Technically Speaking: Trading the Trend | James Boyd | 4-29-21 | Fundamentals & Technicals? Show Me

Technically Speaking: Trading the Trend | James Boyd | 4-29-21 | Fundamentals & Technicals? Show Me

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[Music] hello and welcome to technically speaking trading the trend weeks to months my name is james boyd great to be with you here today also with us we have cameron may a fellow instructor and uh we have lee kathy frank mark rowan uh josie jill george texas and many others uh we welcome you as we talk about trends the weeks to months we're going to talk about daily charts we'll talk about weekly charts and uh we'll hop right into that and just real quick as we're getting started remember you can follow cameron or myself on twitter we do post educational content there daily and also just want to give you a quick heads up that as we get started a couple reminders remember if we talk about options here today if we have questions about those as well remember that options are not suitable for all investors especially risk inheritance trading options be aware of what those potential risks are also remember that when we demonstrate the function of the platform we're going to use actual symbols remember that td ameritrade does not make any recommendations determine suitability of any security or strategy it is up to you as the investor decide what you want to invest in and what type of strategy and also remember that all investing involves risk and there's the option greeks now we'll take a quick look at the indexes today we'll talk about sectors sub-sectors or industry groups we're going to talk a little bit about the financials review just a little bit from the energy stocks and then we're going to talk about some weekly charts and we're going to talk about scanning for potential using the scripts so as we hop right into this i want to give us a quick reminder that cameron does this as well but when you come to one of our webcasts we have two different youtube channels okay so if you went to for example as you're on this video you'll see that you can subscribe to the channel this channel what you're gonna see is if we look at the home page you're gonna see that ah there it is the technically speaking train the trans right at the top upcoming live streams right getting started with options or long verticals and diagonals we store all those videos all about stock series but if you said i'd like to kind of for example maybe search for something you could also just type in james boyd for example and it's going to give really a listing of these different videos that i've done or for example you could type in camera may so just know that's a great resource for you as well and especially if you're on your mobile device you can just go to our youtube page and i do that a lot with my youtube page different subscriptions i actually have and i could just screen through the content there it's listed it's not like a website but it's just on youtube it's our channel we have two two uh places you could go trader talks and investor insights all right now just real quick as we're hopping in i just want to answer that first question about how to find our content that's one way that you can do it especially if you're on a mobile device now here we are on the s p 500 oh my gosh well the things stop going up i know that's how some of us feel maybe not we'll talk about that now s p here today 42 18. apple was up a little bit to start the day but you're actually going to see it kind of faded throughout uh nevertheless actually s p still up went to a brand new high here today of 42-18 now you go back about the last three weeks i mean it's gone up it's just kind of been drifting higher slash sideways and so if you if you take a look at this okay you are seeing the moving averages the 10 to 20 whole moving averages they are pinching a little bit and if you're actually looking at this the macd has been down for a while and is trying to rotate itself back up so it is kind of interesting what we're seeing here is the momentum trying to rebuild itself after really creating a higher plateau of support you got to give you got to at least say hey we're seeing a higher base of support okay 41.25 after that higher plateau we're starting to kind of see a grind to the upside now james what about the two paid money account short options short futures on the index we said we would carry those okay and that's still the case they haven't really lost that much more they're but they're down though uh the ira went to a brand new high here today where the margin account did not uh we'll talk about that now when we actually look at the nasdaq that was the one that kind of had that top potential pattern you're seeing that it did re-test actually the old resistance 13789 fell down intraday did rally up to a brand new high but it's not closing there now apple in that area okay i'd be embarrassed to show you all my apple products but uh anyway uh that's not a recommendation or endorsement okay if you look at apple it went up and then it went down and it was just very much a flat day the only thing that was constant was the volatility of the stock contracting okay the other big name in that in that nasdaq area if you take a look at this that's also a little bit under pressure okay we're not talking about the david bowie song there under pressure but if you look at this kind of falling right back down to that old resistance area so both apple microsoft they're kind of ones that have gone through the earnings and might be kind of pulling back to kind of some more longer term support areas might be creating some potential opportunity now i want to go back just real quick to what i did see today and i just want to show you this because we