КОГДА ЛОПНУТ ПУЗЫРИ?Нефть,золото,рынки невижимости,доллар,рубль,золото,Virgin, металлы, ВСМПО,РУСАЛ

friends welcome evening review let's take a look at the current market situation what news has happened and what movements can be expected so but today we are pleased we can say the united states sales in the secondary market, despite the fact that they are growing compared to the predicted, they are falling compared to the previous then there is a trend here, see what kind of subtlety it is that sales of the primary sale of houses when they conclude a construction contract is really the movement of the economy forward and upward, because in order to build a house where the main cost of everything is the cost of labor cost of services, this accordingly means creating new capital in its pure form, then as for secondary housing, here in most cases there is profit fixation by investors; at least at the current time , the data released on the one hand is higher than the forecast, that is, there is a certain collision, it turns out that the real estate market moves more dynamically than before it was supposed, but on the other hand, the whole trend that here is going to decline, that is, there is essentially a damping of activity, but this is a damping of activity, it may be due to the fact that investors are in no hurry to fix profits and once sell real estate, well, such terrible headlines on Russian sites have finished badly when the American economy collapses, but in fact, there is not a very successful translation of the article, everyone is so friends, but in fact there is such an interesting topic that concerns the real estate market in Canada, the fact is that it really is a berserk. have these base substrate is not related to two factors first factor is that provided accommodation for 1 residents in Canada is compared to and my states is quite low and there is a very large flow of immigrants that is this country that it creates all the conditions for so that people move and live in this country, respectively, this approach causes a deficit and against the background of this de the bubble begins to inflate here there is one such moment which is connected with the fact that if the migration flow to Canada grows, who really will this bubble, well, if not forever, then it will last for very long many years, in fact, in terms of the value of real estate, Canada will probably even give a head start to the United states because, for example, there is such a concept the American dream of achieving success in life, so jokingly ironic they say there is such a thing the Chinese dream is to come to Vancouver to take a mortgage to work for several years for hire, pay the mortgage and wait for the value of the house to grow three to four times it to sell to leave with millions of dollars back to China here is such a Chinese dream and, accordingly, such a market will grow more captively, and I think in the near future, in the next 12 3 years, the Canadian government will probably have to take some restrictive measures on investment property because it is maybe if this price race continues at o can worsen the situation in the economy and, accordingly, reduce the real disposable income, but at the moment everything is growing and the end of the region is not in sight, and the fact that you became oil prices played a significant role here, this is that the demand for gasoline is growing in America, but Canada she already extracts oil for the United States, so such an interesting topic is being discussed with whether you believe in their capitalism and whether you have to work on weekends, well, in fact, I think that everyone here has to make a decision for himself someone requires full immersion in business and then really this person should devote a lot of time to work, we are people who successfully cope in a few hours and, accordingly, can then spend time as they please, so here it seems to me that this question does not have an unambiguous answer here everyone makes a decision independently and only needs a place keep in mind that if for a person what he does in business at work is a favorite thing, well, how would by itself will work around the clock and do it on the other hand, if for a person this is not a favorite thing and he is forced to do this around the clock, then this will inevitably undermine him and physical and spiritual or psychological forces, so well, here's a discussion about the fact that the sale of houses is already connected states not in canada, their decline, which has been outlined, but a downward trend, it may be a horror horror that will lead to a collapse in prices, in fact, that's how I see this situation as a decrease in sales of secondary housing in the United States, it is not so critical, if sales of primary housing start to fall then it really will be a horror horror, so well, and so the investment company black stone buys the company itself as a home bank oriental, that is, this is a portfolio of houses that are located in the suburbs and, accordingly, there is a clear understanding and belief that in any case, this country property will be bought bring real income in the form of rent annuity and nothing with it she studies nowhere she will not run away, but indeed in the current situation of real estate investment, it remains quite promising, but there is such a moment all crises they follow a similar scenario, that is, when assets should depreciate and, accordingly, someone should lose this crisis will not be an exception and assets will begin to depreciate the problem is that it takes some time to exit real estate , unlike tomato stocks of futures, and even gold that can be sold instantly selling real estate is not an instant process if it starts to happen in a cascade and panic, then well, no matter how you can do anything with real estate so here's another moment that what happened last week most likely considers all the same as some kind of shake-up, but not a reversal of the trend for a collapse and market correction, here it is necessary to clearly