Weekly Forex Forecast (31/01/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having   a fantastic weekend we're going to build out our  forex trading plan as we always do by having a   quick review of the key events heading into next  week we're then going to look at the scorecards   for the currencies before matching them up with  the individual currencies in the futures markets   and then we're going to move on to the  currency pairs themselves looking at   the best pairs heading into next week before  finishing with stocks gold silver and bitcoin   so with that said let's get into today's video  and if we look at the key events from last week   very quickly we don't need to pay attention to  all this data the two key things to take away   from last week were the interest rate decision  out of canada and the interest rate decision   out of the us the interest rate decision out of  canada meant that the boc kept interest rates   0.25 percent they have inflation heading towards  5 and so this is actually fairly bearish for the   canadian dollar because they have delayed rate  hikes at least for another month or so so although   interest rates remain unchanged because there's  at such low levels you could consider this   a fairly bearish outcome for the cad last week  and if we look at the u.s interest rate decision   last wednesday the fed really just doubled down  on its hawkish stance as a result of that we saw   the dollar rallying and that dollar strength  that we got from the fed meeting last week is   going to play a big part of the forex trading  plan this week if we jump ahead to the upcoming   week you can see we have an interest rate decision  coming out of australia so i do like aussie to the   downside once again this week however this will  be from tuesday onwards because between monday and   tuesday morning the aussie pairs are likely to do  nothing we'll talk about that a bit more when we   look at the charts and we also have coming up next  week an interest rate decision out of the uk on   thursday so likely to bring some volatility into  the markets and also an interest rate decision   out of europe on thursday as well so we have  three interest rate decisions next week so we   have to factor those into the forex trading plan  heading into next week but apart from that you   can see the only other piece of data we have is  non-farm payrolls on the friday and if we go one   more week ahead you can see that after this week  has finished we go into a week pretty much clear   not this coming week but the following week of  any real economic data gives us a clear run at the   currency markets without that volatility risk from  the big key events so when we go through today's   forex trading plan for next week we just have to  keep in mind those three interest rate decisions   coming out next week okay so let's have a look  at the scorecards heading into this week and   for those who are new to the video any score of  plus four means that the market is essentially   in other words overbought and usually gets a  correction to the downside within the next month   any score of minus four means the market is more  or less oversold i don't really like the terms   oversold and overbought because they're kind  of contrarian i like to trade in the direction   of the trend but you could think of it as being  oversold means the market usually takes a breather   and reverses to the upside somewhat over the  next month the score of three is a strong   bias to the upside minus three strong buys to  the downside and if we have a rating of two   that is a bearish bias down here minus two and a  rating of two is a bullish bias and anything which   is between one and zero is generally considered  neutral i don't really have a very strong bias   either to the upside or to the downside now last  week we saw more or less neutrality across the   currency pairs heading into fomc that happens  quite a lot but coming out of fmc you can see   the us dollar is the strongest currency going into  this week with a rating of plus three so i have a   strong bias on the dollar and this is going to  form the bedrock of my forex trading plan next   week to the downside we have the new zealand which  is super weak at minus four i do still like new   zealand shorts but because it's so weak just bear  in mind that we may see a reversal to the upside   in the next few weeks and as a result it means i  prefer currencies such as the australian dollar   to the downside and possibly even the euro to the  downside this week perhaps not the euro because we   have that interest rate decision on thursday so  because of that i would favor new zealand shorts   this week over the euro because the euro might  get corrective between monday and thursday but   certainly australian dollar to the downside is my  favorite short and alongside the us dollar which   is my favorite long i also like pound to the  upside i also somewhat like swiss franc to the   upside because we have a good score of plus  two here however when we go and look at the   individual currencies you can see when we look a  little deeper that this rating of plus two really   is based on the relative strength against other  currencies as opposed to being very very strong   individually the currency itself unlike the  dollar which is individually a strong currency   so to summarize what i'm looking for going into  next week is first and foremost i like dollar long   plays these are my top priority going into next  week