Options Trading Weekly Watchlist | Stock Analysis | 21 September 2020
What's going on traders and welcome to this week's episode of the weekly watch list. In the weekly watchers i do a technical analysis, and give you some of my thoughts on the tickers up here on the left we have the broad market compressive, spy the queues in iwm. After that we look at some companies we've got apple netflix tesla alibaba, facebook nvidia microsoft, and amazon. In this week's video we are gonna check out the volatility. Just because i think it's playing an interesting role especially the fact that we've had a red week, we're also gonna do a quick fire round through some of these options candidates, that were mentioned by discord, members, if you want to be part of the process that votes on these tickers feel free to join, it is linked down below in the description of this video along with all of our other free resources. Jumping right into our spy weekly chart talking about candle structure and location. As always for structure we've got an upper wick that's just as large, as our body, and a smaller, lower wick so the same implications, here as an inverted hammer candle, our upper wick wears it at in terms of location, right at the retest, once again of our support trend line so huge failure by the bulls, to get it back above we'll remove that from our charts because obviously on two rejections, it's no longer really in play. We are still firmly, in a downtrend, if we look at where we closed this week it was actually below, the low of the prior week's range so noteworthy, for the bulls, we still have our lower lows going on right so lower lows lower lows, we have two equal highs here so watch out for that next lower high to potentially continue, our downtrend. One thing i do want to bring up before we go over and look at some levels on the daily is going to be our fibonacci, retracements, which we talked about in last week's video we had them on the chart, i mentioned that on any break and closed below are 38.2.
Always Target that next up 50, retracement, and where did this week's low, go exactly, to the 50, so if you caught it short to the downside, or caught the bounce on friday afternoon after that key support. Then congratulations. So i'm gonna remove a few of these gap marks here which are no longer in play so one and, two, come on, and, what we're left with is a little bit clearer of a picture, of things to look at there's a lot of psychology, to talk about in here which we'll get to in just a moment but for now the levels to pay attention to only gap remaining on the chart below now is going to be from 327.75. To 326.61. Anything underneath that next target's going to be our shelf down here at 319.50. Next one up will be 312.81. To the upside watch out for this 50 sma which is slowly going to start to round over, maybe something like that but it will almost coincide with our 335, 72, so watch out for a super resistance, there, another level i want you to have on your chart is going to be 339.08. That's the previous, all-time high, and the key to really any more upside is going to be our pressure cooker top that's starting to form here at 342.50. If we can close above that then there's a bunch of reasons why i think we could potentially, see a huge rally to the upside first one being, is that there's the potential for a short squeeze anyone who's short in here. Should if they're a good trader have a stop loss up here and when their stops get hit they have to buy to exit their positions. Boom initiating, the short squeeze to the upside first target, our 349, quarter and then of course like we just mentioned all-time high is really anything after that, in terms of the psychology, that i wanted to unpack, in here and why i think we could potentially, see higher as opposed to lower. We have a huge sell-off right emotionally, driven selling, we have a double bottom that gets put in which is generally the weakest. Sort of pattern if you will they usually always get taken out, and then on this day here so last friday. We have a hammer candle that prints where we take out those lows and see no, really uh, initiation, to the downside so sellers are really unconfident. In confident, unconfident. One or the other here. And there was no real follow through to the downside we consolidate, balance for a few more days, and just now we're starting to break out to the downside. So, again. I think that, the double bottom is the improper way to end the auction with no follow through on that first break, i think that set things up for you know some, some skepticism. From the bulls and bears if you will they weren't sure if they wanted to take it lower and now closing below this could be the proper end to the auction where we see things go out on a bang, boom there's failure here at the top of this gap and now we reverse. I mentioned in the intro that we want to look at the vix and the reason being if we look at the action on thursday and friday specifically, we have an update on thursday. And a pretty significant, down day on friday right that range is pretty large compared to some of these up days, uh it's right in line with some of these other down days if you will, so take a quick mental snapshot, of what's going on there. Got it hopefully you do now we'll go over to the vix which measures, the fear, and volatility, in the market, and what you'll notice if we look at specifically, thursday, and friday, we had an update, on thursday in the market, so volatility, should have actually been going down it did go down, and then the next day friday when, we had a down day in the market volatility, should have gone up. But instead it went down so the fear just isn't here in the market and normally, what you need to get any sort of major flushes, through these key levels or really, you know. This right here to get another one of those you need fear to be increasing, and that's just not the case, and one of the reasons why i think that this could potentially, resolve, to the upside. Jumping on over to the cues i've cleaned up the chart a little bit i'm not going to go through the same psychology, here but it all is relatively, the same i think the key upside, uh sort of breakout point is going to be our 280, 25, level anything above that could send, again the short squeeze, on a rampage, up to our next key resistance, at 292.73. Then all-time highs. We're slightly below, um. You know the trend is a little different here right we don't have equal lows from here and here so here and here is what i meant to mark off there.
