Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) - LIVE Trading Session
Hello traders. Hello. And welcome before. We get started just like to take a second to do, a sound test and also if you can see my, screen that would be great please, type in a question box just a yes we'll do a simple yes please if, you can hear, me okay. Very well. Okay. Thank you off table Thank. You Kenneth, thank you Jonathan. Christian. Thank you as well, okay, voice okay. Visual. Everything's, all right okay guys. Perfect. Thank you very much for. For. Confirming, now we're, gonna get started just give me one moment and I will be right with you okay we're, live on. Facebook. And YouTube as well and just give me a moment I will be starting, this session and we'll. Kick it off thank you. You. Hello. Traders and welcome to February's, non-farm, payrolls, live event life life, session here presented, by Richard, yours truly, serving, traders responsibly. With or bik's now. Today we have the NFP non-farm, payrolls, event. And we're, just gonna kick it off with the. Fundamentals. Let's say with the economic, calendar, and, what. We're going to do is we're going to take a look at the. Releases. And basically, let's say for instance we're, gonna stick. With stick. With this economic calendar for the moment, okay, now, the non-farm, payrolls, is is indeed d the, main attraction, for the day and. What. Would be expected let's say for instance the analysts are expecting a, decrease, in the jobs added, in, the government, sector. Okay, so. Basically. Not. To mention, that this, is this could be a bearish, sentiment. Let's say for instance for those of you who don't know what the NFP, is a non-farm payrolls, it's basically just like I said earlier, the, jobs added, in, the government. Sector in the United States now. The, obviously, the, one. Of the most important, things is also the average hourly earnings. Which. Is also expected, to be leaked to decrease, not. Not, only that but, you. Know things are kind of lining, up for a bearish sentiment, for the US dollar and the, unemployment, rate is expected to decrease so. This. Is kind of a bullish stance. Let's say for instance. Entenmann's. For for. Buyers let's, say but, by. The looks of these three. Expectations. Things. Are actually let's, say for instance these, things are. Looking. To words. Let's, say mixed data with a touch of bearishness. So. If. We go on to the actual charts. We'll actually see more. Okay. Now, before. We get started with, the analysis, and everything I'd like to emphasize the fact that. And. Everything that I'm about to say is not designed, to induce, or influence you in any way and my. Views are to be treated as simple market commentary this is not an investment advice, and. I would like to thank you very much for understanding. Now this video is being recorded this, webinar this live session is being recorded this, is, being streamed live on YouTube and Facebook however. I will be taking, questions. During this webinar, so I will, stick only with the ones inside the actual room, so, if you are watching, this on Facebook or, YouTube life, you might want to click, on the link in the description, right there and just, join the. Live session, in progress, thank, you now. Besides. That as. I said if you do have questions I, do have everything. Right here so, just, hit, me with your question guys and. Well. I, will do my best to answer in. The best possible way now, today, is obviously, Friday. The 1st of February it, is, free. Free. 7, p.m. Eastern, European, Standard Time so this would translate into 107. P.m., GMT, the. Release and the dates are basically. Will be will. Take place the release will take place at. 3:30. P.m. Eastern. European. Standard. Time so we. Have a few minutes to just take, a look at the charts, in the meantime if you do have any questions or, would like to, like. Me to take a look at a specific asset. Or something like that. Just, write in the question box right there and I will do my best to find time for it for ok you, know me I always take time for you guys now, I'm. Gonna kick it off with the dollar index and we're, also going to take a look at the metals. Basically, gold, and silver, xeu, USD, x, IG USD then we're gonna take a quick look at crude oil WTI, West. Texas Intermediate and, the, forex majors, Bureau dollar pound, dollar the.
Yen, Yesterday. The Swiss franc, USD, Swiss and then let's say for instance maybe. Usd/cad, all. The dollar because, it's it's. Looking very let's. Say for very promising, let's say for instance, NZD. The kiwi, what. Else euro GBP, a little. Bit but, also, the indices, because, indices, are, let's. Say for instance are, kind of looking, as, if, they, could be prepared, for something bigger and today's. An FP is. Going. To be important. It is crucial and I'm going to explain to you guys when, I'm gonna, jump. On these. Larger. Timeframe. Charts. On the daily chart so I want to Dow Jones on a daily timeframe, right here, and what I'm noticing is, the possibility. For. Let's. Say for another, squeeze. Another. Bearish, bearish. Outcome, right, so we. All know what happened first of all he right here on in. February 2018. And then in October, 2018. Followed, by December's, fall. Okay, so, the way I'm labeling, that, is in an ABC structure. But this could actually be, one. Structure, out of a let's. Say for instance one, piece from. Larger. Degree, structures. So the. Way I'm labeling, it right here, is the entire piece, as the W, in, a double, three and. This rise could, be an ex wave for. Basically. Providing, a bridge for another, ABC. So. For. That to or to actually take place. Will. Need this NFP, to. Confirm. Possibly, confirm that okay, so, what, I'm saying is like this now we, we, have let's check the with with the fibs and measurements, and basically, this this looks to me like a proper resistance, and if broken if, actually. Broken on the upside, and this could gain support, right here and provide us last, fifth, leg on, the upside, obviously, to. Basically. Before another. Bigger. Contraction. Would occur and, something. Very. Very. Something. Not good okay, that will expand. On this on, on, the next on the upcoming, macro. Perspective webinar. Which I would am planning to delivery. Guys delivered, it's, for you guys now let. Me just continue here, what we have here on the Fibonacci retracements. That entire move, we have the 61 point 8 you can see the price action is hanging around right there and is having difficulties, not to mention bearish. Bearish. Divergence could. Be around. The corner right here okay, and. Also. From, these Fibonacci, retracements, we have the 78 0.6. Right, not, to mention that we have of course a, vibration, zone right here as you guys can actually see from my. Labels. Right there and messages. But, price. Action basically. Vibrated. Right there and this is a point of interest the vibrations, on as I said so this could be a. Resistance, and today. We'll see if indeed that, would, come true, okay, now this is a daily timeframe I'm going to. Zoom. In on each, and every chart. Like this ok now questions, I'm waiting. For your questions guys just, keep them coming if you have, some, or if you like me to take a look at something specific. Now. The dollar index on the daily chart on the daily timeframe is, showing me. It. Is at a crucial point okay, because, this, corrective. Pattern. Because, it's it's. It's, overlapping all over the place so it is a complex, corrective. Structure, a double three I'm I'm labeling it as, such now the. Point, is that it can actually be either, a running, or expanding. Flat in a, running flat this could gain support, and a lower trend. Line of the ascending, channel which I'm actually drawing right here it's this one, okay.
