Ninjascalp feat TraderKoz Bitcoin (BTC) Live stream - 07/28/2021 - Much Trading Alpha

Ninjascalp feat TraderKoz Bitcoin (BTC) Live stream - 07/28/2021 - Much Trading Alpha

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yo yo what's good who's getting  banned today hey yo my boy dino   hey what's up guys thanks for  joining early you came in here quick note squad hey that's what's up run run you got  the naughty's on i see you boy what year is it   [ __ ] i don't even know what  here it is it's crypto man how's the chat doing market looking bullish   bearish bullish paris but we're going  to talk about the price action right now and we're going to see what's good  because it was an interesting day today yo the great ninja hey my boy i appreciate it  what's up guys hey the chat is live that's what   i like to see i like to see the chat chatting  man that's what's up appreciate you guys how was the um the music to the mic how is  the ratio sounding do i gotta lower the music bearish [ __ ] [ __ ] my  boy is bearish in the chat yeah i'm gonna talk about this chart uh thank you bro appreciate it the chat is live right now that's what i like hmm so we'll start in like two minutes so i'm i'm  supposed to be having like i'm pretty sure you   guys know who trader cause is uh he's supposed to  be joining and instinct is supposed to be joining   but this nerd said he don't got a mic like what  are you doing with your life you don't got a mic so yeah so maybe there'll be somebody  joining but we'll see but regardless   we'll we'll talk we'll discuss some bitcoin   and i have this uh zone here highlighted and i'm  gonna talk about it i'm gonna talk about this area but yeah how is the chat doing could you tune up  mic volume my system sounds are very loud compared   to your voice also your tv alarm sound is very  loud it's waking my girl yo i apologize [ __ ] i   think my mic is at the highest maybe i could lower  the music so i lowered the music just a tad bit how does that sound so i think i lowered the music a little bit too much let me just put it up a little bit is the music too low right now the mic is fine yeah the echo was  because i was trying to listen to it   um i was trying to listen to it on my laptop  i think i think somebody is trying to join   hold on let me see okay so i think trader joe's  trailer causes is in the house what's good so   can the chat can you guys hear trader cause right  now what's up guys can you hear me i need to pull   up your twitch stream on a different tab hold  on i'm gonna you know what i'm gonna do i'ma   share this screen into google so it won't  lag for you oh for sure let's see let's see this is trader cause guys so it's   it's me say what's up all right let me  see how do you share your screen in this we can do uh you can call me on discord too if you  want oh yeah i could see your screen on that yeah   you could that's what i did with uh smfx this  morning what's up banana ups what's up predator   mikel all right i'm down with whatever though  go go to um go to discord are you calling me uh hold on let me see let me try to call you on discord  troubleshoot troubleshooting right   now guys just give me like two two  seconds hold on start voice call yo yeah let's let's close let's close that  out all right can you hear me cause yeah   i just need to change the output so so can  the chat here cause do you guys hear cause yeah all right that's good all right  so they here there we go all right   all right so share your screen um let me  see loud and clear says jackie smoking cause   they're here cause all right can you see my screen  cause yeah yeah oh wow did i just share the obs are you good you can see it yeah i can  see i'm good cool all right so we good   all right so how should we start this um i usually  start reviewing my trade so i'm gonna ask the chat   so do your thing bro do you guys want  to see the review of last week's trade   that that we discussed on stream or should  we just start with the price action now neon skull says in my country cos means joint so  that's pretty cool all right they they some people   want the review some people want the price action  so oh no i'll talk about the price action now   and then later in the stream i could do a review  um based on the chart we had last week with the   trend lines all right so i'm just going to start  with this chart right here so so cause i'm gonna   talk about um this was one of the trades i took  with this chart i'm gonna talk about that and then   we could discuss uh we could just discuss whatever  honestly michelle how you doing though cuz   i'm good i'm good i'm having a dream i'm  living the dream man no complaints that's   good that's good good to have some volatility  so yeah bro it was crazy today all right so   let me let me switch up the vibes real quick  let me get a different different lo-fi going on   make sure to check i hear it make sure  you don't have any copyright infringements   now we good on this channel this is the  all right copyright for all right so   we're going to talk about my range  that i have for weeks so i think um i think i will start on the four hour  time frame and i'll put the replay tool   so i could give a quick history quick  history on this uh chart alright so basically   i've had this range pretty much from like i would  say the middle of june so once we topped here   i put this level right here at 40. 4356 because  when i do my ranges i like to put the price levels   at where i see the most reactions and i know  some people like to put it at the highs 42   but i just like the the most reaction so my  range is 40.3 and i like that area because we had   this kind of consolidation here right but once  we came back to around 40.3 we rejected once   and then we rejected again here around 40.3  so that was a swing point here and then  

we came back over here it acted  as resistance and rejection right so basically i have 32.9 as my range low   and that's pretty much because we had a swing  point here deviation here consolidation deviation   whatever you want to call it capitulation whatever  and pretty much this 32.9 level was significant   and i explained it uh in past streams but i'll  just give a brief explanation right now so   when we form this swing glow here and price  bounced to 36.7 which is pretty much near   my equilibrium level so the equilibrium is  pretty much half of this range so from 32.9   to 40.3 you just get a fib tool just get a simple  fib tool and there's do something like that and   you get the equilibrium around 36.6 36.7 and  these are my two ranges all right so i want to  

