How the World Went From Flat to Fast – 2019 AT&T Business Summit
Morning. Kate thank you very much great to be with you all this morning. You, know we're living through an incredibly, complex. And confusing, time and when, people ask me what I do for a living I tell them I'm actually, a, translator, from English to English, that's, really what I try to do I try to take complex, subjects, that I don't understand, and break, them down so others can understand I really believe in the dictum. Of Marie Curie that now is the time to understand, more so. We may fear less, unfortunate. Lot of people are, in the business these days of making, us afraid what, I'm gonna try to do in the next half hour you share with you how I look, at the world today what's the lens through which I try to navigate and, make sense, of things I begin. With something. That my teacher, Lynne, Wells likes to say which today it's. Vital that you never think in the box you. Never think out of the box today. You have to think without, a box and what. I want to do is, share with you what, that means for me when. I look at the world today what, I think is the, biggest framing. Explanation. System. That I can employ is I think we're actually going through three. Climate, changes, at once. We're. Going through three climate, changes driven. By nonlinear. Accelerations. In, what I call the market, which is globalization. Mother. Nature which is climate and Moore's. Law which is technology, so. We're going through a climate change in in the climate, we're. Going from what I call later to now so, when I was growing up in Minnesota and the 50s and 60s later. Was when I could clean, that river purify, that Lake rescue, that orangutan, I can do an hour can do it later today, later is officially. Over whatever. You're going to save please. Save it now that's. A climate change we're, going through a change in the climate of globalization, we're, going from an interconnected. World to, an interdependent. World oh that's. A very different, world in, an interdependent world first of all your friends, can kill you faster, than your enemies if, Greek and Italian banks, had gone under, last night AT&T. Probably, would me and said Tom we've had to cancel the meeting I say what, great Greek. Greece, you know they're their allies they're.
In NATO they're in the EU but in an interdependent, world they're. Melting down can. Deeply, harm. Us and in an interdependent world your. Rival, falling, actually. Becomes more dangerous than your rival rising, had. China see six more islands in the South China Sea, last night, don't tell anybody personally couldn't, care less, had. China lost. Six percent, growth, last night, oh baby. This. Meeting, would be canceled. China. Falling, is much more dangerous to. Us than China rising in, the interdependent world that's a climate change and lastly. We're going through a climate change in business and and technology. And the. Way I described, that climate, change is, by pointing. Out how the world is basically gone from flat. To, fast to smart too, deep in just, the last 20 years so. What do I mean basically, technology, moves up in steps and every step tends to be biased toward a certain set of capabilities and, around, the year 2000. The set of capabilities, came together that, were biased toward connectivity. Toward. Connectivity. That was because of the, dot-com, boom bubble and bus collapsed, the price of fiber-optic cable, and we. Accidentally, wired. The world honey. I didn't mean to but, I Shrunk the world and. AT&T. Was actually in the middle of that and suddenly. We woke up around the year 2000, and discovered, that we could touch people, whom, we could never touch before and we, could be touched by people who. Could never touch us before I called my mom back in Minneapolis my, dear old mother back then and she. Said I was interrupted. Erica she was playing bridge on the internet, with someone, in Siberia. Someday. I could touch people and be touched like never, before. Because, connectivity. Had become fast, virtually. Free easy for you and ubiquitous, and, I actually came along and gave that moment a name I said it feels like. The world is flat, around. 2007. With the birth of the iPhone, own facebook AT&T, the cloud, we. Took another step up that step was biased toward complexity. He, was actually biased, toward abstracting. Complexity, it was driven by another price, collapse and acceleration, a collapse, in the price of compute, and storage and. A. Massive, acceleration, in their capabilities. Suddenly, we could abstract. So. Much complexity. From so many different things we could take sand out of the gears and put, grease in instead. And suddenly, now with one touch with. One little touch I could. Page a taxi, director. Taxi, pea taxi, raita taxi, and berated, by a taxi, with, one little touch, on my. IPhone. We, abstracted. Massive, amounts of complexity. And the world got. Fast. Because. Complexity. Became. Fast virtually, free easy, for you and invisible. Well. I would argue around 2015. Another. Step, up and this. Step. Up was. Based. On the collapse in the price of sensing, and another, massive. Acceleration, in compute. And storage which. Created the opportunity for, more powerful, algorithms. Around. Artificial, intelligence, and machine learning, around. 