understand that in fact the American stock market is essentially pension savings and welfare of many Americans and, accordingly, the EU whether there will be a collapse or fall of the stock market, this will cause massive discontent among people and therefore I think that as far as the value of American stocks is concerned, they will be kept until the last so friends, let's consider perhaps we will start with wix a wix today is moving very well ours is just super here is a return here to this zone which is below 18 5 to calmly breathe the market to gain strength and try to inflate bubbles to new heights the fact that this movement has not been developed is a very positive moment it is very similar to the fact that there really was a blow someone let off steam margin if or and everything and everything returned to square one here, here the moment is really improving, it is very difficult because any measures that the FRS will take by the American government that will lead to the blowing of the American stock market, it will cause very great dissatisfaction among Americans, including ordinary people who these shares are in bags and chests and the question is how these Americans will We have already seen that there will be an uprising of the Texas fishmongers, how many my who, as a result of the drawdown of the American stock market, will come out to defend their rights, this may well be because the United States is such a country, everything is built on the initiative of the movement of people and therefore I think here only there will be some very sharp rollback of the type of March 2020 it will not be right now it will be very u or even in winter now I think it keeps because the summer heat it relaxes the brain and no one wants to fall not take off everyone wants to just hang out in some By the way, consolidation and shares, by the way , if by the way you look at the statistics on August 22, as a rule, almost at all times everything went quite quietly and calmly, even when some noise arose, they somehow quickly sharpened and postponed the solution of problems until the end of the third quarter, in fact, according to the movement Vicks we see such dynamics so friends further dollar index dollar index kova ren and fall to this strong level, he does not want to fall, he does not want in any way, but he also does not really want to grow, here it is necessary to clearly understand that one thing is the movement of capital and another thing is the country's competitiveness, does the United States need a strong dollar for the country's competitiveness but they do not need a supply dollar because everyone will get rid of it, and therefore such surges are quite within the framework of the concept of keeping the dollar a little hungry, but on the other hand, let us not fall completely because the exit from dollar assets will simply begin, but if the other side of the coin, well , the exit from dollar assets will start well if the FRS floods everything to the gulf and floods with money, is it so scary, but probably it is not so scary, but if a combination of circumstances arises in March 2020, it may turn out to be even worse than in March 2020, because all generals are preparing for the past warrior what was already a scenario mov fogo it will be completely different n e such as the previous one about him there will be many interesting moments so friends but real hell is going on in the crypt and I just pour godless bitcoins ethereum but I must draw your attention to this magic level 28 428 500 this is a weekly timeframe bitcoin it was just touched from it chick jumped so but if you go to Ganev com here it is generally wonderful here the strongest reversal information that should just be carried away to 56 in the near future, in fact, as for the crypt, here you can cite different things that China will have restrictions that are associated with the fact that in fact all transfers from fiat to crypt are banned and back, but on the other hand, growth does not happen endlessly here, in any system, you always grow and then a rollback wave can not be avoided.Cryptocurrency is no exception here, look, as far as cryptocurrency is concerned, it grows for two reasons, the first fundamental is that there is interest in it which is new technologies and the second is that there is money that goes there it is necessary to park so that they do not say that there is an end to bitcoin there is shnyaga there are cut candy wrappers look in fact, also cryptocurrencies, it solves a very important problem in addition to the fact that there are big powerful rich and respected people here in such movements they earn a lot of money there is still and another aspect which is related to the fact that these movements do not allow burning the excess money supply, but even if we are considering bitcoin, this is a weekly timeframe, then, accordingly, we have a situation when we ran into a very strong support, if this support is broken through and when it is broken of this support, a trade or growth of volumes will begin, then undoubtedly bitcoin can fly away to the area of ​​its long-standing values, that is, at the level of 10,000 names, if this level is not broken, then all these rollbacks and in the very near future they will redeem new news that China has changed its mind or that, for example, the United States is introducing as an alternative means of payment va bitcoin and launch it well, at least here in the event of a breakdown of 39, he has a goal that will go all the way friends, but if you switch to the hourly timeframe, of course, on the hourly timeframe, there is such a straightforward rebound, but there is no such level, but this level is now at the daily considering a slightly different 28 600, it is for bitcoin and the key, respectively, if this level does not break through in the near future, then bitcoin has chances to start moving up and what I wanted to pay attention to this current rebound that occurred on the hourly timeframe is of course the origin of the movement, but those transactions which now, while