Peter Webb - Bet Angel - World Cup Russia 2018 mega video

Peter Webb - Bet Angel - World Cup Russia 2018 mega video

Show Video

So. I don't know if you're aware or not but apparently, there is a big football tournament, that. Is about to, start and, you. May have seen in the press I don't know there hasn't been that much coverage if it has there but, putting, the joking aside yes, it's the World Cup it's absolutely huge and it's, a great opportunity if you're a bet, fair trader and, I know there been lots videos and articles done, but, what I wanted to do for you is to appraise, and show, you what's happened in. Previous pod cups to give you a steer on what I think will happen in. This world anyhow. Let's, have a look at, those, statistics. Please. Like and comment on the video below that. Will allow me to produce better, quality videos and more of them in the future, so, my first World Cup was in 1978. And, when. You look, at, each. World Cup you always have a memory and I think you can summarize most, World Cups with one, word so 78, for me was, Gamal England. Didn't play, Scotland. Did an Archie Gemmill scored that wonderful goal against, the Dutch 1992. Would, be keegan, mr sitter against spain. 1986. The, hand of god so that would have to be Maradona. 1990. Gaza. 94. I think, the word would have to be absent, because England, weren't, there in 1994. But. And, in 98 we've got Owen it's going out wonderful goal against, Argentina, but all of my memories of, the, World Cup are punctuated, by sort, of specific. Moments, that that occur. 2006. Was. Joe Cole, scoring. Against Sweden I remember, it so well because. We. Were in a pub the ball came out of this Swedish, box and, everybody just went shoot and, he did for once in his life somebody shot and it flew in the back of the name. 2010. Vuvuzela. You. Can bring it all these memories come flooding back whenever you look at it each individual, tournament and of course we. Look at the last tournament in 2014. And, there. Are still three things fresh in one memory from 2014. One. Was, Suarez. Bite. Shalini, and if. I remember so well because, Belfort for. Once had a sense of humor and they actually put and changed. Their logo, immediately. After the incidents which I thought was quite funny, but. Also when, you look at. The. World Cup. Especially. 2014, I mean 7 1/2 Germany was. The, most remarkable match I think I've ever seen because, everybody, thought that Brazil were geared up and we're gonna win the World Cup and.

Excuse. The pun but Germany. Absolutely Mullard them and, so. Wonder why that expression comes home I'm gonna have to google that now and figure out exactly what that is but, it, was pretty remarkable, and, I just remember watching that how much completely. Open mouthed it was just I've, never seen such a complete. And utter humiliation, of a team it was incredible, you, also get memes that come out of the World Cup so in 2014. It was things, that Tim Howard safe that. Was absolutely hilarious and you, know I've forgotten a prior World Cups exactly. You. Know some of those moments from there but generally speaking it's, defined by a particular moment so of course you know I'm really looking forward to seeing what, that particular moment will be will, it be, Harry. Kane lifting, the, World Cup with. A unexpected. England win we. Can we can but hope can we and it. Looks like we're not going to be able to see the World Cup in the UK, for, a very long time so we're talking 2030. 2034. Could. Be the earliest we could ever see the, World, Cup come to the UK so I think in 2026. I'm gonna be heading off to the us/mexico. And so on to watch it over there because. It's one of the things that I still haven't managed. To do that I really think that I need to do any annelids Park all of that I don't know why I'm rambling about it was it just popped into my head when. I was thinking about previous. World Cups and I'm generally, getting overexcited, only. To be laid down within. 10 days or so so, yeah I apologize to that but I do you know I it's just it punctuates, my life those. Particular moments and this. Year will will, no doubt do the same as well hopefully for the right reasons, but. From a trading perspective, one of the problems that we have is that there aren't actually. That many, World Cups that have taken place within. The the. Sports trading, universe, so far so, 2006. 2010. And 2014. I've, got data on all three because I've been around for all three and. Some. Common, themes sort of tend to run through them and things, that I've seen the problem is because we've got such a small sample size you can't, really. Believe. If, you're a statistician that you can extrapolate, trends, from there but there are things. That seem to happen so. I'll. Give you my opinion on the, way this stuff happens and what I think is the reason behind it because it's important, to not make up those. Connections, and it's important to have some logic that runs through but. The world the first stack that I'm going to throw at you is that the world cup is absolutely. Immense. It's huge it's absolutely, massive and you. Would have known that already but you wouldn't have known the number so how much do you think was turned over on the, World Cup in 2014 what, was the total matched bet to turn over for all World Cup markets in. 2014. The. Total is. 3.3. Billion. So. It is very. Very big, and, that. Means that the volume will be big on an individual, basis, and. You. Know there will be lots. Of money sloshing around all of the markets so it's almost certain that you'll find a market that you like that you can trade that's liquid enough to do interesting things with but. As with a lot of things if you're used to trading domestic. Football and then suddenly you turn up with a World Cup it's gonna feel very different it's like looking. At a linked field on a Tuesday. Evening in the summer and then comparing it to a Royal Ascot if you're into racing they, are very different and they behave slightly different as well so things that I can do on. Domestic, football I can't, do in the World Cup but there are things you can do in the World Cup they can't do one domestic football but it's all gear around volume, volatility. In the way that the markets behave and there, are two different sort of general. Approaches, I think in terms of the way that you should look at these particular markets because they do behave differently, I've. Got some notes here but if, we look at the group stages in, 2014. Each, match before. The match started, two turned over about six million, now. Obviously he had, had the in plate Otis on there we'll have a look at those in a second in.

