Forex Market Analysis (Ichimoku Trading Strategy) | July 5, 2018
Good, morning, everybody it is, 729. In the morning on this beautiful. July. 5th, of 2018. It is a day after the fourth of July I hope, all, of you who are stateside. I hope we had we, you had a good and a safe. Independence. Day, and. Unfortunately. Independence. Day you. Know every, every, so. Often well actually I guess it's like, every. Every. Only. Wow. I'm having problems with the words today. It. Always stinks and we have a holiday. On a Wednesday, because then. Thursday, and Friday are the days after and it's like in the middle of the week to have a holiday and you got, to kind of behave yourself if you're gonna have, to work the next day or. Maybe you work in a job where you don't have to behave yourself so. Anyways. Let's, go ahead and take a look at these markets, we. Had some good moves. Late. This well really really early this morning. And overnight, and, we should look to see some of these moves. Continuing. Certainly, yesterday, not, a lot of activity and due to the holiday. We. Were expecting, that so. I did put in to trade ideas for the day today. Just, earlier like a beginning. At the top of the hour here at like 7:00 or 3:00 a.m.. US dollar Canadian dollar short, and a dollar yen short, as well. Let's. Go ahead and take a look at the trades from yesterday. We. Want it to go long. On. The. On. Gold. At, 12:00. No. I'm sorry that was on Friday no. Tuesday. Actually. We could we, could go over Tuesday's, trades too because a lot of the trades that we put out yesterday or, the same trades as the ones on Tuesday. So. Yesterday. And Tuesday's, trades are pretty much the same so we can go ahead and look at those so. Gold. Trade if we wanted to go long. At, 12:40. Seven on Tuesday, and that, worked out has, worked out very nicely so, far. You. Know we can see that we were touching the upper band of this cloud on the 4:00 hour but, the legging span is is above, the price action here, and. We. Should see the. Kuhmo, of the cloud here, turn. And. And become green here fairly soon. If. We look at actually, you know let's look, at all the market geometry over on this side. Oh. Yeah, I have the right chart up okay. So, the gold trade taking the long based, again not on the Ichimoku, but. Based on the. Based. On the, market. Geometry, and the time cycles, but. Certainly. We could. Have. A bias for going along on a chi muku with the hourly. We're. Gonna win, I'm gonna apparently. Working on a pretty. More. Detailed. Ichimoku. Kind. Of a session, or a couple sessions, going. Over more specifics, again and kind, of going through the, the. The. What. You might call it the. Entire. System as a whole and talking about the other ones there's a. So. Gao Qi husana was the man who created the a Qi muku system and it's. I'm having, difficulty, finding. His. Written. Work but, there was a gentleman, who came out in 1996. Or so, hidden. Oh Lu Sasaki, he. Is the author of the. Ichimoku, system. That we know I mean it's the same system. As Deutsche, asada but. Hidden. Nobu, Sasaki. He, he. Published. A book on the. Ichimoku system, and. It. Was the number, it. Was it was the top rated trading. Book. In. Japan. For like eight or nine years in a row the. Only thing is is I can only find.