So. In. A running flat this could actually, deliver. One, last bullish. Lag for this sea wave impulsive. Structure of course okay. And, for. For. An expanding, flat then this sealer, could actually turn, into words, I mean, break breached. The lower, trendline, and deliver. Something. Like. A sell-off, for, the US dollar and as I said today's, NFP is crucial. It is important. Not to mention that. If. I do take a look at the, gold, chart, on the daily timeframe, all. These kind of channeling, on the upside, and this is typically for. Foreign. Impulse, and there. Is a reason impulse has a 5 wave sequence right here as you guys can actually see and, obviously. You guys know my my views right here I was able to successfully. Track, this rise. Right, there, ok. Wait, with. The free of freeze, now, after. That it contracted, and. Basically. In the quarter. One reports. On. 2019. Which. Was actually made. For you guys that orbits, now. In, that I actually explained, the possibility, for this correction. To end soon, and continue, with the rise, which actually, occurred, as well, so I've been able to successfully, track, this with this view this view this view and then this view now the. Point is that gold, has. Broken in July, 2018. That weekly, trendline, and that weekly trendline, represents, basically. 2016. December, low and. 2015. December. Low, so, it is quite quite. Significant. Now. As you can see it's coming for a retest it actually went for a retest with this fourth wave right there sideways, move, and then, the Bulls gained control once, more. But, it, is approaching. Some Fibonacci. Levels. It is actually, right there so, from the actual fall, which, actually started, in. January. 2018. So, we had a basic, almost a full let's, say six months of bearishness, for, gold now. It, is exactly at the seventy, eight point six all, previously vibration, zone right, there, by. Vibration, zone of, off, top I mean where. Price action. Well, basically a zone were both bulls and bears fight. For the title yeah, whoever gains control, in a sense that it is, it. Is a place where the orders, are okay. And this can be tracked, with the, Fibonacci sequence and, also, combined with the wave. Structures. Okay, I hope that answered, your question. Now. If. I may continue the, 78 point six is right there not to mention that so seventy eight point six of the entire fall retracement. Seventy point six minutes retracements. And then from a to b we. Have the two hundred sixty one point eight okay. I'm glad you understand thank you so, we have the twenty sixty one point eight of a and B intermediate. So. Basically, this, should be. Should. Be topping. Soon I'm, not saying now but I would. Expect a bearish divergence right, here which we kind of have but. I would be, more glad, I mean happier, to see something. Like this okay, so let's, we will we will jump on the two hour time frame and get really. Really, busy with that now. We. Have we. Don't have enough enough, time we have only fourteen, minutes, left until the actual, release, so I'm gonna do my best to, basically. Go. Through these charts, as quickly as possible, but you know me I like to give you guys a lot of details. And gets really into. It so.
