Weekly Forex Forecast (07/03/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

hey traders it's john fortune here with this  week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're   having a great weekend last week was a crazy week  in the global markets the russian stock exchange   didn't even open last week and we saw the knock-on  effects of the ukraine moscow conflict rippling   throughout the currency markets but despite that  the scorecard still highlighted seven out of nine   forex pairs that we looked at last week correctly  and if you add in XauUsd and silver it takes it   to 9 out of 11. so despite all of the craziness  last week the scorecard still put us on the right   side of the markets 80 of the time so as always  we're going to have a quick look at the economic   calendar because we had a couple of interest rate  decisions last week and we also have some interest   rate decisions coming up out of the eu out of  the us we're then going to look at scorecards   before moving on to the individual currencies  and looking then at the currency pairs which are   setting up as the best opportunities heading into  next week and then we will finish as we always do   with stocks XauUsd XagUsd and bitcoin so a couple  of key events from the week just gone we did have   an interest rate decision out of australia and we  also had an interest rate decision out of canada   and we saw the canadian central bank raising  interest rates last week from 0.25 to 0.5 if   we head over to this week what's coming up we  do have an interest rate decision out of the eu   so the canadian pairs and the australian pairs  these are going to be good pairs to look to trade   this week and heading into next week because  we've already had the interest rate decisions   so they're not going to be held up in  the same way that the euro pairs might   and when we're looking at the currency scorecards  we have to take into consideration the interest   rate decision on thursday because you might find  the euro pairs don't really do much or move until   thursday if that's the case it will be better to  look at the aussie pairs maybe new zealand maybe   even the pound pairs and if we just jump one week  ahead so not this coming week but the following   week you can see we do also have fomc coming up in  two weeks time and we also have an interest rate   decision out of the uk coming up as well so quite  a bit of data coming up over the next two weeks   but really just to take into account this week  is that euro interest rate decision on thursday   it does mean i would prefer to allocate my  capital into other markets outside of the euro   and if i am going to trade the euro pairs  i'll just maybe take a trade in the euro pairs   rather than multiple trades and get tied up in a  currency which doesn't do anything until thursday   so that's really the only thing to take away  from the economic calendar if we have a look   at the scorecards for the coming week you can see  the best scored currency is the australian dollar   and this is very interesting because what we're  looking at here is essentially a big risk off   event with the ukraine russia war which is going  on all the invasion of ukraine by russia and in   a risk-off scenario you would expect commodity  currencies to suffer in a deflationary scenario   you see the australian dollar primarily and  the new zealand dollar selling off hard against   risk off assets such as the yen such as the frank  such as the dollar we're not actually seeing that   in the scorecards although we have a big risk  off event what we're seeing here is an indication   of a stagflation as opposed to deflation because  risk-off currencies such as the australian dollar   are actually very very strong or they're scoring  very very well and this is of course we're looking   at these scorecards here as a leading indicator  for the coming week or for the coming weeks   and it's telling us that we should expect to see  strength coming into the australian dollar over   the next week or so and the reason for this is  because although we have a risk-off event which   is negative for growth we are seeing a large  amount of inflation because of the oil shock   and the commodity shock that we're seeing in the  markets as it currently stands because it's not   just oil from russia you also have in ukraine  wheat and grains and other commodities which are   also seeing their supply restricted by the ongoing  conflict and for those of you who did the free gmt   courses 100 free videos you will know we covered  the causes of stagflation the implications of   stagflation and how to resolve stagflation within  an economy and for those of you took the course   you'll know you have to go back and fix the root  cause of the problem so this is likely to persist   all the while this conflict is ongoing in ukraine  so heading into next week i absolutely want to be   looking primarily at long australia we  also had the interest rate decision last   week which is great because it means we pretty  much have a clear run in the australian currency   and primarily i'm going to be looking at that  against the euro now the slight problem with   that currency pair although it's highlighted as  the best pair is we do have the interest rate   decision on thursday so we'll have to treat that  as an interest rate decision trade and we'll be   talking about that when we go through the charts i  do like heading into next week pound aussie i also   like aussie yen we're going to be looking at and  although these currencies really are just bullish   to neutral and the yen is bearish to neutral  because this is bullish to neutral