said we would well there was a filled order this morning on apple okay filled order and you're going to see that what type of trade was it can anyone actually tell me what type of trade this was for apple now that's kind of interesting because it's it's uh you're gonna see in this case it had sold okay sold the two calls okay and then it bought the two puts now that's awkward now when would you be selling two calls buying two puts well that's if you were probably long the calls coming in today and or short the puts so really this was the exit of a long synthetic okay this was the exit so before today there was a long call and a short put then today it sold the call bought the put back it must have had a target on it and we go back and just quickly evaluate what did it make or lose well i did some quick looking at that prior to us getting started this is actually what it was purchased for back on april 6 and that was actually purchased for a dollar 65 debit 165 that today was actually sold for about a credit of 11.73 so if we look at those differences that that difference there it was really about ten dollars or in other words about a thousand dollars so on that apple trade it must have reached the target and then actually hit out for about a ten dollar gain which would really be about a thousand dollars but you gotta remember it was on two contracts okay so ten dollars ish per contract okay so that one did fill here today now the other one in that space that's when i was on charles swab live yesterday with kevin horner you're we said yesterday why are people not talking about facebook well and by the way if you're talking about something that fundamentally fundamentally might be potentially undervalued based upon very conservative metrics it might be and has been facebook okay now if you look at facebook this is what it's looking really like on the daily chart and going into today you saw kind of going into the earnings a little cross with a little rotation up on the mac d well when we take a look at this on let's say a three year weekly chart what you're really going to notice is it's been in an upward trend right going into these earnings there has been an upward grind to it you are also seeing on the weekly chart kind of like a resistance old resistance at about 294 50. okay now let's kind of take a look at this now if we actually were to look let's say facebook we see that the longer term trend it's it's up right and it's up and recently breached resistance now someone might again look at this trade and say it's 328 dollars everyone here is going to be a little different in terms of the account size right well they actually might look at this and say you know what this might be a little bit more expensive and maybe might the stock pull back a little bit so when the stock gaps up like this okay when the stock gaps up like this what could act like a potential level of support go ahead type that in what could act like a potential level support here now one thing that you might be thinking is a put the old high which by the way is almost about halfway you know gapping up that's going to be right around the 314 let's just say 315 might even be in the area of 320ish so that area for example right there some investors might say i think the stock could try to stay up above that area so wherever they think that support is that's where the investor might decide to try to be a little bit more bullish or to take a bullish position where they think the stock is actually going to stay above now remember some traders might not like selling puts they might think that if i sell puts there's downside risk and that's absolutely true okay the investor doesn't like that potential stock ownership with that unlimited risk down to zero and in this case the paper money account is going to go a little bit further okay it's not going to go to the 21 mace with 22 days left it's going to go to the junes where there's 50 days okay now right in the material talks about going 20 to 40 days to expiration maybe 20 to 50 days expiration because we don't know sometimes we not might not be able to get an expiration in that bracket but if we were to look at let's say 50 days and look at let's say the options we're gonna go right around about that 315 strike so we actually looked at the chart we said where's the potential level support let's say it's 314 315. that's where the strike is being sold now that strike being sold is also with the delta of 30 to 40. you

can see that those overlap sometime the second thing is if the investor wanted to buy protection to the downside they might just buy the the corresponding put below that okay so trade number one here in this case is we're going to right click on that 315. we're going to actually go to where it says cell gonna go to vertical okay now when we sell vertical there is a capped gain again again this is where if someone feels more strongly about the upside potential move they might say i'm not doing a vertical because i want to try to get all that premium i know that carries with a more risk if someone said james i'm i want to do more of a vertical i don't want to have that buying power collateral tied up and in this case if we take a look at this let's say the investor were to actually sell the 315 and then buy the 310 below now this is going to give us about for each contract 350 dollars risk so if we were gonna risk in the ira about fifteen hundred dollars we could probably do about four contracts okay if we did four contracts it's gonna be no greater than a max loss of 1500 okay now if we take a look at this okay if the investor's okay with that the credit is that 600 is for the four contracts okay the 520 in this case for this is for the vertical spread but it's based on four contracts okay so that's why it's 520 