Weekly Forex Forecast (26/09/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's weekly  Forex forecast I hope you're having a fantastic   weekend last week was a game changer the dollar is  going parabolic and because of this it's setting   up a stock market crash in October next month we  are going to look at this in more detail at the   end of the video and for GMT members I am putting  out a special video this weekend before the Market   opens to go through that in detail very quickly  many of you were asking after last week's video   for more information on the membership because  I want to keep the weekly Forex forecast video   focused on the analysis what we've done is we've  created a special information page for you to read   through in your own time if you are interested  and we have the link in the description below   and also in the pinned comment below so you can  click on it and you can see all of the different   information about GMT membership including all of  these 75 markets that we look at on a daily basis   with live market analysis and if you have any  questions you can simply click on the website and   ask one of our team in the live chat section so  with that said let's have a look at the economic   calendar because last week was a huge week and  it was pivotal we had frmc on Wednesday which   was really the big one this was where pal came out  reaffirming what he said at Jackson Hole and this   caused the dollar to rally and at the same time  we had uh the boj which failed to raise interest   rates but they intervened in the Yen last week  which caused the end to spike we then had the   Swiss National Bank raising interest rates as well  as the bank of England raising interest rates and   actually despite the bank of England raising  interest rates and the Swiss National Bank   and also the Rick's Bank out of Sweden last week  raised interest rates we actually got sell signals   during the week on all of those currencies despite  the raising of interest rates and all three   of them sold off hard after those interest rate  decisions and just a quick look because we do have   the Italian elections on Sunday which can affect  the Euro and also EU stocks and we also have the   pce core PC price index coming out next week  at 1 30 and this of course is Jerome Powell's   preferred measure of inflation so that is going  to be an important piece today to next week okay   so let's have a look at the scorecards for the  coming week and look at this when I said things   changed last week I wasn't kidding you this  is extremely rare you only see this in the   scores these multiple changes and especially  look at the Japanese Yen the score of plus   five you only see this after large Market  changing weeks and that is exactly what we   had last week we do have at the top of the  leaderboard still the Swiss franc but notice   the Swiss franc comes off of overbought for the  first time it was plus four it's now plus three   in the PDF guide that we've attached in the  description in the pinned comment for you to   use these scorecards you will see that is the sign  that if you are long Swiss franc pairs you should   be looking at booking profits it doesn't mean  it's a short it just means we may get a near-term   bounce over the next few weeks so because of that  my first favorite currency going into next week is   the dollar that I want to be long it is holding  up at plus two and as I said at the beginning of   the video it is actually as it currently stands  going parabolic and we could have been for some   very very severe moves in the US dollar so you  have to take everything into context next week   because it could be very volatile so just beware  we will go through this in the markets the next   best long for the first time in a long time is  the Japanese Yen I am going to be interested   in Ian long plays and I'm going to be preferably  pairing those with the Canadian dollar which we've   got an outright sell or short bias signal for -1  to -2 in fact it was my it was plus one in last   week's video and it's now minus one which is a  net change of minus two we also have a big net   change in the pound the pound is the most bearish  on a one month forward-looking basis and also the   New Zealand dollar to the downside as well so my  preference going into next week is going to be   pound New Zealand Canadian dollar shorts vis-a-vis  the US dollar and also the Japanese Yen the very   fact that we have the Japanese Yen going from  minus four to one in the scorecards for the   first time I mean the Yen actually came off of  oversold as well but this went straight into the   positive column which is not what you see very  often at all in fact I can't remember the last   time I saw that and this is a sign that on a one  month forward-looking basis we could be about to   see some strong risk off in the markets and that  includes stock markets and of course all other   markets including Commodities and also currencies  so major changes last week week not to be ignored   it was an extremely significant week okay so let's  have a look at the individual currency starting   with the dollar Index and normally we're on the  daily chart looking at these but we have to go   to a weekly chart because this Market has got so  volatile that you have to take the bigger picture   to understand what's going on here we haven't  even had a correction in the weekly chart really   I mean I know these are pullbacks but these are  not significant Corrections the last time we had   that was down here about ninety dollars without  113 without any significant correction in the dxy   this move is stunning and it's actually historic  as well and the scary thing about this chart is   the dollar is actually accelerating it is actually  accelerating it tried to form a very near-term top   recently a couple of weeks ago and we saw last  week the gold price try to bottom and it failed   it failed quite quickly and the dxy accelerated  to the upside so the dollar is going parabolic yes   when you get sharp moves up like this you do run  the risk of it snapping back in your face so if   you are trading this to the long side I would be  using wide stops to make sure you can accommodate   the volatility we're now seeing however I don't  think we have any choice as Traders but to be on   the long side of this where we can so again I'm  not saying jump in right at the top here with the   tight stops because that's just asking to be taken  out on a volatile pullback but I would be treating   any pullbacks in the dollar now as an opportunity  to look for further advances next is the Euro and   look at this on the weekly chart huge sell-off to  the downside we've taken out the previous Target   here and I mean honestly at this point we do have  a Target down at the 0.9670 but this is selling   off so hard I mean it's unlikely to respect any  of these Targets in a significant way we have   broken below the four-year breakout of the 1.06710  which I've been highlighting in recent weeks and   we've broken out below the seven year breakout of  the 1.0375 and now this Market is accelerating to   the downside so I see further declines to the  downside in the Euro the pound has broken the   major breakout level that are highlighted to you  in the dxy thread I posted on Twitter and also   in the description below and because we broke  this level you saw the capitulation here which   we haven't seen in the pound since the covered  sell-off and also the brexit sell-off the pound   the UK are at risk of having a currency crisis  here in my opinion so this is a serious problem   for the pound and previously I did highlight that  I believe the pound was going to parity I think   we're probably going to get there quicker than  most people think next is the Swiss franc you   can see the Swiss franc did sell off last week  but it's holding up significantly better than   the other currencies so we're not looking at Swiss  franc uh in the markets this week purely because   of that signal from the scorecards from overbought  to oversold just telling us it's not as good as it   was but if you wanted to look at the Swiss franc  pairs I would be treating any pullbacks in the   Swiss franc pairs for example pound Frank to the  downside New Zealand Frank to the downside uh CAD   Frank any pullbacks in those markets I would still  be treating them as opportunities to look for   further advances in the Swiss franc on a relative  basis so I do still think you see pound Frank go   down in the near future New Zealand Frank go down  in the near future Etc but it's off the table this   week just because I think there are better markets  relatively speaking though is holding up pretty   well next is the Japanese Yen now last week you  can see the Japanese yen is still right at its   lows last week the boj intervened in the Japanese  Yen and it does look like on a relative basis with   everything that's happening the Japanese  yen is going to be one of the better Longs   um it is still not as good as the dollar the  dollar is really the number one currency but   on balance relatively speaking I do favor  Japanese Longs for the first time in a long   time this week next is the cad the cad took  out both targets and smashed through these   last week again I have the next Target down at  the 0.729 30 which is this low over here however  

