The Most Likely Outcomes of an AI Future with Emad Mostaque | EP #55
coding is changing dramatically there will be no coder that doesn't use AI as part of their workflow 5G and starlink the dry Kindle for this fire has been set is this more important than 5G buy orders of magnitude is a magnitude there is no kind of pure independent completely rational person because we're not robots so medicine is changing uh dramatically is your doctor AI enhanced low insurance premium lower co-pay that is something across every industry it's going to be happening 10 years out what is a lawyer what is an accountant what is an engineer they are all AI assisted the entire knowledge sector is transformed and it enables you to do whatever you want to do learning should be a place of Positive Growth and joy where's the difference there where's the difference and I think the key thing here is empathy we're in this beautiful home in the Hollywood Hills and A lot's happened in the last six months since we were recording our last podcast and you were on the stage at abundance 360. and I think this is epicenter for a lot of people's concerns right now A transformation potentially in Hollywood you were speaking about that that it's going to change dramatically and I would you say were haven't even seen a small portion of the change yet I think we uh at the foot of the mountain as it were I kind of compare it to being at the iPhone 2g to 3G point and we just got copy and paste we haven't seen what this technology is really capable of yet and it hasn't got everywhere it's like everyone's talking about it but not that many people are using it there was a recent study done um that showed only 17 of people had used chat GPT in the US despite the fact it can do anyone's homework I mean it seems incredibly a small percentage I guess because the community I hang out with everybody's using it but well this is the thing we live in our monocultures but then a third of the world still doesn't have internet right and you think the first incident they get will probably be AI enhanced yeah and then you think about this technology proliferating it's when it becomes Enterprise ready Enterprise adoption company adoption always takes a while but by next year that happens and I think every company everywhere that has anything to do with knowledge work will implement this at scale and that's a crazy thought and when it's embedded in the things you use every day and you don't know it's part of what you're using I think that's the thing technology you don't need to know that it's 5G or this the internet works faster you can watch movies quicker you know in this case you write something in Google Docs now they just rolled it out you can say make this snappier and it will do it automatically technology doesn't need to be there as technology in the front it's all about use cases and the use cases are now maturing and again I think next year is the real takeoff but now everyone's feeling it who has anything to do with it like something is coming in this conversation I want to really think through how this is all affecting every industry and let's start with two industries uh one is journalism and the other is Hollywood which is we're sitting in the midst of this uh one of the concerns I have I know you share it a lot of people do especially with elections coming up in you know 18 months 2024 is what is Truth uh and are we going to enter a post-truth world and you talk about your thoughts on journalism and how AI is impacting it so I think you've seen shifts in journalism over the years uh but we're all familiar with kind of some of the clickbait journalism that we see now um AI can obviously do clickbait better than humans and that's one kind of extreme this whole fake news deep fake kind of stuff that's a real concern and that's why we have authenticity mechanisms now we embed watermarking you know we hunt with GPT zero and other things to identify AI but on the other side of it there's a real challenge coming because AI can also help with truth it can help you do proper analysis and expand out the reasoning for things it can identify biases within so journalism as it stands is caught between two things to get clicks to get ads they went a bit more click bait and they focus on cessationless headlines even if it's with unnamed sources and things on the other hand someone's going to build an AI system AI enhanced system that for any article you read you can find all the background material and that suddenly becomes a source of Truth so it's kind of a pincer movement and journalists and news sources will have to figure out where are you in this how do you compete to provide value yeah are you buzzfeeding on one end which is you know mostly all clicked by it all the time or you're trying to be the New York Times and deliver well research journalism but the entity that competes with the New York Times that will come and you know as it might be the New York Times itself can use AI to enhance great journalism right in any voice do all these things and give fully referenced facts that you can explore the other side is that we're going to trust this technology more and more just like we trust Google Maps just let you trust other things such that it's like why have I got a human doctor without an AI why have I got a journalist who isn't using AI to check everything on their own implicit biases and I think that part is actually quite misunderstood as to something that's coming because again humans plus AI out compete humans without AI I I believe in that and I see that and I I think you know it's interesting in my life and those I know um AI hasn't replaced the things that I've done it hasn't actually even saved me time per se because I'm still spending the same amount of time it's allowed me to do a better job at what I want to do which is the end product yeah well I mean that's because you did a little bit of everything so you've always got you know like that's true I feel I feel every moment of the time creating something for one of my companies well I mean this is an open AI report that was done where they said that between 14 and 50 of tasks will be augmented by AI will be changed by AI because again I think a large part of the focus is on these automated systems the Terminators yeah you know to the Bots whereas realistically the way they say I will come in is to help us with individual tasks rewriting something generating an image making a song adjusting your speech to sound more confident yeah you know and we'll get to the dystopian conversation because I'd like to hear what you think is real versus hype um I think the audience needs to understand what should they truly be concerned about and what shouldn't they I mean that is you know being able to trace back and have a a truth mechanism uh we can talk about what you know elon's looking to build as well on the truth side but