bullish strong   bullish and potentially overbought and to the  downside bearish to neutral bearish strong bearish   and potentially oversold is what we're seeing here  in euro despite the fact that these are kind of   bullish to neutral i am still going to be looking  at pound dollar to the downside euro dollar to the   downside because of how weak these currencies are  and we can also look at the new zealand pairs new   zealand yen to the upside pound new zealand to the  downside euro new zealand to the downside as well   we are seeing a strengthening of the cad so if  you really want you could look at the cad pairs   however it's not quite scoring as strong as the  dollar the new zealand as it currently stands   and so i personally would prefer to look  at aussie us dollar new zealand strength   but again i wouldn't be surprised because of  the oil shock to see the canadian dollar start   outperforming over the next two weeks so we'll  be keeping an eye on cad longs but for the moment   i prefer aussie us dollar and new zealand okay  so let's have a look at the individual currency   starting with the us dollar we're on the daily  chart here as always just to take a bit of a   step back and see what's actually happening  here in the currencies you can see that this is   trending to the upside after the oil shock we  did have a rally flight safety in the us dollar   a lot of that coming out of the ruble and we  took out both targets to the upside last week   heading into this week i am still looking further  advances i would expect this to pull back and head   into the 99.00 so really although we're looking  at the scorecards it's kind of bullish to neutral   there is nice momentum in this market and it's  one of the reasons why i do like us dollar long   positions heading into next week next is the euro  the euro suffered from the rally in the us dollar   last week we took out the target to the downside  we were looking further declines in the euro   heading into this week opposite to what we see in  the dollar index you can see we have nice momentum   so i would look for a pullback possibly into the  interest rate decision before further decline so i   like euro shorts next week and it's highlighted in  fact as the best short the pound is also selling   off not as much momentum to the downside here as  in the euro and that's exactly what's reflected in   the scorecards however we do look like we're going  to come down further to the 1.3143 so i like pound   shorts and this really confirms what we looked  at in the scorecards the swiss franc the swiss   franc is essentially neutral and in fact in the  scorecards it's highlighted as bullish to neutral   so you can see there is nothing really here in  terms of momentum however i wouldn't want to be   short the swiss franc but i probably wouldn't  want to be long the swiss franc either if you   consider the dollar index what we looked at just  now compared to the swiss franc you have momentum   coming into the dollar there is no momentum in the  swiss franc so it's one of the reasons i prefer   dollar longs over swiss franc longs despite  the fact they both score bullish to neutral   in the scorecards next is the end very similar to  what we just looked at in the swiss franc but the   other way around we are currently structured to  the downside but we're kind of neutral and it's   kind of bearish to neutral and that's exactly  how it scores in the scoring system so the score   cards reflect really what we're seeing here and  i wouldn't want to be long the japanese yen but i   think there are better shorts like the euro like  pound canadian dollar looks like we're actually   forming an inverse head and shoulders we took out  the target set to the upside last week and if we   are forming a right shoulder here based on the oil  shock i would expect this to come back up retake   the 0.79420 and possibly move on to this high over  here over the next couple of weeks so again you   can see there is strength coming into the cad and  in fact you can look for some cad breakouts next   week look for a break of the 0.79420 that would  be confirming an inverse head and shoulders in the  

canadian dollar and once this was confirmed above  this level this would be the start of a new trend   to the upside so look out for this move in the  canadian dollar next week and although i haven't   included the cad pairs in this week's weekly forex  forecast because it hasn't quite broken out yet   i will update you as to the cad pairs on twitter  for those of you who follow me you don't have to   have twitter you can access my twitter page  throughout the week without being on twitter   but i will update some of these charts throughout  the week on twitter as new information comes   in and things start to change a bit certainly  wouldn't want to be short the canadian dollar   with the recent oil shock australian dollar  really nice momentum to the upside we actually   took out all the targets here to the upside last  week which just goes to show how strong this was   i am looking further advances and this is my  favorite pair or favorite currency i should   say not pair going into next week and i  will be looking to pair this with aussie   long opportunities with the currencies that we're  going to be looking at down here like aussie yen   but primarily pound aussie and eurozi as well so  aussie long's further advances into the 0.7465   i think are going to be one of the most likely  opportunities to make money next week and if we   have a quick look at iron ore prices you can see  we're taking out targets to the upside in iron ore   this is feeding into the strength in  the