Weekly Forex Forecast (22/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (22/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd / Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're   having a great weekend we're going to kick off as  we always do by having a quick review of the key   events heading into next week i'm also going  to look at some of the events from last week   specifically that cpi print out of the uk and  the effect it had on the pound we're then going   to look at the score cards for this week and  last week those score cards really put us in   front of the best moves euro dollar highlighted  as the best trade to the downside and it was the   best performing pair last week we're then going to  move on to our individual currency analysis we're   going to look at the individual currencies in the  futures markets and see how they align with our   scoring system before moving on to the currency  pair selections we're going to look at the   strongest versus the weakest currency pairs and  we're going to finish as we always do by looking   at stocks gold silver and bitcoin so the different  parts of the video are indexed and time stamped   for you below however i do strongly recommend  watching the whole video because all of these   different pieces of the puzzle are interlinked  and we link all of these pieces of the puzzle   together throughout the video so let's start off  by having a quick look at the key events we need   to pay attention to which came out this week and  also are coming out next week the pieces of data   that were highlighted in previous video that we  need to pay attention to were primarily the cpi   data which came out this week in the form of the  uk cpi data on wednesday and also the canadian   cpi data now the canadian cpi data came out pretty  much as expected there wasn't really any reaction   to this and this is not really something that  we need to pay attention to this week the uk   cpi data came out hotter or higher than expected  and also over a full percentage point higher than   it was previously so what we saw and somebody was  asking about this in the last video in the comment   section what we saw was a rally in the pound  and the question was why is this the case well   when you're looking at news events and you're  looking at economic data you have to remember   the markets are discounted mechanisms they  discount the present and they look to the future   so when you see a higher inflation print yes  this is technically right now bearish for the   pound because higher inflation is indicative of a  weaker currency however the currency rises instead   of falls because traders are looking ahead to the  central bank reaction function to that data so   they're saying well yes inflation is high now  so the central bank is going to have to raise   rates or taper faster or whatever it is and so as  a result the pound rises in anticipation of future   central bank monetary policy reactions to the data  so this is why we saw a jump in the pound last   week and this is why this is one of the pieces of  data that we look at the cpi data the inflation   data when we do the economic analysis like we're  doing right now at the beginning of the video   so that's really the only thing that we need to  look at for this week and heading into the next   week if we go and have a look at the data coming  out next week you can see there is the new zealand   interest rate decision which was highlighted in  last week's video that we need to pay attention to   and as a result in fact the new zealand didn't  really go anywhere last week if you saw the new   zealand dollar and this is in anticipation  of the rbnz statement and policy decision on   the november 24th which happens to  be my birthday and so this is really   a piece of data we have to pay attention to going  into this week because if you start to trade   new zealand dollar pairs before wednesday  they're probably not going to go anywhere   and when we go through the trading plan this week  that i have i will be focused on new zealand pairs   from wednesday onwards looking for moves in the  direction of the analysis or the chance we have   and that's going to be how i'm going  to play the new zealand pairs this week   we also have preliminary gdp data coming out of  the us which can move the markets and can cause   movements but it's not really something we have  to plan for in advance uh like we do with the uh   interest rate decision out of new zealand and  apart from that yes there are other pieces of   data manufacturing pmis these are all important  in terms of macro outlook but there's nothing we   really need to pay attention to on a short-term  trading basis perhaps the core pce price index   is something as well just like with the cpi  data last week that we can see markets moving   but even with the pound last week you don't tend  to get reversals in trends with the cpi data   and i wouldn't be surprised to see the pound  revert to being a fairly weak currency in the   coming weeks so the big takeaway heading into  next week is expect some potential volatility   in the dollar pairs or dollar base pairs on  wednesday with gdp print also with the core pce   print but it's really the new zealand interest  rate decision we really need to pay attention   to and we want to avoid new zealand pairs between  now and wednesday unless of course you want to get   involved in a new zealand trade in anticipation  of what's going to come in the race statement   