中國間諜氣球 引爆美中緊張神經 俄羅斯也在其中? 為何中國人如韭菜般命運 兩千年來一再重演？@democraticTaiwanChannel
Hello everyone, welcome to Watch China at the Frontline of Politics and Economics without code . I am the host Zhang Honglin. Thank you again for watching our show . Now that the officials on both sides are yelling at each other , and the people are even yelling at each other, they can’t settle down over this matter . Of course, it has also aroused a very large international discussion . Everyone is very curious about how this will affect the relationship between the United States and China , but many people may not know it. I know that
this is not only the relationship between the United States and China , but also the relationship between the United States, China and Russia. It may all have some changes because of this incident. So today we will discuss the development of this spy balloon for the follow-up.
We are very happy We invited Mr. Ming Juzheng, an honorary professor from the Department of Politics at National Taiwan University, to help us analyze it. Hello , Mr. Ming, and Mr. Honglin, the host. Hello, everyone . It was the teacher who just mentioned the case of the spy balloon. Now of course it is As it got worse and worse , Blinken also canceled some of his trips to visit China . Some people even said that this is very serious . It may lead to the possibility of a war between the United States and China. Is there such a possibility? Teacher, let me clarify first. Just now, you said that Blinken canceled his visit . The U.S. officials said that we are postponing
, postponing, and postponing the arrangements for him until an appropriate time. This means that we have not said that we want to cancel , so we have left a tail. Simply put, we have left a life. Come on, the question you just asked is that some people said that there will be a war or something. It should be like this. If there are no accidents, it probably won’t make it to that point.
Why do we wait for a while and talk about it slowly? Probably the first and second levels are if there is no If you get to that point , it will not be like what some people say, they are declaring war, probably not. Some people say that they have entered a state of quasi-war , and they probably haven’t yet . The hostility between the two sides is increasing . It is clear. Some Americans even feel that this is another 911 because 911 is a terrorist who flew a plane and crashed into a building in the United States and suffered heavy casualties . Now of course this one did not cause casualties , but you feel that you are the first to be watched by others, so I remember. There is a well-known anchor. It seems that he said that you think about it . One day you go to the street to walk your dog , and there is a spy balloon in the sky watching you . You think it is strange , so some people feel very uncomfortable. But what you said just now is very correct. It may not only happen between the United States and China . It may appear in the triangle relationship between the United States, China and Russia.
If this is the case, I think everyone will be curious and ask for advice. Teacher , why does this seem to be a struggle between the United States and China ? What is the reason why it has something to do with Russia ? Because I remember that we talked about this issue in the past. We are talking about a little bigger international issue . I’m afraid. I’m afraid they are not alone , so what does that mean? That is, if anything happens internationally , as long as a major country is involved , then if this major country is interested in intervening, it may trigger other major countries to intervene . The first level and the second level if there is only one major country in the world It’s fine if there is only one big country. If there are two or more big
countries, and these two or more big countries happen to be in a state of confrontation, then it is not necessarily a war. It is a state of confrontation or a state of tension . When this country intervenes in this way, that country may It will intervene in this way, so first, it is not so simple . Second, we have talked about it on the program for several years in the past, and we have been reminding everyone that at this time, international politics has a main axis , and this main axis is the confrontation between the United States and China . Military technology and other aspects are confronting each other. Well, what about this confrontation? Of course , you don’t tell the result immediately because it’s not a war, so the confrontation , or the two sides try to weaken each other and strengthen themselves , so it will be a relatively long period. Process.
For example, the U.S.-Soviet confrontation has been going on for nearly half a century , and the Soviet Union collapsed after more than 40 years. So now the U.S.-China confrontation , people say that we are not a cold war . If the original main axis was US-China confrontation , then the Russo-Ukraine war suddenly came in to interfere with the original process. I remember we talked about it in the past . The first is the original role of Russia, which is a happy third person. He took advantage of every corner
, but he miscalculated one thing . He thought that the United States and China had neither the strength nor the time to control him in the face of fierce confrontation, so he could use this opportunity to meddle with Ukraine , and then even take advantage of you not paying attention to me . I ate most of it or the whole thing , but I didn’t expect this incident . It stimulated everyone’s nerves. Everyone thought that if you said this, you would destroy the international order. If I didn’t stop you, you would really become Hitler . So everyone resisted He was a little surprised by this , but the result of the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war was that the tension between the United States and China was somewhat diluted , so we have reminded everyone in the past that he still knows that the United States still has a clear memory in his head. The CCP is my biggest enemy and I want it the most. Pay attention to the CCP
, but now the problem of Russia is still burning . I must put out this fire, lest the eyebrows burn out , so I have to put out this fire. The logic of the United States is that I want to fight two . I can win both, but it is more difficult to fight two, so I To avoid two-front warfare, to avoid two-front warfare is to avoid two-front warfare . If I am now doing my best to deal with Russia, I hope that the CCP will not cause me trouble . This is a simple logic , that is, I just said to avoid two-front warfare. As we said, the relationship is already very tense , the two sides are in fierce competition , and the overall political, economic, diplomatic and cultural aspects are in competition . Well , now that Russia is here to intervene , the idea of the United States is that it is best to resolve the Russian issue as soon as possible. out of nowhere Then I will go back to my main issue, that is, what I really care about is the comprehensive competition between the CCP and me.