The Quarters it was about eight to. Nine million, the. Semi-final, was about nine million and. In the final. Or. The semi-final, between Brazil and Germany because Brazil what the host country was, twelve and a half million before, the match had started, and then, the final was about twenty million, so. That gives you an idea of how the market, sort of scaled up and goes from there the biggest group, game. It's. Not a trick question this, but have it have a guess which match was the biggest group game of 2014 you probably won't even remember the fixtures so, I'll narrow, the focus for you even more which. Country. Who, was playing in a group match had the most amount of money matched. Before the, match had actually started have. A guess think, of one of the countries in the. World Cup in 2014. And. Then say yeah that would have been the match that had the biggest amount matched. It. Was England V Italy so, one of the themes that you find is that, typically. And. And it is slightly unusual but. Sort of you, know, I suspect, that this is the reason but, if you look at the European teams the big nations, like Portugal Spain Germany, and, particularly. Big betting countries, like the UK then, what you'll actually find, is that. They. Tend to attract most of the volume so if you actually look at, I'm. Pretty sure I've got a graphic. Of it if you actually look it's ranking, the amount of money it was matched to play a team and then, you plot the group stages and, the semi-final, and you know where they gots to within the competition, you'll find some of those European teams towards the top of that list and if you look at the bottom of that list its countries here in different time zones who don't, have that much betting activity, don't have betting age changes and so on which sort of makes sense really so, it tells you immediately that, you know the big big, matches are going to be later, on within. The tournament, but, also even. Earlier in the tournament the ones that will bubble to the top of the list would, be those big footballing, betting, nations, that sort of makes perfect sense really it doesn't have nothing you could probably work that out without looking at a spreadsheet but. There's confirmation for you're near that is definitely the case. The. Money tends to accrue. At peak viewing times as well so if you get an odd starting, time in the middle of the afternoon or late at night or something but. I can tend to affect liquidity, but, that early evening game especially if it's an England match will. Attract. An enormous, amount of liquidity into, the market now, I'm not going to trade on England matches I'm a trade pre off but. I'm not going to trade in, play simply because, I'll. Properly you know I want to enjoy I'm gonna have some people around we can have some beer we're gonna watch the match we're gonna moan, like anything, and then celebrate a glorious victory, on. Penalties, not but. Yeah. So I'm not going to get involved in it from that particular perspective you know I would happily, sacrifice. You. Know watch here a little bit of money to be able to watch England in, fact it would have been nice perhaps to go to Russia I've got some friends there going, but, such is life that's you know that that's the some of the sacrifices you have to make I will get the opportunity at some point from pretty sure of that so. Yeah England matches, and. Peak. Viewing times and where, you get multiple, matches going off at the same time liquidity, just gets thinned out of it so you can have to pick and choose your targets carefully there so if you've got many matches you, know at, or around the same time then. The, liquidity, is going to thin the money will get spread across multiple markets you don't have to focus on the one as. Details, before on this particular video, so. Yeah pre offer you tends to get some very big. Markets. They tend to generate a lot. Of liquidity, I've, just been having a look at the first match that's about to take place and if you look at the ladder you'll, find there's lots of money stacked, above and below it and most, of the money's being traded in around a 3 tick range it's just bumping up or down and that's, typical, of the sort of markets the attend to get at the World Cup so. What I tend to do it work out is I shop a load of money into my account and. Then I'll actively trade pre off quite aggressively, by aggressively I mean use, lots of money, because. The market we always knows better than you so you can't attempt. To influence that however. If there's going to be a lot of activity, in the market then that or. Tend to make. The markets just that little bit more tradable, tradable. In the sense of if something, goes wrong the prices and can go flying away from you so a big. Difference in the World Cup is obviously, team news tends to be pretty limited so, what you tends to find because the markets are very stable as flat as a pancake for a long period of time unless if there's some unusual team use so, in 2014, we had an, injury to Neymar, and that, did cause the price to spike but generally, speaking, both.

