Future of Cyprus - Post Cold War DOCUMENTARY
[Music] the Cypress problem is notoriously divided along ethnic lines and after 55 years of failed negotiations trying to solve this Schism its insular dispute is considered one of the most intractable conflicts in the world according to the sociologist Lou churg an intractable conflict is protracted involves violence demands great investment by the involved parties and is perceived as unsolvable the conflict in Cyprus covers the first three elements but whether the fourth is applicable is uncertain as people both in Cyprus and abroad still debate whether the Island's ethnic divisions are truly unsolvable in this continuing episode of our series on Modern Affairs we will see how things stand today on the island and try to predict its future in 1945 a huge wave of euphoria erupted across the sunny Mediterranean island of Cyprus the country had been under British Administration since 1878 but the Greeks and Turks of the island saw the end of the second World War as an opportunity to finally seek to pursue their own Destinies the problem was that there were two conflicting National goals which were fundamentally incompatible with one another Greek cypriots aspired to enosis meaning the unification of Cyprus with the Greek mainland while Turkish ciates envisioned takim the partition of Cyprus between Greece and Turkey in April 1955 after a string of multiple failed diplomatic efforts by the Greek cypriate Community led by Archbishop marcario a Greek cypret paramilitary organization known as ethniki oranos Kion aiston AKA The National Organization of cypriate Fighters or aoka started an armed struggle against the British with the aim of achieving enosis through Force of Arms 3 years later a cast of social Elites within the Turkish cypriate Community funded and formed their own paramilitary organization The Turk mavet teskilati aka the Turkish resistance organization or TMT in order to counter aoka after five long years of Bloodshed the environment in Cypress was so tense that it had spilled over into its two communities respective mother countries creating an unprecedented Rift between Greece and Turkey in order to prevent an allout war between two NATO members in the midst of the Cold War the United States took an active role in the mediation of negotiations between turkey and Greece in February 1959 an uneasy compromise was achieved between Greece and Turkey although Greek cypriots and Turkish cetes were not active parties in the negotiations the 1959 Zurich London agreements contained the three treaties the first was the Treaty of establishment which envisioned the creation of a Nation co-run by both ethnic communities in harmonious partnership the Republic of Cyprus a unitary state where Greek cypriots and Turkish cypriots had political equality in conjunction with this Cyprus would seed two of its territories as Sovereign British soil to be used as military bases moreover the union of the island with Greece or the partition of part of its territories to Turkey was strictly forbidden the second treaty was the Treaty of guarantees wherein the UK Greece and Turkey would guarantee the independence sovereignty and territorial Integrity of Cyprus in case of a domestic or external threat the three guarantors were permitted to act either together or as individuals Article 4 the third and final treaty was the Treaty of alliance in which Greece and Turkey were to send contingents of 9950 and 650 troops respectively to the island unfortunately just 3 years after the implementation of the three treaties Strife between the two communities broke out on the island in 1963 Turkish cypriots withdrew from every single branch and institution of the Republic of Cyprus and the island experienced its first deao division the authoritarian behavior of the then cypriate president Archbishop marcario and the malignant effect of nationalist elements in the Turkish cic Community were the main causes of the creation of Turkish cypriate enclaves negotiations between the two communities started in 1967 under the offices of the United Nations although the government of the Cypress Republic was still internationally recognized as a legitimate regime even without the participation of the Turkish cypriots the Ascension of a military hun government in Mainland Gree gree put the Cypress dispute in uncharted waters on July 15 1974 a coup encouraged and sponsored by the Greek military hun against Archbishop Marios meant to initiate enosis enable turkey to invade the island 5 Days Later by giving it a pretext of defending the Turkish cypriots 35% of cypriot territory is still occupied by turkey until this day as a result of the Turkish invasion of 1974 the deao division of the island created a new status quo which both communities considered to be unacceptable the tragic events of the' 70s turned hundreds of thousands of people into refugees since then the people of Cyprus have been living in two ethnically homogeneous territories whose economies have faced tremendous challenges in 1977 these two communities led by their leaders Archbishop aario and r denash respectively reached a highlevel agreement which constituted the basis for the comprehensive settlement of the Cypress problem the two leaders agreed to form a bonal meaning two federal states Bic communal meaning co-run by the two communities Federation in which the ciet nation would be de facto split between two constituent States one Greek and one Turkish which would effectively be their own Federated States since 197 7 all rounds of negotiations have been on the basis of bonal Bic communal Federation but no final agreement was reached probably the greatest moment in Cypress negotiations was the 2004 