Is Now the Right Time to Buy Bitcoin? | Mati Greenspan & Michaël van de Poppe
In times of crisis, all, correlations. Go to one quantitative. Easing. I expect. That to be bullish. For Bitcoin liquidity. Reigned supreme and one day people. Will leave the dollar for, all the commodities or other assets. And that, period, will come in the next years what's. Up YouTube my name is Jackson today I'm joined by CEO, and founder of quantum, economics, Matty Greenspan, and trader, Michael, Van de Pape how's it going today guys yeah. It's. Going ok living, at my parents which I didn't expect to happen again but it's ok. Yeah. It's, different. Times for sure so, yeah on March 23rd, Michael you wrote an article for coin Telegraph, identifying, targets, for bullish and bearish scenarios. You, said as long as 6,800. 260 900, is not broken to the upside there's, more downside, to be expected, how, are the most recent market, movements, playing into your bullish and bearish scenarios. I'm. Not really into, news as mostly, news is already priced into the markets we've seen a huge search on the equity markets yesterday with, the bill passing true that's. Probably already priced in before it actually happened, what. I want to see with the price right now is just and we reclaim, and reclaim a previous, support level which is 68 69 until. We don't do that I expect. Further downside, to come it's just pure technical, levels what, is your take on Michael's analysis, Matty what, key levels are you looking at for bullish and bearish scenarios, that, would say, 6,800. Is. A kilo, a key level that has played out before. But. You always got to watch out for things like false. Breakouts, and things which can happen I would. Say overall, I mean we're looking at, very. Wide range for Bitcoin, something. Between three. Thousand, one hundred and twenty thousand dollars per coin so. You. Know and please employ things like dollar cost averaging. And buy the dip such as I'm doing in, my public. Portfolio. Continuing. To look at the more short-term. Scenarios. Michael, you tweeted, that the, US stock markets are currently, in a relief or dead, cat bounce, during. A massive, massive downtrend. Both. You and Maddie have pointed out how. Bitcoin, has recently been correlated with, equities, markets, do, you also believe Bitcoin, is experiencing. A brief dead cat bounce as, part of a larger, downward, trend I. Guess. It's a little bit difficult for Bitcoin. To stay that it's dead get bounce I still, still believe that Bitcoin, has some sort of accumulation, period, to come in the next few months especially. Given, the uncertainties. On the, equity. Markets you. See it on all the markets you see the equity markets bounce out pretty strong yesterday, you see gold and silver bounce up with tens of percents. But. There's no real shift in momentum at, this point the first panic just occurred about the coronavirus, and there's still much more panic, to come I assume. So. I expect. The Bitcoin, market to just accumulate, while. The. Stock markets continue to fall down in the next month given the economic impact, of the coronavirus, as well do. You share that same view Maddie. Yeah. So in, times of crisis, all, correlations. Go to one. Meaning. And at. The moment. What. We've seen will the initial impact and the shock of the coronavirus. Is that people are moving to cash at an unprecedented, level meaning. That they're selling off every asset that has a value. And. That includes. Gold. And silver, copper. Stocks, of course and. Bitcoin. Now. Especially since Wall. Street and institutional. Players are quite new in the market I mean most, of them joined really, during the early, 2019 rally. They, were kind of like the first money the easy the weak hands in the market and a lot, of them are the first ones to go out when I things started falling. That. Said the correlation, between. Bitcoin. And the stock market, right now is at a record high. It reached, 0.6. Out. Of 1 which. Is it's. Never done that before so at some point that. Correlation has got to come down it. Can't last forever, and we will see a decoupling, what the united, states government announced. Yesterday is, nothing. Short of helicopter, money and universal. Banks a basic income over, time anyways, we'll definitely, see people starting. To hold. On to any kind of assets, that have. By. Nature a limited supply so continuing. With this uh with. This inflation, the Fed was recently, given the green light to print as much, money as needed, to stabilize the economy Maddy. You took the Twitter to call this quantitative. Easing to infinity, Michael, you say long-term, more, dollars being created is bullish, for Bitcoin and commodities.