talk about it now so the first time we broke  the range to the downside was right here and   the reason 32.9 was significant was because as you  can see once we broke it it acted as resistance   and once we broke it here we didn't even get to  retest it so that's why i like 32.9 versus 33.34   all right so let's talk about on to now so on the  last stream which was pretty much the emergency   stream right we pretty much had this candle right  here and um i remember saying that uh i didn't   even catch this move like i didn't even take a  leverage position because i was i wasn't even   expecting this move to be honest but once i saw  this move break right through my equilibrium level   that gave me no reason to be bearish but at the  same time i wasn't interested to really take   a long position until we retest equilibrium so  as you can see price pretty much squeezed higher   to around 40 ks and then we came back to test it  the equilibrium right here and i remember this   because i did take a long but i didn't get fully  filled to be honest i think i got one third size   position at the equilibrium because i remember  saying in the last stream we broke out and i'm   gonna wait at the equilibrium because if we're  bullish we should hold above my equilibrium level   so basically you long here and in invalidation  would be if price would do something like this   you know and start acting as resistance so  that's why i pretty much longed and i remember   when we was dipping here everyone was turning  bearish and i put this tweet out i gotta flex   real quick i gotta flex the tweet because i was  looking for longs but i was seeing people talk   about 32k and and whatnot so basically [ __  ] where's my tweet am i between too much huh   me too yeah i tweet so much [ __ ] oh okay this  one right here so at 40k all dips were for buying   at 36k you are scared and ready to go back into  cash and it's pretty much because when price was   in this area right people didn't people  wanted to buy but they were waiting for a dip   so like when the dip finally came every well most  people were scared but for me i was ready because   one i had the equilibrium level and this gives me  a bias so like if we're holding above this level   then i'm going to remain into a long position and  if we start closing below that's when i would exit   the position all right so that's just the history  and i did exit the position too early so like   i took one third position around 36.8 and i had  bids literally like 36.2 36 but i never got filled   anyways i took profit on this position around uh  39 and i was actually surprised that we continued   higher but let's talk about my plans right  now since we're at the uh range high level so   first of all i'm not interested to take a  long position here and why is because we   i want to see us close above this first because  as you can see it's acting as somewhat resistance   so i want to see as close above 40.4 40.6  and a daily close would be nice but um   as for now i'm not interested to long  hair maybe a dip but i have to reevaluate   so i'll do a chart later but we're still  bullish all right because as you can see we have like it looks like it's about to explode  to the upside i'm not even lying so what i did   was i pretty much hedged my long position because  i'm still holding uh some of my lungs from 29.3   on the september 24th future contract so i'm  holding some of that long like probably 20   percent of position so what i did was hedge  that position and i hedged some of my spot   so i pretty much hedged on the 12 31 contract if  you guys are familiar with um future contracts   so the 12 31 contract is trading at a premium so i  pretty much hedged that and basically if the daily   closes above this level then i would probably  um go back into my spot right away and then   consider probably longing a retest but for  now i'm hedged and um what i want to see is   price start closing above 40.6 and i want  to see some this level holding basically  

and that will give me a reason to be even  more bullish but i'm still holding along and   i'm not in any uh leveraged longs at the moment  so i'm just waiting and um what else do i have   to say i have this zone here because i wanted  to talk about this zone real quick so basically   like i was pretty much scaling  into my hedge over here   when price broke out i was  scaling in and i saw we dumped   and i didn't even take profit because when i  hedged i'm expecting to take profit near 36   because my invalidation is above so i didn't  take profit here so i'm still holding the hedge   and during the fed meeting from what i remember  we got this because i was looking at price i   was in my bed i was looking at it at 39k  i was in my discord talking [ __ ] and um   in a few minutes we pumped something crazy so the  reason i have this zone here real quick is because   if you replay it we had this crazy  bullish engulfing candle right   so when people see this bullish engulfing  candle the first thing they're going to do   is mark it long because first  of all we're at resistance right   so this is the four hourly and this is the  hourly rate so on the hourly it looks very   bullish like the next hour candle is going  to get sent right so what happens next all right we pump and then fail so how i look at  this candle from like a psycholo psychological   view is like people market along into this bullish  candle and currently there are trapped lungs at 44   40.4 and what not so the next candle nuked and  basically how i'm viewing it is that there's a   lot of longs that pretty much along market so in  order for me to be bullish i would like to see the   trap longs get relief and continuing by pressure  so if i see something like this i will pretty much   go back into spot and re-evaluate because um  there's probably not much above here except for   like 42k so if it breaks 40.4 and holds above then  i think we could get 40 42k minimum but for now   we hold the hedge and hold some longs and just  wait patiently um yeah that's pretty much it   for for the price action right now but later on  in the stream i could uh i could chart something   fresh and look at my other charts but for now we  got cause here so i must just see if he wants to   uh you know talk about anything so what's up guys  you still here or you left i'm i'm still here   all right still here don't worry i'm not leaving  so what's up what you thinking about bitcoin would   you like to share your screen or um do you want to  just yeah i can do that all right so might as well   hear all the shared on discord with you so let me  disconnect wait hold on let me stop all right so all right all right you got your screen can  you see it yeah i'm gonna um basically i have   to switch it into obs i hope it doesn't mess up  wow so like i think i would have to like really   so that doesn't make my screen up if we  if it's too complicated i can just talk   you want to just talk whatev whatever is easier  man hold on all right cool i'm good with you   let me try something right now   sorry if i messed the stream up guys  i'm going to try something right now   he's going to take a risk i risk it for  a biscuit your discord really zoomed in   yeah i see that's weird all right so let me  see if i could uh if you just click like the   screen share thing or whatever and make it  full screen then it might all right so how oh wow this is like a bootleg yeah yeah i'm not sure if they'll be able  to uh all right so you know what oh what's   going on i can just talk all right i bet  so just talk i'll try to follow it just   oh my god you're good just go back to your  screen yeah um or actually here let me uh   i like send you two charts or something on  discord and then you can just pull those up   mm-hmm that should be easy yeah definitely give  me one sec so we're about to get two opinions on   where where price is going this is interesting  that's what and i think they're going to be   relatively similar yeah so you got ninja at  resistance scared until we close above 40.4   and we about to find out how kaz is playing  this let me see if those are the only two all right one more can you send me the wait i  think i could copy the link and post it yeah just   do like open original or whatever oh [ __ ] when  you uh actually can you copy it from your trading   view and send me the trading view link or i think  those are them but discord just automatically   opens the uh opens the uh or like gives a  preview if you click on the image though   and then click open original  it should open it like as a tab yeah it's weird you know what i'm saying yeah this thing is weird so you you you  know when you could go to your trading view   are you looking and you go on the  top right you could take a snapshot   yeah can you try to do that oh you could  and then copy paste that link oh it's   it's putting i'm doing so copy paste it but  like put some periods at the end all right there's one does that work yeah i think  that's going to be good dang i'm so low   iq nah this thing is just complicated for  no reason all right so this is his chart   so can stream see this chart it's a  little blur here you want to do the uh   the second one first all right i kind  of sent him out of order now because all right it it still is pretty blurry but how  does that chart look stream not bad yeah that's   not bad so yeah this is kind of the main i got  it i got an idea too so we're gonna do this all right so this is this is kind of the main  range that i'm looking at the range low is   about 31.1 range high is the weekly high from  like may 26th so basically if you look at a uh   so your range is clean it's not it's not  bad so yeah you got that first tap there   then we swept the high came down to the low  and now we've tapped it again so for me kind   of like ninja was saying as well like we  are definitely at resistance right now   um so it's a little bit of a no trade zone  for me i'm not super interested in shorts   at the moment i did take one earlier but closed it  for basically break even after paying fees because   i think it doesn't look quite as bearish when  you like with monday's range usually when i see   a sweep of monday's high i want it to be like  a bigger sweep and we kind of went over by like   100 bucks and now we're kind of just hanging  around monday's high i'd rather see like an   aggressive move up definitely like  monday sweeps you're talking about   sorry yeah so i'm talking about a different uh so  monday here let me let me send you uh let me send   you i think this was the sunday candle you're  talking about sunday sweep right here this one   no like the that high you're pointing at right now  that one was one i just i just sent you another   oh okay another screenshot that might make it  easier yeah so we took out that high that you   kind of just drew on um and i mean there just  hasn't been much of a reaction like we sold   off a little bit right after but now we're kind of  just hanging out around the range high and usually   i like to see it make a more aggressive move  above that high yeah and we only went above   it by like 100 or 200 bucks yeah so for  me to get short i would want to see us   push up maybe take out that high from june 15th at  like 41.3 or whatever like this like really get a  

