The mystery of Technical Analysis | At the Table by Urban Forex #18

The mystery of Technical Analysis | At the Table by Urban Forex #18

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all right good evening everybody my name is  Navin Prithyani welcome to another episode of   at the table by urban forex today here with  me i have uh Lucas tuning in from Malaysia   hey everyone how's it going hey hello hello uh we  have Armand tuning in from Thailand hello everyone   what's up what's up what's up and we have  Ian all the way from Australia hey everybody   hey hey all right all right so today's topic is  uh about you know not just my experience but i   also would be curious to know what are your  experiences when it comes to technical analysis so   you know in the webinar i'll be speaking a lot  about my experiences but for this podcast i'm   curious on what are your experiences for technical  analysis and how has it evolved over time so um   lucas you want to you know take a ticket from  here yeah so yeah to me technical analysis   means being able to understand price action  and that piece is not just about you know   drawing lines you know putting on indicators  stuff like that it takes a lot of time and   a lot of hard work to actually try and master the  art of you know understanding price action right   right and you know it's funny you talk about that  because when you when you say drawing simple lines   and stuff and you know i spent years doing that  you know back in the day when i when i started   uh with technical analysis and it's i think it's a  journey that everyone takes sort of like it's like   well where do you begin well let's start with the  easiest thing and well my neighbor or my dog or   someone has taught me that just connect these  lows and you'll have a nice horizontal line and   there you have it that's trading and then my  phone i can do this it's like i can draw a line   why not you know yeah very fascinating very very  fascinating yeah i guess the difference now is   if i listen to my neighbor and do that  i think you will be you know on my ass   very correct well well it's it's many many years down the line  now so uh you should know how to you should be   way way more premium or senior to that type of  knowledge now um okay well what about you Ian   what's your um take on technical analysis now  versus the past well not to piggyback on the   same thing but i mean i i think that's where  it starts you know when i started just like   everybody else it came down to just drawing  not just lines but shapes on the chart and i   quickly learned i think over time because you're  always learning i'm still learning to this day   um it's it's a it's a game of learning essentially  and then as you learn you put more together like   so technical analysis doesn't necessarily have  to be just lines there's lots of other advanced   things like i know we use correlation and um  there's just other topics that go into technical   analysis um it's a whole story essentially on the  chart putting it all together it's not just like a   channel and stuff it's the whole thing kind of put  together and it's a constant thing that you you   pick up new things almost maybe they were there  the whole time and you just missed them but i   mean there always seems to be something new you're  picking up so absolutely absolutely yeah it's it's   i like how you said that uh correlation also falls  under technical analysis and then that's very true   it's it's a much more advanced thing to go into  um but it does come along the lines of technical   analysis uh especially how you look at it because  it could always be argued many things could be   fundamental analysis technical analysis but the  way we go about things will always be technical   okay for the most part yeah and even just  like watching how price moves even just from   a psychological point of view whether it's fast  or slow uh slowing down you know and things like   that that maybe get overlooked sometimes but it's  still all technical ways of looking at the chart   right it's just a little bit different than  again drawing a shape or a pattern or things   like that so there's a lot to it yeah i think  i i guess anything that's not fundamental based   you know should fall underneath technical  analysis right right right right well what about   what is your take on this Armand how do you  you know being around in the industry uh for   quite a long time as well um how would you  say the industry has evolved you know not   just yourself and looking at technical loss how  would you say the entire industry has evolved to   let's say five years ago on how people were  probably looking at technical analysis what was   their main go-to concern versus right now what has  the market evolved to what's the new fashion now   um good question well back in the day it was  oh indicators and and then it was price action   and then technical analysis as a part of price  action and volumes which is also part of technical   technical analysis has started to play a bigger  role now at least in in forex because previously   it was a little bit harder to get uh data for that  in forex um so yeah i think that's at least for me   for me personally that's the that's the main  difference i'm not always looking so much of   what the rest of the industry is doing and to be  honest when i first heard about technical analysis   i thought what's the point because when it was  explained to me what it was it okay this is the   movement of the price right plus volumes and that  volumes i hadn't been exposed yet at that time   so to me okay the movement of the price that's  cool and all but you know give me those lines on   my chart that i can draw like support resistance  trend lines the stuff that Lucas doesn't like now   like give me that and i can do something with  that right and then you explained to me well   actually it's better to read the whole  story um you know use the technical analysis   and and figure out based on what has happened so  on on the history uh figure out what is likely   to happen in the future and i thought okay  using history to you know get an outlook on   the future i like history so that can work for  me and then later on you you also explained um   or you introduced me to volumes and that added  a whole whole other uh thing to it like a huge   thing actually to to make the reading of the story  um more comprehensive right so yeah that's my my   view on it basically what the industry is really  up to at the moment i'm not too sure yeah um i   don't you know i don't per se maybe we ourselves  have evolved so much that our search queries are   not the same as they used to be obviously yeah  yeah so but it doesn't mean the indicators have   disappeared the trading systems have disappeared  in fact they're bigger than ever before   yeah yeah the desire for the right indicator the  best indicator the indicator that makes money   and the only indicator that makes money it's  um the fascination to still