Weekly Forex Forecast (06/06/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
hey traders it's john fortune here with this week's weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a great weekend last week was a fantastic week the top highlighted pair was caddying to the upside and it actually closed up over four percent last week now something very important to note is over the next two weeks we do have a number of interest rate decisions coming up and so the next two weeks in the markets are likely to get quite volatile and as always we're going to go through the same process and we're going to start with the economic calendar where we're going to see those upcoming interest rate decisions so quick look at the economic calendar shows us first and foremost on tuesday we have an australian interest rate decision and the rba are expected to raise interest rates this is interesting because when we go and look at scorecards the australian pairs are setting up to be one of the best opportunities next week so certainly it's unlikely that we're going to get any movement in the aussie pairs before tuesday say on monday however because this happens very early on in the week this is going to provide good potential setups in the aussie pairs which we're going to go through when we go through the charts so i like the aussie pairs but i'm only going to be trading them from tuesday onwards after the interest rate decision comes out if we scroll down you can see we also have an interest rate decision out of the eu on thursday they're not expected to raise interest rates but when you have interest rate decisions you can see the euro pairs kind of consolidating into this because it's the end of the week whenever i see an interest rate decision at the end of the week i'm still prepared to trade those markets during the week in case the markets move but i won't take too many i won't take three or four euro trades and just sit there while i do nothing all week i will probably just try and pick the best euro pair and trade that in the coming week and if it moves before thursday then fantastic if it doesn't i'm only holding one through the interest rate decision now aside from that we also have some cpi data coming out on friday which considering the current stagflationary scenario and the economic conditions and the impact that inflation is having on bond yields and equities this has recently become more of an important piece of data previously when inflation really was just around the two percent mark before we had the massive stimulus during the coverage recession the cpi data didn't have too much of an impact on the market it's an important piece of data but even more important in today's economic environment so i wouldn't be surprised season volatility in the us dollar pairs and therefore a number of the markets including the euro pairs etc on friday and now if we just skip ahead one week you can see that we have also coming up the following fomc which is the big one and this is very important because it may be the case that the dollar pairs don't move too much into fomc we might see them kind of correct next week and if that's the case you're unlikely to see them moving the following week between monday tuesday and wednesday into fomc so the reason it's important to take note of this now is again a bit like the euro pairs yes i will be interested in trading the dollar pairs because they show up in the scorecards as good opportunities next week but because of this i'm not going to take too many trades i'm going to pick just the best dollar setup next week because if the market's going to correct from now all the dollar pairs are going to correct from now into fomc then i'm just going to be tying up lots of capital in markets which aren't going to move for a week and a half so i don't want to be doing that so very important to pay attention to fomc coming up on june 15th and also the following week we have an interest rate decision out of switzerland and out of the uk so there's quite a lot going on in the next two weeks there's almost certainly going to be opportunities in the markets but the main one really over the next two weeks is that fomc out of the u.s being the global reserve currency it does mean we may see markets a bit subdued into that so just bear that in mind when we go through the markets in today's video okay so looking at scorecards coming into this week and what is the date to say this is one month forward-looking scorecards based around macro data a number of different variables and last week the scorecards were showing a kind of consolidation to say that market opportunities were sort of drying up and we saw over the last two weeks trading conditions became a little bit more tricky however one of the things that was noted in last week's video was although we had nothing really potentially very strong or very weak we did take note of the momentum of the scorecards themselves last week because very often in the scorecards the direction of travel or the momentum precedes the actual score and the thing that was noted last week was the weakening of the yen and we anticipated a further weakening and a shifting of the yen from left to right in the scorecards and that was the result last week the yen pairs were highlighted as the best opportunities last week and if you go and look at their performance they were undoubtedly the best markets to be involved with last week and the second thing i was looking at last week as well was the pound weakness which was really standing out in fairly neutral otherwise bullish to neutral or bearish to neutral scores and the pound pairs held their score at -2 and we did see some declines in those markets such as pound cats the downside which we looked at in last week's video pound aussie to the downside etc so coming to this week we do have some more opportunities on the table here it's telling us trading opportunities are increasing and the australian dollar is highlighted as the best long and although it's highlighted the best long we still have to take this as an interest rate decision trade really going into next week and so when we look at the charts themselves and certainly i'm going to be looking at aussie yen to the upside once again this week poundlessly to the downside once again we're also going to look at euro aussie to the downside i would prefer and i generally prefer to trade those interest rate decision trades after the interest rate decision comes out sometimes i will take a position in advance of the interest rate decision and i will hold through but most of the time i prefer to wait because there's less risk involved because anything can happen on interest rate decisions even if the rba come