uh yes something like that yeah yeah get more of a  spike up and then break back down below and that's   kind of the only way so like something i know  you want to see your ring tie act as resistance   yeah pretty much so that's kind of the main  short scenario i'd be looking for i don't   want to just short here uh when we tap it i would  need to see something kind of like what you drew   um and then otherwise if we can break above  um it's basically 41 that range high if we   can break above that there's nothing really there  right right yeah then i think i think it can move   and move for a little bit so yeah so i'm just  watching to see how we interact with that level   if either we spike it again or if we break above  and stay above then i'll be looking for longs but   yeah it pretty much just all hinges around  that 41k level and for now i'm kind of just   being patient and waiting to see if anything  happens and on the other hand if it does pull   back i'd be interested in longing around like that  34 35 k level which the monthly opens around there yeah yeah pretty much right there  because this is the this candle is   pretty much the one that squeezed it so right so  maybe we spiked down dip to the origin of that   pump and then get back above the mid range or  something and that would give me like a little   bit more confirmation and then stop loss would  go at the low and then i could enter when it's   back above the mid range kind of to tighten my  risk so i have a better invalidation rather than   just chucking a stop loss somewhere because those  two kind of consolidations or slow grinds up like   it's just a bunch of higher lows and this one  right here uh these higher levels right here oh   yeah you know about this uh like at 30 at like no  i like 34k and that 32k those okay yeah yeah yeah   so both of those like those break up a lot  of the time when you get that slow grind up   um i feel like bitcoin does that a lot but they  retrace a lot of time right a lot of times it   comes back and takes out everyone who got long in  that zone so i don't know i'm a little torn big   picture like i do still think we are stuck in a  range unless we break out of like break above 41k right and it's good to see some life from  bitcoin it's good to see us like push from   28 to 41 in like six days yeah um that's nice  like it like it's good to see it actually move   but i'm not convinced like this was the low and  we're breaking out of the range now so all right   i don't know kind of level by level you think  that at some point we could take these lows out um yeah so i think let me send you a  i'm going to send you another chart   on shortcuts he said agreed it's very unhealthy  right i'm trying to see what so a lot of people a   lot of people think the move was solely because  of um amazon but in my opinion it was just   like over leveraged shorts and plus a lot of  people off like out of the market so like right   and there's no dips given so like so like they  kind of fomo back in and you can see the cope   on twitter and like you can see a lot of coke  from even og's that like are salty because they   didn't get the longs down here you can see it  just look at their timelines they're bearish as   [ __ ] and i can understand it people who believe  are it is amazon as news yes i agree with crater   yeah so most recent chart that i just sent  you you want to open that one up really quick   so this is talking a little bit more like macro  perspective i guess um and i think let me get   i think the low could be in i'm not like ruling  that out i do think it's i do think it's possible   but i think a scenario like this is a little more  likely like we we have like six wicks into this uh   28 29 k region and i just don't know if those  are gonna stay there and i mean this isn't really   super actionable like this is it's just it's it's  kind of a theory it's not like oh i'm waiting for   this to get long or something like that i'm mostly  i mean i was mostly in spot i've started to sell   some because that's just what i've been doing  this entire range is buying spot between 30 and   32 and selling it between 40 and or well 38 and  41 give or take um oh so you were out of spot   no oh okay i was going to say now you got to be  a btc maxi bro i was holding from like 50k bro   all the way to like 29k no can't i mean right so  here's the thing i've got a like long-term spot   bag that i just don't touch and every now and then  like i'll transfer btc to that account and that's   like my this is my moon bag i'm holding this  bitcoin till who knows how long and i'm just gonna   hang on to it and then within my trading  accounts i will rotate between usdt   and so i'll actively trade my spot in my trading  accounts um and so like on buybit or whatever   i'll convert my btc to usdt or on ftx i'll  convert it to usd um so i've kind of been   trading that spot bag throughout this region and  i um here let me pull up a chart i bought spot   mid-june like the 22nd to the 27th when we  had that spike down and then the retrace   back down to that low that's kind of when i  loaded up on some spot um for the third time   because i held the first like crazy wick down  i held a lot through there my buys were higher   than i mean like 29.99 uh so the it's the  very first wick down you're talking about   the the the one around me in june yeah so for that  one my spot buys were pretty trash like i kind of   thought i was buying between like 39 and 37 mostly  i bought 46k really yeah i mean dude how are how   are we supposed to know like it did not seem like  it was going to drop this far i thought we were   going to fill in the gap from the elon candle  on like february 8th and then pop right right   yeah so that's kind of what i was thinking so kind  of mismanaged that poorly but then i was able to   sell some of it after that very first big bounce  i don't think i didn't get it quite at like 42.5   i think i sold most of that at like 40 or 39  so like more or less break even but man it was   a bit of a relief to get out of that and then  when it came down on june 8th i bought around 33.4

