Karakteristik Pasangan XAUUSD/GOLD || The Characteristic of XAUUSD/GOLD
From the top and the bottom If the longest is the tail, use the tail. If it's only body without tail, use the body. *Opening Music* Good afternoon I want to explain about XAU material This is the most important thing part. I hope you can understand the character Today, I'll discuss about Gold character. So that you'll be more careful later and you'll be ready in facing the Gold movement How's the Gold character? What I mean isn't the physic. But the character of the movement of XAU/USD The first thing that must be understood is Gold has bigger Range. We must really be careful in doing transaction Even when the market is friendly or reverse Range means the daily movement capability. Every pair has each Range
Gold range is bigger than others For example, the daily range in EUR/USD, it's around 600 - 1.200 Pips In GBP/USD, it's around 800 - 1.600 Pips in normal condition If there is high-impact News, it can reaches 3.000 Pips Meanwhile in XAU/USD, it's around 1.600 - 3.000 Pips in normal condition
Because we focus on XAU, we'll discuss more about XAU If there is high-impact News, in XAU, it could be around 3.000 - 6.000 Pips In the extreme condition (conditional), it can reach up to 13.000 Pips maximum. What can we do if we understand the range? When we understand the range, at least we know the limitation if we want to order When the market Trend rises strong (green), doesn't mean we can always order Buy there There is another limitation, it's range. The movement capability Range is the movement capability in a period If I give you an analogy, maybe we use Tanah Abang market In a market, there are many kinds of Sellers. Fabric seller, electro seller, etc.
In 1 daily cycle, the happened transaction is 20 trillion The average of happened transaction is around it. It's small possibility when the normal cycle is 20 trillion, suddenly it becomes 100 trillion for weekdays There is possibility but it's so small Why? Because each seller has their own capability in selling their product every Seller has their regular customers It means that it has market share there There is Meatball seller there. His daily range is around 20 million Maybe he made the meatball around 20kg per day If he raises it to 40kg, all of the meatball won't be sold So, there is maximum limit The calculation of each seller maximum limit is 20 trillion It's also same like the transaction in the currency pair How we can count it? Because only them the big player Meanwhile the impact for small player is very low Big player has big impact for the market So, the average movement is like that Like the Tanah Abang's example. The daily range is 20 trillion It's same like this pair XAU in the normal condition is 1.600 - 3.000 Pips If there is high-impact News, it's around 3.000 - 6.000 Pips
In the extreme condition, it can reaches 13.000 Pips for maximum When it's at the top area, we can take the reversal position if there is trigger that shows up there Here's the example I enter in the EURO first to compare it with XAU The average movement of Euro is around 600 - 1.200 Pips "May I stop you for I while?" Yes, you may "For Euro, must the pair's range is around 600 - 1.200 Pips?"
The pair of Euro is USD EU stands for Euro and USD "Oh.. If the pair of Euro isn't USD, is the pair different?" It's different What I mean by EU is EUR/USD. GU is GBP/USD EU is EUR/USD. GU is GBP/USD "If it's AUB, MJP, is it different?" It has different character. What we discuss is the big pairs and XAU I enter to the example, in the EUR/USD. I use EUR/USD as the comparison We can limit H1 Time Frame as daily or we can use D1 Time Frame. Later, we'll find the range in D1.
