Weekly Forex Forecast (14/02/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (14/02/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having   a fantastic weekend we're going to kick off with a  quick review of key events heading into next week   there really isn't too much in the economic  calendar we have a pretty clear run at the markets   over the next two weeks in terms of economic  data however a key event we have to factor into   our trading plan for next week is the ukraine  russia situation that's because we saw a big   risk off move in the markets at the end of friday  last week around 6 30 when news broke that russia   according to us analysts is set to invade ukraine  on wednesday so we have to take this into account   and in today's video we're going to go through  setups which are going to allow us to play this   event either way it plays out and so in one sense  we have to treat this almost like an interest rate   decision where we have multiple setups ready to  go and then when we get the outcome of the event   you can trade those setups in that direction we're  then going to look at the scorecards heading into   this week and i also want to just have a quick  preview of last week last week was a very tough   week and i want to just have a quick look at what  played out last week and also of course the scores   heading into this week and how we can use those to  navigate the russia ukraine situation once we've   done that we'll look at the individual currencies  as we always do just to compare them to the   scorecards before moving on to the currency pairs  themselves looking at the best setups heading into   next week before finishing with stocks gold silver  and bitcoin so with that said let's get into   today's video so if we start just as we always do  by having a quick look at the economic calendar   we do not have coming up this week really  anything we need to plan around we do have   cpi data out of the uk which can cause volatility  in the markets but like we saw last week the us   cpi we also have the same coming out of canada  and we have some unemployment data coming out   of australia so all these things can cause  volatility but these are not situations which   tend to reverse markets like an interest rate  decision that we would need to pay attention to   and if we shoot to the following week you can  see again we have a pretty clear run we have   a us bank holiday on monday but apart from  that the only thing we really need to pay   attention to in the following week is the  interest rate decision out of new zealand   when you have this and we do have some in uh gdp  data out of the us as well but primarily when you   have these interest rate decisions you can see the  markets kind of correcting into those this is two   weeks out so we can look at the new zealand pairs  this week but just bear in mind that the closer   you get to this the more chance you have of those  markets being corrective and turning neutral into   those events so there really is nothing more to  look at in the economic calendar over the next two   weeks and as i say the key event we really need to  pay attention to was this warning from us analysts   that russia is set to invade ukraine on wednesday  of this week and we're going to have a look in   the markets at the risk-off move that caused and  what it means for the markets heading into next   week okay so looking at the scorecards heading  into next week you can see that there are some   significant changes which took place last week and  in last week's video the euro and the pound were   the two strongest pairs that we were looking at  and the aussie and the new zealand with the two   weakest and my two favorite pairs last week to  the upside were euro new zealand euro aussie and   i also noted that although i didn't prefer them  as much as the euro pairs i was also looking at   pound new zealand and pound aussie if you go and  have a look at euro new zealand this week which is   something we are going to do when we look at the  charts you will see that we had a down week in   euro new zealand this was a market i traded last  week and for me personally it was a losing week   because i was focused on trading euro new zealand  to the upside i didn't take any significant losses   because that's what risk management is for  but it was the first week this year that i   finished in the red so if you made money last  week hats off to you amazing job it was a very   very tough week to trade so one of the things  i asked myself is okay why was that the case   and was there something could have done to avoid  that situation last week and the answer is that   one of the problems we faced last week first and  foremost was the fact that you can see the dollar   and the euro are both displaying strength when you  have the euro and the dollar in the same category   it tells you the markets are lacking direction  they're very very choppy they're correcting   because when you have strong risk off moves you  will see the dollar very strong and you'll see   the euro very weak and you'll often see the swiss  franc and the end strong with it and you'll see   the commodity currencies lagging down with the  euro that shows clear market direction to the   upside for the dollar and the risk off pairs and  vice versa when you have strong risk on moves   you will see the dollar and the safe haven assets  like the frank like the end down at the bottom of   the scorecard and you will see the euro the pound  and especially the commodity currencies at the top   so the first issue we had going into last week  was the fact that the markets are lacking