but just bear in mind that's a high risk high  reward scenario because if it goes against you   it's going to be volatile so there is expected to  be an interest rate rise out of new zealand we'll   see if that materializes and if it does we'll  see how we can capitalize on that from wednesday   onwards being the safest way to play this in my  opinion so let's have a look at the scorecards   coming into this week the us dollar is still the  strongest currency followed by the cad and we have   actually seen an increase in the strength of new  zealand last week that's interesting you don't   usually see too much activity before an interest  rate decision either way i still don't think   it's a fantastic idea to trade the new zealand  pairs before wednesday i prefer to take less   risk less reward in other words to smooth out the  volatility of returns so as i said i'll be playing   the new zealand pairs from wednesday onwards the  pound actually did strengthen last week off of   that cpi print and this was somewhat meaningful  strengthening of the pound because it is a neutral   currency this week it means that after being  short the pound for a good few weeks and actually   having a really nice self in the pound we really  capitalized on that sell-off it's now time maybe   just to be a bit patient on the pound and look  into other currencies we also saw the japanese yen   weakening slightly which is good for the potential  fifth waves we've been looking at in previous   videos which haven't yet materialized are still  correcting but it'll be interesting to see if the   yen weakens more this week and the swiss franc  has also weakened along with the euro which was   identified as the best short last week and you  can see we are now at minus three out of minus   four really telling us the euro is once again the  weakest currency and further downside in the euro   is something we want to pay attention to and seems  likely so all in all the takeaways going into this   week the us dollar is still my favorite long the  canadian dollar is the second favorite long but   we do have crude oil selling off slightly which is  going to have an effect on the canadian dollar a   negative effect somewhat so we do need to pay  attention to that and it's one of the reasons   in fact why the us dollar is my favorite  currency the new zealand dollar is my third   favorite long position and this is also with the  anticipated increase in interest rates this week   but again we'll see if that materializes if we  can get some of those new zealand long positions   after the interest rate decision that would be  fantastic the yen the frank and the aussie are all   weak however they're not super weak like the pound  was or the euro was last week or like the euro is   this week so i do favor shorts in those positions  but just bear in mind they're kind of bearish   to neutral and out of those ones the aussie  would be my preferred short outside of the euro   since first and foremost it's the most exposed  to the us dollar so when the us dollar rises as   a rule of thumb you would expect to sell off the  most and as we looked at last week and we'll look   again this week we do have iron oil prices selling  off hard which usually drags the australian dollar   down with it so euro aussie and my favorite  shorts going into this week and the us dollar   and potentially the new zealand dollar long  positions would be my favorite if we can get that   increase in interest rates on wednesday and we  start to see the new zealand dollar rallying   and we can look for some follow-through in the  new zealand pairs so when we go and look at the   charts we can look at EURUSD to the downside once  again he's going to be my favorite currency pair   this week i'll be looking also at eurcad i'll  be looking at euro new zealand to the downside   will be a great currency pair to keep an eye on  coming into wednesday if we do get a strengthening   that is absolutely going to be my first go-to  currency pair on wednesday i am also interested   in AUDUSD to the downside once again AUDCAD to  the downside and also AUDNZD to the downside   so if we do get a strengthening of the new zealand  dollar on wednesday AUDNZD will be the second pair   outside of EURNZD to the downside i  would be very interested in looking at   and we can also again look at the frank and yen  pairs vis-a-vis the us dollar the canadian dollar   and the new zealand dollar but just bear in mind  as i said they're not as weak as the euro and the   aussie and finally with the pound being absolutely  neutral going into this week i would prefer to   wait on the pound and just see where it's going to  head next wait for it to strengthen or weaken in   one direction or the other before looking to get  involved in pound positions personally speaking   so i think the pound after a number of weeks  of good declines is now a bit of a wait and see   currency so let's now have a look at the  individual currency starting with the dollar index   the dollar index was the best long currency  highlight in last week's video and we had a really   nice rally taking out the target at the 95 74. it  doesn't look to me like this rally is over perhaps   we come down at the start of next week and we  start to correct a bit more but with this momentum   breaking out of this previous correction over here  this is indicative of further advances in the us   dollar in the coming week or next couple of weeks  so any pullback in this area in the dxy simply as   it