Trade Brief for Wednesday May 15 2019, Micro Emini, Order Flow, Price action, Emini, Crude Oil, Nasd
All, right traitors my name is Dee Debbie Casto and in this video I'm going to prepare. Myself and every way I can think of have all my levels drop drawled, up and so. No matter what happens I'm, prepared. Alright, whichever way the market might move tomorrow or later on this evening now, I'm currently doing this on Tuesday, the 14th, of May 2019. It's. About 20 minutes after 5 p.m. Eastern. Time and. Let's. Escape, from, this, PowerPoint. And. We'll go right to the news now and again I'm looking at, Wednesday's. May the 15th snooze, and we. Have quite a bit of news tomorrow in, MBA. Mortgage, applications, at 7 a.m. Eastern Time a red. Star news retail. Sales at 8:30, Empire. State manufacturing survey. At 8:32 to news events at 8:30 there we. Have another red star news at 9:15, industrial, production. Lanta, fed business inflation, expectations. At 10 as well, three, different news events at 10 here so Atlanta. Bed business. Expectations. The business inventories, housing. Markets so I, might. See some volatility around there because there's so many of them and then. If a trading crude oil we have the inventories, come out on Wednesday at 10:30 as usual and then, Treasury, international, capital at 4 p.m. now, I haven't got my alarm clock set, for, each one of these events so five minutes before the event comes out I'll be warned, it's coming and I, also have it marked on my charts, that, said let's move to the crude oil and, let's. Look. At the volume for, the day and we. Had almost a means contracts. Traded yesterday, so we're down some one from yesterday but still this is a pretty good volume for the crude. 729. Thousand, contracts traded today, and. 175,000, contracts traded in the O seven contract that makes the contract month out and then, you can see the preceding ones that out as they go there all, right that said. Let. Me pause for just a moment, well. Look at the monthly now and. We. See we're trading in the previous month we. See we went down to test the loaves of the previous month and buyers, brought it back up into the end into the middle. Up into the middle of the previous month's range and we've, not even got out of the the body of the previous candle on the highs here so as we made the highs. Momentum. Is waning, on buying there's somewhat some, selling momentum coming in and, we. Are where. We are here we do go up and test this swing low here which, was the support level and turned into a resistance, level somewhere. That. Let's. Look at the weekly mail and it. Just a little more. Structure. Of how it's how. Its structured self inside the monthly candle we see here where we had to push down on the and, it, formed a support level if, that support level become a resistance, level here and, we had a pin bar with the Virgen short and we, sold off and we have a couple, spinning, tops down here but it's a way which it made the candlestick, pattern here. Buyers. Came back in here and then the sold off again buyers came back in again and we're. Trading inside the previous week's range right there we. Tested down inside there a little bit we tested up high, so. It's stuck kind of in a we. See if other two candles it's, just it's just in difference right through there it's not one to go either way now, you know that puts more perspective, after that big move we've seen yesterday on the downside, we'll. Go back to the daily here now and we see, the. Big move that we had were moved, up and tried to test these highs and so back off and then. It really sold off big-time but. It never like I said yesterday in the previous we're, not out of the woods yet we're still inside this consolidation. Area. So, the day buyers, came right back in again and then it's sold back off again and it really was just not, conducive. You, know an area to take a trade in far as I'm concerned because. You. Can get whipsawed and crude real bad people's, you, know anybody tried it for a while knows they can really get you in situations, that's, why I prefer. To wait till it gets to the extremes like up here near these highs I'd, be interested in taking trade possibly. Up here near these hives right here well we had all these long wicks up in, the top of those wicks perhaps, I possibly, would look for trade if I, see the Momentum's, my side and the tempo is you know picked up right, right. In there if it, T retest these loaves down here especially around 6000 for as an, area where I'd also look for possible trade as well down in that let area so, that's what I'm looking at in the crude now as far as trades, today again, it, wasn't in an area that I would really of cared.
