Focus Group Discussion on Carbon Dioxide Removal with Negative Emission Technologies
Filipino scientists and their game-changing contributions to the world of science know more about all of them and let the saline lahi Science Center be your gateway into their minds thank you [Music] before we begin please be reminded of Warehouse rules proper decorum is expected among all participants any Act of disrespect and witness shall not be tolerated throughout the duration of the webinar kindly key in your questions for the panelists in the Q and A he answered during the open forum [Music] [Applause] [Music] good morning to everyone I am the chairman of the Department of mechanical engineering of the LaSalle University and I will be your moderator for this focus group discussion baseball script discussion will be on carbon dioxide removal with negative emission Technologies hosted by the engineering science and technology division of the National Academy of Science and Technology facilities now this forum aims to discuss the viability of integrating any piece into a multi-decade National Climate Change plan and also to craft a white paper outlining the research development and deployment roadmap for any EPS in the Philippines to environmentally start our may we call it on academics the interim president of Nas and member of the Agricultural Science tradition to give the welcoming remarks the virtual tour is now yours thank you very much for the kind introduction National scientist Dolores Ramirez steam colleagues in the academy fellow workers in government our invited resource persons participants from the science community and guests present morning to all of you on behalf of the Academy I am pleased to welcome you to today's focus group discussion on carbon dioxide removal today's discussion will focus on negative emission Technologies as the symbol of the nation's commitment to science the National Academy of Science and Technology Philippines and attached agency to the Department of Science and Technology is mandated by law to serve as an advisor to the president and the cabinet on policies concerning science and technology in the country through various activities members of the academy and other experts gathered here today to present up-to-date information and to raise awareness to the General Public and put forward science-based policy recommendations to address the gaps and improve policy implementation to our policy makers this fgd aims to present new technologies that will have lessened the effects of global warming and to tackle this issue as a whole to achieve a healthier and more sustainable environment and to drop appropriate policy recommendations I expect the discussion to identify key factors in establishing carbon neutrality targets to be on track to meet its commitments in reducing greenhouse gas emissions negative emission technologies have the potential to be a viable contributor in lessening the effects of global warming in particular we hope to come with the policy recommendations that will address environmental concerns to reduce carbon emissions and develop negative emission Technologies to achieve a sustainably cleaner and safer environment I would like to thank the engineering sciences and Technology division for initiating this event let me uh particularly acknowledge the efforts of a condition remote tan who work hard to make this event possible I would also like to thank engineer Maria Victoria Migo sumagan Dr Beatrice Del Monte Dr Ivan Anderson and Dr John fabric Tapia for their participation in this focus group discussion on behalf of the Academy I would like to thank everyone for sharing your time with us and I look forward to a meaningful and productive discussion with all of you once again morning tour thank you very much now I mean before we proceed with the discussion let us now call on academic member of the engineering sciences and Technology division of nasd to give us an overview of this focus group discussion and discuss negative Mission Technologies is a distinguished professor of the Department of chemical engineering a university fellow and the current vice president for research and Innovation at the LaSalle University is also a member of the of nasd he has close to 500 Publications in his Corpus database with over 11 000 citations and in each index of 50p his research in systems engineering with applications to carbon management and Industrial sustainability and he is the co-developer of the carbon emission pinch analysis algorithm here is the editor-in-chief of process integration and optimization for sustainability associate editor of sustainable production and consumption and of cleaner engineering and Technology he serves as an editorial board member of clean Technologies and environmental policy he has received multiple scientific Awards and distinction and is included in both Stanford list of the top two percent as the world scientists across all fields and the Reuters hot list of the world's top 1000 climate researchers is now yours thank you very much Dr Gray to my colleagues the national scientists in attendance at division Roscoe last interim president members of The Academy our resource persons and MC and of course the nasd support team good morning if you'll allow me to share my screen I prepared a brief presentation to give an overview of negative emissions Technologies I'll begin my presentation with this quote from an ipcc report that was published earlier this year this is the ar-6 report of working group 3 and one of the excerpts says the carbon dioxide removal will be needed to counter balance residual emissions in the energy sector and this authoritative statement actually points to the need at the global scale to be able to not just cut greenhouse gas emissions but to actually do the reverse and remove carbon dioxide that is already in the atmosphere and draw it down into other environmental and physical compartments so the overview that I'll be giving is broken down into five parts the most important of which is a quick overview of negative emissions Technologies and the role that we expect them to play in carbon management now an overview here is based on the target to keep warming by the end of the century to well below two degrees Celsius of increased relative to pre-industrial temperatures and aspirationally to get closer to 1.5 degrees Celsius so that is the target Zone and that Target actually requires very deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and that actually means that if we look at the current emissions that amount to 40 gigatons per year of greenhouse gases that needs to be reduced to Zero by the middle of the century if you try to think of the scale of this task that means that we need to reverse within the span of one human generation an increasing Trend that goes back tens of thousands of years so that is a pretty big challenge nevertheless what we see globally is a zero emissions bandwagon we have for instance the European Union committing to achieving climate or being asked gas neutrality by mid-century Japan has done something similar the UK has done that and even developing countries like China and India and our neighbors in Southeast Asia