Weekly Forex Forecast (21/02/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (21/02/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having   a great weekend we're going to kick off with a  quick review of the key events heading into the   next week or two and we do have some interest rate  decisions coming up that we need to pay attention   to and we have an interest rate decision next  week that we have to take into account and it   forms part of my trading plan heading into next  week we're then going to look at the scorecards   before looking at the individual currencies  in the futures markets and we're going to   then move on to the pairs themselves to see  which markets are setting up the best this   week before finishing as always with stocks  gold silver and bitcoin and last week at the   beginning of the week i tweeted out that i'm  going to be paying special attention to gold   last week because of the big breakout to the  upside we've been talking about over the last   few weeks and we did get that breakout last week  and it does mean gold once again is going to be   quite a big focus of my trading plan heading  into next week i'm going to cover that more   at the end of the video so if we just have a quick  look at the economic calendar for the upcoming   week you can see we do have a bank holiday out of  the us on monday so monday is probably just going   to do nothing it's probably just going to move  sideways and you might even have some inside days   the week then really starts from tuesday onwards  and heading into wednesday we have an interest   rate decision out of new zealand this is really  the key thing we need to pay attention to next   week because new zealand pairs are unlikely  to do anything between monday and wednesday   and then you're likely to get the moves  from wednesday into the end of the week   you can see there is expected to be a raising of  interest rates and so this interest rate decision   is something i'm going to be paying attention to  and it's going to form parts of my plan heading   into next week and apart from that we have some  gdp data but nothing else really we need to pay   too much attention to for next week it's really  just the interest rate decision on wednesday out   of new zealand and if we skip ahead a week just to  see what we've got coming up in a couple of weeks   we have an australian interest rate decision and  also we have a canadian interest rate decision and   on top of that we also have non-fund payrolls that  week as well so we may see the australian dollar   and maybe the canadian dollar lacking a little bit  of volatility this week heading into that however   usually when you're two weeks out you can still  look to trade those currencies but certainly   the week of the interest rate decision you want  to be waiting primarily for that to take place   before looking to position in if you think  you have a good idea of where the market's   going to go from the interest rate decision  then by all means you can position beforehand   but if you want those steady consistent returns  from the interest rate decisions rather than the   kind of gamble before the event takes place it's  better to wait for those follow-throughs and then   look for positions in that direction so just  a note that we do have interest rate decisions   coming up in a couple of weeks as well but i am  still happy to trade aussie and cad pairs this   week and in fact when we look at the markets the  canadian dollar is something that figures into   my trading plan quite a bit next week and i'm  going to explain why as we go through the video   okay so if we look at the scorecards going into  next week the first thing that stands out is look   at the neutrality of the currencies the currencies  are extremely choppy they are lacking clear   direction and the only currencies with any real  strength or weakness heading into this week   is the pound and is the end where we only have  we do not have a strong bullish bias this would   be strong bullish this is just bullish and this is  bullish to neutral and to the downside bearish to   neutral these are all bearish neutral so in other  words just neutral these six currencies and then   bearish and then strong bearish buyers so we  have six currencies which are neutral and we   have one currency with a somewhat bullish bias  or a bullish bias and a currency with a bearish   bias but not strong bearish buyers are not strong  bullish buyers so you can see with your eyes what   the market condition is because whenever we're  trading we always want to understand what is the   market condition and when the market condition is  trending the markets are moving you will have more   opportunities you will make more money you want  to take more risk when the market is correcting   or it's neutral you will struggle to find trading  opportunities you'll find things turn on you more   and that's when you want to be taking less risk  so understanding the market condition is extremely   important if you want to generate consistent  returns otherwise what happens is you make tons   of money when the market's moving and then you  just give it all back when the market's correcting   so it's extremely important to identify okay  the market's moving it's trending therefore   i can risk more okay the market's now correcting  opportunities are likely to dry up therefore i'm   going to risk less or take less trades and so when  we look at scorecards it's quite straightforward   how we can determine that when that's going to  take place and that is when the euro and the   dollar start to score together and the first