Weekly Forex Forecast (30/08/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX / 20 Markets [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (30/08/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Bitcoin / SPX / 20 Markets [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here  with this week's weekly forex forecast   i hope you're having a great weekend we're going  to run through 20 markets in today's video and   we're going to kick off with the dxy as we always  do in last week's video i noted that the dxy was   currently structured to the upside and was looking  for a pullback towards the knights 264 we came   back and actually tested this level right at the  end of the week we had a sell-off we corrected   sideways and then we had another sell-off on  the power speech out of jackson hole on friday   where he basically said he didn't want  to taper too soon because if inflation   was going to be transitory he didn't want to  cause a problem where there might not be one   and the market took this as being fairly dovish  especially compared to other fomc members   in terms of when tapering will come now despite  this sell-off and the fact that the initial   sell-off was quite steep you have to take this  into context with the dxy overall which is that   it has been getting more volatile and if we take  a step back and look at the price action last week   we didn't break the previous low the structure in  the near term is still to the upside and this was   actually only an inside week so overall although  the sell-off looked quite steep it was a neutral   week for the dxy so going into next week i  am still bullish on the dx wire we have not   in any meaningful or significant way crossed  the line in the sand here at the knight 264.   and going into next week this would be a great  place to start to look for bullish reversals which   we do not have just yet but any bullish reversal  in this area will be viewed as an opportunity to   look for further advances in the dxy up towards  the 93.76 which is the same target we looked at   last week now something important to note here is  that in the much bigger picture if we zoom out it   does look like we could be coming towards  the end of an abc correction in the dollar   and there may be further downside in the dollar  over the next three months or so now you may be   asking yourself well how does this tie in with  a bullish bias going into next week well we have   not yet reversed in the near term how will we know  if this is an abc and we're going to start to look   to the short side we would want to see a reversal  in the near term pitch what we're looking at here   so what might that look like well if we start to  come down next week and we take out this low what   we're going to be forming then is the potential  for a developing head and shoulders pattern   a near-term correction failure to make a high over  here and that would kick-start the potential abc   reversal into the x-y as it currently stands it  does look like we have one more move to the upside   and that is what i'd be primarily focused on next  week so i do go into next week with a bullish bias   on the dollar but just be aware of that overall  abc potentially developing and further declines   in the dollar in the near future if not next  week next is eurusd now last week in EURUSD   i highlighted the 1.17890 to look for a pullback  towards this level we did pull back and we didn't   really have any bearish reversals in this market  despite the fact we rallied to the upside last   week off of the pal speech i do still think there  is a good chance we get that rally to the upside   in the dollar one last time even if we are going  to roll over in the bigger picture and as a result   i am still favoring short positions in euro dollar  next week we have started to break above this   level so what i'd like to see is the market come  back down below here we may for example start to   come down break these lows over here any pull back  in that area especially if we start to flag would   be viewed as the opportunity to start to look for  bearish reversals down to the next k of supports   the downside of the target set at the 1.1651 now  if you're looking for those bearish reversals next   week what that's also going to do is it's going  to filter out any short positions in this market   if it just keeps trading to the upside so i do  want to see those bearish reversals first a nice   reversal and then a bear flag would be  preferable in EURUSD going into next week next is AUDUSD now last week i was looking  for a pullback in AUDUSD for a move down to   the 0.70960 we had a big move to the upside and  again very easy to think because of the volatility   that this was a very bullish week but when  you take it in context with the rest of the   volatility of this market you can see this was  another inside week it's actually a neutral week   overall in terms of the trend to the downside in  AUDUSD so going into next week we have not crossed   the line in the sand 0.7355 so any pullback  including everything we had last week is still  