Sides Are going to be putting out the best possible, teams and the, market will discount the. Chance of them winning fairly accurately and then, and there won't be much of a difference of opinion especially because it's on a neutral ground as well so you tend to find the predominant, characteristic as their market tends to be pretty flat tends to be pretty flat you, know explain why in a second if. You look at the amount of money that's traded. About. 40%. Of total money within the market is. Matched pre off and about sick d % in place so for marketers, 4, million pre. Off you can expect it to reach about 10 million by the end of the match the subject to what goes on within the match because if the match swing, was backwards and forwards between the two teams the volume will inevitably arise. So. Yeah there's quite a few different characteristics, there in terms of the. Overall numbers. That you expect to see at the World Cup the, biggest market is always match odds and then over, and unders and then correct, score and there's a whole plethora of other markets, behind there ok, one thing that's unusual. About, this year well there are several things are news about this year Betfair have multiple, Asian Handicap markets, they have goal-line markets, and, we also have, var. We have video refereeing so, one of the things. That you'll tends to see this time around is that, those. Markets may get liquidity, to the detriment of other markets, but. Var is, going, to throw in a whole. Gamut. Of, possible. Opportunities, I think the variability, with an individual, matches in play this year will be much higher than it has been before so I expect the in play volumes to be a bit higher but, my angle, on var would. Be, that. Some. Unexpected, things are going to happen so every time that the. Video ref is, called and the, ref draws, a rectangle, in the air, then. I'm going to be looking to, jump on the back of that because I think that people who, are trying to get ahead of the clock will probably jump on things really quickly and take, a little bit of time to adjust to var, so I'm willing to have a go that I'm going to throw a bit of money in there and see what happens and I think there'll be a few really, really odd. Prices. Matched when a decision is not absolutely, clear because the only way to beat. The, in play timer is to anticipate when. There's a strong attack and then if the goal goes in and the market suspends, and clears out and then, it goes to the video ref that's. Gonna be great fun I should imagine and, you would imagine it's going to happen a few times as well but very early on I think I'm going to be watching those markets, very very closely gathering, some data just, seeing how the market reacts when, those sort of situations develop but I think that will be a big opportunity but. There are plenty of opportunities within, there so. Let's talk about a few of those so. One of the things to note about the word cup is that obviously. The liquidity is, very very high but everybody has, limited. Banks. In which they can use and as, you know I will tend to switch sports depending upon where I think the best opportunity, is so. If, I see a football match. Lasting. 90 minutes what I actually see, a nine, horse. Races, ten minutes apart and I. Suggest, that you look. At things the same way in terms of where you want to pick and choose where your targets are and obviously you'll perform differently at different sports. So I expect to get something out of racing I may not get something out of football but. Mmm, I'll try and get until I know now. You see this occurring, within the market as well, so. When England are playing or when there's a big World Cup match on you see the liquidity drop off a bit on other, sports and you'd see the liquidity drop off a bit on racing so, yeah keep your eye even if you're not trading the World Cup on looking.

At What other sports events are in and around a particular, time because you may have a knock-on effect. On there however, a few years ago what, actually did was I mapped out to. See where the biggest drop-off is and the interesting thing is when there's a major football tournament, on you. Tend to see a drop-off on tennis now some, of that may be a bit coincidental in, terms of the timings, because typically you tend to see that but you actually see that football and tennis, tends. To negatively correlate. When. There are major tournaments, on which I thought was quite interesting I've, got a graph from it somewhere which I'll put up but you'll actually see that there's a correlation between or. A negative correlation between, turnover. On tennis and turnover, on football. So. Yeah you will notice the markets go a little bit we get especially during. The England games because a lot of people will take the focus off of certain markets, to, tune in to, whatever the big World Cup matches that's, currently taking place so. There are lots of opportunities within the World Cup and, we. Need to go, through them and talk about things, that will and won't work, but. The, thing that I always do during the World Cup is our trade pre off beat simply because as I just mentioned you know there's loads of acquitting, in the market as loads of money coming through so, it gives you the opportunity to effectively. Trade them and, why not do that if there's enough money there now there will be loads of money on either side of the we'll be surprised how quickly it does eat through and, typically that the risk is lower than you would have with traditional, matches because the market isn't going to move that much so every. World cup that I've traded so far I've done pretty well and I'm just trying to get some of those bigger totals. Done pre off and. The advantage, of doing that is when you get some bigger. Totals, pre off then you can just take the money in play and do whatever you like with it with very little risk so you throw abandon to the wind and just. Do some ridiculous. Things if she really wants to but. So you know it's nice to hold on to that money anyway so yeah I will trade most, of those markets, pre often it works pretty, well I've, done. It for many years now every time that there's a big championship, tournament. Around I will be, active and in the market that way although. Typically, I don't, tend to trade England why well. Because I'll be wanting to watch them and enjoy the experience, if you can call it that. So I'll probably have a few friends around a few beers and I. Will, probably forego, the opportunity, to trade England including pre off because. It's. You know a bit rude isn't it, to. Sit behind your desk and then just nip downstairs as the match kicks off who, knows maybe I will get the opportunity to do that we'll have to see but probably, not on this occasion but. I will have. A look at the England markets and there is a trend if you do want to trade them when, you're not going to be watching them in getting drunk don't trade drunk, in. It, when you look if we go back to that wonderful campaign, that we had in 2014 where we didn't win a single group, stage we had 2-1, loss to Italy, a 2-1 loss to Uruguay, and, we drew nil-nil with, Costa Rica you know what a fantastic, set of results that was, however. If you look at the pre off graphs if we look at their match against Italy, can. You see there's a pattern of activity here England were backed quite heavily before. The start of the match and then, if we flip this and look at the Uruguay. Odds. Or the England odds against, Uruguay I should say you. Can see pretty much the same thing happen there so it seems to be I mean if you're an England fan. Would. You back the, opponent, no would. You back to draw nobody's interest in the drawer so would you back England and what seems to be happening more often than not as people go oh you know what we could win this, and then the money goes down so it's interesting but England do predominantly, get backed and. That's. Something to look out for if you're gonna actively trade but, generally, you know you don't tend to see that much movement unless there's something unusual going on within. The market. Now. What about backing. A big.

