Weekly Forex Forecast (14/03/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (14/03/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here  with this week's weekly forex forecast   we're going to have a quick look ahead to next  week because we have fomc coming up on wednesday   and this is likely to dictate the market moves  not just in forex but also in the stock markets   before moving on to the currency scorecards  last week seven out of nine closed successfully   in the direction highlighted and the only two  that didn't took out their targets first and   then reversed so a really good week last week  and as volatility is picking up it looks like   there's going to be lots of opportunities  in the markets for the foreseeable future   and once we've looked at the scorecards and the  best setups and markets heading into next week   in the forex markets we're going to move on and  finish with stocks gold silver and bitcoin the   economic calendar just for last week you can  see we did have euro interest rate decision on   thursday ecb came out more hawkish saying they  were going to start to run their balance sheet   off earlier than expected and yes some were  looking at this as a hawkish surprise however   when you take everything into account you're  looking at over 40 percent ppi in italy which is   usually a leading indicator of cpi inflation and  they still have interest rates at zero percent so   whilst last week was more bullish than expected or  more hawkish than expected from the ecb i wouldn't   say the situation there is particularly hawkish or  bullish in terms of the euro itself as a currency   fundamentally if we move on to the upcoming week  you can see the big one here is fomc on wednesday   so don't be surprised to see the markets kind of  just doing nothing into wednesday if that's the   case you know why it's because of the upcoming  interest rate decision you're most likely to get   next week opportunities from wednesday onwards the  markets will probably just correct into wednesday   and then start to move from fomc and it will  be the tail end of the week most probably where   you'll see most of your opportunities so might  be a little bit of patience required next week   with fmc on wednesday you don't want to chop your  account monday tuesday and wednesday into fomc and   then be playing catch up when the market starts  to move from wednesday onwards so sometimes the   market can move pre fomc but most of the time  statistically it doesn't so if you are going to   get involved in dollar pairs pre fomc i would say  don't go too crazy don't take too many positions   because more than likely in terms of probabilities  they're just going to move sideways or correct   into wednesday and you can see that the fed is  expected to raise rates on wednesday and this is   on top of their asset purchases also finishing  this month just finished so we're seeing the   dollar rising we were bullish on the dollar last  week and in previous weeks and from everything i'm   looking at on the chart unless the fed comes out  and say perhaps fails to raise rates which i think   is very unlikely given the inflation print out of  the u.s last week was almost eight percent it does   look to me as it currently stands like the dollar  is very much set to outperform in the near term   and when we go and look at the scorecards which  score one month forward so they're looking out   projecting out into the future one to four weeks  you're going to see that they are also painting   this picture as well for the us dollar so apart  from that there's not too much else we need to   discuss we do have an interest rate decision out  of the pound on thursday because this is so close   to the end of the week i would still look to trade  pound pairs before thursday because you might see   the pound pairs moving and then on thursday  reversing for example so because it's quite   near the end of the week i am prepared to trade  pound pairs during the week but again i just   won't go too crazy you know when you have these  large interest rate decisions coming up if you   want to take positions beforehand you can but it's  just common sense not to take too many positions   in those pairs before the event takes place you  don't need to take that much risk leading into   an event such as an interest rate decision okay so  let's have a look at the scorecards heading into   next week and for anybody new to the video what  we're looking at here is we're looking at the   one month forward score for these currencies it  basically takes macro data models and it projects   into the future one to four weeks the scores for  the currencies and in last week's video you can   see the australian dollar was scored the highest  and the aussie actually performed well to the   upside last week and we also had the us dollar new  zealand dollar slightly bullish to neutral because   one is bullish to neutral bullish strong bullish  and near-term overbought bearish neutral bearish   strong bearish bias and near-term oversold and you  can see that we had a strength of the dollar last   week and the new zealand and that makes up the  top three currencies heading into next week the   us dollar is number one that's my favorite long  heading into next week followed by the aussie   and new zealand and to the short side you can see  last week we had a near-term oversold reading in   the euro it does not mean go out and buy the euro  what that means is the euro is very weak but in   the short term you should probably be looking at  booking some profits on any shorts because more   than likely you're going to get a bounce in the  euro and that is exactly what we saw last week we   saw a bounce and it goes back to a strong bearish  bias or a score of -3 this week so the number one   currency pair i'm going to be looking at heading  to this week is euro dollar to the downside   followed by europe aussie to the downside also  going to look at your new zealand to the downside   and after the euro the pound is projected to be  the second weakest currency so i am going to be   looking in this week's video at pound dollar to  the downside pound ozzy to the downside pound new   zealand to the downside in terms of the frank and  the cad they're only kind of bullish and bearish   to neutral so unlike the japanese yen which is  not as weak as the pound of the euro it does   still score a bearish rating over the next one  to four weeks so in this week's video i'm also   going to be interested in in the new week coming  up the new trading week i am going to be looking   at once again us dollar yen to the upside aussie  yen to the upside and new zealand yen to the   upside and in fact these were markets although the  yen was bearish to neutral last week these were   some of the markets we actually looked at and they  did perform nicely and it looks like those moves   are set to continue into this week as we have no  change here in the scorings in fact they've become   more bullish and more bearish in those directions  okay so let's have a look at the individual   currencies starting with the dollar index and  we're on the daily chart here just to get a better   picture of the individual currencies what they're  doing you can see the dollar is very very strong   if anything it looks like it's starting a third  wave there's a one there's your failure to make   a low and there's the break of the previous high  and it looks to be training to the upside we could   see this going much further and now we took out  the target of the 99 last week it does look like   the 100 level is in play and in fact the next  target is the 100.52 so confirming everything   we looked at in the scorecards here this really is  my favorite long going into next week next is the   euro now last week the euro took out its target  the 1.08280 and if you had combined the scorecards  

