Weekly Forex Forecast (06/12/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
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hey traders it's john fortune here with this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a fantastic weekend before we start just a quick update the free gmt course is coming back online from monday and you will be able to access the full course directly through youtube alongside that we have two new completely free services for you all i get a lot of questions about platform providers and now for the first time if you need assistance looking for a platform provider switching your platform or if you want to just see if you're getting the best spreads you can talk completely free to an industry expert at our website now our team have a huge amount of experience in the industry and they're now available to provide free assistance to anybody who has questions about platform providers so you can now speak directly to a real person with experience to get the help you need and finally you can also sign up now for free for our free market alerts report which goes out from next monday where we will alert all of our subscribers to a number of important market moving catalysts such as insider buying insider selling big misses or beats on earnings reports upgrades and downgrades from rating agencies etc so feel free to head over to the gmt website if you'd like more information on those completely free new services so with that said let's get into today's video we're going to kick off as we always do by having a quick review of key events heading into next week and also the following week we are coming up to a number of interest rate decisions over the next two weeks so we really need to pay attention to these events especially in terms of managing our risk over the next two weeks we're then going to look at the relative currency analysis we're going to look at the scores for the currencies heading into next week we're going to do our individual currency analysis looking at the futures markets of the individual currencies before moving on as we always do to the currency pairs themselves highlighting the best plays in the markets next week and then we will finish as we always do by looking at stocks gold silver and bitcoin so let's have a look at the economic calendar heading into next week the first piece of important data we had non-farm payroll data coming out last week we're not looking at it just purely because going forwards doesn't help us too much going into next week but we do have an interest rate decision coming out of australia on tuesday so the australian pairs are unlikely to move much between now and tuesday and i will personally be looking to trade the australian pairs from tuesday onwards as interest rate decision trade so we'll discuss that more when we go through the actual charts the next thing to pay attention to is the canadian interest rate decision on wednesday so again canadian pair is unlikely to move between now and wednesday and i'll be looking at trading any canadian dollar pairs from wednesday onwards next week and apart from that you can see we have some inflation data on friday not something we really need to plan for if i go ahead an additional week however you can see the following week we do have interest rate decision out of the us we have fomc on wednesday the 15th and we also have an interest rate decision on the thursday out of switzerland and also out of the uk so with all of these interest rate decisions coming up in the next two weeks we really need to play this carefully i would say after the run we've had we've had a fantastic five six seven weeks of really good market moves i would personally be looking to reduce my exposure in forex over the next two weeks i will be looking to trade but i'll probably take slightly less risk trade slightly less pairs and look for the best setups over the next two weeks because the markets are likely to get volatile with these upcoming interest rate decisions once these two weeks have passed they will likely set the direction for the month afterwards so that's when it would be a good idea after the interest rate decisions start to take more risk in the forex markets so to summarize australian pairs really from tuesday onwards next week is what i'll be looking at canadian pairs from wednesday onwards next week is what i'll be looking at and bear in mind we have federal reserve fomc the following week which means over the next week or two we could see the markets kind of flat and then get very volatile which just simply means it's going to be a good idea not to take too much risk in forex and just really pick out the best pairs over the next two weeks okay so let's have a look at the scorecards going into this week and last week we had a really good week getting ahead of those nice moves in the new zealand pairs highlighted last week new zealand was the weakest currency the best short and we had the swiss franc and the us dollar as the two best long positions and NZDCHF to the downside NZDUSD to the downside these were great trades last week coming into this week you can see that the swiss franc has actually extended its lead at the top as the best buy and the japanese yen has also increased by one point the us dollar is the third strongest currency and although we haven't changed since last week you can see exactly as discussed last week we have a deflationary style scenario setting up being shown by the forex markets we have all of the risk-off currencies congregating near the top and down the bottom we have the most exposed currencies to the us dollar which is the commodity currencies new zealand australia and also the euro so the forex complex is pointing towards deflation once again this week and what