Outsider And, trading. Them back into the market as they progress through the torment how does that work, well, the interesting thing is it actually works pretty badly, so. It's, just a word of warning basically. If. You're looking at a tournament like the World Cup had seeded so you, know all of the top teams they've. Lined. Them up across the group so they've got weak teams to play and then they can progress to the next round and so on so, that when they reach the final you've got two decent teams that people want to watch there'll. Be a big TV audience, the sponsors will be happy. FIFA. Will be happy for, obvious reasons and you. Know that the whole merry-go-round, continues, so, these tournaments are geared up to, granting. The prize to one of those top teams it's incredibly, rare for, a team to come from nowhere to, be able to get through and win that tournament, not, impossible, but, sort of a Leicester, scenario, is much harder in this, scenario because it's seeded so the idea is that as the seats progress they knock out all of the outsiders the way I would put it as seeding crushes, Outsiders it's the same as in tennis you have the two top players and opposite sides of the draw with the intention that they'll meet in the final and pretty, much the same thing happens at, the World Cup but. Obviously with football teams, so. Yeah you know say that team does manage to get through the, group stages then, they'll have a bigger, team to meet in the next round and an even bigger one in the next and then an even bigger one in the next so it could be that, Iceland. Get through the group stages where, they then meet Argentina, and Germany and Brazil, so. The, problem is the market will always discount that you'll always discount the fact that, they've. Got no chance and so, you may see the odd shortened, but probably not dramatically, it, does happen but it. Tends to not. Favor that type of strategy, now. If you add and, of course the eventual winner will probably. Come from that group of the top five to ten and. We'll be 100%, to the market eventually so can you see what's happening there every time each of those teams progresses, they become a bigger chunk of the entire mix that, did make really detailed notes on this in 2014, but it's so complicated to, explain the correlation and the way it works I don't. Think it's gonna fit in a video at all but. Just wanted to warn you about what happens in seated tournaments, so. When. You look at that that's, a, bit annoying however. In. Individual, matches they do tend to create value so. Okay. They may get out of the group stage and then get knocked out at the next level but, on, an individual basis when you look at teams, that, aren't expected, to do that while they do surprisingly. Well but, on an individual, match basis, if you look at the individual matches and you compare the, chance of them actually winning with it actually what happened, you tend to find those a bit of a discrepancy there, so, I've actually done a spreadsheet that. Actually has all of that stuff listed. And. It's too complicated to explain how these numbers have come about but basically it's. How much, they overall, underperformed. And if you look at the teams at the top of the list, they. Tend to be teams that, were. You, know bigger Outsiders, they tend to if you're, betting on them or. Trading on them during a match they tend to create the most amount of value and at the other end of the scale you'll. Find teams that are generally, considered to be higher rated, that, didn't perform as well and that seems to be a theme that runs through the World Cups I've seen this over, the three tournaments, that I've gathered. Data on so far and I suspect, that that's going to continue in this particular tournament pretty pretty, sure it will continue they'll be an outsider that will qualify, from the group stages, unexpectedly. But. That sort of brings us neatly onto the to qualify markets, now you. Tend to see with, what, I've just said, replicated. Within the two qualifier market so laying teams. Who are very very short odds to qualify very, often produces, good results, and. When. You look at it the way to look at the to qualify market, they, say group stages and you. Know it is a group stage where they're playing several, teams but. I guarantee you that the coaches of those smaller. Nations who aren't expected, to progress will be saying to their team or look you, know okay. Have to play each of these teams and the best ones go through but. You know if we get a result in this match, then, we only need a draw on the second one and perhaps we can pull it off in the third and then we're through so.

