of the data is available for both download and visualization from um the data page so we'll dive into the fuels part first and I'll Orient due to um the navigation around the fuels um within the fuels area there's four options onroad fuels so that's what you would put into a vehicle um blend stocks which are the subcomponents that go into the on-road fuels um as well as Aviation and marine fuel sections previously um we had a combined section that included both lens stocks and on-road fuels but for clarity we have separated that out [Music] um and then diving into the onroad fuels uh there are these five categories gasoline and ethanol um petroleum and biobased diesel fuel natural gas electricity and hydrogen so a a separate page for each of the fuels um within those fuel pages you'll notice that we've uh kind of categorized the um the data sets in terms of whether they represent um Market or modeled data and also whether they represent kind of a a current volume a high volume or a low volume case um and then uh future versus current scenarios so this um text on this slide is directly from the definitions page of the ATB that defines um what what each of these scenario types mean um and one thing that you'll notice is that the the fuel scenarios are uh static in time so they are snapshots they are not trajectories um and and so that's why this current versus futured distinction is important um and and that uh feature of the scenarios is important to remember when interpreting uh charts that use the fuels um for vehicles So within each of the fuels Pages um for the on-road fuels uh you'll see different types of charts um that are available and uh the the drop-down menus that are shown here enable you to navigate to specific types of data um so these are just kind of snapshots of the the navigation for each of these um onroad types of fuels and I'll I'll jump over to the website itself momentarily um the fuel side of things also includes sustainable Aviation fuels um and uh with a focus on the um ethanol to Jet Fisher tropes and hea as the pathways that are shown um so similar to the on-road fuels the navigation enables you to select the metric that you want to look at as well as the fuel pathway and the the characteristics of um the uh LCA assumptions for the the life cycle assessment of emissions um so kind of diving into these charts uh this is an example of the charts that you'll see for the the on the fuels pages so these are tables um with either emissions uh characteristics if you've selected the emissions metric or Price characteristics if you've selected the price metric in the table and then you can navigate to the specific um class of of uh vehicle that the fuel is intended for um that uh adjusts some some of the assumptions so these charts um can be interactive for you to explore all of the data based on the selection in in these um radial buttons and drop- down menus at the top um so now I'll switch gears to to dive into the vehicle Technologies and we have separate pages for both the light duty vehicles and the medium and heavyduty vehicles um again we have definitions of the scenarios these scenarios are different from the ones on the fuel side so where the the fuel side uh has snapshots in time for either current or future Market or modeled um low volume or high volume these scenar scarios on the vehicle side are um trajectories over time um for advanced mid and constant and what's varying there is the level of optimism about technology advancement over the time period so we have light duty vehicles and medium and heavy duty vehicles within light duty vehicles um we have gasoline diesel natural gas gasoline hybrid plug-in hybrid battery electric fuel cell and then we do have a page where you can compare across the different Power Trains um so as an example on the light duty vehicle side um we have charts like this that show the fuel economy in one chart and the and the modeled vehicle price in the same chart but but with a different selection of the radial button and then you can use the drop-down menus to select the um the class the powertrain and the details of each powertrain uh we in the previous ATB we just had midsized Passenger cars but now as you uh select from the drop- down menu you you'll be able to select other classes of light duty vehicles um so and as you can see these scenarios our time series over the course of the years up to 2050 um and the advanced case in the green will achieve um more advanced technology improvements than the the mid and and constant cases there's important um Watermark notes and notes under um the figures as well as a a full ction on key assumptions that go into the data um on on the pages so a second type of chart that is on the uh vehicle pages is combines levelized cost of driving and and um carbon dioxide emissions and these are together because these metrics draw on both the vehicle assumptions as well as the input fuel assumptions and so so this this chart is a little bit complicated but I'll walk through it and hopefully it will then become clear um so because uh the chart is based on both vehicle and fuel data we have this um side chart that's uh this big green bar shows the full range of characteristics of fuels that can go into that vehicle and then this um black line shows where the particular selection um Falls within that range and on the vehicles Pages we have simplified the choices to include only three the Baseline the lowest carbon dioxide emissions and the lowest cost um the comparison page and the