Weekly Forex Forecast (21/03/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders john fortune here with this week's  weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a great   weekend last week was a great week even though we  had fomc it was the second week in a row that we   had seven out of nine forex pairs highlighted  in the weekly forex forecast video closing   successfully in the direction we were looking for  and in fact the only two pairs that didn't close   in the direction we were looking for were euro  dollar pound dollar and of course with fomc last   week those pairs were directly affected by this  and in the end the market discounted the hawkish   rate rise out of fomc last week and we're going to  look at that a bit more when we look at the dollar   and also at stocks in today's video so with that  said let's get into today's video so quick look   at the economic calendar for the upcoming week  and firstly just having a look at last week you   can see the interest rate decision out of the us  0.25 to 0.5 and out of the uk 0.5 to 0.75 so we   had rate hikes out of both the us and the uk last  week coming into this week not really too much we   need to pay attention to a bit of inflation data  speech by power which i don't anticipate as being   anything significant for the market but we do  have an annual budget release out of the uk on   wednesday something to consider with the pound  pairs and also we have an interest rate decision   out of switzerland on thursday now when we go  through the scorecards you'll see the swiss franc   is neutral heading into next week and i think  there are much better markets out there anyway   other than the swiss franc and we're going to  have a look at those in today's video but if you   are involved in swiss franc pairs just remember  next week that the smb want to have a policy   of swiss franc devaluation the swiss franc in  their opinion is too highly valued it's stronger   than they would like it to be and so i would  say if you are holding swiss franc pairs the   risk would be to the downside from the interest  rate decision next week since swiss devaluation   is the policy of the smb so just something to bear  in mind next week but i will unlikely be trading   the swiss franc pairs personally anyway and as  always if we just shoot one extra week ahead to   see if there's anything coming up you can see we  have a pretty bare calendar there isn't really   anything coming up we have non-farm payrolls  but nothing such as interest rate decision that   we would need to plan around in advance so with  fomc out the way last week we now have a pretty   clear run on the economic calendar for the next  couple of weeks not really anything we need to   pay attention to okay so a quick look at the  scorecard shows us that the australian dollar   has actually increased in strength from last  week the aussie was highlighted as one of the   best buys last saturday the new zealand  was also highlighted as a best long play   and the us dollar the us dollar struggled a little  bit last week because of fomc when you have an   interest rate decision as i've discussed many  times in the video you can see the market kind of   just correcting into that and then what happened  was on fomc itself the markets just discounted   the very hawkish rate rise and what that means  is we cover markets as a discounting mechanism   in the free gmt course and it basically means that  institutional investors they're buying in advance   let's say the dxy and then they  need because they bought over here   or they bought down at these levels they  need to sell their positions to put profits   and when you get a very hawkish fed coming out  they know retail traders are going to come in and   buy on this and so the very people who are looking  to buy are being sold to buy smart money who buys   in advance and that's what's known as the markets  has been a discounting mechanism and why when you   see sometimes like fomc last week a very hawkish  fed but you see the dollar selling off instead of   rallying and some people get confused by that but  that's why it's because markets are discounted   and you also saw this in the stock market you  saw selling into the actual fomc event and then   they used that event itself because you get lots  of people stepping in and trading the events   and so you get much more liquidity you use that  as a chance to unwind any price shorts and you get   that bounce like we saw in stocks and we're going  to look at those markets in today's video but just   understand that's what happened last week with the  dxy with stocks you saw the market's discount in   fomc and hopefully that explains to you gives you  an idea of how that takes place in the markets   so coming into this week the australian  dollar is scoring number four it's the   highest scoring currency this is actually scoring  overbought it means we should expect a correction   in the australian dollar over the next one  to four weeks i like the aussie dollar still   heading into next week despite the  fact that it's at this level which is   scoring as overbought and it does mean that  we may get one more push-up into the highs   when the market is overbought here it doesn't  mean you should go in and short it necessarily   some people like to pick tops and bottoms i  personally don't this really is telling you   to book profits into the highs if you've been long  for the last few weeks it's telling you over the   next one to four weeks you're probably going to  see a correction and so any push into new highs   is probably going to be the end of the overall  move to the upside before a near-term correction   so i do still like aussie based on what i'm  seeing in the charts despite the fact it's   scoring as overbought i think we may have one or  two more weeks to the upside in this and so it   is my favorite long currency heading into next  week the second currency to the upside is new   zealand dollar and then we also have the canadian  dollar which as you can see has increased in score   with a net change of plus two so although it only  scores one here you can see we're gaining momentum   from last week we are starting to move to the  upside and i wouldn't be surprised to see the cad   starting to score two three and perhaps  even four over the next four to six weeks   so although it only scores one i do like the  cad pairs to the upside next week because of   the momentum we're seeing to the upside from last  week and you can quite clearly see now the markets   aligning in a stagflationary play we've got  the commodity currencies right near the top   aussie new zealand cad and down the bottom  you can see we've got the japanese yen and   we also have the euro to the downside etc so  the forex markets are quite clearly pointing   towards a stagflationary economic condition and  going into next week i do favor as my favorite   currency pair aussie yen to the upside also going  to look at new zealand yen to the upside also   going to have a look at caddying to the upside in  today's video also going to be looking at EurAud   to the downside EurNzd to the downside which we  looked at last week which was also a good short   and also EurCad to the downside and of course  the strength the momentum we're seeing coming   into the cad is now because of that rally we  saw recently in crude oil we're starting to see   the canadian dollar catch up with that spike in  crude oil and we're also going to look at GbpAud   to the downside pound is even to the downside  GbpCad to the downside but just bear in mind   we have the annual budget next week so i favor  jpy and euro shorts over and above pound shorts   but there may be room for the odd pound short  either before or after the annual budget next week   and as you can see the swiss franc is basically  neutral so it's almost out of action next week   anyway i don't think it's either a good long or a  good shot and it's probably better to wait until   the s b come out next week and maybe the swiss  franc comes back into play the following week   so we're kind of looking at continuation of  the setups from last week but with the addition   of the canadian dollar pairs which are now  benefiting from that rally in crude oil   okay so let's have a look at the individual  currencies very quickly before moving on to   the pairs and as always looking at the daily chart  here just to get an overall picture of what the   individual currencies are doing looking at the  dxy you can see really nothing has happened in   the dxy it's just been correcting and if anything  it looks like it's forming a little bit of an abc   and i wouldn't be surprised to see this  continuing to the upside in the near future   it does score as plus one on the scorecards over  the next one to four weeks because it's forwards   looking the scorecards are forwards looking  by one to four weeks which is why they're one   month forward-looking scores and so although it's  currently neutral it is bullish to neutral so i   wouldn't want to be short the us dollar as it  currently stands and in fact we may even find   the us dollar starting to strengthen starting to  break higher against some of the other currencies   like the euro like the yen heading into next week  next is the euro now again just inverse what we're   looking at in the dollar you can see we pretty  much just have this bear flag setting up in the   daily chart this looks like nothing more than a  correction as it currently stands and i am looking   for the declines in the euro and it does score as  the second weakest currency on the scorecard so   i'd be looking for this move over the next one to  four weeks in euro 1.0744 and because we came back   and tested the previous low over here i wouldn't  be surprised to see this starting to weaken from   next week so euro shorts absolutely on  my radar for next week next is the pound   now the pound has also sold off quite strongly  and again as it currently stands in the daily   chart this just looks like a correction i am  looking for the pound to come down to the 1.2984   and although we have the budget next week i would  be bearish on the pound overall i do favor yen and   euro shorts for two reasons one because as i  said we have the budget the annual budget next   week which can cause some unexpected moves or it  increases the risk of the pound pairs or pound   trades but also because it doesn't score as low as  the yen or the euro anyway so it's only the third   best short as a currency stand so i do favor pound  shorts i wouldn't be surprised to see this rolling   over to the downside but i prefer euronian shorts  heading into next week next is the swiss franc now   the swiss franc is scoring as bearish to neutral  and you can see here we have actually broken out   of this sideways correction so overall i would  favor swiss franc short positions if you are long   the swiss franc you have two problems going into  next week one the swiss franc itself is structured   to the downside and it looks like just as we're  looking at in the euro in the pound this is just   a near-term correction for further downside but  also as i said the smb has a policy of swiss franc   evaluation so i wouldn't be surprised see them  talking down the swiss franc next week when we   have the interest rate decision out of switzerland  so i'm not personally going to be looking to   be long or short the swiss franc next week but  overall on balance what we're looking at tells   me that the risks are weighted to the downside  for the swiss franc next is the japanese yen i   highlighted last week this was actually quite a  big breakout and yen weak setups or yen shorts   were highlighted as a good thing to look for  the japanese yen was highlighted last week in   the currency pairs as some of my top or favorite  pairs to trade last week aussie enter the upside   us dollar yen to the upside new zealand yen to  the upside these were all great markets which were   highlighted in last week's video to the upside we  took out the target at the zero zero eight four   three sixty and as you can see we just have really  nice momentum to the downside in the japanese yen   so i would expect a short pullback in the yen and  when we look at the empires over here you will see   some of these have strong momentum to the upside  so we're going to be looking for those corrections   first but that correction will be an opportunity  to look for further declines in the end and when   we look at the end pairs here this is further  advances to the upside in those yen pairs so   i'm looking for the end to come down to the 0.0083  470 next and definitely yen shorts even if we have  