Their Mentality, will, be like that and they're, going to be viewing it and Ian undoubtedly, they'll be saying look it's not a group it's three knockout matches that's the way to approach this match so you can see how that would work and, that produces, some unexpected payoffs, in there to qualify market, now, I've, got a spreadsheet that I've got, on the to qualify market so I think we should probably just have a look at that and I'll show you what. Happened, in. 2014, but also look. At the video that I did in 2014 about 2010, and you'll be amazed at how similar the, two are and how, the data, between the two look, so similar as well anyhow let's have a quick look at that spreadsheet. So. If we're gonna look at this spreadsheet I should explain exactly, what you're looking at that would be helpful ordinate but. On the left-hand side here we have the minimum odds that were traded, in. The, two qualifier market, over certain groups and, on the right hand side we have the odds at which they started. To. Qualify at that particular group so for example in Group, A in 2014. We had Brazil went. Off at 109 or thereabouts and, you, can see that they qualified, because, they have a one above saying that they qualified, and. They. Traded at odds of 101 because they qualified they would definitely qualify and therefore the odds would eventually end up for 101 but. If we look at Croatia they were 2.4. To qualify so you can see the, market thought it was going to be Brazil and Croatia and, you. Can see Croatia traded, as low as 145. But. They're under, this column here which is 0 they. Didn't qualify so. You can see here Brazil and Mexico qualified. But, Croatia trading, at 145, did, not, so. If we go down this list here you can see Spain were, 1.3. To. Qualify and they. Reached a low of 112, and didn't. Go through in Group. C 109. 175. Group, D which. Was England's, group you, can see Costa Rica were, 15.5. To. Qualify they. Qualified. Italy. Were 151, to qualify, they didn't qualify England. Were evens to qualify they didn't qualify and, you, can see the trade it'll have of 139. So. Yeah. And. If we go down the theme sort of continues, here Ecuador. 1.4, they reached a low of and. The. Two favourites did qualify in that group two, favorites in Group F were. Argentina. And Bosnia. Herzegovina. I think they was, their proper name and that's World, Cup you. Can see here that Bosnia, traded at 137, but. Didn't qualify. Portugal. In Group G 148. Didn't qualify and. Their 1.7, to. Start Germany, did go through over state eventually won and then, we can see here that Russia, 1.3.

Traded, Our low at and their, 158, to start with and didn't, qualify as well so, it's interesting to see how often teams. Are very short odds don't. Qualify for. The next stage, at. The World Cup and, the. Interesting thing is this is. A, carbon copy if you look at the video I did in. 2014. About, the 2010 World Cup pretty. Similar as well. So. One of the things that permeates, these. Markets, is incentive to score I have done a separate video on incentive, score which if you do go. To youtube and type in betangel incentive to score you will find that but, there, is a huge incentive to score so the markets, are very very variable. Unexpected. Payoffs occur much more frequently than, you would expect because you're. Down to the last 15 minutes you, know what's happening in the other match and you've got to score a goal to, either draw to win or to change, the goal difference and you, will go off and do that because you're only 15, minutes away from. Abject. Failure or, becoming. Famous. Or a meme on the internet through that wonderful goalies call or something like that so, incentive to score is very high and teams and players will. Do, everything they can, apart from England well. I shouldn't say that of it maybe they did that in 20 2014. But maybe this year will be different this time it's different as they say but. Say yeah the incentive score is huge and therefore teams will will go all-out for that and. Also the minor teams will be much more likely to do that as well so, if you if you think about it you know the Garrow in a blaze of glory haven't tried everything, or perhaps they do get that goal they go through and then suddenly their national heroes it's. A much, much. Harder for. The big teams to be able to do that they do if, you look at the way it's geared up you. Would have seen this in previous videos that I've done it's, all about fear of loss, there's. Smaller teams that bigger odds have got nothing to lose if. They go out that's what was expected if they go through they will be absolute, heroes if. The. Bigger, team with, all of the star players that it's expected, to qualify slips up and concedes, a goal or makes a mistake or tries to get. An extra goal and causes. A problem at the other end of the pitch they won't, be heroes there'll be zeros and, we'll. Get a lot of flack for that so yeah think about it when, you're watching a match and, the. Staggered starts sometimes can help, improve this you know if there's something that's happening somewhere else that requires something to happen somewhere else that, can increase that incentive, and things, can go you know it. Won't happen in every match but if you persistently, follow, that strategy, of looking. For those opportunities then, overall you'll probably get a payoff so yeah, big, teams will suffer performance anxiety smaller. Teams won't have that at all and there'll be a massive incentive to score in.

