India vs China - Who Would Win?

India vs China - Who Would Win?

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Snow covers the landscape, the night air is  quiet except for the sniffles of freezing   men. All of a sudden flares shoot up and  trumpets start sounding. Men are rushing   forward. The defenders awake from their frozen  slumber to the sound of machine gun fire with   curses and screams filling the silence in  between each shot. The horde of Chinese  

soldiers gets closer. Now matter how many  are gunned down, the wave of bodies keeps   moving forward. Out of ammunition, the soldiers  start readying their knives, brass knuckles,   and grenades for a hand-to-hand fight. Before  they know it, Chinese troops start jumping  

into foxholes and the organized defense  becomes an every man for himself melee.  This isn’t a scene taken from the Korean war,  it’s actually what Indian troops experienced   a decade after it. And China and India could  very well go to war again. But who would win?  Despite India being one of the main proponents  of UN peace keeping missions and China not   fighting a war since 1979, these two nations  fighting one another is a real possibility.  The two superpowers have a long-standing border  dispute that started in the 1950s. After India  

gained its independence from Great Britain, the  country fought a series of full scale wars with   its new neighbor Pakistan. But India was not done  fighting border wars with its new found neighbors.  During the 1950s, the Chinese government attempted  to broker one-sided deals with India regarding its   claims to Indian territory. Having demonstrated  their willingness to defend their sovereignty   against Pakistan, the Indian government refused  offers from Mao Zedong to establish a Line of   Actual Contact or LAC. The LAC was the name  given to the border between the two countries,   with the proposed LAC in 1962 extending past  current Chinese positions. This infuriated Indian   leaders, who then rejected the proposals. As a  result, Chinese forces overran several isolated  

Indian positions within the frontier area  and Northeast India in what became the 1962   Sino-Indian War. The fighting only stopped  when China advanced to the Line of Actual   Contact, with some units moving past it. After the two nations brokered a ceasefire,   the Chinese said they would move their actual  border 20 kilometers behind the LAC and India   agreed to this. But in the sixty years since  that conflict, Chinese forces have moved past the  

decided border into the LAC, hence why the area  is still heavily militarized and hotly disputed.  Before we dive into who would win a war between  India and China, we must first look at the   possible options for what a war would look like.  For the purposes of this video, we will analyze   two scenarios. The most likely course of action  and the most dangerous course of action. For a   conflict between these two, the most likely course  of action would take place along their disputed   land borders from the Northeast Frontier down to  the Siliguri Corridor also known as the Chicken's   Neck. These borders have been a political and  military hot potato for over sixty years now,   resulting in one major war, several large  flare-ups, and thousands of territorial   violations over the years. This highly contentious  border would probably be the arena for a war to   break out between the two countries. For the most dangerous scenario,  

this would mean a full-on peer-to-peer conflict  between the two countries. This would most likely   result if India bested China in their border  war and China needed to save face. Conversely,   there is a large majority of war hawks within  the Indian population that would want to see   a full-scale escalation with China if they ever  attempted a repeat of the 1962 Sino-Indian war.  

Either way, a full-scale war between India and  China is not outside the realm of possibility.  Going back to the most likely course of action,  China and India have been violating each other’s   borders since the conclusion of the 1962  war. But despite the numerous violations,   these border clashes rarely make international  news. This is because historically, only about   1-2% of border incidents here get reported. The world is largely unaware of these skirmishes   for a few reasons. First is the remote nature  of the area. Situated in the Himalayan mountains   and part of the Tibetan plateau, the Northeast  Frontier and Northeastern India are very isolated,   harsh places to live, much less fight a military  campaign. Secondly is because both nations want to  

minimize the impact of each other’s territorial  violations to maintain political stability.  Though there are a large number of Chinese and  Indian forces in the region, the area currently   has some peculiar rules in place to dissuade  full out conflict from breaking out. For example,   both sides have agreed that military patrols  should not carry firearms. Surprisingly, this has   been largely adhered to and is evidenced by the  worst case of border violence since the 1962 war.  On June 15, 2020, several hundred Chinese and  Indian soldiers fought a six-hour medieval style   battle in the Galwan valley. During the  battle, both sides used knives, bayonets,   clubs with barbed wire, and bats to pummel each  other. Over the course of six hours, 20 Indian and  

an estimated 45 Chinese soldiers were killed with  76 wounded on the Indian side alone. It’s exactly   this type of escalation that would most likely  kick off another war between the two powers. (Previously unreported border clash that  took place September 2021 northeast India)  So in the event that another such skirmish like  this started another border war, let’s take a look   at what each side would bring to the table. Starting with their armies, India and China   have the first and second largest armies in the  world in terms of personnel. In the blue corner,  