Continuing. Right there what, I'm just saying is as. A summary. Gold. Is actually at a resistance and a. Construction. Could actually occur. Right, so. We'll see we'll, see that when, when. More details, gather in a sense that it would need to start with a five wave sequence on the downside, okay all those smaller timeframes. So. Jumping. On the, silver, next. Okay, similar, to gold but the structure is slightly different. Though however this is an, impulse, right. There and I was able to track. That as. Well with with, the rise, right, there in the silver okay, so. What's. Next now next, what, I'm labeling how, how I'm labeling silver, is in a one two and then one two three or phrase right here in this my nude green free, than the construction, four. And this, is the fifth. Leg let's say my. Nude five, green, that's. Completing, possibly, completing, minor. Three green, okay, so I would actually expect, a bearish divergence right. Here and this, could be lets. Say promising. Now silver, is also approaching, the, vibration, zone which I previously explained, before, right, there okay before, the sell-off, and. It. Is actually synchronizing. This sixty one point eight five notch retracement, of the entire fall is actually synchronized with the two hundred sixty one point eight of a and B funeral. Extensions, so, as, you can as you guys can actually see the metals are kind of. Approaching. Resistance. Point. A point of resistance okay, so, hence the reason why I have this boxes. Right here which you guys actually know, now. Crude oil reversed, from. From. The downside, and I believe it found its, bottom. Temporarily, because. This rise. Actually, looks like a leading. Diagonal, right. Regardless, if it's an A or a one, we will zoom in on the four-hour chart later on and get more details. On that but what, I'm seeing right here on, the crude oil is a. Potential. Contraction. Even if it goes a little bit higher right there it's, okay it's supposed to do that as, as. A throw off right, and. So far out now wave. Two should be here if this would be a one or if, this, is indeed, an A and then this is a bead and a larger, contraction. Would actually occur right here before, another rise, okay, however, I do, believe that it has indeed. Started a, complete free wave sequence, which, could look like this, okay. At least if it's if it's corrective. Now. You're a dollar, you're a dollar is. Is. Exactly. Where it's supposed to impress. Because. A move on the upside, could. Be very good for the eurodollar however, if it, doesn't do that then I believe. I will start, considering, giving. Up my, I, mean giving up on the euro because if, it's, not gonna jump now, it's. It will be very hard for your dollar to. If. We, will be very hard for me to continue. My bullish, stance on the europe. Yes. NFB, is in ten minutes thank you very much for reminding me, okay. All right all right so. We'll, just continue now, for. The euro dollar. For. The euro dollar right here the way I'm labeling it is the fall in a primary, a red. And then. A contraction. Point terminating. Finalizing, with the, triangle. So I'm labeling this entire structure, as a, possible. Expanding, or running flat as well just like the dollar, index. However. For. That to occur this. Sea leg really, needs to go on the upside, if it, doesn't go then, this. Thing can actually bump its head and the next the, next zone could, be the French election scalp as it needs to be filled. Okay so, you, guys can actually see what I mean by that now. On. The other hand. Okay. Only on the other hand right there. Euro, if, it, does if. It manages to rise right here okay what I would expect is, a, corrective. Structure right here and then gain support. On it and I would be very happy to see a zig zag in the coming, let's. Say next week's trading. Sessions, so. The. The, bias for now still, remains let's say for instance my personal opinion slightly, bullish however. If a very very very good and, if B result is seen in nine. Minutes. Then Europe could be in trouble, okay. And obviously. I will reassess, if that occurs, now. The pound, dollar on the daily timeframe. It, looks to me like it could want, to gain support on these, descending.
Channel For the last one. Last piece, a squeeze. Right here which can be very promising as well because you guys can actually see the sixty one point eight where it's located, and, a 50% right, there before the actual breach. Of the, previous, rising. Channel. So this. Could be as well. Arising let's, say for instance and. Expanding. Flat right, because the. B wave obviously, went by. The way this is a triple, three right here so W X Y X Z, very, complicated, structure by the way, so. This can be an expanding, flat because the P wave actually, moved higher, than the start sorry lower than the start of a and. The. C wave if, it doesn't exceed the, end. Of a it, could be a running flat which means that pound/dollar should. Go down, however if it manages to rise. And it will be an expanding, flat most likely, and. Things. Will let's, say for medium, term would be slightly bullish, for, D for the, pounds, so this. Kind of coincides, as you if I go back on the dollar index you like you guys will actually see if the dollar manages, to breach then. The expanding, flats would be a. Possibility. For, the, pound dollar and the euro dollar and this. Could also provide. More bullishness for, metals. And WTI, now. Moving on to the usd/cad, and, you guys know my views right here and i've been active or even, in the orbits videos the market insights by the way there's a playlist on, the orbits blog I do this videos every day in which I'm providing, you guys with. Daily. Insights, on, Forex. Metals. Energy. And indices, alright, so you might want to check the playlist out if, you do want to support me please support me with the thumbs up and I will be very. I. Would, appreciate it. Now, if. You do want to download the. Q1. Reports, then it's on the orbits page, just, type orbitz.com. And just download it get your free copy right, here because, everything, that I'm saying right here on these daily. Charts. Is. Actually explained in detail, right there full technical analysis, okay so. We have six minutes left I'm just gonna continue. With the Dax, on the daily timeframe and, I'm, seeing a possibility, for. This structure. Right here in a running, flat possibly. Possibly. Sending. The Dax towards, more weakness, ahead, and the reason why I am, actually saying that is because. As. I previously mentioned on the Dow Jones right. As, a previously, mentioned the Dow Jones could actually find, resistance right, here so you guys can actually see that things are kind of lining up for the, markets, it is a crucial point, there is a juncture, it is a point. Where price. Action would need to make a decision, the market, will need to make a decision, so this NFP I cannot, even emphasize, how important, it is okay, so, the. Reason why I'm saying that is because the. VIX location. The volatility, index, in which I believe that, it. Could be. This. This could be I, mean. If. The VIX manages to spike again okay, now don't get me wrong I was able to track this big, spike, previously. With. These insights, right, I mean, right, right when it stopped right. There and there and then both right and then. Right. Right, here as well tracking, the rise right, here as well tracking the rise and the piece, de resistance right. Right about there in December. On December 3rd when they actually spiked, and Dow Jones attacked. I mean it crashed a little bit right, and now as dark as well and all and all these so, let me just let's, say we have four minutes left okay guys, so. Just quickly, quickly, running through the indices. On the smaller timeframes on Dax I would actually be expecting, that.