We count the range from the top end to the bottom end If the longest is the tail, use the tail. If it's only the body without tail, use the body. "From the top tail to the bottom tail?" Yes, the most end If there is no tail, use the body We try to measure this first. It's ok if you want to measure it starting from the top or the bottom This is 858 Pips. It's in the normal condition, very small. Usually, range close to yesterday range or the closest yesterday range The closest range from yesterday is the day before yesterday, and so on If yesterday's range was around 888 Pips, For today's movement, it will be around 800 Pips So, if it goes down, it's up to Support limitation So, if it reaches to the Support, then trigger show up (lined up buyer), we focus on Buy "I'm sorry, I cut you" "Today is 9 of July" "If it's continuously to go down, it almost reach 900 Pips for the range" "If there is trigger, isn't it for tomorrow?" Yes, if it's in the D1 Time Frame. We don't take position at D1 time frame. D1 is only for knowing the range
Then, we order at H1 Time Frame. For example, yesterday's market. We compare it with the previous We measure the previous range from top to the bottom. Se, we look for the peaks. It's just around 500 Pips Then, if we count the day before yesterday's range, it's around 890 Pips We take the closest. Because the closest is only 500 Pips and it's break there
The 500 Pips is breakout, it means that it's passed. So, we use the longer yesterday The day before yesterday So, we use this one as the reference. It's around 888 Pips Then, I give you the example about this one that we discuss When it reaches that number or close to it, it has chance to reverse Now, it's in 860 Pips, it close to 880 Pips Turns out, it hasn't reached 880 Pips yet, it's rejected "In the H1 time Frame, right?" "We measure it at H1. It means that it's since yesterday... Yesterday was 8th of July, right?" We don't discuss today's market. It hasn't finished yet Because we discuss yesterday's market, the standard is the day before yesterday and the previous. Because yesterday's range was passed (breakout), So, for the standard, we use the longer range than yesterday. The closest is the day before yesterday
We use this one. 890 Pips. When it close to 890 Pips, if there is reversal clue, we follow to reverse But if in the 890 Pips, it rises continuously (no clue to go down), we wait for it first We wait for it until there is clue So, there is caution there For example, this one didn't reach 890 Pips but it's more than 800 Pips This is 860 Pips, but, it was rejected It was rejected started from here Then, next, it was started to be rejected It can be clue that this is the maximum range So, we must be careful. When it's in the top of range, and there is changing color candle, or there is rejection So, it's better to utilize the reversal opportunity Doesn't mean the reversal will be long. It depends on the formed structure there.
If it's above 00.00 WIB, break first. Don't order there. Because it's stable market areas There is no significant fluctuation. But it's just small movement until morning We limit our transaction up to 00.00 WIB. So that we'll feel more calm
You may prove it later So, if it's strong to rise, although it's in the range, then it reverses, It doesn't guarantee that it will go down long Moreover if it's above 00.00 WIB. It will move up and down until morning If the power of buyer show up again, it can moves much stronger later Because there is daily range It's stopped and finish there "In my opinion, the 9th of July market still can't be seen now" "For 9th of July market can't be used as the standard range, right?" You can. If the range is long, and close to yesterday range, Then, there is changing direction Then, it can be used as the standard "So, today is 9th of July. I use the market on 8th of July as the range. I measure the range of it until the end, right?" Yes, from top end to the bottom end For today, we use yesterday's range as the standard "Then, I compare it. The range is around 600 - 1.200 Pips"
"For yesterday's range was 500 Pips" "The 7th of July range" For 7th of July's range was not up to 600 Pips It was 550 Pips "So, it passed, didn't it?" Yes, if it passed and still strong, we don't use it. We use the previous which is the closest from running Then, we look for the longer than this. The previous day before yesterday's range was longer It's not 500 Pips, but 890 Pips "So, we can conclude with the comparison that the range of 8th July was almost reach the top" "We can measure that this is the top point of the Trend, isn't it?" "Because there was signal. This high were rejected twice" Yes, that's correct "Ok. So, this possibility goes down although it's not precisely" Even though it isn't precisely. At least, we'll be careful for what we do Although it rises strong, doesn't mean we must always follow it "this candle hasn't showed up yet. For example, we want to order"
"We'll think that 'will it rise again?'" "These are 2 candles, but it's rejected. We feel suspicious" "But, there is doubt feeling that we can order again" "that's the function of the top range, isn't it?" The function is at least to know... "To be more careful?" Except if it's on Friday and Thursday Why? Please remember that it's the peak of market on Thursday. It's very crowded On Friday, the market wants to close On the peak condition, it's very crowded. The fluctuation can be more than the range of 1 week ago Please remember Thursday and Friday If the market is long on Thursday, it won't be too long on Friday Otherwise, if the market isn't too long on Thursday, it won't be too long on Friday Be careful on Thursday and Friday 2 days. It's not always be long on Thursday and Friday. But sometimes the 3rd SNR can be passed The range can be passed But, we still must understand the the Gold range can be from 1.600 - 3.000 Pips
So, we need to be careful. Although it's 2.800 Pips, it still has chance there Even it can rise up to 4.000 Pips Now, we try to review the previous so that it will be clear to be continued..