Palantir: $111M CONTRACT & Inflation LOWER!!
good evening guys felix here welcome to this live stream it's a good day for palantir today it's also a good day for tech stocks and we're gonna dig into that as always guys feel free to ask all the questions you want i'll do my utmost to answer them all this is very much a q a this is not just a a man with a microphone who can talk at you so don't be shy guys as always though this is not financial advice this is just for entertainment only please bear that in mind and also bear in mind to destroy that like button and i truly appreciate that as well so um valentino of course fantastic news of the contract we're going to go through that in just a second before we do we should have a quick look at some inflation numbers that came in today we have the um uh michigan inflation numbers uh out the the expectations rather out and they are lower than was forecast and that is therefore a good thing because that's what you want because growth stocks get hammered when inflation goes up and at this point uh future markets looking rather positive and we will of course also look at live here the market has just just opened two minutes ago so let's have a look at what all of our lovely growth stocks are doing here patent here at 2.7 which is just fantastic and um blackberry app okay that's that's quite substantial after looking into why that is a lee auto app most of the tech stocks are looking rather green here what's suffering uh the banks a little bit that makes sense um expand i'm not quite sure why coin did bitcoin take another tumble before while i haven't looked yeah back down to 36 000 so that would explain coin um otherwise i think we're going to see a fairly good day today fridays can sometimes be erratic but the inflation expectations i think will be somewhat lowered here which is which is positive now we are getting today also the president's 2022 budget so that's going to be a major item there and that should be a major boost for evs especially for us evs but also really the whole sector so i think that is quite good um personal spending was on target personal income month or month it's down but it is down less than was expected so that's also good so overall i think these numbers are are fairly um we can live with these i would say i think these are these are pretty decent numbers uh so guys let's let's talk about palinder here then where is the lovely announcement here it was awarded a 111 million us dollar contract to provide mission command platform for the u.s special operations forces and this is now a pretty long relationship that they've had with the u.s special ops so we were all expecting a contract renewal here but it is interesting to see what the details are and then we look a little bit at the history of these contracts as well um so the contract is valued at 111 million inclusive of options with 52.5 million executed upon award the trailer contract includes a base year and one option year um for some reason it seems guys there is no chat on let me just see if i can do something about that because there should be a live chat on enabler okay let me just disable it and then i'll enable it again because i can't see it guys um there we go okay i think i think that might work now so feel free guys to um uh try to write something here i i can't see it so far which is really rather odd let me see uh let me write something see if you guys can see that um so they're using basically palantius platform has been used by usocom in real-time mission operations to interoperate with other components of the global situational awareness architecture that's a lot of long words isn't it since 2016 and palantir software is designed to aggregate disparate and siloed data sources to enable the best possible data driven decision making making palantir uniquely uh suited for um well high impact decision making and you have those in in wars so when special ops are risking their lives with no in no fail scenarios they deserve technology that works our partnerships was one of the first with the us military and we're honored to keep providing technology that gets the job done while we partner on the future of what is possible says palantir here and um so it's used for the full cycle of today's continuous operations from planning to reviews approvals through the bottle battle tracking of the actual missing mission execution here and they've been doing that now for a decade and that's pretty interesting that that continues it just goes to show you the trust and this here is um are all the contracts that you so com the u.s special operations command
have issued palantiy over the last couple years they're in no particular order but you can see here 2018 it was 51 million and then these little sort of top-ups in 2020 we got 35 million 10 million again in 2020 um 52 million again in 2018 uh and so on some of these are zero i guess these are maybe options being um being um triggered 2017 it was 23 million again 2020 another 14 million and then 219 000 in 2020 so these are some smaller numbers here 20 million 2016 so this is a pretty sizable number judging by the history of this this looks to me like it is the biggest one uh yet slightly bigger than the 51 million well substantially bigger than we got in 2018 so this matters and this is super important because this is the backbone of palantir the total addressable market of the us defense contracts that they might get are something like i read an article on this earlier which i thought was rather accurate um i think it's 126 billion if i'm not mistaken sorry it's 26 billion and that's the current addressable market here so if they get a quarter of that 26 times 0.25 is 6.5 billion and what do we have in our discounted cash flow models what is the prediction well we have about 910 billion by 2030 and they're telling us by 2025 they expect 4 billion in revenue so with just with these government sort of defense contracts they can quite easily get there and i i expect there will guys if you are writing in the chat i truly appreciate it for some reason i i cannot see it uh for that i apologize actually let me see if i look on my phone maybe i can see it there seems to be some little youtube uh bug in here but if i watch myself then maybe i can maybe i can see your comments because it is always a lot more fun when i can answer your questions okay brilliant guys i can see them on here i just have to occasionally look down here so um good morning all you guys here roti boy i see a lot of familiar faces muscle doc um which is fantastic to see you uh robert long time no see great to have you on the chat bob uh and everybody else so i can't see your chat now i'll just uh cheat on my phone every once in a while so i'll lean that against my my mug here so i can see you guys so do feel free to write questions and comments i will see them i'll just sort of peek down and i'm watching myself i should stream myself watching myself shouldn't i would that be more interesting so actually this you the u.s defense contractors are saying are massive for palantir it will get them to about 60 of their revenue targets easily for the current valuations and these valuations give us a fair price target of 60 dollars so it would actually require very little growth of foundry and palanti have said that they expect foundry in the long run to be the biggest part of their business by far why because there are a lot more