Weekly Forex Forecast (01/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + FOMC SET UPS! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (01/11/21) EurUsd / XauUsd + FOMC SET UPS! [HD]

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hey traders it's john fortune here this week's  weekly forex forecast i hope you're having a   fantastic weekend in today's video we're going  to start off by having a quick review of the key   events for next week and we do have a big event  in fomc so it's definitely something we need to   take a look at we're then going to move on to the  scorecards for the currencies coming into this   week and once again last week those scores put  us in front of some of the best moves like euro   new zealand to the downside you're aussie to the  downside once that's complete we're going to move   on to the individual currency analysis we're going  to look at the futures markets for the individual   currencies and then we're going to move on to the  currency pairs matching up the strongest and the   weakest currencies and highlighting what markets  are most likely in all probability going to be the   best place next week and as usual we're going  to wrap up the video by looking at stocks gold   silver and bitcoin and the process the data and  the analysis that i use on the stock market is   suggesting we could be at a near-term top in stock  so something to pay attention to will go through   at the end of the video so first things first  let's go and have a look at the key events coming   up for next week and there are a number of events  coming out next week there's quite a bit going on   which is likely to shape the markets next week  so we do need to pay attention to this this   week the first thing is there are some important  pieces of data like iso manufacturing but this   is more for building out your macro analysis  and the fundamental side of trading whereas   for the short term trading how the markets are  likely to move the main thing we're looking at   here is the interest rate decision on tuesday  as the first thing and following on from that   on wednesday the big one is fomc out of the us  and that is likely to shape not just the dollar   pairs but a lot of the markets possibly all  of the markets that we're going to be looking   at going into next week as well so wednesday  really is the big event this is what you need to   pay attention to coming out next week but going  back to and starting with the australian dollar   on tuesday we have this rba rate statement and  what this means is that the aussie pairs are   most likely going to just correct or move sideways  and do nothing on monday and then go and start to   see the markets moving from tuesday onwards so  in terms of the aussie pairs what i would like   to see is i would like to see as always a move in  the direction of the markets that we're looking at   and any move in that direction you start  to get a pullback that's your opportunity   to look for entries and positions in the direction  of that move for follow-through plays that's how   interest rate decisions are traded with minimum  amount of risk you can of course get involved in   interest rate decisions before they move but  of course if you get on the wrong side of it   it's going to get volatile and you're likely to  be stopped out so if you're managing your risk   that's fine but the safest way to play these  are looking for those follow-through moves   so personally i'm not going to be interested in  the aussie pairs until tuesday onwards we also   have employment data coming out of new zealand on  tuesday this can also act as a catalyst so again   look for the employment data to produce  moves in the direction that we're looking for   in the markets and you can trade any pullbacks any  ball flags for example look for the follow through   and although the employment data doesn't have as  much of an impact as the interest rate decisions   i wouldn't be too surprised to see the new zealand  pairs drifting into tuesday and perhaps starting   to move from the employment data onwards next week  if we scroll down on wednesday as i said the fomc   the meeting the press conference on wednesday is  likely to cap any moves in the dollar before this   takes place and this is also why we saw the dollar  really failing to break any lower and in the end   kind of just drifting sideways being a little bit  choppy last week because of this interest ration   coming up this week so in terms of the dollar  pairs i'm not going to be interested in the dollar   pairs until wednesday onwards again what i would  like to see is a correction consolidation and then   a move in the direction of the markets that we're  looking at and we're going to have markets that   we're looking at today which we can play this  interest rate decision both ways and once we have   those moves i will be looking for any opportunity  to get involved in the direction of travel in the   dollar pairs from wednesday onwards so this  interest rate decision on wednesday really is   going to kick-start not just the dollar pairs but  you could well see most of the markets drifting   sideways into wednesday that does happen because  of the global reserve status of the dollar and so   don't be surprised if a number of markets just  sideways not just the dollar next week into   wednesday and because we're coming up towards the  end of the month here we are coming into november   next week the results of fomc on wednesday are  likely going to shape the direction of travel for   november for the following month so if you have  to wait a couple of days in order to get involved   in the dollar pairs in the markets it's not a big  deal just to wait and see if we get strong moves   from fomc on wednesday and again as i say this  could quite easily provide the direction of travel   for the rest of november if we scroll down further  you can see we also have an interest rate decision   out of the uk and there are not expected to  be any changes in the interest rates however we are in an environment of high levels of  inflation don't be surprised if there are   some