yeah i mean you can you can go to your chart  if you want because you can move it around more   um and then sold that june 15th when we had that  really clean sweep i remember we were talking in   discord about how that looked like the top and  i sold spot and shorted it but then closed the   short at like 37 because i'm a weak handed paper  boy yeah bro trust me i shorted i know what you're   talking about because i did the same [ __ ] bro  so like yeah you're talking about around this   time yeah i shorted that sweet at like right i bro  i showed it 40.3 and i covered everything at 37.   i think i closed most of it at like 38. but the  nice part was i did sell spot there too and i   stuck with that and then bought that spot back  between 30 and 31 like towards the end of june   and then i've been holding that by ever since  yeah this this range is like it's gonna go   down in history for sure right it's been it's  been pretty nice like i did not catch much of   this move with leverage but those late june spot  buys are up like 30 now and i think i've closed   probably around 40 of it but once again this is  like i would probably say like 20 of my portfolio   of my like spot portfolio i'll trade um because  like i said you're basically leveraging that   yeah okay but i mean i'm not like i'll just risk  one one and a half sometimes two percent but then   the like i will trade from a higher timeframe  perspective that spot like i'll manage that spot   but i won't manage my long-term spot because it's  like when you're wrong when you're managing spot   like it's just so hard to get back in yeah like  if this if this just rips from here like goes up   20 tomorrow yeah it's like well are you going  to buy your spot back at 50 and then it's like   if it goes up another 10 from there are you gonna  buy your spot back at 60. so a lot of the times i   prefer to just hedge with a short because then  i have an invalidation i know where i'm wrong   and then like if i get stopped out that's fine  because you're holding spot pumping right yeah   that's that's pretty much what i'm doing here  like i'm shorting i think my entry on the um the   december 31st future is like 41.5 or 41.6 it  wicked to like 42 k's and stuff so it was like   yeah so like a nice entry so let me tell you  guys something on the reason i shorted that um   the futures contract so if you guys don't know um  there's the inverse swap which is btc versus usd   and then they have um future so they have the the  one expiring uh september and they have the ones   expiring december so these contracts trade at  a premium so december the fact that we're uh   bullish right now it's it's even more of a  premium than it should be see like we wicked um to   40.7 and it was at 40 point 40 42. look at  that so it had a three percent premium right   right and i want to tell you guys something  because this is alpha you guys don't know   but this is alpha you know i always give alpha  right so pay attention to this so this contract   is trading at a three percent premium over  here right at the top because we're bullish   and the more bullish it gets the more there's  a premium on this contract so when we were here   right dude do you want to guess what the premium  was on the contract cause like two percent or   something oh you're pointing sorry you're pointing  down there yeah so we have premium down there   so it was like less than one percent over  here okay yeah that makes sense and um   september was even trading at a discount the  september one was negative like one percent   that's the legal alpha for loss yeah so like  futures contract at a discount exactly so the   reason i'm short in this is because three percent  premium so like let's say right hypothetically   that we top out here and we start going  towards 36 so the premium is gonna go lower so   that will give me even more um a percent win  if we go down on that so that's pretty much my   theory behind it and my invalidation on that is  very it's very simple like if i see a daily close   above this area i'm out i'll take the loss quick  small loss and then we continue right we go to the   next play so there is there's more alpha there too  when there's a really big premium or discount and   you can just make a risk-free interest rate yeah  for sure like it's it's beautiful like let me see   if they even have them here so btc 12 so ftx has  their contract all right so ftx see this is what   i'm talking about see ftx even wicked to 42.5  look at that so that's like we wake to 40 point  

what was spot at so what spot topped out at 40.8  let's say so if you look so from 40.5 or 40.8 that was wow see they have 4.3 premium right yeah  and the bottom was 29.7 look at that you see that   right so like that's like two percent or one  percent premium so yeah it's like something like   you could think about if you want to hedge so what  i do is basically i'm i'm shorting that contract   with with spot that i would want to sell  at this level you know what i'm saying   so like if i have 2pd 2 btc and i want to sell  0.5 i'm gonna short 0.5 worth at this level you   know what i'm saying and then once we go  lower i'll just buy it back and i'll earn   in btc so i'll get btc even though the price  went down so you save you save some type of   money that's what i mean by a hedge and like if  i see the regular price start closing like this   yep i'm out of there see like it's very very  tight in validation at these range levels   but yeah um right you want to discuss anything you  want to discuss anything else with with the chat   um if people want to learn more about that  they can google contango and backwardation   now you're giving too much alpha now  bro you you got to chill with that bro   gotta they gotta follow me  on twitter for now i'm joking   it's kintango yeah like he said can tango  yeah um i'm trying to think i mean i really   don't have too much right now just because i'm  more so in uh just wait and see type of mode go ahead so no someone asked a good question how  how do you trade breakouts so how would you trade   this breakout and then i'll answer how i would do  it so like would you even trade this breakout at   this point um like what would you want to see  price do because i know it's lagging for you   hold on maybe let me let me screen share so you  so you won't get that lag oh am i screen sharing   i think you still are yeah you're good um i would  say i mean i would want to see it get above that   40.7 i would say i mean so when i trade a breakout  i don't want to see like a and i'm usually trading  