companies out there than there are governments in the long run right so that addressable market is much much bigger yes there is some competition it's microsoft whoever else but palantir will still pick up a sizable market and they only have to pick up a tiny percentage amount of this whole ai data business in the us to get and smash their expectations here um uh gregory thank you very much uh you might be very kind here uh parents here seems to be at a major resistance at 23.75 so let's have a look at the chart here guys so you see this red line i put in here that sort of trends downwards that was connecting the previous highs um and that was sort of i would say yesterday if we break through that then we leap out of it because we sort of struggled we struggled also to get through this blue line here which is the 50-day moving average and now we've gone through that we've smashed that we've smashed our kind of downward trajectory here and what are we doing now well we have to basically go back up to our last peak which is that faint blue line here at sort of 24 25. so let me put a little number in here uh this one here 24 27 uh you know center two doesn't really matter so that's what we need to smash through and we've really done that today so the market has actually paid attention because this contract is sizable enough 111 million is you know more than 10 percent of of turnover right what was the turnover last year at one point earlier night so it's been pretty much exactly 10 of revenue so this stuff really matters and the fact that these are sticky contracts that they get bigger and bigger over time really matters and that's why palantir is at five and a half percent today so the sell-off was perhaps overdone uh but for me actually i like to buy things on the way up momentum is really turning around we had a beautiful growth day yesterday we saw down here let me point it with an arrow can you see down there that great big green bar that is a big juicy by day that means volumes up the price stocks are going up that means there is momentum in that rally and it's the opposite of what we've been seeing this last 10 days or so so this is good news now the real question is can we break out about 2427 because that would take us above the previous peak and that's going to act as a serious resistance level here and um then you know we have a chance to go back into the 25 dollar range but at the moment that's really what we're testing here um fernando good morning to you too uh eric great to have you on the chat here guys if you think why why is he staring at his phone it's because the the the your youtube chat it doesn't seem to be working on the screen so i'm looking at that do you guys feel free to shout out questions whether it's palantir related or not you're very very welcome to do that let's have a quick look again on what the market is doing here ehang really flying there if they have literally flying they've announced a long distance drone i might do a video on that guys if you're interested that's quite an interesting move so they don't no longer just have the eh 216 which is that sort of two people passenger drone but they now have a a longer haul model which is good so palanti here really near the top of the of the market uh flying here lee also also up x-pang up new upper percent and a half uh square paypal i think the market's coming around that it's going to be a green day here i don't know why facebook's down half a percent perhaps that's a little bit of rotation putting people pulling money out of the safer tech into the more exciting tech now i wouldn't recommend selling facebook to be honest with you i think it's a great company but i think that's a little bit what's happening here uh bitcoin at 37 000 as we speak still not quite getting through the 40 000 i wish it would because it would really make my portfolio look a little bit better rudy boy says yes please do a video on e-hang okay thanks guys and make a note on that i used to cover ehan quite a bit and then the sort of power went out of it because of that uh short hit they had a lot of people lost confidence there wasn't really a lot going on there um have you seen tom nationally this video about skywise foundry in action eric ciao now uh no i have not uh i will ask tom what he's what he's what he's up to on sky wise oh actually i think i might did i watch that is he sort of saying that the valuation of that is is is ludicrously high and palantius is ludicrously low and that pollen tissue will be valued a lot more i i think they uh i think that's maybe what he said but i'll check it out later i like tom ch did you consider blackberry and meme stock no not really and and why because okay it is being picked up by this whole you know wall street bets game stop sort of reddit madness in mania and that isn't really great for for blackberry quite frankly because they are they're kind of a startup in an old company so they're sold off um loads of uh hang on we just got the pmi in here reported that 75 consensus was 68 okay that is not too bad um let's just have a look here uh all the business barometers are looking relatively positive there okay that isn't the biggest news in the world so i think e-hang sorry blackberry forget about them being you know an old phone company i used to have a blackberry absolutely loved it they're getting rid of all of that they've sold off most of those patents and they are becoming a sort of data security company and that's what they're doing now why on earth they are flying up like they are i think that is speculation you don't normally get three days in a row sort of ten five ten percent growth like that that isn't really fundamental so that's the cautiousness i have with this is uh you know what is it actually worth it's a little bit hard to tell at the moment because people are are doing some silly business with blackberry um dab for less good morning uh great to see you on the chat um you also calm tweet from palantir um great okay we'll have a look at twitter see what's what's going on over there um volunteer that's been selected by user.com yes we were just talking about that literally which is of course absolutely fantastic uh that is is very very good news indeed um so yeah we will do a quick recap on like in a second i know you're not a fan of plug do you know why it's up today absolutely no idea but you know just because i'm not a fan doesn't mean i don't follow stuff let's have a quick look at luck see if we can figure out at least if there's anything in the news uh expected notice from nasdaq that was a little while ago because they were failing to file stuff so no i don't really know why plug is up today um i mean they have certainly been beaten rather hard but it is it is it is i think it's a fairly speculative stock i mean anything with that kind of level of volatility then let's just put plug in here so we can get a decent chart but no i honestly don't know and i think that's sometimes the weird thing with these stocks that have these massive price movements without any real news now we had no earnings are about to come out according to this i know they were out 28th today's the 28th maybe the earnings out i haven't seen them yet but maybe maybe that's what it is or people are buying on expectations of good earnings i think i think that probably has something to do with it so it might be less speculative and more real world it provided the accountant was any good and at um million plus renewals gary count says yes absolutely fantastic i agree with you uh we have here 111 million and why do these contracts matter even more than a normal contract because u.s special operations the um you know nuclear weapons stockpile those kind of things are the