they were happening, it does not yet allow us to say unambiguously that he turned around and flew up, but this level of this armor plate is what he will not break through if he breaks it, what kind of guests will not be discussed in the near future so friends further cis this daily timeframe, but everything is fine here, what happened here is a direct way to ensure that rewrite the maximum that was recently 4270, respectively, this does not happen if there is a corrective rollback with a breakout of 4150, all other movements are here tomorrow and next week will be bought out and push to a new high just such a horn to draw another one to draw so friends further gold gold is of course depressed, but it's okay here does not have it locked here in the strongest range for gold and in fact here once stabilized Fed situation by position and will consolidation in 1782 and beyond, we can see very rapidly and upward at the moment that's what comes to gold in gold is quite clear trend that in the near future, it should lead to a movement to 1,794 thousand 995 right here, to this value to this range, well, respectively, the scenario cancellation in the event that a downward movement occurs and a breakdown of 1760 of this minimum value occurs, but at the moment all factors indicate that gold is the most a likely scenario is a rebound first at least here ideally, moving somewhere here at 1820, even more precisely in 1814 in the fall, the level at which she will tend to go so friends further oil is not that oil and does not interfere because something that once fell a lot then should take off strongly at the current moment everything is fine here at us sideways lower level 74 2 which if we do not break through then there will only be upwards upwards the target is a little under-hit seventy-five and six, but judging by what passions-muzzles are going on here, I think seventy-five and six will just be broken to take off and again here I draw your attention to this level 74 and 2 here it is broken through for brent oil and if it starts to trade there, but it is very likely to re-test 72, but if 72 is broken, then it is most likely that all this all this charm it will be words but on the current moment everything indicates that he will sell his father so friends but look me all the time they ask about the shares of the virgin galactic company there is one here a very delicate moment for me, the fact is that I really respect and appreciate Richard Branson, which its founders consider Eugenia in business, respectively, I cannot be impartial when I consider the shares of this company, which is why I always tried not to consider it, I can say so Richard Branson he is a genius in business and of course he is what he does in almost everything he breathes in enormous energy and this all leads to growth and upward movement on the other hand, I must note that for those of course it is very risky and even adventurous, I would even say so, however, for stocks this company in the very near future is likely to develop an upward movement and here, of course, there is every chance to move here at 56 55 to this value, here you need to understand two things that when you buy such companies as the budget of galaxies or tesla, you either have to, from my point of view in my opinion buy forget because they are very risky and on the other hand they are based on faith on faith in the development of this the type of technology and the people who stand behind them what will they do to what heights they will ascend, or you need to constantly monitor and press the buttons because these actions very quickly and abruptly go even here, if you look at what movements were there, one continuous horror horror, but at the moment, if there is no force majeure, we have formed a movement here, the target of this movement from 556 here, taking into account the specifics of the shares of this company, with a high degree of probability, the support level may not work, for example 3029, here it can just break through the skill and it in general there may be some news for 10 dollars, I don't know that there richard branson sneezed wrong and everything will fly to hell, but on the other hand, of course, it is necessary to admit that what this company does is, in general, it is already relative, but if not the nearest mid-term future and, accordingly, those companies that are the first to enter the market, they will have very strong competitive advantages and therefore, in long-term long-term investments in the shares of this company, despite its riskiness, it can be very, very attractive so friends still such a moment switching a little to copper daily timeframe, for copper it is very likely that we have formed a reversal here and a rebound awaits us in the near future whose target of movement will be 10200, according to the criteria that this rebound does not occur, this is a collection refusal by breaking through 8850 here, but there are a lot of factors indicating that this rebound may well be realized well, at least here, here on 9800, and ideally somewhere here, respectively идея не срабатывает если пробой вот этого значения возникает китай начал активно бороться с надуванием пузыря на металлы но что-то мне подсказывает что тут уже то что касается меди здесь наверное лимит этой борьбы точнее возможности вести он несколько считался так друзья дальше меня вот укоряет по поводу того что черной металлургии я совсем не рассматривает посмотрите дава йте возьмем с вами северсталь месячный таймфрейм соответственно здесь у нас по сути на месячном таймфрейме реализован разворот и цель движение у этого разворота она находится вот здесь вот в районе 1000 725 либо 1225 либо сюда в район 1400 слом вот этого нисходящего движение которое здесь развивается и которые судя по всему будет реализовано потому что все-таки стали это не медь с ней проще гораздо здесь отскок наверх пробой закрепления 1702 1700 здесь выступает нет неким сильным знаковым уровнем пробитие взятия которого будет указывать на то что вот этот весь нисходящий тренд который пошел с конца апреля