The. The. Book in, Japanese. I can't. Find a. I. Can't. Find a. What. You might call it a. An. English version so anyways. Here. We go. Okay. So. We. Had that the. Euro trade. Let's. See so. We. Had the gold trade we were talking about that's worked out nicely the pound dollar we, wanted to go long in the pound dollar at one 3193 that, has worked out one, thing I want you to notice though is that this. Angle that we're coming up against, and this. Mid, either, major mid. Harmonic. Or the intermittent, are Manik there's, a, number of instruments right now that are that are right up against us so this can be very difficult for us to cross above, it. Can be hard for us to want to trade. Above this but it also means we're nearing a breakout zone, so. The. Pound on. The four-hour is about two it. Has. Almost. Has a condition, met for breaking, out on the four-hour and that's just when the lagging span crosses, above which will bring us right above this angle. Here and when. The pound does break above that's. Gonna be a pretty, nice ride higher okay. So. The pound dollar, actually, we could. At. One thirty two seventy nine. Oops. That's. On the four-hour Ichimoku. Okay. And then we have the. Other trade on Tuesday, this is about the same entry as the one we had yesterday. 1683. Versus. 1673. That's, the euro trade and, so. On the Euro. We. Wanted to go long at, 168. 83. Or. 116. Or sorry, 116, 83 or one 1673. And very. Very obviously. We can see that that is working out very nicely we, are well into that, trade here. You. Know the the for our Ritchie Mugu is telling us that the entry we had at that 83, level worked out perfectly. I mean. Ichimoku. Is, phenomenal. If you've been if you've been with me in the morning for any length of time well. I guess for over, over. The last. You. Know a few months. Then. You'll know that the. Ichimoku. System, has a has. A pretty. Phenomenal and, a. High degree of. Positive. Expectancy. And. You. Can do very well with it the. New Zealand dollar. We've, got a beautiful inverse. Head & Shoulders set up here in in. The. New Zealand dollar on the 4-hour chart we. Are coming up against the cloud though on the 4-hour and we are very very elevated, in the 4-hour but, I'm really not. Worried. About that because we have so much support going, on. Should. We expect some type of pullback soon maybe possibly. But you know, you. Know we, want it to go long at 6788. Which. Is working out. We, are elevated, in these. Condition. Our oscillators, so. Just. Be aware of that I mean I'm not overly concerned, about them I think we we move higher regardless, because. We've been in such a down. Drive. And, then, we hit the last one we had was the Aussie dollar where. We wanted to go long at 73. 97, and we can tell that that one is working out pretty nicely in fact, I. Think. That we have a good lung condition, met here on the hourly already if, we look at the 4-hour oops. Four-hour, we. Were discussing. This a little bit the, other day but the. Cloud is quite heavy, up here, and. The. Legging span. You'll. Often see the legging span act. At just as price does where even. Though price would be trading out here the legging span can, respond, off of this previous. Floor, projected, price and and, and get rejected off of it in fact we can go back and see this happens quite often where. I'm. Trying to find an example where. Okay. Like this area activity, right here. Oh. No. Wonder, so. This, price action here, is the, legging span back here so whatever was trading right here. Okay. Here, we go how about a good example would be of this so. Let. Me do the market replay real quick I'll, just set it right there. So. We see the, watch. The legging span here as we hit play, watch. Price action so there's. A lot of people who would consider. Going long on. The four-hour without. Waiting for the legging span to give you the confirmation which is which is legging. Span is our is our signal okay now watch what's happening here so price is above the cloud it's got pretty bullish momentum right. However. Legging. Spans in sacks as resistance. From the bottom, to the top of the cloud it acts as resistance, when you try to get into it from. The top or the bottom and, so. People. May be wondering why is price, falling. Here I mean we have the the, trigger line above, and, we've got the. Price. Trading above why would we be why would we be trading, down from there look, at the lagging span because the lagging span will respond, to strength two to resistance, than support levels, just. Like the current price action does. Okay. It will respond, to. The. Same strength. And resistance levels, in the. Ichimoku system, so it's, getting rejected, inside, the cloud. Okay. And then when we fall outs down the outside of the cloud that is a good, signal to actually. Consider going short. And. We can see this activity happening, here.