most sensitive things that the us government has right there is nothing more risky than sending a bunch of guys into a very dangerous situation you want to make sure that the software you have is the absolute best you have in the country that it works absolutely all the time because if it doesn't you're going to lose some people people are going to die needlessly so the trust you have here i think is is the fundamental basis to the growth we are going to get in u.s government spending expenditure i think volunteer is going to hoover up somewhere between 5 and 10 billion us dollars of revenue per year in in government expenditure yeah i think they're going to get that it's headed for 25 um yes absolutely i i think i think you are you're right there on palantir i think we are heading that way what was our real resistance from the next peak let's zoom in just a little bit here i think it was 24 27 that's actually our previous peak so that's the one we need to crack through and at the moment that is acting as a resistance here can you see that there we touched on it we touched that blue line and then we came back down so that is the resistance exactly as i was saying uh what's going on with inflation okay we've got a bunch of numbers out today which i've got here on the screen so what are the most exciting ones here well we have the michigan consumer sentiment is a little bit better which is good and bad the inflation expectations however are lower and that is important and the five year inflation expectations are also lower than expected and then forecast and inflation is all about expectation if you expect inflation you're going to get inflation right and that's the only thing central banks really do is they try to create an expectation of what they want the market to do it's much less about fundamentals they just do something to make you believe that something that they want to happen is going to happen here so i think these inflation numbers are therefore less than expected 2.7 versus 3.1 percent expected 3.4 percent versus sorry we haven't got these ones out yet these are apologies guys these are not actual numbers ignore what i just said on that here um the um the pce price index is the personal consumption expenditure price index it rose a little bit but it rose a little bit less than expected um personal spending month on month is on target and the income that's actually the number is looking for income is down but not down as much as we thought so it's kind of good for the economy but at the same time i think our price indices are a little bit lower than expected so i don't think we're going to get massive inflation first today we are going to get some numbers out in about nine minutes so we're going to be interesting to see what the michigan expectations are for these guys i thought they were out already they're out in nine minutes the other big macro news today is the president's 2022 budget which is going to be a whopper and it's going to throw lots of money at ev so i think it is going to be good for evs um in okay roger saying in reverse head and shoulder are you talking about palantir where is your head in your shoulder talking about this sort of thing up there are you thinking another one okay sorry i i don't quite see it it might well be there but i don't quite see it are you talking about plug okay eugene welcome to the channel muscle dog is talking about uh nvidia let's pull that up um when our lovely members and patreons talk about uh things guys i of course i i have to prioritize them and muscledoc is a loyal follower here so this is you so you're right it it has been flying up quite substantially in the last 10 days or so um it's running up pre-stock split yes i mean it ran up but it didn't run up so far as high as the previous peak right so that's always what i look for is you know if this is indeed the peak of this this valley then we are trending down a little bit right so we are sort of forming a um let me just move this up a little bit here we are forming a bit of a triangle here there's something like this this sort of situation uh where you know at the moment this is keeping a lid on it this top red line here if you break through that that's when you get a real bounce uh but we are trading substantially above the i think that's the 50-day moving average line and let's make that the 100-day line here for a second see where that would put us yeah also obviously that's a little bit lower um so i i my thought would be on this and that might well well of course change but given that this is trading like this for four days in a row four days slightly lower highs i wouldn't bet on a real rally here coming out of nvidia these price points i would aim to buy this below the 100 day moving average line so below the blue line here if you can get it down here or down there if you want to buy a nvidia that is a much better price point than when we are substantially above it um so that that would be my thought on that um hashtag president uh fair enough that's the way democracy works unfortunately uh there is uh half the time somebody in the office that you don't want um bntx someone's chatting out here i say somebody it is turbo he's saying biontech a beautiful pattern well well well it is it is a lovely pattern it is definitely a sustained uh nice rally here and that is uh well it's it's it's sort of tempting to grow draw a little chart here but channel here you are sort of on this you know this kind of a channel here that continues to well i mean let's do it sort of roughly to sort of go in that direction so very very very much a growth trajectory but there is a small butt here and what's that the butter is volume down here falling off so be careful because when you get beautiful rallies at the top so you know we're starting here where volume really starts to fall off from that line can we get a horizontal line in here there we are so you know all of this growth here right at the same time your volume is going in the opposite direction what does that tell you well one thing i teach you my course guys is a lot of technical analysis because it's important and this is saying to you this is likely near the top of one uh near the peak because your volume continues to fall off so it's important to understand that in this on that note guys check out the course coupon below 39 off and the coupon code is freedom for big fat juicy financial freedom and that expires at the end of sunday that's new york eastern time so get in there before you can and you have a complete no questions asked 100 refund policy from me because people like the product and i trust that it's a great product so i encourage you to check that out i think you can learn quite a lot there of course not just technical analysis but all the fundamentals how to make your discounted cash flow models how to invest in types of inflation they had to put together a good long-term portfolio and much much much more um roger thank you very much um uh cozman is talking about uh tom nash's new video uh talking about a foundry we were started the call here thank you very much kozman saying that