Structure. To pass, simply and soon, okay, after, a bullish move however, you can it can actually drop like that I'm seeing, a possible ending, diagonal, on. The US, 30 right. There so this this thing could actually. Start. Something, bigger a sell-off, maybe. SNP. The same ending, diagonal. Contracting. Diagonal. Obviously, however Nasdaq. Looks. To me like it's could be forming a very very. Rare. Structure, and expanding. Ending, diagonal, right here, so. This, could actually mean business, because, on. The. If. The VIX actually spikes then, what. We've seen on. In in, October, 2018, and December, 2018, it could be just the tip of the iceberg, for what's to come if this, is correct. Now. We'll. Jump on the economic, calendar. Right there we have three more minutes okay, now, brief. Briefly, going into, the metals. Let's. Let me just continue with. The. Dxi, dollar, index on the two hour time frame this time so we're squeezing it in now, this could actually be a second, wave right here and as. You guys can see the. Sentiment, I mean, the bearish sentiment. Is kicking. In right here right live so, people. Are basically, starting to think that the news would actually be negative. For. The US dollar however, we're. Going to wait, and according to that we'll. Have. More details now, as I said the, way I'm labeling. The. Way I'm labeling the. DXi. The dollar index is in an a B, right here in a triple free, similar, to a triangular, pattern but there is a triple, free W XY purple. Mini met and then, five wave sequence so basically we have this structure right here in da then. We have a free wave move right. Which could actually be either an X or an A for this structure okay, I'm labeling, it as a running. Flat, in a B, C right there. Thus completing, minor B, possibly. Okay so a B, and I. Am currently labeling. What, it appears to be or what, it could be a bearish, impulse, in, wave, C, red. Thus completing. A larger, degree pattern. Intermediate, Y and. W XY intermediate. Purple. Would actually. Complete. Turquoise big primary, degree, so. The. Way I'm labeling this is in a 1 2 and then the possible, extension, 1 2 3. Okay. Now, for. That to happen, obviously. A lower something. Lower than the previous points, would, something. Lower than 95, point 16 could pave, the way for more downside now. As. As. An invalidation, point, if I would just draw the Fibonacci. Retracements. Right just. Get rid of 30 points you just keep 61 point 8 and 50%.
Now. I move higher than the than. The 61, point 8, what. Kind, of lose, I would kind of lose confidence, in, the, bearish. Side or slightly. Paying, attention. Towards, it because if this would be let's. Say 1/2. Second. Wave would most. Probably retrace, around. 61, point 8 or something higher, than that in an impulsive manner could, actually. Mean, business. So, let's. Just see how. The. How. The results, would actually look like they. Will be released right now, and according. To these results we'll, have more details and I will continue the analysis, going on the two hour time frames and give you guys exactly. What you need, so we have an excellent, okay. We have a. Big. Increase, in the unemployment rate. Okay, but, extraordinary. Data, for. D. For. The non-farm payroll so more jobs were actually, added to exceeded the forecast, by. 136,000. Average. Hourly earnings. Exceed, the forecast by 0.1 but as you can see the pre 0.4. So a slight, increase, but still. Not, so, wonderful. Now, let's just see how this reacts, how the dollar actually, reacted. Okay, as. You can see that market is. Digesting. What's happening, because it's a shock right the. Forecast, was for a. Decrease. And. The. NFP results. The jobs added, were pretty, positive, okay, so, in this, scenario we'll. Have to take a look at the charts and see what, they could mean. Because. This. Structure. Can actually. Prolong. Itself. Okay. So I'm, not I'm, not really gonna, jump, the gun right here because it could extend, its. Its complexity. A little bit in the next trading, trading. Days next. Week most, probably these, results, will, will. Be digested properly. So. Enough, with the Dollar Index as you guys can see the market is not really moving yet okay. And. Let's. Just see how. Gold will actually react and I'm gonna go on on. Each and every chart, life right here for you guys to actually see so gold, is kind of as I said at the resistance, point however. For, a proper bearish divergence it. Could squeeze, one, more to, tag the, sixty. One point, eight not. Saying that it's gonna do that right now I'm saying that it. Could. Basically. Hang around this, zone a while before, it makes a crucial decision, so, I. Am, seeing a possible, bearish leg and a big one possibly, coming for gold, however I'm just trying doing, my best to track that with more and more details. Silver. Is, kind. Of retracing, right here and we'll see basically. By. The time we'll spend here we'll see will, most probably see, a move if not then, I will. Do my best to prepare you guys for next trading, week and with. The market, insights. Videos of daily videos right there I will, keep, feeding you guys with, my views, as I update, my charts. And as the market actually unfolds. Its swings. Now. Crude. Oil on the, four-hour time, frame, not. Sure if this is the end of this, first, leg right here okay, so, in. A sense that, the. Same thing 61 point eight which actually, mean more. Downside. In, my personal opinion so sixty one point eight let's say for instance fifty, two point seventy two right there something, lower than that because this was supposed to be a 1 2 and then a 3, 4. 5 right, here okay possibly an ending diagonal in the fifth leg I know crude oil loves it loves. That ending, diagonal, in the fifth wave, okay, so I'm not I'm. Still, let's. Say for instance holding, on and because. From. The free and and for we, should have the sixty, one point eight. Extension. For, the fifth, leg alright so just I'm going, to wait, a little bit before I make my decisions. Now, euro on. The two hour time frame as you can actually see I'm still giving euro, the benefit, of the doubt and I'm. Labeling it in one, two so basically let's say for instance leading, diagonal in my, Newt one, green, then, zigzag. In my. New to green and then. Only for FOMC. Gold. Sorry. Eur/usd, rallied. And right. After that made a retracement, and this is tradesmen could be actually, over I know it's quite you, know it's tight right here, so. This. Could. Be let's, say for instance slightly. Invalidated. By. A return, in this, previous, vibration. Zone and previous, supports. Now, a breach, of these, levels, could. Mean business, and as I said, the. Euro could, be in in, trouble, okay. Now. They're still hope okay. Because. Even. Though. The. The data was. Positive. The. Unemployment rate increased. Drastically, okay. So this is kind of let's say for instance this could be let's say if let's. See if this, gives. Us some some. Data right, here okay so previously, we had let's, say for instance. 3.7. Percent in. October, then. November. 3.7. The same remained, flat and you can actually see that it, is, increasing. So this could be alarming. For. The job. Sector. Okay I would, actually consider this, more important, than, the, non-farm, payrolls, but we'll, see how, market.