A Number of different places and the staggered starts will very often, creates. Those incentives as well there. Was something, I captured, at, the last World Cup were saying well how could they qualify, and it was well if this team does that and if the fat team does this and this happens and that happens and if they do that then this Gavin's and this is the situation that it unfolds, sometimes. It can get quite complicated but a lot, of time it's quite simple and easy to understand how things. Will progress from there so yeah keep your eye off that and you tend to see that manifested, very well in the two qualifier market so that's a market I'm very interested in that's. The World Cup. So. Yeah there's a few trading ideas for you there and you. Know to summarize, some of those the reasons that I like the World Cup and I get excited about it is. Because, it's huge 3.3. Billion was traded in 2014. Massive. Liquidity, gives you scope to do many different strategies and some that you probably wouldn't, during, the domestic, season. There's. Highly, variable results, and, that's driven by the incentive, score incentive. To score is. Absolutely, immense at the World Cup and then teams will do anything, like it like for example biting. An. Opposing, defender, or saving. The ball with your hands, you. Know strange. Things happen and the. Thing about being highly variable is this year we have video refereeing so that's going to create, all. Sorts of variability it's going to be really interesting to see how that plays out teams. Suffer, from performance, anxiety that, can be. A problem, for teams as they progress through the tournament, or. At certain stages such as penalties but of course we also have penalties in the World Cup and they can be great, to trade as well if you've never traded this before I probably need to do a separate video on those the. Staggered timings in the way that there's an incentive to score or not score improves. The situation as well and, then when we look at England you get this classic herd mentality of, England's predominantly. Being backed in probably. Will happen again this year I'll, mention or talk about it on social, media on the forum when, we begin to see what sort of patterns develop this. Particular year but some of these things I'm expecting, to repeat I. Hate. To extrapolate trends, you know me I'd, hate to do that but there does seem to be a pattern of behavior we've only really had three tournaments, on. Betfair, on on betting exchange. World. Since. Since. They began, so, it's, difficult to say whether these are characteristics. That will remain forever but, I sort of suspect if you look at the detail behind some of these things that. That will probably be, the case and that's exactly, how I'm going to approach it anyway so if. You approach it in the same manner as me then we're both being the same boats together effectively so. Yeah looking forward to the woke up looking forwards to hurricane, lifting. That trophy, on, that final match and. And. Then I woke up but, so my hope whichever team is supporting and whatever you tries to do whatever you try and do with the World Cup and whether you choose to trade or just watch it I, they have a really good World, Cup. You.

2018-06-23 02:59

Show Video


2014 World Cup was my first trading year and I didn't really know what I was doing, but I'm absolutely loving these prematch markets, I'm like a kid in a candy store. Best of luck to you and England.

Slightly more volatile markets this year, but will learn more as the tournament unfold. Good luck to you.

Hello Peter, I have still tried trading after calling it quits a few times, I have paid people for trading information about it and I am still not able to analyse things correctly because trades go against me . I noticed the only trading information for sale about any of the markets is the tennis trading course. I need help with horse trading but do not see any courses about that on the academy. Can I get some information with horse trading from yourself, as I have listened to everybody else and am getting nowhere.

More content will be added in the coming months.

What's the situation with your office? Have you moved location?

Yes, we have been busy kitting it out with all the latest equipment and other related things.

now where on youtube would you get such a quality info. only on mr Webb's channel. Thanks Peter. it amazes me how much stats you keep and how you bend those stats.

Thanks, there is a lot of hard work that takes place behind the scenes so it's nice that you can recognise that, much appreciated.

would be interested if you’ve any stats on penalty shoot outs, not sure if it’s me but whenever the first team misses they seem to win?

I've done a whole load of work on penalties. I did it for a goalkeeping coach.

Vuvuzelas!!!!! Some idiot on my road had one and wouldn't shut up. If he dusts it off this week there will be an Orient Express style murder. There will be a whole host of suspects and we'll all have a hand in it.

A swarm of bees has never sounded the same to me since!

Surely "Mullered" originates in the performances of German ace poacher Gerd Muller?

Perhaps, but I remember using it from when I was really young.

Interesting video Peter, a few more on your best footie strategies would be good (lay 3.5, scalping corners etc).

About 21 minutes in you talk about your detailed notes on the correlation and links between how teams are seeded and how this affects the shape of the markets, I personally would love to see you talk about this either on here or on the forum. Personally, my memory of the 2010 World Cup is that of Lampard striking the crossbar against the Germans. I have never felt emotions like it. A confused 16 year old boy learned a harsh lesson that day about cruelty :')

It was the first time my kids heard me totally lose it. I have so many memories I didn't want to do an hour long video!

Trading video on penalties would be great

I remember last tournament, someone shouted Sterling’s took a tumble...I pulled all my money out of shares, didn’t realise...Boom boom.

I just saw this new video in my youtube feed & though wow a 30min video from Peter & then my heart sank. I used to get quite excited going through your videos because I believed they were helping, but they can't because I dont quite have that critical mass of knowledge to be able to use the information that you so kindly provide to create a way of using betfair/betangel to consistently make it work. This is not one of those comments from someone who trolls youtubes videos or is one of those people that is forever trying & failing at things & just will never get it, this is someone who would really like to make betangel work, but knows it wont work because Im missing the beginner information to get me started with all of those little details that allow me to self teach. I have spoken with the betangel team about having access to mentoring with which he replied that you they don't run such a service at the moment & mentoring is around £800/day in the low season which just does not work & I was left feeling pretty demoralized . The forums in all types of trading are full of people giving one another unproven advise & the products for betfair trading get you started but Im seeing regular stories of people trying for years & not being able to make it work & getting stuck. There has to be a way to create a program where someone who knows how to trade profitably is able to guide new young aspiring traders. They don't have to be millionaire traders, just a few levels up. In teaching trading there is no accountability for the teacher because you pay him money in return for knowledge & if the student can't make it work then its the student at fault. The instructor also walks away from training believing this. HoweverI know of one company that uses a different dynamic by creating a 50:50 profit sharing program where they train to become a professional level poker player & they only get paid if you profit vs other companies that get paid regardless. This means that their profitability increases the more they are able to pass on their knowledge successfully to their student & the student feels like the instructor is really invested in mentoring them rather than clock watching the dollars. The more volume of trades you make & the more effort you put into the group the more coaching & even one to one coaching you get. Its a really nice system. Then when the new traders are successful you have real tangible results that shows the world that ordinary people can make something of themselves & some of those students become the next gen of instructors & growth ensures. There must be away to start something like this in the sports betting & I would do everything to make an opportunity like that to work. I would love to hear your thoughts on this Peter as I know you having been a really positive advocate for exchanges/sports trading for many years. Thanks. Shaun