foundry according to palantir is going to be the biggest part of their business um and that makes sense because yes they might get say 6 billion u.s dollars of u.s government money and they'll also get more and more government money in europe but of course there are much much more many many more corporations out there and the corporations actually make money out of using foundry find me another piece of software that makes companies money very very very rare and that is really why people like to pay for it because they pay less than they get so they're happy to roll it out and it just takes a little bit more time because they're newer to the sector they've only just 150 sales people but they're telling us the pipeline is two and a half times fuller than it was so i do expect some pretty great things there as well um alexey is saying i bought reached previous peak i bought an 18 dip could you say if a i should sell well it really depends on your perspective if you want to make some short term profits by all means um and i know some volunteer fans are going to shout at me for this because they say you should never say palantir self palate but look guys it depends on everyone's horizon right some people invest because they want the money and the short run and they needed to pay for something in which case taking profits is a good thing there's also nothing dirty about taking profits you could also if you wanted to take out your original investment or half of your original investment and that's pure profit you've got that back now and then you're left with some free palantir stock it really depends on your on your horizon or you wait this thing out like five or ten years and you take your long-term profits but that really depends on your personal financial situation but i do always encourage people to take some profits if they need them or if they cannot tolerate volatility for long periods of time now if you've got lots of money flowing in from three different businesses and you know you don't know what to do with the staff it's just everywhere then you know you want to keep staying in in stocks that you believe are fundamentally going to perform uh well in the long run so i'm going to throw the question a little bit back at you there uh i like say um you know you made you went from 18 to 24 that is 6 over 18 which even i could do in my head that's 35 that's a pretty great return so there's nothing wrong with locking in some of those profits or all of those profits and then starting again or you know waiting for the next tip because there will be a dip there always is no matter what happens in the market there will be a day again within more inflation fears where people will panic and will be irrational and you can make money out of those things look just look at the charter that i've got on the screen right you can make money on trading those things there's nothing wrong with it i know some people just think you should hold on to stocks like some sort of religion um i buy a lot of stocks that i never sell i just keep buying and buying and buying but i'm in a fortunate situation that i don't need to sell them i i'm able to hold those things for 10 years or 20 years or longer and that's my my compounding growth strategy there where my homeless ads are sebastian absolutely we're getting some diamonds hands uh i i appreciate that guys um penalty and my retirement account says roger um i'm a long-term holder says alex say just looking for more dips okay well then you know i think you've kind of answered your question there it really depends on everyone's time horizon as i say some people they day trades some people trade for for the forever horizon um i'm i'm more in that camp there i'm enhanced to the moon as alex say there um sec let's go um and eric you have a very good question though when you sell where do you put the money do you have another investment that is better than this stock and how do you know if it's better well you've done your research you've read the income statements you understand the business you understand the moat you've done a discounted cash flow model and if all of that sounds impossible to you guys um i i teach you that i teach you that in my course uh you can check it out and you can see all of the lessons on here including you know discounted cash flow model templates and everything it isn't difficult actually in fact i actually had it up here earlier because i was showing it to somebody i show you here on screen actually a lecture for my course on the left are data from tesla on the right is the template that i give you and i hold your hand through what data goes where and what assumptions go where and where you can find that data that's accurate for free and really really implore people to do those kind of models because you don't truly understand a stock until you've done a discounted cash flow model on it and it isn't complicated it really isn't people like to make it sound difficult because they want to sell them or they want to sound like an expert i try to take the the fluff and the difficulty out of it um now we should have guys some economic numbers out here uh so michigan five-year inflation expectation numbers were at three percent we were expecting 3.1 so that's slightly lower and the um that's the five-year inflation expectation and the shorter term inflation expectation came in at 4.6 which is exactly what we expected that's good news because that's basically no news slightly lower than expected on the on the five years so that's good that that is positive and that is gonna help underpin the market here and look how green things are apparently up eight percent now is that an overreaction yes in the sense that i think on the next trading day or perhaps even throughout the day that number is probably gonna come down somewhat because very rarely do stocks go up eight percent ten percent and hold that on the next trading day because why people want to take profits they're people like alexey here asking themselves hang on i made 35 shouldn't i take some of that and you know buy something with it and that's people's mindset and again super important to understand the psychology of investors so you can make money out of it because you can predict what people are going to do again something else i teach you in my course guys so um nice camera upgrades this will go thank you actually i'm experimenting with some different lighting uh so filco thank you very much for that there um uh calvin okay we just covered inflation so it came in the expectations from uh from michigan are slightly lower or on target will be expected so that's good news um did wall street show palantir is it heavily shorted not particularly to be honest with you there isn't a great deal actually i can show you a uh let me pull this up for you um talent here here finvis is quite a good site if you want to just get up a number here so short float is six point four percent now that's up it is i did put a video out on that i think yesterday uh here's on our discord you can see guys we were at four point six percent a short interest of offload and it's gone up to 6.4
