Will Inflation Kill the Bull Market? How to Make Money Trading Week of Sept 19
hi everybody it's dennis the active trend trader are you one of the traders has a difficult time finding great growth stocks to trade every weekend well we've got the answer welcome to how to make money trading stocks and options we're going to cover three things our panel of expert traders has picked out three top shelf growth stocks that are setting up and ready potentially to trade next week number two an analysis of the indexes showing which ones are strongest which ones are weakest and what the potential is for a move next week and then we'll also cover another trading problem or issue that you may be having and we'll provide an answer to that that will help you one maximize your profits and minimize your losses so let's get into today's session right so okay good afternoon everybody this is dennis wilburn the active trend trade i want to welcome you to today's session of how to make money trading stocks and options plus some trading tips um i want to welcome both steve and neal uh guys we uh we're basically the market looks like it wants to maybe soften up a little bit we'll take a look at the charts uh i'm not in a you know i'm i'm not enough panic because i've been in cash for a week and that's one of the things you have to remember that uh for my own personal account i've been in cash uh we have been trading also with our active trend trading folks i am not quite about 50 invested there and so um we'll check in with anil and steve very shortly about where they're at with their uh investments uh before we get going i wanna just remember that you know remember patience persistence and profits i i forgot to add the other p in here which is planning i did make a really good post it basically said that planning and hard work lead to prosperity but shortcuts lead to poverty and that is one of the ancient proverbs and it's absolutely on the mark uh oftentimes in trading some of the things that attracts people to trading is that the the the the basic is the allure of well it's got to be easy so i can make easy money and i can tell you you know i i know enough of a neil story enough and a steve's story enough i know i know enough of my story that trading may be simple but it sure as heck ain't easy absolutely so so you want to maximize your profits minimize your losses basically you're in the right place because active trend training is proven and clear and simple system focused on helping you trade your way to wealth and financial freedom my objective every year is to hit 40 percent roi uh with a 65 win loss ratio that gives me my edge and knowing this if i can count on that and i've averaged over the last 10 years about 37 so i've come pretty darn close um until i actually um you know come very close to needing that uh so uh let's see what we want to do to for you today is basically save you some time in your review we're going to do a market review we've got some great stocks we have two great stocks and we're going to look at them from a little bit different perspectives today and one etf that um uh that steve's bringing to us this is our first etf steve you are basically launching the maiden voyage of providing etfs to potentially trade so congratulations thanks to eric actually we've had conversations over the past and it's looking really really great as a as a setup yeah an area an area to set up okay well don't don't let the cat out of the bag yeah sure so hey remember that all the materials we uh present are for training purposes traders should always paper during any new method prior to the risk of their own personal capital past performance is not an indication or a promise of future performance that's the side here so here's where we're sit this is where we're sitting this is where we were sitting actually it's today and that didn't click in there uh the right way and that's okay um the uh but you know as i kept telling everybody we were you know as we kind of trailed the markets through the year because the markets jumped up and you've got to remember very quickly and hit some of the 20 in in some of their highs for the years and they're all showing over 20 earlier in the year and i said that's okay i'm just going to keep doing what i do trusting my system and that it would overtake the markets by the end of the year as you can see that repeating your you know trading a system with an edge is doing that um my projected projection right now is to be at 40 somewhere between 40 and 60 by the end of the year and with that i'll be very pleased and so um with that let's take a look at the indexes because i know you everybody is can hardly wait you're going to be really shocked when you see this uh particular entities that we're going to be looking at and the projection of how we're going to be looking at them so what do we have going on now well we've got a projection here let's take a real quick look at the fib from and i'm going to take the fifth from basically here to here and as you can see we're breaking down through the lower level of the fib box the magic fib box the 38 to the 618 retracement we're coming really close to the 78 retracement we want to be on guard the eight day is crossing below the 20 day that now can turn into some really nice resistance and so uh i would be looking for a you know if i close below the 50 i'm looking for a pullback probably pretty darn close to uh 100 retracement what does that start setting up for us if we get that well what that starts setting up for us is the potential of a uh head and shoulder side top would that be in one shoulder that means the head um and this is not a head and shoulders because this uh shoulder over here is above the head if you can see that would be the head but a shoulder here head here and if we come back down and push back up apply just some basic you know classical technical analysis if we come down here and get a reversal i'm not saying don't take that trade because we never know if that's going to be you know they're going to blow up and just continue to roll higher but this is the first time if we close where we're at