the chances of these being respected again are  small I mean look at this move in the cad this   thing is also crashing I mean the Canadian  dollar is most likely coming down to the   0.68 10 let's say which is the low of the coffee  crash and in fact it's my belief and has been for   a while although I haven't actually stated it  yet but it's my belief a lot of these markets   including potentially U.S stock markets Australian  stock markets and the currencies we're looking at   here are likely all headed for their covered lows  now again please be aware that when you get these   major two standard deviation moves you very often  see a snapback so you need to time any trades that   you're taking next week and you need to take  into account the volatility these are going to   be difficult markets to trade and if you trade  them with tight stops you're going to be asking   for trouble in my opinion next is the Australian  dollar took out its targets at 0.66 180 the next   Target to the downside is 0 0.64070 I also think  the Australian dollar is eventually going to find   its way down to the previous bottom over here of  the covid low now if that's the case we have still   quite a long way to go in the dollar and even  though my longer term Target for the dxy has   been 120 we could even breach that by the looks  of things and the final currency here is the New   Zealand dollar again we smashed right through  the target the next Target in the New Zealand   dollar is in fact the covered low of 0.5466 that  is the next Target and we could get there pretty  

quickly so again there is some serious trouble in  the markets now heading into October we do have   currencies which are crashing the dollar is going  parabolic and at the end of the video when we look   at stock markets you will see they are right at  the point of potentially breaking down so I'm not   trying to scare you with this I'm not trying to  produce fear content to get clicks or click bait   or anything like this I do really believe that  there is serious trouble coming in the markets   and I just want to give you the information which  I believe to be true and proper okay so let's have   a look at the market starting with crude oil crude  oil was a market I actually highlighted two GMT   members on Friday I said I was looking at this and  we dropped five percent I mean this was big this   was at the same time we had that explosive rally  in the dollar we took out the Target and we do   have some very nice momentum in this market now so  any pullback in this Market next week is viewed as   an opportunity to look for shorts into the 77.65  and if we can break through here I'm looking down   towards the 74.23 so look for a pullback possibly  even a retest of the breakout over here I think   crude oil is going to be a good opportunity next  week next is pound dollar you can see the momentum   the capitulation after the break of the multi-year  1.14098 which I've highlighted for you recently  

