Will Inflation Kill the Bull Market? How to Make Money Trading Week of Sept 19

Will Inflation Kill the Bull Market? How to Make Money Trading Week of Sept 19

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hi everybody it's dennis the active trend trader  are you one of the traders has a difficult time   finding great growth stocks to trade every weekend  well we've got the answer welcome to how to make   money trading stocks and options we're going to  cover three things our panel of expert traders   has picked out three top shelf growth  stocks that are setting up and ready   potentially to trade next week number two an  analysis of the indexes showing which ones   are strongest which ones are weakest and what  the potential is for a move next week and then   we'll also cover another trading problem  or issue that you may be having and   we'll provide an answer to that that will help you  one maximize your profits and minimize your losses   so let's get into today's session right so okay  good afternoon everybody this is dennis wilburn   the active trend trade i want to welcome you  to today's session of how to make money trading   stocks and options plus some trading tips um i  want to welcome both steve and neal uh guys we uh   we're basically the market looks like it wants to  maybe soften up a little bit we'll take a look at   the charts uh i'm not in a you know i'm i'm not  enough panic because i've been in cash for a week and that's one of the things you have to  remember that uh for my own personal account   i've been in cash uh we have been trading also  with our active trend trading folks i am not   quite about 50 invested there and so um we'll  check in with anil and steve very shortly about   where they're at with their uh investments  uh before we get going i wanna just remember   that you know remember patience persistence  and profits i i forgot to add the other p   in here which is planning i did make a  really good post it basically said that planning and hard work lead to  prosperity but shortcuts lead to poverty   and that is one of the ancient proverbs and it's  absolutely on the mark uh oftentimes in trading   some of the things that attracts people to  trading is that the the the the basic is the   allure of well it's got to be easy so i can  make easy money and i can tell you you know i   i know enough of a neil story enough and a steve's  story enough i know i know enough of my story that   trading may be simple but  it sure as heck ain't easy absolutely so so you want to maximize your profits  minimize your losses basically you're in the right   place because active trend training is proven  and clear and simple system focused on helping   you trade your way to wealth and financial freedom  my objective every year is to hit 40 percent roi   uh with a 65 win loss ratio that gives me my  edge and knowing this if i can count on that   and i've averaged over the last 10 years  about 37 so i've come pretty darn close um until i actually um you know come very close to  needing that uh so uh let's see what we want to do   to for you today is basically save you some time  in your review we're going to do a market review   we've got some great stocks we have two great  stocks and we're going to look at them from a   little bit different perspectives today and one  etf that um uh that steve's bringing to us this   is our first etf steve you are basically launching  the maiden voyage of providing etfs to potentially   trade so congratulations thanks to eric actually  we've had conversations over the past and   it's looking really really great as a as a setup  yeah an area an area to set up okay well don't   don't let the cat out of the bag yeah sure so hey  remember that all the materials we uh present are   for training purposes traders should always paper  during any new method prior to the risk of their   own personal capital past performance is not an  indication or a promise of future performance   that's the side here so here's where we're sit  this is where we're sitting this is where we   were sitting actually it's today and that didn't  click in there uh the right way and that's okay um the uh but you know as i kept telling  everybody we were you know as we kind   of trailed the markets through the year because  the markets jumped up and you've got to remember   very quickly and hit some of the 20 in in some of  their highs for the years and they're all showing   over 20 earlier in the year and i said that's  okay i'm just going to keep doing what i do   trusting my system and that it would overtake  the markets by the end of the year as you can see   that repeating your you know trading a system  with an edge is doing that um my projected   projection right now is to be at 40 somewhere  between 40 and 60 by the end of the year   and with that i'll be very pleased and so um  with that let's take a look at the indexes   because i know you everybody is can hardly wait  you're going to be really shocked when you see   this uh particular entities that we're going to be  looking at and the projection of how we're going   