only viewed as an opportunity to short this at a  better price i wouldn't short it right here simply   because i prefer to look for bearish reversals and  this is quite bullish as it currently stands but   going into next week any reversal in this market  if we start to come back down and break lows over   here any pullback and any bear flag in this market  will be viewed as an opportunity to start to look   for bearish positions down to next year  supports the downside in the target set 0.7096 next is NZDUSD now last week we had a big rally  to the upside but again if you take this into   context of the overall trend and the volatility  that we've been seeing this was another inside   week inside week is a neutral week in NZDUSD  just as it was in the dxy AUDUSD as well   so unless or until we cross the line in the  sand here in any significant way in the 0.70350   i do still only favor short setups in this market  we have a big rally to the upside off of the   pal speech last friday however if that starts  to fade and we get traders coming in fading this   to the downside and we start to break lower any  bearish setup any brake lower head and shoulders   or a bear flag in this market will be viewed next  week as an opportunity to look for bearish entries   down to the next key of support to  the downside the target set the 0.6802 next is GBPUSD now last week we started to move to  the upside and we had a bit of a correction here   in the four-hour chart and at this point  probably no need to tell you what this was   this was another inside week another neutral week  so going into next week i do still favor bearish   setups impound dollar we're not even close  in my estimations to being bullish on this or   for this to be a buy opportunity in GBPUSD we  would need to see a much higher reversal not   just in GBPUSD but also would need to see the dxy  rolling over as well so going into next week any   pullback in this market is still viewed only as a  correction and an opportunity to start to look for   bearish setups down to the next key of support  to the downside the target set at the 1.3572 crude oil and last week with the sell-off in  the dxy we did start see profit taking coming   into crude oil we started to see a snap back to  the upside we're currently sitting at the line   in the sand highlighted last week we're looking  for a pullback towards this area and if we look   at how the market is trading into this kiev  resistance because that's what the line in   the sand is a key of resistance or support where  if the market crosses that this could signal a   reversal in the market itself or the asset itself  well we haven't crossed it we're right at this   level this is where the market could sell off and  if we look at the price action coming into this   we're trading into this really with slowing  momentum if we look at previous highs over here   so this is now an error we could start to see  crude oil rolling over to the downside and any   brake lower in this market any bearish reversals  will be viewed as an opportunity to look for short   positions down to the next key of support to the  downside in the target set at the 61.39 any weaker  

oil any roll over to the downside in this market  will also have a negative effect on the canadian   dollar and i do favor once again cad shorts and  cad weakness going into next week because of this next is USDCAD now the dxy still structured to  the upside and looking like it might have one   more rally to the upside even if it is going  to roll over on that bigger abc it hasn't   rolled over just yet and crude oil trading  into that kiev resistance that we looked at   with a lack of momentum looking like it's going  to roll over to the downside next week i do still   favor long positions in this market and although  we had a big sell-off this is a steep sell-off the   market got very volatile reflecting the dxy once  again it was an inside week it was a neutral week   so very simply put going into next week my  long bias does still remain in this market   and any continued pullback is simply viewed  as another opportunity to look for bullish   reversals up towards the next key resistance  the upside in the target set at the 1.2811 next is CADCHF now CADCHF might be my favorite  pair going into next week it's at least one of   my favorite markets going into next week i do  think we see further declines in this market   next week last week i was looking for a pullback  away from the 0.7061 towards the 0.73610 and we   got a really nice pullback in this market this  move to the upside in CADCHF was wait for it and   inside week again across the board we had inside  weeks last week across the markets in the currency   markets anyway was a very neutral week and as  a result i'm still looking for declines in this   market nothing has really changed here so going  into this week you can see we've already started   to break lower this is showing weakness already  coming in we have this head and shoulders pattern   in cad frank this is therefore a great place to  start to look for bearish entry so any continued   pullback in this market will be viewed as another  opportunity to look for short positions down   to the next key of support to the downside the  target set at the zero point seven zero six one next is CADJPY now CADJPY is another market that  i like going into next week CADCHF is my favorite   but CADJPY is probably in the top four top five  and this is because the last week we're looking   for a pullback had a really nice pullback deep  pullback gives us nice opportunities to short this   we've already started to develop a head and  shoulders pattern here and especially if we   start to roll over from key resistance in crude  oil which we looked at earlier in the video   this is going to help CADJPY to the  downside so pretty much from where   we are any continued pullback this is looking  like a great opportunity to short this market   what i would like to see is even though  we start to develop head and shoulders   any brake lower once again next week is going  to be viewed as the opportunity to look for   bearish setups down to the next key of  support to the downside at the 84.72 next is AUDJPY now in previous weekly forex  forecast videos we were looking for short   positions up in this area before this big sell-off  not just in AUDJPY in fact in a number of these   markets and we had the big sell-off and last  week we corrected the upside very similar to   what we've looked at in the other markets we  had this correction it was an inside week it   was actually a neutral week despite the volatile  nature of this pullback and very simply put going   this next week i do still favor short positions in  this market any bearish reversal to the downside   in this market will be viewed as an opportunity  to look for short positions we're going to be   looking down towards next kia of support to  the downside the target set and the 77.57