Participants. And traders will actually treat, this these. Results. Okay, now pound. Dollar pound. Dollar I'm actually. I'm. Actually tracking, this possible, ending. Diagonal, in this C, leg okay, so. In a wave one and two ABCs, in, ending. Diagonals, okay so, a B running flat right here and then the ending diagonal, in the sea so, one then, two sharp correction, and then. A B. C, in slightly, an. Impulse alright now this. Fourth wave it's normal, for it to be complex, a double three so W XY we have a structure, and they, W, we, have the X and then a most, probably a B and then the C so this should actually conclude. Quite. Soon, and. We'll. See if it gains manages, to gain support on the lower trend. Line right, about there, and possibly. Deliver the last fifth leg on the upside. So. As. You guys can actually see the. The. Downside, for the US dollar is still, really. Possible even, though the dates are was let's, say the jobs jobs, data the, number of jobs added that. Was amazing, right it exceeded the forecast with 160, cake, even. So let's, just continue. USD. N on the, for our time. Frame the. Way I'm labeling, this after, crash okay, after the actual, crash. Right there and you guys you. Guys can actually I mean, you guys know, what. I was what I was about to, witness. On, the USB yen. For. The downside right, you. Know now. The way the read the way I have managed, to gain. More confidence on, that is because of this structure which actually. Appeared. As a slightly. Fractal. By nature fractal. Structure, and what I mean by that is I'm just gonna take this structure, and clone. It and. Just. Paste it here and you guys can actually see it's amazing right I mean. It's. Almost the same not supposed to be the same but it is supposed, to be a fractal. Okay which means for. Those of you who don't know a fractal. A pattern, is basically represents, the self repetitive, pattern. Patterns. Reappearing. Under. The same order, okay, so, when, I've seen this and I actually mentioned, this in previous videos, and all that I actually posted these articles, everything. Even, the quarterly reports, and so, on okay, so, basically. These. Structure. Represents, destruction, after the fall we. Had a rise. Okay, so, how I'm labeling this and how, what what I'm actually asking myself is, the final question. Is. The. Dollar is, the dollar yen sell-off, over or is. It, is, it is this basically a part of contraction, before more, downside, well. It doesn't have to be more. A downside, of honestly. Because this pattern could be concluded in, a sense this, was the a wave this was the B wave and then. This could actually start, a rise. And this kind of coincides, would be. Gold's. Possible. Sell-off which I would actually expect, very. Soon now the. Pound, is sorry the US dollar usd/cad, on. The, daily timeframe. I've. Been, I've been mentioning, this and screaming this out for for a couple of, months.
Now With. With the dollar cad. Possibly. Starting a bearish impulse, and the way I'm seeing this is no possible one two and then the third leg. Okay, so, let's just jump, on the go-go back on to our time, frames just gonna take a look here if I have any. Questions. Okay. Continue. Please all right very well. Here's. A nice question from Emily will. Aud/usd, go, uptrend, well I'm, not, I'm, not going. To tell you if, it will I'm going, to tell you if it could so. Let's, say for instance aud/usd, as, you can actually see, from the. Way I'm labeling, it is in a possible extension of bullish extension, so yes. It could deliver, a bullish. Impulse, and I will not be surprised. By that taking a look at the Kiwi. As well, does, look like it's in a hurry, and, it, is channeling, and this is typically for a waiver typical, for away free. Extension. So. I would not be surprised, if this for, actually, ended here, and this thing really really goes on the upside okay. Same. Thing for. The Aussie right. Just wave to to. Have. Finalized. Here, and the. Third leg to actually, go, and if. That is true then. With. The Fibonacci extensions, which can actually. See. How much the third, leg could actually go with 160, 1.8, 150, 160 1.8, Fibonacci, extensions, of one and two. Okay, so I hope that answers your question. Usd/cad. Will be bearish for how long sir, well. Off table. I was. Just on the usd/cad. There. Is a possibility, for a. For. A slightly I, mean. Prolonged. Period. Because. The usd/cad. Leg. That I would actually expect would be something, much larger something, like a 1500. Pips the downside I know how that sounds but I've, been able to track, that before, twice, so, I. Would. Actually expect, one. One. More in, my personal opinion for. The usd/cad which I just explained, as a bearish, impulse, with an extension but, this on the only under the condition if. The crude oil would manage, to deliver that move on the upside, okay. So that could be quite, quite. Important, and quite significant, for the markets. Okay. You're. Welcome Emily okay, any, any more questions, guys just keep them coming please okay I will take two take take. A look from time to time. By. The way, for. Those of you who are inside, the actual, room I am, doing obviously as you guys can actually see wave, analysis, Elliott wave analysis. Different. Than what you actually see out there you know there, are no labels on others so only charting.