um the compar compon page and the full Tableau workbook on the data page include um additional Pathways so one challenge with this visualization is that you may not be able to navigate to uh the the full range that's shown on the vehicle pages but if you go to the full comparison page then you can select those so it's important to to keep it in mind that these charts are drawing from both vehicle and fuel data um and that you know you you can get different results by making different selections within that choice um the the full Tableau workbook on the data page has lots and lots of options and it can get confusing to navigate and that's why we've um offered simpler options here um um and I'll be happy to answer any questions that folks have about interacting with this chart um during the Q&A session so just to summarize not all the fuel pathways are available in this simplified view um so you can see the data or the fuels Pages for um the full set of fuels that are provided and then the the green bar is the um the range for whatever metric you're displaying for all of the pathways that go into that vehicle then the black bar shows which one has been selected and again these uh these fuel data are snapshots in time so even though the the time series is shown in these vehicle charts that whole range over time is varying only due to the vehicle characteristics the fuel char characteristics going in our constant um this slide shows an example of how the um light duty vehicle comparison page can look um so on that page you're um able to select among different powertrains um and then compare them directly for whichever metric you have chosen on the medium and heavyduty vehicle side of things it's the same kind of structure um medium and heavyduty vehicles are new um but we're using the same sorts of charts and here we have the diesel diesel hybrid plug-in hybrid battery electric uh fuel cell and then an opportunity to compare um and with with the uh main metrics shown here as similar to the light duty side of things um so this uh chart is structured the same as on the light duty side um but here you can select among the medium and heavy duty uh classes and powertrains um the metrics similarly are a choice here between fuel economy and modeled vehicle price for these charts that show um metrics associated with vehicles um and then uh similar to the light duty um the medium and heavyduty vehicle also has these combination charts that combine data from fuels and vehicles the one twist here that's different is that because there is a lot of uncertainty about refueling particularly for fuel cell electric vehicles and for battery electric vehicles we're showing a range that's based on the range of potential um refueling or recharging costs for those vehicles and that that uncertainty um is really in two bins one is that there's uncertainty about what the costs will actually be the other is that these vehicles Encompass a really wide variety of Duty recycles and um usage circumstances and so the charging and refueling costs um for a given size class may still vary a lot depending on what those characteristics are um so uh that's that's the reason for this range um the range is shown it's coming from the the refueling and recharging so it's shown in the fuel price that's the delivered price to the vehicle um and the assumptions surrounding that uh can be explored in ATB and um questions are are welcome about this as well so there is a table um that shows what which specific Pathways for fuels are chosen uh in these vehicle charts to represent the simplified um set of options Baseline lowest cost and lowest emissions um and so you you can uh Trace back to what which assumptions are used for which of those options um this just shows the different ways that um the data is displayed on the website so uh you can see it either within the pages for each of the powertrains or um in the big Tableau workbook on the data page um that has you know all of the the data options there as well um so and and there you can select from some of the other fuel Pathways that aren't shown on the um the technology vehicle powertrain page itself and then um In the comparison page you can also see comparisons across um the the different vehicles in each of the size classes so there's a comparison page for light duty and and then this comparison page for um medium and heavy duty Vehicles a bunch of other important uh sections of the ATB are shown here um So within the about Pages there's just a wealth of information about the definitions and um data sources and assumptions that are going into this um acronyms and and references um as well so I encourage everyone to take a close look at the about Pages if you have detailed questions um and then each web page has um a summary of definitions that are used on that web page as well as key assump assumptions as well as references that are used on um each of the the technology pages so that's kind of an orientation to the overall structure um and then in the data downloads area we have the options to um download the Excel file or a tableau workbook um and then this uh presentation is getting posted there as well um this is kind of the detailed view of the menu driving the Tableau workbook as you can see you can select uh the metric so fuel economy um levelized cost of driving uh emissions um vehicle modeled vehicle price Etc um you can select between light duty and medium and heavy duty all of the Power Trains um it is there there's not uh always full um like