have made pledges to achieve carbon neutrality although much later than the developing countries or rather the developed countries where are you going we're going to go now what we also see is the need to achieve deep emissions Cuts not just using conventional Technologies but using techniques such as carbon capture and storage also known as ccs and carbon dioxide removal or CDR techniques otherwise known as negative emissions Technologies now to understand exactly what is needed it's important to go back to the basics and that means understanding the global carbon cycle this is from an ipcc cartoon from 10 years ago and it shows just the major carbon fluxes that occur among the different major compartments on the planet that is terrestrial carbon stocks ocean carbon stocks and atmospheric carbon stocks the problem generally arises from the this equilibrium that results from human activities and what that means in particular is through our use of fossil fuels humanity is taking carbon that was originally stored geologically in hydrocarbons and through combustion we're converting that into carbon dioxide which is then transferred to the atmosphere and the this equilibrium arises from this rate of transfer being so much faster than the geological rates that we observed in pre-industrial times so there is a net transfer into the atmosphere and that creates a warming effect known as the greenhouse effect so how do we get this under control some of the measures we can take actually rely on amplification or magnification of some of the flows that we find favorable for managing climate change so for example the most obvious low-tech solution is afforestation which is simply the creation of New Forest land now the logic here is very simple we know that deforestation creates greenhouse gas emissions through what is known as land use change or Luc and it starts to reason then that creating new Forest Area or reversing deforestation then generates what we refer to as negative land use change and that draws down through photosynthesis carbon dioxide from the atmosphere now that is definitely one of the solutions that we should look ahead to but there are constraints and problems ranging from of course land use or land requirements of human populations nutrient requirements as well as biodiversity risks that are posed for instance when we have too much of one particular species of trees in large managed plantations now related to this is a technique known as soil carbons sequestration soil is home to a large Global stock of carbon in the form of both living and dead biomass so it is actually possible to change some of our practices for instance in agriculture to encourage the sequestration of biomass from for example from crop residues to store this in soil so that it's locked up rather than being transferred to the atmosphere so this is a technique which is alternatively referred to under the umbrella term of natural climate Solutions it has its advantages again being low-tech and relatively mature but there are concerns about the lack of permanence of storage because the biomass can of course Decay afterwards and release carbon again into the atmosphere but that is still one of the solutions we can look ahead to now related to soil carbon sequestration is an engineered augmentation of of that and that means basically rather than using raw biomass to store carbon and soil if we carbonize the biomass basically if we make charcoal and instead of burning the charcoal we use it just like compost as a soil amendment um agent then what we do as a secondary effect is we store the relatively stable carbon in this char as carbon and soil and this can be done for example in the context of Agriculture it can be done in marginal lands as well but it does it is a supercharged form of soil carbon sequestration now if you look at the non-photosynthetic avenues for negative emissions one of the major ones that is the subject of significant Global Research interest is enhanced whether ing is simply the natural reaction that occurs between carbonic acid which is rain water plus the dissolved atmospheric CO2 which is a very weak acid and that reacts with Alkali minerals for example silicates and that can result in the sequestration of the carbon as dissolved by carbonate ions that are carried by runoff water into the ocean so that is a naturally occurring process it is of course as we say geologically slow but there are ways to accelerate this process and engineer the systems so that we're able to capture this at significant rates for the global climate mitigation challenge related to enhanced weathering is ocean alkalinization the ocean is a large sink or carbon but the equilibrium between the atmosphere and the ocean especially the surface waters really depends on ph and the more alkaline the ocean is the more CO2 it can absorb through dissolution and through reactions but the problem there of course is as the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases more of it dissolves in the sea in the seas and actually raises the pH so we can synthetically but of course looking at the potential adverse effects on marine life just very slightly raise the ph that can enhance the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere and just use the large potential of the ocean as a carbon stock and of course there are highly engineered techniques for example direct air capture which uses chemical and physical processes to directly skim CO2 from the atmosphere and the related technique of bioenergy with ccs and that uses biomass that is cultivated to draw CO2 from the atmosphere and then used as fuel in large industrial plants but rather than returning the exhaust gases from combustion into the atmosphere we use chemical and physical processes to remove the CO2 and eventually find a geological sink in which to store the captured CO2 from both of these engineered techniques the problem there is you need to have large and secure CO2 reservoirs to enable such long-term storage so these are the these are not the only techniques but these are the major ones that are currently considered mainstream in the global net literature now this is also not just science fiction nor is it just laboratory work there are actually startup companies being put up all over the world uh particularly in the Middle East in Europe in North America with the intent to commercialize some of these Technologies and what that bodes for the future is the potential to actually have companies that sell carbon credits from their negative emissions operations and that can be traded for example across National boundaries and the Philippines needs to be prepared for that what we may refer to as a future carbon drawdown economy well let me switch briefly to this sort of research that I've done in negative emissions I work in an area known as process systems engineering and in particular I've developed a an extensive body of work on carbon management networks using different Computing techniques which goes back to almost uh an initial work that dates back to 2005. and that has led to some significant accolades and recognition of the carbon manager carbon management work being done in the Philippines but on