surprise interest rate hikes either  way it doesn't really matter because again   if you are waiting for these events to  take place and then getting involved on the   follow-through it doesn't really matter which way  the markets break on the interest rate decisions   you can actually play them both ways so we do have  this interest rate decision on thursday out of the   uk because it's on thursday i just like with the  euro interest rate decisions previously i do like   to trade and i will be looking to trade pound  pairs before thursday because you have most of   the week where the pound can move before thursday  monday tuesday wednesday half of thursday and then   basically it's just the end of thursday and friday  where you have the interest rate decision so if   there's an opportunity to trade pound pairs early  and be out of those markets with a profit before   thursday's interest rate decision that's going  to be something i'm interested in but as i said   previously with the euro pairs i just wouldn't  take too many pound positions because if you get   stuck in a pound trade and it goes nowhere and  you want to cut it for a small loss or you hold   through the interest rate decision on thursday  you don't want to be in too many pairs taking too   much risk if that takes place so i wouldn't mind  looking at any good pound setups before thursday   next week but probably only just take the best one  that i like and finally next week you can see that   we have canadian employment data which can act  as a catalyst again just like any employment   data but because it's on friday i will be  looking to trade the cad pairs before that   and we also have non-farm employment data coming  out on friday now very often you can see non-farm   payrolls week the market just drifts sideways  and you can have very slow markets in non-farm   payrolls week until the nfp data is released  however the interest rate decision out of the   us on wednesday is likely to take priority and  precedence over the nfp data coming out on friday   so i don't think we're gonna have to wait all the  way into friday to see moves in the dollar pairs   i think the moves are going to start in the  dollar pairs and possibly in other pairs as   well from wednesday onwards once we have fomc out  of the way so to summarize here we have a lot of   data coming out next week how i personally like to  play this is i won't be interested in the aussie   pairs until this interest rate season on tuesday  because on monday they're unlikely to move and   it's pointless being in markets which go nowhere  i will be looking to trade the dollar pairs   from wednesday onwards after the interest  rate decision and in terms of the pound pairs   i will be interested in taking one maybe  maximum two pound trades before thursday   but i won't go much more than that because of the  interest rate decision on thursday and again just   to finish off as i said although we have non-farm  payrolls data on friday i suspect because of all   the other data we have next week that moves are  going to take place before the nfp data on friday   so i think this is likely to be overshadowed by  everything else that's going on throughout the   week so quite a lot of data coming out next week  it's not a week to go crazy on it's really a week   to be a little bit patient and see how the market  starts to unfold with a view to the rest of the   month of november so again important as always to  look at the economic calendar because it gives us   our pathway and our timings of the markets next  week so moving on to the scorecards for this week   and just quickly you can see last week one of the  key things was the weakness of the japanese yen   and over the last two weeks i said to you guys  that the yen is so weak that we should expect   actually counterintuitively almost a little bit of  strength to come in as profit taking comes in and   we've been off the end pairs for a couple of weeks  now and we did see the yen strengthen somewhat   and we're back in that zone now where the yen is  once again looking like a decent short opportunity   so the first thing to note is that from this week  onwards the yen pairs look to be back into play   after the profit taking has come in and we've had  a very short near-term correction the euro pairs   to the downside were some of the best markets last  week especially vis-a-vis the new zealand dollar   and also the aussie dollar and even against the  us dollar the aussie dollar and new zealand dollar   finished the week up but coming to this week fomc  week we've seen a number of the currency shift   and the first thing to note as is almost always  the case leading into a big fomc event is the   dollar is completely neutral it's completely  flat and this is virtually always the case   lean into a big event like wednesday since the big  key interest rate decisions very often kick-start   the move for the following quarter and so what  we're seeing here in the scoring system is that   traders are essentially waiting beforehand  until fomc before they start to put their money   into the markets which is exactly as we discussed  when we went through the economic calendar as a   way to approach the fomc event next wednesday  the new zealand dollar is still the strongest   currency followed by the australian dollar and you  can see there has been no change since last week   in those two currencies so once again i do like  australian and new zealand dollar strength plays   going into this week the third strongest currency  this week is the swiss franc now if we look at   the actual score and of course we have maximum  minimum of four in the scoring system it's only   plus one so it's not super strong it's only  slightly bullish however you can see this is   plus two from last week so we're seeing that swiss  franc strengthening it's not super strong but it's   strengthening and this strength could continue  into next week we could see the swiss franc   strengthening maybe from one two two or three so  swiss franc strength pairs are something that i'm   going to be interested in and we're going to look  at when we go