restrictions on logical combinations of these things so if you select a light duty um vehicle and then a Powertrain that's only associated with a medium and heavyduty vehicle you might end up with nothing so if you end up with nothing in this view um you'll just want to verify that your selections um are are consistent with each other um so the vehicle scenario gives the constant mid and advanced cases um classes of vehicles powertrain details for things like range um and then primary and secondary fuel pathway uh will get you into the large variety of fuel Pathways beyond that um Baseline lowest cost and lowest emissions so at this point um if there are questions from the chat Daniela or others I'd be happy to post those I'm going to switch my screen share and go over to um the website itself um and just kind of show a little bit of how um the interaction looks there any any questions about the um the website from the chat and please feel free to um we have we have one question that asks can we generate different data within the web page by inputting our assumptions on cost range Etc yeah so um the transportation ATB doesn't um provide those capabilities um you can download the Excel file um and then you know use that as input to calculations and and change inputs um on the elect electricity side of things we have an Excel file that includes calculations and we also have um a corresponding python package that provides all of those calculations programmatically um so that folks could take either of those either the Excel file or the python package and and modify them um as they see fit uh so those capabilities are something that um we could consider and certainly um you know if if you have a recommendation on a specific type of calculation that you would like to be able to do or just a a vote that you'd like to um have access to the the calculations that we're using directly um that would be very welcome feedback uh we do provide in our definitions um specific documentation of all of the calculations that we're doing [Music] um and let's [Music] see um are folks seeing my screen yes okay um so this is the definitions page as you can see there's a lot of information um about things oh I guess maybe the calculation is over on the the actual page NOP here we go so here's an example of a documentation of of um a calculation that we're doing uh so unfortunately at this time you would need to uh set that up yourself but that is feedback that we would welcome um if that's something that would be useful to users uh was there any any other questions there was another web based question but um in reference to I guess the electricity ATV asking um to find the python package on the website and whether we could provide a link to that or or show where it is yeah um so that's just over here in the data downloads um it's this ATB Cal GitHub repo and then we do have a recording um of a webinar to orient folks to that um so rest our content specific so you can go ahead with the website and then we can revisit those okay um yeah so you know kind kind of like the overview that I provideed from the slides um but in more interactive mode [Music] um you can so that oh I think we're experiencing a bit of audio issues on your end just one moment can you hear me can you hear me now I can yes okay to having other questions [Music] um oh I think we're but in this case um you'll the vehicle metrics for fuel economy and modeled vehicle price um where you can toggle between them um and um also select from the drop-down menus [Music] um and then the other chart um that we also discussed in the presentation is the the one that combines the vehicle and fuel metrics um so here you can look at either levelized cost of driving or emissions um and then also select among fuel Pathways vehicle scenarios class um and powertrain details if there are some there um so that's just a quick overview of the vehicles pages and then on the fuels side of things we have the different fuels um diving in that's the scenario definition and then you can go into um particular fuels areas and see the tables with the the characteristics of the fuels um controlling what you see by the the menus um so at this point I would like to um kind of switch gears and uh jump over to some Q&A um so please put your questions in the chat um and Daniela did you have um a starting point yeah I have a few we to ask um also it your audio did cut out a little bit during the vehicles Pages part I don't know if you want to just like click on that one again just to brief summary of what you mentioned when you were going over the vehicles pages okay sure um so on the vehicles Pages as I discussed before there's a page for light duty and another page for medium and heavy duty with um specific Pages for each of the powertrains so you can dive into those and then it's centered around these two chart types one for the vehicle metrics that shows fuel economy and modeled vehicle price that can be controlled um with the radial buttons and the drop-down menus to select the metric the class the powertrain and and any sub details on that um and then the other chart with the um combined vehicle and fuel metrics uh levelized cost of driving and and carbon dioxide emissions that rely on inputs from both the vehicle and the fuel um and similarly there you can select um the the options with the radial buttons and the drop-down menus that you want to see um the the classes um Powertrain details um vehicle scenario fuel pathway and metrics um okay so let's let's turn to