Basically. Patterns recognition, or something like that but, if you do wish to learn. These, techniques, then, there's a handout right there you. Can actually download them. If, you're inside the actual room inside the webinar, they're free just download them there are four parts of educational. Material. Put. Together for, you guys so, especially. Obviously, for Orbitz, traders, yeah. So, never, just just go go ahead and take them if. I would remind you of the q1 report, quarterly report, of 2019. It is available, on the Orbitz. Blog. And page okay, so just visit the page and get it get your free copy okay, you do have to register though but it's free for download, okay. Now. Questions. More questions not. Yet, all right shall. We continue, now, if you, do want would. Like me to take. A look at something, specific, like like, an asset that you actually have, that. You're keeping an eye on then. Why. Not just write a quick message here, in the questions, box and we'll. Go on it and see basically, what. What would actually occur. Now moving. On to, let's. Say continuing, with, the grx would be dax okay. The. Way. Labeling. This isn't a possible, rise right, here, but this is not due to the euros fall. This, could mean. Something. Like, indices. Manner in a sense that Dow Jones and others S&P and Nasdaq could actually rise. Before. It. Could get. You. Know get, hit by the hammer or something like that so we'll actually see if that if that will actually happen now. For now what. I'm seeing on a smaller time frame is the possible zigzag, here on Dax and this could actually form, that last, fifth, leg on the upside right so we'll keep, we'll. Keep basically, keep track of this now, obviously something, lower than this trendline can mean a breakout, right a bearish, let's, say a breach and it. Could mean business, things. Would not look so good for Dax again I mean I was, able to subtract. That you. Know the dax multiple. Multiple, times. Let, me just give you guys an example right. Here on the gr X okay. Let's. Say, right. Here. Yeah. I was, able to this, is way back may.
2017. Right, I was able to say that this could actually drop and then rise and then drop from their triple. Patrick. Right and then. When. I hit when, it's approach when was approaching the bottom I was saying that were last fifth leg could actually be delivered, then it did followed, by these levels, on the downside and then. Right. About let's say for instance then I was able to track this in and. In. My room with my with my traders and right. There I already hit the bottom it, actually rose. And I said it was the possibility for this to rise, and then continue, they fall. Okay. And right after that when, it actually started, the. Fall. With. The previously, let's say for instance I. Believe. This was the, quarter. Free report, done, for all box traders, right there in. Which I was mentioning the possibility for the markets to start a to. Enter a bearish, territory. Okay, and right after that tract, again, and again and again with, these with. These views. Okay, and as, we can actually see. As. We can actually see the darks is continuing, and continuing to, slide, in. This. Bearish. Channel, okay, and right, there it. Is you, know I've been able to as you guys can actually see have been able to successfully, tracked, these these, drops so, I wouldn't, be surprised. I, wouldn't. Be surprised, right here okay I know it hits less difference I hit the support right here but the way it's reversing. On the upside, a contraction. Would, be needed, at least like, that before a breakout in a wave free. Right. So. Regardless. Of the outlook, it could still deliver, something. On the downside, just enough to. Let's. Say for instance. Just. A knife or, a let's say slight slight, profit, and right there at breakeven after, and just wait. And see game you know and see. What happens, yeah. Now, let's just continue there, now, for the for. The Dow Jones the. Way I'm labeling Dow Jones is in an a B, right here leading. Diagonally one correction. To, lean, diagonally, one then to free triangle. In. Four and the fifth leg so fourth wave retracement, and now, what I'm seeing the possible, ending, diagonals.
This, Is M. This, is, kind of approaching, that seventy eight point six Fibonacci. That data, actually told you guys about also. From, A to B one hundred sixty one point eight so, I want to be surprised if it makes a throw off right here and then, gets the hammer I wouldn't, be surprised, to actually. See, that now, SMP, 500. SNP, funder has a, similar. Structure however. This this for has been prolonged could be a triangle right here, okay, but, this definitely, is a nice. Rise so I wouldn't be surprised if I would see one more on, the upside right it is exactly, at the 78.6%, of. That drop okay. So it is kind of facing, resistance. How long however it's, it's, not gonna be. It. Is it would be normal for a flow, of to actually occur, okay, so, will basically see. More when, it actually if it actually happens, now the, bias is for. Possible. Bearish divergence to. Occur right there at the end of the, diagonal. On the off of the ending diagonal, in that select, blue minut, see and, this, could be promising. For, D downside, if that, setup actually, occurs, now Nasdaq. Nasdaq. As I said very rare very. Rare, structure. Right here in an expanding. Ending diagonal, which is, one of the few I've ever seen to be honest with you live so. This. Could actually fall one more okay. Make. The flow off and, just, you know bump its head like it did over, and over and over again and as you guys can actually see I was. Able, to track. That again. Okay. So well. Basically. What I'm saying is that the. Market is located at a crucial point a juncture, okay so, then the, outlook, could, be quite, quite, significant, as you guys can actually see, kind. Of like from from what or from what I went, the. Market. Could. Actually, deliver. Could. Could actually be. Located. How. Should I put this everything. Is pointing down technically. Speaking in a sense that the dollar could. Be. Starting. A bearish impulse, and then a significant. Rise, which. Could only translate, into, if. I would let's say correlate, with the indices, if the industries would however, deliver. That, massive. Sell-off, occur, which I was talking about earlier it, is a possibility, not saying that happen, you guys are big. You, know grown men. And ladies so. You guys can actually make their own decisions, I'm just here to share my personal opinion, but. Should. This actually, happen, this, could translate into, a. Period where. People. After, the, bearish. I mean bearish leg was finalized, for the US dollar, right, I, mean, this one to, actually, start okay. After. That. Then. The dollar should gain, support. For a see leg and what. I've noticed is, that when, the VIX spikes, the dollar gains. Support. This. Is due to the fact that people actually. Treat the dollar in these volatile, times in this fear, periods. As. The. Most likely safe haven asset everything else is just. You. Know people. Are waiting even, for when it comes to gold they're. Resilient, when it comes to buying and, investing in gold, anymore, right so. They treat the dollar as them as the safest, asset. In. That very moment in that fear, period.