like a 30 minute hourly time frame like i'm not  scalping a lot like ninja um but i would want to   see like an impulsive move out of here to convince  me that it's like a legit breakout yeah and then   i'll just look for any kind of retrace to get  along so if i had to like draw it or give an   example oh so you don't ate in you don't market by  you wait for confirmation yeah all right gotcha so   you wait so i would i would want to see it push  to like 41.3 41.4 or something like that so you   want to you want it to push all the way you would  probably you might have to zoom out a little bit   zoom out okay i mean because the top of your  screen's like 41 point yeah so like yeah so   i would want to see it break above those  highs not just instantly sweep it and then   get a retrace into anywhere in that region  like a break like this right and then you   want to right get it i don't want it i don't  want it to like get swept or i don't want it to   have like a strong rejection immediately i want to  see price like actually people say find acceptance   but like hold above that level you know when  resistance is really strong it's going to smack   price down quick so pretty much i want to see it  actually hold above the level maybe consolidate   a little bit maybe it forms like a low time  frame range that it sweeps the low of and then   it's like all right there's my low time frame  setup in context with my higher time frame idea   all right so so you you you play it  safely you don't you don't really ape into   breakouts much not really yeah i rarely do because  like i've done it before and like you could   take like quick losses and even like slippers  because you have to market into them and like   you pay fees so like it's very rare i take  a break out but i do take them sometimes   and what yeah what i would like is the first  breakout so like if i was paying attention   over here then i would pretty much long this  breakout on july 28th so like we could even   look at footprints to see if if we could find some  type of uh increase in volume and and whatnot and   we could go dive deeper into this so we could  review a missed trade because this was a nice   little breakout right here you could have took  it on leverage and made a quick little profit   because as you can see right we wick yeah like  this one these weren't so good but even if you   longed this breakout you could have you know made  some profit because like you want to be in and out   if you're going to market buy and you can set  a limit bid 100 200 away as bitcoin is coming   down that's what i like to see so yeah we're  going to talk about this price action right now   and then maybe later we can review that trade so  so how i look at this price action right and i'm   going to go back to what i was stating earlier  on lower time frame price action it's basically   i'm using candlestick psychology and i love using  that because i like to to like try to picture   what type of people are entering and i i discussed  this so this was the fed candle right here and   extremely bullish like i was watching order flow  and i was like yep i'm about to get right in my   hedge but it's fine so like when you see this your  first thing is like holy [ __ ] market buy right   and then like i said earlier the idiots i don't  want to call them idiots whatever so like people   market buying they're all trapped right here  around 40.5 and that adds some more confidence to   my pretty much range high at 40.3 so i would never  load that um and pretty much how i'm gonna play it  