Choppy. Trading. Alright. So anyways that is a that. Is something I want you to pay attention to and you know look at and monitor as the is the. Current. Position of the, legging. Span now. We. Have an inverse head and shoulders set up here on the. On. The. Aussie. Dollar on the, 4-hour. And. We. Know that out of all the patterns, I was just reviewing this in the chartered. Market technician, material. That. Patterns. For, the most part they don't have a very high positive expectancy. Rate except, for, a few and the head and shoulders is. One. Of the highest. Probability. Of. Forming. Constructions. And. So. You. Don't I do. Because. I like to I like to trade. With a lot of risk but. If. I, know that if I know that head and shoulders pattern is, a high, probability. Pattern. Regular. Head and shoulders are an inverse head and shoulders although. I I don't know why I used. To well I know I but, I feel like the inverse, head and shoulders has more of a positive expectancy. Than the regular head and shoulders but. If. We, know that this type, of a pattern, has. The highest probability of, playing out and price action responding. To the behavior. Of this type of action. Then, I know. That. There. Also has to be a not. An equal, but a fairly, high. Probability. Of the, construction. To actually, form okay, because most of the rejections, and failures. Of a head, and shoulders pattern or an inverse head and shoulders pattern happen, right at the neckline where, price will get up to here and then it'll fall back down. But. Regardless. Price. Will like to get up here to finish the, formation. Before continuing, higher or getting rejected and going lower. But. For right now my. Viewpoint, is is that we actually move, higher and we continue, to move higher and. If. You, want to wait for a break of the neckline that's cool otherwise I mean, I am totally. Comfortable. Taking. A log in here maybe later on in the afternoon, what. We'll see though. All. Right. Okay. Let's, kind. Of rundown these, guys one more time so we've got gold, gold. Trade is is. More likely moving higher because. I believe, we are moving higher. Not. Believe I I know we have the highest probability of, moving higher because of this angle. And the time cycle, and all that jazz I. Will. Probably want, to wait for the legging span to, get above. The baseline, here and so. The 12, 59 45. Is a, good. Is. A. Good long condition. On. Gold. The. Dollar yen. We're. Still, short. Continuing. To hold that short and see how much farther down we can go. Looking. Forward to this drive lower actually. If. You if we didn't get in the shorter this morning if we're waiting for the next short opportunity, then we're, going to have, to wait for, the. Legging span to go back down below price, and so, we'll be looking at, the. 1141. 1142. Sorry, 1 1040. That's. Based on the one I reach in MOOC ooh look. At the four hour. That'd. Be a pretty nice entry. There too so, be. On the lookout for that. US dollar Canadian dollar. Gorgeous. Short, opportunity. Here I, mean. Even the present value area is good the, 4-hour chart we. Have great, conditions, for being short here, I mean.
This Is just. A phenomenal a. Great. Great, short opportunity, in there. Ozzie. Dollar we've, done. Maybe. Not taking a trade on that one right now new, zealand dollar. Watching. That one the, euro dollar. We. Did, not put a change for this one because and, i don't know why we probably should. It's. The for our what's the one hour look like oh. That. Looks really fakie to me. How. Far away from the baseline are we. 1676. We're not too. Far we, could probably. Buy in a pull back to the. 1690. It. Would just stay like. 117. 117. 2 1 1 6 0 2. 1. 6 8. That's. On the one hour each you buku. Goals. Really getting. A little drive going on here and watching this play, out that's pretty nice like. To see that happen. Pound. Yeah. Ok. So far to not. Too worried. Pretty. Nice steady drive up and we see. The. Baseline, is continuing, to act as a strong support, level that's. That's good. Good to see happening on the, 4-hour you. Know we. Are seeing. All. The conditions, met except that legging. Span see, this, is the other thing to notice is that. The. Legging span end and the current price action they both found resistance, up against this angle, so it's, normal, to see some selling here but I tell you what once we do break this. We. Should have a pretty, significant. Rise, from. This zone it should, be a should. Be a pretty heavy drive up I. Wouldn't. Anticipate a, a, slow, rise at, a break of this angle in this and this mid harmonic, Intermed, US. Dollar Canadian dollar. Showing. Off some weakness here while. We've been talking that's. Kind of cool but. Let's. Look at Kryptos real quick. Bitcoins. Showing a lot of strength there's, been a lot of attempts, to try and sell this off here, but, we keep finding rallies, and we, keep finding support at the baseline here on Bitcoin we can see that we're finally above, and trading above the four-hour cloud now and. We. Have not actually, traded. Above the four-hour cloud with bullish momentum since. Well. Yeah. Back on, April. 11th. Maybe. So. We see buying pressure coming back in we see what's. This thing oh. We. See, the. The, baseline, holding as a support, zone so. We're just watching a lot of continuation. We see these continued. Bart. Buying. Things. Going on here and we're. Seeing that reflected and all the other Kryptos as well aetherium, getting. A nice bit theory. Am is gonna have a nice four-hour, break out of the cloud here. If. We can get there. Litecoin. Similar.