stands is viewed as a correction i'm going to  be looking for further advances in to the 96.79   so us dollar index long positions looking like one  of the best plays going into next week next is the   euro so inversely really to what we just looked at  in the dxy highlighted as the best short position   going into last week euro and we had a really  really nice sell-off anybody who was short euro   got paid handsomely last week and we finished  the week right at the second target i mean that   was almost the low of the week in euro now the  reason why i put the levels on the individual   currencies as well is not just to have a look at  the individual currencies in terms of strength and   weakness but it's also to help with market timing  if when you see the euro for example trading into   the 1.12720 the second target that is a good sign  that in the currency pairs the euro currency pairs   you're probably going to start to see a bit of  correction as the euro snaps back so going into   this week i am still bearish on the euro because  we had such a nice sell-off don't be surprised to   see a bit of a correction first any pullback  in this market is simply viewed as another   opportunity to look for euro short positions down  to the 1.11 920. next is the pound now the pound   was highlighted to bearish currency last week  and i am still looking at this i mean this is   bearish here we had this big double top breakdown  over here which i highlighted in previous videos   so technically speaking this is a bearish chart  but because of the cpi print last week we started   to pull back so looking at this you can see yes  the pound is neutral but i certainly wouldn't be   looking to go and put lots of pound long positions  on or belong the pound in any significant way next   week because this is not a particularly strong  currency and the only pound long position i might   consider although there is a good argument to say  that any pound one positions next week is not a   good idea but the only one i might consider would  be euro pound because the euro is so weak heading   into next week so i am looking for the declines in  the pound but perhaps we even come back a little   bit more next week so generally speaking out of  the pound pairs going into this week i think there   are better currencies to trade next is the swiss  franc now the swiss franc broke down last week   and we've come down and taken out the targets here  at the 1.0755 and this was after a failed breakout  

to the downside which i highlighted previously and  i still have on here and then an inverse head and   shoulders which has now failed so you can see this  is kind of a neutral currency it's kind of been   bullish to neutral and now it's kind of bearish to  neutral it's not out and out bearish like the euro   but with the failure to the upside and the  resumption of this head and shoulders breakout   over here because we resumed this as we  started to break down below the 1.08280   also with the fact the SNB is overall looking  to devalue the swiss franc i do like swiss franc   short positions here and now we've broken back  in direction of the bigger head and shoulders   reversal in this direction we have the s b wind  in our sails short swiss franc pairs are probably   going to be quite attractive over the next month  or so so we did come down and take out the target   set in the swiss franc last week heading into  this week what i'll be looking for in the swiss   franc is any pullback into the previous head  and shoulder confirmation area down here this   would be an opportunity to look for further  declines in the swiss franc down to the 1.0696   so overall bearish on the swiss franc going  into this week next is the japanese yen   now the japanese yen is a very interesting one  for those of you who follow the forecast on a   regular basis you will know that we got short on  the japanese yen over in this area and we had a   really nice sell-off really capitalizing on this  sell-off in the japanese yen and then we turned   neutral down in this area as the scoring system  showed us we're a bit overextended in the japanese   yen well we did come down and take out the target  set last week and we are now making new lows so i   am bearish on the japanese yen but not extremely  bearish it's kind of bearish to neutral it's   rated minus one out of minus four we know once we  get to two or minus two or three or minus three   this is the kind of sweet spot where we  want to be for strong or weak currencies   a plus one or a minus one is kind of bullish and  bearish to neutral and if you have a maximum minus   four or plus four which is what we had down  here this was where we had the japanese yen   scoring minus four and this signaled the fact  we were probably going to see a correction in   profit taking so at minus one the japanese yen  is bearish but it's not super bearish and in fact   this could even be a one two three four and  this could be a fifth way we could start to   get a little bit corrective however i don't like  to second guess the process whenever i do that i   tend to be wrong and the process tends to be  right so i would be interested in keeping an   eye on yen short positions going into this week  and we will have a look again at the yen setups   we've looked at in previous videos and just been  keeping an eye on next is the canadian dollar   now the canadian dollar is structured to the  downside and you may look at this and say well   why is the canadian dollar rated as