Weekly Forex Forecast (28/02/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're all   well we had a crazy week in the markets last week  because of the ongoing situation in ukraine and   heading to this week we cannot form a trading plan  without taking into account three major catalysts   coming up this week two interest rate decisions  one out of australia one out of canada and of   course the decision as to whether or not to cut  russia off from the swift system which is probably   the biggest driver heading into the markets  next week and we're not going to be getting   into the politics of the ukraine russia conflict  in this video but we are going to be talking about   the potential disconnection from the swift system  for russia because of the implications this has   primarily on the oil market and then the secondary  knock-on effects following on from the big impact   that will have on the oil markets so we're going  to start as we always do by having a look at the   economic calendar at those key economic events  which are coming up we're then going to look at   the scorecards before moving on to the currency  pairs themselves to see which markets are looking   like the best opportunities heading into next  week for finishing as we always do with stocks   XauUsd XagUsd and bitcoin so if we have a cursory  look at the economic calendar starting with what   took place last week we did have an interest rate  decision out of new zealand we saw the raising of   interest rates and a strength of the new zealand  dollar this is something to consider going into   this week as it does look like we could get some  follow-through trades on that move last week if we   click over to see what's coming up next week you  can see first and foremost we have the interest   rate decision out of australia on tuesday the  australian dollar is unlikely to do anything   between monday and this interest rate decision  on tuesday morning and so in terms of the aussie   dollar pairs i will be waiting for this interest  rate decision to take place and looking for setups   based on the price action after that interest  rate decision takes place you can see there's not   expected to be a raising of interest rates but if  you decide to try and preempt that and you say go   short on some of the aussie pairs and you get a  surprise interest rate it's going to fly on your   face so the best way to trade this in my opinion  if you want to get consistent returns is not to   try and guess the outcome is to wait for the move  to happen and then trade those secondary or even   sometimes you get third opportunities to trade  in that direction the next key thing to look at   in the economic calendar is the canadian interest  rate decision on wednesday there is expected to   be an interest rate rise in canada from 0.25 0.5  so again the cad pairs are going to be in part of   my trading plan i'm going to have them and i'm  going to set them up in a way that this can be   traded both ways and i will also be waiting until  after wednesday's interest rate decision to trade   those cad pairs that we're going to look at and  you can see finally we have services pmis as well   but we have unemployment data and non-farm  payrolls on friday usually when you have non-farm   payrolls on a friday you can see the entire week  basically just kind of correcting or doing nothing   however because of the other catalysts that we  have in the market specifically the decision as   to whether or not to cut off russia from the swift  system as we will be discussing in this video and   its implications and also the interest rate  decisions we have i think we're going to see quite   a bit of volatility next week despite the fact  we have non-farm payrolls on friday and finally   a quick look just two weeks ahead you can see we  also have an interest rate decision coming out   of the eu the following thursday and so there's  quite a lot going on over the next two weeks   and of course in today's video i'm going to be  going through my own personal trading plan of how   i'm looking to navigate these market conditions  over the next week or so so if we look at the   scorecards we can see a clear picture emerging  from last week we have had the euro and the dollar   both kind of scoring positively for a while and  this has caused corrections in the markets overall   as the dollar has just kind of corrected sideways  well last week we saw a clear flight to safety we   saw an increase in the score of the dollar we saw  an increase in the score of the franc the yen we   also saw a slight increase in the score of the  new zealand and that was because of the interest   rate rise in the face of risk-off moves we still  saw the new zealand scoring a point higher so the   message that the markets are sending here is quite  clear we have risk of sentiment coming into the   markets and under normal conditions this would  actually be quite welcome here because you'd be   looking at this and saying finally we have that  breakout of the dollar we have that divergence   in the euro and the dollar which actually starts  to get the markets trending once again we start   to see tons of opportunities coming back into the  markets and trading actually becomes a lot easier   and more profitable when you see the market's  trending and when you see the dollar and the   