now these filings are always retrospective so they are filing them after the fact and where did it come from well can you see that here guys i hope it's big enough um we had quite a lot of institutional investors buying puts so you know goldman's nomura lots of lots of basically uh banks buying puts bank of america ubs et cetera is city and why did they do that because this filing is from the last quarter we were at a peak of a market they were expecting inflation they were expecting growth stocks to hit get hit hard so they want to make money they want to make money in all directions so they may they kept their shares they held on to them they just bought some puts stock price goes down they make their money they still hold their shares they're happy right everyone's happy so that's what you can do and that's a good strategy to do because you make money if you expect the market to go down there's nothing wrong with making money in both directions uh stefan okay you're sharing us about a lot covered lockdown you and joe thank you very much for sharing that stefan um and i i hope it's it's not too serious over there in hong kong we've had zero cases today so things are looking pretty pretty good here um filco is saying blackberry i did not nervous involved in the meme stock squeeze filco normally you tell me what is going on with blackberry filco's our resident blackberry expert on our discord channel let's have a quick look of how short float is nine percent so yeah not massively i don't think it's it's uh it's a short squeeze i think it's a bit of uh of enthusiasm from that particular group of retail investors um paluteau is now up nine percent which is of course super fantastic i think we deserve that for our patients by more palantir says cosmon um akash is asking what do you think about the regain uranium bull market um okay uranium obviously ingredient in nuclear power stations the whole thesis is that everything is going electric right so we go moving away from fuel to electricity where does the electricity come from okay a lot of people are saying green energy and stuff but there are issues with that we need a lot more batteries you need a lot more storage uh and therefore there will be likely be more nuclear power and i i think that's probably correct and people are there for buying uranium and and you know whether it's the commodity of the futures or mines now they have been quite cheap for some time because it's a pretty hideous thing to invest in basically uranium miners die of uh of cancer and they i think have a 50 higher chance of dying of lung cancer than coalminers so it's it's not a great group to be in and it's a pretty unpleasant business and that's why a lot of the institutions and funds have stayed clear of that but there are people who've been pushing this for the last year or two so i think it's it's it's a it's it's a reasonable story uh um great to see you and great of you to say hi um uh john bend uh wants to short my videos and wants me to stop with the ridiculous clickbait well it got you here didn't it so somehow it worked um well i think i think this particular title wasn't clickbaited in any any way shape or form at all i just put out the contract value which is totally true i should have done something a bit more dramatic right more flames and explosions um volume today is looking pretty nice i am with you on that says cosmin here i've got 25 million here at the moment let me have a look at the uh the live oh no you alright 40 million here this is the second by second live feed i i subscribe for uh so yeah absolute massive volume here on the way up um we need to wait for june for real inflation data says leo yeah and you know what that could be another great buying opportunity because if they are a little bit higher than expected people are going to thrash the growth market against a good timing to time our bias um uh 8.4 percent up how nice to see we'll settle down i'd imagine green days are nice on friday serious time i agree with you it's a very nice way to round up the weekend apologies guys i'm reading off my phone here because the the youtube chat thing doesn't work so i i don't mean to be rude but it's the only way i can i can see you guys um um uh andrew uh felix got him good morning hello jolly great to see you ciao uh oh wow perhaps um great to see you on the chat here 28 by the end of the day says michael wow that's pretty ambitious there michael that would be another 20 i think in a day that seems a little bit uh ambitious but we can get there in the end um palantir now is like buying tesla at ten dollars says eugene and the title is actually true says bob yes there's something wrong with that one right you know what tom nash said to me he said to me you you really need to make some do some clickbait you are so conservative with your titles so i'm taking some inspiration there um carmeno is not happy with baba because it's not going anywhere i'm not happy with baba either i don't really know anybody who is happy with baba and yes i think the underlying business should go this should be in the 300s at least but it's not really going anywhere and now okay barbara is kind of out of the woods of all this regulation stuff but now tencent is next and major one is next and everybody else so people there therefore are now reflecting the bad news for tencent onto the whole sector and it sort of hits barber again so this whole chinese tech sector isn't really going to go anywhere i think in the next couple of months and i think we're just going to have to accept that and and either be staying for the long run uh or uh or you know go go elsewhere um todd you're very kind um i really appreciate your very kind comments there thank you um uh philip how about this title 0.111 billion contract well yeah i i don't think that would zero would have really worked quite as well but um enhancers saying babar is is patience is required to be all nodes for long-term holders yeah i mean i think just look at you know the the baba fundamental numbers if you look on my my patreon i've got you know baba here let me just show you this um where is it okay let's just look here at at some numbers just some basic numbers here's alibaba and yellow and then amazon facebook etc and just look at you know gross profit margins 43 uh return on common um equity almost 19 those are pretty good numbers right they're like google type numbers we have 10 percent of capital is held in cash we have revenue growth forecast almost 40 percent that's better than any any of the fang stocks so you know there are some pretty you know ebit margins are 16 uh that's pretty good stuff for an alleged retailer right so you know i i'm not saying you should hold it and hold on to it it depends on your horizon but for me it is just something that eventually will bear fruit but it might not this year i think it's entirely possible um cindy you guys are very kind appreciate the kind comments uh smash the like and the subscribe button guys that's the best best way to show your appreciation because it helps me with the algorithm uh muscle that wants to look at 10 cent we can definitely do that we can have a quick look guys and if you just joined us we'll do a palantir roundup just in a second here as well so 10 cent is basically having a choppy time and let me overlay baba here and you can see that it's not a 10 cent problem really it's a um can you see the orange shot here that's baba rather adequately colored wouldn't you say in the baba orange so the whole sector is kind of trading like that so it's it's basically government regulatory worries that are hitting both stocks at the same time so you know they are moving um well not always i mean obviously barbara is much lower