with a score of -4 or near-term oversold for the  euro with the targets here you could pick the low   of the week in this if you were looking to book  some profits from shorts either way the euro is   still very weak and any pullback perhaps we start  to do this into fomc this is what i'd be looking   for wouldn't be surprised to pull back into fomc  and then the next move down from wednesday onwards   so i am looking for the declines in the euro it's  my favorite short next week next is the pound   last week the pound took out both targets to the  downside and there is nothing bullish about what   we're seeing here in the pound it's just broken a  previous major low and this by all indications is   the next bare leg to the downside after this  correction from december so i am looking for   the 1.2984 as the next target to the downside  and i do like pound shorts going into next week   next is the swiss franc now the swiss rank is  an interesting one and this is why we always mix   the technicals of what we're seeing in the futures  markets with the scorecards because the scorecards   are telling you that swiss franc overall is  bullish to neutral especially when taken into   account against other assets however when you look  at this technically you can see this is bearish   so technically speaking we could be coming down  to the 1.0577 so what this means is the bullish to   neutral score for the swiss franc i would not use  that to go along the swiss franc because you may   find that turns bearish to neutral or it just kind  of ranges between bullish to neutral and bearish   to neutral so this is telling me that if i am  looking to go long it really should be in the dxy   and potentially the new zealand and aussie pairs  which we're going to look at but long swiss franc   opportunities next week now for me are off the  table because of this i wouldn't short it either   but i wouldn't go along the swiss franc so this is  really denying what we looked at in the scorecards   to some extent although it's not completely  denying it because the scorecards are telling   you it's basically neutral there's no strong bias  one way or the other overall next is the japanese   yen now look at this this is where you have  this one two three four five and then you have   this sell-off this to me very often when you  have this kind of ending diagonal pattern   which breaks downwards this actually can precede  quite steep sell-off in price and look at the   daily candle we had here breaking the low  and the previous target of the 0.008603 if i take that off you can see this looks to be  the start not the end the start of a major break   to the downside in the end and i would expect  to see further weakening certainly heading into   next weekend this confirms what we're looking  at in the scorecards as the yen being one of the   best shorts heading into next week next is the  cad the cad is kind of bearish to neutral and   i would say the technicals here are just really  confirming that the cat is suffering because of a   stronger dollar but at the same time it's kind of  being supported by the crude oil price so this is   what makes the cad currently choppy not a great  currency pair i don't think it's the best one   heading into next week i would like to see this  breaking out of this kind of range or contraction   we've been in more or less since august before  i really got bullish or bearish on the cad once   again so bearish to neutral cad not really too  interested in this market next week aussie dollar   the australian dollar has rallied as we went  into a bit of a stagflationary mode we saw uh the   commodity prices really increasing in price and  this has helped push up the australian dollar and   the new zealand dollar the problem i have here is  that i believe we're going to see stagflation turn   into deflation and one of the first early signs  of that will be the australian dollar and the new   zealand dollar starting to weaken coming off these  highs and turning bearish once that happens if we   remain strong in the us dollar this is your  early indication from the forex market that we're   turning from stagflation into deflation and if  that happens you may find that a crash is on the   horizon the interesting thing about the current  scenario is that when you look at the macro data   and you look at say for example pmis the american  economy is currently growing but the markets   themselves are setting up for a big risk-off move  and again in terms of the forex markets that will   start to look to materialize once you see the  australian dollar new zealand dollar weakening   whilst the us dollar remains strong as it  currently stands the aussie dollar is still strong   for the time being i'm looking for the 0.7465  as we have the stagflationary conditions as it  