We have also told you in the past that the confrontation between the United States and China has been structured. The so-called structure means that it has been solidified . It is difficult to have anything. Changes Then I am fighting against Russia again here, and the confrontation with the CCP has solidified here. I am now trying to find a way to cool down. The relationship between major powers is not always tense. Even when the confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union was so fierce , there was still a relaxation in the middle. At one point, that is, the interaction between major powers is one piece of one piece , one piece of one piece, one piece of one piece, and then finally, slowly smoothing out or weakening the other side.
Russia thinks the same about the U.S. The Soviet Union thinks the same about the U.S. The U.S. thinks the same about the Soviet Union. Well, in the end the Soviet Union was dragged down , and now the CCP is here. The logic of the U.S. is still the same. Here comes a Russian problem. The United States avoids fighting on two fronts , so the United States hopes that the Russian problem may seem almost the same now.
I hope that you will not add trouble to me on the CCP side , so our relationship is tense . I know you know it too, and everyone will see it. Inside , let ’s take a break . Let’s cool down a little bit now. What’s more, the economic and trade relationship between our two sides is so close and the economic and trade interdependence is so high . You said that in the past three years, the epidemic situation has been severe and the trade between the two sides has also decreased. If you look carefully at last year’s trade figures, the trade volume between the United States and China last year was Did you say that sanctions do not produce this effect? Sanctions have an effect. If
you look at the figures in that sub-item carefully, you will know that the US -China high-tech trade and semiconductor trade have declined , but other trade volumes have increased. So that thing was covered again , so the degree of economic and trade interdependence between the United States and China has declined in the high-tech sector , but it has increased in other sectors , and the trade volume has increased. What is worse is that the US deficit with China has continued to expand . So this That’s what we said . You said that decoupling would not be easy . You said partial decoupling is possible. You said full decoupling is not possible . So Biden is him now because although its economy has improved slightly , it is not good enough to boast. So he still wants to boost the economy . To boost the economy , the trade between the United States and China must be heated up , that is, we have more trade here, but I hope to stop the deficit , and then I stop the flow of my high-tech products.
In the past, how do you balance this matter? Blinken visited mainland China, and he had some basic goals to see this . As a result, a balloon is almost messed up , so I think the decoupling is really very difficult as the teacher just mentioned. It’s difficult. Whether the United States can be completely decoupled . Maybe I don’t think it can be done right away . So it sounds like Biden may be very urgent. There must be some
internal real problems that must be solved . As a result , the spy balloon this time obviously Blinken , the trip to visit China was messed up , yes, that’s true, because you see Blinken just talked about it, and now it’s like this , the time is not right , what he means is that I’ll find another suitable time and we ’ll meet again Of course we know that it is Blinken who is going to mainland China this time. He is not just talking about US-China relations or anything . He probably wants to talk about two other big issues. I don’t think he can escape . The first one is the war between Russia and Ukraine. The question is, how will we end it in the future? Then what do you do with this? The first and second is the Taiwan Strait issue . Now we have been talking about the CCP’s use of Taiwan as a pawn to play with the United States . The important thing is to frighten the United States and make the United States feel like talking about Taiwan The Gulf issue is indeed a big rock between us , so how do you think of a way to remove the rock, how to solve this problem, etc. That is, the CCP wants to create an issue. Since this issue is created , the United States must also face it.
The United States does not mean that I drive this warship through the Taiwan Strait once a month, and this problem will be settled. So the United States has to find a way , that is, how can we build a guardrail or something , that is, in addition to the strategic relationship between the two sides, or something, etc., one is Ukraine. The second question is the issue of the Taiwan Strait. I am afraid that this is a must-discussed issue . Of course, the part we can understand is that it is inevitable to talk about some issues in the Taiwan Strait. However, some issues between Russia and Ukraine or Ukraine, to be honest . This is not the first time that the United States has mentioned it , and now the CCP also knows that the hostility has been told to him , especially the reason for the spy balloon. Since
, one thing they think, what the teacher just said is already structural , and the ruling and opposition parties are against the Chinese part. It ’s very clear, so why are we still talking about this Ukrainian issue? Let’s put it this way. It’s been almost a year since Ukraine fought the war. It’s been almost a year . It turns out that Ukraine has the upper hand . It’s been a bit of a downturn recently. Of course, you can also see that many countries in Europe are scrambling to provide tanks and weapons . Although the most elite parts may not have been provided , all countries have sent out Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks.
Then this A few days ago, Zelensky went to Europe again and made a lightning visit. He asked Europe for fighter jets. The United States is very conservative. The United States has always said that we probably will not give F-16 . The UK will let it go, right? The UK said that this matter can be considered , that is, it can be considered for advanced fighter jets, and for Ukraine . I think the biggest problem for Ukraine now is weapons . What is the second aspect? Its military strength is not enough . What is involved in the military strength? The problem of manpower , that is, didn’t you say that there are so many people who can fight ? There are 20 million men in the country , and about 10 million people of the right age for combat. You can’t use all of them to fight. Some have to farm and some have to work . They are on the front line , so don’t think that all these people can be used to fight.
That’s not the case . In other words, if Ukraine loses 100,000 people, its military strength will be greatly affected . So we now estimate that Ukraine feels tight. On the one hand, it is In terms of logistics and supply, the number of troops is indeed not enough . Now we see that Russia wants to recruit troops . Regardless of whether the soldiers are useful or not, they did recruit such a large manpower.