this is showing us is in fact a lot of the pairs we looked at last week are once again going to be good pairs to look at this week and look to trade so what we're looking at here again would be NZDCHF to the downside i'd be very interested in NZDJPY to the downside again this week NZDUSD to the downside the australian pairs AUDCHF AUDJPY AUDUSD to the downside we have that interest rate decision on tuesday so they will be from tuesday onwards and also the euro pairs so again you're a frank to the downside you're a yen to the downside you're a dollar to the downside these are going to be some of the best players heading into next week interestingly we can see the canadian dollar and the pound are completely flat going into this week i prefer to look for the strong versus the weak currencies as anybody who follows these videos will know that's where we get the best moves but we can also look towards say new zealand cad aussie cad because of the weakness of those currencies going into this week as well but any canadian pairs as i said would be from wednesday onwards after that interest rate decision next week so the scoring system in summary really pointing us back towards the currency pairs that performed so well for us last week okay so let's look at the individual currencies and the reason we do this individual analysis is so we can look in more detail at the currencies themselves for example if you take the canadian dollar just very quickly you can see that although it's relatively neutral compared to other currencies it's actually quite bearish and this tells us if we want to start comparing the canadian dollar to either the strong currencies or the weak currencies we'd probably be better off trading the canadian dollar against the strong currencies like the swiss franc like the end like us dollar because on an individual basis it's actually fairly weak so let's just start with the dxy you can see the dxy technicals are confirming what the relative analysis is showing us which is the dxy is quite strong and this pullback here is currently just viewed as a correction in a bigger ball flag looking further advances to the 9744 so dxy currently technically quite strong if we look at the euro we just have the inverse of what we've looked at in the dxy you can see we had this big momentum sell-off and now we're just correcting really no strong moves to the upside this looks corrective so any continued pullback in the euro is viewed as an opportunity to look further declines down to the 1.11490 so euro quite bearish going into next week technically as well with the pounds now the pound is an interesting one because we came very close to the target set last week at the 1.3180 and you can see the pound is bearish when we look at this individually yes when we look at the relative analysis it's kind of neutral but individually this is quite weak so if i am looking to trade the pound pairs i would prefer let's say GBPUSD to the downside GBPCHF to the downside GBPJPY to the downside next week than maybe GBPAUD to the upside or GBPNZD to the upside so relatively neutral but individually quite weak is the pound the swiss franc the swiss franc took out the target set to the upside last week and the swiss franc was highlighted as a currency to look for strength last week and if you were looking at those NZDCHF to the downside opportunities AUDCHF to the downside you got paid nicely last week so heading into this week what i'd be looking for in the swiss franc is any pullback in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to look for a potential right shoulder for further advances into the 1.1014 i do like the swiss franc technically next week and this is really confirming what we looked at in the relative analysis let's have a quick look at the japanese yen the japanese yen was highlighted as a market to look for further advances last week and we did get further advances again japanese yen strength plays were good plays last week any pullback in this market i will be looking for a potential right shoulder here to form and any pullback will be viewed as an opportunity to look further advances into the 0.008911
and if we can break through here on to target 2 at the 0.009027 the canadian dollar very similar to the pound this is relatively neutral going into next week when we compare all of the different currencies however it's also like the pound quite bearish individually so i would prefer looking at this chart to trade CADCHF to the downside CADJPY to the downside USDCAD to the upside than to trade say AUDCAD or NZDCAD i would prefer those strong currencies versus the canadian dollar next week we did take out the target set at the 0.78095 just bear in mind we have the interest rate decision out of canada on wednesday so that will really dictate the moves in the canadian dollar pairs australian dollar ever since we failed on the inverse head and shoulders up here i have been highlighting the fact that the aussie is set for further declines and i've really been pounding the table on this to say the aussie weakness set up is one of the things you want to pay attention to over the last few weeks and if you've been looking at aussie shorts you got paid very nicely on this we still have iron ore lagging to the downside here dragging the australian dollar down and for those of you who have been following the rba statements in terms of what to expect next week the rba have been pretty consistent with their monetary policy they are saying that interest rates in australia will need to be kept low for an extended period of time so the australian dollar took out both targets to the downside last week and going into this week look at the momentum in the australian dollar any pullback in this market should be viewed as an opportunity