is like all right so if you zoom back to uh this  price action uh this candle that sent us down   i don't really know what happened but that that  candle right here so how i look at this is this   pretty much broke this whole market structure  so if i'm watching lower time frame and i'm   even scalping i'm gonna use this candle as  as my uh bias it's gonna give me bias so um   yeah we dipped i didn't take profit like a  noob and then pretty much we broke above it   so on this first break if i'm lower timeframe  scalping i'm going to have a bull i'm going to be   looking for lungs because this candle i was using  to give me bias and then pretty much once we close   above it on the 15 minute it's going to give me  bull bias right so same thing coming back around   right as you can see right now we close below the  bearish candle and you can see even on lower time   frames that right you see the region it starts  from it starts from pretty much here hold on   right it starts from here and that's going  to give me the bear bias so like if if bulls   get above here then i could start you know  being lower timeframe bullish but as long as   this candle that sent us down is holding as  resistance as you can see on lower time frames   then it gives me a better bias on the lower time  frame so i know there's people trapped here right   because we talked about these people if we  zoom into the one minute time frame we talked   about these people building positions too long  expecting probably a breakout above 41 or whatnot   so we have trap lungs here and then we have the  whole shift here so how i'm thinking is like   if people is long here where is  going to be their stop losses right   so like we got to see where they're going to get  stopped out or potentially and maybe something   like right here right because this is the move  up so we can see probably a reaction lower time   frames and then definitely below here is going to  be a bunch of liquidity you know so maybe i could   take some off my hedge or whatnot  but right now lower time frame   i'm still kind of lower time frame uh bearish  basically but that's all for this chart i think   i'm gonna move on to other charts as well so we  could see um i haven't really been been uh been   reading the chat they said what caused you what  what caused you on a white ninja i think it was   like a what cause you on with me oh oh oh oh yeah  just without the people and causes kaz is my boy but yeah that's lower time frame bias um let's go  to my other charts and see what we have because i   have like a bunch of charts and you can feel  free to add anything cause by the way like   you want the stream i appreciate  you appreciate having you by the way   so like if you want to add anything  and right now my head is looking good   i love it that is it's looking good so  like if it breaks your meme line yeah so   so this right here right it's pretty much my bias  on you know higher type of time frames to give me   a bull buyer so as long as price is holding above  here then i'm i'm bullish on a bigger picture so   if we do come down here right now because this  was the trend line from live stream best believe   i'm going to be looking to long down here  so like 100 i will long uh from 38.3 to 37   and then my validation would probably be  we can go all the way back to this candle below this this area right here so that's  like what so this is a play from this chart but yeah i'm hoping we're gonna dump because  i saw a lot of people getting bullish   and i'm head short so i wanted  to dump right right cause   not really but i do scotty says uh scotty says  it's got a similar fractal here on low time frame   as we had at the 19k consolidation to all-time  high so scotty's probably long based on it at   you guys should fight i could feel the long on  scotty right now but hey pull up the uh he says no   but pull up the daily chart the daily it doesn't  all right so yeah on bitcoin oh wow scott is short   but yeah that it doesn't so even this daily candle  we sfp look at that yeah we took out and that was   monday's high right there see look at that that's  even yeah all right in the resistance here we go   now vino said who's getting banned now nobody's  getting banned the chat the chat is good right now   so i want to talk about daily sfps so i know  we have um i know we talked about hourly sfps   so right now i'm going to talk about daily s p  because we have one playing out right now and this   could be huge this could be huge right now all  right regardless of how bullish this [ __ ] looks   one two three four five six seven eight and then  we have um what is it we have one hour left and   they have to do some more selling and we're gonna  have our first red candle if asia decides to hit   the cell button so we're gonna we may have a  first red candle but we gotta see how this time   this plays out so yeah i'm going to talk about  this real quick do you want to add anything   um real quick no i mean i i just wanted you to  look at it because i was just looking at that   oh yeah bro you bailey looks kind of bearish you  gave me some nice now i have a new invalidation   bro thank you so now i could hold my short  or heads a bit longer and maybe add on to it   on it on tomorrow's daily clothes hey i have one  i got one question sure how many years until kade   cunningham's an all-star um if y'all don't know  who kate cunningham is that's a college basketball   player yo no cap cuz that's the only guy i watched  um in college that's the only guy look he's gonna   be a star glory days back to detroit like he's  gonna they drafted him well he's gonna be the   first pick probably drafts tomorrow and the  pistols got the first pick so kate cunningham   he's gonna be the real deal because i watched  him play he got he got a lot of composure and   it's a wrap he's going to be good yeah but yeah  let's talk about i like to hear it all right   let's talk about this daily i just want to get a  new chart and i like to look at coinbase because   the other charts can we delete this chart  let me see nah these trend lines is wait are   these trend lines good because maybe if we do  come down here all right i'm gonna keep these   trend lines [ __ ] see i have i have problems  deleting my charts that's what's wrong with me   all right so maybe if we go on this daily  time frame we have the same sfp all right cool   all right so i could talk about the sfp on this  right here all right let me change the color   because i'm tired of this dark on dark gary just  sent me those two uh charts he's talking about   i can confirm it does look pretty similar all  right so we're gonna we're gonna look at that next   well let's see let's see what i'm talking  about here all right so yeah do your thing   sfp we're gonna do a whole new um chart  on daily time frame and talk about sfp so   this level right here right 40.526 new chart  that i just saw thanks to cause cause this is uh   i don't really look at daily time frame like that  but this right here is just beautiful all right so   we have this level here on a daily right   resistance resistance resistance 40.5  and now acting as resistance right so   let's see if we could drag this and get  a better daily level come to the downside   um this is pretty clean i think i like this level  right here what is this 34.6 so 34.6 is a good   daily level to be honest that's nice yeah all  right now i'd say that's pretty close to where   i would uh look to wong yeah it looks it looks  really nice when when i look at it because you   can see how support support deviation um broke  turned into resistance broke struggled resistance   and then boom wow [ __ ] maybe i gotta start  looking at the daily timeframe i'm not even lying   like this is this is so clean right here like if  i was a swing trader like this is clean all right   so let's get let's get um equilibrium all right so  we're going to start here and then we're going to   try to get it as close as possible here all right  this is dark so we're going to make the 0.5 white  

all right so what's that 37.558 all right so we're  going to get 37.558 that's going to be our eek 37.558 so i want to talk about something right now  because this is going to be my new higher time   frame uh bias right now because i might even  short now because this is a a valid setup now   i have risk risk defined setup here all right  so first um we had break up market structure   on a daily time frame right here so if you could  see we'll start back in what is this march first   we have this little daily block right here  so price tested the daily block once it held   and then we bounced to 60s wow that's pretty nice  and then once it came back to the daily block   tried to hold and we broke right that daily  block level so that is 48 48 ish right there   all right broke retest on this daily wick  and broke down all right so resistance right   and now it finally found some demand  in this range and as you can see 40.5   acted as the first resistance we went  down to 30s came back 40.5 resistance  

deviation resistance and now we are here and  now we just sfp that level swing failure pattern   all right swing failure pattern right here  so now my short scenario now based on causes   point out is gonna be my new invalidation is  gonna be a clean daily close above this level   so now i'm actually going to be looking to  aggressively short now because now i have   real invalidation all right so i'm hedged at  the moment but i'm just going to hold that   hedge and i'm not gonna look to take profit on  it maybe if we come down to 38 i'll probably   take some off the hedge and look for another uh  another short basically but based on this daily the setup would be any daily close above 40.9 on finance what is  the level on coinbase is 40.9 as well so so now   new invalidation is a daily close above  40.9 that's my new invalidation on   bare bias short bias all right so the  short setup would be something like this   when you're taking short i'm already short but  if we do bounce higher i'm going to be looking to   enter into shorts now and maybe i'll look at the  order books and see if i could see some increased   volume and if i do see increased volume with with  longs opening up then maybe i will just wait too   short all right but basically anywhere from 40.5  with you know probably 40 41 whatever you want to   put your stop all right or maybe you don't even  need to use the stop you can target range lows   and you have yourself a nice little swing  uh position you could you could target   um the demand the one that took us out right so  there's many things to target and we can even do   a fib from this candle because i do like  this candle and let's say this is the top   so we have something like that um let's see if i  could get better green vibes all right so we have start at a fib level from here and pretty much we're going to say that this is  the swing high all right so these fib levels is   going to act as areas that we can look to buy some  uh some long so this is going to be my new chart   thanks to cause so cars you better get  into in this trade with me so we could   uh flex on it together all right i got no i'm  saying because this daily candle we just sfp   right and sfp is basically as long as it closes  yeah as long as it closes like this i don't   absolutely don't think they could pump this [ __  ] in one hour to 40.5 i'll be surprised hopefully   hopefully it's a red candle let's see what happens  if it's a red candle i think we'll see uh some   more selling at the daily open but we'll see what  happens by the way i'm still holding spot so i'm   still holding a spot position and as you can see  we kind of are building a order block near uh   near the resistance so this is also something to  look at this is a nice little order block we have   um on higher time frame four hours so i'm going to  mark the 618 because that's going to be important   i'm going to draw a little tiny zone at the  0.5 all right and then i'm going to draw a   little zone at 37.6 so the this 37.6 level is  a 3.82 level and it even um coincides with the  