You put the manpower into it like this or something like a meat grinder . you If I am crushed badly , the other party will also be crushed badly . So this is the situation on the battlefield. So what is the United States thinking now? If I want to solve the Russian issue as soon as possible, then there will be no other assistance , but the United States seems to be catching up now. How many evidences have you seen? The first one is that you, the Chinese Communist Party , are indeed helping Russia, overtly or secretly. The Chinese Communist Party said that I did not help, and the Americans said that I have several evidences.
The first one is that you buy oil more expensive . Of course, the CCP can say that I am willing to be taken advantage of. How about you? You said that the international oil price is 35 yuan and 40 yuan per barrel , and I buy 80 yuan. Aid is economic aid in disguise . Everyone knows it well, but can you tell the truth? Frankly speaking , this is a bit embarrassing, right ? If he wants to talk about this matter , he is thinking about how to word it so that the CCP understands that you can’t go on like this . The first and second, didn’t he say a while ago that the United States sanctioned another CCP company? Then why? This company is a state-owned enterprise. As for the state-owned enterprise, the United States got the information that the CCP’s state-owned enterprise assisted the Russian army through channels and satellite information. For example, the Wagner Group seems to have provided them with satellite information and was later sanctioned . So this matter probably The United States is going to warn the CCP. The second thing is the third thing . Although Russia is still fighting hard , and the weapons are slowly starting to be cut off , they are not completely cut off, so the Americans wonder if there is a pipeline for flow . Some weapons were found after they went in. It seems
that a large number of wagons came in from North Korea . It’s just a railway train. This is the train. The trains and trains are sent in this way. Of course, you can see that things have passed from North Korea , but I guess the United States suspects North Korea . Probably not . So many things should be sent by the CCP to North Korea , and then North Korea sent it there. It probably took a while , so the United States has a reasonable doubt , that is, how to get the largest and fastest way to reduce Russia to the greatest extent, whether it is to obtain foreign finance or logistical equipment. That’s okay , even the aid in terms of weapons . So you said why you want to talk to the CCP. This is the second reason and the third reason is this.
If it develops in a favorable way, it should be said that the United States and European countries have seen the dawn of the war in Ukraine. The war is like this. Everyone thinks that the war is over and they are very happy . From the perspective of studying international politics, it is troublesome to start a war , and it is troublesome to end a war. Cleaning up the battlefield is also very troublesome. Cleaning up the battlefield is not just about cleaning or burying corpses . What is most important is
rebuilding the country and rebuilding its economy , rebuilding an economy that can function as a whole. What's more , as we have said in the past , Ukraine is an important exporter of raw materials and an important food exporter. China is an important exporting country of minerals . As you can see, wars have been fought in the past few years. Therefore, the foreign trade of Ukraine or the products exported have been greatly affected, which has a great impact on the international market. How do you rebuild this system ? This is very important. Well, that is one piece. After you rebuild the
second piece, you have to imagine what Russia will be like. Then, will the domestic situation in Russia be more turbulent? Do you want to stabilize it , or take advantage of the situation to speed up the cracking? To understand Russia , you have to consider . Third, if the situation in Russia is basically stable, then how to restore the local order in this area, that is, the local structure , that is, what relationship does Russia maintain with Ukraine, and what relationship does Russia maintain with NATO ? Sweden, Finland, Norway, and NATO next to Russia What kind of relationship do you maintain in various countries, especially the three Baltic countries? This place needs to be slightly adjusted . Of course, everyone is angry with him after the war. The question is whether everyone thinks that I want to rebuild relations with him . Of course, he angered us and then What has been banned , and the oil and gas embargoes have been embargoed , which made us very uncomfortable.
Now should I buy it again ? Then the pipeline, is the natural gas pipeline going to be reopened , and then what is it doing again ? So everyone is thinking about this Things are fine, so to be more specific, you need to rebuild Ukraine, which has been battered and riddled with holes. Well, who will rebuild it? Of course, the United States cannot monopolize it. Of course, the United States says that everyone will come. Don’t many countries in Europe provide a lot of arms aid? In fact, the possible idea is that I hope to get a share , that is, tell the United States that I can help. At the end of the fight, when it was very hard , I came to help. I didn’t help the front.
But later on, I will help without any credit or hard work , so I should be able to get a piece of the pie when rebuilding Ukraine . This is the worst way to say it, but from the perspective of international interests, you have to calculate this matter . Well, everyone will rebuild the United States . Of course, I hope that European countries will follow him to rebuild Ukraine , because after all, Ukraine is a big country with abundant resources. Well , the question is whether you want to get involved with the CCP. The CCP used to have a very good relationship with Ukraine . The CCP has a lot of high-tech military technologies. They were all bought from Ukraine, and even bought the whole team to dig it . Now you say that it has been rebuilt. Do you want to let the CCP participate in the reconstruction? If the CCP is very straightforward and helps the United States , then the United States can’t give it too much share in the reconstruction. At least, if you are not willing to help , how can I persuade you now , that is, you don’t want to help Russia, you stop , and then I will rebuild which piece you have Here, for example, what mines are there in Ukraine , what are the mines, what are the mines , what are the properties, etc.