a plus two  and again because when you look at the insides   of these currencies essentially when you look  at data it's relatively stronger than the other   currencies and this is why we put the individual  currency analysis and the scoring system together   because without that scoring system you may  be inclined to think that this is a short   so looking at the individual currencies you can  see dollar long positions are the most attractive   play out of the us dollar and the canadian dollar  but relatively speaking although we took out the   target to the downside last week in the canadian  dollar this is actually a stronger currency than   some of the others so i would favor canadian  dollar long positions but looking at this and   looking at the fact crude oil is selling off i  would not go too hard on cad long positions maybe   just one cad long trade if you want to diversify  your setups a little bit i wouldn't go you know   too crazy on cad long positions because the cad  itself is not super bullish it's just relatively   bullish compared to the other currencies so for  that reason i do favor the us dollar to the upside   next is australian dollar the australian  dollar we were looking for further declines   to the downside last week after this failure to  break above the inverse head and shoulders we   took out the target set and i did highlight in  last week's video as well the sell-off in iron   ore iron ore looks like it's coming down to the  8510 looks like we're set for further declines   and as iron r sells off this tends to drag the  australian dollar with it so going into this week   i am once again bearish on the australian dollar  it's my second favorite short outside of the euro   and any pullback in this market will be viewed as  an opportunity to look for further declines into   the 0.71780 and finally the new zealand dollar  the new zealand dollar is currently bearish   in terms of how it is technically structured after  also failing the inverse head and shoulders break   out higher this inverse head and shoulders has  not yet completely failed because we're still   making higher highs and higher lows and if we get  the raisin of interest rates we may see the new   zealand rallying and if it breaks back up through  this level this would be a start or a trend change   to the upside so look out for this going into  next week and if we do start to get this although   it's technically bearish at the moment if we  get a reversal on the interest rate decision   that is going to be the sign to start to  look for those new zealand long positions   in for example EURNZD and AUDNZD so that's how  the individual currencies are setting up going   into this week confirming once again that the us  dollar index is the best long and the euro is in   fact the best short okay so let's drop down to  the four hour chart here and look at the actual   currency pairs themselves starting with the EURUSD  market which was my favorite pair last week and it   is again my favorite pair to the downside this  week we did take out the target at the 1.13710   and we came very close to the 1.1241 this was  highlighted green last week what did that signify  

as i said last week this was a high conviction  target i do think when you see these green levels   there's a higher than normal conviction that  the markets are going to come to these levels   so we did come down very close to the target we  haven't taken out yet which is great because for   anybody not involved it means there's a chance you  can get involved before we take this target out   any pullback in EURUSD next week is simply  viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish   reversals and short positions down to the next  care of support to the downside the target set the   one two four one and if we break through here  we're looking down to the next key of support at   the 1.1146 so fantastic pair from last week and  i will be keeping my eye on this as a priority   going into next week next is eurcad because we're  looking at the euro pairs to the downside so   euro weakness as a primary or as the top theme  for next week now in the previous video i did   highlight the fact that eurcad was a good short to  the downside and i noted that we were setting up   a head and shoulders reversal to the downside the  currency strength scoring system has thrown this   market back up to us now and it's suggesting we  may finally get a break in eurcad to the downside   if we look at this technically what's very  interesting is we have a developing head and   shoulders which is a bearish reversal pattern  and it looks like we are now setting up further   declines pretty much from where we sit i noted  that we had somewhat the left shoulder here this   was the head and this was the pullback that we  should be looking for potential short positions   we came down and we turned right at the second  target so a great trading opportunity highlighted   in last week's video going into this week i am  still looking for the declines in this market   any pullback any continued pullback is simply  viewed as another opportunity to start to look   for bearish reversals in this market down to the  next kiev support which we just missed at 1.4172   and if we can break through here i'm going to be  looking down towards target two at the 1.4057 and   the final euro short position that we're going to  be looking at here because we will look at EURNZD   as well but that's going to be specifically a new  zealand interest rate decision setup so taking out   that market the final euro short position i would  be looking at is euro pound we discussed this at   the beginning of the video that it's not the best  setup because the pound is currently neutral and   when we look at the individual currency of the  pound it's still trending to the downside so   it's not particularly bullish it's just slightly  more bullish relative to the other currencies   we did take out a previous target set to the  downside at the 0.84160. and so going into this  