clear   direction when that happens opportunities tend  to dry up that has not changed this week we've   seen a weakening of the us dollar slightly but  we still see the dollar scoring a plus one and   the euro scoring a plus two so the first takeaway  from last week is going into this week we do not   want to take lots and lots of risk i am going  to limit my trading i'm only going to be taking   a small amount of trades because in my opinion  the market conditions are not good enough to be   taking large amounts of trade or large amounts of  risk so that's my first and primary view heading   into this week in terms of the forex markets  the second issue we had last week as well was   the new zealand had been scoring a minus four for  a number of weeks and this was suggesting a bottom   in the new zealand was coming and by definition  if you get commodity currencies bouncing you   see the dollar selling off as well so again you  could think of this as being overbought plus four   oversold minus four and then a strong bearish  bias bearish buys neutral neutral neutral strong   bullish bias or sorry just bullish bias here  and then strong bullish bias is three and then   overbought is four so what we saw last week was we  saw new zealand coming off the lows and actually   in hindsight that was a sign that we were seeing  some strength in coming into the new zealand and   so we were in a position where the strongest  and the weakest currency was euro new zealand   but the new zealand was sort of strengthening  somewhat so that was the second takeaway from   last week as to why i believe euro new zealand  failed to perform if we look at the scorecards for   this week you can see once again the new zealand  after coming off the lows here of minus four   ie oversold you think of it as that i don't really  like oversold and overbought because it brings in   a kind of contrarian counter trend mindset however  the easiest way to think of this is a place where   you'd expect to see a bounce you could call it  oversold and the momentum from minus four to   minus three in the new zealand continued last week  and we saw a continued strengthening from bearish   or strong bearish bias to neutral because we now  sit at minus one and that strengthening of the   new zealand from a minus three to a minus one is  what caused the reversal to the downside in euro   new zealand so where does that leave us going into  this week well the first thing to note is we have   more changes in the currencies why because the  market is in a potential reversal condition   so the market is only ever in three conditions  it's either trending correcting or reversing   and as we discussed in last week's video  the dollar is currently correcting and it   could possibly be reversing and this is why  we're seeing such changes in the currencies   and why opportunities are somewhat drying up  so we did see the dollar weakened somewhat and   the fact that the dollar dropped from two to  one and the euro continued to score plus three   is suggestive of a top in the dollar because if  the dollar was going to continue to rally strongly   we would be seeing the euro weakening and we  would be seeing the us dollar strength in we are   not currently seeing that in the scorecards and  at the same time the second thing to add weight   to a potential us dollar top is the fact that  we're seeing money coming out of the safe haven   assets of the end of the franc and we're seeing  money coming back into the commodity currencies   the risk on currencies like the australian  dollar like the new zealand dollar so if we   take the highest score in currencies here you can  see euro japanese yen is a market that i favor the   most going into this week that is a risk on move  euro swiss franc to the upside is a risk on move   that's my second favorite pair this week and we  also have pound yen to the upside which is a risk   on currency pair if you're looking for the market  to move to the upside and we also have pound swiss   franc to the upside which again is a risk on move  so those are my four favorite pairs going into   next week and i'll explain how we can tie this in  with the situation in ukraine and interestingly   the scorecards are also throwing up potentially  euro new zealand to the upside still pound new   zealand to the upside they are risk off moves and  what this allows us to do it allows us to create   setups for both risk on and risk off heading  into next week and once more information comes   out you'll be able to pivot to either the risk  on pairs or the risk-off pairs depending on the   outcome of the news as the situation in ukraine  develops so to summarize this in three points the   risk on currencies are strengthening vis-a-vis the  risk-off currencies and euro yen euro franc pound   gen and pound franc are my four top currencies  going into this week which will risk on moves   the second thing is that the euro and the  dollar are both still scoring in the top half   of the scorecard meaning that the market's  corrective the dollar is lacking direction   and that we should be taking less risk and really  only taking the best trades as we see them or even   if you wish not trading at all that's entirely  up to you i personally always like to take   some risk but when the euro and the dollar are  scoring in the same section either strong or weak   i keep that risk to a minimum and  finally we also have risk off setups   in the form of the euro and the pound against  the new zealand dollar which we can pivot to if   we start to see negative news coming out of the  ukraine situation next week okay so let's have   a look at the