What do you want, how much you want, and how much I can share with you, and how much I am willing to share with you , everyone has to calculate the whole, so I think Blinken this time Go, on the one hand , bilateral relations , and on the other hand, the Russo-Ukraine War , the reconstruction of the battlefield and the restoration of order . How do we talk about it ? Oh, although I mentioned earlier that the U.S. confrontation with the CCP has been structured , but it sounds like, in order to solve some problems in Ukraine, it may have to win over China to solve it together . Is Taiwan going to be left out again or may be betrayed? Won't If someone worries or doubts like this, someone will definitely say that , and you have no doubts. In fact, this statement is not just said today . Every time the relationship between the United States and China improves slightly, you will see so-called famous speakers on TV. You see, Taiwan is about to be betrayed , and the US-China relationship is reconciled. Let’s talk about this later. Let’s go back to our past on the show . I remember talking about this. In the eyes of Americans, what exactly is Taiwan is very important , because people in Taiwan are pro-communist people who always say that in the eyes of Americans, Taiwan is nothing . Yes, now it’s just either selling weapons to you , earning your money and cutting your leeks , or pushing you to go to the battlefield and serve as cannon fodder to help the Americans fight.
These are all nonsense. These are all nonsense . Take a closer look at the United States in the past few years. Compare this help to Taiwan with the actual policy towards Taiwan , and then add his speech . Now everyone has to realize that Taiwan is very important and basically indispensable in the minds of American politicians. Yes, it is
almost equivalent to the importance of the United Kingdom, Japan or mainstream European countries. Why is Israel so important? Let’s first look at the announcement. The United States has issued a provisional draft for this national security. In the national security white paper or national security blueprint, he has a considerable amount of space to discuss Taiwan, and the space he discusses about Japan is almost the same, and the space he discusses about Taiwan is almost the same.
There are three sentences to help define Taiwan . First, Taiwan is An important defense and security partner of the United States. Second , Taiwan is an important economic and trade partner of the United States. Third, Taiwan is an important democratic partner of the United States. That is to say , the importance of Taiwan has been affirmed from the three aspects of political economy and national security. The United States has probably only talked about Japan in recent years. The country only uses this kind of standard , and today it talks about Taiwan like this . It’s not random talk , it ’s not just random talk, why doesn’t it talk about South Africa , or talk about New Guinea, or something ? He specifically talks about Taiwan because he really sees the importance of Taiwan . People often say that Taiwan has the Holy Mountain of Protecting the Country, but everyone has not figured it out.
Taiwan ’s semiconductor industry today may be a little bit smaller. Taiwan ’s chips are equivalent to the United States. Because of the importance of Middle East oil to the United States back then , that’s the thing. If the United States did not have Middle East oil, its economy would not be able to operate . Now, if the United States does not have Taiwan chips, its economy cannot operate and it cannot win a war.
So you are right. He said, is Taiwan not important? Of course it is important. Those people in Taiwan have talked about it here , which is really nonsense, so we are talking about it. First, Taiwan is so important to the United States. Second, we just mentioned that the confrontation between the United States and the CCP has been structured. It has been solidified . The so-called solidification means that change is very difficult. You said that visiting the relationship between the two sides will improve . It is impossible. Then the confrontation of politics, economy, diplomacy, military technology, and science and technology can be resolved with just one visit.
It will not be so easy . If so, most likely we will Isn’t it that all problems are gone , so it’s not that simple , that is, if the confrontation between the United States and China is very fierce, if Taiwan is so important to the United States , you’re going to sell Taiwan now , it ’s almost impossible unless you ’re stupid. It is the US-China relationship that needs to be improved. As
we just said , there is a need to improve the US-China relationship . However , the US-China relationship can only improve to a certain extent . This is the subjective thinking of the US. The CCP doesn’t think that way. The CCP is always thinking about how I can find your loopholes and hit you or even kill you in one fell swoop . So you talked about the spy balloon at the beginning, but it actually has this function . They themselves talk about it. Fly here to the stratosphere and I can control it. It is easier to use than artificial satellites. The first artificial satellite flies higher . Even if your camera technology is better and the camera lens is better , you still can’t see clearly enough. Well, my balloon just flew there. It’s about the same . Around 20,000 meters , or around 18,000 meters , I am much lower than that artificial satellite, about 10 times lower than that . Let me check. I don’t need such a precise lens
, I can see very clearly , not to mention that the artificial satellite is moving. Well , it usually takes 90 minutes for a man-made satellite to circle the earth, so when you pass through this place , you said that it is great to pass through Montana state for 1 minute, right? The balloon can stay on the balloon for a long time in 1 minute. It can stop for 3 or 5 minutes , or even stop for as long as it takes. You didn't notice, you didn't notice, I can stop for a few hours , I just collect all kinds of information , collect shock waves, collect sounds , and then collect your various data, what vibrations, etc.
So balloons are of great benefit , now you Did n’t the United States care about it? Didn’t I say it at the beginning ? Some Americans think it’s like 911 because you’ve come to my door . Do you think Biden knows? I don’t want to make a big fuss because I think it’s good for Blinken to go and communicate with us , but I didn’t expect things to get serious, so if we make a fuss, Blinken won’t be able to go. Since we can’t go, we have to start over again . Planning So in short, the US-China relationship will improve , but it will not improve to the point of selling Taiwan. You must think clearly about this .
The so-called selling Taiwan is a propaganda war by the CCP , so it is very simple now. We will stop here everyone. Just remember, from tonight onwards, you can switch to other channels to see what these celebrities are saying.