week any pullback in this market would be viewed  as a potential opportunity to look for bearish   reversals down to the next key of support to the  downside the target set 0.8349 as i say though   i do much prefer euro dollar to the downside  and eurcad to the downside over EURGBP shorts   moving on to the dollar pairs starting with AUDUSD  which is my second favorite market after EURUSD to   the downside we did come down and we took out  the target set in last week's video so AUDUSD   was a nice short set up and a short opportunity  from last week coming into this week i am still   bearish on this market we already discussed the  fact that iron ore is dragging down the price of   the australian dollar and i do have a fairly high  conviction target at the 0.7120 i do think we're   going to be coming down to this in all probability  in the coming month or so so with that in mind any   pullback in this market is simply viewed as a bear  flag opportunity set up any correction is looked   at as counter trend as an opportunity therefore to  simply look for bearish reversals in this market   down to the next care of support to the downside  0.7177 and ultimately on to the 0.7120 where i do   think there's a very good chance we come down to  this target in the near future the next us dollar   market i like is USDCHF we looked at the fact  that the swiss franc had broken back down below   the major head and shoulders reversal and it is  looking bearish going into this week we've already   started to flag so the swiss franc vis-a-vis  the us dollar is actually looking like a pretty   decent market going into next week and would be  my favorite swiss franc pair going into next week   we've broken above the previous high with momentum  this really is a market that i actually like going   into this week because looking at the technicals  here we have a really nice ball flag the chances   are that any continued pullback in this market is  going to be met with a rally to new highs and i   am going to be looking onto the next target at the  0.93 so if you want a conservative target on this   look for the previous high but i do think we could  come and see the 0.9370 in this market next week   so alongside EURUSD the downside AUDUSD to the  downside i would keep an eye on USDCHF to the   upside as i think there's a good chance we get  new highs in this market and the final dollar   player we're going to look at is USDJPY now the  whole time the yen pairs were just correcting   and we'll look at these in a second they were just  correcting moving sideways and a number of those   yen pairs look like they're set for fifth waves i  sent you to be patient on those yen pairs and if   you wanted to trade the markets or i should say  if you wanted to trade yen markets you should   really look to USDJPY that was the market that  you wanted to be looking to be involved with   and that was the market that almost to the point  came up and took out the target at the one one   four seven thirty so as it currently stands  i am still bullish on this market i view this   head and shoulders break here just simply  as the start of a correction a bigger abc   and any continued pullback is viewed as an  opportunity to look for bullish reversals   up towards the next care resistance the 115.50  just bear in mind it's probably my least favorite  

dollar pair i would much prefer to trade EURUSD,  AUDUSD and also USDCHF before i trade USDJPY and   actually i don't know why i said the final dollar  pair because we have a couple more here let's look   at GBPUSD, pound is structured to the downside  this is simply a bear flag and in fact i would   treat any continued pullback in this market  simply as another opportunity to look for bearish   reversals down to the next care of support to the  downside at one point three two eight eight so   even though the pound is neutral you're looking  at a bullish currency in the dollar visa via   neutral currency i do think there's a good chance  we see further declines in pound dollar next week   and the real final dollar pair going into this  week is NZDUSD highlighted as a market which   was set further declines last week we did  come and take out the target at the 0.69820   almost to the pip and that was the move for last  week in this market what i'm going to be looking   for going into next week then and in fact i  probably should have put this in with the new   zealand pairs but we'll do it now if we fail to  get because on the interest rate decisions really   want the opportunity to play that interest rate  decision both ways or either way if we fail to get   an interest rate rise in the new zealand we  could see the new zealand dollar selling off   in that scenario if the market starts to correct  and coming into wednesday we have a correction and   then we fail to get an interest rate rise out of  the royal bank of new zealand and on that failure   to raise rates we see the new zealand selling off  like this this is going to