Weekly Forex Forecast (24/10/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this  week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having   a fantastic weekend two major things happened  last week the first of which was the 10-year   and the three-month yield spread inverted  and this essentially starts the countdown   to a stock market capitulation and a recession  however as we come into the last week of October   if we can get through October and start to come  into November the risk of a capitulation in Q4   starts to diminish as we get closer and closer  to Christmas so I have mentioned previously that   I do think there is a capitulation coming down  the tracks but just bear in mind if we get out   of October and we start to trade into November  it will probably be pushed out into early next   year as opposed to Q4 this year and the second  extremely important thing that happened on Friday   was the bank of Japan intervention in the end and  to do this of course they sell dollars usually   they sell U.S treasuries which are denominated in  dollars and this time was very important because   For the First Time it looked as though based on  a Wall Street Journal article that the Federal   Reserve have for the first time coordinated an  effort with the bank of Japan to intervene in the   Yen so two extremely important events that took  place last week that we have to pay attention   to heading into next week and into next month  okay so if we have a quick look at the economic   calendar heading into next week There's a couple  of very important events coming up the first of   which is an interest rate decision out of Canada  so the cad pairs are unlikely to do anything until   Wednesday and then start to move I'm not looking  at the cad pairs personally next week because   they don't score very well they're currently  neutral but the canned pairs may be something   to get involved with after Wednesday and even  possibly next week once this is out the way we   might see the cad presenting good opportunities  in the Forex Market the second is the interest   rate decision out of the ECB on Thursday this  can have an impact on the dollar as well as the   Euro because of the relationship between the two  currencies and the other thing to pay attention   to is the Bank of Japan interest rate decision  on Friday now they have already intervened so   it's difficult to see what they can do in this  meeting which uh is any different from what's   already taken place so there's a good chance this  pass is fairly unevently however two other very   important pieces of data next week out of the  US the advanced GDP and also uh call pce now   the dollar when we go and look at the scorecards  and when we look at the actual technicals of the   dollar has been very correct and very choppy and  it may remain so until later on next week perhaps   on the interest rate decision out of the ECB based  on whatever is said or we could see a move start   to take place on the advanced GDP expected to come  out positive after a couple of negative prints   of GDP and don't forget GDP is a coincident  piece of data so if this comes out positive   you could very well see the dollar rally as the  Market discounts this and also on Friday another   Catalyst for a potential dollar rally if we get  core pce coming out slightly hotter than expected   as we've seen with recent inflation prints so  it's worth keeping these in mind because when we   go through the charts and the scores looking for  a catalyst to kick-start the dollar is something   you're going to have to be paying attention to  next week okay so let's look at the scorecards for   the major Forex pairs heading into next week and  as you can see the scorecards are screaming reduce   your risk the market conditions are not as good as  they could be therefore you'd want to be reducing   the amount of risk you're trading and waiting for  better conditions think of it like this the market   essentially has two moods and just as if it were a  person when it's in a good mood it gives you money   and when it's in a bad mood it takes your money  so if you knew somebody like that you would want   to be around that person when they're in a good  mood and when they're in a bad mood you would   want to avoid them now it's exactly the same with  the market when when the market is in this kind of   mood it's correct if it's choppy it's going to  try and take your money as opposed to give you   money so it's very very difficult to trade so you  reduce your risk and what we're seeing here is the   US dollar which is the strongest currency in the  scorecards is coming off of overbought for the   first time this very often signals a near-term  correction at the same time two of the weakest   commodity currencies from last week have reverted  and a lot of this uh happened throughout the week   but also because of that boj intervention with  the Federal Reserve coordination through the   Wall Street Journal is basically thrown markets  up in the air a little bit and until you start   to see the markets resolving or moving again these  conditions are likely to remain difficult to trade   so dollar coming off overboard for the first time  signals that we're probably going to see markets   choppy and corrective commodity currencies weak  and getting stronger in the scorecards the only   thing we have here actually is the Japanese  Yen this is the only macro signal saying that   we should look for further