individual currencies first very  quickly just get an idea of what they're doing   match them up to the scorecards and then we're  going to move on to the best pairs that i see   heading into next week and i'm going to give you  my base case scenario of what i think is going   to happen with the ukraine russia situation and  what my primary plan is in order to trade that   to start with i've zoomed down to the four hour  chart here for the dxy just to show you last   week how difficult trading conditions were you  can see we moved absolutely nowhere in the dxy   and when the dxy doesn't move very often it's  very hard to find trading opportunities and then   we rallied higher we whipsawed lower off the cpi  data and then we continue to rally and we finish   the week in this area that kind of price action is  extremely difficult and this is why heading into   next week once again if you are taking risk if  you are assuming risk you want to keep your wrists   small yes this was primarily a function of the cpi  data that came out last week however you see this   kind of choppy price action as i said whenever  you see the euro and the dollar bow strong in   the scorecards or when you see the euro and the  dollar both weak and the dollar itself technically   is still in an uptrend this is a high and  this is as it currently stands a high low   but as you can see it's not really going anywhere  in a hurry so what we're seeing here technically   justifies the score of plus one in the dollar it's  kind of bullish to neutral moving on to the euro   and i've zoomed out back to the daily charts just  so we can get a bigger picture of what's going on   here i did mention last week that we'd started  to reverse the upside or we're in this market   condition where we could be potentially reversing  and that would come with the top in the dollar and   it looks like we're forming an inverse head and  shoulders and i did note in last week's video that   we may actually just pull back from these highs in  the euro and i even suggested that could cause a   few problems in the euro aussie in the euro new  zealand pairs that we were looking at last week   and so in order to offset any problems in those  pairs you could add in some of the n pairs like   euro yen like pound yen to the upside like us  dollar yen to the upside which we discussed   last week and these were kind of hedges as to any  problems in the euro aussie euro new zealand pairs   from last week and in fact anybody who added those  yen pairs into their plan last week to the upside   at least until we had that news on friday at 6 30  would have really hedged any of those positions in   your aussie euro new zealand now even though  went through all the data and we identified   any potential problem in the euro aussie in the  euro new zealand pairs could be offset by those   yen pairs to the upside and a couple of those at  least one of them i know euro yen i think went   straight to the target despite that i actually  personally missed my trade in euro yen which   i was trying to get to offset or to hedge those  your aussie pairs so i ended up only in the euro   new zealand your aussie pairs and as a result of  that i ended up in the red as i said earlier last   week so coming into this week you can see we have  a score of plus three in the euro and what that's   suggesting is it is suggesting that this is going  to continue to the upside but technically speaking   you can see the technicals haven't caught up  with that and really this is back almost in   the middle of this range and potentially as i  said forming a right shoulder and whether the   euro continues higher or it ends up coming down  and starting the next bear leg to the downside   could very well depend on the developments of  the ukraine situation going into next week so i   am still bullish on the euro going into next week  as it currently stands next is the pound now the   pound is also slightly choppy as you can see here  over the last one two three four five six seven   eight days hasn't really gone anywhere however we  are still stretched to the upside and there is no   real change here in the technicals in the pound so  i am bullish on the pound next is the swiss franc   now the swiss franc is structured to the downside  and this is being picked up by the scorecards this   is showing you actually this is quite a bearish  currency not just individually here but relative   to all the other currencies as well so i do  favor swiss franc shorts heading into next week   bear in mind this will be a risk on move if we  get swiss franc declined to the downside and again   when we look at the pairs i'll go through how i  think this is likely to play out next week we also   have the japanese yen structure to the downside it  isn't a downtrend in fact last week it made a new   low so i am bearish on the yen however any further  declines in the end would be risk on and you would   really need to see a resolution of the situation  in ukraine for further declines in the swiss franc   in japanese yen next is the canadian dollar the  canadian dollar really hasn't gone anywhere it is   bullish to neutral in the scoring system compared  to the other currencies and relatively speaking   it's actually slightly bearish and i haven't been  interested in trading the canadian pairs for the   last couple of weeks and going into next week  i still don't think this is a fantastic pair to   be involved with next is the aussie the aussie is  currently structured to the upside although as you   can see again just like the euro just like the us  dollar it's pretty much back in the middle of this   range