Weekly Forex Forecast (29/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (29/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're   having a fantastic weekend and to our american  viewers i hope you had a great thanksgiving   we're going to kick off with a quick review  of the key events heading into next week   we're then going to do the relative currency  analysis and we're going to look at the scorecards   for the currencies going into next week we're  then going to assess the individual currencies   through the futures markets before moving  on to the currency pairs selection process   and we're going to finish as we always do by  looking at stocks gold silver and bitcoin so   let's start by looking at the economic calendar  the first piece of data we need to look at is   the data which came out last week here which  is the interest rate decision from the royal   bank of new zealand now they did raise interest  rates from 0.5 to 0.75 and this of course you   would think would be bullish but we saw a big  sell-off in the new zealand dollar last week i   have my suspicions i think that's just part  of maybe a bigger deflationary move however   for those of you who follow me on twitter you'll  know i was actually a little bit ill last week   and i wasn't able to trade and i wasn't able to  sit through the press conference so i don't really   know what was said last week because i was ill so  if anybody has a good explanation as to why we saw   that selloff in rbnz feel free to tell me in the  comments i'd be interested to know because i was   a little bit out the game last week however going  into this week the why doesn't matter in terms of   trading the fact is we saw the sell-off and that  sell-off going into this week new zealand weakness   is going to be a theme we want to pay attention to  and that's regardless of what the catalyst was to   cause that sell-off in new zealand last week  when we saw the raising of interest rates   so coming into this week you can see there  really is not too much we need to pay attention   to we do have some speeches and of course the  speeches from the central banks can actually   move the markets we have some cad gdp data which  can move the markets aussie gdp data again can   move the market but these are not really pieces  of data we need to plan for coming into friday we   do have non-farm payrolls so that's really the  only thing to pay attention to going into next   week when you have non-farm payrolls week you can  see the markets basically flat across the board   but that doesn't really help us as it stands right  now going into next week it's more something in   hindsight at the end of the week you can say okay  well the markets haven't moved because of this   so it's not something we need to plan or pay  attention to too much in terms of short-term   trading next week and if we skip forward one more  week you can see there are two pieces of data we   need to pay attention to here the interest rate  decision on tuesday december 7th out of australia   and also that week we have the interest rate  decision out of canada so what that tells me   is there's a greater risk in the next two weeks  of the australian dollar and the canadian dollar   basically being corrective and if the markets are  corrective you know it's difficult to make money   so we really want to get involved in the  markets which are going to move be explosive   and as a result when we go through the markets the  australian dollar and the cad dollar i would be   prepared to take opportunities because we may see  moves in those markets but i wouldn't go too heavy   on them if you put all of your trades or your  whole forex portfolio in aussie and cad pairs for   the next two weeks that whole portfolio might just  go nowhere so i might be interested in taking one   or two trades but i wouldn't go too heavy on the  aussie or the cad pairs over the next two weeks   so let's have a look at the scores for the coming  week then and the first thing that jumped out at   me when i put the data into the scoring system  and we got the scorecards is that the currency   markets are indicating deflation and the reason  i say this is because if you look at last week   you can see yes we had the u.s dollar which was  the best long position based on last week's data   and in fact anybody who has long dollars last week  would have done extremely well so the process here   really nailed that again last week but you can  see the difference between this week and last   week is last week the canadian dollar was sitting  in second place we had commodity currency of the   new zealand dollar in third place well if you  look at the currency scorecard this week you   can see the risk off currencies are forming over  on the left hand side here or at the top of the   scorecard and the risk on currencies commodity  currencies are forming at the bottom of the   scorecard or over on the right-hand side here when  you get the currencies aligning like that where   you have all of the risk off currencies showing  strength and the risk on currency showing weakness   this is the currency markets pointing towards  deflation and that actually has implications   for the stock market in fact we saw that at the  end of last week with stock selling off and we're   going to look at stocks in more detail later on in  the video so getting into the specifics then going   into next week what are the best themes well first  and foremost you can see the new zealand dollar   is the weakest currency and we have a net  change of minus four so new zealand weakness   is absolutely going to be one of the things on the  top of my list going into next week focusing on   those new zealand dollar short positions i am also  going to be interested in looking at swiss franc   long positions as the swiss franc has climbed  to the top of the list here with a plus three   net change and it is the strongest currency  going into next week it's showing the best buy   potential out of all of the currencies i also  like euro weakness going into next week as well   and also us dollar strength going into next week  as well so very similar to what we looked at   last week we had a big run last week maybe the  us dollar corrects a little bit first but us   dollar strength is back on the cards so really the  most simple way to break this down going into next   week is the trades and the setups i'm going to be  looking to take are deflationary style setups and   they're going to be primarily in the order of  new zealand first so NZDCHF i'll be interested   in we're going to look at NZDUSD we're going to  look at NZDJPY we're going to look at i also would   then look at EURCHF to the downside EURUSD to the  downside we can look at EURJPY to the downside   i would then be interested in AUDCHF to the  downside AUDUSD and also AUDJPY and also CADCHF   cad dollar or in fact USDCAD as we would be  trading it and CADJPY now we just have to remember   that we do have those interest rates coming up in  aussie and cad maybe that's why they're slightly   more neutral anyway than euro new zealand  going into next week and since the pound also   went from being neutral last week to actually  bearish to neutral i mean when we have a rating   of one as i've said many times before this is kind  of bearish to neutral bullish neutral it's not   very bullish or very bearish but you can if you  really want to look for positions in those as well   okay so let's go and have a look at these currency  pairs highlighted as the best potential setups for   next week let's go and have a look at them in the  markets and see how they're setting up so before   we look at the setups down in this area let's  quickly look at the individual currencies in the   futures markets and just see what they're doing  in last week's video i highlighted the us dollar   to the upside as the best buy and you can see we  had a really nice rally we took out the target   at the 96.79 and that was pretty much the move  in dollar last week so any continued pullback in   the dxy is simply viewed as another opportunity to  look for further advances in this market next week   next is the euro now the euro was highlighted  as a good short from last week in fact it was   highlighted as the best short from last week  and we did come down and we took out the target   to the pip at the 1.11920 that was the low  of the week last week going into this week  