be a go-to currency for   further declines to the downside in that scenario  i'm going to be looking down towards the next key   of support the 0.6886 so i do like new zealand to  the downside but it's a new zealand interest rate   decision setup and it's a failure to raise rates  which would likely cause this further declines or   catalyze further declines in this market so i like  this setup but it will be from after wednesday   or from wednesday onwards when the rate statement  and the monetary policy statement takes place   so let's move on to the canadian dollar pairs  and we'll start off as we always do by looking   at crude oil crude oil was a market that  i highlighted to the downside last week i   had noted previously that we started to reverse  and we took out the target and that was pretty   much the low of the week in fact in crude oil  76.85 so going into this week i do still favor   especially with a stronger dollar further declines  in crude oil i think crude oil to the downside is   once again a good market and a good opportunity to  look for so going into next week you can see we've   got a bit of momentum coming in any pullback  in this market is simply viewed as another   opportunity to look for short positions down to  the target set 74.46 note that a declining crude   oil is having a negative effect on the canadian  dollar when we look at the canadian dollar in   and of itself but relatively the cad is stronger  than the other currencies this was the same case   as last week we saw a decline in crude oil we saw  the canadian dollar futures market selling off   but we still saw markets like eurcad declining  to the downside and they were nice markers   so to reiterate i favor first and foremost euro  short positions followed by us dollar strength   positions my second favorite theme next week and  in third place is canadian dollar long positions   so let's look at australian dollar canadian dollar  eurcad to the downside of course being my favorite   cad play which we've already looked at after that  the australian dollar versus the canadian dollar   this was a market highlighted to the downside last  week and we did start to come to the downside so   we didn't quite see the sell-off we saw in  eurcad for example but that's not surprising   because we noted the euro was the weaker of  the two currencies last week more explosive and   again going into this week i do still favor for  anybody not already short short positions in this   market so any pullback once again is simply viewed  as another opportunity to look for bearish setups   down to the 0.9114 and if we can break through him  we start to break this low over here i'm going to  

be looking down towards target 2 at 0.9045 and the  final cad pair we're going to look at this week is   CADCHF i did note that the swiss franc is quite  weak or setting up to be quite weak this week   but look at the price action we're seeing  here this market is quite choppy and that's   because the canadian dollar is not the strongest  currency and the swiss franc although it's weak   is not the weakest currency so i much prefer  us dollar swiss franc to the upside but CADCHF   is a viable option it's just not the best one  so any reversal to the upside in this market   would be viewed as an opportunity to start to  look for bullish setups i'm going to be looking   up towards the next q resistance the outside the  target set 0.7441 interesting to note we do have   momentum coming into this market to the upside  looks like this could even be a potential one wave   and that's off the back of this triple bottom  down here which was confirmed in this area   and finally we're going to finish  with the new zealand pairs so we've   already looked at new zealand dollar to the  downside let's go and have a look at EURNZD   so EURNZD gives us the opportunity here to  play the interest rate decision potentially   both ways because we looked at new zealand dollar  to the downside which would be a failure to raise   interest rates we start to see the new zealand  dollar selling off but what if the royal bank of   new zealand comes out raises interest rates and  we start to see a strength of the new zealand   maybe they even raise interest rates greater  than forecast i don't think that's likely but   hypothetically let's say they do something which  causes the new zealand dollar to rally then EURNZD   to the downside would be my go-to currency pair  in that scenario what i would like to see is this   i'd like to see the market correct in between now  and wednesday and if the market pulls back like   this and then we start to see the new zealand  dollar strengthening we see a breakout to the   downside and i will be looking at further declines  down to the 1.6029 and if we break through here   down to the 1.5900 so this is a new zealand  interest rate decision setup play on wednesday  

and just those two pairs there give you the  opportunity to play that interest rate decision   both ways after the announcement is made and once  the momentum if we're going to see momentum coming   into the new zealand dollar either way takes place  next is AUDNZD to the downside and again this   would be very similar to what we just looked at  with EURNZD this is a weak currency versus the new   zealand dollar so this is going to be an increase  in interest rates raising the interest rates or   a hawkish interest rate decision and if we start  to see that and we see a strengthening of the new   zealand dollar what i would like to see is any  pullback in this market between now and wednesday   and we start to see the new zealand rallying we  start to break to the downside this is going to   be the opportunity to look further declines down  to the 1.0606 and if we break through here down to   target 2 which is set at 1.0226 and the final new  zealand pair we can look at is GBPNZD now again i   don't prefer this market because the pound is not  as weak as EURNZD but i do have a high conviction   target at the 1.8733 so going into next week and  you can see we actually took out the previous  