time  we saw this was on the fourth of february so the   fourth of this month we saw both the euro and the  dollar both strong for the first time all the way   throughout january we had the dollar on one side  either strong or weak and we had the euro on the   opposite side and this is a sign that the markets  are moving that we can start to take more risk   and all the way throughout january every  single week the top scoring currency pair   closed in the direction we were looking for  every single week without fail and then on 4th   of february for the first time the dollar and the  euro both turned positive and that was the sign   that the markets are going to start to get  corrective opportunities are going to dry up and   the market condition is changing to a more neutral  condition and so i highlighted that for you at the   start of the month it's time to reduce risk after  a good january we can still trade i always trade   every single week but when the euro and the dollar  are scoring together i will take less trade i'll   take less risk and i will spend more time trying  to find the best setups which is what we're going   to be doing in today's video where are the number  one setups heading into next week with a ranging   market condition and a real lack of direction  across the currency pairs and there are a couple   of opportunities that look to be setting up the  best as we'll see so let's have a quick look at   the individual currencies here we'll start with  the dollar index we're on the daily chart just to   zoom out a bit to get a general idea of what's  going on here with the individual currencies   and you can see i have a blue arrow here this was  the 4th of february it was this green candle here   and this was the first time we got a signal from  the scorecards to say the euro and the dollar are   both scoring positively they're both strong and  therefore we should be forwards looking because   the scorecards are forwards looking they are  actually a leading indicator and it was telling   us right here on the fourth that we should over  the next few weeks be looking to reduce our risk   not to be taking the same amount of risk  or trades as we were in january because   opportunities are drying up and we're likely to  see over the next few weeks the market getting   choppy getting corrective and that's exactly what  we had ever since this day here you can see we've   hardly moved anywhere we went from here to here so  we really have had no movement over the last two   weeks or so ever since the scorecards first told  us that the market was going to transform into a   more neutral or a low volatility environment  now what's interesting throughout january as   you can see the dollar itself didn't actually  go anywhere but the difference was in january   we started here the month you can see this is the  4th of january we started here we came down and   then we rallied high and then we sold off low  into february so although we didn't actually   go anywhere in terms of the dollar index itself we  didn't trend anywhere we just bounced down bounced   up and then bounced down again we actually  had volatility we had the market you can see   selling off then rallying and then selling off  and because of that there was volatility across   the currency pairs and that's why we had such  good trading opportunities in january so the   first thing to note is the euro and the dollar  are both still strong so it's still telling us to   expect low volatility market conditions and to  reduce our trading risk but the uptrend in the   dollar itself is still intact you can see the  uptrend is still intact although it has been   in a range since december here so no real change  in the technicals for the dxy and as it currently   stands if we are reversing to the downside in  the dxy it looks like we're going to come up and   attempt probably to test this level over here and  then the 9704 and that would be the point at which   you could see a right shoulder and then a further  decline in the dxy if this is going to be the top   but for the time being you can see the technicals  here in the dollar index reflect what we saw in   scorecards which is a bullish to neutral currency  next is the euro now the euro is just doing the   opposite of what we saw here in the dxy and i did  note when we traded into this area over here that   we would likely see this was a couple of weeks  back we'd like to see the euro just flag into the   downside here and this is because this is forming  a potential right shoulder here it is not yet an   inverse head and shoulders as it currently stands  this is just a range in an overall downtrend so   we should be looking for this to come down a  bit further the question is whether it starts   to bottom out over here and then reverse higher  for the inverse head and shoulders as it currently   stands over although you can see in the futures  market this is really a neutral currency just like   the dxy it's been in the range since december  next is the pound now the pound is the highest   scoring currency this week and you can see it does  look like in the pound index here we are starting   to form a flag and now we're looking to come up  take out the previous high over here in the 1.3739   so i do quite like the pound it does even look  like it's starting to break out somewhat and pound   strength as you can see is going to be something  i'm going to be looking at heading into next week   next is the swiss franc the swiss franc is really  quite choppy and again not surprising this is   neutral in the scorecards look at this technically  speaking we're really