for further declines and the next big opportunity in the aussie pairs to make money so continue to look out for those aussie shorts as this momentum is suggesting further declines in the australian dollar and finally the new zealand dollar the new zealand dollar very similar setup to what we looked at in the australian dollar the failed inverse head and shoulders and then the capitulation this was highlighted as the weakest currency last week and the best short it performed fantastic to the downside against the other currencies we came very close to the target set so once again any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look further declined into the target set here at 0.67 260 and then on to the 0.66570 so very interested in new zealand shorts once again okay so dropping down to the four-hour charts let's go through the currency pairs and look at the markets which look to be setting up as the best players next week NZDCHF was the number one currency pair highlighted to the downside last week we did take out the target at 0.62490 you can see this is a green target look at the next target green the following target green these are all high conviction targets so when i look at this and i see that the new zealand is the weakest the frank is the strongest and on this currency pair there are high conviction targets to the downside this pair absolutely once again is the pair the primary pair i'll be keeping my eye on next week and looking to take a position in so any pullback in this market you can see we kind of have a little bit of a descending triangle breakout here any pullback in this market next week is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for short positions down to the next care of support to the downside the target set the zero point six one forty and so for the second week in a row here i think the NZDCHF is setting up as the most likely currency pair next week to pay you to the downside next is NZDJPY last week highlighted the downside a high conviction target the 76.40 these targets
were one of the things that made the new zealand pair so attractive last week and one of the prime reasons i was putting these near the top not just because the new zealand's the weakest but because we had these high conviction targets and again we took out the target last week in NZDJPY going into this week you can see near term we're starting to break out of this again a little bit of a descending triangle type pattern either way it doesn't really matter any pullback in this market is simply viewed next week as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals down towards the next key of support to the downside and a high conviction target in the 74.79 next is NZDUSD NZDUSD has made its way towards the target set at the 0.6725 from last week so we're coming very close to this and i expect this to be taken out next week for anybody not involved from last week if we come down further and take out this target set any bounce from here any profit taken any pullback will be viewed as an opportunity to look once again for bearish setups down towards the next key of support to the downside of the target set at the 0.65 and the final new zealand pair here is NZDCAD now just remember that when we looked at the individual currency analysis the cad was individually selling off and weak and the new zealand was individually selling off a week so when it comes to the cad pairs i personally would prefer CADCHF let's say USDCAD CADJPY which are cad weak setups however i think it's worth putting these on the watch list next week in case we get a hawkish or bullish surprise out of the interest rate decision from canada next wednesday so having NZDCAD AUDCAD in the watch list this week allows us to potentially play that interest rate decision both ways so coming into next week if we start to correct into wednesday and then we get a sell-off in NZDCAD because we have a hawkish surprise out of the boc on wednesday any pullback after that interest rate decision sell-off in this market would be viewed as an opportunity to look for further declines down to the 0.8596 so NZDCAD goes down on my watch list next week as a potential bullish surprise out of the boc on wednesday if we start to see weakness out of the canadian dollar after the interest rate season on wednesday i would leave new NZDCAD completely next week next is the aussie pairs so the first thing to note is because we have an interest rate decision out of australia next week the new zealand pairs absolutely look like the best pairs to focus on in terms of primary setups next week but if we start by looking at AUDCHF you can see AUDCHF did come down and take out the target set in last week's video this was a market highlighted to the downside and we are now approaching the next key of support to the downside again look at the momentum in this market markets do not tend to just v bottom so any pullback next week into the interest rate decision and what i'll be looking for on tuesday is any pullback and a bearish sell-off so we start to form this kind of a move any sell-off after the interest rate decision will be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for further declines down to the next key supports downside the target set the 0.6372 next is AUDJPY AUDJPY was a market highlighted to the downside and we absolutely came down took out the target almost to the point that was the low of the week in AUDJPY last week nice momentum coming into this market once again so any pullback is going to be viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals and if we start to pull back and then on tuesday we get to sell off like this look for continued follow through down towards the next key of sports the downside the target set at the 77.57 next is AUDUSD, AUDUSD came down last week and took out the target set at the 0.7011