2015. Or so suddenly. Now with no touch. My. Cell phone buzzed this morning and said you're speaking, at AT&T and, 55 minutes and you're 54, minutes away so you better get going. With. The, dispersion. Of sensors, we, could now put intelligence. Everywhere. And we. Had put it so much so so diffuse that that intelligence, was tracking, where I was where I was going my calendar, and now. Pushing it to me, with. No touch. So. Where are we today, well. When the world goes from flat to fast. To. Smart. What. It starts, to do is go. Deep. So. My wife is actually building a word language Museum, in Washington DC it's called planet word she's a word person att's, actually, one of her biggest supporters, were so grateful for that and um. She. Likes to come home at the end of every year and tell, me guess. What the word of the year is because. The online dictionaries, now can track the most looked upward and last. Year the most looked upward in Webster's Merriman, was deep. Sorry, was excuse, me was justice, was. Just, more people looked, up the meaning of justice, last year than. Any other word kind, of interesting well, I told my wife and I've already given you a clue that I can tell you what the word of the year is for 2019, and that word is deep, have. You noticed how we're applying the word deep to everything these days deep. State, deep faith deep surveillance, deep mind deep research deep medicine, deep climate, were, putting, this adjective, deep on everything, and the reason we are is that we into, it that. When the world starts. Going, from flat to, fast to smart, and keeps accelerating it. Starts. Going deep. We're. Now able to touch things to. Find, things to. Analyze, things to, remediate things, with. A precision.
That, Just. Five years ago, was. Thought of as science, fiction. We. Are going deep, and it's. Even, entered, the popular, culture, you. May have noticed the song that won the, Academy, Award last year for best song, was. By Lady gaga, and Bradley, Cooper and it was called shallow. But. Think of what the verses were I'm off, the deep end watch as I dive in I'll never reach the shore crash. Through the surface where, they can't hurt us were, far, from the shallow now, oh baby. We. Are far from the, shallow now if you. Want to know what's going on between the US and China today, it's. Actually all about deep, you. See for 30 years, we. Could sell China deep goods. Technology. Software computing. And they, only sold us shallow. Goods, things. We could wear on our back on our, feet. On our ankles solar. Panels we have fixed on our roofs. They, sold us shallow. Stuff and we, sold them deep, stuff but. Now today China. Can make deep stuff, like, 5g. By Huawei and they're. Coming to us and saying we want to sell you our deep stuff stuff that goes into your sidewalk into the walls of your house into, the bot in your bedroom, and we're. Saying no no no no no we. Don't have a shared, trust and values, framework. To. Buy your deep stuff and that's. Why this us-china. Trade deal, is not going away it's really. Deep. So. What. Happens, when you're in three climate, changes, at once what what is it you want as a business, as a, parent, as a community, as an educator. What. You want are basically two things not resilience, you, need to be able to take a blow because stuff happens when the climate changes but, you also want propulsion, you want to be moving ahead you. Don't want someone saying to you I'm hiding, under the table Tom come out the climate, change is over. So. We want resilience. And propulsion, that's, what every parent community. Educator. In business, is searching, for today well. When I've because you're in the middle of multiple, climate changes and they're just getting faster. Well. Then I thought well who do I go to for, advice on, how you get resilience, in propulsion, when the climate changes, and then. I realized, I I knew this woman she. Was 3.8, billion years old, her name was Mother Nature and she, dealt with more climate changes than anybody, so. I called her up made an appointment went out to see her I said. Mother nature how, do you build resilience. In propulsion, when, the climate changes, she, said well Tom I gotta tell you everything I do I do unconsciously, but. These are my strategies, first. She said I, am incredibly, adaptive, you, see in my world Tom it's, not the smartest I've survived it's, not the strongest that survived it's actually the most adaptive, that survived and I teach that lesson through a process, I call, natural selection. You may have heard of it secondly. She said I'm incredibly, entrepreneurial. Wherever, see a blank space, in nature, I fill, it with a plant or animal perfectly. Adapted to, that niche I'm incredibly, entrepreneurial. Third. She said I'm, incredibly. Pluralistic, oh Tom. She said I'm the most pluralistic, person, you have ever met I tried 20 different species of everything, I see, what comes out see who wins and. She told me something interesting she, told me she noticed, that her most diverse. Ecosystems. Are, also her most resilient, and propulsive. Ecosystems. I love. Diversity, she, said four she said I'm incredibly, hybrid and heterodox. In how I think about the world, nothing. Dogmatic, about me I'm always experimenting, I'll, try any trees with any soils any bees with, any flowers. Fifth. She said I'm completely. Open source I let. Everyone. In my systems, fork off wherever they want to, discover something new. Seventh. She said I noticed. My healthiest, ecosystems, all networked, together and create, complex adaptive networks, to maximize, their resilience, and propulsion and lastly