Q&A now perfect um yeah I can ask a few um this one says do you plan to include estimates for sustainable Aviation sin fuels made from hydrogen from electrolysis and CO2 from direct air capture in the future yeah so with each update we assess what fuels we can include um those are both likely candidates but um we kind of have to go through our review and decision process in terms of um you know what what we can take on in any given update so uh sorry that that's not a more definitive answer but um that's kind of where we're at but but those are certainly of interest and and likely candidates for consideration awesome um another one says are you considering full scope and long-term marginal emissions what sort of data would help create an even an even more accurate picture yeah so that's a great question um I would like to bring on one of our greet experts to address that question um so let's see I guess I'm not seeing who's online I think uh we sung are are you um willing to feel that and come on screen and and if you if you're able and answer that one can you hear me yes so the question maybe on the electricity I guess right can can the person confirm what the emission uh the margin emission actually means because the the currently the emissions that we include is the life cycle emissions of the all the fuels and then electricity and hydrogen so it's the consistent with a grid uh the scope of the emission accounting but I'm not quite sure about the the long-term marginal emissions that the person ask is about great if the user um who asked about that wants to submit a follow-up question to clarify um the long-term marginal missions then we son can follow up and answer uh yeah I think the I see the electricity and want to three so for now it's up to I think Laura and the team whether we want to expand the emissions to cover scope one to three emissions for the electricity or other things but for now it's about the life cycle emissions uh but for the plans for the ATB it's up to the team I'm sure and maybe for everyone's benefit do you want to define the different Scopes okay so this is ang can you hear me yes yes okay so on the marginal emission question this will require um grid modeling to know which unit will be dispatched for a marginal load right and if you if you do that which will be very unique to each region to each time frame to how many vehicles you deploy right so to decide how much electricity which unit will be dispatched and all of that is somewhat uncertain can be modeled but very tedious number one and number two uh it will be hard to justify why to use a marinal emission only for EVS and not use it for others for example so so this is why we shy away from marginal emissions it can be done but as you go through electrification of different loads buildings Vehicles industry among others which one is in the margin which one is in the average will be tricky so so this is the answer for that the other question was on what remind me there was a followup question um he submitted a followup question do you think a lack of full emission scope gives electricity a favorable Outlook yes yes yes yes okay emission Scopes so scope one two three so usually these are from organization perspective that you could look at emissions you see this is scope one this is scope two this is scope three right scope one is within my facility boundary scope two is electricity and scope three is everything else in greet we do not do that we try to do that but we Shi away again from that because it doesn't it is good from again organization reporting perspective to understand their footprint versus what they Source uh from a life cycle in general uh we try to split it into two basically direct facility emissions scope one and then scope two and three are lumped together we can always disaggregate scope two from three uh but again um if this is needed we can do it uh for that purpose but again it will be tricky to to dissect the life cycle emission into scope two and three in particular uh because C to will be strictly the power generation emissions or the steam it is the utility basically you purchase and then you will have to account for the supply chain to this so it can be done if needed and if it is deemed important but usually this is important only from organization perspective super thank you so much um God and and I think the other aspect that's this question highlights that's really important is that ATB is a a kind of a summary entry point to a whole lot of data and information but ATB in and of itself is not kind of a full analysis like a scenario analysis of everything that you might want um to know about many of those items so the the kind of analysis that omod was talking about might take ATB inputs or or share ATB inputs um but there's certainly a lot more Beyond ATB so I think it's important you know as you approach ATB to to be very aware of what it is and what it isn't and and this is a a great example of one of the places where ATB just P provides kind of a an entry point and an initial summary around the emissions but there's much much more um detail and and ranges and you know understanding that could be gleaned from a more comprehensive analysis um Daniela I'm thinking of running through quickly the uh the open questions and then maybe um everybody who has answered a question our panelists who've answered a question if you would like to um raise any of those that that seem important so the first one I'm seeing on the open questions is um can you please explain