i will be looking for australian dollar to   the downside as my favorite short followed by new  zealand to the downside and EurUsd to the downside   i then like to the upside pound aussie followed  by pound new zealand we're also going to look at   and i also like euro pound to the downside  somewhat again that's probably third on my   list after aussie and new zealand because of the  interest rate decision on thursday out of the eu   i also like australian frank to the downside  new zealand frank to the downside euroframe to   the downside we're going to look at today and  also even though we only really have a plus one   rating it's kind of bullish to neutral i do still  like aussie yen to the downside new zealand gen to   the downside and somewhat euro yen to the downside  as well so those are my favorite plays going into   next week and we're going to look at those in  more detail when we look at the currency pairs   but another thing to note here is we also saw a  weakening of the canadian dollar and when we go   and look at crude oil it does look like crude oil  is starting to top out so although the canadian   dollar has not yet turned negative and is a  short just bear in mind we may be at the top   and i don't think canadian long plays are  especially a good idea going into next week   and i am anticipating a reversal to the downside  in both the canadian dollar and also crude oil   and when that happens i would be looking to add  canadian shorts to the list maybe next week or   the week after for those of you who follow this  channel on a regular basis you'll know i'm not   in favor of shorting tops or trying to buy bottoms  i prefer to wait for the reversal to happen and   then get involved so don't be surprised to see  cad shorts back on the watch list over the next   few weeks but for now i'm going to be patient and  i'd much rather focus on the aussie new zealand   shorts and also those euro shorts next week okay  so let's have a look at the individual currency   starting with the dxy and very often these markets  align themselves with what we're looking at in the   scorecards however just like this week you will  see when we go through the individual currencies   it provides us with some more information what's  going on behind the scenes with those scorecards   in terms of the dollar index this is exactly  what the scorecard is showing there is   a bullish bias a strong bullish buyers and we  have rallied to new highs i am looking for any   pullback in the dxy next week for a move into  the 9780 and this move here is what i'm going   to be focused on those long dollar plays so long  dollar setups going into next week are my favorite   setups next is the euro and in terms of the euro  we're really just looking here at the opposite of   what we just looked at in the dx wire we have this  correction which was noted in last week's video   and that counter trend move has finished we had a  break to the downside so any pullback in the euro   is simply viewed as an opportunity to  look for further declines into the 1.10150  

so we are seeing weakness here in the euro just  confirming what we looked at in the scorecards   next is the pound the pound is somewhat bullish  and you can see it's still technically structured   to the upside as it currently stands it does  look like we may be forming an inverse head and   shoulders and coming down is the right shoulder so  i am looking for any break higher in this market   i'm going to be looking first what to the previous  high here and then on to the 1.3829 so as you can   see the pound is somewhat strong but it's not as  strong as the dollar and that's why i favor the   dxy pairs over the pound pairs next week next is  the swiss franc now this is where we start to see   some additional information because the swiss  franc is actually currently scoring plus two   which means compared to all the other currencies  is actually fairly strong however you can see   individually it's not like we just looked at  in the pound of the dollar where the currency   is rallying to the upside this is actually fairly  weak so if you're going to look at long positions   i would prefer the dollar and i'd prefer the pound  long setups over the swiss franc pairs because of   how the swiss franc individually is structured so  overall you can see it's actually fairly choppy   i mean you can take these lows over here and  if anything you could argue that this market   is ranging somewhat but any pullback in the  swiss franc don't be surprised to see further   declines into the 1.0696 and you may be saying  well if the swiss franc declines and sells off   how can you have for example aussie frank going to  the downside because if you have a slightly weak   swiss franc and a very weak aussie dollar you're  still going to see the very weak aussie dollar   decline to the downside against the only fairly  weak swiss franc makes sense so it's all relative   so what this is telling us here is to prioritize  pound long positions and especially dollar   long positions going into next week over swiss  franc long positions next is the japanese yen now   we have the same information here the japanese yen  is currently structured to the downside although   it is somewhat corrective you can see here that  this is kind of technically speaking this is   bearish to neutral but in terms of the scorecard  it's bullish to neutral it means relative to the   other currencies it's kind of slightly bullish so  again the main takeaway of this