she told, me Tom I do believe, in the laws of bankruptcy. I kill. All my failures I return, them to the great manufacturer. In the sky and I take their energy to, nourish my successes. Well. I'm here to tell you today, that. The company, the. Country. The. University, the, community that, most closely mirrors. Mother nature strategies, for. Building resilience. And propulsion when, the climate changes, is the. One that's going to thrive in this. Age of three, accelerating. Climate changes, at once. So. What does that mean four different realms. Let's. Look at a few let's look at first, of all the, realm of politics. Well. You may have noticed that every political party, in the world has basically, blown up in the last five years they're. All blowing up. The. American parties are completely, transformed, in the last five years Britain's, two governing, parties have completely, blown up France is ruled by a man she's actually a president, with no part he's got an opposition, with no leader okay.
All Of, these industrial. Parties, are blowing up why is that why. Is it it's because they are actually built around a set of five very, stable. Binary. Choices that. Had been in place for 50, years when the world was slow pre these, accelerating, climate changes, and those binary, choices were capital, versus labour big. Government, versus small government. Open. To trade close, to trade open, to. Immigrants, close to immigrants. Embracing. Of new social norms, transgender, rights gay marriage not, embracing, and green, versus growth and every party. In the industrial world just lined up on one side of the other and then. Came my age of, accelerations. And it. Completely blew up the list. Let's. Imagine I am a steel worker today in Pittsburgh and I belong to the steel Union, Monday. To Friday hum. With labor baby I'm with, Bernie I got the Bern Monday. To Friday I got the Bern. But. On Saturday. I drive. For uber to pick up a little spare cash and, on. Sunday, I rent out my kids spare bedroom on Airbnb, before. I go shopping at Walmart to make buy the cheapest made Chinese goods I can find what I can't find there I get on amazon.com. On. Sunday. Baby I'm, with, capital, I'm a, total, deregulation. Guy, which. Party, am. I in. Which. Party, in Miami these. Parties, people often call me a centrist. It's usually said with a sneer, you're. A centrist. And, I, say what that actually implies, that. I am mush, between. Your right and left poles I'm. Actually not a centrist, I'm, not, on your. Grid. I'm. On a completely different, grid, I'm on Mother Nature's grid that's why I'm my last book thank you for being late I actually, imagine what if Mother Nature had run against Hillary Clinton and, Donald, Trump. In 2016, and I created mother nature's, political, party. And I tell you friends were in a transition, to. Have a completely, different kind of political. Party all across the Western world one. That Mears mother nature's, goals of resilience, and propulsion not. This traditional, right-left list. You. Can see this of course in. Numb in, other realms how mother nature's rules apply let lets let's talk about business, today, if. You want to have resilience and propulsion in the world of business. It's. Very clear what you, need to do you. Need to sensor, eyes you. Need to capture all the data around your business you. Need to be able to analyze, that data using. Cutting-edge AI. To. See patterns, to. See needles, in haystacks that. Were never apparent, before you, then need to be able to optimize off that data, you then need to prophesize. Off that data you've seen the IBM Watson ad for, the elevator repairman shows up at a high-rise. Building tells, the doorman I'm here to fix the elevator doorman, says sorry the elevators not broken, IBM. Repairman says I know but it will be in six weeks in three days you need to be able to prophesize. You, need to be able to customize, just. Four guys, with brown eyes and a mustache for Minnesota you need to be able to localize you. Need be able to digitize. And automate, I new. Jobs products, and services at a constant. Pace if you, are not doing that you. Will never be resilient, and propulsive. As a business. Today. Because. I'm a big believer whatever, can be done will be done that's why I'm always focused, on the technology, whatever. Can be done will be, done and the only question for your business, is, will it be done by you or to you by, a bad, Buckeye or a competitor. And they're, both early, adopters. That's. The. Challenge, of managing the climate change in business there's a challenge of managing the climate change in education, because. When we're in the middle of multiple, climate changes at once we need to new, radical. Reforms. We. Need first. Of all lifelong. Learning. The. Only. You know might one of my teachers Heather, McGowan, likes to say to me Tom. Never. Ask your kids today what, you want to be when you grow up because, whatever it is not. Gonna be here, only. Ask, your kids how you want, to be when you grow up will you be predisposed. To be a lifelong, learner. Because. Other. Than policemen, or firemen pretty. Much every, job is, going to be constantly. In play, and it is only your, willingness. And inspiration. To be a lifelong learner that, will be your single most important, competitive, advantage, and at, the same time, again. If I were apply mother nature's politics, if I were running for president right now what, would buy me my number one thing it.