through the charts this week the   canadian dollar has actually slipped somewhat to  now a scoring of one and this was previously three   and in fact we've traded the canadian dollar to  the upside very nicely in previous videos and then   we got so extended we waited we saw some profit  taking coming in and now it's kind of drifting   back into a neutral territory so going into this  week i'm not completely bowled over by canadian   dollar setups we are going to look at some cad  strength plays however i would much prefer to look   at new zealand aussie and swiss franc strength  plays going into next week and again we're going   to look at this when we go through the charts  the us dollar as i said is completely neutral   and this is unlikely to change until wednesday  so we're going to look at dollar pairs to the   upside and the downside going into next week for  those potential interest rate decision plays from   wednesday onwards the euro is still weak at -2  and this was one of the best shorts identified   not just last week but also the week before and in  fact we've been short primarily euro aussie euro   new zealand for the last three weeks and we've had  three big down weeks that this scoring system has   put us in front of in those markets so the euro  is still weak going into next week but because   it makes up 57 of the dollar index the euro is  likely to be affected next week by fomc as well   so everything we're discussing here is with fomc  on wednesday in mind because it has the ability as   i said not just to affect the direction of the  dollars next move but also other currencies as   well especially the euro and finally to the short  side we also have the pound which has slipped from   neutral last week to minus two so i do like pound  short setups going into this week it's something   i'm going to be looking at before thursday and we  saw some strengthening of the japanese yen as i   said but this is actually a good thing because it  was so weak we should expect some profit taking to   come in over the last two weeks it's exactly what  we've seen and now we're getting back into a place   where i would be interested to start to look for  yen weak setups again and after leaving those yen   pairs that we've been looking at over the last two  weeks after leaving them as profit taking comes in   be interested to look for potential opportunities  in those directions that we were previously   looking at because again just like the canadian  dollar strength plays that we had in previous   videos the scoring system also puts us in front of  those big yen moves so caddy enter the upside new   zealand yen to the upside aussie into the upside  so from next week onwards i will be interested   in looking to get back into those markets in  those directions again so the key takeaways   from scoring this week is that aussie new zealand  are still my favorite long plays euro and yen are   still looking like the best shorts and also the  shifting to the weak side of the pound and to   the strong side for the swiss franc is something  i'm going to be paying attention going into next   week and pound frank to the downside is actually  something we're going to look at in the video   and it's a market that is interesting to me next  week and we'll discuss this in more detail so what   would that look like well it would look like pound  new zealand to the downside i'd be interested   in pound aussie to the downside pound frank as  i said to the downside i will also be looking   at euro aussie euro new zealand to the downside  euro frank to the downside we're going to look at   the dollar pairs as i said we will look at but  they will be interest rate decision plays that   i'll be looking to trade next week and we're  also going to be looking once again at those   new zealand aussie yen setups to the upside so  let's now have a look at the individual currencies   and this is what we set up with last week in the  dxy i noted that we had this double top confirmed   we're looking for a sell-off into the 93.25  we came very very close within just a couple   of points and then we reverted back higher why  the dxy got choppy last week because of this   interest rate decision the market wasn't prepared  to find a strong directional bias one way or the   other before this wednesday's fomc meeting so if  i readjust these levels for this week and i leave   on the double top confirmation level here you  can see leading up to fomc on wednesday we have   what i've noted in previous videos is that  we have this kind of one up one down leading   into the interest rate decision the market  is technically structuring itself in a way   that it can move in either direction because what  we have here is we have a near term double bottom   which has given us our current technical bullish  bias confirmed above this level and this comes   after the double top confirmation over here so  we have a confirmed double top which is a bearish   reversal pattern and we have as of last week with  this rally higher a bullish reversal pattern in   the form of this double bottom and the market is  sitting right between these two patterns and it's   probably going to continue to sit there until  wednesday and then one of those patterns will   fail and one of them will succeed hence why going  into next week we don't actually have to take any   positions in the dollar pairs until wednesday we  can wait for fomc and if we get a bullish reaction   we can start to trade the dollar to the upside  if we get a bearish reaction we can start trade   the dollar to the downside so in terms of the  dxy itself next week the technicals do not   provide too much of an insight as to the direction  next week because the direction is likely to be   decided on wednesday during the fomc meeting and  although the dollar pairs are going to be some of   the key markets that i'm going to be looking at  next week we're going to look in today's video   at the dollar markets which are structured in  opposite directions so regardless of which way   the dollar breaks whether we continue this rally  higher or we start to reverse and break the 93 