India boasts a force of just under 1.25 million  active-duty personnel. In the red corner,   China comes in with around 300,000 less troops  in their counterpart, the People’s Liberation   Army-Ground Force. But the difference in  numbers is deceiving. Over the past decade,   China has started to shy away from its brute  strength in numbers to focus on more precision   weapons. On the other hand, India has opted  to recruit heavily to bolster its army to   make up for some critical gaps in technology. These critical technology gaps become more   apparent when looking at the Indian army’s heavy  equipment. Due to India toeing the line between   Washington and Moscow during the Cold War,  their military, and especially their army,   is equipped with a mix of Soviet, Russian,  and Western equipment- and none of it is the   best either side has or had to offer. As  for the army, the vast majority of their  

equipment is of Russian or Soviet origin.  Take their main battle tanks for example.  The primary main battle tank of the Indian  army is evenly split between the Russian   T-90 and Soviet T-72. Fielding about 2000  and 2400 tanks respectively, these vehicles   make up the bulk of India’s armored force. As  for the T-72, though being a battle-hardened   platform seeing action across the globe, the US  invasion of Iraq and the current war in Ukraine   have shown that these legacy Soviet systems  have little place on a modern battlefield.  With known vulnerabilities to anti-tank systems  like the British NLAW or American Javelin, these   Soviet tanks are vulnerable to modern top-down  attack weapons. Due to the Chinese military’s   infamous campaign of stealing information  and reverse engineering critical technology,   they have developed their own domestic copy  of the American Javelin. Known as the HJ-12,  

if you put them side by side, you would be hard  pressed to find many differences between the two.  Purported to have a range just under  the American Javelin at 2 kilometers,   the Chinese HJ-12 has been in active service  for several years. On the other hand,   the Indian military is still in the process  of creating a similar type of weapon system.   Though the they have carried out several  successful tests over the past two years,   it’s unknown when this system will finally be  rolled out into active service. Until then,   Indian forces will not have the capability  to launch man-portable top-down attacks on   armored vehicles like Chinese troops could.  Instead, they would have to rely on helicopters   or improvised missile carriers like the Nag  missile carrier that fires the Nag anti-tank   missile. Though potent, this weapon system  has also proven to have issues firing in  

environments with heavy smoke, fog, or dust. This is a big problem for Indian who heavily   relies on the Russian built T-90s as the  backbone of their armored force. The T-90   was Russia’s solution to eventually replace the  failed T-80 and aging T-72 and T-64 series of   tanks. Envisioned to have state-of-the-art  sensors, fire control computers, and armor,   the tank was supposed to be the best tank in  Russian service, and arguably it is- even if   Russia’s plans for sophisticated electronics  never really panned out the way it hoped. The cornerstone of the T-90 is its Arena active  protection system. The only problem was Russia  

did not include that system in its foreign sale  agreements. Active self protection systems are   considered the gold standard for modern tanks.  This is because tank armor can only get so thick   and heavy before it starts to encumber the  vehicle's movement. Active self-protection   is a concept taken from naval warfare and put  onto a tank. Here, a series of radars scan for   incoming missiles or projectiles. The tank can  detect these threats and can either fire off   flares or chaff for a soft kill, or fire its own  interceptors at it for a hard kill. Some tanks  