next is NZDJPY now last week we had a nice snap  back in this market because of the volatility of   the sell-off the week four and this is another  inside week it's a neutral week in NZDJPY   i am still favoring short positions we have  not crossed the 77.510 in any significant way   here which would be where i'd start to look for  potential reversals to the upside in this market   and where i would start to consider bullish  setups in this market we have not broken this   level and so very simply put although we're  sitting right at the top here any break to the   downside any bearish reversal next week in this  market will be viewed as an opportunity to look   for bearish setups down to the next key of support  to the downside the target set at the 74.59 next is AUDCHF now this is my second favorite  market going into next week after CADCHF   we are pulling back and again another inside  week neutral week i am still looking for short   positions in this market short setups  and we're starting to lack momentum   as you can see it looks like we're  forming a potential double top here   so any bearish reversal in this market especially  if we were to come and break this low confirming   this double top this is going to be a great  opportunity to start to look for short positions   in AUDCHF down to the next key of support  to the downside in the target set the 0.6507

next is NZDCHF now we had a really nice self  to the downside in NZDCHF and again last week   we had some short cover and profit taking  coming in saw this volatile snapback but   just another inside week a neutral week i am  still bearish on this market and in fact as   we always say the deeper the pullback the  better because it provides us with better   risk to reward to the downside so any bearish  reversal in this market going into next week   is going to be viewed as an opportunity to start  to look for short positions down to the next key   of supports downside the target set at the 0.6233  now just bear in mind that a lot of these markets   are showing similar setup so you're not going  to want to trade every single setup you see   the best thing to do is pick the best ones look  for the best setups best bearish reversal patterns   that appear and you can trade those ones instead  but just to reiterate we're not looking to trade   every single market next week you don't  want to over trade or take too much risk   moving on to stocks and starting with the spx we  took out the target last week of the 4485.83 and   this was the target that we had set in previous  weekly forex forecast videos we finally got there   in last week's video i did highlight the fact that  with jackson hole and also with the deflationary   move we saw in currencies there were some warning  signs flashing for the stock market and although   we came down we took out the previous low over  here and we started to enter into this potential   developing head and shoulders i did stress that  this was not yet bearish we would need to see   the market coming down breaking below the line  in the sand taking out this low that would be   what could potentially kickstarter reversal  instead we formed a higher high in the market   which is exactly what we'd want to see to become  bullish once again so very simply put going   this week i am bullish on stocks once again after  clearing new highs last week any pullback in this   market will be viewed simply as an opportunity to  start to look for further advances up to the next   target set at 4526.97 and if we can break through  here the next target to the upside is 4598.55

next is the nasdaq now very similar  to the spx the line in the sand here   at the 14791.89 held last week we  did not break down below this which   was highlighted as a potential reversal in stocks  if we came down and broke below this level we   bounced the upside we made new highs and this is  painting a bullish outlook going into next week   we did take out both targets set in the  nasdaq finally finishing the week at the 15   378.31 target going into this week i do favor  long positions in the nasdaq and i think we're   going to see higher highs once again in this  market we broke out of this range last week   and any pullback towards this range next week is  simply viewed as an opportunity once again to look   for further advances in this market up towards  the next target to the upside at 15 796.91