currently stands and does make my second favorite  long play next week and finally new zealand dollar   you can see we took out the target set last  week and looking at this we are quite close to   breaking what you can see over here this high and  this high this is a significant pivot point in the   new zealand dollar futures market and if we start  to break below the six seven 970 with momentum   you might see the new zealand pair struggling a  bit to the upside so keep an eye on this next week   especially with fomc it may be the case that the  dollar pairs are really the best pairs to trade   especially post fomc but relative to the other  currencies you can see new zealand is still strong   okay so looking at the markets themselves  starting with crude oil last week we did   take out both targets to the upside in crude oil  this market is extremely volatile we had a 12   down day at one point so if you are looking to  trade crude oil and you start to trade crude oil   itself especially with tight stops you're probably  going to get stopped out because of the volatility   there's nothing wrong with just looking for  derivatives of crude oil you can get etfs   you can get crude oil stocks that you might  want to play you don't always have to trade   the underlying asset because the name of  the game is to make risk adjusted returns   there's no point making huge returns for huge  risk you want to make consistent returns over   time and that means reducing the volatility in  your returns and you're not going to do that   by getting involved in extremely volatile markets  especially if you're using tight stops so i am   looking further advances in crude oil if you are  looking to trade this i would trade it with a   very wide stop i am looking for another run into  target 2 from last week at 128.17 next is EurUsd,   EurUsd is my favorite short going into this week  i am looking for it to come down to the 1.0781   what would be pretty good is  if we could start to correct   like this and we start to correct into fomc and  then on wednesday we get a big sell-off to the   downside that would be my opportunity to look for  further declines into the 1.0781 next is GbpUsd,   GbpUsd took out both targets to the downside last  week heading into this week i'm looking for the   declines because we have an interest rate decision  on wednesday and thursday out of the uk and the us   what would be good is to get an opportunity in  this market before wednesday so if the market   pulls back like this sort of maybe on monday i'll  be looking for short opportunities into the 1.2979   from say monday tuesday wednesday onwards  and if i could be out of a GbpUsd short   leading into fomc that would be great so i do  like pound dollar for further declines next   week but just bear in mind we have two interest  rate decisions on this pair so could get a little   bit choppy next is UsdJpy now we took out both  targets in this market this was a really nice move   last week in this pair coming to this week  i am looking further advances in this market   look at the momentum we have here and  when you take into account the fact that   GbpUsd has two interest rate decisions  next week i actually think us dollar yen   is more of a preferable market than pound dollar  because it doesn't have two interest rate systems   it just has fomc so any pullback in this market  i'm absolutely going to be keeping my eye on   any bullish breakouts to the upside and maybe  again we pull back and then on wednesday fomc   we rally that would be the opportunity to start to  look for long positions into the 118.55 so EurUsd   and UsdJpy are my two favorite next week and if  they were the only two markets i traded next week   and we got really nice moves in both of them i'd  be a very happy man next week next is your aussie   euro aussie bounce from the target previously set  and i am looking for the declines in euro aussie   we've already started to break down somewhat so  any pullback in this market will be viewed as an   opportunity to look for bearish reversals down  towards the next kiev supports the downside at   1.4431 and once it takes this out if we can get  through here i'm going to be looking down towards  