out and raise interest rates which is inherently bullish for the currency you can see the market discount it and you can see the aussie sell-off so taking positions before interest rate decisions are always more risky because it's not even about whether you get the outcome of the interest rate decision right or not because the market itself doesn't 100 of the time move in the way you would expect it to on those types of decisions so those three currency pairs are certainly going to be on the watch list and right up there at the top we're going to look at those in today's video the second thing to note after the aussie strength or potentially even before the aussie strengths really because it's weaker to the downside is the yen weakness these were as i said traded successfully last week and they are once again at the top of my list i'm looking for continuations in those yen pairs so i'm going to look at aussie yen we'll look at us dollar yen and we're going to look at cadiente to the upside as well and we can also see an increase in the dollar and a decrease in the score of the euro and so i am also going to be interested in looking at some euro shorts this week and also us dollar long positions such as pound dollar to the downside euro dollar to the downside and also silver is a market which i like going into next week the only caveat here with the dollar pairs is this is not a normal week per se because we have fomc coming up in around eight trading days and it doesn't matter whether the scores are bullish or bearish heading to an interest rate decision very often you can see markets consolidating so we are going to look at euro shorts and also u.s dollar long positions but i would just treat those very carefully i wouldn't take too many positions in those markets until fmc is out way so just to summarize aussie strength plays next week and yen weakness plays are my top themes heading into next week but i am also going to be interested in some us dollar and cad strength plays and also euro shorts i'm least interested in the new zealand and the frank pairs next week and although i'm looking at us dollar and euro trades i will be careful and bear in mind fomc coming up and i'm not going to go too heavy in those markets okay so let's look at the individual currencies themselves started with the us dollar and we're on the daily chart here just to get an overall picture of the technicals of these currencies and the reason we do this is because we want to overlay the technicals with the macro framework whenever you're trading you want to have your fundamental bias from your macro framework because macro explains 70 of moves in markets but then you want to use technical analysis to overlay to confirm or deny what your initial bias is from your macro framework so the scorecards are telling us we should be bullish on the us dollar and the technicals themselves are actually showing this as well although we had a steep pullback and we broke below the seven year breakout of the 102.992 which i've discussed previously this is just a deep correction and i don't go too much into this because it's i want to keep these videos as simple as and concise and clear as possible but this is a first degree correction this is a second degree correction a bigger correction this is first this is first this is first this is second so we've had a few first degree corrections when you have this the market kind of stalls out and then you get a deeper correction like this and you can see we're also alternating because the previous deeper correction or the correction to the second degree is shallow in form and we have a deeper one now very often when you have alternations like this you do get new highs and it does look like we're going to rally to new highs possibly onto the 106.08 whether we double top in this area and then come back below the 102.992 is a question for another day in the near term it does look like there's a good chance we rally back into the highs so the technicals here are confirming what we discussed and with fomc that may be the catalyst to push this to new hires or fomc always has the ability to reverse it but for the near term i am looking for a push to new highs in the dollar and as i said fomc is likely to be the deciding factor of where the us dollar goes from here from this major breakout level of the 102.992 next is the euro the euro actually has a setup very similar to silver which i like and we're going to have a look at we broke back above the major breakout level of 1.06710 and i
did say to you previously don't be surprised just to see this consolidate around this level into fmc and we could very well see that which is why i'm not going to go too heavy on euro and dollar positions next week if i do trade them because we may just continue to consolidate in this area what tends to happen and you'll see this with the australian dollar when we go and look at it when we have interest rate decisions the markets have a knack of getting themselves into technical positions where they can go either way and so i wouldn't be surprised to see this consolidate here and that sets it up for a rally and a failure of this breakout on fomc or perhaps even the interest rate decision on thursday or a break back down below here all of the traders who are trying to buy this support level and deep are going to have stop losses here and that will start a catalyst to the downside you don't have to guess which way the market's going to go and be wrong or be on the wrong end of this and lose money the best thing to do in these scenarios is just to wait for the initial move so what i'd really like to see here is i would really like to see the euro breaking down here first like this take out some stop losses down in this area see some momentum and the market will correct it'll probably come back and retest it on the underside like this that would be the opportunity and that's where you're likely going to kickstart the next bigger moves to the downside so i am interested in this and that's what i'm looking for in the euro next is the pound and the pound has traded into resistance and this is where the scorecards come in handy because they will give you your bias to say is this a new breakout to the upside should we be treating this as an inverse head and shoulders or is this more likely to fail at resistance and come down lower the fundamental macro scorecards are telling us on a one month forward looking basis the probabilities lie with further decline so i am bearish on the pound and i expect this attempted break of previous resistance at the 1.2615 to fail swiss franc some of you may have noticed that swiss franc actually went from neutral to bullish to neutral we had a little