Would Be radically. Incentivizing. Companies to. Go back into the education business. To. Be educating. Their workers to be constantly, investing in their workers because who knows better, where. The cutting edge of your business is and what are the cutting edge skills than businesses. Themselves, I'd, actually be working on education. For all all, the time. Not. Medicare-for-all that. Would be my, priority, that's how businesses, are going to be resilient what. About government, what. About government, we. Talked about politics, but what about actual governance, you. See the. People who run the College Board the people who do the PSAT, and SAT exams, they, they actually got on to something a couple years ago they they said well there many things every high school student should know all your kids but. They decide there are two things every high school student should know to. Codes and so, they created two new SAT two twos how. To code a computer, and the. Code of the US Constitution. And, they. Think those two should actually go together and, I. Would tell you that Mark Zuckerberg is exhibit, a of someone, who took the first course and not, the second. And. You. See we have a big problem with that because, when the world goes in deep at this. Pace what's. Going on is that technology. Is going deeper, deeper and deeper into your life at the pace of Moore's Law but, our ability to govern that technology, or the right norms, ethics, standards and, Galatians is operating. At the pace of human biology and there's, a complete, mismatch, in. Those so. Technology, is going so much deeper into your life than, our governing, systems. Can. Generate, the ability, to govern them, with the right norms, and that's. Why you get, senator. Orrin Hatch questioning. Mark Zuckerberg, and asking. Mr. Zuckerberg, if you. Give, your product away for free how do you make money and, mr.. Zuckerberg, stifling. A laugh said, senator, we. Sell ads. If. That's where the regulator, is and the, technology, is going that deep we, live in a huge mismatch so. How do you get resilience, and propulsion and governance you gotta approach it in a completely different way I call it quantum government, okay. It isn't binary, it doesn't exist in just a one in a zero state we, are gonna have to actually create a system, where businesses. Partner. With government to. Write the regulations in, real time that's the only way government, can keep up with this ethical. Challenge. We face today so. Let me end with that ethical. Challenge because we actually we, have a, ethics. Challenge. With all these climate change that is radically, new I. Started. Thinking about this many years ago I was, in 1999, I was in Portland Oregon talking. About my book Lexus, in the olive tree in the Portland theater and a young. Man a question time raised his hand from the far balcony, said mr. Friedman I have a question, he. Is God, in. Cyberspace. He, is God in cyberspace. I said, I. Have. No idea felt. Like an idiot I got, home I called my spiritual, teacher he's, a rabbi got to know when I was the New York Times correspondent Jerusalem, names to be Marc's brilliant, Tom Munich scholar now, lives in Amsterdam married, to a Dutch priest interesting, character I tracked him down in Amsterdam, I said, see I got a question I've never had before is God in cyberspace.