a global stage including for example uh recognition by the institution of chemical engineers in the United Kingdom or some of the work in carbon management since 2020 I've worked with colleagues both locally and in other parts of Asia and the European Union to consider how these Computing techniques can be brought to bear on the problem of scaling up negative emissions Technologies and what we need to point out here is on a global scale we're not talking about thousands of tons of CO2 we're not even talking about millions of tons it needs to be in the billions of tons of CO2 for it to be significant in the global climate change mitigation efforts and if we were to look at the Philippines that needs to be in the millions of tons scale or at least tens of millions of tons for it to make a dent in our annual greenhouse gas emissions and to scale this up to that level really presents significant engineering challenges so let me just illustrate what that means I'm just if we take enhanced weathering as an example that is a technique where you take silicates for example a common Rock such as Basalt can be polarized to the fineness of cornstarch and you could actually apply that on agricultural land as shown on screen normally that's done for pH adjustment in the soil but that actually as we've seen that captures CO2 and it's estimated that the potential globally runs into the billions of tons per year of CO2 ignitions reduction so that is significant it's about 10 percent of global emissions at the moment so it is significant from the global perspective a year ago I did a webinar on this so you may want to listen in if you follow the QR code but the problem you see is not just the chemistry and the physics of it but when we scale this up to the point where we need millions of tons of CO2 to be captured that means moving millions of tunnels of rocks from where the powder is produced that means we take the rocks from the quarries we grind it to a fine powder and then distribute it to various application sites which should be selected and optimized for example based on rainfall and other weather conditions so in 2019 we created the first optimization model to address this issue we've also applied other Computing techniques such as pinch analysis and we've considered alternative transportation modes including aircraft trains Pipelines to be able to map out these carbon management networks as we call them so that's part of the engineering toolbox which potentially can scale up these techniques to the point where it's significant and we've worked with colleagues just not too far north from where we are in Taiwan we looked at um iron production waste then we computed that in Taiwan that potentially can capture two million tons per year of carbon dioxide just using one kind of Industrial Waste and of course working with the colleagues from mainland China where you've seen that using various kinds of Industrial Waste just in one region again millions of tons potentially of CO2 emissions can be reduced can be removed from the national inventory but that still needs to be done in the Philippines now as we proceed towards the end of this overview I will give a bit of a preview of our panel Dr Bea Belmonte who's with the University of Santa Tomas has done extensive work dating back to 2016 when she was a PhD student on using biochar as a means to capture CO2 and to generate negative emissions and within the context also of agricultural systems so that you get co-benefits from scaling this up a next engineer Amigo samagang who is currently in the finishing stages of her PhD has worked on optimizing negative emissions portfolios not just for the Philippines but for Southeast Asia and that means really given the constraints of any region or country if you have a set of options available to you before the investment decisions are made we need computer models to figure out how best through put resources into this carbon dioxide removal Enterprise and this is why the work that she's been doing is dedicated to portfolio optimization and Dr John Frederick Tapia has worked recently on decision analysis techniques again not just for figuring out how individual negative emissions Technologies perform but if you had a list of options with different criteria and you don't know precisely how they might perform in the future you would still need to make decisions as to which ones to prioritize for research and development for deployment and such and he's developed Computing techniques to address these challenges so as I proceed to the end of this orientation these are the research issues that carbon dioxide removal presents for the local and for the global scientific communities number one is there is a bit of a climate emergency and we need to scale up these techniques but at the same time they're subject to various Technical and economic uncertainties then we need to identify possible unintended consequences and ripple effects because there will always be strings attached and price to pay for scaling up even a seemingly innocuous technique such as afforestation we need to contend with natural resource limitations including land area precipitation level biodiversity concerns and such negative emissions of course will be part of a larger carbon management strategy for any given region or country and that includes for instance exploring non-fossil fuel based electricity production for instance more Renewables nuclear energy has been discussed in the context of the Philippines and all of these techniques have to be part of a larger portfolio of climate change mitigation strategies and then there are the soft issues not just the physical sciences but social acceptability the legal and Regulatory framework across National boundaries we have the issue of geopolitics climate Justice for instance the the ongoing discussion on to what extent should developing countries be responsible or should we contribute to Global efforts to reach net zero emissions and the bottom line of course is the economics CDR is not going to happen by itself how do we put a price tag on this and who pays for who we put this on corporations the citizens who benefit ultimately from CDR governments of course that is a discussion that needs to take place in the future but in conclusion I just want to make three points if we look at the physics and the chemistry of greenhouse gas emissions there is no doubt that negative emissions will be needed to achieve Net Zero by the middle of the century we've seen and we've proven through recent work that models can help facilitate the rapid scale up of negative emissions Technologies to the level that we need them within just a few decades and these have implications for the Philippines not just the rest of the world number one a national carbon neutrality Target needs to be discussed it needs to be said and this is really part of being in solidarity with the rest of the world based on managing our common atmosphere number two is the Philippines will need an optimized decarbonization roadmap to implement any such pledge that is made so first is a top level Target and then the actual details of how to do it which could include decarbonization of our electricity but