in a while that the eight is closing a matter of fact it's going back all the way to here which was in march time frame where the eight closed below the the um the 20 but as you can see it didn't stay down there long that's that's one of the things short and shallow have been the corrections so anyway that's uh what's going on with the s p again i'm not you know i do not have a signal to buy yet uh i do not have a you know i basically on any kind of a pullback up into levels of past resistance i would ex you know at least entertain going into a short position and that's fine i didn't lose a meal dinner okay let me go back in ah okay uh cues what's going on with the nasdaq again nasdaq significant sell-off and we've had you know multiple sell-offs here in a row however where we're coming to stop that we're trying to stop right at the uptrend line that's positive the steeper up trend line now it could break and look over here on the weekly chart we could break that steeper line and actually still be within the longer term uptrend um with this line here there's another uptrend if you want to be looking at this over the weekend that you can actually go back to this uh april march of 2020 and extend that up and find some lows there let's see there's one right there extend that up to the right and what do we have actually we're breaking that longer term trend line with a and if we get a close below that let me get rid of some of this stuff so that you can see that is that this may result in a push down you know push down lower we're well above the 50 well above the 30 you know we're at the 34 and so this could be just a simple i'm going to come back down to somewhere between the 34 and the 50 and rebound uh again i'm seeing guys i'm seeing this classic topping type of or or not copying as much as tiredness in the market and and oftentimes what you'll see is you'll see a move down we test the 20. a move down we test the 34. now is this move down here going to test the uh the 50 we'll see but that's the jackhammer effect that gets these moving averages to start turning over right now what i'm looking on the q's i will look to trade the cues to the long side simply because uh it basically responds best uh to trading to the upside um and over you know over the history of the indexes since the nasdaq came around the cues tend to perform better than the other ones and so if i need to be long i would look for a potential lung there with that said i also have to remember though based on seasonality based on seasonality we know that the russell is represented by iwm here that russell tends to outperform the indexes of the other two indexes tracking indexes during the months of october november december and sometimes going all the way into uh january and february occasionally in the march vote it has a window there when it tends to outperform and it kind of like our rupple still skin goes back to sleep and just kind of lets things happen right now iwm we uh we basically the moving averages are crossed down we are below the 100 day moving average we're both the the eight the 20 the uh 50 and the 34 here's the 200 day down here we're in the middle of the fifth box that's from the move from left here up to here and so you know is it time to get short and trade this to the downside ah you know i you know at this particular point i'm going to say probably not i would look if i was going to try to get short this it would have been better to get it at the moving averages i'm looking for a again a preparation going into the end of the year a prep that this will come back come down find some support and then rebound from there now we had a well that up that's not now that's almost a piercing line right there which is a bullish reversal but what i want to show you is that was a bullish reversal candlestick however my momentum indicators have not crossed up yet so therefore i have not had a total change in momentum and while yes we did stick our head above this trend line i can now redraw this trend line let me go ahead and grab that activate it and let's i think i can reach out yeah i can reach out to those past highs right there and that becomes kind of like it it actually makes a less steep uh trend line which is a better thing anyway better for us in that steep trend lines tend to get busted a lot and so we'll be looking for that to basically it basically they may bounce between the 100 and the 200 and it may ping pong between there and that may happen for several days and or weeks and then we jump into the again i anticipated on what tends to happen once we jump into the october november december time frame i you know i if i get the sig the proper signals i would be a buyer of iwm expecting a nice move going into the end of the year a nice uh sometimes uh stuff your uh stuff your uh [ __ ] chris yes that's it stuff you're stalking with sorry about that so what do you think guys you know there's there's well right now i'm in i'm in a pot you know i'm in a weight weight mode um i will take downside trades on iwm and s p i prefer taking long trades longer term trades on news to the upside once i get a signal and right now i don't have a signal i pretty much agree with what you're saying although i must say i got very bullish on based on wednesday's and yesterday's price action and and from the recent highs i had slowly taken off trades i'd gone from fully invested in right after labor day to about 30 percent invested uh as of yesterday not as of tuesday and then wednesday thursday i saw it as little bit early but but you know reversal coming into the market and i got fully invested in those two days so i was back at 100 of my cap of my cash not not 100 of the cash but of the cash i want to deploy right in one time um i was fully invested but today's action really surprised me it threw me for a loop and i'm gonna i'm certainly gonna be taking some trades off today a lot of the recent entries are now signaling exit so i'm in a downsize mode i'm going to take trades off until we get more of a strong reversal then i'll start to trades back in but i'm basically in a liquidation mode and i'm probably going