NIO IPO Delayed! This is HUGE! Biggest Breakthrough This Year!!
felix here guys we're talking nio the news is that the nio hong kong ipo is rumored to be delayed until october and why is that well it's good news because it means they're waiting for q3 numbers it means that we have lots of news that the chip shortage the worst part of it is over and therefore they're going to wait for this that great quarter to come in and it means that the dilution will bring us more cash next we're going to look at uh there's a fake nio car route i'm going to show you that there is also lidar news and there are more battery swap stations out and niocapital has bought into yushin a nasdaq listed second-hand car dealership so what's all that about we're going to look at that as well because that stock's tanked like 25 in the last 48 hours and we go of course going to round it up with the technical analysis on nio as always guys um check out the course coupons down below they are still valid till this sunday when the options trading course becomes public on the 21st so this is the pre-sale guys 39 off there for make money is the coupon if you want to earn passive income with options trading that's the way to do it 115 lectures plus coming and of course if you simply want to build long-term wealth with the stock options uh sorry the stocks not options there's a 29 off coupon down below some are good so check those out guys and let's dive straight into it um someone very kindly kevin on our discord posted one of these articles and it made me trigger and connect the dots in my head and the dots are as follows we were rumored to be having an ipo in hong kong right here where i am of probably five to seven percent of nio over or overall value and that's this due listing in fact they're probably going to triple list um if you hear that sound guys this is my chief financial analyst here this little monster so she might be making a few purring noises here so we're expecting that in august because normally to listen hong kong is very quick if you're already nasdaq if you're already listed in the us and they're delaying it why are they delaying it because this whole quarter is a bit of a damp squid is a bit of a flat one we know the cars we're going to deliver but we're not going to get much of a surprise there however this really ties it together and this is citic securities is a big investment bank out here they're saying they believe that may will be the worst time for chinese passenger cars as the tight chip situation begins to marginally ease from late to mid to late may and this is because there's going to be a capacity boost at renisas in japan where we had that fire and if you followed me for a while guys the fire was alive while we were live on the live call was rather dramatic and that was of course another kicker for the whole chip situation so they see that things are going to improve from june onwards and that's they're not the only ones saying that there's lots and lots of news out on that score basically cicc one of the largest chinese investment banks which were originally set up by morgan stanley i think it was more stanley they said that the um you know et7 is going to go on sale and it will be the most intelligent hardware equipped vehicle in the global automotive market so again the closer we are to the et sail launch i think the more bullish people will be on the stock and they're basically saying it comes with you know proper nio-autonomous driving which can do gradually everything trends driving should do and they're saying that nio will have industry leadership in autonomous driving so again to demonstrate that for us to get more data on that more of this kind of language will i think make people a lot more bullish on nio which is is rather exciting to see so in in short what's happening we are basically delaying the ipo until after the third quarter numbers are out and then you have higher deliveries per month you'll have a forecast for q4 at that point and you will presumably have a lot more revenue and profitability and better margins and all of that in q3 it means the price stock price is expected to be higher and it means that they collect more money per share they issue which for us as short shareholders we have to suffer through the dilution although five to seven percent isn't really all that much compared to q4 last year was 17 dilution q3 was similarly around 15 to 17 dilution so it's not a massive dilution but it still is dilution so wouldn't you rather collect more money than less money if you were selling something it makes sense and it'll allow nio to grow more and more cheaply from a shareholder point of view so i think that's that's very very good news for us and makes me rather bullish on the next quarter as well because if the management thing that they know more than we do right they they see the orders they see the pipeline they see the production issues and they see what they can actually do now you might see a photo of this on social media sort of touted as some sort of et5 et3 or the smaller sedan because we get expect to have a new smaller sedan launched at nio day likely in december possibly early january they're still confirming that but is it no because i found the original picture this is the original picture which is uh in chinese news and it's an et7 and it's an actual real built et7 and if you can see what they've done they've sort of messed with the back and try to make it look like a different car but it isn't it's a fake they've even managed to bother to change the wheels but i sort of thought it looked a bit off so it is soft it's complete nonsense that's what it is to show you that one so then we have a little bit of news here on on lidar new slider supplier is saying um that the product i'm gonna put out will respond to level three and level four autonomous driving and we are expecting that so level three means you basically don't need to do anything but you're still in control level four means you don't need to do anything unless the system tells you to so you're sort of sitting there like you know half asleep and then it beeps and it says hey uh warning do something and level four means you've swiveled your chair around and you've fallen asleep and you're having a foot massage so that's what we're aiming to get china is uh legally at level three this year i think level four will come next year so again i think they will therefore create autonomous driving champions because people can collect data and actually do this whereas what we're seeing in in the u.s and in europe is regulators worried every time somebody hits a tree now there are a lot of cars on the street a lot of trees get hit and i feel very sorry for the trees but that's