it's fascinating when the truth becomes blurry yeah and you know there's not always an objective truth because it depends upon your individual context right yeah and we didn't have the systems to be able to be comprehensive authoritative or up-to-date enough to do that until today so we can actually go to the uh root source of the data and and see is it valid uh maybe it's a blockchain enabled validation mechanism um you know maybe it's got that Authority that authentication maybe it's you know you mentioned Elon Community notes on Twitter that AI enhanced that can pull from various things you know and show the profit so you've got provenance again you've got Authority you have comprehensiveness you have up to dateness the future of Wikipedia is not what Wikipedia looks like today but that future becomes something that can be integrated into other things so what you'll have is for any piece of information you'll be able to say this is the bias from which it was said these are the compositional sources and more so for example there's a great app that I use called perplexity AI okay so when you go to gpt4 or Bing you write stuff it doesn't give you all the sources perplexity actually brings in all the sources at a surface level but it references why it said certain things with gpt4 that's just going to get more and more advanced so you can dig into as much depth as you want and ask it to rephrase things is what if that article there wasn't true that fed this well what about this perspective if I wanted to be a bit more libertarian do you think it's possible to actually get to a uh fundamental truth in a lot of these areas I think it depends on the area right some areas there are fundamental truths this happened or it didn't happen even though you see deniers of various things you know a lot of stuff is probabilistic when you're thinking about the future you know but even something like climate you see a lot of deniers of the real problem that we have with it being very difficult to persuade them because it becomes part of their ideology almost but with this technology you can say look literally here is the comprehensiveness so like Jeremy Howard and Trisha Greenlee did analysis of well over 100 mask papers and do the meta-analysis and the effectiveness of that for covid and then that helped change the global discussion on masking because I'm actually bothered to do a comprehensive analysis what was the result well the result was that musk's work for Respiratory there are so many people that just refuse to believe that masks have any value yeah but let's not go down that road yeah one of the things I found interesting was the idea of a uh a GPT model being able to translate your points of view for someone else to make to receive them better like if you're hardcore to the right and you want to convince someone about your issue having uh having chat GPT or one of stabilities products generate a Rewritten version of that language so the person can hear it better I find that an interesting and Powerful tool yeah I think this is the thing it's all about your individual context and what resonates with you because information exists within a context yeah so if it's going to change a state within you you need to understand your point of view so if we think of these as really talented youngsters these AIS that go a bit funny what would you want you would want someone to sit down and say well I'm listening to your point of view in your context and my point of view in my context and let's find some common ground and then we can work from there much of politics isn't really about facts it's about persuasion because facts when you have diametrically a Divergent contexts are very difficult to do so you said being able to rewrite something from one context to another is important but then you have to understand the context and that's what these models do really really well we can take a piece and we can say rewrite it as a wrap by Eminem or in the style of Ulysses by James Joyce yeah and it will do that because it understands the essence of that you know I think people don't realize you know I want to just hit this point again we've talked about it somewhat our our minds are neural Nets our brains are neural Nets 100 trillion neurons and everything that you bring into your mind this conversation that we're having what you're watching on the TV News newspaper what's on your walls the people you hang out with are all constantly shaping the way you see your the world and shaping your mindset it's one of the things I think about in the future of uh news media is an individual actively being able to choose what mindset they want to work on like I'd like to have a more optimistic mindset like to have a more moonshot mindset more an abundance mindset and then being able to have that information fed to you in a factual fashion that allows you to instead of what the crisis News Network delivers which is a constantly negative news yeah this causes a dope mean affecting your fight or flight response yeah you can say make it from this point of view you don't change the facts but even the way things are worded or a balancing right I mean I need to see every murder tell me what the companies we got funded tell me the breakthroughs that occurred you know the science that's occurred today yeah that's but there's even again everything you can it depends on how you portray it right you know there are murders I take a murder for example yeah there is the facts there is the oh my God there'll be a million more murders there is the case that's a very sad thing there's the case that you know the police are working super hard to solve this and we need to reach out to the families and come together as a community these are all different aspects for the same terrible action yes which have different levels of positivity negativity clickbaitiness versus Community right Facebook did a study many years ago um whereby they had a hypothesis if you see sadder things on your timeline you'll post sadder things uh this is why Independence this is why independent review boards are very important and ethics as well and so they did it and guess what 600 000 users were enrolled in that study without their knowing if you see sadded things on your timeline you post sadder things was the result so like I said there's some real ethical considerations but we know this we know that if we're always bombarded by crisis we will be in a crisis mentality we know if we surround ourselves with positive people and positive messages we will have a positive mentality and it's very Insidious and more assiduous it's kind of almost passive the way we absorb it right one of the facts uh I'm writing my one of my next books on on longevity practices and a study in on the order of 20 000 individuals uh those who had an optimistic mindset lived an average of 17 percent longer I mean just your mindset 