the net credit there you see it right there is 594 dollars now this is in an ira account okay so if we think about well how much money is it really tying up on a 328 stock in an ira account the answer is 1400 worth of capital okay now if the investor's okay with that we're going to go ahead and put that in the vertical section okay of the portfolio because we categorize it and we're going to go ahead and actually send it now i am just dying i'm dying to really know and i'm going to show you this uh quickly now i want to kind of see historically when i actually looked at facebook that was actually something where fundamentally it was also something kind of maybe a little bit attractive so what i'm going to do is i'm going to just bring i'm going to show you where i'm getting this and then we're going to move forward we know if we go to the td ameritrade website we can go to education and then we can go to stocks okay education stocks then what you're going to notice is i'm just going to pull up a sheet real quick we have right there cameron dead center how to buy stocks for beginners and then just to the right it's going to say stocks fundamental analysis course we have a technical analysis course we have a fundamental analysis course i'm going to click on continue for that fundamental analysis course what do i want to get out of that i'll show you when i click on that down at the bottom it's going to say intrinsic value calculator now i'm just dying to know where the stock stands now if i go to intrinsic value calculator this is a kind of a a format to really kind of gauge really where's the stock trading in relationship to its intrinsic value now i'm not going to fully dive into this okay but i i am going to for example just kind of quickly check these numbers now is anyone ever kind of thinking what could these stocks potentially be worth based upon its current and forecasted fundamentals does anyone ever think that like what could this stock actually be worth okay and i think if you're gonna go buy a house go buy a car you're typically trying to weigh maybe what that stock could maybe be worth now what i'm going to do is just just real quick is i'm going to kind of fill out this i just want so that did fill and give me about 60 seconds and we're going to actually see this now by the way i'm filling this out as i'm talking but i want to kind of just bring up some of this basic information and i'm going to show you this and we can fill it out and i just need the tnx and i just kind of want to see historically facebook is one of those stocks that was well i had a pretty big discount uh 16.45 and i'll show you this now as i brought this up okay here it is what i was doing in the meantime is i was just typing in the stock price okay not a surprise also number two is i typed in the vix value 1732 i also for example typed in what they call the tyx the 30-year rate you could use the 10-year as well we just need a risk-free rate and the last thing i need to do is i'm just going to go ahead and chop this really down to the years of projected growth really three the reason why i did that is because if you go five or seven or eight it's going to think that the company could continue to grow at the same pace which could inflate the intrinsic value now i'm just going to bring up the last thing here and then we're done i just want to kind of see where this is we're going to go ahead and bring up facebook and we need to know for example what its bait is okay and i want to kind of show you sometimes when people think technical analysis they always think that these stocks have no fundamental value i'm going to show you one example okay one the beta on this stock right now is really 1.3 the stock earnings per share trailing 12 months is actually sitting here about 10.09 it's right there so we'll fill that in now we're almost done we only need two more pieces of information and the last thing we really need here is what's the earnings for share growth and also the industry group pe and then we're gonna have our number so if i go to the fundamentals we're just gonna look and see scroll down a little bit what has been the earnings per share growth over the last five years now be careful with this because this is gonna what happened in the past might be different in the future but it's showing that number the earnings per share has been growing at 50 percent over the last five years so if i type that in 50 that's automatically gonna dock it assuming that it's going to revert somewhat and the last thing we need is what's that industry rupee now when i pull this up what you're going to see is we want to know what the industry group pe is okay now be careful on this we're going to go to valuation and now it's going to show the facebook pe now we're not talking about tesla here okay facebook pe is actually 26 and the industry group is actually 34. now hold on what actually happens if you have a higher growth company with a lower pe than the average okay of the industry well that might be something attractive so in other words it's not lower growth it's actually higher growth okay and it's also trading at a lower multiple than the industry on average the industry is 34.69 all right type it in

