Technical Trading In Stock Market Set Up & Russian Crisis To Bring Another Leg Down Or Up 02 20-22

Technical Trading In Stock Market  Set Up & Russian Crisis To Bring Another Leg Down Or Up 02 20-22

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good afternoon everyone it's chrissy from solsticetr this is our website and our number you can find us at the web on twitter instagram as well as you can dm me on discord this week's video is going to be very special to cover the russian crisis the overall sentiment in the market and couple of different ideas that will help you in the long term as well as the short term to take some trades um most important we use this technology algorithm for adaptive so we can get a signal you can hit the subscribe button if you like it's free weekly video as well we use this for illustration use only we are not a broker dealer past performance does not indicate future results let's go first to the first slide i put up in this first slide i put russian crisis to bring a leg lower in the market or is it going to give us a slow bleed lower or a total u-turn in the sentiment in the overall market we'll cover a couple of etfs from tnx iaf ief vixx spy dao as well as the indices bitcoin crude oil as well as some large cap apple amazon boeing blackstone caterpillar google lockheed martin roku what happened in the earning as well as tesla last but not least so what is the sentiment traders saying almost most of all the institutional uh sentiment in the overall global and domestic market what i want you to pay attention to for every move up and a move down there's always a reversal the consolidation that we had in november before the december rally we had a reversal down then in january top reversed back up in february and we're eventually falling down is it because of the russia is it because the cost of crude is it because cost of inflation interest rates in the european market this cbe as well as united states federal reserve board increasing interest rates or are they going to slow it down not all at the same time to cause a panic was the small cap investors because usually small cap investors are the ones who first start to move up and start the move down in relationship to fear and greed and usually that sentiment is not a lagging indicator i consider an overall view of the little guys in the market not taking a look at the different sectors such as energy defensive stock non-defensive technology telecommunication industrial biotech all that so we have to break it down step by step by looking at those instruments and i hope this will help you understand what's going to happen in the following week this is just a concept an idea calculated risk analysis whatever the market does we trade what we see we're not biased so let's first go to what i have here i have the small cap iwn which is the value play etf there's an iwm which has the fibs this is the february low when carbon hit this was the high then we fell down and eventually by october november of the year before we rallied up last year's small cap was range bound you can see it we looked up in november we we fell back in we tried in the december rally didn't make it to the prior high so i considered these at three tops eventually failed down we're trying to look up is this sentiment gonna change the direction in small cap to take people back up in the overall market we have to pay attention to what i want to do is use the iwm which has the fed which will show you i know i'm using two days here but this is the consolidation remember we retested the gap here on the weekly doesn't show there's one here when the sentiment fell down you can see we retested that the annual law of last last january fourth fifth of last year we fell below it we looked up we tested the 18 simple moving average and the 200 we found a little bit resistance does this mean this weekly consolidation is it setting up due to the international markets ukraine and russia or is it more noise because of fear of inflation and interest rates so let's take a look at now the qqq i did opposite today i usually do the futures the qqq you can see the annual high and low fibonacci we are below the 50 we have retested the 61.8 as well we fell down below the november but we never tested the may low or the march low before the january this is the march low you can see and this was the january rally up here this is what we had the low last year so the january was here this is why it's anchored in this area we looked up we fell back down does this mean we're going to retest the may as well as the march or end up holding the 200 simple moving average in the qqq in order to reverse back up on the two days let's take a look at spy spy has a lot of stuff on it sometimes i have fibs sometimes i don't but usually it'll help us to see an overall view regarding the retracements if i take this prior year high which is the january i mean the the january high of this year to down here we can see we dropped 12 percent but year today we are about 9.5 percent down this was considered consolidation where we fell down we tested the november we tested the july but we never tested the june low does this mean we gotta retest it or this is considered a support area between the main and june where there was this consolidation look up fall back in the range and continue high this has a lot of consolidation in this area is this going to find support and reverse back or are we going to look for the 200 sma the may area of this year in sby let's take a look at the dow dow that we can do the dj x i'll put d o w which is a similar thing um we can see that the dow um this is the january law which is the 28th you can see it this is the november that rally back up we consolidated for a while we looked up in october november december we rallied made an annual high if this is considered the shoulder this is the head is this the shoulder where we found a lot of support in this area from the may area june and july or is it going to fall through to touch the 200 sma and the back side of this channel you can anchor one from here to here that way it gives you a closer look where the 200 sma is so pay attention to what the charts offer you i'm not so biased to being bearish or bullish we trade what we see on daily basis let's now go to we start with btc i'm going to start with the futures btc then i'll go back to a couple of etfs i know this has a lot of noise in it i have the annual fifth from low to high for the year we double top we couldn't continue in this area i'm gonna zoom in this is a very important area that we had the gap up here in btc unfortunately we couldn't make it back to the 47 215 where we fell from we tested the 45 a could not find support we fell back inside the wedge and you can see that btc fell back in is it going to find the gain support at the 200 sma if it does that's great then it'll you turn back up if it doesn't it falls through you will look for the back side of this area where it filled this gap because this is the only candle that filled this area that was gap and it filled it in the trading hours we have to pay attention to the 200 sma in case it finds support reverses back up to the back side of this linear regression channel and break up to the 38.2 which is around the 46a the 47.2 is the