it will probably include some form of CDR through appropriate techniques and thus given the constraints of this country given the development given demographic and economic trends then we need to identify viable net options and strategies so that these can be the subject of research development and policy decisions in the very near future thank you and good morning I look forward to engaging all of you in deeper discussion later this morning for that overview now at this point we'll start with the panel discussion on the research and development of negative emission Technologies our first panelist is Dr Beatrice Del Monte the assistant professor of the chemical engineering department of the University of Santa Tomas she graduated with a degree of doctor philosophy in chemical engineering at Dallas University she is also a scholar under the erdt program of the Department of Science and Technology her work focuses on developing computer models providing decision support for the use of carbonized biomass as a social enhancer and as a form of carbon sequestration this strategy this strategy is regarded in the literature as a potentially effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emission she also has done research among Scopes index publication in major in major journals which have received a combination of 106 citations and her current age index score is six in addition her paper optimization based decision support methodology for the synthesis of negative emissions monitor systems has been globally recognized and listed among the 31 Publications featured in the UK ikemi climate change collection last June 2020. she was one of the 35 accepted Scholars among 210 applicants that attended the 2020 Southeast Asia International joint research and training program on low carbon energy held at National Ching Hua University she was awarded the best scientific poster award during the last 42nd annual scientific meeting last July 2020. she's
a member of the editorial board of carbon in search she is also a reviewer of sustainable chemical process design Journal of cleaner production yhr education for chemical engineers and clean Technologies and environmental policy she has recently been elected as a full member of the Philippine American Academy of Science and Engineering she's also a regular member and presently serves as the secretary of the nrcp division of engineering and Industrial Research she teaches engineering and is also a resident researcher at the research center for the natural and applied sciences of the University of Santa Tomas Dr Belmonte the virtual floor is now yours thank you very much for the very nice introduction I would like to thank Nas for inviting me in this negative emission technology so again good morning everyone my presentation for the day uh focuses on the role of my child climate change meditation and how it can be implemented on a logical basis within of mathematical model my presentation is divided into four parts a show I will begin with the brief introduction about the recent climate information and logical by Travis carbon's illustration as a negative emission strategy to address climate exchange that I will continue to discuss the modeling framework I developed for biographies carbon management networks which includes some results of the free studies I will end my presentation with the conclusion and prospects for future I will also show uh some of my papers for further reads let me begin with the introduction it is well known that climate change is one of the major environmental crises that on the world is facing and the recent information on climate reveals that carbon dioxide emissions are rapidly recovery after a temporary deviation from its normal Trend due to the economic slowdown possibly the pandemic and greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continuous record levels and we are still significantly off schedule to meet the course of the price available and considering that time is running out and fiber impacts are becoming uh inescapable there is a need for all countries to commit to Natural emissions by advantages and um ultimately one of the biggest incentives from major economies to tackle this climate crisis is to avoid the long-term impacts or costs associated with its impacts it is quite remarkable that in European Union 27 countries probably last year on the first ever European Union prime minister which means that they are all buying themselves to becoming neutral by 23. this is a legal obligation for the 27 member states of the European Union China as well has pledged to make Richmond activity and all major multinational corporations such as Nestle have also committed to zero our emissions it is a good thing in the political framework has been said to significantly describe on emissions the next challenge is engineering the carbon program there is a need for the deployment of this Technologies as shown to meet the targets of the virus agreement a negative emission technologies have received substantial attention and apple papers have been published since 2018 which provide qualitative and valuable assessment of their potential environment mitigation negative emissions from buyer application to land has fewer disadvantages compared to other detention Technologies and can potentially reduce emissions by around 0.9 to 3 gigators of carbon dioxide but how can budget help mitigate climate change of course we all know know that a carbon can be stored in soil as crop residuals produce but crop residuals usually oxidized into carbon dioxide and are released into the atmosphere we development Olympians and the lifetime of poverty numerals is typically less than 25 years when the body mass is instant viralized a stable solid problem is produced that largely consists of a repositor and carbon fraction with a half-life of a few centuries in soil and the Carbon Beach product is called bichar when it is stored below the ground for long-term removal of atmospheric direct demonstration in Bachelor probably beneficial secondary effects can potentially mitigate 130 dividends carbon over the course of the century and this is obviously an amount that can significantly contribute in achieving lesser emissions however there are implications that also need to do such as land bother and not that good breeds that come with the private candidates during its allergic and deployment there may also be adverse impacts visor is naturally alkaline and contains a macro nutrients and unfortunately potential contaminants now the potential release of this contaminants is possible since body charts are often prepared from a variety of stuff including waste materials and putting too much vital and soil May attachment quality unexpected robots may also just release of potential contaminants present in by HR over supplied nutrients and excessive increase in its own image now having in mind the promising benefits in an intended consequences of large application to soil how can we often be deployed by sure to maximize the benefits and overcome potential disadvantages there will surely be a need for an important toolbox that we can use Traffic systems engineering in the development of a modeling framework