Putin Needs Bakhmut & Avdiivka - Russian Invasion of Ukraine DOCUMENTARY

Putin Needs Bakhmut & Avdiivka - Russian Invasion of Ukraine DOCUMENTARY

Show Video

Despite assaults from the Russian army in  different battlefield sections, the Kremlin   cannot brag about major advances. Russia continued  making slow progress in and around Bakhmut, but it   is very underwhelming if it is the anticipated  grand Russian offensive. Russia is expanding its   manpower gathered through mobilization without  achieving major breakthroughs. And the Ukrainian   counter-offensive is looming as more and more  pledged western military productions are arriving   in Ukraine. In this video, we will talk about  this and other important developments from the  

first half of March from the war in Ukraine as the  unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. We’d also like to recommend a great  way to see the history behind this war,   by getting a rapid lesson on the book Ukraine  Crisis by Andrew Wilson from our sponsor Blinkist. It’s a book that covers the events of  2013 to 2014, when the so-called Maidan   Uprising demonstrated Ukraine’s  will to escape Russian influence,   followed by the Russian invasion of Crimea  and the beginning of the war in the Donbas.   Blinkist brings you the most important ideas  from the book so that you can understand how   these triggers from the previous decade  feed right into the ongoing war of today.  

You can get this information in text or  audio form, online or through the app,   whatever’s convenient for you, and within  twenty minutes you’ll know everything you need. Don’t keep this to yourself though; Blinkist has  a scheme called Blinkist Connect, which allows you   to give access to your premium account for free  to another account, so you can bring a friend with   you on the Blinkist journey at no extra cost. It’s  like it’s two for the price of one all the time. Outside of Ukrainian politics, there are loads  of other genres to learn from on Blinkist. You  

can see for yourself for free, as if you sign  up to Blinkist via our link in the description,   you’ll get a seven day free trial, and then  twenty five percent off a premium subscription,   which is basically two for the  price of one on top. Check it out. Let’s have a quick look at the developments on  the battlefield over the period of March 1-15.   After weeks of regular and unsuccessful frontal  assaults on Vuhledar, the Russian army has still   not succeeded in this section. Several new attacks  have occurred on Vuhledar, but they resulted only   in further losses of manpower and armored vehicles  for Russia. The social media footage of March 8   shows that the 136th Motor Rifle Brigade elements  have been deployed south of Vuhledar to offset   horrific losses suffered by the 40th and 155th  Naval Infantry Brigades. We should expect new  

Russian attempts to capture Vuhledar in the  foreseeable future, but if the Russian army   does not adjust its tactics and continue using  very costly frontal assaults, Russian success   is unlikely. Late on March 15, Russian sources  made unconfirmed claims of a Ukrainian attack on   Polohy on the Zaporizhian front. The published  footage proved that the Ukrainians retreated   after losing at least 2 armored vehicles. We  will see if this is a reconnaissance-by-fire   attack or something more major. Battles continue on the North Luhansk front too.  

Russia has been on the offensive for the past  several weeks, but they have not achieved any   decisive breakthrough so far. Strong defensive  positions of the Ukrainian army in the forest   area around Kreminna have helped the elements  of the Ukrainian National Guard and the 95th   Air Assault Brigade to repel the BARS battalions  and the 144th Motorized Division in this area.   Battles have also been ongoing in the  Chornopopivka, Bilohorivka and Hryanykivka   sections of the front, but the Ukrainian  defenders are largely standing their ground.  Bakhmut continued to be the main focus  for both sides. Speculations about the  

Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut continued  circulating. Ukrainians did not withdraw from   Bakhmut in this period but could not prevent  Russians from making further gains. On March 2,   Wagner groups advanced towards Dubovo-Vasylivka in  the North, Bila Hora and Dylivka in the South, and   captured land in Zabakhmutka (eastern Bakhmut).  On March 3 or 4, Ukrainians started their retreat   from eastern Bakhmut and destroyed two bridges  in the Bakhmut section - one over the Bakhmutivka   river and another along the Khromove-Bakhmut route  west of the city to delay the Russian movement in   the area. Evidently, at this point, defending  eastern Bakhmut became untenable for Ukraine.   The advance of Wagner units in the Bakhmut section  enabled them to take control of half of Bakhmut by   March 7. This was followed by further advance in  the North, as Wagner captured Dubovo-Vasylivka   and advanced on Orikhovo-Vasylivka. On March 14,  the Wagner units captured the Vostokmash plant in  