to take off 15 to 20 percent of my trades by the end of the day today okay great daniel i got stopped out quite a bit uh i think roughly uh 30 percent invested yeah okay yeah how how much you invest right now 30 about 30 yeah yeah so yeah i like i said i i'm um the uh there's just nothing there and one of the things i've been doing in some of my studies and i'm writing writing uh my book about is that uh this essence of waiting for your momentum to actually shift and get across absolutely critical because you know i've seen i see too many people prematurely jumping into trades even if they have a a technical candlestick reversal pattern if your momentum is not reversing also in crossing up you are putting yourself in for a you know you're looking the probability of that being a successful trade is much less than if you wait for the momentum to actually show you that it shifted i agree but for me it's a delicate balance you know part of being taking low risk trades is to try to get in early at lower prices but there's a trade-off you know if you get into early you then also increase the probability of not being successful well i i steve i agree with that concept however if a person okay if a person like in this pattern right here if they're buying right up against the moving averages there that is not a high probability tree yeah even though we've had the reversal now if they're buying right here at the at the 50 retracement on the fibs yeah it's a little bit better because they're really close to being able to stop out jumped up right yeah you got a lower registration as a result yeah we agree wholeheartedly now then we can throw in the probability you know the potential you know if the momentums have not shifted up though yeah yes i agree i'm not saying it's a bad trade i'm just saying the probability of being successful is a little bit less right and so okay let's take a look at the entities that we the guys have here i love this stock i've been talking about this stock from anneal so as they say with the ghostbusters and neil how you going to trade this uh i'm i'm buying it here right here right now roger that and uh stopping that's roughly where your redline dotted line is okay yeah it's about i'm a little bit about four percent cool that that works for me where's your upside target up here back up to the past highs yeah it's uh around 140 to 145 area okay so are you doing any of the uh extensions to the upside uh utilizing fibonaccis for to get your second target uh no i'm just following my triple screen system and decide how long to hang on okay okay so yeah i know that you know if i if i can just use your your stock as an example i know one of our members really loves to use the uh um let me grab this right here put it down to there and what this does is it projects upward and uh there is a high probability that if if we get a position here that it's going to jump up here and hit at least the one two seven two also and in the highest so if you take off some profit approaching this past high and then uh that gives you some additional targets and if you're using that technique i encourage you to back it off a little bit like right there my one two seven two is at one fifty three thirty seven i would say hey if i get the one fifty two fifty take me out of the ten you know take me off for a profit it'll be a nice profit especially if you're in from where you're at so that's just another exit technique that works out really well because of that i think you're about 12 13 almost 14 new so okay steve good pick and neil i like it i mean i know too it's an excellent looking chart steve wants to do a leveraged etf a levers etf now he was talked into this yeah and i know by who yeah by eric um who should be on board um we've had conversations for quite some time now at various times and he he sent me a reminder about this this setup it's something i've been watching but kind of got off my radar yeah i like where it's located i'm not particularly interested in taking a trade today given the market action today i i've reversed my bullishness that i had gone through in the last two days yeah but nonetheless i think this is at a very good location we've just made new highs we're pulling back into the fit box as long as i see a reversal pattern and it's not yet occurring well it occurred but it's being reversed right when we get the upside reversal i'd be you know very much interested in taking alongside trade my caveat with these i want the market to also indicate to me that the general market is also back on its legs toward the right right now it's it's don't know what it's going to do yeah agree wholeheartedly so let me ask eric eric did you buy it right here bouncing off the uh 50 retracement see if he jumps in and tells us maybe he's not here i know he's sure okay trying to unmute him hello eric yeah yeah it was giving me a wouldn't let me talk i was muted uh yeah i was i was already in and uh you know i'm i'm looking for the 127 fib extension to uh ultimately take me out so where did you get it get in eric i got in at the um move the earlier move up i i was yeah i was close to there over here yeah i'm already up 36 in this position okay and and eric is doing exactly that and uh taking you know projecting i'm gonna project down have you ever already projected this one down hold on a second no i have not uh i'm gonna project down from the high to the low what that does and then that gives you your projection up to the upside and i really like that technique i like that both techniques because they can um and so eric's utilizing now have you taken off any profit at all yet eric uh not quite yet uh what most people are not discussing today is today is quadruple witching day yeah and and therefore today's action is not surprising and i anticipate that today's action would occur i see that it's nothing but positive but that's just me yeah as long as we as long as we hold eric i agree with you as long as we hold so my expectations is that we will hold yeah yeah and so eric is utilizing against measuring the fibonacci from this high to this low here's your one two seven two extension