to support decisions for specific type of problems now these papers are shown discuss the Imaging role of process systems engineering in the proper deployment of bioservice carbon management purpose computer-aided planning of orbital service carbon management networks will be needed to maximize uh greater sales reductions while minimizing any potential um adverse environmental impacts and these models can help decision makers to understand and optimize the cost-benefit aspect of such a systems to accelerate through commercial deployment let us now move on to the modeling framework I developer the promising resource of budget application to soil can be potentially optimized through bioter-based carbon management platforms with the aid of mathematical programming and in this world the turbine service carbon management networks is proposed to describe systems that are intended to strategically run carbon's illustration by a systematic reduction and allocation of biasures for long-term storage to agricultural lands and of course the simultaneously improved soil properties this study develops an optimization framework for bioter-based carbon management networks by accounting for relevant and practical aspects of vital research as shown this one is the first to integrate these aspects of vital registration in the systematic framework for the high level planning of large-scale by HR based carbon management let's start with the optimization model and developed for by HR based carbon management methods the first phase is the development of an optimization model for by HR based carbon management networks our objective MLP model is developed For the synthesis of vulture networks with profit and purpose illustration estimating functions and the model calculates the optimal allocation of biochar such that they're prescribed limits for the contaminants are met since I I mentioned about it by interactive potential contaminants also different variables parameters and constraints Incorporated to account for the compatibilities of financial sources and things and to allow for control of virtual characteristics so the advisor can be customized to address um specific soil quality requirements the illustrative case studies Theory demonstrates the applicability of the model and a case studies given here that represents Central Houston region in the Philippines and a time frame of 10 years for operational time of 10 years let us now discuss some results the trailer between carbon's illustration and profitability is depicted in the figure and each point here correspond to a particular by transversing Network let us choose a representative example saying that word a the table gives the optimum amount of buyer allocated for each scene coming from each Source in the network the first and second values of each cell show that the device allocation during the first two years and last ages of population are respectedly and the model recommends blending of low an hybrid by HRV during the 10 year time frame so it's not placed in the limit prescribed and as you can see here 919 drums per ton is less than 1000 500 grams per ton of sodium which is the limit prescribed for sodium now the effect of analysis is temperature and carbon sequestration and profit Community is also investigated and the figure shows the trade or between common sequestration and profitability for the different values of analysis temperature and it can be seen in the figure that as the temperature decreases the system-wide we have carbon sequestration and profitability decreases let us again just a representative example say networking the result of network a is shown in the table and um everything has distinct Circle and characteristics advisor can be customized in order to keep soil certain cell conditions and for instance the amount of contaminant blueprints as well as the level of alkalinity advisor can vary depending on the paralysis temperature um in which the BIOS 300 degree Celsius is 1217 kilograms per year during the final interest of operation which is within the range of phosphorus application rate or for uh Sim 3.
now the generation of their Optimal Solutions are then conducted in a certain phase of study the generation of the Optimal Solutions um emerges as a significant Paradigm for a systems synthesis and decision makers are likely to favor such an approach over the analysis of a single optimal solution given the uncertainty of the planning process your Optimal Solutions or alternative allocation networks are generated by additional individual constraints in the original mathematical problem formulation and such new Optimal Solutions are important for a practical decision making because this their Optimal Solutions can be tested for robustness and inspiration in bioter Supply due to price factors that may arise such as changes in agriculture and PVP and the information gathered is analyzed to select a network for Implement page and since the 13th episode like people oblique of the sources can exist the different networks generated were then tested for robustness using multicolonial simulation and a given network is set to build in the excess Supply capacity of any Source becomes negative that is if the system impairs any uh bioter subtitles the summary of the resource is shown in the table it can be seen that the optimal network will experience a high probability of failure this result means that even though the optimization was designed to be conservative by assuming the lower estimate for display capabilities of the sources there is still a 22.9 chance or percent chance that first that first will not be able to meet the target allocations for the things based on the design and likewise there is also a 17.8 percent chance that Source tree will not be able to meet the target allocation for the sake based on this side however alternatively some optimal networks want to entry were much less likely to fail we'll probably be of encouraging Supply the visit of not more than 3.2 percent in the third phase an optimization model for the biotron sources was developed this face of the study built with the production of customized buyers to address specific cell body limitations and this is a novel application area of process systems engineering research that is also addressed in this work just based on the study demonstrates the synthesis of public generation Energy System that produces different bits of bi-sharp alongside the energy panels for profit maximization and as you can see in the previously by analysis units that generate by HRS with different specifications are integrated in the system and the resulting to take great buyers can address specific soil quality requirements is that this table shows the proposed framework for matching different ways of bike shop produced from the body generation system to amend specific soil probability and the type of soil and the type of designer by which are suitable to amend specific soil probability are indicated for example if the type of soil is a city then the cell property the field modification is so pH and if the biomass that will be used to produce military strikes caused spirals at 600 degrees Celsius then this uh Rises by HR can increase soil pH the corresponding configuration of the optimized polygeneration system is given in the figure and as can be seen the steam or water div exchanger is a student in the optimal solution the outputs of the following generation system are shown specifically the different rates of biosure now the generated near Optimal Solutions are presented alongside the optimum solution in the paper and the installation of the three paralysis units in all solutions results in a carbon footprint of negative 65.84 kilogram per second or 1.9 Mega tons of