let's see what we get 34.69 run it down to the bottom and now we actually see that we see two numbers here okay we see an intrinsic value of 525 dollars but the stock price is 328 and if you look at what's called the margin of safety okay it's 37 percent now if we said look we don't think this company could keep growing like this we think this company can only grow for another year or two like this before it maybe has some competitive forces even if you said look i think it's gonna do it for two more years you're still seeing that the intrinsic value is still 426 okay if you're making the assumption that it can only grow like this for two more years so just keep an eye i want to kind of show you this because i've had some questions saying so many stocks are frothy so many stocks are at highs the reason why we care about earnings as technicians is we want to see if the company is being supported by the earnings per share but also with that uh with that as well is what is the upgrade upgrade or the forecast in terms of that growth going forward okay if that growth going forward is forecasted to continue to grow it can inflate the intrinsic value and make that trend continue potentially now are there any questions with that now i brought up facebook as an example of trend we looked at it on a weekly and a daily some investors think that we're just talking technicals but what we showed right there by attaching the fundamentals to it and the earnings which just happened yesterday we can see that sometimes trends are not just because people are buying it trends are also things that can be supported by price multiples intrinsic value all of them okay all right and by the way i want to give you a quick heads up where do we find that well just kind of before we go the next example we found this by going right to education we went right to where it says stocks and if we go to education say stocks you're going to see that it's going to give us uh where we'll say the stocks fundamental analysis course if we click on continue right there once we go inside that course where's that sheet that you just showed i click on that sheet what you're going to notice is right down near the bottom underneath resources sample investing plans okay now if we go forward now neil says is there a price sales column that we can add to the watch list that's a good question uh if we go to let's say to the market watch which we'll move to i'm not so sure if we're talking about a watchlist itself could there be something where we could maybe add let's say the price price of sales neil of initially i would say don't know on that i i have not seen something or i've never put anything like price for sales it from what i'm it shows price earnings price of cash flow price the book but at least initially i don't see price of sales on that all right now let's go forward here now what i want what i do want to pull up is i do also want to kind of go back to what we discussed a little bit yesterday with actually crude oil okay now if we take a look at crude oil we talked about yesterday crude oil from the perspective of that if we're starting to kind of get more demand people are starting to drive maybe a little bit more and then we also kind of see maybe uh just more commodities maybe being a destination of capital we actually see on the chart of crude we actually saw that the lower high this morning was breached so for example where i just drew that arrow that's the lower high well if we in the shorter term actually got above that this must be a higher high if we got above that so we might be thinking we talked about energy stocks yesterday did two trades there we might want to look in terms of energy let's hold that thought the second when we think of oil we also might think about let's say gasoline now if you pump gas you'll know that gas has not gone cheaper it's actually gone higher gasoline looks like crude and the last commodity we'll take a look at here is when you look at let's say heating oil okay now if you look at heating all these charts where you look at oil itself gasoline or crude they're all showing charts that are actually getting above their prior high just kind of backfilling what we talked about yesterday now if you take a look at let's say ixe we talked about yesterday where the price of the energy sector breaching above the diagonal resistance okay now amanda you thought i forgot i didn't forget a man i i remember okay amanda said yesterday hey let's take a look at chevron okay let's take a look at chevron and by the way i want to look at exxon as well okay now if i actually looked at let's say chevron okay this is what the chart looks like now i'll back it up but then we'll try to zoom in as much as possible so kind of longer term resistance on this chart it's probably right around 93 dollars okay 93 if i kind of took a pencil draw a horizontal line across that 93 was really an area of resistance okay now if we look at kind of say a recent area of support tell me where that recent area of support is so when i think support i'm thinking where did the price fall down to and then go back up where did the price fall down to and then where did it go back up when the price fell back down where did it go back up okay well there's been about three touches on the chart lately where we actually saw kind of this area this plateauing of support now if you take a look at this what you're now going to notice is this stock has really touched okay three times right around that hundred dollar area and then what you'll kind of notice is we've had we've had kind of a couple times where the price went down bob back up down bob back up and we when we say bobbing back up what do we mean by that well what i mean by that is the stock goes down and then bob's back up down bob's back up and whenever it bobs back up or goes back up it's really creating what's called lower highs now remember the lower highs really create if you kind of connect those lower highs you really get kind of like a a line in which you can draw diagonal resistance well so who cares well the idea is if the price starts to get above that resistance could the trend be changing could the sellers be losing control now so number one we see the support of a hundred number two we actually see a diagonal breakout stock when we actually take a look at the earnings let's go take a