target here set almost to the pip i mean that  was a really nice move down to the target here   so any continued pullback going into wednesday  is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for   bearish breakouts and that could be on the raising  of interest rates any break to the downside is   going to be viewed as an opportunity for further  declines down to the 1.8733 so the pound is not   as weak as euro and aussie but what interests me  about this is i do have quite a high conviction   target to the 1.8733 so three markets here in the  event that we get a hawkish interest rate decision   we see an increase in interest rates and we have  that new zealand dollar to the downside set up if   there's a failure to raise rates or for whatever  reason we start see a big sell-off in new zealand   from wednesday's meeting and finally  we're going to look at the yen pairs here   the yen pairs as noted in previous videos look  to be setting up for potential fifth waves and   i did say to you guys to be patient on this until  we start to see the end weekend and it has started   to weaken but you can see this is still corrective  what we really want to see is we want to see the   yen weakening and we want to see the market  rallying like this we don't have to try and   pick the bottom here let the market rally and as  this pulls back like this for a right shoulder we   can start to get involved somewhere in this area  so i do still like these markets to the upside but   i'd like to see a breakout of these flags  first so patience required on the yen pairs   once again we're just going to keep tabs on  these NZDJPY this might be a market to come to   on a hawkish or a raising of interest rates and  we start seeing new zealand rallying that could   very well catalyze the breakout to the upside and  this would be an interest rate decision set up as   well as the other ones we've looked at here based  on a strengthening of the new zealand dollar so   perhaps NZDJPY to the upside will be the first  of these yen pairs to come into play next week   we have CHFJPY which is not really a fantastic  currency pair because the yen is weak   or bit slightly bearish to neutral and the frank  is slightly bearish neutral so i would leave that   all together and the same applies for the AUDJPY  as it currently stands out of those yen pairs yes   it looks like we may be coming up to new highs but  with a weaker aussie i would leave this completely   so really the only yen pair i'd be interested  in going to next week outside us dollar yen   would probably be NZDJPY if we can get a  rally to the upside off of the interest   rate decision okay so let's wrap up with stocks  gold silver and bitcoin starting with the spx   now i noted in previous videos and in fact right  back i believe it was the 30th of october in that   weekly forex forecast i noted that the s p 500  was likely to start to correct and the upside   essentially was limited compared to the downside  now what's interesting we did slightly bounce and   last week we kind of grinded to the upside in  the spx but for anybody who has a portfolio   you're trading individual stocks you'll know that  last week although we grinded higher in spx a lot   of the individual stocks were selling off we saw  some financials selling off so some energy stocks   selling off and i've noted really since the  30th of october pretty much this entire month   that because the upside is limited in spx i  would still have protection and i personally   have protection in place because a deeper  correction could very well be on the cards   here and all of the data that i'm looking at and  the process i use for stocks is telling me to keep   protections in place and not to turn bullish or  super bullish on stocks once again certainly not   having just long positions in the stock market so  going into this week i am still looking further   advances overall in the s p 500 however it looks  to me like this could still be in a correction   i would not be surprised to see this pulling back  first before rallying to new highs just correcting   having a breather having to pause after this rally  before moving on to the 47 49.90 so to summarize  