a small correction first are high up on my list  next week next is the cad now in last week's video   i highlighted this potential inverse head and  shoulder setting up and i said the canadian pairs   were not quite ready although i did anticipate  because of the oil price and cad strength and   i wouldn't be surprised to see them coming into  play over the next couple of weeks i said that   i believe in last week's video might have been the  week before but i think it was last week's video   and as you can see we have now started to break to  the upside and this is looking like the start of a   breakout this is where we're seeing that momentum  as well in the scorecards coming in plus two net   change last week and absolutely i am looking  for advances in the canadian pairs next week   and as a result cad long positions alongside  aussie and new zealand are one of my favorite   plays heading into next week next is the aussie  now you can see the aussie is approaching new   highs over here to 0.74650 any pullback in this  market i am looking further advances and you   can see it looks like it's starting to break  out of a major double bottom here and if this   stagflationary environment persists we're going  to see the commodity currencies and the aussie   especially continuing to rally to the upside  so i like aussie longs going into next week   it is overbought so maybe we only get one more  week of further upside in aussie we'll have to   see but for the time being i do still like aussie  long positions and finally we have the new zealand   dollar again benefiting from the stagflationary  scenario we're in looking for further advances to   the zero point six nine seven fifty and it is my  second favorite long heading into next week okay   so looking at the markets themselves starting with  crude oil you can see crude oil has pulled back   and retested the 95.580 which are highlighted as  a major breakout level to the upside previously we   tested it tested it then we broke through we came  back and retested and after retesting this level   we've now started to break to the upside so i am  going to be looking further advances in crude oil   next week any pullback in this area is viewed as  an opportunity to look for bullish setups into the   118.19 just bear in mind oil is very volatile  with the ongoing events in ukraine and so if  