so a really nice move in AUDUSD to the downside last week any pullback into the interest rate decision next week will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals and if we start sell-off in the direction of this trend to the downside from tuesday any pullback after that will be viewed as an opportunity to look further declines into the 0.6933 so the first three aussie pairs will really be based on a bearish outcome from the interest rate decision on tuesday and finally we have AUDCAD, AUDCAD again allows us to potentially play this interest rate decision on tuesday both ways we have come down very close to the next kia support to the downside and look at the momentum from this previous consolidation here really nice momentum to the downside so any pullback in this market next week will be viewed as an opportunity to further declines down to next key of support at the zero point eight nine seventy and then on to the next key of support to the downside the zero point eight eight eight eight now i have added this market in because of the technicals because of the momentum to the downside here but just bear in mind this is a market which has two interest rate decisions coming out next week so really i would want to wait for both the australian and canadian interest rate decision to come out before looking to take positions in AUDCAD so i absolutely think there are better markets trade next week instead of AUDCAD such as NZDCHF, NZDJY moving on to the euro pairs now we don't have the interest rate decision problem in the euro pairs like we do with the aussie last week EURCHF was highlighted as a market to the downside we did come down took out the target set going into this week any pullback in this market is simply viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish setups down to the next kiev supports the downside of the target set at the 1.0312 next is EURUSD now EURUSD really didn't go anywhere last week we've just been correcting but this correction is just viewed as a selling opportunity an opportunity to look for bearish reversals so any continued pullback in this market next week and i do quite like euro dollar going into next week now especially with the australian pairs having that interest rate decision but any pullback will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals i'm going to be looking down towards the next care support to the downside target set the 1.1146 and the final euro pair is EURJPY, EURJPY
came very close to achieving the target set last week at the 127.31 so going into this week i would be looking for this target now to be achieved any pullback in this market say we take out this target next week and we start to correct any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down towards the second target set from last week the 126.410 moving on to the canadian dollar pairs and first of all let's have a look at crude oil crude oil was a market highlighted to the downside last week and you can see we came down and we took out the targets at the 6548 and that was pretty much the move there in crude oil so two things to note going into next week with crude oil is that not only is crude oil itself still bearish and any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to once again look for bearish reversals down to next care of support at 62 23 but because of this this really just underscores what we looked at in the individual currencies of the canadian dollar which is that the cad itself is quite weak so again i would really prefer to pair the canadian dollar next week with the strong currencies rather than with the weak currencies so the first cad pair we're going to look at here is CADCHF, CADCHF was a market highlighted to the downside last week we did come down and we took out the target set going into this week any pullback in CADCHF is simply viewed as an opportunity once again to look for bearish setups down to the next kf supports the downside of the target set 0.7089
next is USDCAD, USDCAD was a market highlighted to the upside last week and we did grind to the upside even though the us dollar has just really been correcting so any pullback in this market is going to be viewed once again as an opportunity to look for bullish setups i'm going to be looking into the target set from last week at 1.2879 or if we take this out first and then pull back i'm going to be looking up towards target 2 at the 1.2943 just remember the interest rate decision on wednesday so what we'd really like to see is a pullback in this market like this between now and wednesday and then on wednesday you get that explosive move to the upside for example and then what will happen is you will start to get a bit of a correction like this and then you get follow through towards the target like that that's the interest rate decision set up that i'll be looking for next week correction into it explosive move to the upside in the direction of the trend and then any pullback at that point after the breakout to the upside is viewed as an opportunity to look for long positions so USDCAD from wednesday onwards and finally here the cad pairs we have CADJPY again we're very close to the target so what i would like to see is if we could take this target out first from last week any pullback into wednesday will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups and if we start to get that interest rate decision and a big sell-off like this any pullback will be viewed as an opportunity to look for short positions from wednesday onwards down to the next care of support at the 87.24 and finally we have the pound pairs now when we looked at the individual currencies we saw that the pound was individually quite weak so similar to the cad pairs i would prefer to trade the pound pairs versus the strong currencies than the weak currencies next week last week i highlighted this market to the downside GBPCHF we did take out the targets for another really good market from last week going into this week any pullback in this market will be viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish setups and the good thing about the pound pairs is we don't have those interest rate decisions like we do out of aussie and cad so the pound pairs may actually be good setups going into next week if you want to sidestep some of those interest rate decisions but any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next kiev supports the downside the target set the 1.2053 next is GBPUSD,