and also in the dxy thread we did take out the  target I mean we went straight to the Target   highlighted last week the 1.0886 coming into this  week we have great momentum so I am looking for   further declines just remember when you if you're  trading a market crash which is very likely what   you're going to be doing here you should expect  the pullbacks to also be volatile in fact they   might be so volatile very often in Market crashes  pullbacks are so volatile that you actually   be scared to take them because it looks like the  Market's reversing so any pullback in pound dollar   is simply viewed as another opportunity with  a wider stop to start to look for shorts I'm   going to be looking down towards the next key  of supports the downside at the 1.0520 next is   New Zealand dollar we took out the target at the  0.59210 I do believe as I said that New Zealand  

dollar comes back now to the covered low so any  pullback in this market next week is simply going   to be viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts  down to the next care of support there is nothing   but air between where we currently are and the  0.5473 in New Zealand dollar next is dollar CAD   huge move up in dollar CAD recently and I am  looking for other advances in this market any   pullback next week is viewed as an opportunity to  look for bullish setups I'm going to be looking up   towards the 1.3715 those are my top three markets  heading to next week just remember the dollar is   getting very volatile so if you're trading any  of these dollar pairs I do recommend trading   them with a wide stop next is Aussie dollar we  did take out the target set last week at 0.66170  

heading into this week we do have momentum to  the downside any pullback and I'd like to see   some pullbacks first any pullback is simply viewed  as an opportunity to look for short positions and   I'm going to be looking down towards the next  care of support 0.6407 next is euro dollar we   are now accelerating away from the major breakout  of the 1.03434 any pullback next week we're right   near the low so any pullback is viewed as an  opportunity to look for shorts into the zero   point nine five nine six and if we break through  here I'm looking down to the 0.9413 those are all   of the dollar pairs that I'm looking at next week  I do favor pound dollar New Zealand dollar and US   dollar CAD out of those five okay so moving on  to the end pairs starting with pound Yen I want   to show you something on the monthly chart this is  serious for the pound I mean there's every chance   that this Market is coming back to the one two  five if not down to the 115 118. and what this   is showing is potentially a very significant  decline in the pound in the near future okay   so back to the four hour chart and looking at  the near term we do have strong momentum to   the downside I'd like to see a pullback in this  market and Forex volatility is picked up across   the board it's not just the dollar so if you are  trading these again I would advise wide stops any   pullback in this area and don't be surprised to  see a sharp or violent Snapback in some of these   markets but any pullback is still only viewed as  an opportunity to look for shorts into the 153.40   next is New Zealand Yen again this really is just  selling off I mean this is just like a waterfall   sell-off so any pullback it's hard to say where  it's going to pull back to because unlike over   here for example you know you have a tight bass  breaks out of here comes back and retests this   tight consolidation and goes this is so steep  that really you just have to wait wait for the   corrections to come and then start to trade them  after they've developed so any pullback in this   market is still viewed as an opportunity next  week to look for bearish entries down towards the   next key of support at the 80.15 and last but not  least out of all of these we have CAD Yen this is  