euro diverging in strength so confirming the  capital flight into risk-off assets we also saw   money coming out of the euro out of the pound  so we saw money moving specifically from those   currencies into the risk-off assets but there  is a slight giveaway here that the risk-off move   is not fully fledged and that is that the more  exposed commodity currencies here are not weak   they are actually still more or less neutral and  in a fully fledged risk off mode you would expect   these markets to actually be the weakest down in  this area you would expect to see the australian   dollar as the weakest then the new zealand and  cad etc so despite the clear risk off move this   has not formed a complete trending risk off  sentiment or market condition and the problem   we have going into next week is this we saw a  kind of a whip saw at the end of last week we saw   the dollar and crude oil rallying over fears that  russia would be cut from the swiss system and   then when joe biden the president of the u.s came  out and said this was not going to be the case we   saw the markets whip sold back and we saw risk on  coming back into the markets and of course going   into next week this remains an issue because as i  am recording this now reports are coming out that   countries which initially vetoed or stood against  the cutting of russia from the swift system   are starting to change their mind and they're  starting to talk about potentially supporting   the idea of cutting the russian economy off  from the swiss system so going into next week   even in the face of the australian and canadian  interest rate decisions the big key driver and   it's something that is likely not to just  decide next week but it's going to decide   probably the next couple of months now is whether  or not the decision is made to cut off the russian   economy from the swiss system that is going  to be the main driver the sword of damocles   hanging over the markets heading into next week  because that is a major major economic shock   not just to russia but throughout the whole  system and the implications of cutting russia   off from the swift system are actually quite  wide ranging and we're going to go through that   again in today's video so based on what we're  looking at in the scorecards my primary plan   is going to be risk off because that's what we're  seeing and especially as more and more countries   come out in support of potentially cutting  russia from swift this of course is more risk   off and if they take that decision it's going  to be a very risk-off situation in the markets   so the primary pair i'm going to be looking at  is euro dollar to the downside is going to be   the first pair and my primary pair going into next  week can also look at pound dollar to the downside   and potentially even us dollar cad to the upside  and those being the primary setups for a risk   off environment and a continuation of what we're  seeing in the scorecards we can also have a look   at a couple of potential risk on situations and  the best place in my opinion to look will be in   the new zealand pairs so if we come into next week  and it's reaffirmed that russia is not going to be   cut off from the swift system you are likely to  see a continuation of the risk on sentiment that   came in and an unwinding of the risk-off moves at  the end of last week and that's going to benefit   the commodity currencies primarily like the new  zealand dollar like aussie dollar and since we had   the interest rate decision out of new zealand last  week and a slight strengthening of the new zealand   my primary risk on markets next week will be for  example euro new zealand to the downside pound   new zealand to the downside and possibly in that  situation we could also look at new zealand dollar   to the downside as well so i am setting up charts  to potentially play this both ways next week   because it's impossible to know at this point  whether russia will be cut off from the swift   system and i will also be looking at adding  in some australian pairs and some cad pairs   for the interest rate decisions themselves next  week so to summarize primarily i'm going to be   looking at those risk off pairs i will also be  setting up with some risk on pairs in case the   opposite happens and it's reaffirmed once again  russia is not going to be cut from the swift   system you're likely to see risk on moves and  then i'm also going to have those interest rate   decision setups ready to go for the interest rate  decisions out of australia and canada next week   okay so let's look at the markets themselves  starting with the oil chart and this is   probably the most important chart as it  currently stands with the ongoing situation   we have been discussing i have said in previous  videos that crude oil is likely reaching a top   and for that reason i haven't been looking to  trade it to the upside for a number of weeks and   there is key resistance not only is it in terms  of trend the momentum likely to be reaching a top   and we're likely to see it start to roll  over it is also at a very significant   key area of resistance so you have those two  things going hand in hand and since i posted out   on twitter that we're likely seeing the top in wti  we basically have gone nowhere and i still believe   without any exogenous shocks that crude oil is  likely to roll over to the downside now what we   saw last week was we saw fears over the sanctions  on the oil and gas industry and the disruption of   the oil and gas industry which speculators were  positioning for and that's why we saw the big   spike up in crude oil we're looking on the daily  chart here so you can see overall this big spike   and the candle closing back down pretty much where  it started in the range and the reason it came   back down was because joe biden came out president  of the u.s and said russia will not be cut off  