And Instead we have more of a something that looks like this, downtrend, that we're in so play the channel here on the breakout to the upside or downside. For supports, below we want to see if we can get back above our 268. 21, first to see if we can consolidate, further in the zone, but if that doesn't happen and we see a rejection, here, first target friday's low here at 2, 62, 62. Anything underneath, and we have our 256. 87. After that if i'm not mistaken. Uh yep, so our 246. 45, level comes from back here as resistance, and then our previous all-time high like in spy, the 33908. Level is going to be our 237. 37.. And last but not least checking in on iwm, russell 2000, and our small caps and what you'll notice here is that this paints a completely, different picture than what we're seeing in the s p and the qs so what we have here rather. Is a. Few days of balance, and now we're sort of balancing, and finding acceptance, above, so this is more bullish than the rest of our charts we're still maintaining. Above our support trend line as a matter of fact we printed a hammer candle off of it on friday, so things are looking pretty good here for iwm, and small caps if we can see continuation, higher, our first key resistance, is going to be at 1.5623. Above that you can see boom we have this breakout level, at 158. Just about and then next up is going to be 160, the whole dollar. If this breaks and again keep in mind we have support trendline, and 50 sma so super support here, on any sort of retest if it breaks look for a filling up of the triangle if you will down to retest our lows, at 149. Underneath that we have. A, little intermediate, level in there we'll get the right tool. Uh, boom, we have that level there at. 147.66. Anything underneath and i think that, you know this is actually pretty choppy we'll get that level out of here, and we'll focus more. On this one here we'll activate, that and bump it up a little bit to reflect more of those wicks, i think that and the 200 sma there at 145. Half is going to be a more likely support, if you've made it to this point in the video i'm sure you're enjoying the analysis, hit the thumbs up button and also subscribe to the channel that way you know every single time i drop a new video so leave an apple slightly zoomed out just to show you where i'm anchoring, the first trendline, touch to boom, boom and now we're just starting to get into it right now so i'll zoom in just a little bit. And what i want you to notice is that we've filled this gap so we'll get rid of the top of it but what i also want to keep on there is the bottom portion of it because that's acting as a super support here with our support, trend line, so if we can get a bounce first touch bounce out of this level which i think is likely given the oversold, nature the last four days of apple if we can get a bounce out of here, looking at a first target and retest, here at 1 10 17, 50 smas, there as well look for super resistance. Anything above that we have our. 113. 14. Key set of lows in here should act as resistance, on the way back up next level we again we can just sort of walk these up, 115.88. And then again the key sort of pressure cooker top if you will is going to be at 119, the whole dollar, to the downside if it breaks and fails though again remember what i've been saying about the chop that should happen, in this area of the chart because this is the gap up from earnings i imagine a lot of people will want to defend their positions. Expect the chop in here between, 106. And. 193. Cents anything underneath, and that next gap could fill down here to 96. 31.. So up next we have netflix, which has already broken its support trendline we've talked about that in last week's video, and right now there is a gap that remains above so if that gap fills we're looking at anything over, 478.