australian dollar and it underlines   that stagflationary scenario where we're seeing  commodities feeding in to the australian dollar   boosting the price and again making it my most  preferred currency to the upside next week   and finally have a look at the new zealand  the new zealand is coming off the low it's   kind of v bottoming here we may be forming an  inverse head and shoulders over in this area   however i wouldn't want to be short the new  zealand dollar maybe we take the high over here   and we start to flag like this i am going to be  looking at some new zealand long opportunities   as we start to move into a stagflationary  type scenario because as a commodity currency   this should also benefit alongside the cad the  australian dollar and so although it's kind of   bullish to neutral at the moment and it's not as  bullish as the australian dollar i will be looking   at euro new zealand pound new zealand and new  zealand yen when we go through the markets today   okay so let's look at the markets themselves  and of course we cannot start without looking at   crude oil last week i highlighted the fact crude  oil was at a very key area of resistance 95.58   and i do believe without the invasion of ukraine  this actually would have been a top in crude oil   i was hesitant to trade it to the upside whilst  it was in this area however with the invasion of   ukraine we had this massive rally in crude oil  prices this is a big supply shock to the global   economy and this is what's pushing the global  economy into stagflation so in terms of crude   oil itself the first thing to note is this is  likely to be very very volatile so you need to   be careful when trading this if you're trading  it with tight stops you're probably going to get   stopped out or whip sword but any pullback in this  market is going to be viewed as an opportunity to   look for further advances into the 119 119.75  and if we break through here we're going to be   looking up towards the 128.17 just bear in mind  if you are looking to trade crude oil aside from  

the fact that it could get very volatile you may  also find attempts by maybe the u.s for example   to release supplies in order to drive down the  price of crude oil so you are going to be going   along a commodity which is not only volatile  if you buy crude oil but you're also going   to be going against the incentives of central  banks and governing authorities around the world   who want to see the oil price come down so there  is a risk of intervention if you are being long   crude oil so just something to bear in mind  if you want to play it safe instead of getting   involved in crude oil itself you can look to trade  derivatives of crude oil maybe oil stocks or for   example the commodity currencies that we're going  to be looking at canadian dollar aussie dollar and   new zealand etc so we're not going to be looking  at the canadian dollar in this video however   as i said you can keep an eye on it next week and  i'll be posting any updates on twitter if anything   changes with the cad pairs so the first currency  pair we're going to look at is euro aussie   and i have to say this sell-off here this is just  insane i mean this thing is just moving to the   downside almost in a straight line and going into  next week i am looking for the declines i would   be looking i wouldn't jump in right here because  any person who has sold up in these areas and has   or is sitting on large profits is likely to cover  any short positions to book their gains if the   market starts to pull back so you could see quite  a sharp counter trend move some short covering   rally coming into this market so buying at the  lows here risks having that fly in your face   what would be great is if we could get a pull back  first if we got some short covering coming in as   people started to put profits and you started to  see the market correcting backwards perhaps into   thursday you may even find this market because  it's an interest rate decision week for the euro   corrects into thursday and then you get the  breakdown like this and that's your opportunity   to look for continued move down into the 1.4652  so i do like your aussie to the downside but look   for the correction first and just bear in mind  it may correct all the way into the interest   rate decision on thursday next is pound aussie now  pound aussie took out both targets to the downside   last week and although euro aussie actually scores  as the best currency pair i think pound aussie is   my favorite currency pair because we don't have  the interest rate decision like we do with euro   aussie so any pull back this is going to be my  number one pair going into next week any pullback   is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look  for bearish reversals i'm going to be looking   down towards the 1.7754 next is aussie yen now  aussie yen is not highlighted as one of the best   pairs purely because the yen is kind of bearish to  neutral it's not outright bearish like the euro or   like the pound what i'd like seeing aussie yen is  any pull back into these areas down here we start   to correct i'm going to be looking for bullish  breakouts in this market i'm going to be looking   up towards the 85.59 EurUsd, EurUsd is a really  nice looking pair as well again we took out both   targets to the downside last week and heading into  this week we have some really nice momentum in   this pair any pullback in this market and again it  may correct all the way into thursday's interest   rate decision but any pullback in this market will  be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish   reversals and if