Thing We, want to get a break above to, that 8776. Card. On oh I love. Card I know it's not fun to want to trade, so. We've got a lot of them that are just kind of sitting in these these. Zones where they're just, kind of pausing, and resting and then more, than likely you, know between now and Saturday, we'll. We'll, see a. Big. Drive. Higher a big, price spike higher that. Has been the behavior so far. Okay. All. Right, other than that you, know I don't really see, a. Lot. Of, other. Things, to, take, a peek at, just. See the dollar yen just caught a bit of a bit here but still. Inherently. Bearish. At. This level. All. Right. Yeah. There's. The Aussie dollar new zealand dollar everything's, trying to do a little bit of selling up here. But. It's getting bought back up. Some. Short traps going on that's for sure I. Want. To make sure that I have a euro, resting, order. And. Wait. That's the pound I already have a trading for the pub what am I looking at the euro the. Euro, bro bro bro bro. Probably. Not a bad, and. I hate buying up here. Even. Though even. Though it's. It'd. Be okay. To do yeah. If. We get the pullback that'd be fine but if we don't just. That's. A hard one. Okay. I, stop in I just. Put a buy stop in, it one. At. 117. 15. That's. Where my buy stop is just four pips above here. By. Than that yeah. Anyways. Those, are the traits for the day we've had a pretty good week, so far even though it's been a holiday and we, should continue. To see, the. Dollar. Sell-off. I, mean, if we're looking at the dollar index I forgot, to point that out is that dollar. Index we're at the swing low showing up but on the four-hour Ichimoku. We. Are in, a. We're. In a strong selling, condition. Here, by. The way this fold back pattern seems to be playing out so far. It's. Pretty, cool how that works so. We should continue to see some selling, maybe all the way down to here, and the dollar index which means all the other pairs. That are, bull. That are paired against the dollar should do better. Look. Excuse me. And. That is that. Yeah. Some great trade, opportunities, coming up here and we should have a good time and watch some, real. Drives lower I think the biggest mover, that we have yet to see as far as a huge like, throw. Up in price going. Downwards, is. The dollar yen, the. Dollar yen still, really, needs we still really need to watch this one just. Really, fall. Down hard, it, has not done that yet. You. Know we are. This. Is this is kind of cool, thing to look here and I'm. Pretty. Sure it is at that 50 percent level there but yeah. The. The. This is this is a good. Representation of, the natural, how. Markets are natural, and non-random and how. A lot of the different, many of the different ways that we analyze. The markets they all kind, of tell, a different, story but, have the same ending, so. Between. These two swings, here's the 50% retracement level, that's right on this pivot, harmonic, of 1 1071. And in, the Ichimoku system. So this is where we this is this is what I mean by it's the same it's a it's a it's a different the. Stories being told differently, but it has the same ending. The. And in this respect we have the the, Japanese. Eastern. Style, technical. Analysis, where. Instead, of using the Fibonacci ratios, that baseline. The. The. Kitchen. Sin that. Is like, the 50%, retracement, level. All. Right that. Is like the 50%. Level. And Fibonacci that, is like the 50% and it is the it's like that's, just how it is it's like a it's like a traveling, 50. Percent retracement and, then. We. Also, yeah. We so we have those three confluence, of that being a 50% retracement level and Gann always talked about 50 percent being the being.
A The. Highest probability of, price finding a stop or reversal, so. That, is what we're looking at right there price. Getting rejected off of the off of the 50 percent level in the in this most recent swing, that in the 50% retracement, in that Fibonacci it's. Been, rejected at the baseline. Which. Is like, the 50% retracement ask when you're rejected and a, natural. Harmonic. Level. Okay. I, have. To actually, make a screenshot of this because I'm thinking of writing a book. On. Ichi, muku and gam. Because. There's nothing written about there's. No literature. Implementing. Both. And. There should be so, anyway we've got that going. On for us and. Certainly. We should see the. Dollar, yen continue to be a nosedive and, it's, a good area to watch it happen so. Anyways. I hope, you guys have a great rest, of your trade day and I, look forward to talking with you tomorrow, bye. Bye.