you want to just avoid that volatility altogether  because you don't want to increase the volatility   in your returns or take too much risk because you  want risk adjusted returns or in other words the   most amount of returns for the least amount of  risk then you can leave crude oil all together   however if we do start to rally to the upside you  are going to see derivatives of crude oil maybe   energy stocks certainly the canadian dollar which  we're going to be looking at benefiting from this   so you don't have to trade crude oil if you don't  like the volatility you can look for derivatives   instead but i am looking for crude oil to advance  towards the 118.19 next week next is aussie yen   aussien is my favorite market going into this  week you can see we took out both targets to   the upside last week and then some this was  a fantastic market highlighted in last week's   weekly 4x forecast video going into this week  look at the momentum since we broke out of here   this is really really nice and what i'd be looking  for now in this week we need to see some pull back   i wouldn't want to buy it right at the top here  but any correction in this market is going to   be viewed as an opportunity to look once again  for bullish entries and i'm going to be looking   up towards the 89.07 next is your aussie i really  like your aussie to the downside next week we have   this huge bear flag you can see looks like an a  b and a c up here and we've broken out of here   now and i do think coming down to the 1.4652 is a  high probability move in this market what i'd like   to see is always is any pullback in this area  and any pullback like this would actually form   a head and shoulders pattern any pullback in  this area would be viewed as an opportunity   to look for bearish reversals and bearish setups  down to the 1.4652 next is pound aussie pound   aussie was a short from last week and we did come  down and we're very close to the target set last   week at 1.7747 so anyone involved from last week  you are looking now almost taking out the target  