can even perform soft kills by jamming the radio  waves that the missile's onboard radar is using.  With that in mind, the Indian military doesn’t  have access to this critical technology because   as is common with export weapons, the host  country selling it does not want to give away   all the technology that goes along with it.  Because Russia has kept the arguably pretty   good Arena active protection system a state  secret, India has been trying to outsource   its procurement of more advanced protection  systems to other countries, to no avail so far.  Despite not being able to find a good  supplier for active protection systems,   India has produced its own completely  indigenous tank, the Arjun. The Arjun   is the first and only tank entirely designed and  produced in India. While India did produce most  

of its T-72s and T-90s under a Russian license,  Indian engineers relied on no outside help and,   after almost thirty years developed a  heavily armored and modern tank of their own.  The Arjun is by far the best tank that India  can field. With a weight-to-power ratio of 24,   the tank is adequately powered to be maneuverable  on both road and off-road conditions. With its   120mm main gun, it can fire a wide range of  rounds and its heavy armor brings it to a   weight of just under 60 tons fully combat loaded,  with the newest variant weighing in at 67 tons,   which is comparable to an American Abrams tank. This tank also has an active protection system,   the only tank in India’s arsenal to have this  feature. Designed around detecting incoming  

electromagnetic signals from anti-tank guided  missiles, the Arjun can then use jamming and smoke   shells to defend against these threats. While  certainly a leap in Indian armored technology,   this capability would still outclassed  by more modern protection systems seen   in Western countries or even Russia. Squaring off against India’s tanks   would be a wide variety of Chinese tanks.  Outnumbering Indian tanks by about a thousand,   the Chinese advantage in numbers doesn’t give  it much of an edge over Indian due to Chinese   tanks having weaker engines, a lack of adequate  protection systems, and no combat experience.  The two mainstays of the Chinese armored force  are the Type 96 and Type 99. Numbering 2500 and  

1200 respectively, these tanks make up the bulk  of the armored force that would stream across   the Indian frontier in the event of another  Chinese invasion. As for the Type 96, the tank   was born from a knee-jerk reaction by the Chinese  military leadership. The Type 88 tank was largely   based on legacy Soviet models like the T-54/55  tanks. These tanks made up the bulk of Saddam's  

tank force during the Gulf War, and Chinese  officials watched in horror as modern Western   main battle tanks completely annihilated them. Because of this, the Type 96 was rushed through   its development process. This resulted in the  creation of an adequate enough tank that wasn’t   much better then its predecessor, the Type 88.  Though it was slightly heavier and had better   armor, it was severely underpowered. With just  a measly 730 hp, later upgraded to 865 hp, only  

the latest models have an engine that is  not underpowered. With a power-to-weight   ratio of about 18 for older models, the  early Type 96 was much less maneuverable   than its heavier western counterparts. Additionally, the Chinese also implemented   a similar active protection system to the one  used on the Arjun but stopped equipping their   tanks with it when modern anti-tank missiles  could defeat it. Because of this, a replacement   for the Type 96 was needed almost as soon as it  entered service. The next step was the Type 99.  The Type 99 was a massive improvement over  the Type 96. The Chinese army installed a   1500 hp twin-turbo diesel engine to solve its  chronic issues of being underpowered. Now with  

a power factor of about 27, the tank was on par  with western tanks in terms of maneuverability.   The tank also got thicker armor that pushed  its weight into the 50-ton range. However,   its crown jewel was its active protection system. The Type 99 received an upgraded version of the  

Type 96's protection system with improvements  in both its jamming and radar technology. But   its most unique feature is the system’s laser  weapon. China claims that their APS systems   use lasers to destroy incoming missiles. This  claim, like most other Chinese military claims,  

has never been verified by independent observers.  It’s more likely that the Chinese use lasers to   disrupt or confuse seekers on inbound missiles  versus creating some death ray that explodes   missiles on impact. But while little is known  about these systems, western analysts have argued   that the laser's effectiveness in low-visibility  situations such as whwn operating in heavy smoke,   fog, dust, and snow would be greatly limited.  Because of this, the tank crew's best weapon would   be the all-around radar that could detect incoming  threats and alert the crew of a missile seeker. 