For Now when, it reinterred, back down here and retared tried to retest yesterday's, low a day let's. See what happened there on, that. And. Tried, to retest, the, low a day that. Happened earlier this morning and. It really, was. Down. In that area all along you see it. Get. Pulled back and. Consolidated. For a while it. Took another run it's a yesterday's, low and never even got to the parlor a day so, you know I never got no confirmation on this timeframe maybe on one of the others there's something you could have picked it up but, I would. Passed on this this long here because you. Know crude oil should have at least tested. The, prior, you know yeah that's a swing low from yesterday and it didn't, even have them to do that now, I know we got a big move up but, again we're moving right back up in that consolidation, area again and you can get whipped salt in there and. It can wreak havoc with your account. And. I'm talking I mean you know you see things worked out today but I'm talking over a series of trades and you got to be in this for the long run not just for this, trade to the next trade you're, not just you know it's. Got to be done over a series of trades all, right that's what I see on the crude oil let's move to the es now. And. We're. Looking at the monthly we look at the volume on the es here real quick as a million. Seven hundred thousand. Contracts, a little over that sold today almost me an eight so. We're, looking at the monthly here and we see where price, went. Up and, everybody, talking about to China and this is the reason it sold off and yeah maybe. You. Know maybe it was you know I don't know. But. One. Good reason is another but I believe it's sold all because went up here and hit these highs and. Sellers. Came back in they didn't want to push it no higher, now. We might have over that news got a little more dramatic move, down but, I believe it was gonna move down anyway. So, we retested, it now we're in we, retested. The lows of the previous months and buyers. Have come back in and pushed it back up again so let's look at a weekly now and see. How it structured itself and there you see with these highs that happened back in October of. 2018. And. September. Of 2018. And we, tested those levels, and we, got the Verge's short and it's. Sold off now. I said the I said, yesterday you know of. Course it made some new lows there from. Yes this, is weekly, I gotta go back to a daily to say what I'm gonna say there but it, is it sold off and buyers came back in today and pushed it back up into this area here but, you can see on the weekly we're still in, a downtrend, girls we got lower lows and lower highs. All. Right, on. The daily I said. Yesterday you know I'm you know I for. Somebody that took a weekly, it's a weekly chart somebody took a weekly call, options, up here. Today. With a bit yesterday was a day I said you know it give you a gift yesterday, all that, volatility. Added. Into it to price the option so. I would have exited my options, right here or at least sold 2/3 of them right, there on that myself. Now. Right. Now what's doing it's bought back up into, today. Up in the air but you see it sold back off again so, even though we had this nice move up today it. It, was. Kind of half-hearted because, you know so back off a third or more of what it the. Range it did today it's come back down somewhat, and momentum. On buying, is this nowhere to be seen on the daily here. And. Let me look on a entered, a timeframe here and we. Can see here when it I, don't have the day breaks on here but let's, see so. Right in here was yesterday's. Move down and then the days move up right here on these, last two or three candles, right here so, 2300. Hours. And. Then 10 o'clock so right through there we started with a new day and I moved up on the last three candles, so, down in here it was telling you that we had divergence, long down here this, is what's giving indication, that, would probably lease it leave. Really pull back somewhat, but, you, know before continues, to move down or it may be continuing. One up I have no idea, I'm just reading. What the Momentum's, telling me here in the candlestick patterns. You. Can see here we had a really weak momentum down here to verges long kept getting weaker every time the, sellers tried to push it down into that area and the, de buyers did bring it back up again so, clear. Signal that the sellers, were fading. And the buyers were coming in here. We, had divergence long also, on this timeframe so I'm just getting faster, and faster takes, less time to make candlestick, and. Here we have the daybreak and here we see where it move. Down that, down just a little and. We see we're punched down here yesterday. And, pulled back and then a tree pull bike down here and made, a divergence, long down near the end of the day right there so, everything, this morning was telling you to look for Long's now.