GBPUSD is structured to the downside we're coming very close to the target set from last week at the 1.31780 so what i'll be looking for going into next week is especially as the correction looks to be coming to an end in the dollar any bounce from this target here from last week at 1.31780 is going to be viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals in this market down to the next care supports the downside the target set and 1.3080 and the final pair we're going to look at here is pound yen pound gen is a market that was highlighted last week to the downside and we did take out the target that was pretty much the low of the week in this market very simply put going into next week any pullback in this market is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down towards the next kiev supports the downside of the target set or the 148.16 and if we can break through here there's quite a big gap down towards target two at one four five point four ninety so to summarize the new zealand pairs once again really do look like the best place to be paying attention to next week to the downside aussie pairs also look good but we have the interest rate decision out of australia which can shake things up a bit if you want to sidestep those interest rate decisions next week then also the euro pairs and potentially the pound pairs to the downside also look quite good so that guys is how i'm looking to play the forex markets going into next week okay so let's wrap up the video by looking at stocks gold silver and bitcoin i have been previously bearish on stocks and especially with the currency complex pointing us towards deflation i have been warning since the beginning of november that we will likely do a correction in the stock market should have your hedges in place short positions in place and anybody who's been following the weekly forecast and had those hedges in place at the beginning of november not only protected themselves but also you could have done very nicely to the downside so we did take out target set in the spx last week going into this week i am still bearish overall on stocks we have not yet reversed to the upside we haven't seen any strength coming in yet however one thing i would say is i do think we could start to see a bottom here in stocks so if it looks like we could be starting to bottom out and coming towards the end of this correction but at the same time we're not yet bullish in stocks well how can we use that information so the best way to think of it would be like if we had a plus four or a minus four rating in the currency scorecards the way we'd use that information is say we had a rating of plus four well it's very very strong to the point where you may start to top out you don't want to sell it at the top you don't try and pick the top but if you are already long in that currency it's a good time to take profits so the way i'm looking at it in stocks is i don't want to try and pick the bottom necessarily of stocks but because it looks like we may start to bottom out in this correction over the next week or so i have personally unwound some of my hedges taken off the short positions which have paid very nicely since the beginning of november and i am looking into december for the stock market to continue higher now it's always difficult to say that when you're sitting here with stock selling off and there's lots of panic in the markets but the data that i'm looking at suggests there is a good chance we could bounce in stocks fairly soon so going into next week and we may come down take out the target first any pullback is viewed as a potential opportunity to look further declines in stocks down towards the 44 76.44 but i do
think we could start to see stocks higher in the month of december and so in my opinion any short positions now have a greater risk of upside in the stock market and i think this is actually quite a good profit taking opportunity for short positions in the stock market so in order to turn really bullish on stocks once again what we'd like to see is a reversal again perhaps we come and take out the target next week and then we start to reverse up like this and then we look for the right shoulder in following weeks so let me just summarize that because there's a little bit of nuance in here i am still technically bearish on stocks but i do think that the risk of a bounce in stocks is now quite high and so although i wouldn't consider this a place to be super bullish in stocks i would consider this more like a profit taking opportunity for short positions and the time i will get very bullish on stocks once again is if we can start to see a reversal in the indices so patience required a little bit here in the stock market over the next week or so next is the nasdaq now last week we came down took out the target set in the nasdaq i am once again going into this week with a bearish bias on the nasdaq any pullback in this market will be viewed as an opportunity to look further declines into the 15 