bit of momentum in the scorecard so you may be thinking well why not trade swiss franc to the upside the problem is with such a steep pullback like this i think there's a good chance we start to come down for further declines in the swiss franc it's also a swiss national bank policy of devaluation and so i just personally don't like the way the swiss franc is setting up this week i would expect further declines to be honest in the swiss franc and i wouldn't be surprised to see the bullish to neutral rating turn to bearish to neutral next is the yen i discussed previously the reasons why we were having such a steep sell-off in the end and the dilemma the boj has between saving their currency or saving their bond market and currently they're choosing to save the bond market and i noted that although this was technically slightly bullish we were actually just in a correction and we had the big sell-off last week and i expect this to break the lows and further declines in the end would see it come down to the 0.0074180 because of the scorecards this week this is one of my favorite positions going into next week is those yen short positions next is the cad the cat has actually reversed to the upside and it looks like we may start to form an inverse head and shoulders in this area and with this recent reversal to the upside in the fact the cad is kind of bullish to neutral in the scorecards i do like canadian positions heading into this week and we are going to look at those in the form of pound cad uh eurocad and also kadyem which paid so nicely last week next is the aussie now remember how i was saying that markets have a knack of getting themselves into technical positions to go either way when you have an interest rate decision that's exactly what we're seeing here with the aussie the aussie has pulled back into resistance this could now consolidate and then break higher like this and you'd have a bit of an inverse head and shoulders reversal or we could have this just pulling back into resistance and then continuing down like this so the aussie really can go either way i'm looking for further advances in the australian dollar based on what we're looking at in the macro scorecards if we get an interest rate decision hike out of the rba don't be surprised see this breaking higher and that would be the sign to start to look further advances breaks higher starts to pull back and those would be your opportunities to the upside that's what i'm going to be looking for next week and finally the new zealand on its own we've got this bear flag which i've discussed in previous videos and i am looking for this to actually resolve itself to the downside it's currently neutral but on balance i think we're going to see further declines in the new zealand dollar okay so let's have a look at the markets themselves last week we took out the slightly longer term target in crude oil we had a nice pullback here this was the opportunity to buy into the 11820 we did take out the target and we're now moving on to the second target any pullback in crude oil next week is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish setups into the 125.95 next is aussie yen aussie yen absolutely smashed through the targets last week and last week's video this was a market highlighted it was this kind of inverse head and shoulders breakout that caused this massive rally to the upside and we looked at it as it was breaking out last week any pullback markets do not tend to have such a steep rally and then just sell off any pullback therefore should be considered as a high probability opportunity to look for bullish setups into the 95.69 we do have an interest rate decision so it is one of my
favorite pairs my top pairs going into next week are aussie yen us dollar yen cad yen pound dollar pound cad and also silver but it's in blue because we have an interest rate decision so what i'd really like to see here is because we're right at the top here i would like to see the market sell off on the interest rate decision and if it sells off and then starts to correct say on tuesday and wednesday then look for the breakout in the tail end of the week in aussie yen that's what i'm going to be looking at and that's one of my favorite setups in fact that's my top set up and top pair going into next week next is us dollar yen now we also had a rally to the upside in us dollar yen we're coming close to the target here so any pullback in this market will be viewed next week as an opportunity to look for bullish breakouts into the 131.34 next is kadyan this was the breakout highlighted in last week's video and it was a great opportunity we took out both targets and in fact look how well respected these targets were we came straight to the first target we consolidated once we broke that we went straight to the second target and then we consolidated again we started to break higher going into this week any pullback in cad yen is viewed as an opportunity to start to look for long positions once again and with such a steep move we're likely going to need a bit of a correction a bit of a pause here first but any correction any pauses simply use another opportunity to look for longs into the 105.28 pound ozzy took out the target to the downside last week and started to break below it any pullback in this market is going to be viewed an opportunity to look for shorts and what i'd like to see again because we're down at the lows if we could get a snapback on the interest rate decision in other words we get a raising of interest rates but the market discounts it and so you see the aussie sell-off and with that i would be looking to fade this i'd be looking for this to peter out and i'd be looking for short positions down to the 1.7174 so i do like pound dollars again it's next