no reason to stop technology he says if we draw an analogy with smartphones this is the eve of the smartphone explosion this was we are basically in 2006 when we were running around with nokia bricks and before we had you know all these lovely screens and things so that's basically where we are you're wondering what i'm doing with my hand i i have to uh a massage a cat otherwise uh they'll be all hell will break lucia she is only about five pounds but she rules me with an iron pool and we have more news also nio is putting up more second generation generation battery swap stations along highways and very strategically where there are very popular tourist sites so they're putting one up here near the sort of white horse temple shaolin temples which is a very popular tourist place so these things and i've been saying that all year is that these are not just battery swap places call this cat this cat i don't know what to do with that here we go and they're not just for battery swapping they're actually a massive massive billboard you know you are there refueling inhaling petrol fumes standing there and then someone sits in their car and magically it gets driven into this thing and three minutes later they drive out of it and you haven't even paid yet so that's also why they're doing it and they're putting them very strategically in all the great places where lots and lots and lots of people see them so it's just like putting billboards in the best places and you know they don't even have to pay for them for the land because now they have all these fantastic uh hookups with lots of different companies who own these um you know service areas so this might be uh this might be another petrol station i suppose i think a very very smart move and they are going to reach 500 this year they are at the moment building one every 0.8 days so they're building literally a battery swap station more than once per day and that'll get us to 500 by the end of the year at the moment we're at 250 which is i think fantastic because that also means there will basically be 500 massive great big billboards showing off the technology across china so a big boon now what's this last story yushun i don't know if you've heard of it it is nasdaq listed here it is a ticker u x i n it's a secondhand car dealer if you know a little bit about william lee's background nio ceo you know that his previous business was essentially second second-hand car dealer healing he had an online business which was sort of turned from a second-hand car dealer into more of a publication about cars and letting other people advertise on there to sell second-hand cars and that did reasonably well then didn't do so well and then 10 cent bought them out so you know he didn't he didn't do a bad job but it was listed in the us for a while and then got de-listed when 10 cent and a group of investors bought it out and niocapital which isn't nio it is a private equity fund essentially run under the nio brand and managed by nio it's the venture capital armor so they describe it here they have agreed to invest 315 million us dollars in yusuf and if you look at the stock chart here you might be thinking what on earth is this all about it's insane right it went up to the moon sorry these these are really old annotations that i put in there let me just see if i can delete them there we go i needed to lean around to see something there on my screen and we also have tpg one of the world's largest private equity u.s firms we've got warburg pinkers in there and they are converting some of their debt their bonds into convertible bonds into common um they're converting their convertible bonds into class a stock so it essentially removes debt load that's i guess what the hold the point is of all of this and william said that the used car market in china has the potential for exponential growth and we also know that nio is investing up to three billion uh i think it's a remnant b right yeah mmb so about 450 million us dollars into their second-hand retail business so it's this nio-certified thing which basically underwrites the value of a nio car and it means when you buy a new car you're not worried that you're going to lose half the money within a year because no one else wants to buy it nio basically says we'll buy it back from you at a guaranteed price and by doing that they won't have to it's like an insurance policy so that's why they're where they're doing that and i i imagine they're going to be tied in a lot more closely with usion uh because it makes sense right there will be lots and lots of nio cars that will be sold in the second hand market and you should we'll take a huge chunk of that so we're going to look at that stock chart as well here in a second and well why don't we do it right now and then we look at nio afterwards so what is it all about well the first thing i think that really springs to mind i hope you don't mind me carrying a cat on my shoulder i used to do it a lot i don't know she i think i don't know why she hasn't been sitting with me for a while um so what you can see down here is that a lot of people bought down here okay there she is gone bought in that sort of 150 to 2 range right that is like where most people bought and why you're wondering why can i tell that well the blue bars are the positive volume bars guys so they tell you what where it comes from and if you're wondering what that indicator is it's called visible range if you want to look it up on tradingview tradingview.com is the website i
normally use all of this technical analysis it's free and unless you want a few extra features like i i saved the charts so you guys can see them on the patreon but other than that you wouldn't need to pay for it and so you can see most people i know that price very little volume up here very very thin so we have this massive massive rally up obviously people are hoping that they were sort of going to turn around and get bailed out and then on the announcement of this deal we went down 12.9 uh yesterday another 12.6 and as i'm filming this we're down pre-market seven percent but it is still very pre-marketers i'm filming this guy so apologies uh but you can have a look at what's going on there today so this is this is proper taking right this is classic sell the news behavior and that's what we're seeing here now where's our support going to be as this go down it goes down and is this a a good investment that's really the question let me put in some retracements here so there is support here let me put in a few of those tags at 360. that's 360. and then there is a bit more after that at sort of 333. whoops where's my attack on there it is and then a bit more below that the slight problem with a profile that we