right in the middle of a   range and it hasn't really gone anywhere although  it is slightly bearish to neutral here because we   are structured to the downside after this double  top break here but as you can see only really   bearish to neutral lack in any real direction  next is the japanese yen now the japanese yen   is structured to the downside and it is the  weakest currency going into this week in terms   of the scorecards the slight issue we have here as  you can see it's actually lacking momentum so yes   the japanese yen is weak so i am still interested  at looking at pound yen next week but when you   start to lack momentum like this you have to ask a  question are we going to start to reverse or break   higher so what i would also like to do pairing  pound yen when we go through the markets here   with some risk off currencies because pound yen is  a risk-on move pound yen to the upside is risk on   but if we start to see stocks weighing on the  currencies and we start to get a bit of a flight   safety we also want to have some of those risk  off currencies we can pivot to and so that's why   although we have this risk on setup with pound  yen that'll be looking at i am going to have   other positions to look to trade both ways because  the markets are neutral and because we're lacking   momentum in the end we risk a bit of a break  to the upside next is the cad now the cad is   an interesting one because although it's currently  structured overall to the upside again just like   the other currencies it's really stuck in a range  here the problem is as i said it's not so much   when the market's ranging like this the problem is  when the market starts to range like this that's   when you get opportunities drying up when for  10 or 15 days the market just moves from here   to here that's when you get opportunities drying  up so a kind of a range like this you can still   trade there's still opportunities but this becomes  very difficult to find trading opportunities   so with this coiled up like this this is likely to  start to make a move one way or the other and when   we look at crude oil this week this is going to  play into my trading plan for next week because   although we're currently structured to the upside  we are neutral i do think we are starting to get   a top in crude oil as we're going to see and  that's why i do like a couple of these canadian   week pairs heading into next week these are  risk off currencies so pound cad to the upside   us dollar cad to the upside cad frank to the  downside are all risk off pairs so it gives us   opportunities to trade risk on or risk off next  week as more information comes into the market   and finally we have aussie you can see the aussie  is also stuck in a range it's slightly bullish   because it's got this counter trend move over here  but really you can see this is just bullish to   neutral and then finally we have the new zealand  which does look to be forming a bear flag and i   question whether we're going to get a failure  to see the raising of interest rates next week   and that drives new zealand down to make new lows  to continue this bear flag which we're currently   seeing to the downside so when the markets are  trending you have an interest rate decision   sometimes this can be a bit frustrating because  the market stops moving for a few days however   with the markets being as flat as they are and  lacking any real volatility the interest rate   decision on wednesday out of new zealand is  a little bit of a breath of fresh air because   we're going to very likely get volatility and  that's going to allow opportunities to come   back into the market so as you can see down here  now when we move on to the pairs the new zealand   interest rate decision on wednesday is going to  be quite a big part of my plan next week and you   may find actually that the new zealand pairs  are the primary place in which you're going   to find setups next week because it may be one  of the few places that starts to get volatile   and starts to move okay so let's have a look at  the markets themselves starting with crude oil and   crude oil is a market that i've been highlighting  is a market to the upside but over the last few   weeks i said to you i'm not interested in being  long crude oil itself because i do think crude oil   is starting to a lack momentum and b likely to top  out there is a very strong key area of resistance   up to 95 58 and 46. we traded into this this was  the previous target we took out the target but i   do believe now this could be the high in crude oil  and i would only like to get long crude oil once   again if we break through here with momentum and  then we start to do this that would be the sign   that we're likely to continue to the upside so if  we have now traded into the major area of 95 58   and crude oil really is going to start to roll  over to the downside first of all i still don't   want to be looking for long positions in crude oil  because i mean really it hasn't gone anywhere over   the last few weeks just kind of chopped around  took out the target and pulled back but the second   thing is this may now be starting to point towards  a decline in the canadian dollar and you remember   for the last 10 days or so the cad was in a very  very tight range so if this goes it's going to go   likely with momentum and when you look at the  scorecards themselves the canadian dollar because   of poor economic performance has actually been  flat it's been completely neutral as crude oil has   run up to the downside so if crude oil is rallying  to new highs as it has been and the canadian   