all the way back from december so there's no  real significant strength it's kind of neutral and   we're seeing this in the scorecards and finally  the new zealand dollar the new zealand dollar   is actually still structured to the downside and  we are forming what looks to be a bear flag here   for further declines now further declines to the  downside in the new zealand dollar would probably   mean swiss franc japanese yen to the upside  because a sell-off in new zealand dollar is   a risk-off move and so this is what allows us to  go into next week to play those risk-on risk-off   setups both ways around this ukraine situation  okay so let's move on to the markets themselves   and let me give you my base case for what i think  is going to happen with the ukraine situation   obviously i do not have a crystal ball i  do not know for sure what's going to happen   but my base case is as follows you can see we're  looking at the aussie yen chart here this is the   most risk on risk off chart because the yen is the  most risk-off currency and the australian dollar   is the most risk-on currency so this is the most  risk-on risk-off pair and you can see when we got   the news on friday we had a big sell-off to the  downside in aussie yen although the trend is still   to the upside so we still have the trend risk on  but we have a big sell-off or a risk-off move to   the downside within an overall structured trend to  the upside in aussie yen now what i think is going   to happen and what is my personal base case for  this is the following i think we're going to see   a similar scenario here to what we saw previously  a couple of times in 2017 if i take you back first   of all to the 29th of our 28th of august in this  case it was the 29th in north korea but the 28th   of august here 2017 when we had this big sell-off  very similar to what we saw on friday in aussie   yen this was a risk off sell-off and this was when  north korea fired missiles 12 missiles over japan   and we saw a big risk off sell-off then we saw  the markets rally as fears faded over the initial   risk-off move in the markets and concerns of any  escalation of the events dissipated if we continue   further back we also have another example here and  this was on the 7th of april the morning that the   u.s bombed syria if you remember the u.s president  at the time donald trump bombed syrian airstrips   and we had this initial sell-off to the downside  in aussie yen before rallying when concerns   over the situation dissipated now yes in this  scenario we continue to the downside but that's   because the overall market was in a downtrend  but you can see immediately after the sell-off   we began to pull back and retrace the risk-off  move that happened on the initial spike down   so i do think the most likely situation is that  we see a similar thing play out in the markets   the scorecards are signaling a shift to the risk  on currency pairs and therefore euro yen to the   upside euro franc to the upside pound gen to the  upside pound frank to the upside remain especially   these two euro yoni eurofrank they remain my  primary pairs that i'm looking to trade next week   and i'm looking for those pairs to rally or  to perform on the basis of fears dissipating   over the news yesterday and that would of course  be because news comes out which points to an   improvement in the situation in ukraine today  there is a meeting supposed to take place between   us president joe biden and vladimir putin and  we may see some good news come out of this maybe   even some agreement which alleviates market fears  and we see a repeat of the bounce we saw in 2017   with the syria airstrikes and also with the north  korean missiles over japan which we looked at   just a minute ago so that is my base case and if  news does come out which points to an improvement   in the situation i do think we're going to see the  risk on currencies like euro yen light euro frank   poundian and pound frank performing and we may  even see aussie yen and aussie frank performing as   well although i favor the euro pairs here but as  you can see i've highlighted in blue the risk off   pairs and they will be the pairs to pivot to to  look at and assess for potential trading setups if   we get the opposite taking place and in fact  we don't see an improvement in relations in the   situation but we see a deterioration then it  will be the blue markets that will outperform   not the gold markets but as i said my base  case is for an improvement of the situation   and that's why i favor these gold markets over and  above the blue markets next week so starting with   crude oil we saw a rally to the upside on the news  last friday why did we see the spike to the upside   this was on concerns or supply concerns of crude  oil should russia get into a war with ukraine   however i have been saying over the last few weeks  that we could very well be seeing a top coming in   the near term in crude oil and if my base case  scenario is correct and that we do actually get   an improvement in the situation best case scenario  we get some kind of agreement between the us and   russia and russia starts to pull troops away from  the border that could actually be the catalyst   for the top in crude oil so just as we saw a  spike to the upside on supply concerns with   the risk-off move we would see the opposite most  likely if we get an improvement in the ukraine   situation so personally speaking i don't want to  trade crude oil next week because this market is   highly exposed to the events in ukraine but it is  interesting the way that would fit together with   the scorecards