In That uncertainty, period. Volatiles, so. If. The, VIX just. To keep it simple as a summary if the VIX actually manages, to spike, right there then, this could. Translate. Into a powerful dollar and softer, stocks, right, and indices, and, that's. Exactly what could. Actually happen on, with. The Dow Jones okay. So going back on the Dow Jones right, here on the two hour time frame and I will actually share with you guys a. Larger. Picture. Okay. A larger. Picture with the Dow Jones and I'm just gonna leave you guys with, that okay. I will be taking the final questions, right right then after I finish this point and, I. Will, leave you guys towards, the weekend so we can recharge our batteries and. Analyze. These charts while the market is still, I know you guys like that so. What. I'm saying is that for. The Dow Jones to, return. Towards. The bullish. It, would need to present. Right, I mean, very, very soon it, will need to present a bullish. Rally. I mean something. Big, in. Order for this to break, out and possibly. Gain support, on these, previous. Points. Where it gains resistance. Before it dropped dropped, okay, so, in. Other words what I'm saying is that. It. Should gain support. Right here for more confidence. Towards, the upside, and the bull market to deliver that last fifth, leg, what. Do I mean by that, well. Let's just jump on the monthly. Chart, on the Dow Jones so I can actually show you what I mean, by that and it's pretty it's. Pretty simple. These, this is labeled, in a supercycle degree, with, one then, two retracement, and then the extension cycle, wave one black then, two black free, extension, with a free of freeze extended, right here also channeling, so no doubt about it this, is the free. In my personal, opinion then, the fourth wave right. There and then, the fifth leg one two three. Four and the fifth basically. The extension, the fifth of fifth, for. This free, primary. Blue, then right after that the triangle, pattern, and the last squeeze, the last rise noticed, resembles, wave one and wave file, they do resemble each other so, I'm labeling this as a possible, top of, supercycle. Wave free, now. The question, is is this four here, or. Does. It have more to go because. If it does have more to go and then this was just that W this. Was just that X and then, Y, could be actually, here, and there were some, Fibonacci retracements. I mean default. Measurements, for a way for will be the. 38.2%. And, let me just give you guys some. Prices. Right here twenty four twenty thousand, three hundred and twenty six is. The, actual level. For that view, if. It, does, that right, in order for the market not to do that and I just said the Dow Jones. Actually. Have a zigzag. Right here most probably, so, it can actually pave the way for more. Upside. Okay. So that this X would be invalidated. Now. If. We take a look at, the, smaller, timeframes on that, Dow, Jones. This. Could actually pass as a leading. Diagonal, in one right, however, that doesn't mean that it's not supposed to retrace, here in a wave too so. This. Ending, diagonal, could work both ways in other words regardless, of what the real picture, is so, some, of my trade is what they do is just they, put. In. The relation points at breakeven. And they, just you, know ride the wave now. Let. Me just check some some, questions right there okay. Hi. Helder are. You making any, analysis. On the Asian markets, on sang or Shanghai. Yes, I am, however. I'm keeping that from my private, portfolio, and. Yeah. You're. Not you're not in the room anymore I would actually go on that on that chart right now but, send, me an email or, contact. Me and we'll. Sort, it out I will I will do my best to share with you a good. Wave count so. You can actually, you. Know expand. Your trading census or perfect your own strategy.
Something Like that so, before, we go before, we end this, session. Let's. Just see. How the markets, digested. These this. Event as you guys can actually see no. Major spike, or something like that it's, still, it's. Still waiting, the market and what. I think is the, more, I think the market is doing is I believe that it's, waiting for possibly. One more hour, for. The is M manufacturing. PMI. For. Four, days to actually take place now the forecast for that is also. A decrease from. Fifty. Four point one towards the fifty three point, three so. If. This is indeed bearish, then. It could prolong that, there is sentiment, for the dollar, now. Let's. Just continue with the others, okay, and the. Gold on the two hour time frame pretty much is still. Being. Sustained, by the. Bulls. No major. Downside. And no major reaction, on the downside, on this wonderful, news for the, NFP, right. So. Silver. Kind. Of the same no. Major. They. Say no. Major change. Right this could be actually a wave to retracement, and a sharpie treatment, and this can actually go on the upside we'll see right. Crude. Oil is as, I, said supposed. To, you. Know we could wait some more for this okay. On. The crude oil because as I said it could deliver that ending. Diagonal, okay, something. Like this. Squeezing. Its way like, that before. Bigger picture. Would, actually occur okay, so euro, dollar as. You guys can actually see the. Euro dollar, the. Euro doesn't really mind. The. Good. News for. For jobs added, in the United States right kind, of it's. Kind of looking for that possibility, of, a, rally, so. If that, occurs. Then. Euro. Could, be quite. Quite. Powerful, right the same same, as let's, say same thing goes for the, pound. Okay. Use. The yen. Yeah. Maybe it's going to maybe, it, could actually want, to, channel. Right. About there, okay, actually. This channel can be could. Be placed right there I'm gonna work on that that, channel no worries okay but, it could it, could actually. Continue. On the downside. That's what I'm saying so this being a big way they can take multiple, forms. It K it actually has, maybe. About, twenty, three different ways of developing, a corrective. Pattern, so. It's. It could be quite hard to track it right however, the, way I'm seeing, write this it, could be an, a B, C, so basically, this completes our. Pattern. And this could be a next wave for. The next, move, similar, to what we see on the USD. Swiss. Ok, and the USD Swiss. Kind. Of looks like it could be looking. For a bearish. Move. And. This, that happens, then I would. Be quite quite. Happy to see because this could actually pave the way for more views. For the future so, I can actually continue giving, you guys those those, views from my from, my side. Hi, where can I find a copy what. Do you mean by that Maria, please copy. Off of what, of the q1 of the first, quarter, report from. Written. By myself or, please. Please. Confirm. Moving. On all the dollar, same. Thing Marcus. Did not really move as you guys can actually see, it. Can actually continue. On the upside, nzv the same.