начале мая он сломан и нас ждет отскок и соответственно движение к новым хайям но я все-таки сейчас бы не делал на эту ставку потому что здесь очень похоже ситуация что произошла раздача и надо еще четко понимать такой момент если например сравнивать цепную черную металлургию то черная металлургия она использует руду железно железо это четыре с половиной процента земной коры железная руда есть везде по сути практически в любом месте можно так или иначе найти какое-то количество железной руды и ее успешно добывать перерабатывать и выплавлять ставь конечно предпочитает использовать какие-то крупные залежи и место рождения для того чтобы минимизировать издержки которые связаны с добычей какой-то предварительной обработкой подготовкой руды но в целом проблем с добычей железо и выплавке стали нет никакой вообще вот с миди все не так миди мало на уровне десятых процентов от массы земной коры и поэтому цветные металлы которых очень немного с ними реально могут возникать проблемы и поэтому по ним и пузыри проще надувать эти пузыри не смотря не на что потом дольше и сложнее нравится особенно это касается медь медь серебро так друзья вот еще вопрос по иску ависма там очень интересные сделки происходит который свидетельствует о том что на самом деле ту компанию могут потянуть наверх и еще выше вот здесь как бы ситуация она по поводу титана то есть эта компания это мировой мон ополист который производит 50 процентов даже поможет больше титан во всем мире с титаном ситуация несколько сложная и менее однозначная чем случае меди и железа сравнение потому что титана на самом деле тоже очень много земной карьере это минерал рутил так называемой оксид титана титановые белила и во многом конечно несколько россии вот но полпроцента земной коры и тащи много для сравнения меди и никеля на уровне сотых процентов вот соответственно то есть это металл которую его принципе можно его хоть завались по идее если разрабатывать месторождения вот но проблема заключается в том что его добыча она очень затратная очень энергозатратно дело в том что все титаны это одно из самых устойчивых в мире на планете и в космосе веществ и для того чтобы из него получить это нужно в общем то приложить очень много энергии для того чтобы эту трансформацию реализовать вот и поэтому титан несмотря на то что он достаточно распространенной lime ни крути он особого распространение не получил его слож но выплавить надо очень много энергетических ресурсов для этого затратить потом не очень экологично его производства и с ним потом очень сложно работать то чего как стали просто не пробку ешь или как медь то есть нам требуется специальная среда желательно чтобы инертные газы были аргон и так далее вот но сейчас поскольку судя по всему будет активизации того что связано самолета и ракетостроением у ракеты я надеюсь хороших ракет который летает в космос а некоторые рожала карак грозят всех и поэтому соответственно мы видим вот такие вот движения в компании который мировой лидер по производству титанов так мы вот недельный таймфрейм здесь как раз вот уже что называется крышечка она пробивается крышечка если продевается вот это закрепление происходит то следующая цель движение скорее всего будет 31000 критерии того что это движение не пошло это пробой 26000 26000 если проламывает то отсюда открывается портал движению которая цель будет 22 тысяч это недельный график так друзья но и давайте еще тогда уже как тройки семерка туз так еще и русал возьмем поскольку алюминии то в общем то тоже часть с одной стороны новой зеленой энергетики с другой стороны он крайне необходимый то основной компонент для различных конструктива самолетов конечно в ответственных местах его не ставят то есть там ставит либо титан либо какие-то специализированные стали с добавкой не обе но тем не менее он играет важнейшую роль вид чтобы из него выплавлять делать конструктивы как самолетов так и вообще так ну вот след от того года русал сделал максимум и соответственно сейчас здесь возникает разворотная информация которая может реализоваться в случае пробития уровня 5350 два с половиной этого диапазона так переходя к недельки здесь начался разворот цель этого разворота вот эта волшебная зеленая линия 4105 но для того чтобы этот разворот состоялся нужно пробить я опять же вот этого уровня который находится 50 здесь немножко другой уровень будет отличаться от того что было на месячном графике здесь он находится даже чуть ниже что это кстати странно при переходе к меньшему таймфрейму в районе 49 и 849 и 5 вот здесь вот в этом диапазоне так ну и подняв очки подняв очки здесь все отлично у нас прекрасная консолидация и на этой неделе цель движения парусова переписать вот этот максимум 5872 но по-крайней мере его по 1000 уделить переписать и улететь космосе так друзья дали рубль-доллар ей эту муру ну сегодня достаточно все благоприятно складывается и поэтому вот это движение вверх развитие не получилось и мы вернулись вот эту консолидацию которая находится в диапазоне 72 и 873 и один здесь на текущий момент вот это движение на укрепление рубля которое начало необычайно энергично развиваться 4 часа на то были определенные причины но если рассматривать с точки зрения техники ту мы просто под истины вот этот диапазон и выше пробитие не состоялась здесь была раздача вот здесь и отсюда пошло снижение на фоне достаточно благоприятной ситуации и все вот у нас получается сейчас цель движения эт о 72 88 вот это значение она если не пробивается то здесь отсюда прямо сейчас вечером будет отбой и движение к верхней границе вот сюда вот 7314 если здесь возникает пробой то у нас следующая цель движения находится под вот этим сильным уровнем вот здесь вот на 72 74 так друзья но в общем то все основные инструменты я постарался ответить на те вопросы которые задавали не все конечно я успела рассмотреть но мне кажется лучше один какой-то инструмент или два детально обсудить пони посмотреть какие тенденции и тем более как бы вечером уже предрасполагает потому что бы спокойно что-то сделать доделать потому что уже скоро пора спокойной ночи всего наилучшего дальше счастлива

2021-06-23 17:25

Other news