carbon dioxide per year due to the production of diet chart and meanwhile it is notable to mention that the fourth best solution is only a 0.6 percent lower in profit compared to the optimal solution and the complexities less than with the exclusion of hot water generator and electrical again uh this result demonstrates that a minimal differences may not feel significant implication so that the selection of the solution for final implementation may be based from other criteria that have not been counted in the mathematical model for the conclusions and Prospect for future work another framework has been developed that provides a sustainable strategy to either proper deployment of bioter Base problem management networks to contribute to climate mitigation it generates useful insights that can guide policy making such as incentivization of commercial steel vital service carbon management networks the framework is comprised of component mathematical models that capture the Salient features orbital research is currently ambition in the literature and looking at the bigger picture this workers served as the core for the development of more complex formulations in the future as a state of knowledge involves future work and focus on normal data and position methods for the sources and things for further readings this is my recent published uh book chapter here is our list of publication a suggested reading this paper was recently submitted to artificial intelligence journal and is currently under review this paper uh developed a rule-based model for the prediction of changes in surveillance success due to large application with the aid of rough set based machine learning thank you very much for your attention thank you very much to share our insights is our second invited panelist engineer Maria Victoria Victoria is an assistant professor at the University of the Philippines she is a recipient of the academic achievement award during her Master's in the income engineering degree from ubld University if you say registered associate asean engineer and an associate member of the national research concept of students she has published peer-reviewed journals on the rice stuff or buyer energy is life cycle assessment as well as other book chapters on sustainable dry straw management her current research involves the application of process integration to negative emission Technologies portfolio for a systems level of loop on these Technologies she has published peer-reviewed journals on this topic and co-authored a correspondence article in nature computational science about Computing optimal and easy portfolios she currently has a total of 205 citations with an H index of 8. she was awarded multiple best posters and best presentations for her research on an ET performance engineering the virtual floor is now yours good morning everyone thank you for the introduction let me share my screen okay I'm Maria Victoria migosomagang and I will share my research on any peace or sometimes I call it nets for short particularly on Multi footprint optimization of net portfolios as Professor 10 mentioned part of the climate change mitigation should come from Nets and I just want to emphasize that there are two motivations behind Nets one is biophysical and the other is economical biophysical because the conventional approaches are not enough we are way past the point wherein we can reach net zero emissions by conventional approaches alone economical because immediate and full decarbonization will also be unlikely recently we had the cop 26 or the Glasgow climate map and the term that they used is facing down rather than facing out cold especially for the growing markets of China and India hence Nets will be needed to remove the residual emissions especially in the energy sector in fact the recent ipcc report into 2022 just this year officially included Nets in the list of strategies and they stated as Professor 10 mentioned that Nets are needed to counterbalance the hard to Abate emissions from the difficult to decarbonize Industries including Aviation heavy transport even agricultural steel and cement Industries but what are the challenges in implementing large-scale Nets Nets have different features they have environmental Footprints and will consume resources such as land water energy nutrients and even budget to deliver negative emissions in large scales they can even exceed the planetary boundaries these are the recommended safe operating space for land use water use Etc biomass based Nets like afforestation and beccs have wide ranging effects on biogeochemical cycles and the mismanagement and poor implementation of these nets may impact the water quality food production biodiversity and even livelihoods let's have temporal limitations as well they vary in technological Readiness or the time when the technology will be ready for implementation some technologies can be implemented earlier like afforestation and soil carbon sequestration but some will be scaled up by mid-century like direct air capture but the deployment of Nets is urgent facilities also have lifespans and operating hours biological Nets have sync saturation like when forests reach their maturity and they stop absorbing carbon dioxide Nets also have either trade-offs or synergistic interactions so synergistic interactions when they consume fewer resources when implemented together for example the application of biochar and enhanced weathering rocks on the same site may share the supply chain and may have a positive impact on the cost they may also be applied to the land growing biomass so that they consume less fertilizer because they can act as soil enhancers emerging Technologies such as direct air capture are subject to uncertainties in performance and cost and because no single net can sustainably deliver the required negative emissions net portfolios at smaller scales are needed so to consider all of these aspects in the large-scale deployment there is a need to simulate object minimize design select and rank Nets whether individually or as a portfolio process systems engineering can support the designing and planning on net off net systems and studies on Nets under this framework are available in the literature here are some of the process system engineering works on Nets including the works of Dr Belmonte Dr Tapia and Professor tan so some techniques various techniques such as speech analysis mathematical programming and P graphs have been applied to Nets since 2013 and most of these Studies have focused on the cost and carbon footprint optimization and not the multi-foodprint optimization and consideration of time aspects is also very rare similar with