You're. A pal okay Euro Pound is quite quite. Nice because I've been mentioning this to you guys, a. While. Back for, this euro pound to possibly. Start that bearish, impulse. And it did now, the way I'm seeing the current, move. Is in a possible, wave for. Retracement. And. I. Wouldn't, I wouldn't. Be surprised if this for as indeed, finalized. If indeed, the pound dollar was is supposed to rise, in a rally even though the euro dollar would rise like that, still. The eur/gbp could. Continue. On the downside. So for me to, to. See more. Details, I would. Yeah. I would, actually like a something. Lower than the sixty one point eight of this entire. Okay. But. There are bearish. Signs, it is actually located exactly at the 38.2. Default. Retracement. For a wave four okay. So until, until. Further notice, I'm just gonna do this okay. And, leave, my view like that and we'll, actually see where. This could actually go because. This pattern, could, be complete, a leading diagonal in a, and. B and then the C, right so either either like that or it can be a b c so, a then, B right here in a running, flat and then the C, leg so. Will will basically see more more, details, but regardless, the next move should be on D, on. The bearish side, in my personal, opinion, okay, so, we'll see how, that actually, occurs, now. The euro yen, could. Start, a bullish impulse, right here in an extension, so if the euro dollar does go up and the euro gains indeed strength, it could gain strains, against, the yen, as well even though the, dollar, yen, looks. Possibly. On the downside. Pound. Dollar the, sorry, pound yen kind. Of the same thing and this is a corrective, structure, guys in my personal opinion if, this thing breaches, then I would, expect a rally inside. That okay, so keep an eye out for the, pound. Yen could, be promising. As you guys can actually see in an extension, inexpensive. Let's, say in a bullish extension, we have a B, right here in a running, actually, no expanding, flat in this minor, B and then, one two and, this. Could be an extension and again one two, and then three okay. So, that's what I'm talking about maybe maybe, possibly. We could have a bullish. Extension. On the, pound, yen. Pound. Swiss kind. Of the same thing and I. Would like to, extend. This pattern. Right here because, it's a large degree pattern, in B. Wave in an intermediate be, blue, so. What I'm saying is that a wave. Minor minor, a right there light blue and then, a complex. Structure, just like the pound dollar right W XY XZ triples, free so a B. And then C now, the pattern. As, you guys can actually see it's. Kind of looking like it could be an, expanding. Flat, due to the fact that the B wave went lower, than the start. Of a so. In that scenario wave. C should, exceed. The, end. Of a, okay. Now even watch extensions, from a towards B we have the 161. Points the fact that 100% has been. Has. Been exceeded, and, I wouldn't be surprised he would actually gain support, right here at the 100%, okay. Had. To 100% of that and, for, that we're just gonna use a Fibonacci. Retracement. For. These. Levels. 23.6. Or, 38.2. And you guys can actually see no. Magic here but. It is kind of magical. Right, 23.6. Aligns perfectly with, the 100%. Okay. So, this, could actually start. Continue. Basically, a bullish, move for the last fifth, leg just like the pound dollar so. Usd/cad. This. Fourth wave could be, soon. Ending. And. It. Could be promising for the next, move so I'm not saying that it's gonna I mean it could tank like that maybe, drop, and then commence, the second, wave so this could be one on a larger, degree scale. Okay, or if. Not then. The fifth leg could be extended but the way the, bigger. Picture, looks. This. Could be a wave one so, the start of something even bigger. Okay. So, that's, pretty much that's, pretty much it indices. Are still digesting. These. And the, X as, well going. Back on the dollar. Right, here as, you guys can actually see no major, moves. Right. So. Yeah. I think we're, done for for, today, we're just gonna, check the. Copy. Of today today's. Webinar, well Maria is it is being recorded yeah. So, it would you.
Would Actually find it it's Ashley streamed live on YouTube and Facebook so you'll find also the recording, on the orb explode, or and. Then upload it later on on the social. Media, channels okay. So. That's. That's. Kind of let's, say for instance let. Me just to, do. This okay. All right hope you guys can actually see me better. Right now I hope. You enjoyed, this session, hope it would it was actually helpful. And, it. Actually provided. You with confidence with your trading decision. So possibly, get some let's. Say. Confirmations. Or let's. Say confidence, whatever but, I'm just here to assist. You in the best possible way and, yeah. I think that, we're done thank. You very much for tuning in please remember to support. Me with a thumbs, up links in the descriptions, obviously. If you're watching this later and, hit. Me up with a message just send me a quick message if you wish to. Discuss. About something specific or, just. Just. Join join. Or bik's or if you are already or our Bex client, just a trader. Contact. Your a.m. if you want to have access to exclusive, material. From my side and from from other competent, analysts. Such as such as myself so until. Next time thank, you very much for tuning in as, I like to say to all my traders stay, in the green and many pips ahead bye, for now. You.