and i would expect for this target to be taken out  this week if you weren't involved from last week   what i'd be looking for is if we take out this  target first and then start to bounce like this   any pullback would be viewed as an opportunity to  look for further sell-offs into the 1.7698 and if   we can break through here on to the 1.76 270. so  any pullback in pound aussie next week is going to   be viewed as a good opportunity to look for shorts  it's not highlighted in gold here because of the   twin aspects of the budget next week out  of the uk and also the fact it only scores   as the third weakest currency after yen and after  euro so aussie yen and audio my two favorite pairs   heading into next week next is NzdJpy another  really good market from last week we took out both   targets and then some heading to this week again  you can see the momentum from this previous   correction we've broken above this correction  here with really strong momentum so any pullback   in this market and the deeper the better as it  gives us better wrist reward towards the targets   any pullback is going to be viewed as an  opportunity to look for bullish breakouts like   this i'm going to be looking up towards the next  key of resistance the 82 74. new zealand yen is my  

third favorite pair heading into next week next is  euro new zealand another really nice looking pair   because we have this big bear flag sell-off again  looks like an abc correction and we've started   breaking out to the downside a move down to the  one point five six six seven is in my view a high   probability move and so any pullback heading into  next week and again any pullback here will give us   this head and shoulder set up any pullback will  be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish   breakouts like this down to the 1.5667 next is  pound new zealand pound new zealand also looks   like a good short we have this kind of range down  here like this you can see this correction after   this momentum sell off to the downside i'm looking  for the declines but again it's not highlighted   in gold because of the same reasons discussed  four pound ozzy but any pullback in this market   would be viewed as an opportunity to look further  declines into the one point eight eight five nine   next is cad yen kadyan also looks really nice  heading into next week and it is in my top five   any pullback in this market is simply viewed  as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts   into the 95.35 so definitely keep my eye on cad  yen next week next is eurocad not highlighted as   one of my top five heading into next week however  it does still look very likely to head down to   the 1.3752 and is on my watch list any pullback  in this market next week is simply viewed as an   opportunity to look for bearish reversals down  to the 1.3752 and if we can break through here   going to be looking down towards target 2 at  1.3523 next is pound cad again not highlighted   is one of my favorite i much prefer the yen and  the euro pairs to short however any pullback in   this market would be viewed as it currently stands  as an opportunity to look for bearish breakouts   down to the 1.6416 you can see even just  by eyeballing this we're starting to lack a  

little bit of momentum in this market and that  is because the pound is a little bit stronger   than the euro than the yen and so these sell-offs  to the downside are struggling more than they are   let's say in EurCad or to the upside in CadJpy and  finally on here we have the dollar pairs because   we might start to see the dollar rallying from  that kind of abc correction we discussed earlier   when we looked at the dollar index us dollar yen  last week was a fantastic market we took out the   target set at the 118.55 not highlighted as one  of my preferred trades i prefer aussie yen new   zealand gen and even cadian over this market next  week however it is still on my watch list and i am   looking further advances so any pullback in this  market first will be viewed as an opportunity to   look for bullish breakouts into the 119.99 next is  EurUsd we cover EurUsd every single week because   lots of people like to trade EurUsd however i  think there are better markets to trade next week   i am looking for the declines in this market i'm  treating this just as a big abc correction what   i'd like to see is any brake lower in this market  like this would be viewed as an opportunity to   look for a pullback and further declines into the  1.0781 and finally we have pound dollar again i'm  

