Weekly Forex Forecast (19/09/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's  weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a   great weekend I know many of you have been asking  for a while we have finally released a PDF guide   for the scorecards and you can find that in  the link in the description below and also   in the pinned comment and that guide will give  you all of the signals from the scorecards and   how to use them and for those of you who wish to  join us in the week as well I am now doing daily   analysis videos as well as daily score cards on  the GMT website so with that said let's get into   today's video okay so if we have a quick look at  the economic calendar you can see there isn't too   much going on on Monday and Tuesday it is really  this event on Wednesday 7 P.M out of the US which   is setting up to be the big one and there has been  talk of a potential 100 basis points hike from the   FED because of the CPI miss or the Miss in core  CPI last week that was what caused the dollar   to Rally last week and that fear of the Fed it  potentially raising 100 basis points instead   of the expected 75 basis points caused one of the  biggest sell-offs in quite a while in the S P 500   it was down roughly about five percent on the day  and that was an indication of what in my opinion   can take place If the Fed does decide to surprise  to the upside we already saw some Panic coming in   just on the premise that they might surprise to  the upside with 100 basis point hike and I think   if they really actually go for the 100 basis  points hike bearing in mind they haven't really   given any indication this time that they're going  to unlike in previous times when they were going   to hike 50 and they leaked out beforehand that  they were looking at 75 they've really just been   quiet about this and that's why in my opinion  the Federal Reserve are most likely going to go   75 basis points and we could even see when we  look at the dxy if that happens that could be   the Catalyst for a little bit of a correction  from the current levels in dxy now again I'm   just giving you my opinion I do not know what the  FED are going to do on Wednesday I just believe a   75 basis point height is more likely because if  the FED especially after getting respect from   the markets at Jackson Hole which they did If  the Fed then decides to go and surprise to the   upside really without saying anything at all I  do believe that would be an unnecessary step and   actually counterproductive to their overall goals  of reducing inflation whilst also preventing major   economic contraction so I am looking for a 75  basis points hike on Wednesday however just bear   in mind if you get involved in the markets before  then you are taking a higher risk as is always the   case with interest rate decisions and the markets  themselves are probably going to do nothing   or very very little nothing significant between  Monday and Wednesday so just bear that in mind not   a great idea in my opinion to get involved in lots  of different trades before Wednesday day because   they're likely to just correct and so the final  thing really are the other interest rate decisions   on Thursday out of Switzerland out of the UK and  also out of Japan so next week is setting up to be   a very very big week so whether you want to play  this before the interest rate decisions or after   take more risk or less risk it's really up to you  however just bear in mind these events are taking   place and are likely to dominate next week okay so  let's have a look at the scorecards for the majors   heading into next week and the first thing to  note is the Euro and the dollar are still on the   positive side of the scorecards just as they were  previously and what was this telling us over here   avoid dollar and Euro pairs generally speaking  especially euro dollar because that pair is most   likely going to just correct and what happened  that page is corrected even the dollar itself   yes we got a rally from CPI but it really didn't  go anywhere after that and that Still Remains the   case heading to this week however just remember  interest rates take preference over the scorecards   why because scorecards are made up from data  economic data and when we have an interest rate   decision the economic data can change so it can  change the scores so the interest rate decision   has to take preference over the scores the  scorecard cannot predict whether pal is going to   raise 75 or 100 basis points so the first thing to  note is that Euro and the dollar pairs are still   telling us to be patient and that overall Market  opportunities are somewhat drying up compared to   when these are on opposite sides of the scorecards  however I would expect that to change on Wednesday   when we have fomc to shake the scorecards up and  for the markets to find a new sense of direction   whether that be higher or lower the next thing  to note is the pound is at -2 and the New Zealand   dollar isn't minus two so I do like both of  these for shorts however I prefer the New Zealand   because this actually has some bearish momentum  whereas the pound is actually previously coming   off of uh I believe oversold levels actually  it's just kind of pulled back a little bit but   this is not bullish this just simply means it's  not as bearish as say New Zealand dollar at minus   two with some momentum from the scorecards from  last week the Swiss franc is still the best Long   play and I do prefer Swiss franc pairs next week  but just bear in mind we have the interest rate   decision out of Switzerland where they're expected  to raise rates and to the downside the Japanese   yen is sitting at minus four however those who  signed up for the daily videos will know the daily   scorecards actually told us to cover Japanese  shorts on Thursday and so heading to this week   yes