look at when these earnings are and those earnings are tomorrow morning when we go back and take a look at the three-year weekly chart this is what the chart looks like on the weekly now i'm going to kind of scrunch this down a little bit so we can see this and i'm going to kind of really give us a little bit more width okay so if we were going to kind of look at this chart and kind of say if the stock were to go up areas of resistance above us on the chart a might be 113 another area in the chart might be in this ballpark 125. now what do you think chevron's gonna say a we're negative on the price of oil they could okay but if that crude oil heating oil and gasoline futures are actually going up they might be forecasting potentially again you gotta remember on their income statement they're not making money on rubber duckies and selling uh floatable rafts okay their income source primarily is coming from oil okay that's why we looked at oil okay it's not flotation devices rubber duckies understand what does this company have exposure to okay oil gas right so that's why we looked at that if that company starts to make some maybe potential forward statements on we think the earnings could be pretty good for the next quarter that actually might cause the stock to try to go up potentially now some of that already priced in some people already kind of speculate on that probably sure right but that'd be interesting kind of see their comments going forward now if we looked at this and said well james could the investor maybe buy the stock why would they buy the stock well they might buy the stock because they want to have number one exposure a higher delta to it but the other thing is they might want to maybe get chevron because the company does pay a dividend now that yield is not that bad and i want to say not that bad what do you mean by that well that yield is 4.83 it's a quarterly dividend dollar 29 times it by four oh don't know it's going to be about five dollars and it's about 106 dollar stock so it's about a annual dividend of yield of 4.83 that's not small okay kind of nice actually so if the stock were to stay flat and the company continued to pay its dividend 4.83 if the stock went up about five dollars or five percent it's the stock appreciation plus the dividend okay okay let's not get ahead of ourselves just kind of thinking that through a little bit here but if the investor said james i'm a little concerned about maybe the downside of the stock well maybe try to give it a little bit more price fluctuation this is where you go into earnings and some investors what they'll do is they'll set stops really tight well maybe it might be more appropriate to maybe make it where the position size might only be half as big as it normally is so in the ira we typically talk about a position size of about twenty five thousand dollars in other words about five percent of the portfolio value well what happens in this case if we said we're only going to do a half position well why we've got earnings coming up tomorrow want to account for that maybe a volatility and let's say the investor said james i want to set a stop maybe where it's not as tight as normal well if we take a look at this let's say 100.66

and we go let's say less two to three percent that's going to be setting a stop at about 98.64 okay so this is only about a half a position risking forecasted really about eight dollars or eight hundred dollars we're assuming that the stock could actually get stopped out near the 98 now if we take a look at this if we go confirm and send now we actually see there's the capital that's involved there's the buying power effect now yesterday we talked about on the long synthetic class if someone said james i want to kind of have that upside potential but i want to kind of cap the risk to the downside you might want to go take a look at the class on long synthetics that we talked about yesterday that could still have the same or nearly the same profit potential but tying up less capital and having less risk to the downside god that was the biggest tease ever to go watch the long synthetic class from yesterday but i just had to tell you about that because if someone said geez i don't want to invest ten thousand dollars well there's other ways to kind of get that same payoff profile okay now when we actually take a look at this the commission is zero okay so now the investor said okay send the order now it's actually going along that stock okay now i want to kind of talk about something here okay i want to go to actually the page actually just real quick before i do i want to go back to the t and x okay now if the t and x now the 10-year yield this is not looking at price this is looking at the rate of the 10-year bond okay uh if we take a look at this or the 10-year note if we take a look at this what you're going to see is it's going to show 16.43 you want to take the decimal over one to the left and it's going to be really showing us the annualized or the annual okay uh 1.643 164 basis points okay so if we take a look at this if the rates are going up this is the 10 year t y x is the 30 year so when you take a look at this what you're going to really notice on both of these these are starting to kind of try to work themselves back up now when you think about banks in general banks they charge people service fees right checking account savings account you name it they can also make money on spreads where they receive money or borrow money for one percent but then they lend the money out at three percent example given and they make the spread okay it's like any other store they buy a product for 20 they sell for 40. they're making the