17 this was true both in men and in women slightly more in women uh and so how you think impacts everything and how you think is to a large degree going to be shaped by the media and AI is going to shape that so it's a powerful lever that we all need to be paying attention to I think it is but then you know you have to consider what is the plasticity for example of our children as they grow up yeah like we're going to have Nanny AIS yep what's that Nanny going to teach is that Nanny going to teach fight flight happiness this that what about in places like China what are they going to teach there is a huge amount of neuroplasticity that will be influenced by his decisions we make today yeah I mean listen you have young kids I have young kids as well and I think about the fact that school today is not preparing our kids anywhere near for the future right I mean I don't think Middle School and High School uh traditionally is preparing them for my kids are 12 right now yeah um how do you feel about that no I mean I think school is not fit for purpose it's a petri dish social status game and you know like child care because again let's think about school what do you what do you taught at school you talk competitive tests because we can't capture the context of the kids right we can't adapt to if they're visual Learners auditory Learners dyslexic or otherwise and it narrows it down and you're told you cannot be creative learn these facts literally you color inside the lines you learn these facts every child will have an AI in the west yes hopefully soon the world world we'll have an AI with them as they grow up and again is that AI a positive constructive or is the AI a tiger AI that kind of is aggressive work done get your words try it harder is it palaton AI for Education maybe that's the pivot for Peloton right there's a whole range of things but our kids are so sensitive as they grow and again in a school environment they're told they have to be competitive and there's only a few people that are worthy who are at the top and that's why you have click subclicks and others and that's reinforced by our social media now as well because you need something to fill the meaning I think we have to be much more intentional and think what information do we want going to our children like many people listening to this podcast we'll have banned social media from our kids how do you feel about that I think that is probably a sensible thing because it's a slow Dumb AI that optimizes for adverse things and again it's not the fault of the social media companies just how they are you know as the tiger and the Scorpion yeah I mean I have not allowed my kids to have a mobile phone and I've told them when they can afford it when they go to college but you know it's going to be somewhere between now and then but I agree I think social media shouldn't be part of the repertoire but again what is social media all right it's kids looking for status and trying to you know influence each other it was meant to bring our communities together Stronger Yeah and perhaps early on you know probably obviously the strongest communities actually in video games and guilds and kind of things like that a lot of this is again you've got X number of people posting positive things and you're like why is my life not positive like that yeah but social media does have its advantages and the question is can you tease out the positive versus the negative when you can finally customize it for each individual or are you going to reinforce silos to the nth degree I'll give you a perfect example I was just meeting with a dear friend of mine Keith ferazzi who is absolutely brilliant and he had met last week with the king of Bhutan which is known for its happiness and they were having a conversation measure their economy it's how they measure their economy um gross national happiness in that regard and uh when social media entered the country it began to plummet uh teen depression and suicides began to climb it is a very measurable real thing and that's not the subject of this podcast but AI can do what for that area well I mean again we have to think about it in terms of mental infrastructure I like that we don't have enough like Clayton Christensen said infrastructure is the most efficient means by which a society stores and distributes value Claude shanon the father of computer science said information is valuable in as much as it changes the state we do not think at all about our mental infrastructure and what's supporting it if we're lucky or if you know we try hard we can build a group of supportive people around us and where do we go when we have issues we go to that group yeah so many people feel alone you know so many people feel like again this rise in suicide or they feel not good enough because it serves the slow Dumb AI of our existing systems so I think that actually we used to take some time out to think what information do I want going to my kids we have Concepts like deliberative democracy you know whereby you get a group of diverse people from different backgrounds you give them the facts and they go and make a decision just like you have jury trials you know one of the most important things I think there is a is getting understanding the context of each person which I think Eric enhance with beer is just actually literally having time to think when was the last time you thought about your information diet and what you're feeding yourself and your kids I think about it a lot I think because that's what I teach so I'm very clear I do not watch the TV news I've never watch the newspapers I have a very filtered information that comes to me which could be argued to be an echo chamber but uh you know I'm focused on these are the scientific breakthroughs this is what's going on in longevity this is what's going on in exponential attack and solving problems so I'm I'm as critical about what I take into my mind from an information uh uh source as I am what I eat because you are what you eat and you eat information and then you absorb it right but then you know as you said the echo chamber thing I believe we should also deliberately show Counterpoint viewpoints as we're raising our kids and get them to argue the opposite I think debate is one of the most beautiful forms especially when you flip sides exactly because organisms also grow through hysteresis yes you know when you put under pressure when you're forced to do something out of the normal otherwise as you said you'll become increasingly silent but there are very few people again who think deliberately about this and something again I think you and I would probably urge all the listeners to think about are you challenging your priors are you giving the right information diet for yourself for your kids yes and then thinking about this technology as you use a gpd4 or Claude or stable um out any of these things