You, Are both referring to the effects of quantitative, easing how, central banks are purposely, purposefully. Inflating, their economies, to offset, the financial, crisis, why. Is this bullish, for Bitcoin. Michael. Well. What. Just, Mary just said about, helicopter. Money and inflation in the end people. Will seek to people. Search for assets. That remain. Their value, instead in markets, that are pretty inflated. So, what. You want to see at some point is that. Investors. Run out of the dollar given the inflation, or deflation and, start to seek for other assets, which are commodities. Like gold silver, and platinum and a. Bitcoin, the, other scenario is that the crisis just continues to fall down until. 2021. And 2022. And the equity markets bottomed out after. Which the other commodity. Markets and Baedeker start to outperform the equity markets in the first case which we have seen in all 9 -, 2011. With gold so. In, the end quantitative, easing I, expect. That to be bullish. For Bitcoin when, can, we expect. Bitcoin, to kind of fulfill, its its destiny, as you were talking about Mattie what what, are they like exact, circumstances. That you see occurring when, Bitcoin can finally come into the role that was meant. Unfortunately. Past performance, is not an indication of future results but, if we look at the. 2008. Financial crisis. We, know that during 2008. When, the stuff was hitting the fan and. People. Were exiting. Stocks. As fast as they could. Gold, was going down as well and this is very similar to what we're seeing today. Simply. Everybody's, kind of moving to cash as the. Number one. Not. Necessarily, just cash does anything that's liquid liquidity. Reigned, supreme in this in this scenario so, everybody wants something that they can hold on to that's liquid if, you look at that at the aftermath. To. The financial, crisis, was I. Believe, as Michael said 2009. To 2011, at, 2012. That's, when gold really took this took the center stage it was a multi-year, so. And from around, $800. After. The crisis. And. It, shot, up to $2,000. Per, ounce. By. 2011. 2012. It, was in response to quantitative. Easing where people were, afraid, that, quantitative. Easing would, bring inflation in the, end of it in the end it didn't end up happening the quantitative, easing brought inflation however. They've. Been printing. Money pretty much constantly. Ever since, then. And. The. Amounts, that they're talking about now far, surpass, anything, we've ever seen before. Which. Means that basically. Inflation. Is pretty much for bond conclusion. At this point, even. If even if we, haven't seen, it in the past at some point, you. Just you, put. Money. In, more. And more money in people's pockets. The. Number you know the number of work hours are going down, within. The economy the number of goods within the economy are going down. That. All adds up to us to a very clear picture of where we're headed here so. What. You're saying is you kind of you're using gold, as an example for what.
For How Bitcoin could behave in the near future I. Think. That boat yes and I think that gold again, is. Already, showing us incredible, resilience. Since. The beginning of the year, I'm. Not going to say if it went up or down during. The crisis because it's kind of been fluctuating, but it certainly hasn't taken. A hit like the stocks have it's more or less held its value over that time. And. I believe that Bitcoin. Will also be seen as, this. Type of asset, the, first the first thing to happen to Bitcoin was that the weak hands left which they often do, when. The going gets tough in Bitcoin but the, Hodler is remained, and I believe that they are increasing their positions, as we speak. Michael. What's your view on this comparison, with gold do you agree with Maddie's perspective. Yeah. It's I mean Bitcoin. Is actually called, digital gold and it's even, it's. Acting, this in the same way as gold used to be in the best however it's easier to transfer Bitcoin, than gold so, I, expect. Bit going to behave the same as gold, used to be after 2000. Crisis as it also dropped down during the 2000. Combo it dropped, down in the 2008. Credit, crisis, so, I expect, the same to happen to Bitcoin and crypto, as it used to happen to Gold and Commodities so. Either. Way even if there. Has to be a decoupling, people has to have to fly out of the dollar that's, one way the other way is that the equity market is bottomed out out of this recession or, crisis, or whatever it's going to be and I. Start to outperform the years after that's the main two scenarios that I'm watching for Bitcoin as well a draft of the US coronavirus. Stimulus, bill proposed, the creation of digital, wallets, to administer, a universal, basic income for adults earning, under seventy, five thousand, dollars a year although. This provision, was removed in, the most recent, draft members. Of the House and the Senate are fighting, for the implementation of, digital, dollars, Michael. You tweeted that the US announcing. A digital, dollar doesn't, change much a digital. US dollar is still, is still a u.s. dollar why, is Congress. Suddenly, considering, a digital, dollar and what, does this mean for crypto, and why don't you think this, changes