equilibrium on this daily uh daily  range level and then we have the 0.79 so this is fib this is fib 101. you you  i know you messed with fibs right cause   um i'll pull them up every now and then for  confluence but i wouldn't say like every trade   i take i got yeah i definitely rarely use fibs  but for now we're going to use it as confluence   because yeah it just looks good for me right now  right like yeah that that sweep in the resistance   can be uh pretty powerful and work out every  sweep is gonna work but when it's right into a   resistance level that kind of adds some validity  to it for me and also if we close a daily candle   above 40.6 40.7 then that's the highest  daily candle of this entire range   um and that might signal a possible  breakout out of this range and then   you get stopped out of your one short and you  just go back to long everything mode for a   little bit up to like 45 whatever yeah pretty  much so so it's like very tight in validation   and now i'm gonna actually look to short pull  backs if we dip a little more but i'm gonna wait   because i'm already hedged i'm happy i got  a hedge off because if you see this tweet always hedge i love to hedge especially if we have  range highs but honestly my levels to target if   we broke would have been these levels you know  so you know i was in spot two so but we'll see   it's still early to call it so we'll see how how  it plays out but for now i'm gonna keep the the   bear scenario and here's a bull scenario now  since you guys think i'm just a bear right now   all right so let me just hide this real quick  so here's the bull scenario for me right   so we had this daily sfp that i just made right  now and basically for me i would like to see this you see this little order block here  that means people are bidding and whoever   is going to win will find out who's going to  be the winner i have to check the order books   and we got to give it some time so um based off of  this order block here in a four hour time frame if   we do something like this like if we do pump off  the daily and we pump violently and we break highs   i'm gonna be sitting here and i'm just gonna  wait too long to pull back in this order block all right so i'm not gonna long  the retest of the resistance   but i'll wait in this order block patiently and  i'll probably exit my uh hedge so yeah daily sfp   um a daily close above 40.9 would get me out  of my hedge now that's my new invalidation   40.9 thanks to cars for pointing that out got you  so yeah you want to talk to you you so did do the   chat want to ask cards anything since we have them  here guys got any questions feel free to ask cause   questions because even from from the past  couple months just being around cause   he's a really good trader very a lot of discipline  so like yeah you can talk about discipline because   i've been following you for a while and you've  been trading you've been in the game for a while   right and you probably have you know i would say  one of the best disciplines from what i see like   talk about that tell the chat like how did you  develop discipline because your risk management   is clean i don't think i ever saw you get really  wrecked right like like me i've lost 20 30 on   trades i don't think i've seen you lose that  much or maybe in the past but now you're more   structured i haven't hasn't happened in a few  years at least i think when i first started i   would i would like revenge trade a little or do  whatever you know it i think the emotions can   just catch up to you one other here there are a  couple quick ones and then i'll talk about some uh   discipline slash whatever stuff uh how old am i  i'm 23. um i started trading when i was 18 and a  