have here on the side is when your blue bar profile you know down here is is like that as in everybody bought down here and hardly anybody brought up there the temptation is simply for people to sell and take profits and for the whole thing to come crashing down again to 160. so i would not touch this at this point i know new capital half but they probably have done it because they see very very different value for themselves as some sort of tie up to to run the second-hand car division but as an investor massive rally two days will be losing 25 you know what what is this what is to stop this from you know these guys who bought in the two dollars to three dollars range why wouldn't they cash in if you know if or you know the guys down here everybody who bought that 160 to two dollars they can still double their money or more than that if they just jump out now in in fear and then they can buy back when they get drops a little bit lower so i'd be very cautious of this personally we can also have a quick look at william's r and here you can see a massive massive sales signal here let me just put a line in here and then i put another line where this happened so you can see guys where that blue line dips below the horizontal red line which is the minus 50 point line that's the cell signal and then i put a dotted line here vertically up so you see where that kicked off and it was the big sell-off there and of course that makes sense right so we are still very very much in the doghouse and in terms of momentum here so would i touch this absolutely not i i would wait this out a little bit it's easy for some of that madness to to go away but i thought i'd throw it out there because it's an interesting company you shouldn't a uxin and certainly should be something on our radar now where are we with nio uh apart from a pretty drawing so that i put on here i do need to tidy up my charts sometimes don't i so many things i draw in and i look at it the next day and i'm like what what did i do there so messy well let's look at william's r here as well to round us up and again you know buy signal kicked in on the 21st of may and ever since we've basically been up here and not being up there is positive momentum it's a good place to be i'm very very happy to be up there the last time we were up there for such a long period of time you make this a little bit smaller so you can see it more easily was basically november last year and that was this beautiful rally i'm not saying we're going to get the same beautiful rally but i think we are still in in in the clear uh we had all that fed news yesterday all that you know all those dots and the threats of tapering they're going to decide on tapering in the next couple of months we might get two interest rate rises by 2023 or in 2023 and the market is just like yeah and so what uh we priced this in guys we are so you know still what is where we 46 we were at 60 something 65.
so 65 minus 46 is 19 over 65. we are 29 down so we've basically priced in three percent higher interest rates and that seems exceptionally unlikely to materialize in the next couple of years and therefore we are not bothered so that stuff in a way doesn't really move the market anymore i think we know you might still get a bit of panic selling occasionally and those are dips so you can jump in on but i i think this is really the whole inflation saga is well and truly priced in now in terms of uh you know we are still moving up above all of our ema lines we can also chuck a moving average line at this uh let's make that not nine days but change it to a hundred days that's a little bit more useful as an indicator and we are now you can see that here you see that blue line coming down that's the 100-day moving average line and we are nicely above it and it provides nice support for us as well so at sort of 43 what is it today 4348 we have a nice support level here if things get tested a little bit more let me put a little flag in here i'm off by one cent but it doesn't really matter so we have good support levels there that also coincides almost with the fibonacci support which is at 43.22 so that is a pretty good place to be okay 43.22 in fact it is you're always off one or two cents when you put these flags in
so for me nothing's changed here still bullish on this i think we should have a very good next three months coming up that's the way i see this um always doing research guys come to your own conclusions if you have any questions let me know ask me and if you're wondering how to do technical analysis how to analyze companies how to do financial analysis discounted cash flow models all of that i teach literally absolutely all of that in the master stocks course down below and that coupon code summer goat is valid only until sunday and if you want to make some money with um with options trading most people don't really understand options trading and what you can actually do which is why i had the box and drawn in okay if you're buying stocks right every single day you have more or less a 50 50 chance of going up and down in the long run okay you can work out a little bit but it's basically up or down and you got to make a bet you buy the stock it goes up or you short the stock it goes down and what you can do with options trading is you can make money in either direction so you can say you know nio is going to trade between 50 and say 43 dollars in this time frame in this box and as long as i am i'm not showing it to you apologies guys okay here we go so this box i've just put in here this one you could basically say as long as nio is trading here within you know say forty three dollars and fifty dollars as long as i'm in this this space here i make money and you can do that with a fixed probability and so you know okay 70 probability i'm gonna make money on this trade and therefore if you keep doing repetitive trades and remember the options options are much much cheaper they're a fraction of the cost of the actual stock then it means you can run multiple trades and in the long run i think it's a very good way of earning passive money if you really understand it guys so that's still on the pre-sale at the moment that course so check it out uh while it is the coupon code is of course make money and it's 39 off and of course both of them come with a private chat group you can ask me any questions you can ask like mine investors any questions and either way guys i truly appreciate you just for watching i love all of you guys who watch videos uh leave a comment hit the like button if you like it subscribe it and share and just interact and and and enjoy the content and i think truly truly appreciate that guys thank you very much for watching and see you on the next video