i do still like further declines in the euro  as a theme and any pullback is simply viewed   as a near-term correction and an opportunity to  look for bearish reversals down to the next key of   support to the downside of target set the 1.1149  next is the pound now last week we're looking   further declines in the pound and the pound  futures came down took out the 1.3316 and that was   the move in the pound from last week any pullback  in this market is simply viewed very similar to   the euro as an opportunity to once again look for  bearish reversals and further declines down to   the 1.31 next is the swiss franc now last week and  in previous weeks we're looking further declines   in the swiss franc and we came down and we took  out the target set in frank futures at the 1.0696  

and that was pretty much the low from last week  and we rallied from that area so if i update this   chart you can see that the new line in the sand  comes down here at 1.06940 above here looking to   be bullish and this market is now technically  structured to the upside and any pullback in   this market would be viewed as an opportunity  further advances to the 1.0906 first and foremost   and if we break through here secondarily on to  the 1.1014 so the swiss rank itself technically   is actually bullish confirming what we looked at  in the relative analysis next is the japanese yen   last week i was looking further declines in  the japanese journal we did take out botox and   downside and we rallied i mean to the point at the  second target here indian futures that was the low   of the week in the yen futures going into this  week if i reset the chart and you can see we're   still in the daily charts here i am looking for  further strength coming into the japanese yen it   was not super bullish if you look and you remember  back to the scorecards we had the japanese yen as   plus one but it did have a decent change it was a  plus two net change so any pullback in the yen i   am going to be looking for advances into the eight  nine one one zero and then on to the 0.0090270 next is the canadian dollar   the canadian dollar last week we're looking  further declines to the downside we did get   further declines and we came very close to taking  out the targets we haven't taken it out just yet   so i am looking for this target to now be taken  out and any pullback after this will simply be   viewed as another opportunity to look further  declines into the 0.7754 next is the aussie   dollar now the aussie dollar i was really kind of  beating this drum in previous videos i was saying   to you guys we failed we had the strong dollar  we failed with the inverse head and shoulders   and when we looked at iron ore you can see this  was going to start to drag the australian dollar   to the downside and aussie dollar shorts were  really something i suggested paying attention to   in previous videos we did come take out the  target and we almost took out target two   so going into next week i do like the aussie for  further declines probably take out target two from   last week and start to correct and any correction  will be viewed as another opportunity for further   declines down to the 0.7012 and last but not  least we have the new zealand dollar you can see  