from the swift system and by extension and not  just by extension but also explicitly there will   be no sanctions on the oil and gas industry that  is why we saw fears over sanctions on oil and gas   causing a spike to the upside in crude oil and  then those fears are baiting when sanctions were   announced and they were not to be targeted at the  oil and gas industry now this is really where the   whole scenario around swift comes in because if  russia is cut off from the swift system there is   a high risk that this causes disruptions to the  oil and gas industry because the swift system is   essentially a messaging system but an easier way  to think about it would be as if you were running   a business and you were using something like  paypal very easy to do all your transactions in   paypal 24 7 and then if that was taken away from  you you would have to you could still continue   to do business but you'd have to go maybe and  do bank transfers go into the branch you'd have   to sign some paperwork show identification it's  just a lot more laborious and it's a much more   difficult way to do business you're not preventing  them from doing business but what you're going to   do is you're going to make it much harder to do  business and you're going to provide a short-term   shock as they transition from the swift system  into something else but it won't actually prevent   them from doing business now of course payments  are made to russia on the swift system for oil   and gas and therefore any disruption in the swiss  system or cutting russia off from the swift system   is likely to result in disruption of oil supplies  and that is what is likely to cause a big rally   in crude oil now the reason that this is the  key chart is because it's the chicken and egg   scenario if you get a rally in the price of crude  oil you're going to see high levels of inflation   that will be in the us in europe because crude  oil is a large input to the global economy now   if you have a big price rise in crude oil and you  get higher levels of inflation on top of already   high levels of inflation in countries like the  uk europe and the us this is going to increase   the need for central banks to raise rates even  quicker than they're currently looking to do   and so you're faced with a scenario where central  banks in europe the uk and the us face with higher   levels of inflation from now onwards than we  already have we'll be forced to raise rates   even quicker into what is currently not extremely  strong economic growth so it greatly increases the   risk of a policy mistake in the uk in the us  in the eu if we have a big spike and a shock   to the oil price and therefore a sharp increase in  the levels of inflation in the global economy over   and above what we're already seeing so this is  why policymakers have been hesitant to unanimously   approve this because it is going to cause a shock  on top of already fragile situations economically   now this is not a coincidence of course this  would be one of the reasons why vladimir putin   invaded ukraine at this current time because he  knows full well were they to play sanctions on the   oil and gas industry at this crucial moment when  trying to keep inflation down they're going to be   causing themselves an even bigger problem than  they already have so this is not a coincidence   this was a mechanism which has quite clearly  been put into the russian invasion plans to   prevent them being sanctioned on the oil and gas  industry because if in the uk in europe in the us   you have very very low levels of inflation there's  a lot more room to sanction russian oil and gas   because you can have a spike in the oil price  you can take the additional inflation but when   you have inflation already at seven percent the  calculation has been made by the russians that   that is going to prevent the eu the uk and the us  from sanctioning their main exports which is oil   and gas so that is the reason why going into next  week the oil market is the key market here and on   top of that the decision as to whether or not to  cut russia out of the swift system and therefore   in all likelihood disrupt the supply of crude oil  is going to be the key driver because if they do   that and you see the price of crude oil spiking  to the upside and with it inflation you're going   to see the us dollar rally and you're going to see  bigger risk off moves because central bank around   the world are going to have to tighten monetary  policy even faster than they're already doing   and of course when you do that causes a negative  effect to gdp so going to speed up the economic   contraction in the global economy conversely if  the decision is made not to cut russia off from   the swift system and not to sanction