integrated assessment models these Technologies are implemented separately rather than in combination or in portfolios and this is where my research fills in the knowledge Gap the aim of my research is to develop multi-footprint optimization models using process system engineering techniques for the large-scale deployment of net portfolios considering multi-footprints temporal constraints synergies and uncertainties or the aspects that I mentioned earlier and since there is a Time aspect this concrete for both economic and carbon carbon value were also considered the output of this work are Optimum net portfolios throughout the 21st century the next slides will show the research dissemination that we did so far on it the first one is a single period model that minimizes the cost of a Nets portfolio while meeting a Target negative emissions and resource constraints using global scale data we also did a sensitivity analysis one interesting observation is that let me zoom in on this part as the target negative emission is increased the portfolio ships from just have first just having biochar and enhanced weathering to including direct air capture and the extent of direct air capture needed increases as the target negative Inc emissions increases so by the way if you are interested in any of these papers I included the link and the QR code and so far all of these are open access the next one is interesting as well this time we considered synergistic interactions in the optimization model using San data and this study has shown that considering the synergies in the cost and land use resulted in better Solutions in the sense that there is a higher negative emissions potential at lower cost or lower land use so the previous two papers I showed you mathematical programming as the technique in the optimization the current slide uses a graphical technique called the marginal abatement cost or Mac curves and they involve plotting multiple mitigation options on rectangular coordinates with cumulative abatement as the horizontal axis and marginal abatement costs as the vertical axis the options are arranged in increasing Max such that for any given marginal thresh called the corresponding cumulative abatement that meet the threshold can be readily determined and easily communicated to decision makers but for this paper we replace the cost with environmental Footprints such as land use in this case but using the same concept as Mac curves the publication for this work will be released in December this year we also presented a multi-period model as a poster entry in this year's Nest scientific poster session this time considering time constraints I put the link and the QR code if you are interested to view the poster in detail but probably the most interesting study for this forum is the preliminary Philippine case study that we presented this year the Philippines May benefit from negative emissions due to our economic and energy growth we are also rich in for Agricultural and Forest residues which can serve as feedstock for byhr and beccs and in terms of geological storage we have over 23 gigatons carbon dioxide storage capacity available in our ceiling aquifers another options another option is using alkaline wastes as a byproduct from industry or mining wastes for enhanced weathering one barrier though is that for energy intensivenets they have to use renewable energy to ensure ensure net negative emissions however the Philippines have currently limited renewable energy luminary results show that a positive Net Present Value is obtained when we put a price on carbon and the Philippines May benefit when the more technological ready and cheaper options like afforestation reforestation and biocharp are deployed immediately while the less technologically ready and energy intensive options like enhanced weathering and direct air capture are deployed in the near future so this is just a preliminary study we need more Philippine specific data for the footprints costs and resource constraints let me quickly share this slide about the asean Net Zero commitment for South South East Asia 8 out of 10 countries have Net Zero targets excluding Myanmar and the Philippines our current commitment is a 75 conditional reduction in our business as usual emissions and we have not yet committed to net zero emissions in any case the country May benefit from negative emission Technologies and I mentioned about putting a price on carbon the current U.S carbon price is around 51 US dollars per ton carbon dioxide but it varies from region to region for example in the European Union they have a different carbon price so to give you a picture of what is happening today many companies are targeting net zero emissions and one way they do this is by by buying offsets some of which come from negative emissions most popularly through afforestation and reforestation projects but more and more companies are investing in direct air capture prod projects so there is already a market for this companies that are buying and selling carbon credits and independent companies that are verifying these carbon credits using Nets and starting a carbon market May open opportunities for the Philippines to trade carbon internationally as offsets and credits however strong policies are needed to ensure that there is a true environmental benefit from all of these activities to summarize and conclude Nets can be used to biophysically and economically achieve Net Zero the large-scale implementation of Nets is challenged by multi-footprints time constraints uncertainties trade-offs and synergies my research is the application of process systems engineering techniques to Nets portfolios for a systems level outlook on these Technologies any initial results using Global and asean scale were disseminated in the literature a preliminary Philippine case study was conducted the country May benefit from negative emissions but more Philippine specific data is needed and strong policies are needed to ensure through environmental benefit thank you very much to nest for this opportunity comments and questions are welcome or you may also email me to this email address thank you very much now foreign is an associate professor in the chemical engineering department of State University he is a graduate of PhD in chemical engineering engineering at the National University and how they post doctoral research in University of 2018 to 2019. it was an irct scholar from 2012 to 2017. as an early career