spread their product though is not a an item it's an interest rate okay third thing they actually make money on is trading desks they have wells fargo trading desks jp morgan trading best etc that trade the financial capital markets uh equities and bonds now if you take action and currencies if we take a look at this i want to kind of just show a couple stocks that are kind of doing something a little interesting now if i looked at a stock like goldman sachs what do you see on the chart here what do you actually see on the chart in terms of goldman sachs now when we actually look at this chart i'm going to kind of draw this just briefly and if we actually look at this yeah pierre would be gtc but if we actually look at this uh so that did felt we'll verify that so and you're gonna kind of see it went down went up notice actually on goldman sachs it's in more of a like a continuation pattern when you actually look at the low let's say about 320 and you look at this recent pullback okay now we've said this over years it's not the first time saying this whenever you get a pullback in price that is not pulling back as far as it did before you gotta wonder why did it not pull back as far well if it's not pulling back as far as it did before there might be some investors that are anticipating that the price might go back up to the prior high and maybe potentially break resistance now if you kind of actually look at goldman sachs if we draw a level resistance okay how do we draw the resistance well if we kind of were to kind of take like a price level if we were to kind of say where do we get most of the touches again if i take a ruler and kind of say do i get the most touches here only get one touch what about here i get two touches but if i start drawing a little bit lower probably about right there about 346 347 i am getting a lot more touches right on that area okay well if that's where we draw the resistance line we actually see for example in this case this is where the prices really could be trying to really breaking out of resistance now i want to kind of go back to this chart so first off i i want you to understand from me when i'm doing a daily routine for sure i'm looking at futures it's not necessarily we're trading features on a daily basis but we look at futures because we want to see pre and post market activity if the market is open we could absolutely look at the indexes but the other things we want to use futures for is like looking at energy prices okay like we showed but the other thing we could actually look at as far as on a daily basis to get some trade ideas is also for example to look at yields okay and that's how we're coming to really gs but if we look at this this is actually something we're seeing a potential breakout as well now i'm going to go back to this okay if the investor said james i want to buy this but i don't really want to outlay the capital i'm going to go back to ricardo's comment yesterday which is could the investor maybe in this case go long the call which takes less capital has unlimited upside but the investor is really risking the premium okay now i'm going to actually go back to may sorry excuse me june's okay there we are so we got if we chose the first strike in the money that would be the 350 call okay now if the ambassador said james i want to come over to the put side and if we sold the 350 put [Music] that one hurt that one has a delta 3 45. excuse me 45 for that 350 put strike maybe the investor's not comfortable with that maybe they want to come down and say look i want to actually sell okay the 340 where maybe the investor's trying to buy the discount okay buy this buy shares of the stock at a lower strike price a little bit more of a discount so first let's actually set this up now can you answer this question for me what put did we say we were going to buy so if the paper money account is going to actually sell the 340 which put did we say the paper money account was going to buy which selling the 340 but so the risk is not down to zero here we said the paper money count was probably going to focus on buying a put with a strike that had a delta of of 10 or less probably something where it might be a bach now in this case stock price is higher so we're going to probably look at let's say the 305 so the pay-per-money account is going to sell the 340 and then buy which one let's go back and look we'll verify well the one that probably has a delta 10 or less is really going to be the 305 so let's change that right there let's put it right here 305 ding ding ding dink 305 so it's really a 340 305 now this is not your standard short put spread because it's wider the purpose of buying that put lower we talked about yesterday which is just to cut the risk and also decrease the capital that's actually being tied up second now once that trade is there the investor can come in and say first trigger scq and what is step two of this trade what's step two now this is just a short wide put spread this is not unlimited upside gain in this case now the investor can just click on the call they want to what well the call they want to buy now if they actually go ahead and do this left click right there now what you're going to see so let's put this right there on the risk profile analyze the trade and we're going to go back let's right click on that call analyze the trade did this yesterday now when we actually bring this up we now want to kind of see that risk profile diagram well when we actually take a look at this we see that the long call itself okay is checked okay and that's what's really creating this risk profile diagram where there's unlimited upside that's coming from the call piece now what you're going to notice is the 340 short put that's the obligation to buy but the 305 that's the right to sell so remember what we said before is in this case if we wanted to like cut the risk that's why you're