actually forming more structurally a nice Bear  Flag and any pullback towards the previous low   over here is viewed as an opportunity to start  to look for bearish entries and I'm going to   be looking down towards the next key of support  to the downside in the Target set at the 101.76   Bear in mind this also look at the volatility  here so you have to be very careful when trading   all of these markets I've said it a few times but  it's worth repeating especially for new Traders I   would suggest widening stops if you're looking  at trading these markets to accommodate that   volatility okay so we're gonna have a look at gold  silver and Bitcoin before moving on to U.S stocks   and having a look at how they're structured gold  last week tried to form a double bottom and this   was at a major key area of support and we did come  up and we actually confirm the double bottom over   here and then we broke down and we actually broke  down with momentum and I tweeted out on Twitter   that gold was attempting to put in a bottom in  this area but it failed pretty quickly and not   only did it fail but it failed with momentum which  is telling us that further declines are likely so   I am looking for any pullback in this market next  week as an opportunity to look for shorts into the   16 33.70 and if we can break through here there is  a big gap between these two levels remember what   I was saying to you recently for those of you who  follow these videos regularly I was saying to you   the gaps on these levels are widely in pound Frank  for example a lot of these markets if you go back   and look at the videos from a few weeks ago I was  telling you that these levels were widening and   that is signifying likely we're going to get an  increase in volatility in these markets that we're   looking at and boy did we have that in markets  like pound Frank which we looked at so you can   see there is a bigger Gap now and any break below  the 16 3370 I am looking down the 1575.72 and I   would not be surprised to see gold volatility  picking up as well next is silver now normally   we look at the gold silver ratio we haven't looked  at it today because it's really going nowhere it's   completely neutral so I favor gold shorts and  silver shorts both the same we are starting to   break out of this consolidation so any pullback  you can see break below previously with momentum   any pullback is views and opportunity to look for  shorts down towards the next care of support at   16.96 I also think silver could get quite volatile  to the downside next week as well last but not  

least we have Bitcoin here Bitcoin has just been  moving sideways kind of put up a bit of a heroic   resistance against Israeli in the dollar but if  stocks start to break down Bitcoin is going to   follow and I do think the longer term Target we've  had here which we've been shorting Bitcoin pretty   much all the way down to the 16492 is going to  be achieved in the near future so perhaps we   get a little bit of a bounce first next week but  any bounce is only viewed as an opportunity to   look for shorts in Bitcoin down to the 16 492.  okay so I want to wrap up the video with the S   P 500 and what you can see on here something we  cover in the free GMT course which is a bit of   a standard Benchmark in the hedge fund industry  is implied volatility ranges it takes ranges in   the S P 500 based off of the implied volatility of  the options market and what it basically says is   that these bounds provide roughly a 70 chance  of containing price and you can see on a monthly   basis it's traded in to its lower bound or its  lower range and what this means is that the   option Market is telling us next week there is a  30 chance of the market going lower and closing   essentially outside of this now if the market does  begin to actually crash those ranges are not going   to hold up however it does make me think and one  thing I've been talking about on Twitter is there   may be because of the steepness of the dollar  there may be and I'm just saying maybe because   who wants to call a top now in that parabolic  move in the dxy but there may be a window here   where the market pulls back a little bit next week  and as we see profit taking coming into the end of   the quarter because next week is the last week  of September and then we see maybe another week   or so of Correction into October before the next  leg down and the break of this low which actually   starts the next leg down in the s p 500. now I  did say to you I do think in a market crash we   could be coming down to the kovid low down here of  around 2000 2200 I've avoided saying this recently   just because I don't want to sound too ridiculous  I already gave out some crazy Targets in the dxy   and at the time I think a lot of people thought  I was crazy so I didn't want to go too crazy   with the stock targets but I do believe there's  a chance we come back down to these loads I'm not   saying it's going to happen next week but with a  stock market capitulation which as I've said to   you for a long time is on the cards in my opinion  in the second half of this year which we're in   right now I do believe we could be coming down to  that level so I do think what we're seeing in the   markets is serious I do think there is a chance  that maybe we trade into the low and over the   next week or two we have calls for a generational  bottom in stocks and it could be quite a sharp   pullback if it is going to be maybe for a week or  two but if that's the case and if we don't come   crashing through here next week and instead we  bounce because we've basically run out of room   in the monthly implied volatility range I do still  believe we ultimately roll over to the downside   and any bounce will be short-lived so that's what  I see very often the currency markets do precede   the stock markets very often we can see moves in  the currency markets preceding them and I think   that's what we're starting to see now it does set  up further declines in stocks and potentially a   crash next month in October it does also suggest  further upside in the dxy but as I said before if   this is going to happen there is going to be a lot  of volatility and if you're trading these markets   with tight stops you're probably going to get  whipped so if you are trading these just just be   aware of the market volatility that is increasing  and please use wider stops and sensible risk   management if you're getting involved in these  markets so that is it for me for this week guys   I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news as I said  I hope you don't think I'm doommongering here I   just really do see serious risks in the market as  it currently stands as always I hope you enjoyed   this video if you did please let me know by liking  sharing and subscribing a big thanks to everybody   who does that on a regular basis and a big thank  to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so   far I want to wish you all a fantastic weekend and  I want to wish you all the best in your trading   next week the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget to trade safely foreign

2022-09-26 22:21

Other news