Just About fills to, 483.74. Anything above is going to be sort of another back test of our support trendline, and resistance, area at, 496.66. If you can clear that, again keep in mind the 50 sma is going to start to slowly crash down on that that should be a, super super resistance, right we have back test. Horizontal, and, sma. Anything above though and look for this key area of resistance, to act on your charts at 5 10 84.. To the downside, if we break down below and get acceptance, below our 467. Whole dollar just about you can see there's no acceptance, right because no body's closed below, but if we do get acceptance, lower, look for a flush pretty big time all the way down here to 427.82. So tesla, is sort of going against the grain here you can see that it's moving up as opposed to the market which is sort of consolidating, sideways, and or down, so value being established, higher up here a couple days of balance if you will four days of essentially sideways, action didn't really gain or lose anything. Uh if this can break out higher again just based on doubling rules i think we're pretty good shape to retest the 50249. All-time high anything underneath, though, i think that sets up a clean move down here to our three. 393. Support however, again keep in mind 400, psychological, support as well, with battery day coming up again huge news event i'm sure anyone who's trading tesla is aware of it, um you know i this is probably one of those things where it's by the rumor and sell the news so on battery day there could be something that comes out that moves price, way outside of the confines, of what i've just outlined for you guys so keep that in mind if you do plan on trading it. So alibaba, was actually looking pretty good last week it was holding on to its support trendline forming some lower wicks around it but as you can see on thursday, and friday it's left us a nice little gap above, and it has broken support trendline, failing on the retest there on friday. Uh probably in the morning there so, failure there it looks like we could potentially start a new downtrend, right we have a, high here, a lower high which is now set here lower set of lows here we'll need to see lower lows for the downtrend, to be confirmed, so look for targets, around here, at the 50 sma, and or anything, underneath, our 265. 69, area this support, zone if you will in here. That could confirm, our daily downtrend, if we go lower than that look for levels at, 257.73. And then again we talked about all the chop and nastiness, that's in here so pick the levels out that you want but, 252.01. Is a pretty key one 246. And 241.50. To the upside if we can battle back up and above our support trendline key resistance it's going to be at 283.76. Anything above, 292.33. So facebook, just like apple i want to leave it zoomed out so you can see the clear break in the support trend line that's been anchored for quite some time ever since the lows have been put in, boom key break of it and the 50 sma, this, uh you know thursday and friday so two equal sized bodies let's zoom in on that a bit, two equal sized bodies stacking up forming a nice little double bottom here again which if you recall as we've just mentioned, in the spy analysis, double bottom is not the proper way to end any auction it should end on a bang so, likely i think the scenario is that the 250, area breaks and we continue lower in which case there's a large gap that remains unfilled from the gap up from earnings, keep in mind that's this area of the chart here so if you can go under our 247, 16 look for the gap to fill, uh lower, than our, 2, 38, whole dollar that should act as support intermediately.
But Our true gap fill is all the way down here to our, 234. 69.. So i just converted that to yellow for you guys but to the upside if we can break out above, our little double top it looks like we have double bottom and double top, up here at 259. Uh 28, we would have to battle back up through our support trend line so recapturing, that would mean getting back above 265. And then ultimately, a key resistance, up next let's clean up this chart a little bit this one's not really in play here, we'll remove you and obviously that, makes things much visually easier to see, 278. 97, or, 279. The whole dollar is ultimately the next target to the upside if, the bull case plays out. So nvidia's, trend line still remains intact, again just know it's anchored from the lows, of the ultimate sell-off back earlier on in the year and again here we just have predominantly. Sideways, action, really no. No conviction, from one side or another could be a bare flag if this does break here 50 sma support trend line horizontal, support a lot of support here if that breaks, i would expect more of a nasty flush underneath sort of the zone here, down into our 432. To 421. Support zone as noted by a previous breakout level and that previous, all-time high before we went uh ultimately higher than that underneath. And our shelf if you will is sort of here at 391.50. To the upside though if this doesn't, uh resolve, in downward, action let's map out a resistance, point that's going to be right around here, and i would also include this double top up here at uh. 531.93. So 523. 