what if you took that article and viewed it from a different perspective or what if you tied it to only be positive the news there's another part too which is we all have these cognitive biases right these cognitive biases were wired into our brain over the last uh you know hundreds of thousands of years as an Energy Efficiency mechanism because we can't process all the information coming in so we're biased by is the person look like me speak like me is this recent information versus old information paying 10 times more attention to negative information than Podge information I can't wait to have a an AI that I can flip the switch and say turn on bias notifications and it says you're looking at this in the biased fashion Peter here's another way to look at it yeah and you know being aware of your boss I mean like most religions have at the core know thyself yes ancient Greek yeah I wrote my college essay on that but I mean that's why it's at the core it's very difficult when you have the detritus of life and all these things you're bombarded with to take time back and really know yourself know your own biases understand these because they are part of what makes you you're made up of the stories there is no kind of pure independent completely rational person because we're not robots so it's possible in the future then for social media with a more conscious powerful AI I shouldn't use a word conscious as different media here but AI that you feel safe having your kids do it because it is making them happier making them more motivated it is feeding them a flow of information that's uplifting versus depressing can you imagine that future I can imagine that future I can also Imagine the future of Brave New World whereby you are fed what exactly the government wants you to and you are happy and especially with authoritarian regimes you're literally the kids are grown with their AI Nannies of course you know and you even have the Pharmaceuticals to make you extra happy and extra neuroplastic so for example you have UAE uh did a falcon model open source it was kind of supported by light on from France technologically you ask it about the UAE and it's like it's a wonderful place it's amazing in all regards you asking about some of the neighbors it's not so nice this is an inherent bias within the model but how you can understand it versus an implicit bias and you can put any biases you want yeah you can guide these models through reinforcement learning to reflect what you do and if that's the only option then you will adhere to a certain worldview again almost subconsciously yeah it'll be reflected in all the products you produce for all the writings you have and it doesn't have to be that higher percentage change a small persistent change sways a lot well exactly I mean like um half the world is religious you can agree or not or say that it follows the organized religion you can agree or disagree but I can tell you that almost every single technologist who is leading a lot of these is like I don't really like Collision right and so the inherent bias would be to talk against religious kind of things again I'm like who am I to judge you know people can be they cannot be but the inherent bias is refactor and actually it becomes very important for society because we've seen that when about 12 percent of a population changes the point of view it flips interesting doesn't take that much it doesn't take that much because you listen to the voices in Echo chamber like sometimes on Twitter you know I use my block button a lock and I'm like you know listen I've been enjoying your tweets you they've been really good um and I appreciate the frequency well yeah you know it's nice owning your own media channel in a way right sometimes I don't even have to have lunch because I'm told to eat crap so many times a day right that's why you have to hit the blog button because it's a little Echo chamber only a few dozen people and have that impact upon you yeah I mean it's going to be very interesting to see the way that our adult minds and our kids Minds evolve over the next five to ten years with the emergence of this new more powerful personalizable technology yes it's either controlled or control everybody it's Peter I want to take a break from our episode to talk about a health product that I love it was a few years ago I went looking for the best nutritional green drink on the market so I went to Whole Foods and I started looking around I found three shelves filled with options I looked at the labels and they really didn't wow me so I picked the top three that I thought looked decent brought them home tried them and they sucked first of all they tasted awful and then second nutritional facts actually weren't very impressive it was then that I found a product called ag1 by athletic greens and without any question athletic greens is the best on the market by a huge margin first of all it actually tastes amazing and second if you look at the ingredients 75 high quality ingredients that deliver nutrient dense antioxidants multivitamins pre and probiotics immune support adaptogens I personally utilize ag1 literally 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view it and where is it going so I think the advances in media artificial intelligence have been huge you've now got the Drake AI song or my favorite ice ice Matrix where the Matrix characters sing Ice Ice Baby yes um you've got real-time rigging you have real-time special effects you've got high definition creation of anything what does that mean it means that the whole industry is about to be disrupted because the cost of production reduces it was reducing in some ways anyway and we've seen this move where the cost of consumption went to zero with Napster and Spotify and then the cost of creation started to go into zero with Snapchat and tick tock and now we have a question of what are the defaults going to be now and consumers only have one limited uh currency and that's their attention I think so but consumers are willing to pay for attention they want to pay for Quality well either premium Media or you know otherwise because video games for example started as a 70 billion dollar industry 10 years ago the average score went from 69 to 74 on Metacritic over that period and now there are 180 billion dollars movies I pay for some of that with my 12 year olds yeah movies went from 40 billion to 50 billion but the average IMDb movie rating of the last 10 years has been 6.4 it has not changed so you're not producing more and so they're not consuming more so there's a question will this technology enable an increase in quality because it raises the bar for everyone yes there are more Movie Makers so they're more excellent Movie Makers and the best movie makers become even more excellent and we've democratized the tools on from an iPhone to uh you know the the tools on your on your Mac uh