Anan plan referendum which entailed a bonal Bic communal Federation with a presidential Council some troop withdrawals and some land readjustments as well as some return of internally displaced persons 76% of Greek cypriots reject the plan fearing Economic Consequences and thinking they would lose some of their power due to power sharing and 65% of Turkish cypriots approved it as they had been facing repression by the government and turkey and hoped for EU Ascension and reunification to help them recuperate from these crises during the last round of negotiations in 2017 the so-called gueris framework was presented before the two communities Turkey Greece and the UK the framework envisages territorial adjustments in favor of the Greek cypriots to about 72% of the island there's also the issue of equivalent treatment of Greek and Turkish Nationals in terms of citizenship acquisition and Naturalization mostly because Greek cypriots are afraid of Turkish settlement in the north there is also the issue of effective participation of both communities in all federal branches with at least one vote of each community in all decisions we also have two property regimes for the two constituent States in terms of Housing and property development as well as handling post 1974 land ownership changes finally there is meant to be a new system of security replacing the Treaty of guarantees with a swift but not complete withdrawal of Turkish troops from the island a complete withdrawal of foreign troops would be discussed at a high level Summit between the heads of state of the three guarantors and the two leaders of the cypriate communities although all parties initially understood and accepted the framework there was a different interpretation of specific chapters within it such as the parts regarding security having in mind the communal grievances issues of the two communities Greek cypriots and Greece demanded the Swift and complete withdrawal of all Turkish troops and the abolishment of the Treaty of guarantees while Turkish cypriots and turkey preferred the review of the Treaty of guarantees 50 15 years after the implementation of the settlement and a slow partial withdrawal of Turkish troops after the failure of the last round of negotiations in 2017 the relations between the two communities are at an all-time low no diplomatic efforts are being initiated and the International Community has turned its focus to other asymmetrical and symmetrical threats and challenges such as the co 19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the Turkish CPR Community pessimism is more prevalent than ever the international isolation of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus or trnc has always been a major obstacle to its economic prosperity and development meanwhile the Greek dominated Republic of Cyprus still enjoys being a member of the UN and the EU the Turkish Cate economy is heavily dependent on Turkey all of its exports and imports have to pass through turkey due to the roc's Embargo on the Northern third of the island due to this Turkish cypriotes have sought alternative solutions to increase their economic presence on the international stage all of which are supported by turkey on November 10 2022 the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was granted Observer status in the organization of Turkish States or OTC an organization in which many Central Asian Nations cooperate in many areas of common interest such as trade counterterrorism education and tourism although all members of OTC except turkey still do not recognize trnc the European commission condemned this action nevertheless according to the trnc ministry of Commerce it is expected within the next 5 years that the Turkish cypriate Chamber of Commerce will have full cooperation with all of the Chamber of commer of the OTC member states despite the European Union's refusal to acknowledge the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus the two polities are deao trade Partners the areas of Cyprus controlled by Turkish cypriotes are considered by the EU as part of The Roc which means they are EU territory after the Ascension of Cyprus to the EU and the rejection of the Anan plan in April 2004 the EU commission agreed to implement the Greenline regulation which envisages the economic development of Turkish cypriots without recognizing the trnc through Aid packages ensuring Crossings for trade are run smoothly and trade on the basis of WTO rules bearing in mind the recent provocative Ascension of trnc into the organization of Turk States voices in the EU have been raised to stop implementing the Greenline regulation putting pressure on the Turkish cypriate leadership in order to achieve a comprehensive overview of the Turkish cypriate community and its future one must understand the fundamentally secular character of the nation the Turkish ciate Community is considered one of the most secular Muslim majority communities in the world the main reason behind this is the rise of the fiercely secularist ideology of chemism in Turkey in the early 1920s most members of the Turkish Cate Elites in that era were educated in Turkey moreover the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 was ordered by the k government of bulent ET ofit however after the rise of Reb T erdogan to power in Turkey in 2003 things in Cyprus have shifted tremendously especially in the last decade since 2010 all governments led by erdogan have pressured the Turkish cypriots to implement reforms for the islamization of trnc almost 300 mosques and Islamic schools have been built in trnc since 2013 moreover the presence of Turkish settlers in the trnc plays a significant role as well 35% of the trnc population were