dollar is failing to catch a bid what do you think  is going to happen to the canadian dollar if crude   oil then starts to decline you're going to see it  coming down quite steeply so i know the canadian   dollar is currently neutral in the scorecards what  we're doing here is we're kind of preempting a   turn which when you try and preempt turns you can  get your fingers burnt but there isn't really a   huge amount of opportunities in the market under  the current conditions so this is an opportunity   i'm looking at i am looking at anticipation of  crude oil reversing lower and then as a result   because the canadian dollar has failed to rally  with a strong crude oil i'm looking for that to   weigh in quite heavily on the canadian dollar and  that is my second primary trade idea after pound   yen to the upside heading into next week it's  that reversal in wti to the downside and then   a weakening and a breakout to the downside in the  canadian dollar from that tight two week range   so next is pound yen now pound yen is the highest  scoring currency pair but the problem i have here   and the reason why i've added in these other  currencies is that when we look at this   there is no momentum in pound yen you  can see we're in a very tight range here   in the four hour chart and there's no momentum i  mean this thing is just stuck sideways and when   you have the market doing this it is at risk of  reversing lower so what i would like to do here   going into next week if i am going to be looking  at pound yen to the upside which is a risk on   currency pair and that's because it's the currency  pair thrown up by the scorecards although we know   they can reverse there's a greater chance of these  reversals because of the euro and the dollar both   being strong what i would like to do is i would  only like to trade this to the upside next week   if we start to get some momentum so if pound yen  starts to come down like this and then it breaks   highs not like this but we start to break higher  with momentum that would be when i would start to   look for pound yen into the 158.20 and if you have  a risk on pair like pound yen and you also have   risk off pairs like poundcad us dollar cad and cad  frank what will happen is one will likely work and   the other one won't so you don't have to trade  both if you're waiting for the breakout because   if pound yen breaks to the upside like this  you're unlikely to see any momentum in pound cad   whereas if pound cad when we come to it next  starts to break higher with momentum like this and   we start to see risk off coming into the markets  then this is not going to break out with momentum   to the upside it's just going to continue to do  this in which case you don't need to trade it you   filter it out because you've had no momentum break  to the upside does that make sense so it allows   you when you wait for the breakout it allows you  to potentially trade the markets either way and   although one might work and one won't you will  generally be kept out of the one that won't work   because you won't have that momentum break first  so i hope that makes sense as we go through the   next few pairs so pound you into the upside but  only if it starts to break with momentum higher   pound cad now pound cad has already broken out  higher and again this is a play on the potential   top in crude oil what i'd like to hear in pound  cad is just what i said in pound yen if the   market starts to pull back you can see we don't  have any momentum above the previous hydras yet   if it starts to pull back and then breaks out with  momentum look for the pullback and then look for   the move into the 1.7432 and again if you imagine  what we just looked at in pound yen because   this is risk on and this is risk off you'll  likely see these moving in opposite directions   so if we get this breakup like this in pound cad  and a pullback impound yen you'll likely see it   just doing this it will just start to sell off if  pound yen starts to break out of the correction   to the upside like this then what you may see  is instead of the break higher in pound cad   you just see pound cad correcting lower like this  does that make sense you don't have to trade both   you trade the one which provides the breakout next  is us dollar cad this is again a play if we do get   the reversal lower in crude oil and we start to  sell off sharply in the canadian dollar and the   reason i'm looking at us dollar cad here is this  is a risk-off move to the upside and we've been   correcting in a very tight range almost coiling  and so again if we get that breakout what i'd   like to see first is we've already started  breaking above the height here i'd like to   see this break with momentum and then you can look  for the pullback and that would be the opportunity   into the 1.2842 and finally cad frank also a play  on any reversal in crude oil which should bring  