solve the problem   is still there you know that's like the bottom  line right whether we go through technical   analysis fundamental analysis a combination of  both or astrology you know whatever you want to   call it we're trying to solve the rhythm of how  do i predict this christmas tree in front of my   screen that's like green and red lights everywhere  like how do you solve the puzzle yeah so   like that's the whole fun part that is the  fun part and and it's so much fun actually um   but it is not fun during the early learning  processes when you're just trying to do the   same rhythm over and over again and you're  winning some you're losing some you're winning   some you're losing some and there's no growth  anywhere that's the deadly part which is like   let me try it today oh that didn't work let me  try it now oh that didn't work what are you trying   you know that little logic of what are you  trying do you know what you're dealing with   and the average person is i tried they  don't work switch that's also very dangerous   because then you would never learn you know  so it's this it's this concept of oh i don't   want to do fundamental analysis i don't got  time for that i said so much stuff to read   technical analysis i watched a youtube video  the guy says just draw a line from here to here   i can do that i was a pro at  drawing lines in preschool you know you still are i i believe in you now i  draw circles on white boards you know like so um and and the evolution has  come so far um in technical analysis   uh a huge wave of people are still  entering this industry with the idea of   technical analysis is easy to understand because  my brain understands logic and that's where   they're all introduced to the industry of like you  see these green bars green means by red means sell   and even if no one says that verbally to them  the brain automatically deciphers it like that   if it's going up that means it must go up more  if it's going down that means it will go down   more and fast forward you know 10 years of  experience you'll be like if it's green do not buy   if it's red do not sell you know at least in  trading in the forex industry it means almost   the opposite and that takes a while to understand  uh and understand that there are times when you   can do that there are there are times when you  most of the time you're not supposed to do that   exactly so it's it's a it's a very interesting  thing so if we talk about technical analysis as   a whole and uh if i give you a little background  of you know 15 plus years of how long i've been   in this and technical analysis was the whole  thing of there'd be a new indicator and there'd   be so much hype around it now i'm talking about  times when euro usd had like five pips spread   you know when when i say stuff  like that i realized man i'm old so when you can imagine how you know brokers  compete with zero spreads now and i was there   when it was five pip spreads and we were all  like i got the best broker in town you know like   so it was like that um and at that time   it was all about the new indicator the new  this the new that and everyone would dive   into it because social media didn't really  have much information to bombard you with   yeah if there was one person who was bombarding  whatever avenue of information there was then   you would only have that information  and that actually allowed a lot of focus   because you don't have to do one thing and saying  oh that didn't work so let me try this one oh   that didn't work so let me try this one if there's  options you're constantly hopping back in the day   there was less options that were releasing very  seldomly okay now it's support and resistance hey   we're all about support resistance now the whole  wave six months of support resistance non-stop   and then you start to learn the nuisances of  support resistance now it's all about trend lines   then that thing then you know so it starts  evolving evolving and all these indicators start   coming up and you start seeing indicators that you  drop indicators and those indicators come back to   life you know a few years later they're like no  no this indicator with this setting on this time   frame golden it's like genius i why didn't i think  of that so i started getting to that so it is only   when you when you take that knowledge you practice  you play with it and that hunger is is on the   other end of it saying i still haven't cracked  that fundamental information of how do i solve   this yeah and the whole process is but i'd like  to solve this with technical analysis because i   understand technical analysis whether i'm doing  it right or wrong that's a whole different thing   but i at least understand it when it comes to  fundamental stuff and i turn on the news and i   try to understand what the economists are saying  like gibberish it's like i have no idea what the   guy is saying five minutes later another guy comes  on the tv and he's just the complete opposite   the most feels like the guy on the tv doesn't  even know what you know himself is saying oh   yeah yeah it it sounded like college all over  again you know when you go and you have a nice   professor who's never worked in that industry  ever before it's it sounded like that like   constantly constantly constantly um so yeah and  then the market does the opposite thing and then   they just say oh and it looks like the market  reacted in the least expected way correct correct   um to a point where a lot of the analysts i  used to follow started changing their behaviors   by saying so what i'm expecting is prices to  rise from this price all the way to this price   on the contrary if prices decline i expect  them to further decline from here to this price   it's like no hey you're missing the sideways  market you've chosen the top and the bottom   what's left like you just you know i don't  know what you're doing on tv what are you   telling me you're telling me the market  can go up or it can go down no [ __ ]   so that's the luxury of an analyst he can  just come up and say whatever he wants but   as a trader we start to realize we don't  have that luxury we need to pick a side   we need to pick a side and we need to be right  majority of the time and when we are right we   also need to scale it and when we are wrong we  need to find a way to reduce it or scale down   that loop is so deadly it's so deadly that's the  thing that takes time but if i look back and if i   ask you guys uh how even even if i have you guys  you know look back all of you guys listening in   and you think about something simple as  support and resistance has it truly disappeared   no no it's still there has trend lines disappeared  no they they have they're all they they all have   their values at uh you know importance levels  so they're still there and they're still used   um one thing i've noticed actually just thinking  talking about all this from when i started   is that it seems to go in cycles like to me it's  like one