and looking at the   individual currencies here is just to see that  okay well the yen is not as strong as the pound   it's not as strong as the dollar and therefore if  i am going to be going long a currency next week   i would prefer the dollar then the pound  and then the swiss franc or the japanese yen   and this is especially important when you consider  the swiss franc and also the pound are both scored   as plus two so how do you differentiate which  one is the best well in this case it would be   the pound based on what we're seeing in the  individual currencies in the futures markets   next is the cad now the cad actually weakened  you can see the cad is structured to the upside   here but the canadian dollar actually weakened  it has a little bit of downside momentum   and i would not be surprised to see the canadian  dollar taking out the lows and continuing down   if that takes place this will probably put the cad  back on the short watch list and i'll be looking   once again for short setups in the cad but as  i said i'm not looking for that next week i'd   like to see it break lower i'd like to see the  cad weaken some more and then perhaps in the   subsequent weeks we can look at those cad short  positions so a little bit of patience required on   the cad next is the aussie now look at the aussie  compared to say the japanese and the swiss franc   which will also structure to the downside we  have a really nice sell-off followed by a bear   flag and now we're making new lows we took out  the target set here at the 0.7003 last week and   any pullback in this market next week is viewed as  an opportunity to look for shorts into the 0.6910   and this is actually my favorite short going into  next week and finally we have the new zealand   now the new zealand is very very weak it was on  the short watch list last week and we did take out   the target at the 0.6662 which was highlighted in  last week's video as we have such strong momentum   to the downside this is suggestive of further  declines in the new zealand so what i'd like to   see is any pullback in this currency and i'm going  to be looking further declines into the 0.6490  

and this of course this correction and weakening  would show up in the new zealand pairs such as new   zealand dollar to the downside pound new zealand  to the upside new zealand frank to the downside   new zealand yen to the downside etc so alongside  aussie shorts i do still favor new zealand shorts   as well next week okay so let's move on to the  currency pairs themselves starting with aussie   dollar which is my favorite short going into next  week last week this was a market highlighted as   one of the best pairs and we did come down and  take out the targets at the 0.7007 coming to   this week what i'm going to be looking for is  any pullback in this market is simply viewed as   an opportunity to look for short positions down to  the next kf supports the downside the target set   0.6933 now just bear in mind we do have that  interest rate decision out of australia on tuesday   morning the early hours of tuesday morning and so  what i would prefer to do with all of the aussie   pairs next week is to wait for that interest rate  decision and usually it will do one of two things   it will do something like this if the market is  currently structured to the downside as it is here   we will very often get the market doing nothing  and then on the interest rate decision you get   a spike against the trend which would be this  correction and then what you want to see is you   want to see the market kind of peter out and then  start to reverse to the downside or if the market   corrects into the interest rate decision look for  that break lower on the interest rate decision   and then any correction after that will be  the opportunity to look for shorts once again   so regardless of what happens i am only interested  in short positions in aussie dollar that would   only change on a dramatic rally above the 0.72750  that would be a double bottom reversal but that   seems very unlikely next week why because  inflation in australia is only running about   3.5 percent when you consider in the us it's  coming up to 7 in the uk canada five percent  

and so there is less urgency on the reserve bank  of australia to hike and they have stated in their   previous monetary policy reports that they intend  to keep interest rates low for a sustained period   of time so i do really like aussie dollar  going into next week but just bear in mind   that interest rate decision on tuesday morning  next is new zealand dollar new zealand dollar   was highlighted as one of the best shorts last  week we came down took out the target at the   going into this week i do really like this market  even though the new zealand dollar is somewhat   oversold i still like this and i still think we're  coming down and i have a high conviction target   0.6388 as well so we may be coming down over the  next two weeks in new zealand before we form any   type of bottom or reversal to the upside what  is really nice about new zealand is you can see   we broke out of this correction with momentum  and this is indicative of further decline to   the downside so i'd like to see a pull back  first and any pullback in this area will be   viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts  into the 0.6491 and then on to at some point   either next week or the following week into the  0.6388 so new zealand dollar highlight is one   of my favorite