and of course YouTube has disrupted was the first major disruption of the it was something like Mr Beast has a much bigger audience in CNN now yeah but that comes down to what is the key Point here distribution you can make good stories but if no one hears them right and that's what that's what Disney has as its uh benefited distribution to its theme parks to its uh to its products to its channels it creates a shelling point but then if we all have our own individualized AIS that can find us what we need and sift through the crap maybe whole of distribution flips on its head in five years as well so I can't imagine you know I keep thinking that the future of of movie consumption is me speaking to my version of Jarvis and saying you know I'd like a comedy I'd like it starring me and threes three friends of mine and somebody else and for 90 minutes and set it in you know some setting and go and have it auto-generate a compelling story that that is either because I'm involved in it I'm enraptured in it or because my favorite stars are all together in unlikely place how far are we from that kind of future I'd say probably three to five years so in that in that case it's not going to be cheap but it'll be there and then it'll get cheaper and cheaper in that case there is no distribution needed a person calls up whatever they want I think there is distribution needed but in a different way music we have a variety of different music sites but how do musicians make their money now it's not Spotify a million views gets you a few thousand shirts t-shirts merchandising Global stories because there is that future of the Wally type of fat guy sitting with his VR headset yeah it's kind of depressing just like you know the Apple Vision Pro adverts I found kind of depressing when these kids are right there and just puts them up got a bit dystopian to me um I think it's more a case of there are certain stories that everyone wants to talk about like here in Hollywood what do we have this week we have Oppenheimer and Barbie I will not watch Barbie sorry would you watch Bobby Heimer only no I won't go there well I mean we can take it we can put the scripts into Claude and see what it comes up that would be hilarious yeah hilarious kind of Barbie home but again like people are talking about the Barbie movie because it's you know not uh she comes to the real world and she has challenges it'll be a hit people talk about Oppenheimer because again it will be a hit and these are produced hits these are produced hits yeah just like I saw BTS with my daughter Eternal BTS sir blackpink oh gosh she'll kill me um in Hyde Park a few weeks ago the biggest K-pop band out of Korea right um completely manufactured but lots of fun so on the one hand what you have is what you describe your personalized things that's kind of like McDonald's what's the job to be done the job is Comfort the job isn't to listen to someone else's story and expand from there it isn't a produced Michelin star meal or just a nice restaurant one that you can talk about to others like you can cook ingredients yourself at home as well sure but humans do like these bigger stories but then the nature of funding of musicians changed it was about merchandise it was about kind of a lot of this um other stuff around tours the business model has changed I mean that's the most interesting thing about exponential Technologies is it's changing the business models and I keep on you know uh advising my entrepreneurs it's reinvent your business models more than anything else you have to always look across the landscape where is the value Peaks and then you're sitting there and you're intermediating something and you're offering service value you know like there was that great quote who is it from the CEO of Netscape um all values created by aggregation or disaggregation bundling or unbundling yeah and you think about how the landscape is going to change now as intelligence has moved to the edge what was once in the hands of the studios and the high Priests of media suddenly gets pushed to the edge whereas value then it changes it flips it so let's go let's go to what's going on right now so the stream Screen Actors Guild is on strike because of why screen I mean it's better wages in general standard stuff but now there's this rapidly emerging fear of artificial intelligence so one of the proposals that came in from the other side was that basically all the extras all the actors they sign away their rights so they could be used in AI so they get a day of wage to get scanned and then they can be used for the rest of that Studio's life in producing background actors and they were looking at this like oh my God wait you can do that yeah people most people don't even realized you can do that you know script writers are saying no AI generated scripts which again is a bit weird when they're all using grammarly and things like that which was AI how are you ever going to tell you know where do you draw the line where do you draw the line because this is a technology that's coming so fast and is so good that it's almost not like technology at all it's just very natural the way it emerges and so you will get to some sort of agreement because the big actors are kind of there but the defaults that are set now reverberate so I think that's an important point that you just made uh the decisions the policies that we create today are going to take us down One path or another for the decades to come yeah it will affect the whole of Hollywood what's decided In This Moment here because there won't be another renegotiation for a while and so again how does an actor create value a top actor has a following but up and comers how did they break through what was the apprenticeship to what does a movie look like in five years even if you agree as Hollywood not to have any AI let's just say you have this kind of Dune style but Larry and Jihad and say no AI you know and someone will make a movie about no AI in Hollywood what do you do when the Chinese film studios start releasing product start racing products faster than anything you can make 500 in every language out there literally every language we have technology now again maybe this is part of what what is possible now we're going to translate Peter's voice into just about any language with his voice so it's not a voice match my lips and movements exactly match your lips and movements exactly I'm sure the podcast will be in every language by next year yeah you know and again it'll be in our voices we can make our voices sound more confident we can take his mannerisms right now and Transplant them onto my mannerism so we match so we can reshoot scenes with style yeah we can turn them into a robot in a few minutes and in fact maybe we'll do that in the front of the post and so we'll have a little scene of him becoming a robot um these are all technologies that are here now