going to notice that blue line goes flat right around the 305 and that's different than maybe someone who has a long stock position all right just showing that again now what's the dealt on this trade well based upon what this paper money account is really doing it's really about a 79 delta it's mimicking as if the stock owns or this position would be 79 shares of stock i want you to notice though if the stock goes up about 10 what happens the delta the position it gets higher what happens if the stock goes down 10 from where it is now the delta actually becomes less because it's actually getting closer and closer where the investor has a right to sell okay now we're going to go ahead and go back to the trade the paper money account likes to just have the trade filled initially and then go back and strap on the stop and the target why well i'll show you okay there's the commission there's the total there's the buying power effect this is in the ira we'll send it now that order gets filled which it did the paper money account is only going to set the stop and the target on the bullish positions how would the investor know what the bullish positions are the bullish positions are the trades that have positive delta okay there they are now what you're going to notice is i'm going to ask you and whatever you tell me that's what i'm going to use okay so if i were to ask you the question where would you set the stop tell me where you'd set it and if i were to ask you the question of where would you set the target where would you set it based upon this chart i'm giving you now [Music] okay final answer what's your answer okay now the comment for my win is what type of trade is this called technically it's a long synthetic but the investor is buying put protection to the downside to minimize the downside so when i would still call it really a long synthetic which is buying a call and short the put two bullets positions but the purpose of buying the put we talked about yesterday okay now carol says two to three percent below 346. okay so i'm just going to take for example what carol gave me going to type it in here 346. the answer for the stop that we're going to take from carol is 335 62.

i'm gonna write that down 335 62. all right now target-wise okay target-wise okay vj says target 370. now we kind of might be wondering where's bj getting that okay now vj i think you live in arizona i think phoenix we might be wondering like wait is it maybe getting a little high is bj feeling well today well let's see a vj where is maybe vj getting that well if we take 325 and we take maybe resistance right around let's say 346 okay that's really going to be in this case if we're talking the width of this from just kind of support to resistance add the potential and get its potential okay that's really going to get us about really 366 if we're talking about adding the width on top of the resistance now carol says 365 mike says 373. so in this case i'm going to kind of take the median of or the average if you want we could say that as well of the numbers you gave me okay so here we go so i'm how do we type that in now okay so now let's go back to the trade okay it's gonna go back to the trade and we're just gonna right click on those lines let's say create a closing order sell now once we actually do cell right there we're now going to go over and do it make it a conditional order so when we say conditional like every class that i do i talk about a conditional or every class find a class where you don't talk about conditional it's one one in a million okay if i go down to limit to a market data gtc the exit on these options is based off the stock price reaching a certain level so the first line is going to be 370.

if the stock were to go up to 370 exit those options it should be for a game second row if it goes at or below 335 what did carol say 335.62 okay carol don't don't doubt yourself so if we actually look at here 370 target air 335 62 those are the parameters for this trade okay right there now we're going to save the order come back so now what you're going to see is those numbers that were typed in 370 target 335 62 and now what you're going to see is if now it's not going to hit out of both okay it's going to be one or the other okay now there was a question regarding the risk profile cam actually did type in thank you for that a uh youtube from pat milali's class on using the analyze tab okay now i don't want you to ever think that you and your life have never done the analyze tab of course you have when you got married you analyzed the risk profile graph of being right that that marriage would last forever okay and you also said what's the risk if i get married and there was a diagram in your mind okay that looked like the risk profile graph that all of us thought of now if we go back to this order it's gonna it is gtc confirm and send i'm gonna send it so now what we actually see is we're gonna look and kind of see over time can that trade continue to potentially go up now the delta is 79 so we know in this case it's a bullish trade okay positive delta now the other thing i want to kind of just wrap up on here is earlier today i did also post so let me kind of bring this back up so first off i want to kind of say you can subscribe to this channel this channel being really trader talks okay that's we have two channels investor insights trader talks when you come to for example to by the way when you're on your subscriptions will be on the left hand side so you'll see i'm subscribed to investor insights i'm subscribed to let's say trader talks when you click on trader ins trader talks you can also click on videos and this will typically give you the chronological order of classes that we did just recently okay so i'm showing you that because i'm