suggesting a near-term top in crude  oil and the possible improvement of the situation   in ukraine the first pair i'm going to be looking  at trading next week is euro yen we had this big   sell-off to the downside and this looks rather  scary however we have just looked at this exact   same thing which took place a number of times in  the past and my base case scenario is that we see   an improvement in the situation and in that case  i would be looking for the market to pull back   really in this kind of situation you want  additional confirmation would like to see it break   into the upside first and then any pullback going  to be looking at initiating longs into the 133.13   if you are looking at trading any of these pairs  next week it's probably going to be a very good   policy to take wider stops because as volatility  increases you should take wider stops and this   event is really like any other event like an  interest rate decision you don't trade them   with tight stops you take wider stops if you  are trading these events or if you're trading   around these events next is eurofrank eurofrank  also saw this risk-off sell-off to the downside   if we get fears dissipating what i'm going to be  looking for again i would really like to see a   reversal first like this and then any pullback  would be viewed as an opportunity to look for   longs into the 1.0609 and what i'm going to  do here is i'm going to look at the risk on   currency pairs first and then we will look at  all the risk of currency pairs the next market   here we're going to look at though is euro dollar  again i don't really have a strong bias on euro   dollar one way or the other because as i said  before it does look like we could be forming   an inverse head and shoulders if we're  coming down for the right shoulder we may   just continue to correct here the euro and  the dollar are both fairly strong and when   two currencies are both strong or two currencies  are both weak you tend to just get a correction   that is exactly what we saw last week in  euro dollar the scorecards were telling us   both currencies were strong therefore there's  a high probability for choppy moves and we had   exactly that well the scorecards are telling us  the same this week and so i would not be surprised   to see more choppiness in euro dollar so i've put  this in here because we cover this every week but   i'm unlikely to personally trade eurodollar  next week next is pound yen again this is a   risk on move so this is on the basis that we see  an improvement in the situation in ukraine i would   be looking for the market to correct somewhat and  then a reversal would be perfect any pullback i   will be looking into the 15820 in pound yen next  is pound frank this is the next risk on move   again we saw the pull back here any improvement  in the ukraine situation i will be looking at the   market to start to turn and any breakout higher i  will be looking further advances into the 1.2630   i do prefer as i've said multiple times euro  yen eurofranc to poundgen and pound frank   and the final two pairs here are aussie  yen and aussie frank we've already looked   at aussie yen we saw this big sell-off and we  saw this previously with these kind of moves   any reversal in this market and again probably  a good idea to look for the confirmation of the   reversal first rather than just buying the dip  or if you want to buy the dip because you believe   the situation will improve then you want to be  doing so with a wider stop but any pullback and   a break higher will be viewed as an opportunity to  further advances into the 84.29 and because this   is the most risk on risk off currency if we see an  improvement in the ukraine situation you could see   the aussie yen actually being the best performer  next week and finally here we have aussie frank   this is my sixth favorite risk on currency  pair heading into next week and this is the   final currency pair that i'll be monitoring around  my base case of an improvement in the situation   any reversal in this market is going to be  viewed as an opportunity to look for longs   into the 0.6695 now of course if there is no  hard improvement in the situation and the meeting  

between biden and putin kind of just peters out  goes nowhere and we're kind of left in limbo going   into next week then of course you're going to be  taking a risk trading any risk on pairs because if   something does happen you're going to see all  of these spike to the downside just as we did   on friday last week so this is really in  the situation that we get some good news   and ideally some agreement between biden and putin  over the weekend okay so let's look at the other   end of this coin and let's start with euro new  zealand this is the first risk off currency pair   if we see fears continuing to mount over the  situation this is likely to tank the new zealand   dollar the aussie dollar as we've seen and it will  relatively start to add upward pressure into euro   new zealand so any break higher in that situation  in the risk off event and certainly if there were   to be an invasion you would see euro new zealand  spike to the upside because that's what tends to   happen in a crisis you can see if we go back here  just to march of 2020 or february of 2020 here   you can see this was the big risk-off move  that took place in euro new zealand there was   a spike to the upside see this that is what you  would likely see in a severe risk off situation   in europe new zealand so what i'd be looking for  if things start to deteriorate in ukraine is any   further pullback in this market would be viewed as  