49   we will have setups where we can attempt to  play that move both ways so the key next week   really in the dollar in my opinion is to be  reactive as opposed to trying to be predictive   next is the euro now just like we looked at in the  dollar i've left on these levels initially here   from last week and you can see we're looking for  a move into the 1.1690 and that was pretty much   the high of the week we took out this target to  the pip almost and then reversed so coming into   this week looking at the structure we do have this  near term double top and technically speaking i am   bearish on the euro but just like we looked at  in the dxy it is more or less meaningless when   fomc on wednesday has the ability to reverse the  direction of both the euro and the dollar as well   as the other currencies in fact so again this week  the technicals in the euro are not too helpful   on a forwards looking basis and the euro pairs are  best traded as well like interest rate decision   trades from wednesday onwards because you're going  to get moves in the euro just as much as you're   going to get moves in the dollar and when we look  at the euro pairs like euro new zealand or aussie   i'll discuss the directions those markets will  move whether you have a bullish or negative   reaction from the dxy on wednesday next is the  pound and we're on the daily charts here you   can see the pound is still structured to the  downside and i noted in previous videos that   we had this major double top confirmation and  again the pound is sitting in an area where it   could break either way because we're sitting  above this in fact we're sitting right at the   confirmation level of this double top so we could  start to break higher if we see the dollar selling   off next week or if we get a strength of the  dollar we will see the pound continue down as it   currently stands the pound is actually bearish  technically and this adds some weight to some   pound week setups next week and it's one of the  reasons i'm interested in pound shorts but again   pound pairs will also be affected by the interest  rate decision on wednesday next is the swiss franc   i discussed in previous videos this inverse head  and shoulders after this head and shoulders this   kind of one up one down so the swiss franc is  sitting right in there it could go either way but   i am technically bullish on this after the most  recent break was the inverse head and shoulders   to the upside and we are seeing some strength  coming into the frank so also confirming what we   looked at in the scoring system but again swiss  franc will be affected by a fomc on wednesday   next is the japanese yen in previous videos we  were looking for declines and yen shorts was   a big theme we were looking at in previous  videos it paid off very nicely and we went   neutral on the japanese yen looking for some  profit taking to come in a couple of weeks   ago we've had this yes the yen could continue a  little bit higher perhaps it comes back a little   bit more but i am now interested to start to look  for those bearish setups in the end once again   goes without saying as all the currencies  will be affected by fomc on wednesday but   yen shorts are something i'm interested in once  again now canadian dollar in previous videos i was   bullish on the canadian dollar we had this inverse  head shoulders breakout we had a really nice rally   paid very nicely in the cad pairs and we got  right to the inverse head and shoulders target   of this break here and as we tagged this we were  also plus four on the scoring system for the cad   so those two things combined led me to the opinion  that we should be patient look for profit taking   in the cad pairs we did get that and we are kind  of neutral now in the canadian dollar you can see   this is not bearish we're actually consolidating  in an overall uptrend but when we look at the   scoring system a rating of plus one is kind of  neutral so i would like to see if this is going   to strengthen i'd like to see it strengthen once  again first start to break higher and then i'd be   interested in getting back into cad pairs so cad  pairs quite far down on my list this week although   we will be looking at them australian dollar the  australian dollar is grinding to the upside and   i did note in previous videos this is a major  breakout in the australian dollar now when you   have a breakout like this with an inverse head and  shoulders the question as always is is this an a   b and a c and you're going to start to continue  down or is this the start of a third wave and a   new trend to the upside and very often when you  have breaks like this they coincide with what   big news events like fomc so fomc on wednesday  is likely to decide whether this is a one a two   and a third wave to the upside in the australian  dollar if that's the case we're going to see the   dollar selling off from wednesday onwards or  if we start to see a strengthening of the dxy   that will lead to the aussie breaking down and  this could be a false breakout for the next leg   down in the australian dollar again this is  likely to be decided from wednesday onwards   and finally if we look at the new zealand dollar  we have exactly the same setup is this the start   of a third wave to the upside i mean look where  we're sitting right at the breakout point could   go either way or is it going to fail as a breakout  and turn into an a b and a c for the next leg down   well if that was going to happen we would need  to see fomc providing a strong directional bias   in the dxy on wednesday so again should go without  saying at this point that shouldn't be taking too   much risk before wednesday because that is likely  going to decide the next big move not only the dxy   but all of the other markets as well for not just  november but perhaps the next few months as well   so let's go through the markets and start with  crude oil crude oil is market structure to the   upside i am still bullish on crude oil but with  fomc on wednesday i personally would just like to   be a bit patient we've had a really nice run and  i wouldn't