and it transforms fundamentally the nature of filmmaking because you only need one shot but don't the film actors who are uh you know standing up for their rights to not have them basically demonetized and digitized the other option is for Hollywood to just create complete artificial characters that they fully own yeah and you've seen this already with some of the kind of vloggers and you know others that have emerged out of Asia in particular fully AI generated characters yeah and you can have entire Mythos around them and you can say make it the most attractive Italian guy I've ever seen that's Broody and this and that how are you gonna tell it from a human yeah I mean like these characters can be completely and it's far more profitable for the studio to use that digital actor um so there is a disruption coming at every every level because the research to revenue pipeline has become so tight and it sets of a race condition whereby you could only produce two movies a year suddenly you can produce 20. um and then you can actually uh like we do a b testing in in subject headlines you could create 30 variants of the movie and see which one actually is the best yeah and I mean again you can say make it more make that speech raw and more emotional it will adjust the voice to make it more and more emotional right and because you're using such large data sets you know and we so we made all our data sets open and then we allowed opt out we're the only company in the world to allow opt-out because we thought it was the right thing to do so we had 169 million images opted out of our image data sets for music because it's different copyright laws we have one of the first commercially licensed music models coming out so respect for that but if I'm an artist and I go to the Louvre to be inspired and then go back and paint um and I've been inspired by Da Vinci and I start painting in a style like da Vinci um where's the difference there where's the difference and this is the reality even though we've done that by next year probably by the end of the year you will have models that have zero scrape data or human art they will all be synthetic yeah and you'll be able to bring your art to it so there's something Google just released called style drop there's hyper dream there's hyper networks that's a hyper dream Booth you can take one picture of yourself and the entire model trains to be able to put you into anything even if you're not in the model it used to take minutes hours now it's just one picture you know similarly you can bring any style and it will just mimic and imitate that style and so all of a sudden the models themselves it doesn't matter what they're trained on because there's no human endeavor in those models and then things like compensation for artists and others as you said become a bit mute because all of a sudden you have these amazing stories told by really convincing amazing actors who may or may not exist and how are you ever going to tell the difference so what's your advice let's parse it here on one side what's your advice for Hollywood uh and for actors um and on the other side I want to ask your advice for artists uh because I want to this is about mindset you know this is coming at us at extraordinary speed there's no stopping it right there's no it's you know there's no slowing it down and so you've got to deal with reality you don't deal with reality again it's inevitable even if again Hollywood says no AI the AI is coming from around the world so what do you do you think oh well my audience suddenly became the whole world yeah that's a big deal you're like what am I actually known for it's my acting skills well I will still get these things you're an up and coming actor you say I need to build community I need to kind of show up something more than that because again my acting skills in some areas can be transplanted but what about real life shows you know what about these things it does throw up the entire thing and adjust it but then musicians have had to have that adjustment they used to be able to make money on their LPS and then all of a sudden they had the Napster Spotify moments yes there is more protection in music as well because you basically according to the Robin Thicke versus Marvin Gaye case um there is an element of style protection in there that doesn't exist in visual media yeah and probably won't because the other part of this is if you're expecting governments to regulate how can they when there is a global competition going on they will lose competitiveness to other countries and you'll have regulatory Arbitrage yes and uh that is something across every industry it's going to be happening yeah I think you know the concept of you know United Artists it was originally a collective of all the artists that makes a lot of sense now I think you have to think about an element of collectivism to share the excess profits because what's going to happen is movies will get cheaper profits will go up you need to support each other as a community here and think again as a community what is our story for the next one three five ten years because all of this is going to happen quicker than it takes to make the new Avengers movie and quicker than Regulators are able to regulate and again The Regulators almost certainly won't regulate because they will start falling behind their competitor countries I mean if we look at the internet itself as it you know the media industry never expected the internet to have the disruptive impact it had and had it known it probably would have tried to get Regulators to have slowed it down or blocked it yeah the speed is too much but then also again I gave the example earlier the video game industry has gone from 70 billion to 180 billion over the next so it's holidays can we increase quality interactivity okay yeah because games are and games are media as well the media industry has increased in size the way that value is gone has been redistributed value will be redistributed again now and again it's like what is an AI enhanced actor if you're an actor what's an AI enhanced photographer filming think about your jobs the tasks that you do and what can be augmented if you had a bunch of really talented youngsters working for you right you could do more you could be more but then it means the bar is just going to keep on raising um let's turn to a different uh industry that's going to change and we had this conversation in our last podcast and on stage at abundance 360 which is coders um coding is changing dramatically what are your thoughts there so when I started as a programmer gosh 22 years ago I was writing Enterprise level assembly code for voice over IP software wow to switch that's some of the largest chunks of code out there yeah well it's very low level code we didn't have GitHub we just got subversion the following year programming these days is a large map like