As far as comparing the two countries' tank  forces, they are pretty evenly matched. As   everyone is aware, the Russian use of T-72s in  Ukraine has yet to work out well for them. This is   because tanks like the T-72 are not much better  than target practice on a modern battlefield   without modern upgrades to sights, fire control  computers, and active protection systems.  It’s unknown whether or not India has been  upgrading their fleet of existing T-72s,   and due to budget constraints, it’s unlikely  they have been outfitted with the most modern   upgrades. Even so, we do known that they have  made many upgrades to their T-90s by incorporating   advanced gun sights, computers, and communications  equipment from countries like Israel and France.   These upgrades have made the Indian T-90 arguably  better than the ones in Russian inventories.When  

comparing the two countries, the T-72 and Type  88, as well as the Type 99 and T-90 are evenly   matched. India would have a slight edge with  its newest Arjun tanks, but there are only two   in service, and it would need many more to make  a difference on the battlefield. Additionally,   because Chinese soldiers have better  anti-tank weapons in the HJ-12, Indian   armor would be in more danger than Chinese tanks. As far as comparing Air Forces, the scales tip   much more in favor of China. The core of  Indian’s Air Force comes in the form of  

its 173 MiG-21 and MiG-29 aircraft. Comprising  the heart of its multi-role aircraft are the 272   Russian Su-30MKI aircraft. Opposing these  Indian planes are just over 2,000 Chinese   fighters and multi-role aircraft. The mainstay  of the Chinese air arm would be the J-10 and   J-11 aircraft, each with around 500 in service. The MiG-21 and MiG-29s that India fields are quite   old. Having been built in the 1960s and 70s, these  planes are better suited for museums than modern  

air spaces. This is evidenced by a notable amount  of crashes the Indian air force has suffered over   the past several years, including one last year  where two pilots died. The causes of the accidents   have been kept a state secret, but it’s likely  because India's airframes are old and spare parts   are hard to come by. In fact, by 2025, India  will ground all its remaining MiG-21 aircraft,   just over a hundred, and the MiG-29s will likely  be soon to follow. This means that these airframes   are likely in such a bad shape that they cannot  continue flying routine training missions,   much less continuous combat sorties. With the two hundred or so MiG fighters  

out of the question, India will have to rely  heavily on its Su-30 aircraft in case of a war.   While India has several newer aircraft models  like the Dassault Mirage and Rafale, these   number less than a hundred total units. More than  likely, the Indian air force would send its Su-30   aircraft to retake the skies over the northern  frontier if tensions escalated to full-out war.  Comparing the Su-30 to the J-10 and J-11 aircraft,  we see that the Su-30 is much heavier, about twice   as heavy, but it’s able to achieve slightly better  speeds. The J-10 and J-11 were both leaps in  

Chinese aviation technology. While the J-11 is a  domestically produced Su-27 built under license,   the J-10 was domestically designed and produced.  Both of these aircraft can achieve faster speeds,   higher service ceilings, and more maneuverability  than any other Chinese aircraft produced before.  However, in a dog fight, they would be at a slight  disadvantage depending on where they were. Under  

normal conditions below 20,000 feet, the Su-30  would easily outgun them since their radars and   missiles can hit them further than their own  organic sensors could track the Su-30. However,   in altitudes above 20,000 feet, the Su-30 loses  some of its maneuverability due to how heavy it   is. In the case of the northern frontier, where  altitudes are routinely 16,000 to 23,000 feet,   all aircraft there would be flying near  the ceiling of their operational endurance.  Additionally, this does not take into account  numerous other aircraft the Chinese have in   their inventories, such as the J-16 and XH-7.  The J-16 is one of the most modern aircraft   the Chinese possess. With about 200 hundred in  service, the Chinese have a fourth-generation  

fighter that is stealthier, faster, and with more  advanced avionics than the J-16. The aircraft is   also equipped with electronic warfare packages  that can suppress or destroy enemy air defenses,   something that India only added to its  inventory for the first time in 2020.  Because of all this, the Indian air force would be  at a severe disadvantage in any scenario against   the Chinese air force. The Indian air force  is both outgunned and outnumbered in almost   every area. With them losing several hundred  aging MiG fighters over the next several years,   India would be hard-pressed to come up with a  strategy to employ its fighter aircraft smartly.  Perhaps in a scenario against China, the India  could take a page out of the Ukrainian playbook   and move their aircraft around. They could have  mobile air bases and store them in forested areas  