declines or further  advances any any of these currencies forwards   looking and that's the Japanese Yen which is weak  and getting weaker and even with that you have the   problem because you have the intervention now  normally intervention doesn't work and that's   because the boj hasn't coordinated it with the  FED like it did during the Asian crisis when   the boj intervened and so unless you start to  get Federal Reserve coordination with the bank   of Japan you're likely going to see the Japanese  Yen decline further so we go into next week with   the scorecards telling us be careful markets are  likely to be very choppy next week and at the same   time the one good trading signal we have from the  scorecards which is look for Yen shorts that comes   at a time when the boj are not only intervening  to strengthen the Yen but the Federal Reserve are   now actually taking steps to coordinate with them  and that is when you do see intervention start to   work so how then do we trade these kind of  scorecards where the markets are basically   signaling a near-term correctional contraction  well we basically just have to look at the nominal   scores here on a one-month forward-looking  basis because what this means is that we   should be expecting the dollar to reach new Highs  but there may be a short-term correction or a bit   of sideways movement first So based on this  although we don't have any outright Buy sell   signals heading into next week like we usually do  and that's quite a rare event I would be looking   mainly at the nominal markets here but being  patient and understanding they might not go until   the ECB on Thursday until the GDP or maybe even  the core pce reading on Friday so I am interested   still in US dollar again to the upside I am  interested in uh Aussie dollar to the downside New   Zealand dollar to the downside also interested in  Euro Yen to the upside you're Aussie to the upside   Euro New Zealand to the upside and also finally  looking at Frankie and to the upside Aussie Frank   to the downside New Zealand Frank to the downside  if you're concerned about the interventions from   the boj although as I say said they've already  taken place you don't have to get involved with   the Yen and heading into next week I do think as I  said it is a week to make sure you're only taking   the very best setups that you see because it is  going to be a week for patients and markets could   be subdued heading into those big events towards  the end of the week okay so let's have a look at   the individual currency starting with the dxy and  as you can see the dxy certainly over the last two   trading weeks and will on the daily chart here  just to get a bigger picture view over the last   two trading weeks the dollar has gone nowhere and  even as far back as four weeks ago we've pretty   much moved nowhere so if you struggled with your  trading over the last couple of weeks especially   if you're trading Forex pairs this is why a lack  of volatility brings a lack of opportunity and   the good news is usually the explosive periods  of volatility follow contractions but right now   we are in the midst of a correction in the dxy and  a lack of volatility and this is why exactly what   the scorecards are projecting to continue and why  we should be reducing our risk when we are looking   at trading uh especially the Forex Pairs and the  majors so overall we are coming off of overbought   for the first time with the dxy which is near-term  corrective however I am looking for the 11490 to   be achieved in the near future the question is  do we consolidate into the data this week and   then rally into the highs or do we actually make  a move into the highs and then perhaps sell off on   the news next week so these are the two scenarios  I'm going to be looking for but either way coming   into the November meeting from the Federal  Reserve it does now look like that is going   to be Peak hawkishness or Peak rate rises from the  Federal Reserve in November and after that they're   going to start to slow the pace so I am overall  dollar bullish but I do question now especially   with such a big move in the dollar so far whether  we're going to start seeing near-term correction   in the dollar certainly if the core pce inflation  data next week doesn't tip markets over the edge   then of course this would clear the way for a  near-term correction in the dollar and perhaps a   bear Market rally heading into November December  so I think next week could be a pivotal week   really for markets and that core pce data could  dictate the next move for markets into Christmas   next is the Euro now just as I believe the dollar  is heading to new highs I do think think that the   euro is heading to new lows whether we start to  move straight away or whether we correct a bit   first this is what we're going to have to watch  out for next week but I am looking for 0.95 740   and again those pieces of data next week the ECB  on Thursday and call PC data on Friday they're   likely to be pivotal because if they fail to  tip Equity markets over the edge and we do not   see Panic selling coming into the markets from  current levels this is going to diminish the risk   of capitulation in Q4 because as I said once we  get out of October into the November and December   months the risk of a Q4 capitulation diminishes so  really those pieces of data next week are going to   be very important and probably will point the way  for the rest of the