scandal here 250 215 this is a very important area that btc has to regain in order to run higher if it doesn't pay attention on daily basis what the charts are offering you don't be biased to one side let's take a look at right now gc in gold oops slash gc we can see that gold eventually has come out of that symmetrical triangle which i've been mentioning for the last two weeks in the chat and i said pay attention to either side of the channel once those channels are broken trade directional to the either the upside or downside it baseline for a while reversed from that lower linear lower channel eventually broke the upper yellow from way back and the purple one to continue to the upper measured move the monthly expected move from 0 to 100 we tested the 161 upside if the 1900 is lost pay attention to gold because the retested back of this channel is very important to hold btc and the 38.2 the monthly measured move in goal let's now take a look at cl crude oil has tried to find the level it reset on the annual measured move it retested the 23 looked a little bit above it on the 14 fell back in and trying to reverse back it did not recover 100 on friday the move back up this is a down move this is the open of the week the two days measured move on the daily a candle and this is the low of it it closed right on it we have to pay attention visit really want to test the annual high for the year of last year or is it going to test the 18 sma and reverse back to the mean this is no longer valid channel we're gonna remove it we're gonna anchor one from here to this candle you can see it right there and this one we have to re-adjust it remove drawing or we can anchor one from this channel to this candle here it gives you a better view of the linear regression up channel if this is lost in the 18 retests here we'll look for the back side of this area if it breaks up above this candle this was the channel that it broke from we look for the upside of the prior channel that's crude oil let's now take a look at es which is the uh fortune 500 company what i wanted to concentrate on we are in a linear down channel you can see we retested that double top this was one one tick i mean uh one point above this was the 86 45 86 this was the 45 85 could not sustain it we fell back in range as you can see we fell through the linear regression up channel symmetrical triangle that it was forming inside that down channel this is the midpoint of it does it hold the 38.2 fib or does it hold the 50 or no monthly measured move in order because this was the major consolidation we retested the september area if i zoom down a little bit you can see where the july was we retested it but have not tested the june low this is a very important area that we don't fall in this area if we do fall in this linear regression can't get the support at 50 or the 61 in the june area in the july we can see as far as 200 sma as well as the annual fibonacci 61.8 but i'm looking for support to find if things do not get escalated in the ukraine russia zone as well as the interest rates due to the fed policy as well as the european we may have a reversal back up pay attention to what s p does let's take a look at the nq we'll go a little bit faster the nasdaq 100 we had this channel up on the fast time frame no longer valid we got to remove it i did a four hour charts i usually use four hours hourly to give me and basically a sentiment on the shorter time frame for the direction of the moves when we're trading to the upside or downside using a five minute we can see that that 200 sma is still holding if we do end up losing the h pattern or do we end up reversing back to the 38.2