anything what. It means for crypto is it raises awareness through, that, it's probably a blockchain. Applications. Built on blockchain so, it's in. The end we will go to to, a digital, future in which just cash, just goes away and everything goes to a digital, platform so. That it is bullish. For crypto and awareness, for crypto and Bitcoin. In. General, however, it's, still a dollar and it's still quite. An infinite quantitative easing so that doesn't change anything, there's. Actually printed more monies but while bitcoin has their whole thing and the, exact opposite, of the, currency. Dollars so I think. In the long term it's bullish for Bitcoin. For. Short term ok, it's. Still acting the same as the equity markets I assume so I. Guess. They need to have one opportunity to do the the. The. Helicopter. Money and this is one way of doing it in the easiest way for the Congress to fulfill the prophet of prophecy what, are your thoughts on this and now on, this proposal Mady. It. Was kind of a off-the-wall. Whacky proposal, wasn't it the. Fact that somebody in the US government is, pushing for it is quite interesting, and we've seen, former. CFTC. Chairman. Giancarlo. He's basically quit his job and he's, lobbying, specifically. Only for, this digital, dollar and I, think that digital dollar would be first. Of all good for the United States because. They'd. Be able to have a much, greater. Level of control over their currency. Obviously. When, you have. Bills. That are floating around you, can't always track them you can't always know where they are and what they're doing so people are holding them and they're safer they're destroyed, you don't really know or maybe people are spending them so, when, you have a digital dollar you have a very good. Level. Of control over the velocity, of money over the creation of money, a very, good oversight, of what's what's happening within your economy, it. Would be good for Bitcoin of course because it advances. The entire idea of. The. Internet of value, where we have something. Where we have dollars. That are native to the internet, that, are floating, around. That. Only increases, awareness and, usage, of digital, currency, which. Is going to be good for Bitcoin because bitcoin is the original. Digital. Currency, and far. Preferred, if. You look at it on paper, as. Far as, you. Know supply, and inflation. And, hard. Money and everything like that that.
Said. I believe that it's. Not really in Congress's, authority, to create. A digital call or I believe that good really goes with the, Federal Reserve and. They. Don't seem to be any rut in in any rush to to. Do this it. Was kind of a sudden thing but do you think this is an opportune. Moment for. The creation of a digital dollar. No. I don't think that they've got they've got bigger, things on the fact that it made it into that proposal, I think that we just talked that up to. Ridiculousness. Of Congress, and. Everybody, trying to push their agenda I, don't think that that was something that there's. Really bipartisan. Support for, otherwise, it would have actually made it into the bill, so. I don't know I think people just have their hands full with this coronavirus. And, maybe. Runs the dust settles, that'll. Be that'll be put on the agenda but for now it's nowhere near it the, the, quantum, economics, website, advises. People not to hold cash in the current economic environment if you're not investing, you're, losing money for. Many the onset, of a financial crisis, can seem a risky, and daunting, time to start investing, especially. If they have a small budget why. Is it important, to be investing, and trading at this point in time even though it looks like we are headed toward a recession, if we're not already in one, so. Simply like, I mentioned before. What, everything, that we've seen so far from this crisis, is the initial, shock and impact. So, imagine. The. Economy, is a car that was. Zooming. Along at 110. Miles an hour and all of a sudden has stopped whether it was in a car crash or. Somebody, slammed on the brakes will leave that part. Of the analogy, but, what's happening now is that the cars has, come to almost, a complete, stop meaning. That they caught the global economy, is not moving, and. The idea, of cash is, going to be something that you, just don't want to hold on to because it will lose its value it's been happening it's, been playing out when I wrote those words before, the corona crisis, but, I believe that that's going to be Farrukh celery and now and. If. You're on an, extremely, small budget, I would say, it. Doesn't really matter all that much if, you're gonna be holding. Cash if you're living paycheck to paycheck. Then. You don't really have much to invest with anyways, I wouldn't say to start trying that's not necessarily, always the the brightest. Move, because. If you need that money for the. There you know this is an old, idea. In trading if you need the money for something else you. Know food education. Clothing. Rent, you, definitely, don't want to be trading, with it that's just a dangerous thing to do but, for anybody with a bit of an extra, or disposable. Income, or, value. That they want to store or, they want to see it grow in the future.