markets into Christmas as I   said next is the pound as you can see this is very  very corrective and very choppy I do think this   resolves itself to the downside but again near  term we might just come up retest this and kind   of hang around in this area before coming down  so I am overall technically bearish on the pound   but relative to some of the other currencies it's  kind of bullish to neutral and as a result I'm not   actually looking at any pound opportunities this  week next is the Swiss franc now this is something   to really pay attention to because the Swiss franc  is one of the better Longs in the scorecards next   week and if we look at this technically yes we  are still really in a downtrend but we're lacking   momentum at the lows here and at the same time  we've put in a big engulfing candle at the end of   last week and we've also failed to break below the  previous low so this is not technically bullish   but with everything we're looking at compared  to a lot of the other markets and coupled with   a fairly decent relative score in the scorecards  I do think Swiss franc strengths could be one of   the few places we could look to profit from these  markets next week and Aussie Frank of New Zealand   Frank as a result are highlighted in gold as are  the dollar pairs here but just remember although   these are highlighted in Gold none of these are  actually very strong conviction trades because the   scorecards are pointing towards corrective markets  as opposed to outright explosive moves so really   something to keep in mind although these four  gold markets here are in my opinion the better   markets to trade next week next is the Yen we had  the intervention at the end of last week and again   the problem here is that it does look like the FED  are starting to coordinate somewhat with the bank   of Japan although I wouldn't say it's extremely  strong coordination because they're not pivoting   or anything like this they're really just kind of  Jawbone in and offering a little bit of rhetoric   to try and talk the dollar down a little bit as  opposed to really any strong actions to reduce   the value of the dollar so overall I am still  bearish on the Japanese Yen now the intervention   has taken place just like over here I do think  and the scorecards suggest we should be looking a   little bit lower and I would not be surprised even  if we come up a bit higher to see this start to   roll over and retest the lows so again outside of  Frank strength keep an eye AI on further declines   in the Japanese Yen next week especially now  the intervention has already taken place but   if you don't want to get involved in the empires  because of the volatility that's perfectly fine   next is the cad look at the cad again and just  look how corrective these markets have been very   very choppy opportunities drying up as volatility  dries up overall this is bearish can it come up a   little bit higher and then roll over yes it can we  also have the interest rate decision out of Canada   so I'd rather let that pass if you get a weakening  of the Canadian dollar based on that interest rate   decision then that might be a good opportunity  to start to look for further declines into the   lows and onto the 0.7088 for me they're probably  off the table completely next week this is why I   haven't put them in the list over here however  at some point I do think CAD short positions   will once again be a good opportunity and if you  are looking to trade the cad pairs I would wait   until the interest rate decision on Wednesday  takes place next is the Aussie now the Aussie   is gaining in the scorecards and normally I  wouldn't be interested in shorting a currency   which is doing that but because there is really no  other signals around I am looking for the declines   in the Aussie because technically speaking we are  testing the previous lows and if we are going to   get one more high in the dollar in the near future  even if it's not necessarily next week we might   just start to correct and turn next week but and  that's why I say we we probably need some patience   next week but I do think on balance this starts  to sell off and we start to decline towards the   previous lows and also the 0.61240. so overall  although patients may be required in the short  

term if the Aussie dollar corrects a little bit  more I do think the next move we should be paying   attention to is for Aussie declines because if you  buy the Aussie and it does start to turn on Monday   not only are you wrong but you miss the move  in the direction of the trend and last but not   least then we have the New Zealand dollar again  this is corrective and perhaps we come up and   retest previous highs over here however I am still  overall only focused on further declines even if I   have to wait a few days or a week even to get this  move because in the short term it's corrective   so again I don't want to be long the New Zealand  dollar because if it stores out after a single day   in reverses not only am I on the wrong side but  I missed the move down I'd rather be patient and   wait for a near-term correction and then start  to look for the market to roll over for shorts   in New Zealand dollar okay so let's have a look at  the markets themselves starting with crude oil now   crude oil is neutral in the commodity scorecards  and you can see it has been kind of choppy on   balance I do think we come down to the 79.99 so if  you wanted to trade this