half 19 something like that nice um how are you so  good cause um a lot of practice i guess journaling   honestly journaling is the key man like you can't  just trust your brain to remember every single   thing you see every trade you take everything  like that and it just comes down to data like that   that's all that trading is it comes down to data  especially when you use discretion and it's not   like we all try to have a systematic approach but  to a certain degree discretion is involved and   having a journal having that data to back up um  the discretionary decisions that you make i think   is one of the most important things in trading  like if you're constantly closing all your trades   early if you're constantly getting stopped out and  then it goes to your target like hey if you notice   that a lot if you've written that down in your  journal all the time then it's like okay maybe   i need to adjust my stop-loss placement if your  trade is about to hit target and then it reverses   and that just happens to you over and over again  you might remember it eventually just based off   memory but it'll really jump off the screen at  you if you're journaling and you're writing down   like what's happening after your trades what's  going wrong what's going well everything like   that i mean just write down as much as you  possibly can and i can really quickly go through a   list of what i write down so how do you take a  trade sorry to cut you off but how's your how's   your journaling these days after you found success  are you still like heavy on top of your journaling   uh i still am sometimes i get a  little lazy but when i do i think i   like it reflects in my training yeah like i can  i can see myself regress a little bit when i suck   at journaling for a while or when i'm lazy with it  um one sec let me look through the chat so i don't   uh optics ask if we're day trading crypto  pretty much i mean depending on the time   frame he says he's new to all this but  trying to get into it and learn trading   yeah i mean that's that's essentially what we're  doing that's all i do is they trade bitcoin where   are you guys trading futures i mostly use buybit  i think ninja mostly uses delta yeah i use a mix   of both you know and um we could talk about that  later because they are sponsoring a stream oh yeah   so let me just say that now since you're reminding  me so right so delta they're sponsoring the stream   and um i need you guys to use my ref link i  need you guys to use my ref link all right   i need you guys to use my ref link where's my  wrestling at here we go right here that's your   youtube i need you guys to use my reference so  yeah delta is sponsoring the stream and i need   you guys to use my ruffling um they have  a lot of uh a lot of coins they they added   some stuff you know their ui it needs some work  but from my experience no lag orders get filled so   i need you guys to use my wrestling and um another  thing traitor cause if you guys do not follow him this is his twitter so you guys can  follow him he's partnered with bybit   i'm partnered with delta but i need  you guys to use my ref link not his   use ninjas yeah my wrestling not  his but um yeah do follow him right   do follow him right now if you don't and  he has a youtube and he does stream as well   so i appreciate you for coming on the stream yeah  [ __ ] i haven't even subscribed you didn't even   see that but i do watch your videos so yeah  he has a youtube and just like me he streams   see look yeah you see i watch it whole [  __ ] yeah that's right so yeah so love it   that's his youtube and that's his twitter he's  one of the most disciplined traders i know   very good risk management and usually  on the right side of the market so   definitely follow him if you  don't but yeah um appreciate it   continue sorry for tying you off no you're good  you're good use my ref link continue my back   is it his real profile pic uh what does that  mean this yeah he's an eighth he's an eight   with discipline all right he has good discipline  as an eight oh i for i haven't updated that one   yet so that's the ape nft that i bought and then  what i have on twitter is kind of like art that   other artists made for me that came from that  original ape which is kind of funny anyway um yeah go ahead i'm listening oh yeah this is  a dope they can make that for you it's like   i gotta pay money no it's pixel dudes he just made  it for me yeah that's though and then that one was   parallax island i think it is so yeah you could  continue i think you were up to the discipline   part right let me go through this well i was going  to talk about the list of things that i write down   all right cool trade so i'm just gonna go through  it and then like if you guys want i can copy and   paste it in the chat or something like that but  so first i got the i got the date just kind of   that one's kind of obvious and very simple  just to know when i'm taking the trades   pair if it's bitcoin ethereum whatever  coin it is direction long short whatever um   position size usd risk entry exit stop loss  a chart of when i enter what kind of setup   it is so if it's like an sr flip um a mondays high  sweep uh four hour demand etc so what the setup is   um the reason for entry so in that section  it's more text i kind of just elaborate um   on the setup um trade manager and i like to  have set up in a separate category so i can like   through calculate strike rates on i do the  same thing you have to do that and then just   elaborate more on the specific reason um and  then the next section is trade management so   like if i take any profit during the trade if i  close some early i'll note that in that section   reason for exit so i think this is really  helpful because a lot of times people exit a   trade just because they want to like get their  profit out or don't want to get stopped out   and you can notice a lot of trends within  your reason for exit um so i think that's   definitely a helpful section um and then sleep is  important sleep is important sleep is important   uh result so i write the like  r result if it's like 1r 2r etc   um a chart of when i exit so i have the entry  chart and the exit chart the game loss in usd   or in bitcoin if i'm trading coin margin versus  uh what do they say coin margin and stable mark   usd margin token margin you're talking about  the inverse versus the usdt right yeah oh   yeah something about that since you mentioned  that so here's what happened on this squeeze   alpha that he just mentioned so i'm sorry to cut  you off but what happened here right in this area   so people were short on the coin margin  contract which is the usdt pair so   they got out of bitcoin and they went into the  usdt pair so the difference when you short that   and when you short the inverse is that  when you're shorting the inverse contract   you're holding bitcoin so when you're short as  bitcoin is going up your usd value is going up   all right that's something to think about because  you're holding bitcoin but when you're short   usdt which is why this squeeze was very violent  you have no collateral that you're gaining on the   upside you know so as price is going up you're  not gaining anything because you're short cash   versus being short the swap and bitcoin when  the price is going up you're losing bitcoin   but you're gaining usd so it makes  your liquidation much harder to hit   than if you were shorting the usdt and i know  that's going to go over a lot of people's head   but make sure you replay and understand that  because you can short versus usdt and you   could short versus the swap all right sorry  but continue you're good you're good um so   then i have a emotion section and the  emotions that i felt during the trade   um and then this section called demon finder which  is was something i learned from trader dante i   think it's or dante i forget how he i think it's  just dante yeah um it was from one of his videos   from like 2017 or something like that um and the  demon finder is basically like a mistake that you   made in your trade whether it was closing too  early closing too late stop-loss too tight etc   um and then that's a good way to categorize like  things that went wrong got too greedy whatever and   then when you're like looking through um what you  wrote down in that section if there was something   then it categorizes well and you can see like  oh my gosh i've gotten greedy on five of my   last eight trades um or whatever and then a notes  section and a follow-up section so usually like a   couple or i don't know a couple days later maybe  depending on the time frame of the trade i'll do   a follow-up see like all right i'll pull up the  exit chart i'll look at my chart and be like   was it the right decision to exit there if yes  write it down if not what could i have done better   so that's pretty much it so that's i just i  just pasted the whole thing oh i was i was i   was typing it as you were saying oh there you go  so yeah so that right there um so doing a journal   is what will separate a trader from an average  trader from someone that is above average because   even myself i talked about it before i wasn't  really profitable until i started journaling   and until i started being disciplined with the  risk management because you might not think   when when you're doing a journal you won't like it  won't help you it does help you even if you're a   bad trader if you're recording every trade and  you take a picture of the chart when you enter   and take note of everything he said and even  add on to it you will see patterns and you   will see like percentages of your win rate  and what trades you're losing so you could   cut them out so you basically optimize it it's  just like with marketing if you're running ads   you you run a lot of ads and then once you get  back that data you can optimize to see which ads   are the best it's the same way with your journal  you can optimize your journal to give you you know   the best opportunity and you can learn a lot  from your journal so if you're not profitable   right now start with a journal and start with  risk management one two percent and you'll see the   the um the progress you make because here's the  thing cause right people think they come in crypto   and they wanna be they want to lambo they want 100  and sure there's stories of that but nobody ever   really made it like that because eventually  you get wrecked because you you can never   absolutely never be 100 correct in your  directional bias because the market is very random   so if you're gonna yolo every trade you will get  wrecked at some point especially with bitcoin   because you can even see people were  yolo shorting this [ __ ] look at that   26 percent if you're on three or four times  leverage you're done

2021-08-05 00:40

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