born in Turkey while 48% are of mixed Turkish cypriate and Mainland Turkish descent although politically Turkish settlers have shown that they do not belong to a certain political party or ideology in the trnc the majority of them reject the idea of the reunification of Cyprus in a bonal federation with the Greek cots the latest presidential election in the trnc in 2020 is indicative of how Turkish cypriots feel about a federal settlement on the bonal Bic communal model ersen Tatar a nationalist who firmly rejects any federal settlement won the election with 52% and since his election no major diplomatic effort by the UN has achieved any success with president erdogan in Mainland turkey wielding almost complete control of national elements in the Turkish separate political leadership it is very hard to believe that a new negotiation is going to start under the opes of the UN for a federal settlement on the other side of the barbed wire Greek cypriots are also feeling less optimistic about the comprehensive settlement of the Cypress dispute according to a recent poll in November 2022 while 36% of Greek cypriots still believe in the bonal Bic communal Federation 16% were in support of a two-state solution an increase from 4% in the previous year the difference between the two models is that the two-state solution would entail a full partition of the island for the trnc to become its own country with loss of Rights for both communities on the other side whereas in the bonal federal model there would be guarantees for such rights as best as possible given the post Invasion status quo one of the major concerns within the Greek cypriate Community towards a federation is the possible dependence of the Turkish cypriots on the Greek cypriate economy despite an economic crisis in 2013 and the impact of coid 19 unemployment has decreased to 6.1% from 16% in 2013 in the Greek cypriate Community the Turkish cypriate banking sector is 10 times smaller than its Greek ciet equivalent and turkey almost completely controls the Turkish ciet economy these facts are a source of major concern for economic analysts in the Greek cypriate community and raise doubt about whether a federal settlement is viable the Greek Orthodox Church of Cyprus has also played a pivotal role in the internal affairs of the Greek cypriots the active role of the Church of Cyprus traces its roots back to the 1930s when the Education Act was put in place in Cyprus this act envisaged that the Church of Cyprus should have complete authority over the educ education of Greek cypriots while Muslim authorities were to be given authority over the education of Turkish cypriotes the Nationalist Tendencies of the church could be seen back in 1960 when Archbishop macaros was in power since then nationalist interpretation of history in Greek cypriate schools is present which is often fueled by the head of the church the refugee crisis in 2015 and the economic crisis in 2013 have led to the rise of nationalist forces in Cyprus these political factions are fervent opponents of unification with the Turkish portion of the island and they are often supported by a large chunk of the Greek C Elites who control most mass media in the Republic after the breakdown of negotiations in 2017 nationalist Elites have become dominant on the Greek cypriate political stage which can easily be seen in the results of the last presidential election in February 2013 Nikos Christo toas an independent candidate supported by Greek cypriate nationalist political parties which support ideas such as unitary state or even enosis won the election in the runoff with 51.9% of the vote against Andreas maranis who was supported by the left-wing Federalist akel although Christo Dulas supported Federation on the campaign Trail it is expected that for the next 5 years the political parties which supported him will be a burden for the Revival of a new negotiation in process of all the factions with an interest in cyprus's future the Republic of Turkey is the party with the greatest responsibility for it has the influence to alter the geopolitical demographic economic and social realities in Cyprus depending on its national interests these interests change from time to time and they are mainly affected by other major foreign policy Affairs such as the gree turkey relations the aspirations of turkey for EU Ascension and NATO turkey relations Cyprus emerged as a geopolitical hotspot for turkey back in 1955 during the armed struggle of the Greek cypriots against British rule the fear of enosis was a redline for turkey as this would have made Greece the dominant power in the Eastern Mediterranean region the aim of the Turkish foreign policy viav Cyprus was the creation of two ethnically distinct territories on the island and the invasion of turkey in 1974 was considered by the Turkish leadership for many years as the final settlement of the Cypress problem turkey's influence over the island would be challenged in 1990 when the Republic of Cyprus applied for membership in the EU an organization that turkey also wanted to be a member of the EU is by far turkey's biggest Import and Export partner and most of its members are also Partners in NATO thus cyprus's Ascension to the EU and the right to veto every decision of the EU Council would put turkey's asens procedure to the EU and NATO turkey relations into Jeopardy after a tumultuous decade full of serious incidents that could have led to an allout war between Greece Cyprus and turkey Turkish leadership finally came to understand that the Cypress problem had not ended in 1974 and serious concessions should be given to Greek cypriotes in order to win turkey Goodwill on the national stage Reb T erdogan Who Rose to power