we start to correct perhaps  into the interest rate decision and then we get   a sell-off like this on the interest rate decision  that's going to be an opportunity to look further   declines into the 1.0781 next is pound dollar now  pound dollar came took out the target last week   and this was actually a really nice performing  market i posted this on twitter as the market was   in these areas that it looked like the pound was  about to sell off and this was really nice trade   last week going into this week i am looking for  the declines and again because of the interest   rate decision out of the euro i think pound dollar  alongside pound aussie may be the second best pair   after pound aussie so any pullback in this market  is going to be viewed as an opportunity to look   for bearish reversals down to the 1.31666 and if  we break through here going to be looking down  

to the 1.3081 next is us dollar japanese yen now  again this market is bullish and it is structured   to the upside but it's not highlighted as one of  my favorite markets purely because you can see   there is not a huge amount of momentum  we're actually a little bit corrective here   and that's because in a risk-off environment us  dollar although the dollar is strong it actually   can sell off or it has exposure to the downside  in risk-off conditions so i will be keeping an   eye on this market next week but it's not one  of my favorite pairs what i would like to see is   because we're kind of ranging between these  levels down here i'd like to see the market   reverse to the upside first i'd like to see some  momentum coming into this market like this and   if we if that happens i'm going to be looking at  further advances into the 116.32 but as i say the   yen pairs are not highlighted as my favorite  pairs next week because the yen is actually   bearish to neutral it's not outright bearish  so i much prefer euro and pound pairs because   these are much weaker currencies than the yen so  they should provide better opportunities heading   into next week over and above the japanese  ten next is euro new zealand again this is   just an insane sell-off to the downside i  mean this is really something just to see   the way this has just sold off without any  corrections we did take out the target as set   last week i was looking for the declines in euro  new zealand although the scale of these declines   was quite surprising heading into this week again  if you're jumping at the lows here you face having   this snap back on any short covering rally so  i'd like to see a pullback in this market first   and any pullback again perhaps into the  interest rate decision and then a sell-off   is going to be viewed as an opportunity to  look for further declines into the 1.5744   pound new zealand we don't have the interest  rate decision out of the pound like we do with   the euro so again i would probably prefer pound  new zealand over and above euro new zealand next   week especially if you're in new zealand you're  aussie and EurUsd just correct into thursday   and become interest rates and trade so you look  for the breakdown on the interest rate decision   before looking to trade it and you trade the  follow-through move well if that's the case it may   be the pound pairs are the only ones which really  moved before the interest rate decision next week   so really strong momentum coming into this market  and we took out both targets to the downside last   week i was looking for further declines in this  market any pullback in this market i'm not going   to jump in at the lows here any pullback  in this market and it could be quite sharp   is going to be viewed as an opportunity to start  to look for bearish reversals down to the 1.9104   and finally we have new zealand yen new zealand  yen again not highlighted is one of the best pairs   next week but it is a market i'm just going to be  keeping an eye on any pullback in this market and   i'd like to see it correct first is going to be  views an opportunity to look for bullish reversals   into the 79.23 so these are the six pairs that i  like the best heading into next week you may only  

get a chance to trade the pound pairs between now  and the interest rate decision out of the eu next   week and it may be that the pound pairs start to  move or provide opportunities at the start of the   week and the euro pairs provide the opportunities  towards the end of the week when we have the   interest rate decision itself okay so finishing  up with stocks gold silver and bitcoin you can see   last week the spx really didn't do very much we  did come down take out the target at 416 922 and   bounced this is still structured to the downside  but as you can see from the previous lows here we   are starting to lack a little bit of momentum here  and although the break of this low last week was a   major reversal in spx the question when you have  this is is this trend change the start of a new   bigger trend or a primary trend to the downside  or otherwise known as an impulse wave or is this   an abc for a correction is this a trend change  which is just a secondary trend a correction   and one of the ways to identify that is you want  to really see a break with momentum below the   lows because that's what you see in third waves  that's what you see when you see all of the people   covering their long positions for example pulling  out and this causes momentum to the downside   we haven't seen that with a breakdown below the  low so as it currently stands stocks themselves   are kind of in no man's land they can really go  either way from here obviously the outlook with   stagflation would be