pay attention to the nasdaq holding that 200 and the 161 monthly measured move to the downside if it does that's great if it doesn't the 61.8 annual fib may not support it this was the april and the march high watch the may low before you end up getting a reversal if we do reverse back pay attention to the 50 and 38.2 to the upside in the nasdaq let's take a look at uh rty that's the small cap we can see that the small cap we did the iwm and i'm gonna go over it that very that that much we know that was the consolidation we looked up in uh november then we fell down in december we tried to rally back up couldn't make it we felt 100 of this measured move here is the same distance from here to here does this mean we find support in this area to continue higher from the january low of last year so that's rty let's take a look at the dow joe industrial average this only represents 30 the companies in the us part of them is apple caterpillar chevron so pay attention to the channels pay attention to the moving averages this is the measured move on the monthly chart it has not lost the 50 or the 61 if it's going to retest this area and this was the june low and this is the september we retested it rallied back up couldn't take that annual two-year fib you can see this is from 3 20 3 20 20 anchored to this area here we fell through where we tested it fell back in does this mean we continue to the back side here or do we reverse back up pay attention to what the charts offer you let's go do xlk xlk this is the nasdaq 100 similar to the qqq you can see it lost the 116 sma but it is holding the 50. pay attention if it is reversing back up from the you can see the march low the may low anchor to this area we had one anchored here in november area coming back up since we lost it i took it off it was more parallel to this one because you can see the linear regression of channel c it's a little bit more steeper we fell through it so i took it off no longer valid but i kept this one as a reference point at least if we are above and above the 38 i pay attention to it going back up if we below the 50 fibonacci you pay attention to the 61.8 and the 200 sma from this consolidation in the prior june may highs to continue higher in xlk let's take a look at nya the new york composite you can see that the new york composite has been range bound since may of last year after the april push higher we consolidated we looked up double here and we fell back in is this going to consolidate to u-turn at the 38.2 pay

attention to it so let's take a look at that t and x the interest rates um what i want to do this is the 10-year treasury we can see that it spiked up yet on friday fell back in it created an annual high next to the ief in relationship to the 17 year no you can see that the bottom we bottom down trying to reverse on the r value of that bond so let's take a look at now um we can take a look at the vix the vix this is very important for you for everyone to notice the vix slow for the year was about 1410 the high for last year was around the 37th we have fallen down every time we have a spike up we fall we have a spike up we fall we spiked up twice here but last couple of days were lower highs you can see it we are in a symmetrical triangle i can re-anchor this channel here so everyone can have a better idea we'll keep it y and this one from here i can do the sharper one from here to the scandal as long as we are either above this channel here inside this range we are in consolidation we have to pay attention if we end up spiking above the 30 120 32 area to 34 32.50 then after the races the market will collapse if we fall back in range we pay attention to the back side of the 21 50 22 area as well as the 19 20 range in nepex so trey we're gonna trade what we see we have no bias opinion other than understand the risk involved and this is the fear gauge you can look at the bix uv x y v x x slash bx which is the futures of the vix let's take a look at arc management a r k k um we don't wanna you know be a little bit aggressive on arc management on invesco this was the rally from at the march low eventually she created a high in january december of the prior year and ever since then since it's holding different technology company different mid cap different small cap she really got whacked very hard and the fund is below the annual low or the prior year you can see that it lost most of its value if i grab it this high here to the slow here you can see that the low it has lost more than 57 of its value and the high to low here you can see it it made 126 percent but to this area a lot of people that brought from here all the way up have lost their money because you can see that rally up we are in this area where it started in june of 2020. does this mean that this fund has to find the value at the 38.2 feb and the advanced decline line