not really sure if a lot of people kind of know that once they subscribe to something now what when you go to your home okay home now you actually go down your subscriptions on the left hand side now you're actually gonna see that we have the td ameritrade investor insights you can switch on those channels and see videos okay on different channels okay now if we now i don't really know that if they're analogies i'm just trying to summarize now if we pull this up i want to show you something another question i i get frequently and i've got a lot lately is in using the scripts okay now i posted this historically but in using the scripts a lot of the ways i actually get uh examples for classes or webcasts is i use this okay let me say this what is this well we use three lists dow nasdaq and s p 100 and what these really are is it's this is looking at the dow jones itself and it's actually looking at is installing really columns to screen performance of percentage gain or loss it's screening relative strength compared to a benchmark it's screening for example are there let's say cohold or uh which is a bullish balance or let's say uh moving average crossover etc okay now i don't know about you but i don't want to run 20 different searches on one sheet of paper or screen i want to see what i want to see on one gauge okay one screenshot now some of you might be asking and this is why i'm kind of touching upon this is earlier today about an hour ago what are these scripts and how do you read them well what i did is i i did this a while ago where i actually kind of if you click on the picture on my twitter feed i kind of wrote a little description of what each of the column headings were what is the purpose of it and then if you click on the forward arrow just over here to the right it will go to the next one what's the purpose of the 10 and the 30. what's the purpose of for example cohold what is it what is the 20deh what is the whole moving average why do we even care what are flags right and you could actually kind of see a little description of also what is the relative strength and why do i really care what is it showing me that's what i want you to do as a takeaway here today okay so today we actually talked about doing a bullish trade we did three trades number one we did facebook we also tied in that facebook is not something that's just technical analysis we actually kind of showed that face was facebook was really being supported by the underlying fundamentals but people don't really look at that okay they don't they say they look at i don't think they really do prove me wrong second thing actually is we also look at the example of chevron we've been watching in our webcast for examples of the strength we've been seeing in crude oil gasoline and heating oil did the example of chevron okay and the third example we actually talked about was actually uh goldman sachs but we're saying we're going to keep an eye also on in this case of uh the rates and do those rates on the 10 year and the 30 year continue to increase so today we did three trades today we also looked at those in terms of the daily chart and the weekly chart as we walk through those examples so the two things i want you to take away is here number one subscribe to the trader talks channel when you go when if i were to go to which i am you're now gonna see when you subscribe to the channel your subscriptions will be on the left hand side so if i said one of my subscriptions is td

i can see any td website right on my mobile device if i say i want to go to investor insights subscription i can see any of the videos i can click on home or i can click on videos right in my fingertips now i don't have to say i don't have this information because i can get the same look and view of this right on your iphone your ipad whatever you got okay right on the go okay so i want to make sure you know where to get that the second is right on my twitter page remember what i posted if you want to kind of see really a breakdown of what these scripts are what the intention the purpose is okay feel free to actually uh look at that as well you should be able to know what those are okay because i wrote about those all right now what i like to kind of know is that there's a repeatable process of maybe how an investor could evaluate trends technically uh and also maybe fundamentally something they could do over and over again and evaluate okay so i'm out of my time here today john nicholl will be coming up next he will be doing a class really on diagonals and also verticals as well long verticals and so i want to thank you so much for your comments and your participation thank you cameron as well so remember two items of a takeaway number one subscribe to the channel trader trader talks investor insights when you go to you should see on your subscriptions to trader talks investor insights td ameritrade example given that'll be right on the left-hand side when you click on those what you're going to again see is our home or our videos right there share with a friend a family member trust me your friends and family members want to reach their financial goals or have a greater chance to actually hit those as well share it with them let them know about it okay also remember what we talked about here today we discussed applying and practicing uh demonstrating the function of the platform we need to use actual symbols we did stay tuned for john mcnichol coming up just next and again with that said uh stay tuned uh for all of our great information that we will post right on our youtube channels trade trucks and investor insights i wish you a great day and you guys are in great hands with john mcnicho coming up next take care bye-bye

2021-05-03 08:29

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