Market I don't think it's   one of the best although going into next week a  lot of the markets are kind of subpar however I   would be short on balance so any pullback in oil  is still viewed on balance as an opportunity to   look for declines into the 79.99 okay so the first  Forex pair we're looking at here is Aussie dollar   now on the intervention we did have a spike higher  but Aussie dollar is still really correcting and   you can see we are essentially having sold off  here we are in a new correction so any continued   pullback in Aussie dollar is on balance viewed  as an opportunity to look and bear in mind it   may actually correct a little bit higher because  the scorecards themselves are telling us that we   should be looking for continued correction any  continued pullback is viewed though next week   as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals  I'm going to be looking down towards 0.6124 next   is New Zealand dollar I do believe there's a very  very good chance we're coming down to the 0.5469   in this pair and this would coincide with a rally  to new highs in the dollar the question is for how   long do we correct in the dollar before we make  an attempt to Rally into new highs so in this   market I am looking for the declines but because  we're looking at a potential continued correction   short term I wouldn't be surprised to see it trade  into this High over here and start to stall out   and this would be an opportunity to start to look  for further declines into the 0.5469 but like with   all of these markets patience is likely required  heading into next week next is euro dollar now I   am looking for the declines in this market but  again where do we correct to do we even correct   all the way up into this area and we start to  test this high and this just becomes a big kind   of ABC correction and then we start to roll over  potentially so the best thing here to do is to be   reactive if the dollar or rather if euro dollar  starts to correct like this I'm simply looking   for a reversal to the downside perhaps from the  previous high and that would be the opportunity   in the sign that we are likely to see the next  leg down first of all to the previous low if   you want to be conservative and then on to the  zero point nine four one three and the final   dollar pair is US dollar Yen we came right to the  Target highlighted at the 151.64 last week before  

the intervention that was right where the boj  intervened coordinating with the FED however just   like the last time and previous interventions I  am looking still for a continuation to the upside   so any kind of consolidation here just like  over here I would be potentially looking for   further advances and I'm going to be looking back  towards the 151.64 I do believe that US dollar yen   is heading higher after this intervention mainly  because I do think we have one more High left in   the dollar at the very least before any correction  or any near-term reversal in the dollar next is   Aussie Frank I do believe we're coming down to  the 0.6208 so like these other mark markets the   question is for how long do we correct until  we start to roll over to the downside so any   continued pullback next week is still viewed only  as an opportunity to look for bearish reversals   I'm going to be looking down towards the next care  of support 0.6208 because of what we discussed   with the Swiss franc in and of itself coming off  those lows within daily engulfing candle these   two markets here are really something to keep  an eye on next week in what could otherwise be   quite a low volatility week in the Forex Majors  next is New Zealand Frank now New Zealand Franc   is essentially after a really big sell-off we just  have a corrective wave here and all we're looking   at is a larger consolidation or correction so I  am ultimately looking for this to resolve itself   to the downside taking out the previous lows as  the first Target any reversal in this market or   any continued pullback is simply viewed as an  opportunity to look for bearish reversals and   I'm going to be looking down towards the previous  low first and foremost and then on to the zero   point five four two four next is Frank Yen and  this is the final Frank pair and as you can see   the blue highlighted markets are markets which  have interest rate decisions next week so we've   got the boj with the Frank Yen and the US dollar  Pairs and also we have the ECB on Thursday with   Euro Aussie Euro New Zealand Euro Yen so just  bear that in mind because if you get involved   in a euro pair and it goes nowhere into Thursday  you know why it's because of the ECB meeting it's   waiting to move on that piece of data so in terms  of Frankie and I am looking potentially as the Yen   short signal is the only signal actually we're  getting this week I am looking for potential   further advances in this market and if we start to  stall out like this I would be looking for further   advances into the 151.83 finally here we have the  Euro pairs I am looking for further Corrections  