range of the 60 dollar in order to reverse back up i'd like to see the fund itself not being harmful to it to to the fund i'd like to see that it finds support at the 38 and the 50 in this range in order to reverse back up from the mean going back higher because it's got different ways of asset management different risk and a lot of people you know just they i was the one of the people that bashed it and i was right about it it doesn't mean that every money manager does the right thing for everyone so invesco uh phb fund as well falling down from 19 all the way to 18 i just wanted everyone to pay attention to it and i don't know if i did the tnx but i will put it next to the qqq in relationship to the qqq you can see the difference in the fund pay attention if there's going to be any reverse mean and the last one i'll do xle and i'll go back to the s p 500 xle which is the energy sector has created an annual high this week we have to pay attention is this going to continue as well as the defensive stocks so let's go aapl we can see apple is right there consolidation amazon we can see it fell down try to reverse back from from that linear regression up channel we have to pay attention if it's going to find support let's take a look at facebook after the earning report it has been bashed to timbuktu there's a gap here from the prior year i had marked it here pay attention to this gap if it finds support to u-turn so this is more important to me that's facebook let's take a look at the google i'll go to blackstone this is google l you can see where google l the 38.2 is as well as you know it's a little bit coming back in does that find support or not we have to pay attention to it that's google let's take a look at blackstone bx blackstone has found a little bit of uh resistance after the uh rally back up it kind of hit the adx dmi crossing couldn't uh get through it it tested it more than a couple of times eventually fell back down is it going to find support at 115 to 117 to find support and break out bit boeing this is ba pay attention to bone it's been in that linear regression down channel for a while the midpoint of it is right here if it finds support and reverses back above that linear regression and clears the 116 sma that's great for boeing let's take a look at lockheed martin lmt lockheed martin on the annual trot has created an annual high after the breakout of last week and a week and a half ago and it filled 100 of that gap we finally got up there does this mean it's a double top or triple top in order to reset back to the back side of this channel in order to continue higher pay attention to lockheed martin and we'll do dis i'll just do disney you can see where disney at uh it's at the bar at the bottom of that midpoint linear regression channel halfway between the upper and lower right in this area between the low that's the high that's the midpoint of it does it reverse it clear the 50 sma on all or does it fall back to the 100 let's take a look at a roku roku had a bad earning fell very sharply down it's uh below the annual feb on the charts does it find the 38.2 feb or the 23 in order to reverse back to that linear regression and clear the 18 sma let's take a look at tesla in relationship i'm not going to go through neo or anything tesla is below the prior year january hi we have to pay attention if this is going to be the line in the sand on tesla in order to recover and break out of that symmetrical triangle you can see i have a symmetrical triangle or is it going to fall back to the 116 simple moving average in the 200 which is the back side of this channel we're going to pay trade what we see so this is an idea it's in compression pay attention to that january high or the 50 percent fib if it clears it and going back up to the 18 simple moving average or does it fall through this channel and the 116 sma to fill back the back side of this channel and let's go back to es es is the last one on my line we'll go back to that fortune 500 we're going to do it on a 45 45 day range we can see that i had these over we retested we double top here remember we talked about it earlier the 45 uh 86 and this was 45 85 one point difference is almost identical for me one point doesn't make a difference we fell back in we're trying to consolidate we tried to look up we fell back down on friday maybe this is because of the ukraine washer situation we had a linear regression up channel here that we broke through we fell to a fan if you put a fan up here i'll show you how to use it you can anchor it from here to this channel you can see where we fell does it find support in this area to go back up or not we can do it that way remove drawing or you can make it a little bit more sharper where we can see that it fell through this channel i'm looking for a possibility of a u-turn i'm not saying it has to happen because if it doesn't reclaim the backside of this channel and back at the 4400 it's going to be a little bit harder holding on it may fall back to the monthly measured mode 50 and the 50 annual fibonacci of that consolidation before the rally up came back in consolidated rallied up fell back in consolidated made a lower high we've been making lower highs ever since this these two last weeks so does this mean we can reverse back pay attention to what it's offered to you don't be biased take it day by day week by week month my month find the setups that will help you accomplish your goals you can only invest in your self not someone else someone else can't do it for you if you have any questions ask us hit us up take care enjoy the long weekend i see you sharp on tuesday

2022-02-27 12:29

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