week but i'm going to be looking at this primarily after the interest rate decision on tuesday euro aussie another market i like going into next week but again what i'd like to see is we already have a bit of a correction here so if we continue to correct like this perhaps aussie versus the euro will be the best market if we get a rally in the australian dollar because what will happen is pound aussie which is right at the lows for example would just sell off like this without correction but euro aussie because it's already pulling back it will sell off like this and then you can have the opportunity to look for shorts like this so you could even subdivide these two into different interest rate decision setups whereby if the market discounts the hike and you get a sell-off in the australian dollar you're going to get a nice pullback in all these markets and then you can look to fade it but if the market comes out and say we get an interest rate hike and these markets just sell off because the aussie rallies then euro aussie will probably provide the best setup because you have more of a correction here next is pound dollar this is highlighted as one of my favorite because of what we've seen in the scorecards and i do think we get further declines in pound dollar just bear in mind we have fomc in a week and a half so if i am going to trade dollar pairs probably pound dollar maybe euro dollar or silver would be the top three dollar pairs i'd be interested in trading before fomc you can see we've already started to pull back and we've broken out of this huge correction here we're now starting to break out to the downside so any pullback in this market simply views an opportunity to look for shorts into the previous lows and then on to the 1.2081 may take a couple of weeks to get down here because as i said earlier we had a bigger correction in the dxy next is EURUSD now i like how EURUSD setting up this is pretty interesting we've broken down below the major breakout level in EURUSD we pulled back we retested it we've now broken lower we pulled back we've retested it and this is just simply consolidating around this will almost becomes the mean of the consolidation around this key area this is very typical and this is probably going to last going into fomc what i'd like to see is any correction like this perhaps this just corrects into fomc and this is a market we have to look at not this coming week but the following week if nothing happens into frmc i would like to see the market break down like this all of the traders who bought support so broken resistance turning support they bought here they're going to have stop losses here they're going to get essentially stopped out and they're going to scramble to get out their positions and if we break lower like this this is going to set up the reverse scenario to the downside to the 1.034 so this is the setup i'm looking at but may require a little bit of patience to play out because of fomc and also the euro interest rate decision we have as well this week new zealand dollar i still like this market to the downside but you can see we're just continuing to correct probably just going to correct maybe next week as well and then we break down our fomc and that's the opportunity for the next leg down so again i do like this but we may have to be patient now with fomc on the horizon pound cad we came down took out the target last week at the 1.57370 this is a market i really like going into this week we have some nice
momentum to the downside any pullback and this is one of my favorite setups going into next week any pullback is going to be viewed as the opportunity to look for bearish reversals down to the 1.5576 and the final forex pair here before we move on to gold silver and bitcoin is eurocad i like this market to the downside but it's not highlighted in gold because of the eu interest rate decision on thursday i prefer poundcad any pullback though in this market would be views an opportunity to look for shorts perhaps we correct into the interest rate decision and then we sell off like this that's the opportunity to look for shorts into the 1.3393 okay so wrapping up with XAUUSD XAGUSD and bitcoin the gold silver ratio is still holding above the 83.70 and when i do the commodity score cards and in fact i put XAUUSD and XAGUSD in the commodity
scorecards just because of the way they're constructed in terms of supply and demand variables not only is the gold silver ratio holding above the 83.70 but XAGUSD is rated as one of the worst or best shorts you could say in terms of the commodity complex so i do favor silver to the downside and it's one of my favorite to pair against the dollar if we start by having a look at XAUUSD i am bearish but as i said i favor XAGUSD shorts any further declines in this market and if we come down take out this level we have a confirmed double top here in gold that would be the opportunity markets very rarely break these patterns and just come straight down in a vertical line any break of this confirmed pattern look for a correction that would be the opportunity in my opinion to start to look for shorts in gold down to the 1789.28 next is silver very similar setup and it's also a cross between what we just looked at here in gold and if you remember the EURUSD set up because we have the double top here which is confirmed below here but even more so we have stop loss orders which are going to be on these people who they we broke above the major breakout level of the 21.45 price pulled back they bought this as a dip so broken resistance turning support they bought this but unfortunately they bought this in a downtrend you don't buy support in a downtrend you buy support and sell resistance in a range and when you're in a downtrend you sell resistance when you're in uptrend you buy support but either way they've decided to buy support in an overall downtrend and if the market comes down here you are very likely to see some capitulation as they get stopped out as this double top pattern is confirmed and this turns into a big bear flag and a continuation and any break in a re-test that would be a fantastic setup look for that kind of setup in silver and then for further declines onto the 20.51 so i do like silver but maybe a bit of patience required first look for this to break down below the 2145 if you want additional confirmation or further declines before you get involved in this and last but not least we have bitcoin bitcoin as i mentioned previously in videos failed to even come up and try and reclaim this 3293 we've seen silver we've seen euro we've seen even the yen pairs tried to pull back towards it in fact very similar to the yen pairs like bitcoin got close to it and then sold off so bitcoin is definitely weak as it currently stands and i am still looking for declines for the 24 307 that's where i've been looking at in previous videos we have now started to break down and so any continued pullback either to re-test this area here we get a bit of a head and shoulders or if we break here on a comfort head and shoulders this would be an opportunity to look for shorts in this area and if we break down that would be a second opportunity to look for shorts in this area down to the previous lows and then on to the 24 307.
so that is it for me for this week guys as always i hope you enjoyed this video if you did please let me know by liking sharing and subscribing a big thank to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far i want to wish you a fantastic weekend and i want to wish you all the best in your trading next week the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget to trade safely