bearish for stocks and i  think that stocks may struggle to rally all the   time there's no resolution to the ukraine russia  situation so on spx i am still technically bearish   and any pullback as it currently stands would be  viewed as an opportunity to look further declines   into the 4169.22 but because of where stocks  currently are and because of the potential for an   end of the ukraine russia conflict over the next  couple of weeks i wouldn't want to be naked short   stocks if you'd like to day trade for example  i would be day trading these to the downside in   the spx but if you're a long term trader i would  be net short as part of a long short portfolio   next is the nasdaq now we're in a very similar  situation to the spx it is currently structured   to the downside and again we're really failing to  break the lows over here with any real momentum   so we're kind of still in no man's land although  we are bearish kind of bearish to neutral   any pullback as it currently stands is viewed as  an opportunity to look for further declines into   the 13.006.27 so again i would be bullish on this  short term but longer term investors the same with   all of these stocks i would be net short on these  next is the dow jones now the dow jones is the   only stock market here which has started to bounce  and looks like it's going to reverse to the upside   technically speaking doesn't mean it's going to  so if you are looking to trade the dow jones i   would be looking for further advances in the dow  jones into the 34 620 and of course if the other   stock markets were to sell off hard this is not  going to materialize this is going to sell off   so what i quite like about the dow jones heading  to this week if you want to be long short you can   look for some long opportunities in the dow jones  or stocks within the dow jones and you could pair   those off with the short opportunities in the spx  in the nasdaq in the russell and i think that sets   up quite a nice long short platform heading into  next week and of course goes without saying you   don't have to get involved with stocks at these  areas if you'd rather wait for a momentum breakout   either to the upside or downside in stocks before  you get back involved that's fine as well nothing   wrong with sitting on the sidelines next is the  russell the russell is still bearish but as you   can see we're really failing here to break the  lows with momentum and if we break back above   this high over here next week this will actually  be a double bottom reversal in the russell so i am   currently bearish but it's really slightly bearish  to neutral any pullback in this market would be   viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts once  again into the 1892.45 again as it currently  

stands kind of in no man's land here and finally  we have the nifty last week i was bearish on the   nifty we came down and we took out the target set  in the nifty heading into this week i am bearish   once again and any pull back in the nifty would  be viewed as an opportunity to look for further   declines into the 15 894.20 and finish it up with  gold silver and bitcoin starting with gold i've   been highlighting this big breakout to the upside  a major breakout in gold for the last few weeks   really since the beginning of the year i can't  remember exactly when we started looking at this   but we did break out above the 1877.24  i said this was a major breakout in gold   we kind of got this whip saw on the russia ukraine  situation and we ended up coming and almost taking   out the target at the 1973.26 from last week going  into this week i am bullish on gold once again   yes we have a stronger dollar but in this kind of  stagflationary scenario you can see both gold and   the dollar rising together as we have been seeing  so i am looking for it to take out the target set   from last week first any pullback in this market  after taking out that target will be viewed as an   opportunity to look for bullish setups once again  into the 2019.40 so really do like gold heading  

into next week XauUsd and XagUsd are top on my  watch list and in fact i will put these in gold   because they are highlighted as two of my favorite  pairs heading into next week alongside the six   forex pairs here next is silver and silver last  week took out the target set to the upside i was   bullish on silver last week any pullback in silver  next week is simply viewed as another opportunity   to look for bullish setups and bullish breakouts  in this market i'm going to be looking up towards   26.30 and last but not least we have bitcoin now  bitcoin actually broke up higher last week and   if we zoom out a little bit on bitcoin you can  see we're kind of ranging in bitcoin i do favor   long positions and so any continued pullback  in bitcoin as it currently stands i am going   to be looking for any breakouts to the upside  and any breakouts to the upside in this market   like this with momentum is going to be views  an opportunity to further advances into the 45   649. so that is it for me for this week guys it  does look like we're heading into stagflation due   to that massive oil shock to the global economy  last week so i do favor commodity currencies and   also precious metals as well heading into next  week as always i hope you enjoyed this video and   if you did please let me know by liking sharing  and subscribing a big thank you to everybody who   does that on a regular basis and a big thank you  to everybody who has subscribed to the channel   so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-03-08 00:16

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