Cash. Has not been a good place for that not. Since the 80s and it won't be anytime soon, what with negative, interest rates and everything like that, you're, gonna want to do everything you can to find, things that are of value and. Going to continue to rise in value. Just. It's cash it's just not not a great place I have to store value from now on Michael. Do you agree with this idea that if you're not investing, you're actually, losing money I. Agree. On some, points right now I mean if, the, first shock on the equity market has just occurred if there's another second, wave coming, in, through which the coronavirus. Would take the, whole year I expect. The market to just drop further down but, people, have to realize, that the, coming years will give you opportunities you've, been waiting for for the whole decade so, if you want to start investing, and trading then this is probably the period, that you want to make some choices that. Doesn't mean that you have to use all your money for it or that you have to invest. Everything, at one point dollar, cost averaging, is a pretty decent. Way of investing. In this period as it's, just giving you opportunities, you've been waiting for it's the same as people who joined crypto in 2070. They wanted, to buy a 3k, but, then they didn't have any money to buy Bitcoin. At 3k because they bought at 18k, so. If. You, are patient in this market, and just dollar-cost average, you get opportunities you've, been waiting for for years and I guess that's that's. Tremendous, and one. Day the people. Will leave the dollar for, all the commodities or other assets. And that, period, will come in the next year so yeah I agree on some point but short-term it's a little bit a little. Bit to follow Thailand uncertain, to invest. I assume what. Is one suggestion, you would give our viewers to protect, themselves against, the current downward trends, in the market. At. This point I'll just stay in cash and be really, patient I mean. Trump. Just announced that they want to open up the country, at Easter, while other, countries, are in lockdown for three months so, that's an interesting approach I assume. And. We. Have to see how that just works out I mean if the old country, of the state still still has to get the first shock wave of coronavirus. Then this whole impact will just be bigger so remaining. Patient, is not a bad approach at this point after. That I'll be most, bullish on crypto, and commodities, in general not, particularly, on equities, I'm. Gonna I'm gonna disagree. With you on that one. The. Fed just announced, that they're willing to buy the entire market. There's. Enough cash in the financial, system and there, is an infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve we will do whatever, we need to do to make sure that there's enough cash in the banking system.
Like. Quite, honestly QE infinity, is okay if, you're so willing to sell it we're willing to buy it and. This. Came at a time when there. Were literally no buyers in the market for many assets, mortgage-backed, securities. It was just a sea of selling. I've been getting alerts flashing, for several days that there just simply are no buyers out there for, them and the Fed also announced that they're going into corporate bonds which are not exactly stocks but basically they're going to be holding up the value of companies, directly now, as well. With. That. Basically. And you, know along with the fiscal stimulus, package, of two trillion dollars I believe. That, they very well could have put a. Limit. On the, downside, of this market, and anybody. Who's not investing, right now and sitting on on cash on the sidelines, is probably to be missing out on the massive, upswing great. Thank. You Maddie and Michael for joining me today it was a pleasure having you on the show thanks, a lot for having us thanks. A lot, thank. You everyone for watching my name is Jackson that was Matty Greenspan, and Michael Van de Pape and guys, if you liked the video hit, that like button and subscribe and. Don't forget to hobble coin. Telegraph like, subscribe, and hot off. You.