to be looking at them so what do we have going on  now well we've got a projection here let's take a   real quick look at the fib from and i'm going  to take the fifth from basically here to here and as you can see we're breaking down  through the lower level of the fib box   the magic fib box the 38 to the 618 retracement  we're coming really close to the 78 retracement we want to be on guard the eight  day is crossing below the 20 day   that now can turn into some really nice resistance   and so uh i would be looking for a you know if  i close below the 50 i'm looking for a pullback   probably pretty darn close to uh 100 retracement  what does that start setting up for us if we get   that well what that starts setting up for us is  the potential of a uh head and shoulder side top would that be in one shoulder that means the head  um and this is not a head and shoulders because   this uh shoulder over here is above the head  if you can see that would be the head but a   shoulder here head here and if we come back down  and push back up apply just some basic you know   classical technical analysis if we  come down here and get a reversal   i'm not saying don't take that trade because  we never know if that's going to be you know   they're going to blow up and just continue to  roll higher but this is the first time if we   close where we're at in a while that the eight  is closing a matter of fact it's going back   all the way to here which was in march time  frame where the eight closed below the the um   the 20 but as you can see it didn't stay down  there long that's that's one of the things   short and shallow have been the corrections so  anyway that's uh what's going on with the s p   again i'm not you know i do not have a signal to  buy yet uh i do not have a you know i basically   on any kind of a pullback up into levels of past  resistance i would ex you know at least entertain   going into a short position and that's fine i  didn't lose a meal dinner okay let me go back in ah okay uh cues what's going on with the  nasdaq again nasdaq significant sell-off   and we've had you know multiple sell-offs here  in a row however where we're coming to stop   that we're trying to stop right at the uptrend  line that's positive the steeper up trend line   now it could break and look over here on the  weekly chart we could break that steeper line   and actually still be within the longer term  uptrend um with this line here there's another   uptrend if you want to be looking at this over the  weekend that you can actually go back to this uh   april march of 2020 and extend that up and find  some lows there let's see there's one right there   extend that up to the right and what do we have  actually we're breaking that longer term trend   line with a and if we get a close below that let  me get rid of some of this stuff so that you can   see that is that this may result in  a push down you know push down lower   we're well above the 50 well above the 30  you know we're at the 34 and so this could   be just a simple i'm going to come back down to  somewhere between the 34 and the 50 and rebound   uh again i'm seeing guys i'm seeing this classic  topping type of or or not copying as much as   tiredness in the market and and oftentimes what  you'll see is you'll see a move down we test the   20. a move down we test the 34. now is this move  down here going to test the uh the 50 we'll see   but that's the jackhammer effect that gets these  moving averages to start turning over right now   what i'm looking on the q's i will look to  trade the cues to the long side simply because   uh it basically responds best uh to trading  to the upside um and over you know over the   history of the indexes since the nasdaq came  around the cues tend to perform better than   the other ones and so if i need to be long  i would look for a potential lung there   with that said i also have to  remember though based on seasonality based on seasonality we know that the  russell is represented by iwm here   that russell tends to outperform the indexes of  the other two indexes tracking indexes during the   months of october november december and sometimes  going all the way into uh january and february   occasionally in the march vote it has a window  there when it tends to outperform and it kind   of like our rupple still skin goes back to sleep  and just kind of lets things happen right now iwm   we uh we basically the moving  averages are crossed down   we are below the 100 day moving average we're  both the the eight the 20 the uh 50 and the 34   here's the 200 day down here we're in the middle  of the fifth box that's from the move from left   here up to here and so you know is it time to  get short and trade this to the downside ah you know i you know at this particular point  i'm going to say probably not i would look if   i was going to try to get short this it would have  been better to get it at the moving averages i'm   looking for a again a preparation going into the  end of the year a prep that this will come back   come down find some support and then rebound