be surprised to see crude oil continue   to correct so personally speaking i'd prefer to  wait until after wednesday to assess crude oil   see if there's any opportunities in crude oil but  any continued correction will be simply viewed as   an opportunity to look for bullish reversals  up towards the next care resistance outside   the target set at the 88.75 when we go through  the markets we're not going to be looking at the   canadian dollar pairs in relation to crude oil  because fomc on wednesday is likely to dictate   the next moves in the canadian dollar rather  than crude oil as would normally be the case   without fmc so let's start by looking at the  dollar pairs and you're going to see as we go   through the dollar pairs here i have markets which  structures the upside markets which structure the   downside and this is so regardless of whichever  way the interest rate decision goes next week   we can attempt to play the follow-through after  the interest rate decision so we're going to   start with pound dollar to the downside which of  course would be a bullish reaction from the dx y   and we're starting with dollar strength plays as  my bias is for a more hawkish fed on wednesday   and therefore to see the dollar start to rise  and so i expect we're most likely going to see   dollar strength coming into the markets but as  a plan b if that doesn't happen and we see the   reverse happening we see dollar weakness we can  also go to some dollar pairs to the downside   namely new zealand dollar up aussie dollar up us  dollar cad so starting with pandola what i'd like   to see is i expect this to correct maybe we come  down a little bit but i expect this to correct   into wednesday and then if we start to break  lower on wednesday as we get dollar strengthening   i'm going to be looking at initiating shorts  down towards the next key of support to the   downside in the target set the 1.3610 next  is euro dollar these were the levels set up  

last week in euro dollar and i've left this  on because this is very interesting to note   because when we look at the currencies here  we're looking at them on a relative basis   and i often get asked sometimes like last week  if we're looking at euro dollar to the upside   and you're aussie to the downside how can you be  bullish on euro dollar and bearish on your aussie   doesn't make sense because you're essentially  going opposite directions in the euro however   you can see we had a rally to the upside at the  same time we took out targets to the downside   so it's important to remember when you're  looking at currencies it's all relative   so switching over to the levels for this week you  can see after this major double top reversal at   the end of last week i do go into this week with  a bearish disposition on the euro technically   and so going into next week if we start to  correct and we start to form this bear flag   and then we break out to the downside on a  strong or hawkish fomc i'm going to be looking   for any pullbacks in this area and i'm going to  be looking at initiating shorts down towards the   next key area of support to the downside of the  target set at the 1.1495 so pound and euro the   two weakest currencies going into next week and  therefore in my opinion the best dollar strength   plays from wednesday onwards in the fomc if on the  other hand we get a big sell-off in the u.s dollar   for whatever reason the first market i'll pivot to  is new zealand dollar since the new zealand dollar   is the strongest currency right now so what i'll  be looking for next week is if we start to correct   lower and then on wednesday on fomc we get a rally  to the upside like this i'm going to be looking   any pullback at initiating longs up towards the  next care resistance the upside the target set   and 0.72 the next dollar weak play i like from  wednesday onwards is aussie dollar we are very  

close to the target set from previous weeks at  0.7562 so perhaps we come and take out this target   first before wednesday and then start to correct  as proper taking comes in or we just simply start   to correct in this market before wednesday if  that takes place and then on wednesday we get   a rally to the upside in this market and we start  to correct that's going to be the opportunity to   start to look for bullish setups let me just draw  this again to make this a little bit clearer so we   take out the target set first and then we pull  back or we just start to correct from this area   i'm going to be looking at a rally to the upside  on wednesday at looking to initiate bullish setups   into the previous target at 0.7562 if we haven't  already taken it out and then after this onto   the 0.76870 and bearing in mind that this would  be the continuation of a third wave in aussie   dollar to the upside because this was the major  breakout point we looked at in previous videos and finally to the downside i would  also be looking at us dollar cad   we are correcting already in u.s dollar cad you  can see this is pretty neutral heading into fmc   any continued correction into wednesday followed  by a sell-off in the us dollar is going to be   viewed as the opportunity to start to look for  bearish setups down to the next kia supports the   downside target set and the 1.21790 so all eyes  on wednesday for the next moves in the dollar  