thing will be trendy for a bit then the   next thing will be trendy for the next little bit  and so on and so forth and it'll even come right   back around almost like the fashion industry you  know how some certain clothes are hot one year   than you know the next decade but then they'll get  recycled again and it's because people just keep   hopping back and forth and you know when they you  know can't put it all together so you know they'll   just kind of keep going through it that's kind  of what i found you know when you start searching   well i i really don't know how the  world would be in bell bottoms again but   but 80s haircuts will always be the best  it's just too bad i can't have it anymore yeah if they bring haircuts back  i'm not participating because i   that's too late for me now like yeah but there are you know there are cycles  in this at least we know in the markets there   are cycles they're fads there's stuff like this  now if i if i you know if you guys don't mind   i can go deeper into this a little bit if i take  you and i and i say okay all this knowledge and   experience you have gone through imagine it like  buildings okay they're all the different buildings   you go into one building and then you're like  you're exploring the building as much as you can   then you're like i i don't want to live here  you come out of the building you go into the   next building and you start exploring that  building you're like yeah i spent less time   in this building but i don't like it let me try  something else i don't want to stay here now   i put you on a plane and you're over the city  now and you're looking at all the buildings   you have been in okay you're looking at it as a  overview now and you're looking at all the things   that you have been in we can look at oh that  building was nice i remember how i used to   uh play in that building and then i actually let  it go because i didn't like it that building i   made some friends and we were hanging around that  building for a while before i left that building   you have memories you have recollection of each  each thing that you've learned and played with   but when you fly over it is only when you fly over  and a bird's eye view and everything you've done   is when you can start to sit down and  understand but i still haven't found a home yet   and in trading that's the answer is but did  you crack trading yet right it's so it then   when you that's when you start realizing that  it's not about an indicator it's not about uh   the home it's about we don't know what we're  looking for but we think this is what we need   i don't know if that makes sense we're constantly  on this journey of looking for something we   think we need but we have no idea if we need  it or not hence the constant looking into let's   try this building now let's try that building  now but we don't know what we're trying to do   are we trying to settle down are we trying to  build something there what are we trying to do   and if i go take you even further up and  you look at it even from a bird's eye view   what's the goal of trading let's start with  the let's start with basics even more basics   what's the goal of investing make money make  money but what what does the word invest mean   you make money out of nothing you put money into  something and that something makes you money   okay good good so you're not making  money out of nothing because that's a job   you know a job makes money out of nothing  right but when you're making money out of   money on itself that's investing which means  if i put my money here will i get more back   that is a fundamental basis of all money making  machines if i put money somewhere will i make more   you take that into trading trading is a  specialization of that art is saying i want to do   that with percent pristine accuracy but that's the  problem with technical analysis is if you do not   specialize in it then you're messing around with  the concept of investing because you're constantly   saying let me try this i failed let me try  that i felt okay let me try something else   you never specialize if you never specialize it  is safer to be an investor than there it is to   be a trader and that concept took a very long  time to sink in a very very long time to sink   in it's like if you want to be a traitor you  need to specialize you have to be some someone   that can look in the mirror and be like you're one  of the best period yeah if you can't if you if you   can't say that now or you don't have a goal or  desire to say that it is safer to be an investor   it is safer to be an investor you will make more  money it'll be a lot more easier it'll be more   comfortable you might even save a lot of gray  hairs and that's that's for sure that's for sure in general or heras in general there you  go the bathroom will not be clogged anymore yeah so you know does that make sense for  technical analysis so even though technical   analysis is easy the goal of technical analysis  is to solve the investing problem with a little   bit more accuracy if you if you try to solve the  investing problem with a little bit more accuracy   then you can't do it fluff and puff  huff and puff dbdb i don't know what   words to use like you can't do like ggg  like you can't keep it weird you know   you have to be good you know you have to be  good good and that is the underlying basis of   at least it's easy to learn you just have to do  a lot of it yeah that's it it you know it's not   that difficult it's actually very easy to learn  just do a lot of it yeah like reading a story   over and over and over again yes and the more  you do it the more things stick out the more   you do it the more things stick out you just  have to do a lot a lot does that make sense yeah all right all right yeah all right so what  we're gonna do now um as it's uh 8 a.m new york   city time uh here uh i'm in London right now  and it's very cold um so what we're going to do   sorry thoughts and prayers oh yeah yeah yeah  i i i wanted to see a different place and uh   yeah well it's called   so and they're talking about omnicron so  i gotta get back to Dubai before they lock   this place down so so if they do lock it down  then oh London is gonna be very early and cold yeah so um so uh what we're gonna do now is uh  those of you guys who are here live there's a   lot of you guys here live um what we're gonna do  is we're gonna convert this now into a webinar so   you guys can stay on board those of you guys  who are listening in through your podcast   stations um if you want to attend or watch the  recording of the webinar that is about to happen   the link will be in the description that is along  with this podcast so as always again guys uh   thank you so much for listening in uh and for you  guys here on the panel Lucas Armand and Ian it's   always a pleasure to have you guys uh once again  thank you so much you're welcome thank you thanks you

2022-01-09 12:21

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