opportunities next week next  is euro dollar now of course with a stronger   us dollar we had that sell off to the downside we  took out both targets to the downside highlighted   in this market this was a post fomc opportunity  last week i did say last week just as i'm saying   this week with the australian interest rate  decision to wait for the fed meeting on wednesday   and then look to enter this position based on  what was said and of course the fed doubled down   on their hawkishness so we saw that selloff to  the downside so going into this week i do favor   further declines in euro dollar it is highlighted  as one of my favorite pairs any pullback any kind   of bare flag pattern in this area will be viewed  as an opportunity to look further declined into   the 1.10650 next is crude oil now crude oil is  technically structured to the upside we did come   and take out the target set last week at the 88  750 and that was pretty much the high of the week   in crude oil something to remember is that crude  oil and the canadian dollar tend to move together   and we saw a weakening of the canadian dollar  last week and that's as crude oil is starting to   run out of steam we may come up there is a little  bit more of a gap to the 90.70 but in all honesty   in my opinion the downside risk in crude oil is  greater now than the upside potential and i would   personally prefer to stay away from crude oil long  positions as it currently stands and because the   canadian dollar is slightly bullish to neutral but  weakening you can see it doesn't even make any of   the currency pairs anyway so i wouldn't actually  be surprised see crude oil topping out in the near   term and seeing the canadian dollar turn into  a decent short over the next few weeks next is   pound aussie now pound aussie is structured to the  upside and you can see and it just changes back to   the four hours you can see that pound aussie  has broken out of this near-term correction   and we've broken out with some nice momentum  so we do have both an australian interest rate   decision and a pound interest rate decision  next week so what i would like to see here is   having broken out of this near-term correction  is on tuesday if we get the australian interest   rate decision and for whatever reason we see the  market pulling back and then between tuesday into   thursday i'm going to be looking for this move  higher if you go along somewhere in this area   after the interest rate decision out of australia  tuesday morning and the market rallies into   the interest rate decision on thursday there's  nothing wrong with booking profits on pound aussie   before the uk interest rate decision rather  than risking say this much to the target   and have it move in the opposite direction on  the interest rate decision so i do like pound   aussie to the upside but you kind of had to  thread the needle a little bit between the   australian interest rate decision on tuesday  and the uk interest rate decision on thursday   next is pound new zealand now with pound new  zealand we only have the interest rate decision on   thursday out of the uk so what i would like to  see here is between monday and the interest rate   session any pullback in this market any ball flag  would be viewed as an opportunity to look further   advances into the 2.06 11 or if we get a nice  rally into the interest rate decision you can  

look again at booking profits before the interest  rate decision next is euro pound now this is not   highlighted as one of the best plays next week  we do have the interest rate decision on thursday   out of europe and also the uk so it's on the same  day so i think what we're likely to see in this   market is not much happen until those interest  rate decisions and then we'll probably going to   get quite volatile moves sort of on thursday but  any pullback in this area if the market corrects   all week and then on thursday we get to sell off  i am going to be looking at further declines into   the 0.8284 i prefer pound new zealand and pound  aussie and this is not highlighted as one of my   favorite ones although euro pound to the downside  is viable based on what we're looking at in the   scorecards next is aussie frank ozzy frank was  a market highlighted to the downside last week   this was marcus actually shorted i tweeted out  right after fmc i have initiated shorts in aussie   frank and aussie yen into the end of the week and  both of those paid very nicely coming into this   week any pullback in this market is going to be  viewed as an opportunity to further declines into   the 0.6416 remember we have the interest rate  decision on tuesday and just as we discussed   with aussie us dollar i am going to be looking  to play this the same way so pull back into the   interest rate decision and then you get the break  to the downside look for further advances to the   downside or further declines i should say or  if the market just does nothing and then spikes   on the interest rate decision on tuesday look for  the market to roll over and fade to the downside   next is new zealand swiss franc new zealand  swiss franc came took out the high conviction   target that i've had from previous videos  0.608.70 coming into this week i do still like   shorts to the downside any pullback in this market  although i prefer the dollar pairs any pullback in   this market is still viewed as an opportunity  to look for further declines down to the 0.6033 next is euro franc not one of my favorite plays  but is still a viable play we've already taken   out the targets at the 1.0312 and we bounced from  this area so any breakdown in this market will be   viewed as an opportunity to look for the 1.0312  once again and if we can break through here the  