the North of Bakhmut, where Zelensky reportedly  met with Ukrainian servicemen in December 2022.   The situation in and around Bakhmut is  getting very difficult and bad for Ukraine.   Russians are making gains inside Bakhmut and are  expanding their control around the M03 highway,   which leads to Sloviansk. We have already  talked about claimed artillery shell shortages   that Russia is experiencing, but Ukraine is  apparently suffering from the same problem.   According to the 93rd Mechanized Brigade officer,  the Ukrainian army does not have sufficient   ammunition to defend Bakhmut. He claimed that  Ukrainians know about 75% of Russian artillery's   main firing positions and command posts but do  not have shells to eliminate them. He added that  

the high command prohibits them from using western  weapons due to their high cost. It is difficult to   understand how much of that is true, but several  other Ukrainian and international sources have   also criticized the Ukrainian command for not  withdrawing from Bakhmut since, at this point,   the war of attrition in the Bakhmut section is  not as favourable for Ukraine as it was before.  On March 6, the German newspaper BILD  reported about a disagreement between   president Zelensky and the commander  in chief Valery Zaluzhny. Zaluzhny   reportedly asked Zelensky to withdraw from Bakhmut  for tactical reasons, which was rejected. This was   followed by a statement from Zelensky's office,  which said that both Zaluzhny and the commander   of the Bakhmut section of the Ukrainian army -  General Syrskyi, who was in charge of defending   Kyiv at the beginning of the war, were in favour  of continuing to fight in Bakhmut. Syrskyi has   claimed that the Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut have  “forced Wagner’s best assault units to fight and   reduced the enemy’s offensive potential.” On March  6, CNN referred to a NATO official who claimed  

that there is a 1:5 ratio of Ukrainian and Russian  losses in Bakhmut. The Institute for the Study of   War also argued that Russia has been wasting its  offensive potential in Bakhmut, giving Ukraine “a   chance to seize the initiative” in the foreseeable  future. The fog of war prevents us from making a   definitive assessment of the Ukrainian decision  not to withdraw from Bakhmut at this point, as it   is impossible for us to verify whether the ratio  of losses is indeed so unfavourable for Russia.   But in this period, Russia continued its steady  progress in this section of the battlefield,   and if they keep up this pace, Ukraine would have  to withdraw from Bakhmut completely at the point   when their presence there would become absolutely  untenable. It is notable that the United States  

has also reportedly advised the Ukrainian army  to withdraw from Bakhmut. Russia also gained   some ground towards Pervomaiske and Krasnohorivka. In this period, a minor skirmish occurred in the   border region of Bryansk, Russia. A group called  the Russian Volunteer Corps entered the Russian  

territory, wreaked havoc, and made a video calling  the Russian people to rise up against Putin. The   Ukrainian government did not take responsibility  for this incident, but Denis Nikitin-Kapustin,   who led this raid, told the Financial Times that  the Ukrainian authorities approved this action.   While this incursion does not change anything on  the battlefield, it puts the Russian command on   edge and arguably demonstrates that this war  can and will spill over to Russian territory.  But Ukraine will need more serious success on  the battlefield to change the souring mood of   its people and allies due to losses in Bakhmut,  and this can only be done through increased   military support of the West. According to the  Economist, the West has stepped up its deliveries   significantly in the three months since December  9, as “the flow of arms has accordingly turned   from a trickle to a flood.” 40% of all pledges  made by the US - worth 8 bn dollars - have been  

delivered to Ukraine in this period. The Economist  quotes a European defence official, who claimed   that the German military assistance in January  alone equals two-thirds of all their deliveries   in 2022. As a result, the third of the Ukrainian  army will have NATO-standard equipment very soon.   This is helping with the Ukrainian plans for a  counter-offensive, as its army plans to have 3   more army corps with 20k people or 6 brigades in  each of them, which would be equipped with NATO   equipment. In this period, Ukraine’s allies  continued pledging and delivering military  

assistance to Ukraine, which will be used in  the upcoming counter-offensive and beyond that.   On March 1, Der Spiegel reported that the  European Commission intends to increase   its ammunition production, including  155-mm artillery shells, drastically.   The EU intends to allocate 1 billion euros to  produce 155-mm artillery shells for Ukraine   in the short-term and additional funds for the  long-term needs of Ukraine. The Financial Times   later referred to the letter of the Ukrainian  defense minister Reznikov, where he reportedly   asked the EU for 250k artillery shells per month.  On March 3, the United States announced its   33rd military aid package to Ukraine, including  ammunition for HIMARS, US-made howitzers, Bradley   Infantry Fighting Vehicles, and other equipment.  On March 4, the Ukrainian Ambassador to Britain   claimed that London would deliver 28 Challenger  2 tanks instead of the initially announced 14.  