Who is echoing what you just said , saying that the improvement of US-China relations will betray Taiwan , and then Taiwan will be unlucky ? Then Taiwan Who is talking about these words ? There are only two possibilities. First , he is stupid and brainwashed by the CCP, or he knows that I am speaking for the CCP . News Of course, it has been shot down by American warplanes . Most of the wreckage has probably been salvaged . Will the incident stop here ? What will happen in the future ? The other one was mentioned earlier. After this incident, the relationship between the United States, China and Russia, what kind of development does the teacher think will follow? I think that in the short term, the CCP in the United States will Under such a vigilant situation, the action will probably be suspended , because you can see that the balloon should basically have the function of reconnaissance , and then the function of collecting intelligence , and then it has the function of transmitting , that is, sending the collected information back to the home country. Another point is You cannot rule out that it is essentially a military exercise , that is, if it carries some war or quasi-war equipment , he will calculate how long it will take you to react first . Second, you usually don’t see how high I stop. Now , if I stop at 18,000 meters and you see it, I will fly a little higher. I will
fly to 25,000 meters to see if you can see it. Yes, you can’t see it with the naked eye. Can you see 30,000? If you can’t see it with the naked eye , then other equipment can see it. Relatively speaking, it’s a different matter , but at least it’s not so blatant . So I guess the United States is also talking about it now . The CCP has a fleet of spy balloons around the world, and so does
Taiwan . It has been discovered in Japan, the Philippines , and then in India . That is, they have been doing this for a long time . Now it has been discovered by everyone. So in the future, he may continue to do it in other places , but he will do it in more sensitive places like the United States.
Either change the technology , or he will pause for a period of time , but the intention is very clear. The first piece, the second piece, between major powers , often sometimes they play silent diplomacy. Silent diplomacy means that I make an action and then I want to ensure that you can See and make sure you understand the meaning of my action correctly. Well, what am I talking about now ? What I’m talking about is that both parties are waiting for this balloon right now . Afterwards, let’s dissect it first to see what’s on it , then what this thing can do, and to what extent it can do it. We think it’s a spy balloon, and
the CCP claims it’s a meteorological airship. Now , even if it’s a spy device or a sex search, or even It is for military purposes. How did the United States announce it? How did the United States announce it? Then how did the United States word it? Didn’t we just talk about the wording at the beginning ? Blinken said I was delaying , not that I was canceling my visit to the mainland. Let's see how the United States announces in the future and how to word it. Russia? Go back to Russia
. Of course , Russia hopes that the United States and China will completely fall out because of this incident. At this step , the United States probably does not want to go to this step unless there is an accident. I guess the main idea of the United States now is the main idea of the Biden administration in the United States.
It still hopes to stabilize Sino-US relations first , solve the Russian problem first, and I will come back to deal with you . So if the United States says He will handle it in a low- key manner, but I think it is a bit troublesome . The domestic affairs of the United States are so fierce, and the party disputes are so fierce. Next year, the election will be held this year. All these issues will probably affect this decision , so I think the United States is of course two. The party is looking at the results of the autopsy, and
both parties will probably send people in to get the information . The Democratic Party thinks that under what circumstances I can keep a low profile, and the Republican Party should pay attention to where you hide information. If you exaggerate it, both sides want to say that this matter should be manipulated to the best advantage of our party , because they want to focus on the election at the end of this year , and the turmoil in the US internal affairs involves the relationship between him and the CCP. so i guess The CCP is now anxiously looking at the results and wording of the autopsy in the United States , and Russia is also watching this matter, so I think this matter should still have a little impact on the United States, China and Russia. We have to wait and see . Indeed, the CCP is a balloon. It
was still photographed by American people. Obviously, the location is not too high . And as the teacher said, if today we especially see the war between Russia and Ukraine , drones can do many military attacks. You can imagine that . It is not ironic to say that the CCP has any so -called non-government units.
I think this will indeed cause the United States to become more wary of the CCP . To a certain extent, this relationship between the United States and China The tension in some relations is not just the United States, China and Russia . I think the relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan will also have some impact . To a certain extent, I think it should be viewed positively . It is more beneficial to Taiwan . Let everyone know that Taiwan has already told The whole world, the CCP must be careful . This matter is more obvious. I would like to thank the teacher for making this issue very clear today. Let everyone understand this issue from different angles. If you like our episode , you are welcome to help us repost it Press like to subscribe and share with more good friends. Thank you again, Teacher Ming , and thank you for watching. Hello everyone, welcome to watch China at the Frontline of Politics and Economics without code.
They belong to the leek family . What is leek? I think that in Taiwan, leek is not an unfamiliar ingredient . Some people say that the concept of leek is to be slaughtered. After being harvested, it is still like this . It will grow taller and be harvested obediently . Regardless of using various parts similar to other plants to make some names , at least leeks are full of self-mockery among the Chinese people. We are very happy that we invited our teacher Aunt Liu Zhongjing in the past. He also published a new book . With Leek: Auntie on Chinese (human) psychology, reality and ending" I think it is worthwhile for us to come and discuss it today, so we are very happy to invite our American scholar and our historian Mr. Liu Zhongjing , hello, auntie, hello Hello everyone, I would like to ask Auntie for advice at the beginning , because there is also a so-called "order depression" mentioned in the book.