in 2003 estimated that turkey's EU aspirations would pass only via a comprehensive Federal settlement in Cyprus after the rejection of the Anan plan referenda in Cyprus in 2004 and the constant objection of certain EU member states towards turkey's Ascension turkey's interest in joining the European Union has begun to fade away in recent years today Turkish foreign policy goals are completely different as the past decade has brought seismic internal developments in the country protest at gizy Park in 2013 and the failed coup against President erdogan in 2016 made the Turkish government more authoritarian human rights violations against minorities women and the media have become more common while new Nationalist and revisionist goals in foreign policy are taking the place of diplomatically logical agendas the blue Homeland Doctrine is the strategy that guides present Turkish foreign policy and encapsulates the neo-ottoman aspirations turkey has long held in regaining dominance in the Eastern Mediterranean and the aan Sea this Doctrine is not only considered unacceptable by the EU Greece and the Republic of Cyprus but also by other countries of the region such as Israel turkey Israel relations were at an all-time low during the last decade as a result of the Gaza flotilla raid in 2010 and conflicting views on how Maritime boundaries should be delimited furthermore the discovery of hydrocarbons by the GRE Greek cypriotes in 2003 led to the strengthening of Israel Roc relations in 2011 the two countries signed a memorandum for the delimitation of their exclusive economic zone and similar memoranda have since been signed between Cyprus Egypt Greece and Lebanon today turkey is still the only country in the region that does not have an exclusive economic zone agreement with any of its neighbors the different perceptions of security guarantees for the island and turkey by the involved parties mostly in terms of troops on the island and right to intervene are the most significant obstacle to a comprehensive Federal settlement in the Cypress problem as long as there is no open dialogue between the parties the realities on the island will become gradually permanent but the chapter on Security will remain open even if the Turkish or Greek cypriots suddenly experience a massive attitude shift in their policies towards the other security would be a huge challenge for the parties to overcome for example if Greek cypriots accept a two-state solution a new exclusive economic zone would have to be created for the northern Turkish State as a result of a negotiation with the southern Greek state or after both countries appeal to the international court of justice if one of the two states rejects both ideas and starts drilling or surveying unilaterally in the Eastern Mediterranean SE how would security be safeguarded bearing in mind there will be no un peacekeeping force on the island now if there is a federal settlement in Cyprus a serious challenge would be the formation of a federal foreign and defense policy Israel Cypress relations are at the best state since the beginning of their diplomatic relations and the agreement signed between Israel and Cyprus in 2011 for the delimitation of EZ would still be in place as it is legally binding while Greek cypriotes would definitely accept the agreement Turkish cypriots and more vocally turkey would regard the agreement as void as it seriously hurts their interests and the E overlaps disputed Waters the major differences in security and sovereignty are the reason why the majority of both Turkish and Greek cypriots today prefer the Pres status quo over any settlement federal or not at the same time both communities paradoxically understand that the present status quo is not viable the question of sovereignty remains an obstacle for Turkish cypriots while the presence of Turkish contingents and settlers stand as a continued threat to the security of Greek cypriots at the same time turkey cannot have a normal relationship with both EU and NATO as the Republic of Cyprus would veto any attempt for upgraded EU turkey relations over the years the power of the crisis has shown to have a positive effect on the Cypress negotiations and Greece turkey relations during the catastrophic earthquakes in 1999 in turkey and Greece diplomatic relations were strengthened leading to the Anan plan referendums in Cyprus in 2004 furthermore the Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened again the chapter of security in the Eastern Mediterranean region if there is an asymmetrical threat in the future it is expected that civil Societies in both communities that support a federal settlement would mobilize putting pressure on the political leadership of the island if mobilization takes place and these security convergence is all right the the Cypress problem can be solved by both communities as well as Greece and Turkey if suspicion persists between Greece turkey and the two communities and we also have the discussions remain amongst political Elites all it takes is apathy or nationalism to force the Cypress problem into a Purgatory of quagmires all it takes is for cypriots to make their own history but not as they please under self-directed circumstances but under already existing circumstances more videos on Modern Affairs are on the way so make sure you have subscribed and pressed the Bell button join the ranks of patrons and YouTube members via the link in the description to learn more about our schedule get early access to our videos join our private Discord and much more please consider liking commenting and sharing it helps immensely this is the Cold War Channel and remember history is Shades of Gray and rarely black and white
2023-11-15 19:27