50, is the first area anything above is that next one and again that could put the short squeeze on, in which case we move, quite quickly to these upside targets. Microsoft, following more of the market look, and obviously we've had a break of our support trend line for quite some time now bear flag is starting to break to the downside, again whether or not that's psychologically, how things are going to play out, and the fear and all that you know that's one thing you'll have to gauge with the broad market but if microsoft, follows the broad market and the broad market goes higher, we have targets above, first here. Let's map that out at 20802. Anything above that is our 50 sma sort of right now at least, and our two 1165. Above that and you can see it's going to be, our 214. And then 216. Breakout area from in here, to the down and again that could be potentially the scenario based on our hammer candle that's printed right to the downside though if we continue to fail, we should watch out for friday's, low which is at, 196.28. Anything underneath, our next shelf from back here if you will, boom is going to be there at 193.89. Anything underneath, our. 72, could be in store. And amazon, which is not going to be our last but it is still the beast. We have a clear, breakaway, in range and a gap left behind, on our chart so we have this consolidation, that was happening here, now we've essentially moved much lower, gapped down and, see value holding lower so interesting to see that if we continue, to break down below our 2923. And look for a move back down here you can see that's a previous breakout level, that's at 27.81. Anything underneath, again a previous breakout level confirmed, as support by that hammer there is going to be at 26. 30., to the upside, we have the gap so anything over our 30 32. Could potentially fill the gap to the low of this candle. Which is going to be at 30, 74, 15, i'm probably just gonna adjust that down after the video ends, anything above though watch out for the 50 sma, as well as this resistance, point in here at 31.81. And that should cover us up and down, welcome to the speed round where we have 10 tickers so we're going to go over them quite quickly that way i keep the video length here slightly reasonable for you guys starting off on shll. This is another one of those electric, vehicle acquisition, companies. Uh that has made the news recently, and of course is on a massive tear and what i'm seeing right off the bat is a symmetrical, triangle that's formed something like this, after a nice bull move you know two of them here so the implication, here is that we want to see continuation, higher we would have to see a breakout over that level if we do get that breakout watch out for targets, above. First here at, 56. Three quarters and then the all-time high, if this fails to the downside though again just do the same thing with supports we have first support down here at 42, whole dollar, and then this looks like a key area that was ultimately the breakout area there at 39.8.
Moving Over to workhorse, now another electronic, vehicle maker surprise surprise looks like there's a very key support here we are on a nice run to the upside it looks like we broke out and cleared our previous all-time, high and from there it's been blue sky territory, so that's exactly what it's going to be anything over all-time high blue sky territories, whole and half dollars intraday levels that do form, to the downside it looks like we have first support at 28.17. Underneath that 25, the whole dollar, and then, i would imagine a retest, of the previous all-time high would act as support as well but right now there's no real case and why i would imagine that it would come back down that far it looks like we're on a nice, strong bullish uptrend, maybe some re-tests a bear flag that or a bull flag rather that forms some consolidation, would be a good potential, entry, for a move higher. Next up we have gld, which is the gold etf. From spy, so next up we'll have a support, here boom at 179. Quarter, anything, uh below that and it looks like next, support below is going to be here previous, breakout level, there we go that's at 170. 50. to the upside though we have a resistance, trend line that's clear as day forming a descending, triangle. Something that looks like this it looks like we're starting to take it out. A little bit it's kind of skeptical, i'm skeptical, with gold and the metals in general generally they have really. Choppy breakouts, and then once they get going they really get going as noted by this move that ultimately, happened here so watch out for the potential, over, you know 183. Now 185. It could potentially start getting going, to the upside in which case targets you're just going to do the same thing walk them up so 185. Is the first, target, boom i guess we'll just use these for now, 187. Is the next one here. Uh, terrible idea terrible idea, anyways. Again, just walk them up and then ultimately the all-time high, boom there we go to the downside we covered this area and then we'll just pick one more out in case there's a catastrophic, collapse. Boom will go down, to here which looks like a previous, area of breakout, as well confirmed, as support, on that touch, 160, 405.. Amd, of course microchips. And all that good stuff, looking at a potential, for a gap fill below right now so anything underneath our 74, could fill down to 71.64. And then underneath that there's yet another gap so watch out for all this poor structure below. Anything under 64, fills down to 6219. To the upside though if we get a bounce out of this area first key resistance, is going to be in here as noted previous support, now resistance, resistance, resistance in there that's 7962. Above that we have, here. And that's actually a really nice one at 83.37. Of course after that all-time high really emotional, selling in here double top that happened there 87, 36. Watch out for all those key levels to the upside sort of figuring out the 50 sma right now but again, right now based on the downtrend, 50 sma sort of breaking i would expect, at least a gap fill for here. Zm, absolutely. Fantastic. Move on earnings and it's looking like it's holding that value to the upside you can see the gap started to fill but right now buyers are taking it right back up so what we have for levels, are you know not as clear and defined, it would be better if we had more price history here but we don't so we'll go off what we have, looks like resistance, up here around 445.. I just call that the whole dollar, uh supports, below definitely going to be in here at 4 12 37. Anything underneath that we have a double bottom and sort of some other choppy areas that seem significant, at 387.50. Of course our lows in here. At 347.80. If that breaks look for the gap filled down to close the earnings gap at, 325.04.