pairs and that is how i'll be looking to play  the us dollar pairs next week moving on to the   yen pairs new zealand gen is the top of my list  and i put this fibonacci on for you previously   just to show you that it looks like  we're in a fourth wave if we come back   and you can see we had a one a deep two a three  and now it looks like we're in a shallow four or   shallow in form could be a triangle could be  a very shallow abc etc but i am now interested   once again in looking for further moves to the  upside in the empires any continued pullback   towards the 382 which is over here is going to  be viewed as an opportunity to start to look for   bullish reversals in this market and perhaps  we get it on wednesday perhaps the market goes   nowhere and then it moves from wednesday onwards  so you can trade these pairs almost like interest   rate decision pairs as well because they're  likely to be affected by a firm c any brake   higher is going to be viewed as the opportunity  to look for bullish setups into the next key of   resistance the upside in the target set the 82  68. next is aussie yen aussie yen also looks to be   in a third wave or i should say in a fourth wave  after this third wave rally to the upside here's   the inverse and shoulders here's the breakout  and this is what we're looking at but perhaps   ahead of time in aussie dollar new zealand dollar  we have this inverse head and shoulders plate and   we are sitting right here at the aussie us dollar  and new zealand us dollar pairs to the upside   so any continued pullback in this market is  going to be viewed maybe we come down from a bnsc   as an opportunity to start to look for bullish  setups up towards the next care resistance outside   the target set at the 87.190 cad yen i do prefer  new zealand and aussie yen for reasons discussed   but in kjam we pulled back and tested this  previous key area of potential support and we   tested this almost to the point i left this on  in previous videos now we've tested this maybe   we come down and re-test it once again but any  continued pullback is viewed now as an opportunity   to once again look for bullish reversals i'm going  to be looking up towards the next care resistance   outside the target set and the 93.21 and if we  break through here going to be looking up towards   target two at the 94.45 again may only start to  break out from wednesday onwards and the last   gen p we're going to look at is us dollar yen us  dollar yen took out the target previously set at   the one one four four ninety and going into  this week you can see we're consolidating   any continued consolidation will be viewed  an opportunity to look for bullish reversals   up towards the next care resistance outside  the target set the 115.50 moving on to the   pound and euro pairs starting with pound new  zealand pound new zealand is trending to the   downside and i do like this as a short going into  next week the one thing to pay attention to next   week is that pound new zealand the same as pound  aussie especially euro new zealand euro aussie   these are going to be affected by a pharmacy  on wednesday and how these markets are affected   is based around the fact that the australian  dollar and the new zealand dollar are more exposed   to volatility in the dxy what that means is if  the us dollar strengthens you tend to see the new   zealand dollar and the aussie dollar weakening at  a faster rate than the other currencies like the   g10 currencies and if the us dollar sells off  you tend to see the new zealand dollar and the   australian dollar appreciating at a faster rate so  generally speaking as a rule of thumb you tend to   see with a strong dollar pound new zealand to the  upside pound aussie to the upside euro new zealand   to the upside you're aussie to the upside and  with a weaker dollar or a sell-off in the dollar   as a rule of thumb you tend to see pound new  zealand to the downside pandoli to the downside   euro new zealand to the downside you're aussie to  the downside so if you don't take any risk before   fomc on wednesday that's fine but if you are  looking to get involved in one or two pairs   before wednesday which are non-dollar pairs like  pound new zealand euro new zealand the opportunity   i'd be looking at in this market or of course you  could just trade it as an interest rate decision   on wednesday if it doesn't move any pullback in  this market will be viewed as an opportunity to   look for bearish reversals down to the next  kf supports the downside of the target set   at the one eight nine four two the next market  to the downside like is pound ozzy pound as he   broke out of this recent pandora's he broke out  of this near-term consolidation here and we're   breaking with momentum now when we tend to break  patterns with momentum like this you start to see   the market correcting and then you get more follow  through in this case to the downside or the upside   so i do like this i am looking for a bear flag  pattern starts for next week any pullback in this   market will be viewed as an opportunity to look  for bearish reversals down to next care supports   the downside in the target set at the 1.8062 pound  frank now pound frank is a very interesting one  

because we had an inverse head and shoulders to  the upside in pound frank and just look at how   choppy this market has been we've not looked  at this market in the forecast for a long time   and or we've rarely looked at it and it's because  the market has been extremely choppy both the   pound and the swiss franc have been fairly evenly  matched going into this week for one of the first   weeks in a long time the pound is significantly  or markedly weaker than the swiss franc   and we could as a result start to see this very  very choppy consolidation pattern all the way back   from april may actually start to break out  and it looks would be suggestive as a failure   to the downside with this inverse head and  shoulders failing so if we break the 1.2470   in this market we could actually see some strong  momentum coming in as all of these traders who   have been trading this to the upside looking  to buy into this inverse head and shoulders   they're going to have stop losses down in this  area some will be more aggressive down below   the right shoulder so you could see some momentum  here and others will be more conservative in their   stop-loss approach should be down below this low  here but either way if we break these levels we're   likely to see some momentum coming in so pound  frank is a very interesting market and because it   doesn't have an aussie or a new zealand in it it's  going to be less affected by fomc on wednesday so   if you're looking for one of those pre-fomc trades  pam frank could actually be quite a good one next   week is not going to be a week to have tight stop  losses anyway but pound swiss franc is likely to   be less affected