next target to the downside although it may take  a couple of weeks because there's a bit of a   gap here is going to be if we can break through  here down at the 1.0234 so i do favor eurofrank   to the downside but i prefer aussie frank to the  downside new zealand frank to the downside instead   of eurofrank and finally we have the yen pairs  aussie yen to the downside as i said i tweeted   out after fmc this was a market i shorted after  that based on what was said in the fed meeting   into the end of the week we did have a really  nice sell-off any pullback going into this week   is viewed as an opportunity to once again look for  bearish reversals down to the next key of support   to the downside the target set 79.97 again  interest rate decision out of australia i've   already explained with aussie frank and aussie  dollar how i'd like to play the aussie pairs   new zealand yen i do have a high conviction target  at the 74.83 so very simply put any pullback in   this market next week is viewed as an opportunity  to look for bearish reversals or short positions   into the 7483 if we get a breakthrough here  i would be looking down towards 73.79 but  

who knows if we come down to this area because  the new zealand is rating at minus four it is   suggesting we may get to pull back at some point  however i do think the 7483 is a high probability   target in this market and finally euro yen so  i don't favor it as much as i like aussie and   new zealand yen however you can see we are  correcting in this market so very simply put   any pullback in this market is still viewed as  an opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down towards the next key of support to the  downside which in this case is the one two   seven point three one so i do prefer oz again  and new zealand yen but euro yen is also viable   we do have the interest rate decision on thursday  out of the eu so i would really like to see this   moving into that interest rate decision and  then be out of this before that interest rate   decision takes place later in the week okay  so moving on to stocks gold silver and bitcoin   now in last week's video i was bearish on  stocks and we came down took out the targets   and you can see i have not updated this  chart there's a very good reason for this   this week the stock market analysis is going to  be patience is going to be wait and see because   although last week we did come down and we took  out the targets if you come look at the nasdaq   we took out the target set if you come look at  the dow jones we took out the target set if you   look at the russell we took out the target to the  downside and this is where we're currently sitting   going into this week we have a special set  of circumstances we have had a big sell-off   to the downside and we are also still technically  bearish in stocks the reason however i am taking   a patience and a wait-and-see approach to this  is because i do believe we are at potentially   the lows of this near-term correction in the stock  market i did tweet out on the 24th of january when   we hit the lows down here in the nasdaq that i did  believe there's a very good chance this is the low   and if this is the low in the nasdaq and if this  is the low in the spx and if this is the low in   the dow jones and if this is the low in the  russell although i must say the russell looks   a little bit more bearish than the other markets  here but if these are in fact the lows then any   short positions in this area are going to be very  risky because we also have height and volatility   and so any bounces could be very volatile and  i don't think at this point it's a great idea   to be shorting into these bounces here what i  would like to see in the stock market if this   really is going to be the low of the spx before  we start to rally and don't forget markets are a   discounted mechanism so we had that sell-off into  fomc we then get a hawkish fed and the opposite   happens we start to bounce to the upside that  is what people mean when they say markets are   discounting mechanisms they're forwards looking  so this sell-off into fomc was forwards looking   into that event and then when the event takes  place very often you get the reverse happening   so i tweeted out also on january the  11th that when the market was coming down   that yes this was pretty volatile however the  markets were not actually crashing they're only   correcting as it currently stands and my base case  here is for it doesn't have to be this exact pip   or point but that these are the lows in the  stock markets and this correction is now over   so if i am going to get bullish on stocks once  again what i would like to see is i would like   to see a break of this high over here and i would  like to see the stock market doing this next week   i'd like to see a rally up into this area and that  would set up the opportunity further advances to   the upside in the stock market i'll reassess these  and move these levels around and that would likely   take place in the nasdaq as well the dow jones  and the russell so to summarize where i currently   stand on stocks the market as it currently stands  is still correcting although this is volatile this   in my opinion has a very