very similar to the australian dollar  we had the inverse head and shoulders   failing and then reversing to the downside  we took out both targets to the downside   and as i said earlier this really is one of the  key things i'm going to be keeping my on next   week this currency primarily any pullback in the  new zealand dollar is viewed as an opportunity   to look for bearish reversals down to the 0.67  260. okay so nothing out of the ordinary there   looking at the individual currencies  really just confirming what we looked at   in the relative currency analysis and  underpinning what we looked at in the scorecards   okay so dropping down to the four-hour charts  here and we're going to look at the setups and the   charts highlighted by the scoring system so the  NZDCHF is my favorite market going into next week   to the downside this is the primary market i'll  be looking to be short it does need to be said   that when you are going long swiss francs  and if you're selling new zealand swiss   franc what you're doing is you're selling new  zealand dollars and you're buying swiss francs   well you are trading counter to the interest  of the swiss national bank who want to see   the swiss franc devalued they do not want  to see the swiss franc rising in value   so you do always have intervention risk  whenever you're trading the swiss rank so   what's the best way to use it well you don't  have to be scared and not trade swiss franc pairs   but if you take huge amounts of leverage with very  tight stops and the swiss national bank comes and   intervenes in the market the market is very likely  just to blow through your very very tight stop   and you can end up losing a lot more money  than your initial stop-loss was set to lose   so just make sure with the swiss franc pairs  that if you are trading them you give yourself   a nice wide stop you are in a position where if  the swiss national bank does come and intervene   at any point and you end up taking a loss on the  trade you're not really losing anything more than   you would be on any other normal trade so i do  like NZDCHF going into next week any pullback in   this market is viewed as an opportunity to look  for bearish reversals i'm going to be looking   down towards the next k of support to downside the  target set 0.6249 and if we can break through here   going to be looking down towards target 2 0.6140  now as if the NZDCHF couldn't get any better   you can see i've highlighted these levels here as  green these are levels which have a greater than   normal probability of being taken out they're high  conviction levels so i personally think there's a   very good chance perhaps not next week because  it might be too far to come in a single week   but i do think we'll be coming down to the  0.6140 ultimately in the next few weeks and  

this is really telling me in fact that new zealand  weakness is probably going to be a theme running   all the way up until christmas next is new zealand  dollar now last week we're looking further to   clients downside new zealand dollar we did take  out the target set and we continued through this   target last week any pullback in this market  is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for   bearish reversals down to the next care of  support to the downside of the target set 0.6725 NZDJPY now NZDJPY was a market we looked at uh  last week for a potential interest rate decision   trade to the upside why because if you remember we  were looking at the n pairs as a potential one two   three four and then a fifth wave however what were  the currency scores telling us in previous videos   don't trade it yet be patient be patient on the  end pairs don't trade them yet that's what we were   looking at in previous videos and what happened in  fact the currency scores were actually giving us a   warning about this failing to the downside which  it did on the interest rate decision so we were   patient on this and what we discussed last week  was if we got that interest rate decision rally   to the upside we could start to look for pullbacks  and the fifth wave however the reverse happened so   going into this week i would be looking for short  positions and short setups in this market now and   i would consider what would look otherwise like a  potential one two three four and a five to in fact   not be the case so any pullback in this market i  mean look at the momentum in these markets we've   looked at in the new zealand pairs these are  seriously indicating further declines in these   markets so any pullback is simply viewed as the  opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals   down to the next key supports the downside the  target set and 76.40 and if we break through here   be looking down towards target two and the 74.79  both these targets also green so both of these   when i went through and did the work on them these  are high conviction levels so i do think in NZDJPY   we're coming down to the 74.79 in all probability  before christmas so those are the new zealand   pairs and those are my favorite pairs going into  next week let's move on to the euro pairs starting   with EURCHF which is the strongest currency  in terms of the swiss franc versus the euro   we are kind of grinding to the downside here  so we're quite close to this target so what   i'd like to see in EURCHF is any pullback  in this area before we take out the target   will be viewed as an opportunity to look for  bearish reversals down to the next gear supports   the downside and the target set at the 1.0411 if  we come down take out this target first and then  