an opportunity to look for further advances into   the 1.7403 next is pound new zealand again another  risk of currency that you would likely see spike   to the upside if there were continued fears over  the ukraine situation or it was to deteriorate   any pull back then in this market would be viewed  as an opportunity to look for further advances   into the 2.0611 the third risk off currency pair  here which is essentially a backup currency is new   zealand dollar new zealand dollar has been forming  this big bear flag and what you would likely see   on continued fears are further declines as the  dollar strengthens as a safe haven asset and any   break lower would be viewed as an opportunity to  start to look for further declines into the 0.6491   and again if you were to trade this kind of market  even in this area you want your stop loss right   out the way and you want to be taking a small  amount of risk you'd only be taking huge leverage   with very tight stops in these scenarios and  finally aussie dollar this is the final risk of   currency pair any deterioration in the ukraine  situation would likely see further declines in   aussie dollar i'm going to be looking down towards  the 0.6933 so that is my forex plan heading into  

next week i am prepared to play this both ways  if given the opportunity however my base case   is for an improvement in the situation and we see  a rally in the risk on currency pairs highlighted   here just as we saw the markets reverse higher  after the risk of moves we've seen in the past   such as the syrian airstrikes or the north korean  missiles over japan and finishing up with stocks   gold silver and bitcoin starts off with the stock  market last week we saw a self to the downside   and a reversal to the downside in a number of the  stock markets that was primarily based off of the   news we've got at the end of the week you can see  winded up right at the end of the week coming down   breaking lower and going into this week really we  just have to look at stocks in the same kind of   risk on risk-off mentality if we get a continuing  deterioration in the ukraine situation this is   going to apply downward pressure to stocks in that  scenario i would be looking for the spx down to   4305.29 if we look at the nasdaq you can see it's  basically the same setup any further deterioration   i'm looking for the nasdaq into the 13784.98  and we also have the dow jones to the downside   and this is structured for a risk off move into  the 34.023.1 so the s p 500 the nasdaq and the   dow jones are all set for risk off moves and of  course if we were to get some kind of an agreement   and the fears over the ukraine situation were to  dissipate you would likely see stocks reversing to   the upside in the dow jones above 35 818 in the  nasdaq and the spx at the same time reversing   higher as you see relief coming into the markets  now the interesting thing about stocks heading   into next week is that the russell which tends  to be a leading indicator of the other indices   is actually still structured to the upside  after this inverse head and shoulders breakout   and we stopped just shy of the target of the  2107.8 last week so going into next week i would   favor the russell as a risk on market because it's  structured to the upside and i'd be viewing this   exactly as we just looked at the forex markets  if there is an improvement in the situation   in ukraine you can look for further advances  in the russell as it's already structured to   the upside after the inverse head and shoulders  reversal and i would be looking for a break above   the two one zero seven and into the two one seven  nine eighteen so even in the stock market here if   you're looking at the indices you have the s p the  nasdaq and the dow jones structure to the downside   these are risk off setups but you also  have a risk on set up here in the russell   as it is structured in the opposite direction so  perhaps you could even think of this as the spx   being in blue same as the nasdaq and also the  dow jones as the risk off setups and the russell   in the risk-on scenario and finally here we have  the nifty the nifty really hasn't gone anywhere   it is still structured to the upside but  you can see it's starting to actually   form a triangle type pattern you see this  when you get a high and then a lower high   and a low followed by a high low and you start  to coil so i don't think nifty is a fantastic   market heading into next week if this is  just going to continue to crack like this   i'd much rather wait for this to break out  perhaps on good news over the ukraine situation   following us stocks up if that were to happen and  then you can look into the 18 to 830. so with the   ukraine situation weighing on the markets heading  into next week the best way to approach this   if you want to trade and of course you don't have  to trade but if you want to trade is to have those   setups in both scenarios and to be able to pivot  to the markets which make the most sense as the   situation starts to unfold finishing with gold  silver and bitcoin gold is a very interesting one   going into next week it is now structured to the  upside and what's interesting is last week on the   friday we had a spike to the upside on the ukraine  russia concerns and this was a risk-off move   however what's interesting about this is if we  continue to get a risk off scenario then we can   see gold rally but at the same time if we start to  see risk on moves and the dollar starts to weaken   even further because we've seen it already  start to weaken in the scorecards this could   also lift gold to the upside so gold actually  becomes quite an interesting market next week   and now it's structured to the upside i do think a  position in gold with a wide stop next week on any   pullback could actually be quite a good idea and i  think it's something i'm going to be paying close   attention to heading into next week the reason  for this as well is because any pullback in gold   before if there is going to be a rally higher into  the 1877.24 would probably be the last chance to  