the canadian dollar lower you can see  we've already started to break out of here   and we're starting to get a little bit of momentum  into this market so again what i would like to see   is any continued momentum like this this will  be the opportunity to look for a pullback and   any pullback in this market would be viewed as the  opportunity to look for shorts into the 0.7189 and   then on to the 0.7159 so you have three markets  here which are risk off one market which is risk   on that i'm looking at and if you wait for the  breakout before trading either of these markets   what you'll find is the risk off pairs will break  out and the risk off one won't or you'll find the   risk on pair will break out and the risk off pairs  won't next is euro dollar now euro dollar is still   corrective and ever since we traded into the  high over here we've just kind of corrected and   flagged down and i don't see this ending anytime  next week before i start to trade euro dollar i   would like to see this break in with momentum  i think what's most likely to happen because   both these currencies are still fairly  strong we're going to just get continued   correction the market just continues to crack  down we'll probably be coming down to try and   attempt to take out this left shoulder over  here and that will be the next decision point   whether we continue lower for the trend or whether  we start to bounce but this move from here to here   is probably the next move for this currency pair  it is not highlighted as one of my favorite pairs   because of how choppy it is but we do cover euro  dollar every week i won't be trading euro dollar   next week however okay so after pound yen as a  primary idea heading into next week to the upside   and also the canadian weakness pairs as a second  trading idea heading into next week the third   idea that i'm looking at heading into next week in  the forex markets is the new zealand interest rate   decision on wednesday so between now wednesday i  won't be doing anything with these pairs however   the first three pairs i will be looking at in  the event we get a sell-off awakening of the   new zealand dollar on the interest rate decision  and that might be because they're expecting an   interest rate rise and perhaps it doesn't come in  which case the new zealand dollar sells off and   what you'll see is this will likely continue to  correct and then on wednesday you have to rally up   and then look for the pullback that will  be the opportunity next week right here   that i'll be looking for into the 2.0611 and  because the pound is structured as the strongest   currency this is my preferred new zealand week  set up on the interest rate decision next week   next is euro new zealand again only looking  to trade this if we get a sell-off in the new   zealand dollar from the interest rate decision  the market is likely to continue to correct down   like this and then on wednesday if we get that  weakening you'll see a rally to the upside and   then any pullback will be the opportunity to look  further advances in this market back up to the   previous high first and foremost and then maybe  over the next couple of weeks on to the 1.7403   and the third new zealand dollar week set up is  new zealand dollar to the downside itself i did   highlight the fact that the new zealand dollar  index looks to be forming a big bear flag which   is what we're doing here as well in new zealand  and so if we get especially if we start to get   a bit of a stronger dollar next week if we get  a weakening of the new zealand dollar look for   a sharp sell-off like this and then any pullback  will be the opportunity from wednesday thursday   friday for shorts into the previous low first and  foremost and then on to the target of the 0.6491  

and the final two pairs here new zealand new  zealand cad are in the event we get a strong new   zealand dollar we perhaps get that interest rate  rise and the reserve bank of new zealand come out   extra hawkish and it causes the new zealand dollar  to rally to the upside in that scenario i'll be   looking towards new zealand and new zealand  cad and what i would expect to see there in   new zealand yen is a continued correction down  into wednesday and then any rally to the upside   especially if we start to get crude oil reversing  in terms of new zealand cad but any rally to   the upside i will be looking for a pullback and  then a move into the 78 24. and new zealand cad   as i said if we get the especially if we get the  reversal to the downside and we start to see the   new zealand cad weakening what i would like to  see is if we get a correction into wednesday   and then on the interest rate decision itself  we get the rally higher look for the pullback   in new zealand cad and then i'm going to be  looking for further advances into the 0.8592   so there's a common theme here which you can  see when the markets are lacking volatility   and the outlook is less certain you can be more  reactive than predictive you don't have to always   try and predict the market the idea is to make  money not to be right in your opinion you think   something's going to go up and then it goes up  great you've made a good call that actually is   not very important what's important here is making  money so when you have a very very clear trend and   the market is really trending to the upside  you see all of the risk on currency scoring   positively let's say and all of the risk of  currency scoring negatively and you have a   really nice trend to the upside let's say in  something like pound yen and you've got momentum   you can be predictive you can say i'm going to  predict this trend is going to continue we're   going to see higher highs and higher highs because  the market condition is trending and that is what   happens in a strong uptrend you get higher highs  and higher lows but if the outlook is less certain   perhaps you have an interest rate decision and  so the outcome of that event is less certain   or you have a situation where the market is kind  of oscillating between risk on risk off which is   what we're seeing right now at the start  of last week we saw the markets reflating   we saw aussie new zealand euro all pushing higher  against the yen and then at the end of the week we   saw the reverse happen the yen and the swiss  franc