bounce i'll be looking down towards target  two at the one point zero three one fifty   next is EURUSD now EURUSD came down and took  out the targets and look at this this was a high   conviction target this was a target which had a  greater than normal probability of being taken out   just as we looked at in NZDJPY and NZDCHF so all  in all this is a market we've been highlighting to   the downside as one of the best shorts in the last  couple of videos and we've had really nice moves   going into this week you can see we've already  started to bounce so any continued pullback is   great because this gives us better risk to  reward opportunities down towards the next   camp support to downside the target set at the  1.1146 and the final euro pair here is EURJPY EURJPY is clearly trending to the downside and  we had this kind of very mini on the smaller   time frames head and shoulders reversal here  any pullback in this market is simply viewed   as an opportunity next week to look for  bearish reversals and we've had EURJPY   off of the list here actually for quite a while  but it's back on this week so any pullback i'll   be looking for bearish reversals down to the next  care support to the downside and the target set   at the 127.31 and if we get through here we're  looking down towards target two at the one two   six point four ten so after new zealand's short  positions and then euro short positions the next   one i'll be looking at next week in third place  would be the aussie short positions and AUDCHF really nice sell-off to the downside i mean  look at the momentum here again this is a   market which is just telling you that it's set for  further declines to the downside any correction   in this area is going to be viewed as an  opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the next key of support to the downside  and the target set at 0.6507 next is AUDUSD now AUDUSD was a market which as i said  i really was highlighting to the downside   saying to focus on those aussie short positions  because of all the things we discussed when we   looked at the individual currencies we did take  out both targets and look where we came down to   we came down to the higher probability target here  and in fact that was exactly more or less where we   finished the week last week so really nice moves  to the downside in AUDUSD in the last couple of   weeks going into this week you can see we do have  some momentum coming into this market as well   though it's kind of it's already very bearish  we don't really have any corrections in here   so any pullback in this market is simply viewed as  another opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the next key of support to the downside  of the target set and 0.7011 and the final aussie  

pair here is AUDJPY, AUDJPY we have really  nice momentum to the downside as we got that   risk off rally in the japanese yen at the end of  last week and you can see when you break like this   with momentum as i said before this is indicative  of further declines to the downside so any   pullback here is simply going to be viewed as an  opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to   next kiev supports the downside of the target set  the 78.95 just remember with the australian dollar   pairs we do have an interest rate decision out of  australia in two weeks so i don't recommend being   too heavy in aussie pairs over the next two weeks  next we're going to move on to the cad pairs and   first we're going to look at crude oil now last  week we had a huge sell-off in crude oil and we   came and we took out both targets to the downside  and we exploded through those targets we ended up   being about 12 or 13 down just in a single day  last week last friday in crude oil so going into   this week i'm looking for declines to the downside  in crude oil and any further declines in crude oil   is going to drag down the canadian dollar with  it so going into next week any pullback in this   market and with such a big down day i would be  extremely wary about just shorting this at the   bottom because i think we could get a bit of  a snap back in this but any pullback in crude   oil is simply viewed as an opportunity to start to  look for bearish reversals i'm going to be looking   down towards the next target to the downside at  65.48 as i said further declines in this market   are also going to weigh on the canadian dollar so  with that said let's look at the cad pair starting   with CADCHF huge sell-off in CADCHF last week  not only as we saw the swiss franc strengthening   but we had that big sell-off in crude oil  which is dragging the canadian dollar down   here so any pullback in this market especially  i like this as we've let me change this pen i like this because we've been correcting here  we're actually breaking out of a correction   so any pullback in this market will be viewed  as an opportunity to start to look for bearish   reversals down to the 0.7184 and if you say we  come down first and then pull back any bearish   reversals i'll be looking down towards target  two at the zero point seven zero nine five one   next is USDCAD, USDCAD is trending to the  upside and you can see we have this ball flag   and then we have a rally with momentum  setting up another potential ball flag   so any correction in this market is simply going  to be viewed next week as an opportunity to look   for bullish reversals i'm going to be looking up  towards the next care resistance the upside in   the target set the 1.2879 and the final cad pair  here is CADJPY, CADJPY had a really big selloff   to the downside with momentum and i do like i mean  these are all showing us that there's a very good   chance we get more yen strength going into next  week and that the deflationary environment that   the scoring system is suggesting is likely to  carry on into next week as well so any pullback   in this market next week is going to be viewed  as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to next kiev supports the downside the target  set and the 87.66 just as with the australian  