and that is a very very good technique guys and uh you know i don't know if eric puts in a his actual target to exit a little bit before that so he exits on strength or he wants his price action to blow through it but it it provides a uh uh an objective area to get out you can really divide it so it's not subjection it's not you know willy-nilly feel you know feeling it it gives these uh fibonaccis they define you know even if you can't see them they define you know it's not a place yet to find really excellent levels of potential support and resistance on the future so thanks very much i'm sorry i would answer i'm sorry steve i don't know one at a time guys come on my ex is just one short of the one two seven i want to be taken out on strength right and and i'm not yet in this trade but i would be entering i i was ready to enter today but given the market action and potential reversal it is triple witching or quadruple witching um so i'm not taking the trade today but i would enter above today's high on monday if if we end up holding the market doesn't trade lower i would go in above to two days high on monday that's my way of entry with with some buying basically some evidence of buyers coming in that's taking the price higher and the stop would be under two days low excellent my turn guys i like to the upside i like uh hol x maybe for a return back to the 80 level at the same time i don't like hllx because it is basically now below the 8 to 20 and it looks like the 8 and 20 are going to cross with that said would i buy it right where it's at it is at a level of past support and so if i did take a trade on this bullish engulfing my stop loss would be just below the um i'll give you the number it'd be my stop loss would be at 76 dollars and 44 cents that's yesterday's low yes yesterday yeah about a dime below below yesterday's low things are turning up on it i the the the one thing this is a lower probability trade if i take it to the upside because why because my tsi and my momentums have not shifted up to the upside yet and so anytime you trade just based off of the candlestick and the level of support without the finalized move and momentum again uh you could either do one or two things take a smaller position or just keep your stop lights acceptably tight so that's my upside trade now i'm going to just basically throw out some that i think are going to basically get again part of this is i'm liking bntx to the downside it has not totally broken down yet and part of the reason why i like that is uh uh pfizer's actually pfizer ceo or one of them says said that uh the pfizer uh shot is basically waning on its ability to keep people out of the hospital uh now that may be offset because of the demand to take you know booster shots and all that kind of stuff but um i don't know you know it's it's one of those situations you could either look at this and say hey this is positive to the upside or positive the downside jim cramer says don't short the uh the uh vaccines you know uh companies but at the same time um you know the news coming out about the vaccines can be a potential negative part and i also like moderna also which way to the downside now it's showing again this is kind of like a cup with handle so it could be that way also but again my longer term you know the moving averages the momentum on the weekly charts and started this shift i have a bearish harami on a weekly chart i had this shooting the shooting star on the weekly chart from several weeks ago is still in effect and so it could go either you know either way i'm not going to short it yet because i don't have a total signal to short it i could do a spread based on trying to do a spread off of the eight-day moving average but again i have not crossed it would be much better if i could get a cross of the eight below the uh below the 50 but i am looking to trade the back stocks to the downside and it has nothing to do with other i'm just looking at the chart and and looking what has come before so that's what i'm looking at guys and and i'm on that particular stock i was in on 9-2 but i'm looking at an exit potentially today so i'm basically in agreement with you on mrna oh you're looking to trade it to the downside no no i'm looking to exit i've been long since 19. yeah and it's signaling and exit for me today so it's in sync with your thinking about potentially shorting it yeah i mean you know uh it's like i said i i you know i think i you know i really again this is partly opinion this is partly some of the other stuff that i'm reading but when the ceo of the company comes out and says hey you know it's not working as good as what we thought it was going to work work or something like that that makes my ears prick up um now will that news get out to the world who knows we'll see yeah on facebook and and uh facebook it probably won't so okay hey there we go let's go ahead and jump over and get finished everything else off guys hey if you're not an autopilot uh trading person you need to be and so you basically go and jump on board and put your trades on i'll we give uh basically seven setups per week um those of you who those members who traded with us this past week had a really nice run-up in uh would you get phil you were in on that on uh on crocs uh we basically jumped on a croc street and it did has been doing really really well and we're starting to implement our pyramiding in process uh therefore in improving enhancing the probability of you know basically being able to grow your wealth and also let your winners run so uh guys hey 2021 just continue to work on your consistency your discipline your planning for wealth building keep your egg growing trade well and prosper premium members will be back out with you at the top of the hour with the final hour uh we'll be talking through a few more of the trades we're looking at and uh steve and anil i just want to say thank you guys good discussion today you're welcome my our pleasure thank you really enjoyed it thanks and so we'll uh we'll catch up with you guys next week great stock uh choices today and um so aloha and god bless everybody
2021-09-24 02:10