in these markets and any reversal and perhaps it  corrects into Thursday and then on ECB you get the   rally if that's the case I would be looking for  any break to the upside as an opportunity to start   to look for Longs into the 1.5839 Euro New Zealand  currently considering this as a correction so any   continued pullback in this market I am looking for  a reversal and any bullish reversal perhaps again   on Thursday on the ECB meeting that would be the  opportunity to start to look for Longs into the   1.7663 and finally we have Euro Yen now we traded  right into both of these targets and we finished   the week that was exactly where the intervention  was at the second target of the 147.97 going into   this week I will say this is my my least favorite  currency pair why because we have both the ECB and   the boj at the end of the week so this Market  may just do nothing into the end of the week   and then it could get very volatile at the end of  the week but overall I am looking for potentially   further advances and I'm just going to be looking  back towards the previous level of the 147.97 out   of all of these I do favor Aussie dollar New  Zealand dollar Aussie Frank New Zealand Franc   but I do think patience is required as they are  currently in Corrections and just be aware that   the Euro pairs may not move until the ECB meeting  on Thursday okay so wrapping up with gold silver   and Bitcoin starting with the gold silver ratio  the gold silver ratio is kind of going sideways   so I don't have any strong bias over gold or  silver next is gold now gold rallied on the   boj intervention because we had that sell-off  in the dollar and because the scorecards are   pointing towards near-term correction I would not  be surprised to see this kind of correcting next   week maybe even retest in the 167686 which is the  major breakout level we highlighted before but I   am looking whether we pull all the way back here  or whether we just consolidate into this area and   then roll over I do think we are coming down to  test the previous lows at least one final time as   the dxy rallies into the previous highs and so I  am bearish on this even though if it may require   a little bit of patience like I've said with all  of these markets so any correction is viewed as   an opportunity to look for shorts this is the more  conservative Target down here the previous low and   if we break this going to be looking down towards  the 15 75.72 but if you want to be conservative  

look for this previous low over here as a Target  next is silver again we got the rally off of the   boj intervention and the devaluation of the Dollar  near term any continued pullback is still viewed   as an opportunity to look for shorts although  these are not again strong conviction setups I   am looking down towards the previous low down  here and then again a second target down to   this previous low and the reason I'm looking at  previous lows here is because of the risk of a   correction in the dxy once we trade into the  highs but any of these lows down here you can   even coordinate this as you trade into the  highs in the dollar Index you know have a   look where silver is trading into and you could  kind of mix and match both of those to say okay   well the dollar looks like it's going to start to  reject from the highs therefore I'm going to put   my profits here or down here but the next gear of  support if we do come down here is the 1696. and   last but not least we have Bitcoin again another  very corrective market and I've just taken off   the gold tab because it's not a fantastic Market  anymore especially with everything else kind of   correcting consolidating including equities really  kind of lacking Direction recently as the dollar   has also lacked Direction so any pullback in  Bitcoin is still viewed as an opportunity overall   to look for shorts I've moved the targets up here  to the major previous low the 17 567.45 there   is a slight risk on the flip side of this this  could be a bigger a and then you have your a b   C correction and then you come up if markets  do get choppy and you come up and retest this   previous home and you've got a bigger a b c like  this and then you could find that Bitcoin starts   to roll over and retest the major low so I'm just  kind of showing you different scenario here but   overall as it currently stands I would be favoring  shorts in Bitcoin and of course that's what risk   management is for if you get involved in a short  in Bitcoin and you've got a stop loss and it comes   and stops you out and then does this then you  take the small loss and then you start to get   back involved once Bitcoin starts to reverse in  this area instead make sense so I am bearish on   bitcoin if it does run up and I'm involved in  a short in Bitcoin it runs up to previous highs   for a bigger ABC I'll just take the small loss  and I'll look to re-enter somewhere in this area   especially if we start to see the dollar turning  and making a run to new highs as well so that is   it for me for this week guys as always I hope you  enjoy enjoyed this video and if you did please   let me know by liking sharing and subscribing  a big thanks to everybody who does that on a   regular basis and a big thank you to everybody  who has subscribed to the channel so far if you   enjoyed today's video why not consider joining  us during the week where I share my charts as   well as the setups that I'm personally looking  at trading with members on a daily basis and   we also published the scorecards for over 75  markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership   by clicking the links in the description below  and also in the pinned comment below so thanks   for watching the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget straight safely foreign

2022-10-25 02:48

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