Of course, it is simply said that the Chinese people can never decide their own future and destiny. For a long time, we seem to be a complete Being harvested , like the situation of leeks , this of course also makes us curious , and it is also the part you mentioned, Auntie , in the development of the entire Chinese economy, the development of the entire history of China , whether it is the unified Qin government or the status of the emperor’s authority in the past, or even It was taken over by the Communist Party of China. This is basically an encyclopedia of the so-called robbing of the people by all these regimes. Can you also explain it? According to the common saying of European historians in the 19th century , it is the East National tribute and Western taxation are different concepts . The concept of tribute presupposes the existence of the conqueror and the conquered. Taxation is a negotiation between various levels within a national community , and the expenditures of various classes for the public interest. In other words, it acquiesces that taxation is the result of a game agreed upon by all parties in the contract , while tribute implies a kind of unilateral violence.
On the one hand, the conquered have no resistance and must accept any conditions put forward by the conqueror , but it does not mean that tribute can be better than taxation or that the conqueror must be able to get more things . Sometimes the opposite is true because of taxation The issue of cost is that the taxpayer and the taxed are the relationship between the conqueror and the conquered . There is no trust between the two parties. The conquered is usually the party with poor organizational skills, so he has no sense of responsibility , so the tax that can be collected is often very low. Few , but the cost of taxation is high . Arbitrary taxation methods have caused great losses to individual authorizers , giving people the impression of excessive taxation , but in reality , taxation has achieved very little results.
Most of them are scattered. On the contrary, it is not as good as taxpaying groups that can have a clear and tacit understanding among various classes and can be responsible for their own political actions. Western countries can collect more taxes . The usual situation is that the tribute of Eastern countries is arbitrary and can be added. On anyone's body , but every person who is taxed, who is taxed, will shamelessly evade his burden , or hand over his burden to someone else.
Therefore, when Zhang Ju was discussing the issue of tribute to scholars, he said that this place can Ghosts are born because the richer scholars or the gentry class are very good at evading their own pressure. In order to deal with this situation , they often have Zhu Yuanzhang's atrocities, large-scale exile , and massacres. In this case, the victims One party suffers unfair treatment , while those who slip through the net completely evade their due burdens. Therefore, the justice of taxation is not reflected in both the ruler and the ruled. The ruler can only meet the temporary needs as long as it can be achieved. Fiscal needs are over. Taxes
cannot be expected to strengthen political communities. The long-term consequences of forming a social contract between rulers and ruled are that temporary tax or fiscal goals make the ruled society more fragmented. Distrust , within the ruled , there is even more distrust among their own people, so that the cost of taxation will continue to rise in the future , and temporary success will be replaced by higher and higher taxation costs and social costs other than taxation costs Improvement So what usually happens in this situation is not that the leeks are cut more and more , but that after the leeks are repeatedly cut , both the ruler and the ruled suffer losses because the rulers gradually become more and more difficult to get from The actual benefits gained from taxation ended up falling into a state of financial depletion just like what Emperor Chongzhen faced at the end of the dynasty , and the ruled could not grow and prosper after being harvested. After being harvested, the population withered and taxpayers fled . The gentry class that bears the main cost of taxation is gradually dying out , and the fugitives are not easy to collect taxes. They gradually prosper and prosper , and the country's tax base is increasingly eroded.
As a result , the rulers lose their financial foundation , and the ruled lose their stable and developing society. Foundation And outside the framework of governance , usually outside the framework of household registration and Qimin The number of vagrant proletarians increased dramatically, and the barbarians got their fugitives . As a result, both the rulers and the ruled were severely weakened , and the entire political and social system collapsed and was rebuilt from the ashes, usually by foreign conquerors or foreign orders. In the initial stage of input , the ruling framework has a relatively large technological advantage , but as the situation I just described unfolds repeatedly , the cost gradually rises, and the order advantage gradually decreases . Finally, the order advantage between the ruler and the ruled is wiped out, and the conqueror becomes It is completely unsustainable. The financial collapse and the collapse of the ruling system happen at the same time . The ruled people who lose the protection of the ruler lose their chance of survival . The whole society ends in a bloody massacre and then starts the cycle again . In fact, the dynasty depicted in "Twenty-Four Histories" The cycle theory is like this from the perspective of finance and order . The ruler is the provider of order in any place , or he is a party to the order of production . He can maintain the rule because he produces the order and uses the order he produces to ensure that the ruled can live in society.
Relatively peaceful life and reproduction. When its order and production capacity is weakened enough to protect the ruled and reproduce, the whole society will collapse. Thank you, my aunt , for helping us to clarify and talk about China’s long-term economics for these so-called Chinese people.
The related harvesting and plundering also let us have a clearer understanding . Of course, when we mentioned leeks, of course, the Chinese people would also use it to laugh at themselves , indicating that they should also feel it . Of course, the part of feeling is applied in life . We see In addition to the ones just mentioned, the so-called Lieping people even had some introversion , and then began to have these terms. As mentioned earlier , for thousands of years, after the CCP ’s control and rule of China , the people obviously seemed to agree. These things are very common , so from this point of view, you even mentioned that this kind of "Fera Shunmin" is probably the part you specifically mentioned . Maybe you can help us introduce it. So On the whole, even if you say that it is worse than the leeks in the depression, can you please explain what this means , that is, human behavior is caused by his game habits . If you expect your neighbor to be your potential enemy, it is better than the superior The ruler is more dangerous. If you will be betrayed by your neighbors in the process of fighting against the ruler and fighting for the welfare of your neighbors , they will eat your blood instead of supporting you , then the reasonable choice is nothing . Don't do it wait for one of your neighbors to come out as a fool and let him sacrifice and benefit you with his sacrifice instead of jumping out and sacrificing yourself for the benefit of your neighbor and get nothing in return from the neighbor since everyone is If you think this way , then the chain of collective action will be broken , and everyone will count on me to make a series of concessions to avoid blows falling directly on my head , while others will not be able to bear to jump out first and use their conflicts For my benefit , then this is the so-called prisoner's paradox . An enlarged version of the prisoner's paradox will make every participant in the paradox end up in a worse state than at the beginning of the game. The key here is In that there is absolutely no trust between
prisoners and prisoners . They are hostile to each other more than they are hostile to the presumed ruling class . In other words, they do not have the deep-rooted structure of Western European feudal society . We know that in Western European feudal society, the relationship between people. Contracts often span generations Deeds like land leases are often multi-generational time leases rather than just a few years . You can assume that your class and your neighbors have a very long-term relationship with you , as early as your grandparents , or even earlier . They are all accustomed to supporting each other or exchanging benefits in accordance with traditional norms.