than pound aussie pound new  zealand it will be less volatile during fomc   so i do like pound frank to the downside and this  would probably be my favorite one out of all the   pound pairs as a pre fomc trade what i'd like to  see then next week is any pullback in this market   will be viewed as an opportunity to look  for bearish setups and we're breaking below   here with momentum this is potentially a very  nice setup and in fact one of my favorite ones   between monday and wednesday going into next  week any pullback i'm going to be looking   at initiating shorts down towards the next kia  supports the downside the target set the 1.2470   and the final pound per pound cad pound cad is a  very sideways market and what i'd like to see is   i mean just eyeing this off you can see this  is not as nice as set up as the other markets   here there is no real momentum it's very very  choppy what i would like to see then if i was   going to trade this is i would like to see a  continued correction probably into wednesday   any reversal from fomc to the downside like this  that would be the opportunity to start to look for   short positions down to the next key of support at  1.6862 as i said earlier the cad pairs however are  

the least favorite pairs of all the ones that  we're looking at for me next week and wrapping   up the currencies with euro new zealand and the  euro pairs euro new zealand destruction to the   downside we took out the target set last week at  the 1.61390 and this was highlighted as one of the   best pairs to trade last week and we had a really  nice down week again taking out the target almost   the point here in fact coming into this week i  am looking for further declines any correction   will be viewed as an opportunity to start to look  for bearish reversals and don't forget what we   could have we could have fmc and euro new zealand  snaps back and then starts to fade in this area   and breaks down and then you can start to go  short or maybe it starts to correct before fomc   and then starts to break down in which case it  can be traded like an interest rate decision   either way i am only interested in short positions  in this market next week looking down towards the   next key of support at the 1.6029 you're aussie  your aussie was another market highlighted to the   downside as one of the best markets to look  for last week and we had a really nice move   into the target set another big down week in your  aussie any pullback in this market will be viewed   as an opportunity to start to look for bearish  reversals down towards the next key of support to   the downside the target is set with 1.5271 euro  frank very similar to what i've discussed with   pound franc if you're looking to get involved in  an opportunity before fomc or holding a position   through fomc euro frank to the downside and  pound frank to the downside would be my two main   currencies to look to do that why because they are  going to be less affected by a fomc than the pairs   with the australian dollar or the new zealand  dollar in it look at the momentum we have here   to the downside in eurofrank this is looking like  a very very nice market going into next week so   eurofrank and pound frank with fomc on wednesday  are two of my favorite pairs going into next week   any pullback in this market is going to be viewed  as an opportunity to trade this as a bear flag and   i'm going to be looking for further declines down  towards the next key of support to the downside   of the target set at the 1.0533 and last but in  this case probably also least eurocad very very   sideways and in fact we're approaching the targets  down here so very similar to poundcad what i would   want to see here if i am going to trade this is i  want to see this continue to pull back like this   and then any brake lower would be viewed as the  opportunity to start to look for short positions   down to the next gear support to the downside the  1.4266 in all honesty even though we've looked at   them i will probably not trade the canadian dollar  pairs next week personally moving on to stocks and   looking at the spx ever since we broke out we've  bottomed down in this area we've been looking for   moves to the upside and we took out the target  last week set at the four five eight 146. that  

capped off a really nice week in spx and in stocks  going into this week it does look like we're   going to take out the target of the 462213 perhaps  heading into wednesday however very similar to the   process we look at with the currencies and we get  a currency which is plus four or minus four and in   that scenario you're looking at almost being over  extended and you expect profit taking to come in   the process and the analysis that i go through  personally on stocks is telling me the same thing   it doesn't mean that stocks are bearish but it's  telling me that it's most likely a profit-taking   situation and we could have a very short near-term  top in stocks so i'm not talking about a market   crash i'm just talking about a correction similar  to the profit taking we saw previously in the   canadian and the yen pairs so just bear that  in mind going into next week i think it could   be a good time to book some profits on spx or on  stocks if you are involved in these to the upside   if we do take out the six two two especially bear  in mind as we have fomc on wednesday and the fed   could get hawkish but if we take out the four six  two two one three i'm going to look for a pullback   going to be looking for that correction and once  we have a pullback and a correction i'm going to   be looking at initiating longs once we start to  break out up towards the next care resistance   the upside the target set the 467364 next is the  nasdaq i did highlight previously this inverse   head and shoulders breakout here and we have now  taken out the target set in the nasdaq last week   going into this week i am still bullish on  stocks but as i said across all the stock markets   i do think there's a good chance we could see  a near-term correction a near-term top and i   am viewing stocks as a profit taking