Underneath That this is the previous breakout zone where it all sort of start stemmed from if you will at, 292.75. Anything above. Our previous, our current resistance here that we talked about 445. Look for the all-time high retest. At 478.. Checking in on roku looks pretty strong actually holding its up trending 50 sma it's not breaking down like the rest of the market we have a really strong support level in here as noted by all of these touches, really really strong so watch out for that as a key flush point if for some reason it does break back down and get into that 146.57. Doesn't look like it though for right now holding that 50 sma quite nicely. Uh resistance, up here you can see, 168.85. Touches in here touches as well, anything above it looks like this is a key level and then after that really just the all-time high up at 185.50. So supports, intermediate, before we get down to the flush point looks like here. We have a key level at 155.32. And if the flush does happen. That could take us back down to here it looks like at, 132.06. So draftkings, not a whole lot of price action history where we sit now so watch out for blue sky territories, of course over our all-time high currently at 55.70. Anything to the downside, key support. 5316. Looks like there's some chop that happen in here, at 49. 16, anything underneath. Just keep walking them down we have 43.88. That's quite a waste to fall, not necessarily saying it has to go all that far again there's no reason why it should it's in a nice strong uptrend it'd be nice to see some consolidation. Up here, some accumulation. And then another leg higher in which case again we just said blue sky territories. Costco, one of those staples. This one's actually interesting because we have earnings coming up so anything can potentially happen with this one i would caution you against any options plays, for earnings, right now it looks like we have a resistance, here that's now support. We didn't quite get all the way to it on this friday sell-off but kind of close enough definitely close enough to this bottoming. Uh support that's in there that's at 331.81. To the upside if this results in more buying we'll first have to clear that 50 sma, but if we can do that looks like next resistance, up is at 345. Whole dollar, above that we have this level here 349.50. And of course after that all-time high at. 363.67. To the downside, if this flushes. And we see a move back down below our 329.10. It looks like there's some support, in here, at 3, 24, 40., and then of course there's a gap in the chart here between 320. And, this double top, at, 317.86. So target is just phenomenal, it's a long-term stock that i definitely hold, it's been holding its gap up from earnings, here quite nicely just kind of like zoom just, a little bit of correction, boom holding that value up quite nicely, key resistance, is going to be here at 149.68. Call it 150, the psychological, number if we can break out higher than that looks like we have, a little point of contention, here at 150, 179. After that really it's the all-time high, and resistance, just prior to it you can see there's some tops before we ultimately get all the way up to that 156.. That's at 150, 480, to the downside though this is our key support you can see we're just consolidating, sideways at the moment so flush, underneath, our 147. 40 could put us back down to these lows, in which case if those break look for the gap hill all the way back down to 138.50. And last but not least we have mrna, one of the vaccine, players it looks like we're at current resistance, here 50 sma coinciding. At 70. Half anything above that and we could move potentially, let's pick out a level here, this looks good we have prior resistance, turn support support, support and then prior resistance, as well at 76.61. Above that this area is catching my attention, at. 83.98. So call it 85. 84.85. Something like that all-time high of course up here 95.21. To the downside, if this hammer and sort of mini bull flag if you will right we have a bull flag on the daily sort of forming like that, boom should result in a breakout upward but if it doesn't, key support, break will first be at 66, of the whole dollar anything underneath. Could potentially move us back down here there we go to 6243. And then our next key level is going to be a, sort of splitting the difference here between, 55, 28 and 55, the whole dollar so watch out for that so that's going to be it for this week's episode of the weekly watches if you enjoyed the video the psychology, explanations, and specifically, the speed round at the end you can be a part of that by joining the discord, chat that's linked down below in the description, but if you enjoyed the video as a whole leave it a thumbs up to let me know or a comment just you know expressing, that appreciation.
If You have any questions, also leave them down below or feel free to shoot me an email and with that i wish you a green trading. Week.