than that but now as of late they are moving in tandem so since about um end of january early february they're moving together because the market realized all the stuff that was applied to baba in terms of regulation holding companies financial holding companies and all that stuff 10 cents also has to follow that um muscle dog thanks very much um i don't mind the troll so much how often should long-term holders check the stock chart says eric well eric i think at a minimum i would once a quarter listen to the earnings call because that will tell you whether something is fundamentally changed that would be the minimum i would say but very hard to do to not look at a stock chart if you've invested in something especially with all the apps and things we have on phones now and you know if you watch me i'll probably show you the chats will be you'll have to turn off for me for it for three months um okay john all right you're you're not happy today go go make yourself a cup of coffee or something or you know go for a walk enjoy some sunshine do something happy to cheer yourself up a bit of meditation or something will go a long way um david you're right looking at the stock chart all the time is not necessarily beneficial unless you're planning on buying regularly so i buy at least once a month i mean actually i buy definitely once a month every single month on the same day but i do also have some funds tucked away if there is an opportunity so i do look for those opportunities that which is why i like looking at stock charts plus i honestly quite just quite enjoyed doing it but if you are you know invested in two stocks and you find that you are watching it absolutely all day every day uninstall some of those apps from your phones get a life and go and do something else and you know it's not going to go up i was in a taxi the other day and the guy that the driver had in front of him you know half a dozen phones which is quite common here and one of them was his stock portfolio and he was just refreshing refreshing refreshing refreshing at every traffic light he was just doing that he was doing it every second i was like it's not going to go up because you do that man take a chill pill you know and and the way you can relax is by knowing that you've invested in good stocks and the way you know that is you've done your fundamental research you've read their financial statements you've listened to the earnings call you've made a discounted cash flow model yes you've looked at momentum you've looked at the chart and you've written down why you bought it and what you aim for the stock to do and what you aim and expect from their financials and if that all sounds too difficult well you can either not do it and just live in the dark and buy stuff that other people are buying at a fomo or you know follow some guru but you always get the filing three months late so it isn't the greatest strategy um oh check out my course guys i teach you all of that and there's absolutely zero risk to you because there's 100 refund policy and you can you can do it and you just feel much much more confident like i invest in stocks so they go up or down ten or twenty percent no no i don't really care because for me it's a long-term thing because i know what that company is doing and whether the market overreacts and if it goes down and the market overreacts i see it as a buying opportunity rather than as something that freaks me out so it gives you a lot of peace of mind um why writing it down stefan because the emotion and the psychology of our mind is a problem say you bought palantir you know whatever five months ago if it is now down you know whatever it is a substantial amount the emotion of seeing that red number uh takes over and you no longer remember exactly why you bought it you forget the thesis you had at the beginning you forget what is your target what's your exit plan what's your strategy at what prices are you buying or what prices are you not buying um all of that stuff gets clouded away because your mind has this sort of you people don't want to ever admit that they made a bad judgment or in an error so that's one problem people never sell things that are actually bad now for something like palantir it's perhaps the opposite that's the problem is that people overlook the positive reasons that they bought it for and that nothing's actually changed but how do you know nothing has changed when you didn't write it down because your memory will play tricks on you and what you know you bought something two years ago do you remember what you thought why you bought it you pretty much just remember i thought it was a good company and you know my friend john buys it and and that isn't an investment thesis so to avoid the tricks you the mind plays on you i give you some templates and literally you can fill in just the reasons why you bought it and i give you some some uh some sort of tips and helper points to help you do that and you print it out you put it in a file or you stick it on the wall which is what i prefer to do on a fridge or something and that way you have that easy reference when it goes up or down you can be like ah okay now i know where i where i am so i absolutely recommend that um okay andre i'm glad i'm glad you find it entertaining um and hans i i i'm glad you're with me on that a written plan a journal is very important put a powerful tool and it's so you have to print it out i mean you can keep a little notebook um i like to print out little bits and i just cut them up and then stick them on a wall with a bit of a blue painters tape so it doesn't take the paint off um i like that writing down the reasons you purchase the company says muscle dock and yes i truly recommend that muscle dog if you want to get the templates there over on my my course page for which there is a link below with a 39 off coupon code which expires on sunday guys so check that out um fra is asking a very interesting question here do you think china will let the us order their companies so you are hitting the nail on the head here that is this whole um us uh holding foreign companies accountable act requires chinese companies to disclose their ordered papers to us auditors within a time frame of three to five years so there is no real urgency here china is saying i mean here in hong kong which obviously is part of china but it's a separate jurisdiction so the hong kong sec equivalent the stock exchange didn't have access to mainland chinese audits either until late december last year they were given a given access and i think it's in china's interest and in their financial interest to come to some sort of compromise and disclose you know at least the um important parts of those papers and it wouldn't really be a big hurdle because you know most of these companies that are chinese that are listed on the new york stock exchange are already ordered by you know pricewaterhousecoopers or something but their shanghai office not their new york office so you just have to find a a way to bridge that gap i think it's in everyone's interest the u.s financial industry wants chinese ipos