opportunity  as opposed to being bearish on them so what i'd   like to see here is if we could start to pull back  and we could get a correction in the stock market   any reversal hire any break higher would be viewed  as an opportunity to start to look for bullish   opportunities once again up towards the next care  of resistance the outside the target set the 15   998.92 next is the dow jones the dow jones is very  close to completing the target previously set i   would not be surprised to take out this target  and then correct a little bit again i think we   could see profit taking coming into stocks near  term any pullback once we've taken out this   target would be viewed simply as an opportunity  to look for bullish reversals we're going to be   looking up towards the second key of resistance  the outside the target set and a 36 428.44 so   don't be surprised to see dow jones taking out  his target and starting to correct next week   next is the russell now as the other stock indices  have moved higher the russell has really has been   moving higher but it's kind of only grinded higher  we are very close to the target here as well so   again i am looking for this target to be completed  once we take out this target any pullback   any near-term profit taking correction in this  market will be viewed as an opportunity to once   again look for bullish reversals up towards the  next care resistance outside the target set and   the 23 70.51 and of course all of these stock  indices are likely to be affected by fomc on   wednesday and last but not least we have the nifty  now i have been bullish on the nifty for quite a   while really down in this area i highlighted this  inverse head and shoulders in the nifty and this   kick started this major trend to the upside and we  were bullish ever since we broke out of this and   this has been a fantastic performing market and  for the first time in a long time i have turned   bearish on the nifty does not mean that i think  it's a great idea to go out and short the nifty   but what it does mean is it could be a good idea  to start to get some protection into any portfolio   in case you get continued downside in the nifty  or if you like to be long only as i always say you   can just simply wait for this market to continue  to correct and once we start to reverse higher   just as we did down here for example market  corrects and then we start to reverse higher   you can start to look to be bullish once  again but i would at the very least be   patient on long positions in the nifty the next  key of support to the downside is the 17 437.35   i'm going to finish off here with gold silver  and bitcoin now what's really interesting   going into this week is that gold and silver are  structured in opposite directions however they're   both likely to move in the same direction next  week whichever direction that is so what this   does is this sets us up with a natural opportunity  to position after fomc in one or the other very   similar to what we looked at with EURUSD to the  downside and then on the other hand aussie dollar   to the upside so XAUUSD is structured to the  downside so going into next week what i would   like to see is any continued pullback i'm only  interested in short positions if we start to get   hawkish fomc and we see gold breaking down we get  that initial move to the downside i'm going to be   looking at initiating shorts down towards the next  kiev supports the downside target set at 1751.29  

next is silver now XAGUSD as a market is  structured to the upside still and we're forming   this kind of ball flag so as i said this sets us  up with a fairly nice scenario where we can wait   for fmc on wednesday and depending on which way  the dollar breaks and we start to see whether   XAUUSD breaks to the downside as we just looked  at or if XAGUSD breaks to the upside like this and   then starts to pull back on fomc i will be looking  at initiating longs up towards the next care   of resistance the upside at the 25.31 so again  because of fomc on wednesday i would rather be   reactive than predictive in gold and silver next  week and just remember when you have a week like   next week with so many different news events even  if you only take one trade or you don't trade at   all there's nothing wrong with that because there  will be more weeks after that where the picture is   more clear-cut and you don't have as much event  risk so you don't have to trade lots and lots of   pairs every single week patience picking the best  pairs and being reactive next week in my opinion   is the best trading plan and finally we have  bitcoin bitcoin is a market that we've been   looking for a correction and further advances  we did pull back and we took out the minor key   air resistance and support here at 57 867 which  i had on previously and we bounced almost to the   pit from this level so very simply put going into  next week i am now looking for further advances   in bitcoin any brake higher will be viewed as an  opportunity to start to look for bullish setups   into the next gear resistance and target set at  the 67516 so that is it from me for this week guys   tons going on next week with fomc three interest  rate decisions in fact and other economic events   next week could end up being a very very  tough week if you get involved in too many   pairs or you get involved taking too much risk  i personally like the plan of eurofrank pound   frank opportunities primarily before wednesday  and then from wednesday onwards being reactive   in those dollar pairs either to the upside or  the downside as opposed to being predictive   and trying to guess what the outcome of fomc will  be so as always i hope you enjoyed this video if   you did please let me know by liking sharing and  subscribing a big thank you to everybody who does   that on a regular basis and a big thank you to  everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far   i want to wish you all a fantastic weekend  and i want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely you

2021-10-31 16:58

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