the one point four four three ten pound aussie we  do have an interest rate decision out of the pound   towards the end of next week so what i would  like to see in this market is any pullback we   came quite close to the target any pullback up in  this area would be viewed as another opportunity   to look for shorts this was a good short last week  any pullback a good opportunity to look for shorts   once again down to the 1.7747 and ideally i'd like  to see this pull back and sell off again before   thursday or before wednesday so i'd like to be in  and out of any of these pound pairs between monday   and wednesday evening let's say before fomc next  is aussie yen last week this was highlighted as   a market to keep your arm and look for trades  to the upside we did take out the target set   heading into this week i am bullish once  again and any pullback in this market will   be viewed as another opportunity to look for  bullish setups into the 86.21 euro new zealand   we did bounce from the previous target at the  1.5667 i'm just simply viewing this as a bear   market bounce and any continued pullback is  another opportunity to look for short positions   in this market down to the one point five six six  seven once again and then on to the one point five   four seven forty next is pal new zealand again  we came and took out the target in pound new   zealand at the 1.9104 heading into this week i am  still bearish on this market and it looks like now  

we've had the breakout of this correction here  we're setting up for a bear flag so any pullback   i am going to be looking for short opportunities  down to the 1.8859 and as i say preferably i'd   like to get these opportunities be in and  out between monday and wednesday before fomc   because this market is likely to get pretty choppy  or volatile from wednesday onwards because you're   going to have two interest rate decisions in three  days and finally new zealand yen this was a market   highlighted to the upside last week as one of the  better opportunities we took out both targets and   coming into this week any pullback once again is  simply viewed as another opportunity to look for   bullish setups bullish breakouts into the 80.43 so  finishing up with stocks gold silver and bitcoin   and looking at the stock market here we came  and took out the target set last week four one   six nine point two two in spx now i said earlier  on in the video that the markets were pricing in   or setting up for a big risk-off move and there  are a number of indications of this the first is   of course that i've mentioned in previous videos  this low over here being broken was in the near   term a trend change in the spx and also we've seen  these in other stock markets and we're having this   trend change alongside what looks to be coming up  and out performance of the us dollar which is what   you see in risk-off scenarios and another thing we  can look at here as well which adds to the picture   is the spread between the 10-year and the two-year  us treasury yield if we have a look here at the 10   year minus two year you can see that very often  when we go through this in the free gmt course   when we have this spread crossing below zero in  other words you're seeing the two-year inverting   relative to the 10-year you're seeing the yield  on the two-year outperforming or higher than the   yield on the 10-year and this usually precedes  recessions and big risk-off moves you can see   this happened back in 2019 and of course we had  the recession of 2020. we are now making our way   back towards the zero level here we're making our  way towards an inversion in the 10-year and the   two-year spread and not only is the 10-year  minus the two-year quite close to inverting   which is causing downward pressure on  stocks if we look at the most recent   scorecard updated on friday you can see the  10-year on a one-month forward-looking basis   is projected to be the yield which underperforms  the most and you can see the two year is actually   quite bullish projected into the next one to four  weeks and the three month which also when you get   a three month inversion against the ten year that  is also a sign of a recession coming up the three   month is the strongest scoring currency over the  next one four weeks so i would expect to also see   not just the tens twos heading towards inversion  but also the ten and the three month heading   towards inversion as well if that's the case and  these invert you almost certainly have a major   risk off move coming up and a recession in the  us and also globally because if the u.s goes into  

recession everyone's going into a recession  so going into this week i'm looking for the   declines in spx any pullback will be viewed as an  opportunity to look for decline into the 4063.35   the other thing to remember is as  the yield curve starts to flatten   this is telling you that financial conditions  are tightening in the us because banks borrow   money at the short end of the curve and they lend  money at the long end of the curve and so this is   actually reflective of a tightening of financial  conditions which of course is bearish for stocks   next is the nasdaq now last week i was bearish on  the nasdaq we did pull back somewhat and sell off   any continued pullback in this market is simply  viewed as another opportunity to look further   declines into the 1306.27 and if we break through  here we're going to be looking down towards 12   247.20 next is the dow jones the dow jones was the  only stock market to show any kind of technical   strength last week and it has ultimately rolled  over with the rest of the stocks any pullback in   this market therefore is going to be viewed as an  opportunity to look further declines into the 31   646.14 next is the russell now the russell i have  noted in previous videos although i am bearish  