dollar we have that interest rate decision in two  weeks so again i wouldn't get too heavily involved   in the cad pairs but it doesn't mean i wouldn't  take maybe one or two trades in aussie and cad   pairs and the final pairs we're going to look at  here are the pound pairs so starting with GBPCHF you can see we've had a nice correction in GBPCHF   and now we've broken down  with momentum here this is suggestive of further declines to the downside  and i'd be looking for a bear flag here so any   pullback in this market will be viewed as an  opportunity to start to look for short positions   down to the next kiev supports the  downside of the target set at 1.2227   GBPUSD, GBPUSD was a market highlighted in last  week's video we came down we took out the target   at one point three two eight eight and that  was pretty much the low of the week so any   correction in this market is simply viewed as an  opportunity to start to look for bearish reversals   down to the next camera supports the  downside of the target set the 1.3178   and last but not least we have GBPJPY  now GBPJPY looks to have started a new momentum wave to the downside and so any  pullback in this market is going to be viewed   next week as an opportunity to start to look for  bearish reversals down to the next key of support   to the outside the target set at the 149.210 and  i have to say guys based on what i'm looking at   going into next week there are a lot of markets  here which look like they're going to continue in   terms of NZDCHF in fact virtually all of these we  looked at with momentum could very well continue   to the downside so i don't think next week  there's going to be a problem finding trading   opportunities it may actually be the opposite it  may be trying to avoid trading too much next week   because i think there's going to be quite a few  trading opportunities in these pairs next week   so let's wrap up the video by looking at stocks  XAUSUSD XAGUSD and bitcoin last week the spx was   structured to the upside we were still trending  to the upside technically speaking but i have   been sounding the horn for the last month that  upside in stocks is limited a deeper correction   is likely coming and we should keep protections  in place hedges in place certainly not being long   only stocks and this looks like it started at  the end of last week we had this big sell-off to   the downside this actually reversed trend it was  this double top here which has now been confirmed   in the spx having broken this low and this does  look like it's set further declines going into   next week we have the currencies which are also  pointing towards deflation which is going to   be a decline in stocks and so everything seems  to suggest that we're going to get a continued   flight safety going into next week and so i do  go into this week with a bearish bias on spx   any pullback in this market would be viewed  as a potential precursor to further declines   down to the next k supports the downside  four five five nine point eight eight   and if we break through here could be coming all  the way down to the 4476.44 now as i always say   this doesn't mean you have to go out next week and  short the s p 500 it may be the case that if you   like to trade long only you exit your positions  you're not involved in any long positions or you   trade individual stocks within the s p 500 which  are setting up to the downside so please don't   confuse this analysis here with saying short spx  if you want a short spx that's entirely up to you   but there's multiple ways you can play this going  into next week next is the nasdaq now last week we   came up and took out the target set in the nasdaq  and we had a large bearish engulfing day from this   level and that was the high in the nasdaq and for  those of you who follow me on twitter i did tweet   at the time that this was based on everything  i'm looking at likely the end of this run in   the nasdaq so far so coming into this week  i do have a bearish bias on the nasdaq   any pullback in this market is viewed as an  opportunity to look for further declines down   to the next care of support to the downside at  the 15 858 95 and if we can break through here   down towards the second target to the  downside at 15 499.26 next is the dow jones   now last week the dow jones was structured to  the downside and we came and we actually gapped   through the target set at three five three  two two point zero nine so we saw some real   fear coming into the markets i mean you see the  gap down in the dow jones you saw the 12 to 13   sell-off in crude oil this was indicative  of traders acting now and thinking later   nobody is prepared to sit there questioning the  validity of these risk off moves they're just   pulling their money out now and they're going to  assess it later and this is what we're seeing so   we are seeing some panic coming into the  markets here on friday so any pullback this week   is viewed as another opportunity to look for  further declines in this market down to the   next key of support to the downside the target  set at a three four four five eight point sixty   next is the russell now the russell also came  down took out both targets and then gapped down   on friday with a big sell-off so any pullback in  this market is viewed as an opportunity to look   further declines down to the next key of support  to the downside the target set at the 2160.98  