they started to strengthen against the   reflationary currencies or the risk on currencies  we saw risk off so risk on at the start of the   week risk off towards the end of the week so when  you have market conditions being a little bit less   certain like that get reactive let the market  break out let the market show you the direction   it's moving and then look to trade it you don't  have to always try and predict the market and   especially if you have an interest rate decision  or if you have low volatility conditions you're   probably going to be wrong more times than you're  right trying to call the market or be predictive   with the next moves in the market so three-part  plan heading into next week for the forex pairs   first and foremost the risk on currency pair of  pound yen if we start to break higher i'll be   trading those risk on moves to the upside if that  fails to materialize and pound yen just starts to   reverse lower look for the breakout in pound cad  us dollar cad and cad frank because that will   signal risk off so as pound yen fails to break  out risk off currency should start to break out   and then also going to be reactive on the interest  rate decision with pound new zealand euro new   zealand and new zealand dollar for any big  sell-off in the new zealand dollar and new zealand   yen and new zealand cad for any strengthening of  the new zealand dollar next week so we're going   to move on to stocks gold silver and bitcoin and  in fact gold is my favorite market going into next   week it is once again going to be the market  i'm going to be paying the most attention to   okay so moving on stocks and starting with spx  last week i highlighted the 4305.29 and the fact   that the spx was stretched the downside as you  can see when we go through here we are seeing   a number of these stock markets starting to  sell off towards the previous lows and this   is why i've added in those risk off currency  pairs next week because if that happens you're   going to start to see a bit of a flight safety and  pound yen is not going to break out to the upside   instead you'll get those risk-off pairs breaking  out which are highlighted alongside pound yen   so any continued pullback in spx as it currently  stands is an opportunity to look further declines   into the 4305.29 and if we break through here on  to the 422958 which is a very significant low i   mean we're at a point here where the market  could either start to rally to the upside   or if it breaks the 42 to 9.58 the market could be  in serious trouble when you're at a decision point  

like this in the stock market you don't have to  go out and take big bets on which way it's going   to go either let the market start to break to  the upside in which case it will probably form   a higher low over here and then reverse higher and  then you can start to get bullish once again or if   we start to break the 42 to 958 with momentum  like this that would actually start a potential   bear market in the spx as it currently stands  and then you can get bearish on the spx as it   currently stands this is a correction and this is  just a low so we're right at the area where this   could go either way so if you want to look for  shorts into the 430529 that's entirely up to you   but i would rather stay out of the stock market or  the indices at the very least themselves until we   get a clearer sense of direction are we going to  start to bounce form a higher low and then rally   because if we do break the 4591 with momentum like  this and we start to we form a high low over here   and then we break up it's not going to go all  the way to 5000 in a day it's going to pull back   and then it's going to rally it's going to pull  back and it's going to realise you can have lots   of opportunities to buy you don't have to be on or  in the market at the exact turning point you can   wait for the first break and then you can trade  the rest of the movie you can capture the rest   of the 90 you don't have to have that first 10  percent so i would personally rather wait for   clearer direction but it is currently structured  to the downside with four three zero five two nine   as the next key of support next is the nasdaq also  structured to the downside approaching the target   of 13784.98 exactly the same applies to the nasdaq  as the spx any shorts into 1378498 could be risky   because we may start see a bounce somewhere in  this area and then we can continue up above the   1506 2.29 until we get clearer direction i'm not  interested in taking any significant positions   in the stock markets but a key thing to take away  from these charts even if you're not trading them   is that stock markets are still selling off to  the downside and this is what's bringing risk off   into the currency pairs this would be the  reason for pound yen to fail next week and   to set off those risk off currencies highlighted  so overall patience required on the stock market   next is dow jones also selling off took out the  target of the three four zero two three point   ten last week again you could look at this and say  well is this now going to be an inverse head and   shoulders where we start to turn at the previous  shoulder and break higher like this and we break   above here and this starts a new trend to the  upside or are we going to break here and this   becomes a one a two and then we kickstart a third  wave to the downside we're right at that decision   point you don't have to be involved when it starts  either to the upside or the downside as i said   in this kind of scenario i prefer to wait  if it breaks higher you'll have plenty