You Know it could you know it could have been wrong but you, know that's what the odds are that was gonna be it was gonna be Long's only, now, when do you get out well right up here we've seen where. The momentum on sell our buying was fading up in this area right here we got I think off the candlestick short with. Momentum, was fading, momentum, when, we got to sell off then. And. We look at the another. Entered a time frame we're starting get down in the weeds now it's really getting fast and we, see we had divergence. Short on this time frame to see if it was an equal high. I believe. This high was. Fifty. Three three, quarters and this high was fifty, three and a half so. It didn't quite make. A double, top or a equal. Hi there it missed it by tech and then, momentum, was, it was really weak and engulfing. Candlestick so this would have told you to look for selling opportunities, as well right. There and then we'll go down to one of my own confirmation. Charts, and any. Chart can be a confirmation chart, but I call, these because of the way I've got the the. Prior. Hot day the high day and stuff set up on here in the pivot points and so forth. We, see right on this time frame here as we moving up into this area, we, had several you know I would, have probably been you know looking for, and I'd have been looking for a place to get out and I would have been getting out right in here not up here because, I was already seeing weakness, right through here now if I was wanting to you know get out my lungs would go short then well. Then I would have had a, loss. Right here how, would I had a loss right here and I what I had a loss right here I had three losses in a row if. I'd have been trying to get out of this situation I. Mean, I get out but get in now, getting, out I'd have probably been out right here so I'd have been in down. Well not there I've been here on the open, right in here's what I got in at and I got in right well just say I got in before this but just to keep the numbers even. See. I'd, been in right maybe tick lower. 28:23. And I got out at. 28. Let's. Make it a little lower 28:46. So, something else can do the math on that that's that's what I tried. Of how. I have treated it all right let's. Move on to the. Tenure, note now, and. We're. Looking at the monthly well look at the volume again we had a million two hundred two. Hundred thousand, a little oval contracts, traded in the.
Five-year Note we had around seven. Hundred and seventy eight thousand contracts traded all. Right get that up and put that out of the way we look at there at the monthly and, again. It hasn't changed much but we have pushed back up into an area where sellers. Had control before so. You. Know there, is still an area up in here where the, buyers, completely, lost control sellers, took control and, and. We had these long wicks down here where buyers lost, control and sellers. Lost control and buyers took it so. But as they tried to push it back up into this area here they. Started to wane and you can see even some buying pressure came in on the momentum indicator on the monthly here. We. Look at the weekly now and we. Can see where we bottomed out here with a nice pin. Bar and nice. Momentum. Is signaled to go long but. It you know see here we had and I got a sort, of a spinning, spinning top and it you can see just went up has had up through year-olds weekly and, as we push by up into this area here it's, it's waned you know it's this is an area where they felt before and they're, hesitant to keep going up into that area it, appears. We. Look up the daily here now and, I. Could see on the daily. Yesterday. That we had to move up and so back off but now we're trading inside, the. Previous, day's. Wick. Area now, this is where the buyers were coming back up into that area there and trying to try to move, it up now they're not moving up with the same momentum they had yesterday, well. That well I guess a little bit more momentum on that but I know that just, watching yesterday it moved up rather. Cleanly. And the day that's not doing it so cleanly, let's, go let me go to inter day here and take a look here and see how it. Reacted. Up in here and, this. Gives me a little more clearer signal what's. Going on. You. Know once we're getting up into this area here we're sellers took control in a day they're. Just they're. Just no buyers or not having any luck. With it though I do see buying momentum, coming in on that, so. Let, me go on down, and. Alright. I'd. Be watching me, go back to another one here let's go to this one here, I'd. Be watching to see how. A price, starts to move back up again I want to see how. Well job they're doing pushing. It up into these area up into here with sellers, took control before all. Right you see the long wicks and stuff over here long. Wick here and everything if. Price starts, to push down you. Know I would watch to see how price reacts around these lows around these swing lows over here and so forth to, see if you get a pullback to sell if it's gonna move back down lower because if it moves back down into this area here that's. Gonna make another. Wick. Or a lot candlestick. Pattern on the daily form up showing. Weakness and, on. The buying part so, we should get a move back down so, in that case I'll be looking for a pullback, to sell if it, moves down in that area alright. Paired my cellphones in the 10-year note for tomorrow I'm ready to go on that let's. Go to this, euro currency, now. I don't show the euro currency it always loses the volume time I get around to you cuz the markets closed at the moment but. They being around around I think right around 156,000, contracts, means, relatively. Speaking the of the other markets but I just went over is, this is a very thin market, they're very thinly traded, alright, that said, we. See on the monthly where. We sold off we. Got a downtrend, established, here because we got lower lows and lower highs I'm. Not sure we got a lower low here. 55. And. 65. So just yeah so, we're in the down trim but it's a candlestick patterns, and now they're, forming up here they're forming spinning tops it. Just didn't say no gussto, on selling, they no gussto I'm buying it, just kind of you know just not going anywhere so, that's what I see on this I don't know why I'm down in an area where price held it before and reversed if I, look off to the left here we. Go to the weekly we see these swing lows that, were made over here on the weekly on. More. In March of 2017. Price. Went down and hit those lows. Right. There. And. Buyers. Came back in sellers. Tried once more and, failed and buyers came back in but. They're very reluctant, to take place any higher because we're in a downtrend, there's no. Energy coming in saying hey I believe that you know there's enough people believing we're gonna bring, this market back up again at the moment so, I'd watch to see my let's, go to a daily.