and last but not least we have the nifty the  nifty was a market that has been highlighted   to the downside over the last couple of weeks we  came down and took out the target the 17 437.9   going into this week i still have a bearish bias  on the nifty any pullback in this market is viewed   as an opportunity to look for further declines  down to next kiev supports downside the target set   at 16 724.75 so let's have a look at XAUUSD  XAGUSD and bitcoin starting with XAUUSD   now this rally to the upside in XAUUSD this  was actually a major breakout highlighted in   previous videos and we came down very hard we  have not yet reversed in XAUUSD but you can see   the strong dollar is starting to take its toll  on that XAUUSD breakout on the XAGUSD breakout so   i am still technically bullish on XAUUSD since  the trend is still to the upside but XAUUSD long   positions are now not really a high priority  for me going into next week i'd much rather   be looking at those short new zealand pairs for  example than trading XAUUSD with a strong dollar   the one thing i will say is that because we're  quite extended in the dollar the dollar may   actually need to correct a bit first which could  see XAUUSD rising to the upside but i think   any moves to the upside in XAUUSD are probably  now going to be capped all the while we have the   dollar rallying as hard as it is so any continued  pullback is simply viewed as an opportunity to   look for bullish reversals i'm going to be looking  overall up towards the 1890.10 but as i say just   bear in mind with a strong dollar any moves to the  upside in gold may well be capped next week and   there's no guarantees we're going to be coming  up to the 1890.10 next week so gold is not a high   priority of mine going into next week personally  next we have XAGUSD now interestingly XAGUSD has   actually reversed the downside and we  have here a working head and shoulders   so you can see and remember back to the australian  dollar pairs and the new zealand dollar pairs when   we had those inverse head and shoulder breakouts  and we failed right at the breakout level do you   remember what happened came all the way back and  we're now testing the lows of the original head   and shoulders pattern so we could very well see  XAGUSD coming down to 2152 in the near future and   this is also likely going to see XAUUSD falling as  well so this is why i'd be very careful with those   XAUUSD long positions in fact i probably won't i  personally won't be looking to trade XAUUSD next   week almost certainly because i don't think it's  one of the best setups so going into next week   in fact i would prefer to be short silver than  long gold any pullback in this area is viewed as   an opportunity for a potential right shoulder and  i will be looking for bearish reversals i'm going   to be looking down towards the next care support  to downside the target set at the 22.26 and last   but not least we have bitcoin now bitcoin is a  market that i have been bearish on in the last   couple of videos and you can see ever since  then we have been coming to the downside so   very simply put there's no change in the analysis  on bitcoin here we're still making our way down   towards the next kia of support we have a little  bit of momentum coming in from this break here any continued pullback is simply viewed  as an opportunity to look further declines   down towards the next cab supports the  downside the target set at 49 317. so that  

is it for me for this week guys as always i hope  you enjoyed this video and if you did please let   me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big  thank you to everybody who does that on a regular   basis and a big thank you to everybody  who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend i want  to wish you all the best in your trading next week   the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely

2021-11-28 13:49

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