researcher his research interests include process systems engineering for low carbon and resistance mathematical modeling of biomass value chain specifically oil palm value chain geographical information system based analysis of suitable lands for oil pump his expertise is on applications of neutral sufficients in process systems engineering and decision analysis specifically on data environment analysis and mathematical programming for process synthesis it was awarded as one of the outstanding young scientists in 2020 2022 in the field of chemical engineering currently he has 37 scopus index published works with an age index of those hey thank you very much Ivan for that introduction let me share my screen okay so well many of the introductions are already um um provided by the the two panelists and uh Professor tan earlier so my presentation would just be mainly on my the uh my work uh specifically on ranking evaluating and selection of negative emissions Technologies using a novel Technique we call nutrosophic data envelopment analysis so this paper was actually or this method was actually developed around um 20 um late 2019 then um the work was published around day 2020. so and to give you an overview of what I will be discussing it's it's really about the um the negative image of different Technologies specifically the Nets um in which I um they are ranked selected and evaluated based on the method of data and development analysis so this is actually an um the paper actually presents a novel framework for modeling the uncertainty uncertainties uh and it also propose a new method Based on data and development analysis and then finally the selection was applied to negative emissions Technologies so this actually gave Insight on which technology can be preferred more than the other depending on the how the expert uh perceived risk in terms of the selection so the the ranking might change from one expert to another but um there is also actually proved that there are certain negative emission Technologies here that are more flexible or more preferred at a certain range of risk behavior so in this study I um I technically applied or rank or select and evaluated um six negative emissions Technologies so what are the Nets up for evaluation well um to give you an idea on how the decision framework was done um there are six negative emissions technologies that were used to rank uh here one is the direct air capture technology uh by energy with ccs uh Forest Station deforestation cell carbon technology uh cell carbon sequester if not by HR and enhanced weathering um all of which were discussed earlier and the decision is actually divided into two sets of criteria the first one is the criteria that we prefer to be as low as possible like environmental impacts and cost while the other set is something that we prefer to be as high as possible like Readiness level or potential capacity and with this kind of um criteria we will be able to apply what we call a data envelopment analysis there so the framework actually use success or Aggregates the output criteria by finding a set of optimal weights in which the out the aggregated output divided by the aggregated input is what we call the technical efficiency so um in a classical approach in data and development analysis the technical efficiency is maximized subject to each of the negative or each of the other Technologies must have a technical efficiency of no more than one so um the approach maximizes the weights or outside finds a set of Weights subject to no no technical efficiency should be more than one and the data development analysis approach is an optimization framework uh perform for each of the um technology then it it is extended or the input and the output criteria criteria was extended to something like the inputs and the outputs are not are what we call neutral sulfic in nature so to explain it briefly on the uh for inputs we want it to be as low as possible so in this case the satisfaction decreases as the input level increases and the reverse happens so the output where it increases as the uh the satisfaction increases as the uh output levels increases but there's also another component of neutral suffix that's what we call the and the dissatisfaction wherein it increases as uh input level increases and the reverse for the output now in this case it represents something that um that can be adjusted in which at a certain possible or a range of a possible input levels um a certain expert may be a bit or maybe a bit more satisfied at a certain value meaning even if it is totally unsatisfied in this at the the uppermost level or if the satisfaction is very window at a higher level if the dissatisfaction is somewhat decoupled from that of the uh the satisfaction level and the third component is actually um the degree of attainability or uncertainty whether this level can be achieved so the higher or the more efficient it is the it is assume that it's um harder to achieve so incorporating those um considerations makes up the neutral Suffic data envelopment analysis and there are two parameters here that is at the tolerance for dissatisfaction and tolerance for indeterminacy um that can be adjusted depending on the expert level of uh perception to risk and so applying the the tool from the uh from what uh applying the tool from indifferent this tolerance level changing from one decision environment to another um we actually produce this result in the stable so if we just have a fuzzy data and development analysis tool and we cannot really differentiate the um the performance because each of this this Technologies has its own advantages over the other or say for example um the AC might be a much higher cost but um some other Technologies can be of highlandput than footprint so we cannot really differentiate at this kind of decision environment however as it progresses there is a certain uh preference of one technology than the other like direct air capture is really um stands really stands out that the intuitionistic policy approach while it becomes at the lowest uh part of the lower uh at the uh a completely nutrasophic or um uh decision environment wherein the expert are not tolerant with uh with the rest so in that case we can perform sensitivity analysis by parrying the risk parameters and then we will be able to produce different results a different um risk parameters in that case we will be able to um with different Technologies based on their best funds um for for the for this for the data that we have for the uh using the tool um the the one of the general insights we can have here is that the direct air capture by energy with ccs and the policies are quite a good option because of their robustness or uh robustness in terms of the uh their technical efficiency at different um risk levels and so uh with the sensitivity analysis these are the these are the um the insights that we have the AC is sufficient if a policy makers would encourage to improve that um um technology perfectly as demonstrated in uh in the tool um then there are other options which has uh robustness or the the ranking are on the top Hub of the sixth Technologies and these are beccs um well carbon sequestration and in that piece it total buses in terms of ranking applying risk perceptions uh biochair also needs simple but considering the three elements it is better than air capture as shown in this table and finally enhanced rendering needs to be improved so that it would be more competitive than the other so well um for this for the for this uh paper um I um developed tool which is first apply the negative emissions Technologies and the results we built different responses of like um that's in terms of ranking uh depending on how the expert perceives the risk under it so let me go back to my second slide here which if you want to know the details of the the work um you can find it on uh from this link or you can actually scan this um QR