of   opportunities to ride the next up leg if  it breaks lower and we start a bear market   you'll have plenty of opportunities to short  into the bare leg you don't have to position   right as the market is making a decision so  the next target to the downside is the 33 628   but again patience required in my opinion i'm  not going to be trading these as it currently   stands i'm going to wait for a breakout either  way and clear direction in the stock market   next is the russell now last week the russell  actually broke head and shoulders to the downside   from the two zero eight six point one five so it  broke down here pulled back and it retested and   now it's broken and shoulders to the downside  so again either the head and shoulders is going   to fail and this will kickstart a new break to  the upside and all of these sellers will have   their stop losses taken out and this will  kickstart the impulse wave to the upside   or this is going to continue down to the 1929.38  and you might be saying well all you're saying  

is it could go up or it could go down well that  is what i'm saying so in that scenario i would   rather not trade this i'd prefer to wait for a  clearer direction but if you absolutely have to   trade this i would prefer to look for shorts into  the 192930 and finally in stocks we have the nifty   the nifty is also structured to the downside and  we've bounced and this bounce as it currently   stands is viewed as a potential opportunity  to look further declined into the 16 843   again if you just look at the nifty you could  ask yourself well is this an inverse head and   shoulders are we going to start to break higher  from here and kickstart and you move to the upside   break here that would be a major breakout in the  nifty well if you've got an opinion on it that's   great time will tell whether that's correct or  not however i'd prefer to wait as i said just   the same with the other stocks if i were trading  this next is gold now gold was the primary thing   i was keeping my own last week as i tweeted out  on monday and going into this week is once again   my number one market that i'm going to be watching  keeping an eye on if i only trade gold and i catch   a good breakout in gold and i don't trade anything  else i'd be completely happy with that next week   although i do think those risk-off currencies  may also pay dividends next week based on what   we're seeing in the stock market we took out  the target to 1877 and we sold off that was   people selling profit taking and i tweeted out  afterwards on the 16th that i am back in gold at   1853.50 which is right here and i'm looking for  a run into the 1877.24 and a break why because   everybody who sold here they play stop losses  here and that causes the rally that causes the   breakout that provides the fuel for the momentum  and the second run at 1877 we did break through   and we started to hold towards the high of  last week that's a good sign going into this   week i'm leaving the 1877.24 on here because  it's a major breakout level and any pullback   towards this level is viewed as an opportunity to  look for bullish setups and buying opportunities   into the 1916 16.63 and interestingly the 1916.63  is a secondary breakout point so just as we broke over here with momentum this is the same breakout  but to a much higher degree you can see if i zoom   out further we have a low over here we have a  higher low and this is actually the breakout point   of this highlight over here so this breakout level  is the same as this but a couple of degrees higher   so when we get to 19 16 63 there's every chance  you see the market maybe test first and pull back   as profit taking comes in but certainly if we  test the second time i'd be looking for this to   explode through the 1916 63 and the next target  to the upside is the 19 57.47 next is silver now  

silver is kind of grinding to the upside you can  see we're lacking a little bit of momentum so i   do like silver to the upside but not as much as i  like gold any pullback in silver is still viewed   as an opportunity to look for bullish reversal so  look for the momentum to come in and any breakout   i'm going to be looking up towards the 24.55  and last but not least we have bitcoin bitcoin   has reversed lower as of last week and we are  now heading towards the 38 960. this is another   sign risk offs coming into the markets towards  the end of last week so any pullback in bitcoin   is currently viewed as an opportunity to look for  bearish breakouts down to the next key of support   downside to 38 960. so that is it for me for this  week guys i will be posting updates on twitter   throughout the week as new information comes  in and things start to change i'll be giving my   perspective on what i'm seeing in the markets it's  much easier for me to just fire off a tweet during   the week than it is to actually record and edit  and put out a youtube video so if you want to know   what my thoughts are on the markets as they change  as they evolve as setups appear be sure to follow   me on twitter because i will be posting everything  on there as always i hope you enjoyed this video   and if you did please let me know by liking  sharing and subscribing big thanks to everybody   who does that on a regular basis and a big thank  you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel   so far i want to wish you all a fantastic  weekend and i want to wish you all the best   in your trading next week the only thing left to  say is take care and don't forget to trade safely you

2022-02-20 16:42

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