and listings they want those companies they want that money they want the fees if they don't if they close the door to all chinese companies the new york stock exchange becomes much much smaller and where does all the money go it comes here to hong kong so not really in a strategic interest of the market there either so i think both sides it's in their interest to figure it out um it might take them some time but i i think i'm pretty confident they're going to figure that out because it's money and both the chinese and the us sides like money so you know they have something in common there so i think it's going to get figured out but as i say the law has a three-year period in which that needs to get enforced but the enforcement mechanism hasn't started yet and the sec said at some point last year that they're going to sit on their hands for two years that was their proposal and it seems that they're doing that because the law does not give a deadline by when the sec needs to start looking at companies so they can simply say we haven't got a mechanism for looking at it and that's what they said at the moment so we're not doing anything at all so there isn't an acute risk here but there is a long-term one i appreciate you saying that robert getting frustrated that the world isn't seeing lithium stocks properly while the fundamentals that mount forecast remains solid and the price of lithium continues to rise long-term investing i suppose robert yeah and you know what robert the hardest thing is to is to follow your research and your conviction when the market is going against you when it turns around and the herd follows it you ride the wave a little bit and then you jump out at least for part of it you know when the herd is joined and that's where you make your money and i i know robert you are you're on my my course and that is exactly one of the psychology lessons i i i teach in a little bit more detail than that so you i know you've done a tremendous amount of research robert because you know you run a whole channel on our discord community which i really truly appreciate here on raw materials um and lithium prices are indeed near near all-time highs i would say they seem to have come down ever so slightly at least in china and we have all these technologies coming out sodium and all these things but they're not quite ready yet are they robert and they are not as powerful they can't store as much they might play a part of it but the short term is still very very much lithium so um i i my feeling on that one robert is i i've read most of your research i think i think it's it's pretty solid so i think we should get a reward at some point um and philip you're absolutely right always listen to people who say the opposite of what you believe in because it's the only way you get smarter and that's why quite often i read sort of seeking alpha articles or you know things like that like that i'm saying the opposite of what i think because you might just pick up that one little snippet research it and either it reconfirms your theory and your research oh it gives you something really interesting to think about and i think the word conviction is a slightly dangerous one and i think it's sort of arc who coined it kathy woods and i love them for their transparency but conviction does not mean making a decision one time and sticking with it forever that's not what smart investment is you have to revisit it when the facts change and for that you have to look at the facts and not exclude potentially negative facts you know otherwise you're just living in you know the sort of la la land really um fraid yeah the china hustle there is a there is a program out like that i mean look i i think look at the numbers do your own research there are a lot of documentaries out there that are are nothing but click bait um sandal growers are looking very good today you know what i was going to record a video on that i actually have some notes here on my desk just before this but i ran out of time so i i i might still do that i'll probably put it out tomorrow yeah running up a lot on speculation the underlying business is changing from a cannabis business to essentially a um an investment in the kind of cannabis space business their cannabis operations are horrible they're losing money all the time it's just a terrible business their investments are making money so maybe they're going to convert to an investment vehicle that might be the most sensible thing to do now palantir is abner's 5.95 or 6 percent as it refreshes here so it's still up very very nicely here mark is saying do we focus on other stocks apart from palantir new barber on the discord channel yes of course we do we don't just look at these you can see here for example of course there are some of the car companies there's ten centers blackberry we look at defensive stocks dividends tax stocks value stocks uh some chinese stocks we look at cryptos we look at space raw materials semiconductors ai fintech gaming and quite frankly that list is growing every week because more and more members are joining and they have different interests and then of course we keep adding to that so no i i'm not a sort of a one tuned band i think all good companies are interesting it doesn't really matter to me what sector or what geography they are in but thank you mark for that question um come and come and check it out if you like the discord community i think it's a really good one because so many of you guys if you also on this live chat here you share actual research you share news and no one ever posts really like i just bought this and just you know rockets and stuff like that yes we have some fun and we share some private things also there's nothing wrong with that but it isn't one of these sort of reddit channels where everyone's just banging the same drum a spirit child um thank you for your comment there sandal is getting a meme stock boost yes absolutely they always have look at the volume here can you see the volume 123 million shares traded they're always tremendous volume um roger says i own the lit etf for a while but there's not much room to grow at this point yeah there are these two um battery etfs one is called lit one is called bat b8 double t both reasonable plays i think but perhaps not i think you might have a point that there isn't that much room to grow for the actual lithium companies i think the mining is perhaps the more interesting one but it's also the more risky one i think one has to take that into account um micah saying do you see us leaving denver in the near future sorry who's leaving denver um okay robert is saying that lit is not a good investment bad stocks no research it's just like a sort of catch-all isn't it um sandar growers moving very good today 10 up good volume they always have this insane volume every day um robert's saying join the discord guys yes and you should do that guys and you can do it it's 50 cents a day and they'll still look there are five spots available so that's a special offer if you join it uh football the year you get another month off as well um and this i mean just just check it out what's the risk really so let me just go through some of these questions here i appreciate you guys i'm sorry i'm reading off my phone here it's the only way i can see your questions today um uh ch is saying how do these meme stock already kids coordinate and select which stocks to inflation and destroy well i mean there are obviously reddit groups on that but it isn't just that there are also a lot of um it's not serious it's the wrong word but professional investors a lot of funds and banks and institutions in on this and they are using this as a way to making some serious money here um ipoe is going