just viewing this as a pullback and if we start  to see the dxy which is currently just doing this   if we start to see it come down and start to  bounce and rally i would be looking for further   declines in this market as well so what i'll be  looking for is any brake lower like this next week   if we start to see the dollar index rallying and  it might not be next week may even be the week   after which is why it's slightly lower down on the  list compared to these markets but any breakdown   like this would be viewed as an opportunity to  look for a pullback and further declines into   the 1.2979 okay so finishing off with stocks gold  silver and bitcoin starting with the spx you can   see last week we had a rally to the upside this  is a short covering rally after fomc everybody   who was short or the institutional investors  smart money who was short used the liquidity   around fomc to cover their shorts and that's why  we got this rally to the upside this has all the   characteristics of a short covering rally which  is that it's sharp and it happened quickly and i   wouldn't be surprised to see stocks moving higher  next week just bear in mind if you are going to be   long or trade stocks to the upside as it currently  stands the overall trend is down so your trading   essentially counter trend as it currently stands  that would change on a big break above the four   five eight one would have to break up like this  and then pull back but as it currently stands any   long positions should be considered counter trend  and i am looking in spx for the market to come up   to the four five eight one point seven eight  if you'd rather stay out of the stock market   altogether than to trade this counter trend to  the upside there's nothing wrong with that next   is the nasdaq the nasdaq also had a short covering  rally and we've broken the high over here which is   actually a double bottom in the nasdaq but it's  a double bottom in an overall downtrend so the   risk is that you break like this and then you fail  maybe at the target and then you come down for the   next move down so again it is currently structured  to the upside but you would be trading this   counter trend as it currently stands if you're  involved long there's nothing wrong again waiting   on the sidelines looking for the next impulse move  to the downside if that's what you would rather   do or of course if there's a bigger reversal to  the upside then you can start to look to be long   in the next couple of weeks just remember when you  have stagflation you can see stocks getting kind   of corrective because you're looking at low growth  high inflation and you can see even here there is   no real clear direction in the nasdaq we're kind  of back to where we were at the beginning of the   year almost down here in january so it is near  term bullish but just bear in mind this should   be considered counter trend to the upside  as it currently stands next is the dow jones   again we had a break to the upside in the dow  jones it does look like we've got some momentum   in here so i would be looking for any pullback  in this market into the three five five nine four   five once again as this stands this should still  be considered a counter trend move because overall   the trend is still to the downside we're making  lower lows and lower highs and counter trend moves   are always more risky so again you don't have to  trade counter trend you could just sit this out   and wait for the next impulse wave or for clearer  market direction in the stock market next is the   russell now i have been saying in previous videos  the russell is kind of in no man's land it's in an   area where it could break higher or we could start  a bigger selloff to the downside and because it's   been in this condition it's just been correcting  and last week we had the short covering rally but   the key error is the 2107.08 this was the major  breakout to the downside where we started this   downtrend and so we could just come in and re-test  this and start to roll over to the downside so   again there is no despite the short covering rally  there is no clear breakout to the upside as it   currently stands if we break the 2107.08 which is  right here the next target and we break this with   momentum that would be the sign of a potential  inverse head and shoulders or even a double bottom   if you wanted to take these two points here and  that may be the start of a reversal to the upside   so because we're so close to the 2107 there's not  really much potential here to the upside i would   much rather wait next week for the russell  just to have a look at it see what it does   and see if we start to break higher with momentum  which could signal the new ball leg to the upside   over the next few months or if we fail at this  double top and we start to break down and if we   come down and break this level down here over the  next couple of weeks that would be the start of in   all likelihood a major selloff to the downside  in the russell so i said previously the russell   is in no man's land and it hasn't broken out of  there yet patience still required on the russell   in my opinion finally we have the nifty last  week the nifty broke above the red line which   shows you the reversal line now it's down here at  the 15716 so as long as we're above the 15716 i'm   looking breakouts to the upside any pullback in  this market we come down close the gap is going   to be viewed as an opportunity to look for further  advances into the 17 485.35 so overall especially   on u.s indices i am kind of bullish to neutral  i'm bullish but it's counter trend and there's   nothing wrong if you want to wait on the sidelines  for more information to come in over the next   couple of weeks in terms of the us indices okay so  wrapping up with gold silver and bitcoin starting   with gold i am still bullish on gold we had a big  rally to the upside then we had a big sell-off   to the downside and you're just looking at  volatility here just because we had a big sell-off   doesn't mean it's necessarily bearish it's just a  big sell-off because we had a big run-up and a big   rally and the whole asset itself is volatile so  any continued pullback in this market especially   with the dollar starting to weaken a little bit  i am going to be looking for a breakout to the   upside and i'm going to be looking up towards the  next care resistance the upside and the 2001.49

next is silver i am still bullish on silver and as  you can see it looks like we're starting to break   out of this recent pullback in silver now we've  broken up and it looks like we're forming a ball   flag any continued pullback in this market would  be viewed as an opportunity to look for breakouts   to the upside i'm going to be looking up towards  the 26.89 and last but not least we have bitcoin i   have been bullish on bitcoin over the last couple  of weeks but we haven't really gone anywhere   we've had a couple of rallies to the upside and  then we corrected reality outside and corrected   so any pullback in this market is still viewed as  an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts or   bullish reversals i'm still looking up towards  the next care resistance to the upside at the   four five six four nine so that is it for me for  this week guys as always i hope you enjoyed this   video and if you did please let me know by liking  sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody   who does that on a regular basis and a big thank  you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel   so far i want to wish you all a fantastic  weekend and i want to wish you all the best   in your trading next week the only thing left to  say is take care and don't forget to trade safely you

2022-03-22 08:18

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