to prevent being seen taking off from highways.  Because of the huge difference in capability   and numbers, the best the Indian air force could  do is to keep the skies contested. India simply   does not have the means to gain strategic air  superiority over the Chinese. While they could  

gain local air superiority in remote places  like the northern frontier along the LAC,   as an overall strategy, India would be focused  on harassing and denying Chinese aircraft   freedom of movement as much as possible. Due to the northern frontier and Line of   Actual Control being landlocked, the navy  would not play a part in these operations.   With that in mind, let's first evaluate the most  likely course of action before diving into the   most dangerous course of action. Because of  the extreme altitudes, any sort of mechanized   warfare is basically out of the question. Sure some light tanks and vehicles could get  

through, but their mobility would be limited.  Additionally, resupplying in the mountains is   notoriously tough. If not enough supplies were  prepositioned, getting enough fuel up there   would be a struggle during wartime. As far as air  superiority, though China has many more aircraft,   the extreme altitudes would mean that all aircraft  have to carry less fuel and ordnance than they   normally would. The freezing temperatures and poor  weather most of the year would undoubtedly affect  

flight time. Because of this, even if the Chinese  gained air superiority, foul weather would likely   negate most of this advantage, leaving their  infantry formations exposed to Indian fire.  Since the high mountains limit armored warfare  and foul weather would limit aircraft sorties,   the fight in the northern frontier would  likely boil down to a light infantry and   artillery duel. Because China has about twice the  amount of artillery India possesses, it could,   in theory, outgun Indian artillery. But  again, the mountains come into play.  Fighting in these extreme conditions would  limit most types of radars. Modern artillery   systems use radar to detect incoming rounds, this  information is then used to direct fire missions   to the location of enemy batteries. Because  of the high elevations of these mountains,  

artillery crews would be very limited on when  and where they could fire. Thus an artillery   fight in these conditions would probably involve  a lot of direct line-of-sight shooting. That kind   of fighting would come down to the individual  crew's ability to load, sight, and fire their   guns faster and better than the other side can.  This would definitely level the playing field.  Another factor that would level the playing  field would be the Indian army's actual combat   experience. China has not fought in a conflict  since its disastrous 1979 invasion of Vietnam.   On the other hand, the Indian military  is quite battle-hardened. From border   skirmishes with Pakistani soldiers and Islamic  militants in the northwest frontier to fighting   seven different guerilla groups in northeastern  India, the military has been engaged in fighting   low-level insurgencies combined with flare-ups  with Pakistan from time to time. Additionally,  

India has historically been one of the largest  contributors of peacekeepers to UN missions.  At any given year, on average several thousand  Indian soldiers are deployed to combat zones   abroad. With that number in mind, there are likely  tens of thousands of soldiers who have combat   experience abroad still serving in the Indian  army. Combined with the tens if not hundreds   of thousands of troops who have experience  serving in conflict zones internally, India   has the upper hand in terms of combat experience. Because the Chinese troops lack this experuence  

and the extreme environment negating  many advantages in Chinese technology,   Indian forces would likely have the edge as  long as their command and control employed   their infantry effectively. During the 1962  war, the Indians suffered heavy casualties   because their generals did not want to give up  any ground. This caused units to become isolated   and surrounded as they were not allowed  to retreat, and Chinese formations simply   overwhelmed and wiped out these outposts. Modern Indian strategists suggest that in  

the event of another border war with China, Indian  troops should have mountainsides and roads rigged   with explosives. Doing this would slow down  Chinese troop movements and could force them   into prepared positions where Indian troops would  have the advantage. However, this strategy hinges   on the fact that Indian territory would have to be  given up to bottleneck Chinese troops into these   traps. Voluntarily allowing Indian territory  to be surrendered is something that Delhi is  

not too keen on doing since any land occupied  by China during the conflict is unlikely to be   given up, as evidenced by the 1962 peace accords. In the case that the border war leads to a larger   conflict, the conflict would likely be fought  with naval, space, cyber, and missile assets,   at least for the first stage. Theoretically  speaking, the war aim of China would be to   land an invasion force in India to take over major  population centers; the Chinese navy would be the   star of the show for the first half of that fight. When comparing the two countries' navies,  