These historical experiences are what you can count on, and you can rely on them in your actions . That is to say, the king or other people ask for nothing other than historical conventions. other new benefits , then the other classes that are affected can counteract according to historical practice, and the reason why it can counter is because your grandfather has been doing it for many years , and everyone just repeats the original pattern. In other words, all we have Getting used to the so-called freedom in Europe is essentially a strategy of class struggle in European feudal societies , because they have strong class barriers and strong corporate structures , so each group in each society is used to pursuing its own special interests and believing in itself People within the group will not betray each other . There are not enough such bonds in Eastern countries , but even in the Islamic countries that Europeans think are very authoritarian, in fact, the civil society organizations that we modern people call non-governmental organizations are still quite large. The monarchs of powerful Islamic countries are usually not able to exercise absolute power over their bodies of jurists , which are partly created by civil society. They often rebel against the monarch to finance their merchants or the interests of the citizens.
Their religious scriptures cannot completely wipe out such a group , so they are only relatively authoritarian according to European standards. According to the standards of East Asians who are more authoritarian than them , the ability to resist is actually quite strong. The so -called comparison of goods For example, during the period of the Mongol Empire , West Asia and East Asia were briefly under the rule of the Mongol conquerors, who also adopted a similar approach to deal with financial problems. The paper currency policy was used to solve financial problems , and the Ilkhanate of Persia also tried to issue paper money in the same way, but the results were completely different . The policies adopted by both of them, according to the current saying, are to issue paper money without reserves . Doomed to cause inflation, the Yuan Dynasty quickly issued banknotes and caused inflation.
The Yuan Dynasty government’s solution to inflation was to punish San Baonu and several responsible ministers , but the victims did not receive any compensation . The banknote crisis lasted until the end of the Yuan Dynasty. Jin The social turmoil in the Yuan and Yuan dynasties was closely related to the paper currency crisis . So in the Ming Dynasty and the early Ming Dynasty, after the rapid failure of paper currency , people resumed using copper coins . One important reason is that copper coins will not cause inflation. However, the same policy in Persia caused Different results When the court issued paper money and was about to force merchants to accept it, Persian merchants publicly went on strike and refused to use paper money , insisting on using it in the traditional way Gold and silver. Although the
Mongolian Khan is their conqueror , he has no way to force them to use paper money. Finally , the paper money that has been issued has to be withdrawn . Persian merchants will use hard currency such as gold and silver as in the past. This means that the imperial court will have no way to use paper money. Exploitation However, in East Asia , the Yuan Empire successfully implemented the paper currency policy. The Jin Dynasty before the Yuan Empire and the Zhu Yuanzhang regime after the Yuan Dynasty also achieved the same goal.
It can be seen that in the so-called dark night of ignorance, crows are just as dark as Mongolia The empire, Persian merchants’ ability to resist the imperial court’s excessive expropriation far exceeds that of East Asian merchants. This has a lot to do with the social self-organization ability that Islamic society can form surpasses East Asian society. However, compared with East Asian society during the Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties Compared with East Asian society during the communist period, the organization ability was much stronger . At least the Mongols and Manchurian conquerors or other conquerors never completely wiped out the landlords and capitalists . They never allowed the people to own any property like the Communist Party.
It is not allowed to make a lot of money in silence, and turn everyone into a poor proletariat . Without state rations, they cannot survive at all. Therefore, the society under the rule of the Communist Party is already weaker than the Islamic society, and the organizational strength of the Islamic society is also weaker than that of the Islamic society. The weak Ming and Qing national social organizations in Europe were even weaker . Another purpose of the regular organization campaign was to encourage neighbors to betray each other and use the neighbors’ losses as compensation for the losses they received from the government . Therefore, everyone is used to exposing each other. This situation is of great help to reform and opening up . For example, in India and Southeast Asian countries, which are as poor as China, it is difficult to produce a large number of migrant workers like China. Their cheap labor is produced to earn foreign exchange for the country . India or Poor people in Southeast Asia have trustworthy companions in their villages and social organizations, so their rights are guaranteed and they won’t be completely stuck.
As for farmers in China , working at Foxconn or factories in coastal areas is the best they can hope for. The conditions are good. If they stay at home , they will be worse off under the party secretary or under the mutual oppression of neighbors.