to trade next tuesday any comments on it so did it be i put a video i don't know which was i was relatively harsh on the stock okay the company is a good company the product is a good product their customers seem to love it i was hoping they would have much better margins i was disappointed by their margins that's really i think the way i would sum it up in a nutshell maybe that's going to improve maybe it won't i i for me it is i don't know i for me it's a relatively risky thing to invest in when there are a lot of things i can invest in that a lot less risky it might give me the same return so when i see these kind of stock charts to start with i slightly fudder because things that have been up at 28 an hour 19 after a massive rally are somewhat scary because there is a lot of irrationality in there and i prefer my stocks a little bit more rational i like my stocks to act somewhat on the underlying numbers and so far we don't quite see that why because it's coming out of a spec and it's a problem in the long run that gets forgotten but i just you know look at look at the the margin numbers and just compare them to a bank and i appreciate banks have some advantages but given that their overheads are so low i don't really get where they are you not making those margins um uh oscar's asking how much money did they uh does palantir need to add to have a good quarter okay the if you look at the expectation it is my discounted cash flow model which of course is also on the the patreon here um by the end of the year we need to have about 1.5 billion in revenue so 1.5 divided by 4 you need to add 375 million revenue a month so this was a very good contract right this gets us like to uh you know almost a third of the way there tesla is dying well i wouldn't go quite that far i don't think tesla is dying let's pull up tesla tesla did get a shot in the arm from or will get a shot in the arm from from biden on you know they are going to give them those tax tax credits they're going to apply again to to uh companies have sold more than 200 000 cars so it's trending down a little bit here um chip shortage i i would say that's the best way of summing it up i don't think there's any real news out on um on tesla here that really affects things um what's that here consumer reports drops top picks for tesla model 3 okay i mean that doesn't really matter does it loses top pick status i mean who cares really so no i don't think it's any real news i mean look it's it's a it's a movement of of minus one percent i really wouldn't lose any sleep over it um robert is asking about trading bots so trading bots are basically somewhat ai powered bots so you have sometimes you have the very high frequency traders you can cause havoc because they can do things that we can't do if they are automated they take profits or do actions on the basis of what uh perhaps what technical analysis tells you so it's a little bit like the etf effect right if something gets sold off the etfs have to adjust they have to keep selling off and it makes the market more volatile or think of it as as margins if i say if tesla goes down 25 all the guys who bought tesla or margin are forced to sell so it makes the sell-off worse so these bots by acting on some sort of program uh tend to make the market more volatile i think that's perhaps the easiest explanation there what side are you using says dan the charts here that's tradingview.com guys it's absolutely free i think it's probably one of the best charting software's out there so check it out michael thank you very much ship for your support um keep it up with the dumbbells the consumer report has its biggest donations from the ford foundation oh my surprise i think we think why they read rubbish on tesla always you know what publications uh tend to have a an advertiser or a pay master somewhere so i really don't think that matters ford is doing a pretty good job marketing the f-150 there was a video out today also on youtube i saw another one there's some really big influences and stuff so it looks like a decent car i mean anything has anything wrong with it i'm sure they're going to sell them i'm sure ford lovers are gonna buy the ford but it isn't the most revolutionary technology i think it's basically just in apologies guys if you love your fords i think it's basically taking an ice and just changing the engine and that's a little bit i think where these guys miss a trick and that's where companies like tesla and neo really started from scratch were able to do something a little bit different so um yonshu is a time traveler okay you guys are talking about uh uh options for january 2022 well you know there's nothing wrong with doing that it is of course a a there's a risk in it but um you know i'm sure i'm sure john john rather knows what he's doing um so guys let's do it do a quick if you just joined us guys quick quick recap here valentina got that 111 million special forces contract which is a big deal and they have of course gotten contracts from the special ops command lots of them over the years i pulled that up for you as well these are all 25 contracts so far from the u.s special operations
command but the biggest i can find so far was 51 million in 2018 i think there was another 52 million again in 2018 so that's about what we're talking about here it's those kind of contracts sizes um let me see it was there a bigger one no i think that was that was about the biggest one we've had so this is a substantial contract why well volunteers revenue last year was was about 1.1 billion so this is basically 10 percent of revenue it matters and it's sticky and it's great because it just means that the trust and the faith and how deeply they are now embedded with the u.s defense department is is pretty much irreversible so this is this is great revenue and this is great predictable revenue uh going forward robert is saying 220 viewers and only 75 likes guys smash that like button it truly helps you have no idea how much it helps because it tells the youtube algorithm hey but these guys this guy's video are pretty good let's show them to somebody else and that of course it helps me a great deal so appreciate that michael howdy welcome here to portland um vladimir great to see you i'm very very well it's lovely to see you on the chat here vladimir is our viewer with the the driest and best sense of humor of vladimir so thank you for always joining and keeping us entertained especially on the live calls so let's do a quick market recap here uh let me just hit refresh on this make sure we're looking at the the best thing here so everything's looking pretty green um including orange juice and coffee which is always very important um pretty much everything's up right i mean unless you invested in wheat which is probably not really the case for most of you everything is looking pretty good the economic numbers we got out today where we're pretty good um income was down a little bit less than we were expecting um inflation overall looks like it might not be you know as bad as we thought at least from the michigan five-year inflation expectations uh and then the more short-term inflation expectations were bang on on target we are going to get the president's 2022 budget today that's going to be a whopper so there'll be billions and trillions thrown at all sorts of things and a lot of it will be thrown at ev so watch that space that's going to b
2021-06-06 06:41