the Chinese navy appears to have the advantage at  first glance. Over the past twenty years, China   has been on an aggressive campaign to modernize  and strengthen its navy from a regional power   that could only operate in the South China Sea to  a navy that could operate in any waters around the   planet. Part of this modernization has been the  development of surface combatants and submarines.  As far as surface combatants, the Chinese  outnumber the Indian navy with 67 modern   surface combatants against roughly 41  modern Indian combatants. The term modern   typically means large surface combatants  equipped with Vertical Launch Systems,   a combat systems suite capable of launching  modern missiles. When considering these numbers,   China has about 26 Luyangs Destroyers and  30 Jiangkai Frigates. On the other hand,  

India can field just 24 destroyers and frigates  of various types that have the same capability.  The Luyang destroyers and Jiangkai frigates  represent the best in Chinese naval advancements.   These two ships can fire some of the most  advanced missiles China has in its arsenal,   including the much-feared YJ-62. These  ships are, for all intents and purposes,   China's attempt to copy the American Aegis combat  system and the destroyers and cruisers that house   them. Complementing the Chinese ships are their  ability to operate with their own tactical data   links like the American Link 16. Tactical data  links are huge in naval warfare since if tracks  

and information cannot be shared securely  between ships, it defeats the purpose of   the extended range these combat suites provide. While these two ships represent the best in the   Chinese surface fleet, it’s what is beneath the  waves that should India’s leadership. The Chinese   navy fields the world's second most capable  submarine force behind the United States. While   the Chinese field a variety of nuclear-powered  submarines, their most fearsome is the Type   39A Yuan class submarines. What makes these so  special is the engineering plant inside of them.  For decades, what has made nuclear-powered  submarines better than traditional diesel-electric   boats has been the fact that nuclear-powered  submarines never had to surface. Unlike their  

nuclear counterparts, diesel-electric submarines  have to surface to recharge their batteries,   making the vessel vulnerable to attack from  surface ships and aircraft. For decades,   countries have been trying to create a reliable  engineering plant where diesel submarines would   not have to surface. Known as Air Independent  Propulsion or AIP, about ten countries have   figured out how to create this type of  engineering plant as of today. However,   there is much variation in the effectiveness of  these plants, with China claiming that they made   the best AIP engineering configuration to date. There is still a huge debate in the naval   community on whether diesel or nuclear  submarines are harder to detect. Each one   has its own pros and cons. However, the fact  that China has developed arguably the quietest  

diesel submarines on the planet is not good news  for India. But despite all of this, India is not   totally defenseless against the Chinese navy. Standing against the Chinese navy are several   dozen modern frigates and destroyers. The  combat capabilities are pretty similar to   their Chinese counterparts with one major  exception: Indian naval vessels are armed   with the fastest cruise missile in any nation’s  inventory. The missile is called the BrahMos   and was made in conjunction with Russian  engineers throughout the early to mid-2000s.   The end result has been truly extraordinary. The missile can be outfitted to ships, aircraft,  

and submarines. It cruises around Mach 1, then  transitions to an eye-popping Mach 3 for its   terminal phase of flight. The missile also  has the sea-skimming capability of staying   about ten feet off the surface of the ocean.  India classifies the missile's flight paths,   but it’s likely it has a wide range of flight  paths, including a high diving path to defeat most   modern combat systems suites. The missile also has  an extreme range of about 500 kilometers or 270   nautical miles. This is important because this is  just beyond the max effective range of the Chinese  

YJ-62 of 400 kilometers or 250 nautical miles. But despite this advantage, in overall terms of   ballistic and cruise missiles, China is the clear  winner. China is, bar none, the most prolific   producer of cruise and ballistic missiles in the  world. With thousands of missiles of dozens of  

types, the Chinese have made missile technology a  mainstay in their arsenal. The primary reason for   this has been to keep the American Navy away from  the South China Sea by blanketing the area with   extended-range munitions since its surface forces  could not go toe-to-toe in a fight with the US.  China could leverage these long-range weapons  in a war with India by using them to pummel   strategic sites well out of reach from Indian  threats. According to maps released by the   Office of Naval Intelligence, China can send  thousands of missiles against targets across   the Indo-Pacific region. In the 1000-kilometer  to 5000-kilometer range that encompasses most of  