499.26 but just as we discussed with the spx i do think we're starting to get into an area where there is greater upside potential than downside so again doesn't mean you have to go out and try and buy the bottom here but the data that i use is suggesting to take some profits off the table from short positions or hedges which have been in place since the end of november next is the dow jones now we came down took out the target set last week in the dow jones three four four five eight point sixty and that was actually pretty much the low of the week in dow jones going into this week i am still bearish on the dow jones you can see we are still trending to the downside however just like with all the stock markets i do think there is greater upside risk now any pullback is still viewed as an opportunity to look further declines into the 33 769.09 so if you like to trade the indices themselves this is not the time to go out and start to buy and trying to pick the bottom here but i wouldn't be surprised to see the stock markets turning around over the next week or so next is the russell now the russell came down and took out the target set last week almost to the point really i mean this was pretty much the love of the week last week going into this week i do still have a bearish bias on the russell and any pullback in this market will be viewed as an opportunity to look further declines into the 2107.08 so just as we discussed with
the other stock markets i am still technically bearish but you may find this down move or these corrections are starting to come towards the end and finally we have the nifty now the nifty is a market that's been highlighted to the downside we came quite close to the target and we started to form this bear flag so any pullback in the nifty is still viewed as an opportunity to look for further declines into the next key of support to the downside the target set the 16724.75 so to summarize the stock market just to be clear on this they are all technically structured to the downside if you like to trade the indices themselves i wouldn't suggest going in and trying to buy the bottom of these markets here i'd wait for them to start to reverse first but if you have short positions already in place it does look like a decent time to book some profits on those positions because we're starting to get a greater risk of a reversal to the upside in stocks the next market we're going to look at then is gold now XAUUSD is currently structured to the downside and we do have that failure to break out of the inverse head and shoulders that we highlighted previously if you remember this is very similar to what we saw in the australian dollar versus the us dollar and the new zealand dollar versus the us dollar we had the inverse heavy shoulders failed and it came all the way down took out the previous lows of the inverse head and shoulders so we may see further declines to the downside in XAUUSD if you look at this here we're really stuck in a range which we've been in all the way back since june so i'm not super bearish on XAUUSD, XAUUSD doesn't stand out to me as a fantastic market going into next week but on the balance of probabilities i am favoring further declines to the downside in XAUUSD especially as the us dollar looks like it's going to continue to the upside next week after a short correction so any pullback in XAUUSD next week is viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the next kiev supports the downside of the target set at the 1745.60 next is XAGUSD XAGUSD was a market highlighted to the downside last week and i did say in last week's video i preferred XAGUSD to the downside than to be trading XAUUSD last week and we came down took out the target and that was pretty much the low of the week in silver going into this week any further pullbacks in XAGUSD once again are simply viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals i'm going to be looking down towards the next key of support to the downside the target set at the 21.52 and last but not least we have bitcoin now bitcoin is a very interesting one because look at the sell-off we had here in bitcoin and this just underlines why the videos the weekly forex forecasts are structured in the way they are why we only look to trade markets in the direction of their prevailing trends because nine times out of ten when you get an explosive move like this it's going to be in the direction of the overall trend it's going to be through the path of least resistance and last week we were looking for the declines in bitcoin had a bearish bias on bitcoin and you see the big sell-off coming into bitcoin taking out the targets at the 49-317 so very simply put going into next week any pullback in bitcoin now is viewed as another opportunity to look for bearish reversals really big momentum to the downside is indicating further declines in bitcoin any pullback is viewed as an opportunity to bearish reversals down to the next care supports the downside the target set the 39 630. so a really important lesson there for why trading in the direction of the markets as they're structured in these videos will keep you from being on the wrong side of those moves most of the time and also if you're involved in those trades will actually get you in front of those moves sometimes as well so that is it for me for this week guys new zealand pairs are looking like the best forex markets going into next week stocks are still bearish still correcting but maybe coming towards the end of their corrections now and gold silver and bitcoin are all bearish heading into next week with a stronger dollar really weighing on those markets so with that said i hope you enjoyed this video if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely
2021-12-05 19:05