on the russell it is kind of in no man's land  it's right at that point where it could break   higher and start a new trend to the upside or  if it breaks this low over here we could see   possibly even a crash in the russell this is  really a significant area where the russell's at   now we've just discussed and you can see from  what we've just discussed my own personal   view which is that the conditions are there for a  sell-off in stocks for further declines in stocks   the fundamental conditions as it currently stands  are not there for a reversal to the upside so   although there's no guarantees in markets you may  see a relief rally if something comes out between   ukraine and russia for a ceasefire or something  like this but in terms of probabilities and the   fundamentals the risk is clearly weighted to the  downside in stocks so any pullback in this market   next week is viewed as another opportunity  to look further declines into the 1892.45   and if we break this low over here then it'll be  very interesting to see what happens because as   i said you could actually see a crash down below  this level and that would actually filter through   to the potential outperformance that we're seeing  in the scorecards over the next one to four weeks   because if you get a crash in stocks the us dollar  is going to rally and finally we have the nifty   the nifty sold off and took out the target set in  last week's video and bounced from the 15 894.20   because we bounced all the way back up more or  less to the beginning of the week this target   remains in place and any continued pullback  is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for   bearish reversals back down to the 15 894.20 and  finishing up with gold silver and bitcoin starting  

with XauUsd we took out both targets to the upside  XauUsd has been extremely volatile and i have been   warning of a major XauUsd breakout since the  beginning of this year in the weekly forex   forecast videos i highlighted the 1877.24 this  black level here that was the major breakout point   and as it currently stands we have this momentum  and if we take the targets away from last week   you can see we're setting up what looks to be  a ball flag here so any continued pullback in   gold is simply viewed as another opportunity  to look for a bullish breakout into the 2074.27   and for those who have been following the weekly  forecast for a number of years or for a long time   you will know towards the end of last year or  last year i was talking about 2075 as a long-term   target for gold and it does look to me like we are  going to reach that now over the next couple of   weeks and when we talk about the markets pricing  in a big risk off move both the dollar and gold   outperforming at the same time is another sign on  top of the yield curve on top of the technicals   in stocks etc that the markets are pricing a big  risk off move because what you're seeing is you're   seeing a flight to safety not just in the yield  curve but also in the precious metals like gold   next to XagUsd last week i was bullish on  XagUsd we took out both targets to the upside   i'm looking for further advances in this market so  any pullback in XagUsd will be viewed as another   opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the  27.45 and last but not least we have bitcoin now   bitcoin is technically structured to the upside  and last week i did say that i was looking for   potential run up towards the 45 649. we did get  a spike higher on the breakout but the problem i  

have with bitcoin currently is that in a risk-off  environment which we currently have bitcoin tends   to underperform we've seen this from the history  of bitcoin it tends to be more of a speculative   asset it moves up and down essentially with stocks  and i wouldn't be surprised to see politicians who   want to introduce central bank digital currencies  which is a terrible idea in my opinion but i won't   be surprised to see them using the ukraine russia  situation in an attempt to crack down on cryptos   and so if you are long and you see some  regulation coming out against crypto currencies   under for example the pretense that they want  to prevent russian money from flowing out and   avoiding sanctions you know into cryptocurrencies  whatever the reason is i wouldn't be surprised   because it's in direct competition to the central  bank digital currency that they start to talk   about more regulation in the coming months so  just something to be aware of if you are bullish   i personally wouldn't trade bitcoin because of  this right now but if you do want to trade bitcoin   i would be looking technically for any break  higher and that would be the opportunity to look   for further advances into the 45 694 so that is  it for me for this week guys as always i hope you   enjoyed this video if you did please let me know  by liking sharing and subscribing big thank to   everybody who does that on a regular basis and a  big thanks to everybody who has subscribed to the   channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic  weekend and i want to wish you all the best   in your trading next week the only thing left to  say is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-03-15 04:00

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