from  there now we had a well that up that's not now   that's almost a piercing line right there which  is a bullish reversal but what i want to show   you is that was a bullish reversal candlestick  however my momentum indicators have not crossed up   yet so therefore i have not had a total change in  momentum and while yes we did stick our head above   this trend line i can now redraw this trend  line let me go ahead and grab that activate it   and let's i think i can reach out yeah i can  reach out to those past highs right there and   that becomes kind of like it it actually makes a  less steep uh trend line which is a better thing   anyway better for us in that steep trend lines  tend to get busted a lot and so we'll be looking   for that to basically it basically they may bounce  between the 100 and the 200 and it may ping pong   between there and that may happen for several  days and or weeks and then we jump into the   again i anticipated on what tends to happen  once we jump into the october november december   time frame i you know i if i get the sig  the proper signals i would be a buyer of   iwm expecting a nice move going into the end of  the year a nice uh sometimes uh stuff your uh   stuff your uh [ __ ] chris yes that's it  stuff you're stalking with sorry about that   so what do you think guys you know there's there's  well right now i'm in i'm in a pot you know i'm   in a weight weight mode um i will take downside  trades on iwm and s p i prefer taking long trades   longer term trades on news to the upside once i  get a signal and right now i don't have a signal i pretty much agree with what you're saying  although i must say i got very bullish on based on   wednesday's and yesterday's price action  and and from the recent highs i had slowly   taken off trades i'd gone from fully invested in  right after labor day to about 30 percent invested   uh as of yesterday not as of tuesday  and then wednesday thursday i saw it as   little bit early but but you know reversal  coming into the market and i got fully invested   in those two days so i was back at 100 of my  cap of my cash not not 100 of the cash but of   the cash i want to deploy right in one time  um i was fully invested but today's action   really surprised me it threw me for a loop and  i'm gonna i'm certainly gonna be taking some   trades off today a lot of the recent entries  are now signaling exit so i'm in a downsize   mode i'm going to take trades off until we get  more of a strong reversal then i'll start to   trades back in but i'm basically in a liquidation  mode and i'm probably going to take off 15 to 20   percent of my trades by the end of the day today  okay great daniel i got stopped out quite a bit uh   i think roughly uh 30 percent invested yeah  okay yeah how how much you invest right now 30 about 30 yeah yeah so yeah i like i said i i'm  um the uh there's just nothing there and one of   the things i've been doing in some of my studies  and i'm writing writing uh my book about is that   uh this essence of waiting for your momentum to  actually shift and get across absolutely critical   because you know i've seen i see too many people  prematurely jumping into trades even if they   have a a technical candlestick reversal pattern if  your momentum is not reversing also in crossing up   you are putting yourself in for a you know you're  looking the probability of that being a successful   trade is much less than if you wait for the  momentum to actually show you that it shifted   i agree but for me it's a delicate balance you  know part of being taking low risk trades is to   try to get in early at lower prices but there's a  trade-off you know if you get into early you then   also increase the probability of not being  successful well i i steve i agree with that   concept however if a person okay if a person  like in this pattern right here if they're   buying right up against the moving averages  there that is not a high probability tree yeah   even though we've had the reversal now if they're  buying right here at the at the 50 retracement on   the fibs yeah it's a little bit better because  they're really close to being able to stop out   jumped up right yeah you got a lower registration  as a result yeah we agree wholeheartedly now   then we can throw in the probability you know  the potential you know if the momentums have not   shifted up though yeah yes i agree i'm not saying  it's a bad trade i'm just saying the probability   of being successful is a little bit less right and  so okay let's take a look at the entities that we   the guys have here i love this stock i've  been talking about this stock from anneal so as they say with the ghostbusters  and neil how you going to trade this uh   i'm i'm buying it here right  here right now roger that and uh stopping that's roughly where your redline dotted  line is okay yeah it's about i'm a little bit   about four percent cool   that that works for me where's your upside target  up here back up to the past highs yeah it's uh   around 140 to 145 area okay so are you doing any  of the uh extensions to the upside