Lego because what you have is kind of you have a very low level but then you have levels of abstraction until you get to Pi torch in some of these other languages so you have to compile lots of different libraries because you make it easier and easier human words are just the next level of abstraction there but the nature of coding is going to change um and so the coders that are coding traditionally today around the world um what will they how will they be using and working in this industry two to five years from now well again there will be no code that doesn't use AI as part of their workflow okay I mean I think that's the important thing it's not like coders are going to go away they're going to be using a new set of tools the expectations will rise the amount of debugging unit testing all of these things will decrease because how much time do coders actually spent architecting a very little upfront it's more about understanding information flows but architecting these things it's about having feedback loops to understand customer requirements databricks is a 38 billion dollar company there's data Lakes so it takes your data to organize it allows you to write structured queries they used to have to you have to used to have to write queries now you just talk to it and it just does it yeah Microsoft to introduce the same thing I mean I can't wait for that in the field of medicine um which I want to talk about next but you said something earlier where you can imagine there can be a billion coders in the future yeah because the all the barriers to creating programs disappear yeah so it's not that there are no programs there's no programs that we know it because there's a billion programmers everyone is a programmer nobody's a programmer in a way because it just becomes a matter of course I want to make software that does something and reacts in these ways and looks like this and adapts like this and then it comes to you and you're like no that's not quite right I want this moved over it happens almost live this feedback loop it's as we talked to cheat for you know creating a paragraph that describes something we want we modify it and I mean like Channel 34 is a good example because to write an integration to something like chat GP to gpt4 used to take days weeks and API an application protocol kind of interface now what you do is actually you tell it the schema you tell it kind of what you should do and it writes it automatically literally within like a few minutes and then in a few hours you've integrated into it I've been talking about a future where we all have Jarvis Iron Man I love Iron Man as a movie it's one of my favorites and you know Jarvis is basically your personal AI that is it's a software shell it interfaces between you and the rest of the world you ask Jarvis to do something and it knows how to the tool paths on a on a 3D printer you can hop into a jet and interface Jarvis with the with the Jets computational system it'll apply the jet for you I I can't imagine that that is really far from now uh yeah let's hope that doesn't fly planes just quite yet okay they'll put the jet aircraft aside but the ability to um uh for it to become your your best friend and Confidant know your needs and desires shape the world to your uh comfort and being able to help you it's the ultimate user interface well I mean this is why a lot of the chat Bots character Ai and others have become so popular because they'll never judge you and it's good approaching that human level now yeah you know and again it is the ultimate interfaces maybe chat but as much as chatting context it's understanding you holistically no human could do that because you know even if you hire a whole team they're not going to be with you 24 7. this will be with you 24 7. I think the
key thing here is empathy yes because um jumping ahead bit to Medicine Google had their Med Palm 2 model the papers just come out in nature a it outperforms doctors on clinical diagnosis which is crazy for a few hundred gigabytes of a file yeah B it outperforms doctors on scores of empathy I found that amazing and totally logical it doesn't judge you it doesn't judge you but then you know a doctor split a million ways and they're tired and they're grumpy or this or that some of us get good doctors most of us don't yeah some of us get good teachers most of like I'm not saying education is bad because the teachers so many teachers try so hard but their attention is a bit 20 ways and they're underpaid you know I'm not saying that programs would be the nature programming will change because programmers are bad there's so many hard-working programmers it's just again the nature of these things will change when you can scale expertise and everyone has expertise available to them on tap I've been on the stage you know just pounding my fist saying listen it's going to become malpractice to diagnose someone without an AI in the loop within five years time and and probably in some areas it'll be uh inappropriate to not yet illegal to and then at some point soon after that the best surgeons in the world are going to be humanoid robots that have every possible you know atrial uh you know variation every possible you know history of of surgery and they can see an infrared and UltraViolet and they haven't had a you know argument that morning with their husband or wife and it becomes the best and these are these are demonetizing and democratizing forces for health there must be deflationary as well but I know I agree completely with this because ultimately what's going to kick it off is is your doctor AI enhanced yeah low insurance premium lower co-pay yes because there will be real economic incentives has this been cross-checked by the technology yeah reduce the cost my favorite subject is you know you probably know this how many how many medical articles are written in journals every day I don't know it's a seven thousand wow and it's like how many has your doctor read today yeah and there may be that one breakthrough that happened this morning that is the key for your Diagnostics but I mean even if they've read it right like absorbing it is one thing having the mental models these are kinds of meals that's why comprehensive Authority Upstate which is what this technology allows to happen as you said things like we're already seeing some surgeries can be done better by robot surgeons and human surgeons it'll be all surgeries yeah it will be also injury soon enough like the robotics advancements we've seen this actually goes back to your point of you know the artist going to the Louvre and seeing the da Vinci and then taking inspiration from that what are we going to do with like all of these Optimus robots and 1kx robots and others are they gonna have to shut their eyes when they see anything copyrighted they're just gonna have accidents everywhere they're like running into each other