this is oversold but I'm giving you the heads  up that I'm not going to be short in Japanese Yen   and I think really with the Yen pairs we need  to wait and see what takes place after frmc and   also the bank of Japan meeting on Thursday so it  could be a tricky week next week I think we need   patience heading into next week however we do have  a plan and I'm going to share that with you in   this video okay so starting with the dxy because  this is very important going into next week many   of you know I did post on Twitter that I am I'm a  dollar Ball but I did think that the dollar could   struggle above the 109.77 I've had this on here  for at least a week and maybe a couple of weeks   and I did note on this day that I believe the  dollar was going to put in a near-term top but   not the top and we have put in a top since then  we failed to break above the highs since I tweeted   that the thing is though going into frmc next week  If the Fed were to raise 100 basis points you are   in my opinion going to see the dollar spike in  higher break into new highs and this near-term   top will have finished but I do still see a path  for continued dollar correction now again I'm not   making any predictions before fomc because we're  only going to know this after fomc takes place   but if the FED comes out and raises only 75 basis  points despite the fact this is expected because   we had such a panic over the hundred basis points  potential rate hike from the core CPI Miss I do   see a path where traders who Panic bought over  here or who got involved over here could start   to pull their positions because some of this could  be a hedge don't forget people do hedge equities   with dollar long positions that could unwind and  that could actually be the catalyst for a bigger   decline towards 106 105. again I'm not making a  call because I don't know what's going to happen   in frmc but I'm just highlighting how I could  Envision a catalyst taking place in order to   help the dollar correct or to ease whether it goes  high or low it doesn't really matter because we   can trade both ways we are going to be looking  at pairs for dollar strength post the interest   rate decision and also there's a couple of pairs  here if we do get a weaker dollar from fomc so I'd   rather be reactive next week if you are trading  this short term but just conversationally I do   see a window of opportunity here for a bigger  dxy correction If the Fed only goes 75 basis   points and their rhetoric is not too harsh but  again let's see what Wednesday brings next is   the Euro now the Euro of course is going to be  dictated next week by firm c as well because the   Euro makes up 57 of the dollar Index and just like  the dxy If the Fed comes out only raises 75 basis   points and at the same time they're not as porkish  perhaps as they were at Jackson Hole but I still   expect them to be quite hawkish I don't expect  a dovish pivot or anything like that but just if   they come out with 75 basis points and they're not  as hawkish as people expected I do think we could   see a short-term relief rally in the Euro that  is not a reversal that would simply be a deeper   correction before at some point the next leg down  I am still overall bearish on the Euro and I am   overall bullish on the dxy again I'm just giving  you a potential path for near-term Euro strength   and a near-term correction in the dxy next is the  pound the pound is extremely bearish and we took   out the 1.1450 there actually isn't any level down  below here on this chart there is no more data   which goes back below this level we do have data  for the levels on say pound dollar to the downside   so we'll look at those levels but I haven't added  a level down here just yet because there is no   data on the pound I am still very bearish on the  pound again it wouldn't surprise me if the dxy   corrected perhaps on a less hawkish than expected  fed but that would just simply be the opportunity   to short the pound at a better price in my opinion  over the next few weeks so again we really need to   wait until from C takes place to see what's next  for the pound next is the Swiss franc this is the   top long position going into next week and in  fact my favorite markets are pound Frank to the   downside New Zealand Frank to the downside Aussie  Frank to the downside the problem is this is also   going to be affected or these markets are going to  be affected by firm C because the dollar affects   all of the currencies in terms of risk on risk  off however we also have an interest rate decision   out of Switzerland on Thursday so it may be tricky  to get involved with these if you are getting   involved before the interest rate decisions take  place best to have wider stops if that's what you   want to do otherwise we're going to look for these  opportunities after the interest rate decisions   take place towards the end of next week next is  the Japanese Yen now the Japanese Yen has been   very bearish and as we see in the major scorecard  for next week it is still oversold however as I   said those who signed up for the daily videos will  know on Thursday which was this day right here   they did tell us to cover Japanese Yen shorts and  we actually gapped up the very next day 1.32 it  