On the same day, Reuters reported that the  German military-industrial giant, Rheinmetall,   is talking to the Ukrainian government about  building a tank factory in Ukraine, which would   cost about 200 million euros and have the capacity  to produce 400 Panther KF51 tanks annually.   Also, on March 4, Saudi Arabia sent 168 tons of  humanitarian aid to Ukraine, while NBC stated   that Ukrainian pilots had arrived in the US  to train on F-16 simulators to understand the   time period necessary for training pilots. There  have been several other reports about providing   fighter jets to Ukraine in this period, but  nothing concrete. According to Politico, the   United States government is thinking about ways  of solving the aviation issue of Ukraine before   the start of its counter-offensive. One proposed  solution is installing AIM-120 air-to-air missiles  

with a range of 50 km on Ukrainian fighter jets.  Evidently, the decision has not been made yet,   as on March 15, it was reported that a bipartisan  group of US senators had called the Pentagon to   figure out how to supply F-16s to Ukraine,  since the war is entering the critical phase.  According to Reuters, Ukraine has also  asked the United States for cluster bombs,   which are reportedly very effective against  the Russian tactic of “human wave” attacks on   Ukrainian positions. According to the advisor  to Zaluzhny, Dan Rice, DPICM cluster bombs   supplied from Turkey have been “one of the  biggest game changers of the war… with DPICM,   it’s like using a flamethrower against the whole  ant hill”. Rice claims that DPICM has caused   the increase of Russian daily casualties  from 100-200 to 600-800 soldiers per day.  On March 8, South Korea approved the Polish  request to send Krab howitzers, which have   Korean-manufactured components, to Ukraine. Also,  Germany announced that 18 German and 3 Portuguese  

Leopard 2 tanks would be sent to Ukraine in March,  along with informing that 2 additional Gepard   anti-air guns have been delivered to Ukraine.  Poland also pledged to deliver its promised   Leopard 2s in the upcoming days. According to the  Danish Defense Ministers, 80-90 Leopard 1 tanks   will be delivered to Ukraine throughout 2023,  with the first batch intended to be sent in May.   Also, on March 8, the EU reported that 11000  Ukrainian soldiers would be trained by the end   of March, while the number will rise to 30k  by the end of 2023. The following day, Polish   president Duda told CNN that Poland and Slovakia  would give MiG-29 fighter jets to Kyiv. Poland   has also reportedly supplied medical equipment to  eight newly formed brigades of the Ukrainian Army.  

On March 13, Norway confirmed its intention  to deliver two more NASAMS systems to Ukraine.   Lastly, on March 14, Ukrainian defence  Minister Reznikov stated that Ukraine   has started building a naval coalition with at  least 3 unspecified countries already joining.   One of them is probably the Netherlands, as it was  reported that they will supply two minesweepers   to Ukraine in 2025. Reznikov also claimed that  Ukraine is currently building its navy in Turkey.   Ukraine will launch its counter-offensive in  two months, according to the presidential aide   Podolyak. More tanks and armored vehicles, along  with artillery shells, have to be delivered to  

give the Ukrainian army a higher chance of success  in turning the situation on the battlefield around   once again. We are not even talking about  such massive game-changers as advanced   fighter jets and long-range precision missiles,  the self-imposed red line that Ukraine’s Western   allies have been reluctant to cross so far. What about military support to Russia from its   friends and allies? There has not been much,  to say the least. At the beginning of March,  

the Economist claimed that China was furious  about leaked details of their potential military   aid to Russia, as it could jeopardize their  position as a neutral power-broker in this   war and worsen its relations with the West. On  March 8, Sky News released its investigation   about ammunition and almost 300k artillery  shells [sent to?] to Russia in January.  As usual, the Wagner group and its chief created  several stories for the media to report on.  