enter before a major breakout to the upside why  because if we scroll out here and we talked about   this in previous videos how gold looks like  it's about to explode one way or the other   and i highlighted in gold we have this inverse  head and shoulders so we have a one up followed by   a head and shoulders one down and in this  scenario any break above the 1877.24 negates the   head and shoulders and it's a continuation of the  original break of the inverse head and shoulders   and everybody who's sold in this area and  anybody still holding likely will have stop   losses in this area and if gold breaks the  1877.24 that is when we could finally see   a big rally to the upside in gold so my thinking  for next week is if that is going to be the case   whether or not gold continues to rally or  it starts to sell off and has a down week   maybe because we get some risk on moves the risk  reward to the upside in gold for any pullback with   an entry with a with a wider stop in this market  seems to be very very good and i personally will   try to take a position in gold on any pullback  to see if we can get that break out to the upside   because as i said the risk reward on such a trade  would be very good so any pullback in this market   would be viewed as an opportunity to go long  especially now we've reversed to the upside   into the 1877 but just bear in mind this is a  point at which i would be looking for a major   breakout to the upside and i wouldn't want to book  my profits short term and in fact purely based on   what we've just discussed the fact that gold can  benefit from further risk off over the ukraine   russia situation and also potentially a risk on  move where we see the u.s dollar weaken because   it's priced in dollars i could even put gold in  gold next week because i think this is one of the   better markets that i'll be keeping an eye on but  just be aware like all of the markets this can be   affected next week by the ongoing situation  in ukraine because it already was affected   at the end of last week this spike higher next  is silver now silver is structured to the upside   after reversing down in this area i  personally prefer gold heading into next week   and i probably won't trade silver purely because  we have yet to see the us dollar turn bearish the   reason i was talking about potential longs in  gold a because the risk reward of a breakout   higher would be good but b we're seeing momentum  to the downside in the dxy we are seeing it weaken   it still registers as plus one but that's down  from i believe three to two to plus one so we're   seeing the momentum to the downside so any long  positions in gold is kind of jumping the gun a   little bit but you can do that from time to time  if you have very good risk to reward on the trade   silver therefore technically speaking any  pullback would be viewed as an opportunity   to look further advances but again i'm unlikely  to trade silver because the dollar has not yet   started to score negatively in the scorecards  and last but not least we have bitcoin last week   bitcoin came up and took out the target set at the  45 650 and that was pretty much the high of the   week any pullback here in bitcoin is technically  viewed as an opportunity to look for further   advances and the next gear resistance the upside  in this market is the 50 218 now how bitcoin would   be affected by the ongoing situation in ukraine  i honestly don't know but it has tend to behave   as a speculative asset meaning that if there is  an improvement in the ukrainian situation and   we start to risk on moves you would expect that to  be supportive of high bitcoin prices so that is it   for me for this week guys the reason we're paying  close attention to the ukraine situation in this   week's video i know this has been going on for a  while and largely we have ignored this situation   because it hasn't been feeding through to the  markets we're looking at it this week and heading   into next week because that situation specifically  caused a big risk-off move in the markets   at the end of last week that means we have to pay  attention to it heading into this week and that's   why i'm talking about the ukraine situation this  week even though i haven't been in previous weeks   when we've heard all of this rhetoric or similar  rhetoric before if you don't want to trade next   week you don't have to capital preservation  is always the number one goal but if you do   want to trade i would suggest having both risk on  and risk off setups and trading the markets that   make the most sense as the situation develops and  more information comes in so as always i hope you   enjoyed this video and if you did please let me  know by liking sharing and subscribing big thanks   to everybody who does that on a regular basis and  a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to   the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic  weekend and i want to wish you all the best in   your trading next week the only thing left to  say is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-02-16 03:20

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