good chance of being the  low in the spx and also the nasdaq dow jones and   the other stock markets it has not yet reversed  so i don't want to be catching a falling knife and   buying into these i would much rather wait for it  to reverse higher and then trade in that direction   than to get bullish on the stock market and as a  result of that i would like to wait an additional   week before forming a bullish bias on stocks once  again now i noted that this sell-off in the stock   market as it currently stands as a correction  not a crash however if markets at this point   fail to make new highs and we get a failure to  make a high up in this area and then we come   down and take out this level over here that could  very well initiate crash in stock markets and that   would be where we could technically consider  what is currently a corrective sell-off to be   the start of a new trend to the downside and that  would initiate a full-on bear market technically   speaking in the spx for example now i know that  a bear market is 20 from the highs but i actually   think there are better ways of identifying bear  markets and technically speaking this is not yet   a bear market this is a sharp sell-off and if you  go and look at the bigger picture say the monthly you can see very often you get these sell-offs in  the monthly followed by the rally bigger sell-off   here followed by a rally sell-off in the monthly  followed by a rally and this just underscores the   fact that as it currently stands this is not  a crash this is just a near-term correction   so patience on all of the stock markets in my  opinion because this is kind of in no man's land   it's technically bearish but we could be at the  point where we start to bounce so i'd rather wait   an additional week before forming a stronger bias  one way or the other on stocks if we're going to   have a look at the nifty you can see the nifty  as an indication of what could be coming next   in the u.s stock market is not structured to  the downside if in fact what we're forming here   is an inverse head and shoulders and i'd be  looking if u.s stocks are going to bounce i would   also be looking further advances in the nifty up  to the previous high and then on to the 18594.90 okay so wrapping up the video with XauUsd  XagUsd and bitcoin starting with gold   gold actually had a major breakout to the upside  which we've been looking at in the previous weekly   forex forecast videos however last week fomc broke  the back of that breakout and that breakout has   now failed to the upside and gold overall is  kind of neutral but it's at a risk of a much   bigger decline now with that failed breakout why  because i noted in previous videos how we had this   inverse head and shoulders breaking over here to  the upside which is course is bullish and we also   have at the same time the opposite here we have  a head and shoulders which is a bearish pattern   to the downside now the fact that this breakout  above these areas over here failed last week is   pointing towards a potential failure over in this  area to make a new high and if that's the case   and we are heading down towards this low in gold  any break of this low could very well see quite   a bit of capitulation to the downside because all  of these traders who are long in this area likely   placing stops here in february 17 59 44 and we  break this low we could very well see gold selling   off quite hard to the downside i said in previous  videos this is likely to explode one way or the   other and as it stands this has failed to really  explode to the upside after that major breakout   so the downside risk in gold is now elevated and  also with a stronger dollar this is going to add   downward pressure on gold so very simply put going  into next week because of that failed breakout   any pullback in gold as it currently stands is  viewed as an opportunity to look for further   declines and i'm going to be looking for bearish  reversals in this market down to the 1759.44 next is silver silver also had a very big  sell-off to the downside last week and reversed   and as it has done pretty much all of last year  the stronger dollar is really weighing in on those   breakouts to the upside in gold and silver as it  stands while the dollar is still strong i do favor   shorts in this market now any pullback in this  market is simply viewed as it currently stands   as an opportunity to look for shorts into the  25.47 and last but not least we have bitcoin i was  

bearish last week on bitcoin and we've taken out  target off target to the downside in this market   and i am still bearish i'm viewing this currently  as a near-term correction to the upside a bear   flag type scenario if you will any breakout to the  downside in bitcoin is viewed as an opportunity   to look for shorts into the three two one one two  and with the dollar breaking stronger last week   that's going to add additional pressure to bitcoin  to the downside since it's priced here in dollars   so that is it for me for this week guys i do favor  dollar strength plays going into next week i like   aussie to the downside new zealand to the downside  and i do think we could be seeing a bottom here in   the stock markets although i don't step in and  catch falling knife i'd rather wait till next   week to see if we can reverse higher from where we  are as always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely you

2022-01-30 20:41

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