the reasoning for not projecting future fuel costs as compared to the vehicle costs which you do project um so that's really based on um the type of of information that we have about fuels and the um fact that there's a lot of uncertainty about adoption rate and a lot of interdependence um of the the fuel prices with the adoption and the learning that might happen and the infrastructures that might be needed and kind of those whole systems um so and and we do um have under consideration methodologies to apply those uh those snapshots in time along with those other considerations um to uh to to to produce the [Music] um the full series trajectory but um we haven't done that yet uh it looks like there's some problems with my display it was just um showing the the slides as opposed to the presentation mode um so you can reshare if you want to have presentation mode back sorry no worries good to go um you'll have to reshare oh yeah I just I turned it off to be safe but I don't I maybe I'll just um it's fine run through the questions and then uh okay um how often do you update the predictions um that's really dependent on um our data availability staff availability um review timing so we do have the word annual in the annual Technology based line name um we do update the electricity Pro projections every year and have that down to a a a system um I I think that on the transportation side we you know this is our second update and we're still um trying to figure out what the appropriate Cadence will be for the assumptions um and could you run some scenarios based on assumptions you provide yes the intention is that these assumptions are intended to contribute to scenario analysis um for uh vehicles and fuel assumptions that may be part of um transportation sectoral modeling analysis or economy wide modeling analysis um that that is the intent uh of course you know any analyst will want to make their own judgments about the the assumptions that we offer here and um certainly may need to adjust um to depending on the objectives of the study um okay how can propane get more representation in this data um and where would a DME blend fit into this data um so I think this kind of goes back to the fact that you know as we set out to do an update we need to review all of the fuels and all of the vehicles and the data that's available and the um priorities and our role um as uh you know expressing our understanding of Technology R&D um and so all those considerations go in um uh and and um both of those fuels could be added um I think you know there there's just always questions about um how many to do and and what the priorities are um okay um question on comparison of bevs with solar PV and a stationary battery providing charging electricity [Music] um with diesel at expected prices okay so um one of the electricity options um is a dedicated Renewables option um and I think it is based on solar PV um so I if the if the person answering asking that question has trouble uh identifying that um in the data please reach out but I do think that that that data is there um okay aviation fuels with battery Electric solar PV skinned aircraft um we do not have battery electric aircraft at this time um some of those emerging Technologies for aircraft are certainly of great interest um but that's not something that we have in scope right now my apologies um and uh okay so here's a question about cambium data uh which so the cambium data set is over on the electricity side of things um on the enal website if you search on cambium it should come up um that is certainly a source of long-term marginal emissions for the electricity sector scenarios that have been analyzed in the um the enal regional deployment System model uh there are you know certainly others that would be based on other electricity sector capacity expansion scenarios um and if uh more information is needed we can we can dive into that offline um at this point I'd like to open the floor to other panelists who want to address any of the answers that have already been answered online if if folks would like to um voice those answers and bring them to the attention of the the full group um that would be welcome so uh any of the panelists like to come on camera and um highlight some of the discussion that has already been addressed in the chat like you um you got to most of them okay um well maybe I will just wrap up briefly [Music] um are you folks seeing my presentation screen again yes okay um so I I wanted to thank everyone for joining today and just be sure that you are all aware if you would like to um receive notices of future updates both to the trans transportation and the electricity ATB either one um there is a link uh to register um we will not contact you um very frequently it would be more like maybe four times a year um that something gets updated uh and um if if you register you'll always be in the know about um events on the on the ATB front um like to acknowledge our sponsors at the US Department of energy across the sustainable Transportation offices as well as the Strategic um analysis office and want to thank all of the panelists and all of the attendees um really appreciate uh the opportunity and and hope that this resource will be useful to you um please don't hesitate to pose any questions um on the the ATB um question link and um look forward to uh the next update and providing this information um on an ongoing basis so thanks so much and um with that I think our ATB update webinar is concluded
2023-12-23 04:33