uh utilizing   fibonaccis for to get your second target uh no  i'm just following my triple screen system and decide how long to hang on okay okay so  yeah i know that you know if i if i can   just use your your stock as an example i know  one of our members really loves to use the uh um let me grab this right here put it down to there and what this does is it  projects upward and uh there is a high probability   that if if we get a position here that it's  going to jump up here and hit at least the one   two seven two also and in the highest so if you  take off some profit approaching this past high   and then uh that gives you some additional  targets and if you're using that technique   i encourage you to back it off a little  bit like right there my one two seven two   is at one fifty three thirty seven i would  say hey if i get the one fifty two fifty   take me out of the ten you know take me  off for a profit it'll be a nice profit   especially if you're in from where you're at so  that's just another exit technique that works out   really well because of that i think you're  about 12 13 almost 14 new so okay steve   good pick and neil i like it i mean i know too  it's an excellent looking chart steve wants to   do a leveraged etf a levers etf now he was  talked into this yeah and i know by who yeah   by eric um who should be on board um we've  had conversations for quite some time now   at various times and he he sent me a reminder  about this this setup it's something i've been   watching but kind of got off my radar yeah i like  where it's located i'm not particularly interested   in taking a trade today given the market action  today i i've reversed my bullishness that   i had gone through in the last two days yeah  but nonetheless i think this is at a very   good location we've just made new highs we're  pulling back into the fit box as long as i see   a reversal pattern and it's not yet occurring  well it occurred but it's being reversed right when we get the upside reversal i'd be  you know very much interested in taking   alongside trade my caveat with  these i want the market to also   indicate to me that the general market  is also back on its legs toward the right right now it's it's don't know what it's  going to do yeah agree wholeheartedly so   let me ask eric eric did you buy it right  here bouncing off the uh 50 retracement see if he jumps in and tells us maybe he's not here i know he's  sure okay trying to unmute him hello eric yeah yeah it was giving me a wouldn't  let me talk i was muted uh yeah i was i was   already in and uh you know i'm i'm looking for the  127 fib extension to uh ultimately take me out so where did you get it get  in eric i got in at the um   move the earlier move up i i was yeah i was  close to there over here yeah i'm already up 36   in this position okay and and eric is doing  exactly that and uh taking you know projecting   i'm gonna project down have you ever already  projected this one down hold on a second   no i have not uh i'm gonna project down from the  high to the low what that does and then that gives   you your projection up to the upside and i really  like that technique i like that both techniques   because they can um and so eric's utilizing now  have you taken off any profit at all yet eric   uh not quite yet uh what most people are not  discussing today is today is quadruple witching   day yeah and and therefore today's action is  not surprising and i anticipate that today's   action would occur i see that it's nothing but  positive but that's just me yeah as long as we   as long as we hold eric i agree with you as long  as we hold so my expectations is that we will hold   yeah yeah and so eric is utilizing against  measuring the fibonacci from this high to this low   here's your one two seven two extension and  that is a very very good technique guys and   uh you know i don't know if eric puts in a his  actual target to exit a little bit before that   so he exits on strength or he wants his price  action to blow through it but it it provides a uh   uh an objective area to get out you can really  divide it so it's not subjection it's not you   know willy-nilly feel you know feeling it it gives  these uh fibonaccis they define you know even if   you can't see them they define you know it's not  a place yet to find really excellent levels of   potential support and resistance  on the future so thanks very much i'm sorry i would answer i'm sorry steve  i don't know one at a time guys come on   my ex is just one short of the one two  seven i want to be taken out on strength   right and and i'm not yet in this  trade but i would be entering   i i was ready to enter today but given  the market action and potential reversal   it is triple witching or quadruple witching um  so i'm not taking the trade today but i would   enter above today's high on monday if if we  end up holding the market doesn't trade lower   i would go in above to two days high on monday  that's my way of entry with with some buying   basically some evidence of buyers  coming in that's taking the price higher and the