In early March, it was reported that they had  opened several recruitment centers in sports   facilities aiming to get new recruits from  aspiring Russian sportsmen. Wagner has even   placed a promo on a certain orange-black website  for adults, where they called on Russians to fight   instead of… watching cartoons. Stop it, onii-chan,  I guess. Given the level of casualties suffered by   his group, Prigozhin has to find an alternative  to prison recruitment, which he has recently been   prohibited from carrying out. Apparently, the  situation in the regular Russian army is not   getting any better either, as more and more videos  of mobilized soldiers complaining of being used as   cannon fodder in senseless assaults. In this period, Russia carried out  

only one mass attack on the Ukrainian civilian  infrastructure, albeit a very powerful one. 81   cruise missiles and Iranian-made Shahed drones  were launched on Ukrainian cities on March 9.   For the first time since the start of the  full-scale war, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic   missile was used, and according to the Ukrainians,  they didn’t have the means to shoot it down.   This was done in retaliation for the incursion  into the Bryansk oblast, but if Russia intends   to gain something from these strikes, they would  have to be much more regular. Ukrainian services   have adapted well, and Ukraine's power supply  is much better than in late 2022. For instance,  

Kharkiv had street lighting on March 8 for  the first time since the start of the war.  As the war continues, international tensions are  escalating too. There are many rumors and claims,   but the perpetrator of the explosion on  the Nord Stream pipelines is still unknown.   Several Western media outlets have recently  claimed that Ukraine may have been behind   this attack. This was strongly rebutted  by Putin, who implied that such an attack   could have only been conducted by a country with  advanced technological capacity like the United   States. Different commentators and journalists  have previously accused both the United States and   Russia of conducting this attack, as the official  investigation has not given any answers yet.  

To continue the topic of the USA-Russia  tensions in connection with the war in Ukraine,   on March 14, the Russian Su-27 fighter downed the  American MQ-9 Reaper over the Black Sea, which was   most probably conducting reconnaissance. The good  thing is that this incident did not lead to any   further escalation between the two biggest nuclear  powers in the world. Speaking of nuclear powers,   more reports about the increased diplomatic  activity of China have emerged in this period.   On March 8, the Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang  accused the United States of double standards in   supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity  while not doing the same regarding Taiwan.  

He also questioned Washington’s warnings  about Chinese military support to Russia   while America kept selling weapons to Taiwan.  He called on the United States to focus on   joint interests and responsibilities before  praising friendship between China and Russia,   which according to Qin Gang, seeks a multipolar  world, a more democratic international system   and a global strategic balance. In this period,  the media also reported about an upcoming visit   of the Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Moscow, which  may be a powerful message of support to Russia.   It was also claimed that Xi is planning to hold  an online meeting with Zelensky after his visit   to Moscow, which may further signal China’s  intention to step up its diplomatic activity   and become a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is about to enter another very   active and bloody period. The Russian offensive  in Donbas is going to reach its culmination at   some point in the spring, at the time when the  Ukrainian counter-offensive is anticipated to   be launched. According to the chief advisor  of Valery Zaluzhny, General Viktor Nazarov,  

the war will last at least another year. Indeed,  it is unlikely that the current Russian offensive   or the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive will  end the war in a single strike, barring a major   political or economic collapse for either of the  sides. Thus, sadly, there will probably be tens   of thousands more casualties in this meaningless  war launched by Putin. At this point, according to   the commander of United States European Command,  Christopher Cavoli, Russia has lost 200k men,   including at least 1800 officers, along with more  than 2k main battle tanks. On March 13, American   and European officials claimed that Ukraine had  lost 120k men killed or injured. According to  

the Oryx blog, the visually confirmed equipment  losses for Russia as of March 15 are 1831 tanks,   3817 vehicles, 233 command posts and communication  stations, 638 artillery pieces and vehicles,   180 multiple rocket launchers, 77 aircraft,  79 helicopters, and 200 drones. For Ukraine,   these are 475 tanks, 1391 vehicles, 9 command  posts and communication stations, 254 artillery   pieces and vehicles, 40 multiple rocket launchers,  61 aircraft, 31 helicopters, and 87 drones.  Thanks again to Blinkist for sponsoring  this video. Check out our link in the   description for a free trial. We will continue covering this   war in the coming weeks, so make sure you are  subscribed and press the bell button. Please,  

consider liking, subscribing, commenting,  and sharing - it helps immensely. Recently we   have started releasing weekly patron and youtube  member exclusive content, consider joining their   ranks via the link in the description or button  under the video to watch these weekly videos,   learn about our schedule, get early access  to our videos, access our private discord,   and much more. This is the Kings and Generals  channel, and we will catch you on the next one.

2023-04-05 07:08

Show Video

Other news