everything's gonna be black lined out yeah uh so medicine is is changing uh dramatically uh what other field are you seeing and saying people need to wake up and see what's coming so I mean medicine education are kind of the two big ones I think um but can we move this to the side right now again we've seen programming the entire nature program will change media the entire nature of media will change from journalism to filmmaking um but anything that basically you could do with someone from Asia on the other side on a computer screen will change yeah let's talk about education yeah because today um education hasn't changed in since the the one room classroom half the kids are lost half the kids are bored you're teaching to a series of tests you're teaching for a industrial era world uh and people learn differently people have Visual and auditory and tactile learning skills and let's face it we don't celebrate our teachers we don't pay them well and we don't have the best of them coming into the uh into the classroom and they're sad I mean this is the thing like you there are happy classrooms with Happy Teachers and other things but learning should be a place of Positive Growth and joy yeah it should be fun to learn and it should be fun to teach and fun to teach yes I think this is both of them because what is the nature of a teacher in five ten years let's say 10 years let's again 10 years is the crazy short period of time I mean when I asked you this question uh last time uh you know how far out can you predict what's likely to come what's your what's your Singularity boundary condition I'm I'm curious what are you seeing as three or five years I mean people I go to I go to Dubai and I'm on stage and can you talk to us about you know what the world's gonna be like in 2050 my answer is no I can barely talk about 2030. it's everything everywhere all at once lots of s-curves acceleration these are inevitable now now we've broken through these things now I mean open AI now I've put 20 of their stuff to alignment because they're basically saying that their view is five years out Elon Musk just said six years out but then elon's relationship with time is always a bit fun uh just like self-driving cars but self-dropping cars are literally here now yes we can get in one and it will drive you around San Francisco or London will do that for you not my Tesla not your Tesla I know I keep on pushing the button but it doesn't but the technology is here yeah and it was like oh wait what this is the thing so again 10 years is a dramatically short period of time for Education which has been the same for a century yes but the thing is it is inevitable that every child will have their own AI so your 12 year old will be 22. when they get to 22 and they come out of let's say University stores around University if University is still a thing yeah they will have their own AI That's learned for at least five years about them yes that can fetch them any information in any format of any type and write anything yeah or create any video or movie for them to that's a crazy thing there were concerns that Wikipedia would remove rote learning and things like that Google would do the same and maybe there are kind of again like appendices that have shriveled what's the thing that shovels the uh yeah but you know like I was at gallbladder but this is the thing like you might have some vestigial parts of your brain the entire human brain will be rewired you must assume that every child will have their own AI how that AI is driven is different because any child that has AI will dramatically outperform the kids that don't but what are we optimizing for in education and I think one of the things that we've lost is what is our objective function as a society what does America even stand for right now I agree with you what are we optimizing for Bhutan is optimizing for happiness well and and frankly I think happiness is a great thing to optimize for in general if you ask people you know what do you want more than anything at life I want happiness I want health I want love we don't talk about you know those are and there's interesting you know it was just with uh with Mo Gadot uh doing a podcast and he's a fan of your work and you're saying love your podcast and we're talking about this test of what would you trade right would you trade uh you know how much money would you trade for your happiness or for uh for your health and it starts to do a bubble sort and prioritizing what's at the top and I think for almost everybody it's health happiness um right I think it is and you know time time is the one thing you can never buy I'm working on it yeah yeah but at the moment it's something you can't buy happiness we all know we both know billionaires yeah sad yeah so sad and unhealthy it is it's like it's like you create this incredible burden for yourself for most of them like some of them that we know starting you know three or four companies a year and it's a demon being driven it's because they're addicted of dopamine in crisis I mean crisis is interesting because it comes down to decision from its root right and it's where leaders you have to show leadership but that does become addicting I think most leaders are addicted to crisis but then so are many of us because we see it all the time like oh my God the world is on fire the reality is actually this for all that we talk about most communities are happy most people are relatively content today today yeah there can be explosions like you know a decade ago that whole scene was on fire with the riots maybe that will return we're seeing in France right now we're seeing a breakdown of the social audit but it's because they're like content doesn't mean they're happy so what are we optimizing for is the question you left off so what do you think we as a society let's say the United States should be optimizing for uh I know as a life liberty understand the pursuit of happiness it's not the guarantee of Happiness when was the last time someone actually talked about happiness as a political leader in the U.S you know life liberty when's the last time anyone tried to optimize for Liberty systems inherently look to control because they have to make us simple you know this is the wonderful book seeing like the state where it talks about this concept of legibility you have a village and it's just grown and it's got all this unique character you drive a road down the middle so you can get an ambulance down there sure it helps but then everything becomes planned because you have to put humans into boxes I think in this goes to education happiness I think there's the Japanese concept of ichigai what you're good at what you like and where you're adding value to the world yeah and you can feel it yourself as well you'll feel progress if you don't have progress then how are you going to be happy if you don't belie
2023-07-22 10:16