Chinese farmers and Chinese workers are eager to work . It is not the credit of liberalism or market economy . It happens to be Mao Zedong and the Chinese Communist Party. Destroyed A little bit of social ties left over from the Confucian society makes the people completely unable to trust each other. Therefore, the people who cannot trust each other are willing to accept the cheapest price as Deng Xiaoping said , and no capitalist can resist the operation of the lowest cost . Therefore, China has become a country for this reason. It is a paradise for global capitalists and rulers , but India, Southeast Asia , and even other poor countries cannot do this , and Western countries that are fair, developed and ruled of law are even less able to do this . The success of China’s reform and opening up is ironically just right It is the result of the successful atomization and tyranny of Chinese society by the Communist Party of China during the Mao Zedong era. It will disintegrate to the minimum state of atomization . There is also a price for doing so. The price is that even the minimum atomized small family of the family will no longer be a talisman for the registered households in the enemy-occupied areas.
Although the people don’t trust the imperial court , they still trust their families, so they still have a sense of responsibility in the family and are willing to organize families to make sacrifices for the family , so they still have a higher birth rate , just like the poor countries in India and Southeast Asia , and those under the rule of the Communist Party of China Civilian population , even trust between men and women Father and children cannot trust each other , so no one is willing to make sacrifices for the smallest family, long-term investment , so even marriage becomes superfluous , so the fertility rate drops rapidly to a level lower than that of Japan and South Korea . This is the so-called leek cutting After growing, they did not grow more prosperous , but were gradually extinct. Needless to say, such a decrease in population will make it impossible to maintain cheap labor in China , and it will also be detrimental to the financial revenue of the Chinese Communist Party. Even if China has benefited from the cruel deconstruction of society , including the benefits of economic development through reform and opening up, it is inevitable that it will suffer from social disintegration and population decline . Thank you, Auntie. So from such a context and concept In it, back to your book , of course, you also mentioned a very important thing, and you also talked about reflecting on some issues, that is , why many people in China have faced some, and some of the CCP have done some very bad things.
Everyone seems to agree I can only accept it , so everyone here is curious to ask why this cannot arouse the Chinese people’s demand for power , what are the Chinese people thinking, and why there is such a situation of accepting it now, can you also share with us ? Because people The behavior pattern is determined by experience, that is to say, the normal behavior pattern of Chinese people should be like this . After suffering a certain loss, the best choice is not to recover the loss . Recovery of the loss will consume a lot of time and cost. Generally speaking, it cannot be achieved. To achieve the goal , it is to swallow the loss first , and at the same time expect the same loss to fall on one's neighbors , and then gain psychological balance through the fact that the neighbors are as unlucky as oneself or more unlucky than oneself. Of course, this means that the Chinese and The Chinese have a high degree of malice among each other. They hope that after I have been abused by the rulers , the rulers will abuse other people , and then they can be satisfied and psychologically balanced , and my neighbors also know that I am Look at him like this so if I am unlucky he will be equally schadenfreude and reciprocal schadenfreude a bit and the rulers will also be satisfied to some extent such that the people will never oppose them for rights on paper they can do anything imaginable Things are extremely convenient to govern , but there is also a downside, that is, such people cannot make long-term investments, cannot make large-scale investments, cannot make large-scale investments, they are like black slaves in the seed garden , knowing that what they own is not real They belong to themselves, they have a short-term speculative attitude towards everything, they use the public facilities and social environment they use as soon as they can, and they use it as soon as they don’t use it, and they take advantage of their companions at any time , which is completely dishonest . There is basically no way for China to develop basic scientific research or other long-term things, except to use military technology ruled by the state or engage in sports for all. The state cannot concentrate its efforts on big things. In
the place where the government is governed , if the civil society is allowed to do it, most of it will be left behind. It will not be successful in three years , and it will not form effective competitiveness at all . It is because of the corresponding game environment that it will not make a lot of long-term investment. If the Chinese Communist Party or other rulers If his rule is eased , then the first thing that will happen is that the people, after realizing that their actions can no longer be punished , will give priority to hurting their own neighbors , causing society to fall into a state of more chaos than before , and this chaos will constitute rule . Those who want to re-manage the society, strengthen control, even if it is to increase the cost of control, they must be managed . The so-called "as soon as they are released, they will be chaotic, and once they are controlled, they will die." Any official who rules China must have the experience of choosing to let go , and there is no need for it at all. Lying
, the Chinese people’s character and habits are completely different from Westerners , and also different from other non-Western pre-modern traditional societies . The key reason for the difference is that China is an atomic person and no one else can love except itself. Even the ancient Confucian society except itself. They still love their own family , so they will unscrupulously harm their own society and the long-term interests of the society and the country at any time to remedy their own short-term interests. The method is to concentrate their abilities to serve the country
. This is not a satisfactory situation , but it is the only way for the Chinese state and society to survive. After removing such a violent, authoritarian and powerful central government, what emerges is not freedom. Democracy is the era of Zhang Xianzhong and all the social chaos and massive population loss in the era of dynasties.
Today, I am very grateful to our aunt Liu Zhongjing for mentioning many aspects of this new book . Of course , there is no way to fully understand it in the program . But If you are interested , I encourage you to learn more about some of the problems China is facing now through Auntie’s discussion. We are still looking forward to it. I hope that the people in China can wake up and make some changes soon, because if the people are not awakened, they are still willing. When
it is a leek, it is really like what I just talked about. There are eight out of ten leeks. I think the future of China is still the same. Today, I am very grateful to our Aunt Liu Zhongjing for the wonderful analysis . If you are interested, you are welcome to support Liu Zhongjing. Teacher's new book Thank you