stop would be under two days low excellent my turn guys i like to the upside i  like uh hol x maybe for a return back to the 80   level at the same time i don't like hllx because  it is basically now below the 8 to 20 and it looks   like the 8 and 20 are going to cross with that  said would i buy it right where it's at it is   at a level of past support and so if i did take a  trade on this bullish engulfing my stop loss would   be just below the um i'll give you the number  it'd be my stop loss would be at 76 dollars and   44 cents that's yesterday's low yes yesterday yeah  about a dime below below yesterday's low things   are turning up on it i the the the one thing  this is a lower probability trade if i take it to   the upside because why because my tsi and my  momentums have not shifted up to the upside yet   and so anytime you trade just based off of the  candlestick and the level of support without the   finalized move and momentum again uh you could  either do one or two things take a smaller   position or just keep your stop lights acceptably  tight so that's my upside trade now i'm going to   just basically throw out some that i think are  going to basically get again part of this is i'm liking bntx to the downside it has not  totally broken down yet and part of the reason   why i like that is uh uh pfizer's actually  pfizer ceo or one of them says said that   uh the pfizer uh shot is basically waning on  its ability to keep people out of the hospital   uh now that may be offset because of the demand  to take you know booster shots and all that   kind of stuff but um i don't know you know it's  it's one of those situations you could either   look at this and say hey this is positive  to the upside or positive the downside   jim cramer says don't short the uh the uh vaccines  you know uh companies but at the same time um   you know the news coming out about the vaccines  can be a potential negative part and i also like   moderna also which way to the downside now  it's showing again this is kind of like   a cup with handle so it could be that way also but  again my longer term you know the moving averages   the momentum on the weekly charts and started this  shift i have a bearish harami on a weekly chart i   had this shooting the shooting star on the weekly  chart from several weeks ago is still in effect   and so it could go either you know either way i'm  not going to short it yet because i don't have a   total signal to short it i could do a spread based  on trying to do a spread off of the eight-day   moving average but again i have not crossed it  would be much better if i could get a cross of   the eight below the uh below the 50 but i am  looking to trade the back stocks to the downside   and it has nothing to do with other i'm just  looking at the chart and and looking what has   come before so that's what i'm looking at guys  and and i'm on that particular stock i was in on   9-2 but i'm looking at an exit potentially today  so i'm basically in agreement with you on mrna   oh you're looking to trade it to the downside no  no i'm looking to exit i've been long since 19.   yeah and it's signaling and exit for me today so  it's in sync with your thinking about potentially   shorting it yeah i mean you know uh it's like  i said i i you know i think i you know i really   again this is partly opinion this is partly some  of the other stuff that i'm reading but when the   ceo of the company comes out and says hey you  know it's not working as good as what we thought   it was going to work work or something like that  that makes my ears prick up um now will that news   get out to the world who knows we'll see yeah on  facebook and and uh facebook it probably won't   so okay hey there we go let's go ahead and  jump over and get finished everything else   off guys hey if you're not an autopilot uh trading  person you need to be and so you basically go and   jump on board and put your trades on i'll  we give uh basically seven setups per week   um those of you who those members who traded with  us this past week had a really nice run-up in uh   would you get phil you were in on that on uh on  crocs uh we basically jumped on a croc street and   it did has been doing really really well and we're  starting to implement our pyramiding in process   uh therefore in improving enhancing the  probability of you know basically being   able to grow your wealth and also let  your winners run so uh guys hey 2021   just continue to work on your consistency your  discipline your planning for wealth building keep   your egg growing trade well and prosper premium  members will be back out with you at the top of   the hour with the final hour uh we'll be talking  through a few more of the trades we're looking at   and uh steve and anil i just want to say thank  you guys good discussion today you're welcome   my our pleasure thank you really enjoyed  it thanks and so we'll uh we'll catch up   with you guys next week great stock uh choices  today and um so aloha and god bless everybody

2021-09-24 02:10

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