Let's. Go to weekly, you. Know you see you're on the weekly where it's pushed down and, we'll. Squeeze, it in here here's some weekly swing lows maybe back in March of 2017. And, we. See we're sellers lost. Control and buyers took control but. It was one up in here we performed a wick. Wick. Here it came back down to sellers head control him, buyers, pushed the back up into that wick area reluctantly. And then. Were forming a hammer on this week's and. We still got Wednesday, Thursday Friday three more days left in this, month. I'm buying his way is, waning it's starting to get less. Alright. We. Go to the daily here now and we can see how. Price has moved up into this area here where the sellers took control before and each, time they have sellers, took control I'll control once more now. That's what it give you a good indication and I'm sure I said yesterday if, I had to get in this market I'd be in it to sell I'd, rather wait till it got up here and retested, these highs to. Look for a trade or back down here near the low low. Put in here. On. One. Point one two two two zero, there. I'm, on a Mista - but you get the drift and. Right. In that area right there that's where I start to look for a trade and most, likely I want, to see I'm a further, extension to the downside I would think that's a biased, there, on it but if, I would see confirmation, I look for pullback to sell and my, target would be at least down. Here - this monthly swing, swing, low here and see if it simply, get a test of that level there alright. That's what a ceilings 6e let's go to the gold. And. Again the gold just, to submit. Ain't seen my video before we're. In a five-year. Consolidation. Area, it's. It's contracting, range, we're forming a bit of a, wedge here. We. The higher probability trades, again with it like any other market, no. Matter what timeframe you look at the. Higher percentage. Trades, will be at the extremes of the range so. Up here near these highs down.
Here Near these loaves or is, it see if this thing continues to, contract and. Follow. These trend lines here, of, contraction. You, could possibly look for a trade around those levels there currently. We're smack dab in, the middle of this big, long, it's all the ocean area this lasted over five years, alright. Let's. Go to the weekly if. We look at the weekly there, was some trades inside, there you know there was a trade I took your awhile back on, this diverges short was this pin bar and stuff, as soon as I seen. You. Know this was the end of it for me I got out writing on that day right there and then, it did continue to move down into every test the swing low here and pull. Back it's basically. Stagnated. Right through here we've had a couple temps, over, here for. Sellers to coming in buyers brought it right back up again and and the, higher probability trades at that point would have been to buy but. Again it just isn't moving it's it's just not giving their range expansion we. Go to the daily here and we. See we got some range expansion yesterday. On. The daily and again. If you'd have been buying an option and you and you times, it out right you, know. I'd. Have been paid off this day right here it's been you know at least the next morning when I see them working on the where I'd, have been out of it because of what I know on the monthly chart and the weekly chart and so forth, you, know this thing could go any direction at this point so, I you know you just get out right there all. Right that. Said I well I believe we covered it all day and all. Where. I'm also doing, the yeah. I should have mentioned it during the yes I'm, still working on that, micro. Yes. And I'm. Finding it flows pretty well even, with the, what's. The bit with the e-mini S&P so. I'll, try. To get some maybe some trades in the show on that or something and but. I'm still working on overall, trade plan but it looks like it's gonna be pretty close to what I do with the regular. Immunity has to be now so if you have any questions, just, email is, in the description under. The video here, and trade, well out there.