next is the dow jones now the dow jones actually  failed to make a new high last week unlike the   nasdaq and the spx so the risk of a reversal  remains in the dow jones compared to the other   markets we looked at you can see we have a  developing head and shoulders and we failed   over here to make a new high and if we were to  come and break this level here this could trigger   some strong liquidation in the dow jones so again  something to think about going into next week   however this is not yet bearish and with new  highs in the spx and also the nasdaq last week i   do favor further advances going into next week in  the dow jones so any pullback towards the 3476482   is simply viewed as another opportunity to  look for bullish reversals in this market   up towards the next target  to the upside at the 36066.23 and finally for stocks we're going to look at  the nifty now last week unlike us stocks i did   note that we simply had a ball flag set up in the  nifty we came back towards the previous highs and   was looking for a rally into the 16 900 420 we  did have a nice rally towards this target so for   anybody not involved from last week any pullback  once again is simply viewed as another opportunity   to look for bullish reversals into the next target  to the upside set from last week the 16 904.20 next is XAUUSD now XAUUSD is a very interesting  chart going into next week because after the flash   crash going into next week now i am bullish on  XAUUSD we are structurally bullish on this market   in the near term however the dxy has not yet  rolled over to the downside and this leaves an   interesting scenario because we looked earlier on  in the video at the dxy potentially being towards   the end of a larger abc which would be bearish for  the dxy well if the dxy does roll over next week   for whatever reason and again i'm looking for at  least one more move up in the dxy i am bullish on   the dxy going into next week but if we do get  a bearish reversal to the downside in the dxy   this would propel gold through the 18 34.12 this  would actually be a major double bottom reversal  

in XAUUSD in the bigger picture this would be  the confirmation point so it is very interesting   although i still have a bullish bias on the dxy  next week XAUUSD may be giving us an indication   an early slight lead on where the dxy is going  to be headed maybe in the next four weeks or so   so as it currently stands because i'm  bullish on the dxy going into next week   i'm not going to trade XAUUSD because trading  XAUUSD to the upside while i'm bullish on the dxy   it can happen but any moves to the upside are  likely to be capped if the dxy remains strong   next week but in terms of XAUUSD the next move i'd  be looking for is any pullback towards the 1782   be looking for a move up towards the 1834.12  and as i said if we do break this level this   would be a major double bottom reversal in the  bigger picture in XAUUSD so definitely a market   to keep an eye on next week but personally i will  probably leave XAUUSD and not trade it next week   i'd like to see the dxy rolling over first before  i take bullish positions or setups in XAUUSD next is XAGUSD similar to XAUUSD we reversed  the upside last week this market is structurally   technically bullish we had an inverse head  and shoulders in this market and we broke   the confirmation level right at the end of the  week to kickstart potentially a bull market to   the upside in this asset having said that there  are a few things to consider one although we broke   above the confirmation point this is still very  choppy two were very close to the target and three   the dxy has not yet rolled over to the downside so  there are in my opinion some risks to any bullish   setups or positions in XAGUSD going into next  week whilst the dollar is still strong so with   that said if you are looking perhaps to jump in  front of a potential dxy reversal if you think   that's what's going to happen any pullback in this  market would be viewed as the opportunity to look   for bullish setups into the 22.60 personally  speaking i will leave XAGUSD next week even if   it breaks a bit higher i would prefer to look for  bullish setups in XAGUSD once we get and if we get   a bearish reversal to the downside in the dxy  that we looked at at the beginning of the video and last but of course never least we have  bitcoin now bitcoin has been a really great   performing asset in the weekly forex forecast  since we introduced it and last week i was   looking for a pullback in this market towards  the 44 388.97 we did have a really nice pullback   and as it currently stands this is simply just a  ball flag in this market any continued correction   is once again going to be viewed as  an opportunity to look for bullish   reversals into the next key of resistance  the upside in the target set with a 52.911

so that is it for me for this week guys as  always i hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thanks to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely you

2021-08-29 19:29

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