India, China could send hundreds of missiles into  Indian territory with little fear of counterfire.  Another way they could attack Indian targets  is through their extensive cyber warfare arm.   According to a study released in 2021, China  is number two in the world in terms of cyber   warfare capability, with India coming in at  number 12. But how could this be when India   produces the most college graduates in the  field of information technology and cyber in   the world? The main reason has been priorities. Before about 2015, India was content with just   being a regional power. However, their fear  of China has made the country's politicians  

envision India being a peer with China. Part  of being a peer is having a strong military,   so they do not get bullied by Chinese tactics they  have used on smaller nations. Because of this,   India began an aggressive Made in India  campaign to produce all types of weapon   systems domestically. This is why so many of the  newest Indian defense technologies have rolled  

out over the past several years or are still in  development. Cyber warfare was one of those areas.  India's cyber economy is amongst the strongest  in the world. However, for years the private   sector has been under attack from a virtual  onslaught of ransomware and cyber attacks   both from criminal groups and nation-state  actors like North Korea. Because of this,   Indian society has now hardened its networks to  be among the strongest in the world. All citizens  

virtually require two-factor authentication  for every website and app imaginable. This same   mentality has spread to its military as well. However, India’s cyber warfare arm is still in   development. Because the superpower has never  needed this capability before, they have been   working with the US and other western countries  to help them develop their capabilities. China,  

on the other hand, has the world's largest,  albeit low-tech offensive cyber arm.  Estimates vary, but a ballpark range of 100,000  cyber warriors spread among military and criminal   groups that the Chinese government directly  controls is a generally accepted number. It’s   a fact that China is the most prolific cyber  attacker in the world, however, their methods   tend to not be very sophisticated. For example,  the vast majority of thwarted cyber attacks are  

actually traced to Chinese government sources.  Though China has carried off some exceptionally   successful cyber operations in recent years,  these can all be attributed to the sheer   volume of attacks conducted and getting lucky. The best way to describe China's cyber warfare   capabilities is through the saying “throw  it against the wall and see what sticks.”   Countries like the US would exploit one glaring  vulnerability without ever being detected,   while China would try every way of infiltrating  while hoping one works. China would certainly beat  

India regarding offensive cyber operations. Still,  because India has been hardening its networks,   it’s unclear how much damage the  Chinese military could really inflict.  Further compounding China’s problems is the fact  that it still lacks a significant amphibious   capability. Currently, China’s amphibious  assault fleet is inadequate for an attack   on Taiwan- an island just off China’s coast- and  just to attempt it, China would have to conscript   hundreds of civilian vessels. An attack into  the Indian ocean would be suicide for China. 

While China couldn’t realistically threaten India  with its naval forces, India meanwhile sits on   China’s trade jugular. With much of China’s  oil imports passing through the Indian ocean,   India’s navy could with ease cut China off  from this badly needed supply. This would leave   China with only fuel imports from Russia, which  would barely be enough to run its military. Its   civilian sector would suffer from dramatic fuel  shortages and its economy would tank as a result.  But if, for some reason, China could land an  invasion force in India successfully, the fight   would still not be finished. China hasn’t had the  experience of fighting a war on foreign soil in a  

long time. Keeping their military supplied  would be a challenge unless Chinese troops   completely overrun the northern frontier areas. So in order for India to win a peer-to-peer war   with China, they would need to hold their  northern and eastern frontiers against China   while also inflicting significant losses on the  Chinese navy. Suppose the Chinese navy remains   relatively intact and Chinese forces conduct  a successful two-pronged invasion from the   north and from the sea. In that case, India  would likely be outgunned and outproduced  

in the long run since China remains the world's  number one manufacturer and number two economy.  Now watch “Why China is About to  Collapse.” Or check out this video instead.

2023-05-02 06:46

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