Have you looked at the material we have been putting on the academy, this is more than plenty to get you to first base? In terms of 'profit share' this more or less sounds like a prop desk scam that often does the rounds in financial markets. You deposit money into an account and get training from a group of 'professional' traders. If you do well they get a cut of your profits, but if you fail you lose your deposit. So they win whatever happens but most just lose their deposit. TBH there is no better teacher than participating in the market in my opinion. Most trading concepts are simple to understand but difficult to execute profitably, so practising the learning and skill required to do that is a really important part of the mix. But its something that very few people are prepared to really do. Most of the market is just populated with people who want to sell you things, so that's why it's easy to get confused. I bet you if you dig under the surface there are very very few people who can actually prove that they actually do what they say. But ultimately that's why my time is so valuable. If you look at my video I posted last week, it's right to the heart of a strategy you can use, but I bet you hardly anybody did that last week. Whereas I made £1k on just one race using exactly the same tactic as laid out in the video to the word. But I bet you the video won't be popular get shared much because it doesn't say, here is how I made £1k in ten minutes. But that also describes where you can find an edge in the market. People just want shortcuts and certainty, whereas trading is uncertain by nature and ultimately that's why people struggle to do it.

Great video! Have you ever done a video on how you go about collecting all your data? I'd love to start recording my own for analysis and finding patterns etc.

I did one on data mining, but I don't think I've listed all the stuff I do on data, there is so much!

You need to be really and I mean really, really careful with ur teory behind VAR and how Betfair handles bets during the time VAR is or might be reviewing whatever they need to review cause since last month Betfair changed they terms and conditions around disalowed goals and goals that are disalowed firstly and then given after the VAR review. Be really careful cause ur position in the markets might be the oposite of what u think cause they will void some bets either on the spot or days later ( I imagine that on the World Cup it would be on the spot tho ).

The evidence so far is that the market is discounting VAR in the way I expected.

Totally agree about being careful with VAR. Betfair have already messed me over once with it and I wasn't even in the market when the VAR was being analysed. Yes it was only a German second tier match but it's still very early days with Betfair's new VAR rules. For example they really messed up continually in Portugal and France particularly this season, so they have to correct it, but their decision to void bets when they see fit is not a good stance.

All World Cup matches will be manually managed by Betfair and a cautious approach will be taken on VAR. Markets will most likely not reopen for betting during VAR consultation. I.e. Team A scores (1-0 up) markets remain suspended until goal is confirmed and match is kicked off. IF markets reopen in that period and the goal is retrospectively disallowed; Time based voids will be carried out on markets from when the markets were active while the goal was under investigation.

You’ve just ruined my entire strategy!

Imagine this scenario. Game 0-0 - "Home" team scores - Market opens before kick-off but u see the replay and spot an offside and the 0-0 CS market goes to 1000 and u back it cause the result will be reviewed to 0-0 again. After a few minutes u close ur position at 2 odd. They cancel ur back bets cause they reviewed their rules on this and will void the back bets and keep the lay bets at 2 and boom, a possible easy profit turned into a loss.

Theres no need to see how Betfair will handle Bets in such big markets/games such as in the World Cup. Take the word of this internet stranger and don't go beserk on betting when u see that a goal is about to be disalowed in VAR cause u saw on the replay that it was offside or whatever cause u might back an impossible correct score at 1000 odd and close ur position at 2 odd for example and they cancel ur back at 1000 and ur liability will be laying that same correct score ladder at 2 odds ( hopefuly the example was clear enough ).

Inevitably we will have to see how it plays out.

Football is shit

You forgot to mention the 2002 World Cup, and your moment of that World Cup would have been the Ronaldinho free kick against David Seaman just my guess.

Less about that free kick, please

I skipped a few or the video would have been even longer.

Hi all at betangel. Is there any chance that trading could lead to addiction, either trading or gambling addiction? Thanks, Kerry

I watched strange addictions on Sky the other night and somebody was addicted to eating sand and another to sniffing petrol with obviously bad health issues resulting from both. So I guess it comes down to personality about what you could get addicted to and why. But can it be addictive, probably? However, I tend to be quite cold and clinical when trading.