the oil and  gas industry then this is likely to see a top in   the near term in crude oil as long as supplies  are not disrupted and at the same time there   would be less need to raise rates at a faster  pace which would also be bearish for the dollar   and just generally this is more of a risk-on-type  scenario not because they can necessarily cut   interest rates but just because they don't have  to increase interest rates as fast with lower   levels of inflation and again the decision as  to whether to cut russia from the swift system   is either going to result in a spike in the oil  price in all probability and also a flight to   safety so you see the dollar also rallying to the  upside in the event russia is cut off from the   swift system and there are disruptions severe  disruptions to the oil and gas industry or on   the other hand if russia is not cut off from the  swift system and they decide to pursue this policy   of strengthening ukrainian defenses with weapons  ammunition etc and at the same time sanctioning   russia in all other areas apart from the oil and  gas industry you are likely to see a continuation   to the downside in crude oil you're likely to  see the dollar start to top and roll over as well   as inflation comes down and speculators view  this as the fed for example having a little   bit more room and not having to rush hikes if  inflation is starting to come down naturally   so hopefully that makes sense and that is why  i believe the decision about swift and russia   next week could very well have a major impact on  the markets themselves so with that said i'm not   going to be looking at trading crude oil all the  time this decision about swift seems to be pending   okay so let's start by looking at my first two  and my favorite pairs based on the scoring system   these are risk off moves and they are EurUsd  GbpUsd to the downside these are my two favorite   markets going into next week as you can see we  have big momentum on the fears over the sanction   of russian gas from russian oil and then we had  that correction when it came out that sanctions   were not going to be applied to that industry  however i still believe any pullback in this area   should still simply be viewed as an opportunity  to look for bearish setups into the 1.1109 next is   pound dollar you can see we're also forming this  kind of bear flag set up really strong momentum i   am looking for this to come down and make new lows  as a fairly high probability trade so any pullback   in GBPUSD is viewed next week as an opportunity to  look for bearish setups down to the 1.3271 it does   currently look like with a number of holdouts over  the swift system changing their minds and looking   like they're starting to support cutting russia  from this system that would actually benefit both   these pairs to the downside as well next is the  new zealand pairs now the new zealand pairs are   all based off of the increase in interest rates  last week and a strengthening of the new zealand   is a risk on play in risk on scenarios you would  expect the new zealand to outperform the pound   outperform the euro and certainly outperform the  dollar so i'm primarily looking at the two risk   off pairs of euro dollar pound dollar but in the  scenario the west comes out and reaffirms that   russian oil and gas is not going to be sanctioned  and they're not going to perhaps be cut from   the swiss system then i'd prefer to pivot to  the new zealand pairs which will risk on and   any pullback in this market will be viewed as  an opportunity to look for bearish reversals   down to the 1.9804 in euro new zealand you can  see we are testing the lows here unlike pound   new zealand where we have really nice  momentum to the downside that's why   although the euro is slightly more bearish i've  put the pound slightly above it because you have   that nice momentum whereas in the euro you're  testing the lows so any pullback in euro new   zealand would be viewed as an opportunity to  look further declines and perhaps you get euro   new zealand pulling back like this and then  what happens is you get the announcement that   no russian oil and gas is not going to be  sanctioned you see the sell-off like this   bit like an interest rate decision and then that's  the opportunity to look further declines into the   1.6542 and the final new zealand pair is new  zealand dollar again i'll be looking for any   pullback in this market and if we get the news  that russian oil and gas is not going to be   sanctioned they're not going to be cut from swift  i would expect to see a rally to the upside like   this and then any pullback would be viewed as an  opportunity to look for further advances into the   0.6807 the next two markets are cad pairs based  on the canadian interest rate decision starting  

with us dollar cad which is structured to the  upside we took out the target last week at 1.2842   any correction into wednesday what i'm going to  be looking for is any correction in this market   and then on the interest rate decision  we get a rally to the upside because we   get a weaker cad so we get a surprise interest  rate decision which causes weakness in the cad   we get a rally to the upside in us dollar cad any  pullback would be viewed as an opportunity to look   further advances into the 1.2911 the second cad  pair which is pound cad is based on the opposite   so if we see an interest rate decision on  wednesday out of canada and this causes the   price of the canadian dollar to rally any pullback  in this market will be viewed as an opportunity   to look for reversal and of course if we correct  into wednesday and then we get the interest rate   decision and it does this look for a pullback i'm  going to be looking for shorts into the 1.6953  