my view across stocks the upside is limited in  my opinion compared to the downside although the   markets themselves are still technically bullish  and as a result if you like to trade just the   indices on their own i would be very careful about  going along or being along the industry right here   and if you're running a portfolio i would keep  protections in place i personally still have   my protections in place from the beginning of  the month as i say because the risk of further   declines in stocks outweighs in my opinion the  reward of further advances in the stock market   moving on to the nasdaq the nasdaq has rallied to  new highs and it's coming towards the target set   once again the chart is still technically bullish  and i would be looking further advances into the   1671.74 but i do still think there are elevated  downside risks in stocks as i said so i do think   it's a good time to have those protections in  place even when trading nasdaq stocks next is   the dow jones now the dow jones has actually  reversed to the downside and you can see that   if you are long the dow jones i think this is  a time to be patient if you're along the index   itself because we could see further declines  the other way this information is useful if   you don't trade the indices outright and you're  trading individual stocks if you are looking for   stocks to be short then stocks within the dow  jones industrial would be a good idea because   the dow jones compared to the other indices is  actually bearish right now technically so any   pullback in this market i would be not surprised  to see further declines the downside and the next   target is a 35 322.09 so if you'd like to trade  indices long only this would be an opportunity   in my opinion to sit on the sidelines and be  patient and if you're looking for potential short   opportunities then stocks within dow jones looks  like a good play right now next is the russell so   the small cap the industry which is most sensitive  to the business side called generally speaking   we're also trending to the downside near term we  are pulling back it looks to be just a correction   however we don't know how deep the corrections  can go this could easily pull back and it could   continue down and we could even come down to the  2298 before heading higher so again underscoring   the fact that protections really should be in  place for a portfolio if you like to trade the   russell outright i personally would wait in order  to be long for a reversal back to the upside   and i would take this bearish technical set up  here just as i said to be an opportunity to sit   on the sidelines and finally just as discussed  with the dow jones here if you are looking for   short opportunities short stocks within the  russell 2000 would also be a good idea because   the russell itself is more bearish than say  the spx and also the nasdaq and the final   stock market we're going to look at here is the  nifty now the nifty did start to break higher last   week and then it has immediately reversed and  started to break to the downside so once again   if you are trading the nifty and you like to be  long only this would be a warning to me i would   be out of this i wouldn't be prepared to hold  on to this to see if it comes down any further   and if you like to trade the nifty both ways i  would be technically bearish on this but just   remember shorting stocks especially not as part of  a long short portfolio just outright shorting them   is a little bit of a risky strategy and don't  forget your wrist reward is actually not very   good because your downside is only 100 which in  the nifty is not going to happen whereas your   upside is theoretically unlimited so i do think  we could be seeing a head and shoulders pattern   developing and any pullback in this area i would  be looking further declines down to the 17 437.95   so caution advised on the nifty and finishing off  with XAUUSD XAGUSD and bitcoin starting with gold   gold was a market that i highlighted in previous  videos we had this breakout to the upside momentum   came in looks like we're in a potential  third wave however the stronger dollar has   been capping moves to the upside over the last  week i am still bullish on XAUUSD and you can   see we did take out the target set almost to the  point at the one eight six nine point nine five   as it currently stands any pullback in XAUUSD  is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish   reversals i'm going to be looking up towards the  next q resistance the upside in the target set   the 1890.1 next is XAGUSD XAGUSD is another  market i've been highlighting to the upside   despite the fact we've had a stronger dollar  we did come quite close to the target and we   started to pull back as it currently stands this  just looks like a ball flag what i would like to   see is any deep correction in this market would  be viewed as an opportunity once again to look   for bullish reversals just as we saw over here in  this inverse head and shoulders are highlighted   any break to the upside would be viewed an  opportunity to look for further advances to   the 25.60 and last but not least we have bitcoin  now bitcoin did reverse to the downside last week  

i did note this inverse head and shoulders  breakout in previous videos and we took out   the targets in this area and in fact we don't  have the target on here because i removed it but   this took out the target almost to the point  somewhere in this area and then we started   to climb from the previous target so going  into this week i would favor short positions   in bitcoin and any pullback in this market  looks to be a potential right shoulder overhead and shoulders pattern and any  pullback i would be looking for bearish   reversals down to the next key of support to the  downside the target set and the 49317 so that   is it for me for this week guys as always i hope  you enjoyed this video and if you did please let   me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big  thank you to everybody who does that on a regular   basis and a big thank you to everybody  who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2021-11-22 17:44

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