Gerd Muller who played for Germany in the 70’s and would destroy opponents with all the goals he would score, and, knocked England out of the 1970 World Cup, unfortunately he Mullered them.

Quick question, I'm just starting out with Betfair trading. I'm torn between purchasing Caan Berry's video pack & sports trading life dymanic football trading pack. Both £147. Does anyone know which one is better?

If you are just starting out, stop searching for a golden bullet, put that money in your Betfair account and start participating in the market. There is loads of advice and support on this channel and in our forum and on the academy for free that should give you a good grounding. Most people lose money when they start trading so preserve your capital to use in the markets.

It's 1950's prison slang for being beaten up. Origin unknown. But there is a stem mul~ derived from the verb 'to die' in Sanskrit (the origin of Romani) so possibly even older. I'm not sure why I typed all that, i'm sure you've got google too.

Peter i love your videos but please get to the point quicker please!

Firstly massive thank you for replying. This is a very thoughtful post. Yes I have looked into the material & I have an idea of how betfair trading works, but I also have four years experience in poker & Ive taken the journey you are describing & I could not turn it professional. I could not turn it professional because I was lacking knowledge & the right people to sound board & was unable to figure out alone how to make consistently +EV decisions with full confidence that the mathematics backed up the decision. I was learning from forums, friends, video training packages, the odd coach with their own ideas of how they think its best to play but nothing that was a solidified theory. When I found betangel I saw the opportunity but at the same time Ive done that "4 year" journey & I know exactly whats going to happen without mentoring & a group of dedicated traders who are all at similar levels pushing themselves. You likely have this atmosphere in your office & I know something similar could be made available to others. It would be the first of its kind in betfair trading & it would move mountains in changing the way betfair education is conducted at the moment. I do really appreciate that you are making videos & some of them can be step by step, but theres a caveat. I bet you would be shocked if you sat 10 people down, asked them to watch not just the video you mentioned but a range of your videos or any youtube betfair based video & then you silently without saying anything watched how they actually interpreted the information & applied it in a real setting without guidance & then when you asked them to explain their reasoning behind each decision based off their current understanding of watching the online material you would find their is a monstrous gap in understanding or which is even more sneaky they kind of get it & then you give them feedback & they start to get it but imagine you weren't there to give them feedback & over a thousand situations & the effect of chinese whispers would then in the end leave them with that monstrous gap. I see this all the time in freediving & it can take months for me to get an athlete to the level where they can self teach, without that they all get lost & before I commit to trading I want to set everything up to increases the chances of becoming a successful professional trader just like you & Im not looking for quick ways or tricks to make money easily. Im looking to work really hard, spend all night long running through spreadsheets, reading theory & discussing my decisions to a very detailed level day in & day out for years, but Im only ever going to be able to fully go through that journey if I believe that the resources I have are enough to make that real. Without that confidence as soon as a few downswings come, its going to chip away at me & Im going to constantly want to quit & question what Im doing because thats what any sane person would do. But when there are times when Im learning & losing money or Im not figuring things out or Im in a plateau or nothing seems to be working, but I have the right guidance & they have the broader picture overview of where Im going then of course Im going to keep going & learning & trusting in the process. The profit sharing idea is running as we speak, called coaching for profits & its the only setup of its kind: BPC track every bet you make & at the end of the month you have submit your data & 50% of your profit. The contract ends when you complete the amount of money you signed up to make which is £60k. Thats real life changing money even if you only get to take half & you pay BPC £30k for your tuition. This is the only way I could think of that would allow me access to either yourself or someone like yourself becasue then it's starts to become more worth their time. I currently live in Egypt to train here in Dahab in the blue hole as a freediving athlete to compete for the UK & for me to play poker online in Egypt doesnt work even with a VPN. So this year I learned about trading betfair who have no issues while Im living a training full time in Egypt to allow me to use their services. Gordon who owns BPC "best poker coaching" started with a few very dedicated people & got them to a level where they completely independent players. Some of those students now teach for him. You could do the same. Your time is valuable yes & so is your knowledge & people need your help. Its definitely possible for you to train someone within house to then mentor people like myself & you can oversee that process. Its possible & it shouldnt take too much time, a couple of sessions a week is all it will need to start with. I believe once you've finished moving the office, you could trial something simple to begin with & not financial risk to you. I'm grinding out a bank roll as we speak right from the bottom of the pit with match betting & I'm pulling all nighers doing it & Ive been doing this for 2-3months & Im telling you Im hungry to learn some real trading. I would be so greatful even if you sent a specific task or challenge, something that any one can do, I'll do it & write it up neatly, discuss my thinking, my results & make it easy for you or someone in your office to check & quickly give a few minutes feedback I will make the most of that information & be as respectful as possible of other peoples time & energy. I really really want to make this happen & be apart of what could be a huge shift in how as a community we go about providing the best sports trading education in the world. I hope this message finds you well. Shaun

Other news