and the final part of my plan next week is based  on the australian interest rate decision starting   with pound cad you can see in all the pound pairs  we have this really nice momentum to the downside   there's the previous low so technically i really  like the look of these pound pairs because these   are forming potential bear flags any pullback  into the interest rate decision out of australia   and then a sell-off to the downside which would  be a strengthening of the aussie dollar i'm going   to look for a pullback and then further sell-offs  into the 1.8429 and finally the opposite of that   allowing me to play a potential australian dollar  weakness interest rate decision and that's aussie   dollars to the downside so again i'm not going to  be doing anything until the australian interest   rate decision but any continued pullback into that  followed by a sell-off in the australian dollar   i'm going to be looking for a pullback i'm going  to be looking for the declines down to first of   all the previous lows over here and then on to the  0.6933 so to summarize here i have no position on   crude oil because of what we discussed with the  russian oil and gas industry potentially being   disrupted or sanctioned my favorite two pairs  next week are euro dollar and pound dollar to the   downside which are risk off moves if in the event  the west comes out and reaffirms no sanctions on   russian oil and gas and that they're not going to  be kicked out the swift system i will be looking   at the risk on pairs and i'll be looking for  further advances in the new zealand dollar i'll   be looking to trade the canadian interest rate  decision with us dollar cad on cad weakness and   pound cad on cad strength and i'll be looking at  trading the australian interest rate decision with   pound aussie on aussie strength and australian  dollar on aussie weakness with everything going   on next week you don't have to trade the number  one job is always to preserve your capital but   that is how i'm personally going to be approaching  the markets next week okay so moving on stocks   gold silver and bitcoin starting with the spx last  week we came and took out both targets in the spx   and last week was quite an important week because  it was the week that we saw a trend change   technically to the downside having broken the low  over here and this was a major head and shoulders   break to the downside confirmed below this level  and so as it currently stands i am bearish on spx   and this fits in with the risk-off primary plan  that i'm looking at in terms of euro dollar to the   downside pandora to the downside stocks will also  be affected by the decisions made against russia   and the sanctions because as we said before if  oil supplies are disrupted through sanctions   and we get a spike in the oil price and we get  an increase in inflation over and above what   we already have this is going to force central  banks to tighten monetary policy even faster   and this is going to be even more  negative for the stock markets   now when you get a major break like this it does  become a decision point this is very often where   you get the start of a new bear market or if  it fails here this can actually be the bounce   for a new bull market so i know it doesn't sound  extremely helpful me saying that but that's just   the reality in the stock market you are right  at a level which is currently bearish but could   reverse to being bullish in the near future and  the catalyst for that would likely be the refusal   once again from the west to sanction the oil  and gas industry in russia or to cut it off   from the swift system if that's the case and  you start to see the price of oil coming down   that is going to give central bankers more room  with their monetary policy and that could actually   be the catalyst for a new break above the 4 4 8 5  40 and a continuation of the overall trend we've   been seeing all year into the end of the cycle so  how i would personally play that when you're in a   situation where the market is bearish but you  could get a bounce is if you want to be short   i would only be short with a small amount of risk  that would mean maybe taking a couple of positions   if you want to get short or to be short on stocks  themselves or another way of reducing your risk is   to be short in the form of a long short portfolio  so you have long positions and short positions   so in this kind of a scenario i would either  leave these markets completely and wait for a more   clearer direction or i would be net short but with  not huge amounts of risk just in case we get that   reversal and again you may even just want to wait  for further confirmation on what's going to happen   with the oil and gas industry in russia in terms  of sanctions and the situation around the swiss   system next is the nasdaq now the nasdaq is  in exactly the same position as