What. Should I have said he, said well Tom in our faith community, we actually have. Two, concepts, of the almighty a biblical. Concept and a post biblical, concept, the biblical concept says the almighty is. Almighty. He. Smites evil and rewards good and if. That's your view of God he. Sure isn't in, cyberspace. Which, is full of pornography, gambling cheating. Lying prevarication. Of people smearing one another on Twitter and now fake news. But. Fortunately, he said we have a post, biblical, view of God and the post biblical, view of God says. God manifests. Himself by. How we behave, if. We want God to be in cyberspace, we. Have to bring him there but, how we behave, there only. We can bring God into cyberspace. Really. Liked his answer put it into the paperback edition of Lexus, Daltry in the year 2000, where none of you saw it and it sat there for 16 years anyways. I started writing my new book thank you for being late and I. Found, myself spontaneously. Retelling, that story and I finally sat myself down said why are you retelling, that story and the answer became quickly apparent to me is for two reasons and one just happened the, one that just happened is that in the developed world we, are now living, 51%. Of our lives in, cyberspace. Yeah. That's where you find a date find a spouse buy a house buy a car get a mortgage do, your banking do your brokerage get your news generations buy a book write a book you're, living, now 51 percent of your life in cyberspace, and what's my definition. Of cyberspace. It's, a realm where we're all connected. And no. One's in charge. So. Realm we're all connected, and no one's in charge there's no police in cyberspace no. Editors. No. Courts, no stoplights no stop signs no 1-800, please, stop, Putin, from hacking, my election but. That's where you're living 51. Percent of your life you're, living 51, percent of your life in a realm that is fundamentally. God, free. At. The same time because. Of these incredible. Accelerations, and globalization and technology, we, are now standing, we. The human species at, a moral, intersection. None. Of us has ever stood at before, in. 1945. We entered a world where one country could kill all of us but had to be one country I prefer it be mine I think. In this age of acceleration, we're. Entering a world where one person, can kill all of us and. At the same time where all of us could actually fix. Everything. We've. Actually never been here before we are entering a world where one of us can kill all of us and all of us if we put our minds to it we now have the tools and. Accelerating. Even more powerful, ones that, could feed house clothe, that educate, every person on the planet. We've. Never, been here before where. One of us could kill all of us and all, of us could fix everything well put those two together we've never lived more of our life in a realm that, is Godfrey, and, we.
Have Never been more, godlike. What. Does that mean, it. Means if we want true. Resilience. And propulsion in, the world we're going into everyone. Needs to be in the embrace of sustainable. Values at. A minimum, the Golden Rule do, unto others as you. Wish them to do unto you is you've. Never lived in a world where more people can now do unto, you farther faster, deeper cheaper, than ever before and you, can do unto others farther, faster deeper cheaper, than. Ever before, everyone. Needs to be in the embrace of the Golden Rule and every faith and culture has their version of it I know, what, you're thinking I know. What you're thinking I gave this part of my talk is the commencement address at Olin. College of Engineering a, few years ago and I said to the parents there I know what you're thinking, you, paid, $200,000. So your kid could get an engineering, degree and who. Do they bring in as the commencement speaker, but. A knucklehead, promoting. The golden, rule is. There. Anything, more, nice, and. What. I'm here to tell you folks is in. This age of multiple, accelerating, climate changes, naivete, is the new realism. Because. I'll tell you what's really naive thinking. We're going to be okay in. A world that it's the super empowered, and interdependent. If everyone. Is not in the embrace of the Golden, Rule where, do we learn that we learn it in. Strong, families, and healthy, communities, which is my bookends, and community, don't have time to get into it now I'll just conclude as my, book concludes with my theme song I have. A theme song when, I wrote my book I checked if I could buy the song so when you open the book up it would play this song like, a Hallmark, card plays, happy birthday, song. Is by one of my favorite singers her name is Brandi Carlile, her song is called the I the. I II ye, and I believe that song is the anthem of our time, the, main refrain, is I wrapped your love around me like a chain but. I never was afraid that it would die you can, dance in a, hurricane. But. Only if you're standing, in, the eye. You. Can dance in a hurricane but. Only if you're standing in the I my. 3 climate change folks their hurricane, we, have leaders all over the world trying to build a wall to the hurricane I'm, actually trying to build an eye and, eye that moves with the storm draws energy from, it but creates a platform of dynamic, stability, like riding a bike where. People can feel connected. Protected. And respected, and, both. Resilient, and propulsive, that, is the healthy, governed. Ethical. Community. And I believe the great struggle, in our world going forward is. Going to be between, the wall, people and the. Eye people, and my. Book a my, talk, is. A manifesto. On behalf, of the eye people thank, you very much. Thanks. For watching for, more videos from AT&T business, click, Subscribe.