the spx which   i got both targets to the downside last week  as it stands this is the start of a new bear   market technically because we broke the major  low here if this was a one and a shallow two   and so the nasdaq is bearish i would once again  be net short although i wouldn't take too much   risk and if you want to be extra safe wait for the  situation around sanctions to become clearer but   as it currently stands i would be net short on the  nasdaq looking further declines into the 1306.27   dow jones dow jones also took out the target set  previously and like with the other stock markets   we currently have a technical bear market now in  the dow jones so any pullback would be viewed as   an opportunity to be net short into the next  kiev's port to the downside at the three two   four one four point six five next is the russell  now the russell also came down took out the target   set the russell also has a very clear delineation  here in the 2107.80 or 0.08 i should say this was  

the break which started a potential bear market in  the russell and we're still down below here so any   continued pullback is viewed as an opportunity  to be net short into the next gear of support   at the 1892 the first indication that the train  was reversing back to the upside in the russell   would be a break back above the 2107.08  and what tends to happen if you get that   let's say they they refuse to sanction the oil  and gas industry in russia and they say they're   not going to kick russia out of swift and  then at the same time perhaps we start to see   peace talks emerge between ukraine and russia  in fairly short order well all of these are   going to be bullish for the stock market and you  may see a rally back above the 2107.80 if that's   the case that becomes the trade to start to look  for but it is not going to happen probably next   week certainly the pullback as well you might just  get if you have some good news coming out of this   conflict as i say in the form of peace talks and  no further sanctions then you may see the breakup   next week and then that would kick start the  following week potentially long opportunities   so as it stands i'm still net short as an overall  bias and finally we have the nifty the nifty did   break down taking out the target set what i'd be  looking for going into this week is any pullback   in the nifty to close this gap would be viewed as  an opportunity to look further declines once again   into the 16 349.50 so finishing up with gold  silver and bitcoin starting with gold gold has  

been a fantastic performing market over the last  couple of weeks we've had a really big rally we   broke multiple key major areas and we took out  both targets to the upside in gold last week now   gold got a bit wild as we had that initial risk  off spike followed by joe biden saying there is   not going to be any sanctions on the oil and gas  industry and then we saw the risk on move coming   back into the market and we had this huge whip  saw within one day in gold it was quite something   when all is said and done i do have an overall  bias of risk off and i do think we could   quite easily see gold continuing to the upside and  making new highs we are coming back to retest the   previous major breakout points at the 187724 so  any test of this area is going to be viewed as   an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts  into the 1973.26 just bear in mind if we get   peace talks coming out of ukraine or a continued  refusal to sanction the oil and gas industry or   kick russia off the swift system you could see  gold dumping once again so any long positions do   have a little bit of risk so it's just something  to pay attention to but if you've got sensible   risk management that should take care of that  because there's always a risk of having a losing   trade whenever you place a trade anyway next is  silver silver also took out the target last week   in the same fashion as gold we had a rally  to the upside so any continued pullback in   silver is still viewed as an opportunity  to look further advances into the 25.39   and finally we have bitcoin bitcoin was a really  good performing market last week we came down took   out the target set at the 38 960 and we turned  right at the second target down here at 34 670.  

so what to be looking for here in bitcoin is any  break to the downside i'm viewing this correction   as an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts  and any break like this with momentum is going to   be viewed as an opportunity to look for further  declines once again into the 33.039 so that   is it for me for this week guys we do have very  turbulent market conditions so it's not super easy   to be trading in these conditions however that  is my plan going into next week and i do think   the decision as to whether or not to kick russia  off the swiss system could actually be quite a big   decision in terms of market directions heading  into next week as always i hope you enjoyed the   video and if you did please let me know by liking  sharing and subscribing a big thank to everybody   who does that on a regular basis and a big thank  to everybody who has subscribed to the channel   so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely you

2022-02-28 18:56

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