was actually up nearly 1.5 so I'm just again  giving you guys the heads up who are watching   just the weekly Forex forecast I am not going to  be involved in shorting the end despite the fact   it's at -4 and If the Fed comes out overly hawkish  next week or unexpectedly raises 100 basis points   I believe you're going to see problems in the  stock market I think we could see a very big   sell-off and this is going to likely see a flight  safety in the Japanese Yen so with a risk of frmc   next week causing a bigger risk-off event in the  stock markets it would be risky before fomc to   get involved in any Japanese Yen shorts and as  I said I'm off the JPY shorts until after next   week then we can look at those again next is the  Canadian dollar we did have a big sell-off and the   Canadian dollar has been kind of choppy in fact  on a relative basis it's been one of the best   better to trade to the long side why because all  of the other markets have been selling off hard   and this was kind of choppy in the scorecards it  was telling us it was sort of bullish to neutral   and so therefore I think last week it was even  just about bullish uh plus two as a score but   you can see there was with the risk off that  came into the markets with all selling off   this is finally looks like it's getting a bit  of momentum to the downside and that's why CAD   positions are off the table and in fact we did  see a weakening in the scorecards as well partly   because of the outlook for oil so going into next  week I'm not really interested in the cad pairs if   you are trading them I would only be looking for  shorts on balance I wouldn't be looking at CAD   long positions anymore next is the Australian  dollar we came down took out the target almost   to the pivot 0.66890 again this is likely to be  dictated by frmc although the Australian dollar   isn't in the dxy index it is sensitive the most  sensitive to risk-off events and if we start to   see US Stocks selling off because the FED come  out to hawkish then the Australian dollar is   going to be affected to the downside and we will  have a quick look at the stock markets in the US   at the end of this video and you will see that it  does not look pretty and I will show you exactly   why I think markets could be at risk real risk  next week of selling off quite hard on frmc and   last but not least we have New Zealand dollar  again this is going to be affected purely by   the risk on risk-off nature of what takes place  around frmc next week I am bearish overall and if   stocks continue to sell off in the US next week  this is going to add weight to not just Aussie   shorts but also New Zealand shorts perhaps we  pull back first and then on frmc we start seeing   New Zealand selling off a week into the end of the  week that would be great so I do like New Zealand   shorts heading into next week okay so let's have  a look at the markets themselves head into next   week crude oil has been a short highlight in  previous videos we did have a nice pullback   and we started to break lower here you can see  momentum coming in and we're starting to flag so   any continued correction in crude oil is still  viewed as an opportunity to look for further   declines into the 80.62 next is pound Frank we  have come down quite a bit here and we're lacking   some momentum impound Frank so ideally what I'd  like to see in pound Frank is any pullback first   perhaps into Wednesday or maybe even into Thursday  if we can pull back like this and then on frmc or   on the Swiss franc interest rate decision we get  a sell-off like this which will be Swiss franc   strength I'm only interested in trading these  three markets on Swiss franc strength if we get   a sell-off for whatever reason in the Swiss franc  on the interest rate decision I just won't trade   it but if we start see this breaking down we have  the interest rate decision we get momentum coming   in I'm going to look for a pullback and I'm going  to be looking for shorts into the 1.0863 next is  

New Zealand Frank we came down took out the target  set in this market this was a really good short   from last week going into this week there are some  very minor Targets in this area but I've purposely   only put the next major support on so you can see  visually where we're at in New Zealand Swiss franc   this is the kovid low down here when the markets  crashed during the covered pandemic and it just   goes to show this is an entire area of volatility  historically and if we start to trade into this   we could actually see quite a bit sell off in  New Zealand Frank we could see the next moves   to the downside in New Zealand Frank coming  with momentum and they could be pretty steep   so any pullback again perhaps we correct into  the interest rate decision because that often   takes place any pullback and then a breakdown  on Swiss franc strength from the interest rate   decision maybe fomc I'm going to be looking at  any pullback to look for shorts down towards the   previous lows let's say as well you could look  for a conservative Target at the 56.50 next week   but as you can see that's just the psychological  level here there is really nothing but air once   we start to break lower all the way down to the  0.5300 and actually that kind of Gap in the levels   there is suggestive of quite a serious risk-off  move potentially coming in New Zealand Frank next   is Aussie Frank this was another really nice move  from last week we came down this was highlighted   as one of the best shorts last week we came very  close to the next Target so what I would like   to see is we've already started to pull back from  this any continued correction taking out previous   highs over in this area that would be fantastic  as it gives us a nice move down towards the next   Target any continued correction into the interest  rate decision or Wednesday Thursday I'm going to   be looking for Frank strength from those key  events and any breakdown any momentum to the   downside say we get risk off from fomc and you  see the Frank outperforming that would be an   opportunity to look for shorts into the 0.6416  don't forget though you have the Swiss franc   interest rate decision on Thursday as well so any  trades before that should be used with the wider   stop and do carry more risk okay so let's have a  look next at the dollar pairs because after the   Swiss franc pays the dollar is the next best  long however the difficulty with next week is   the two best long trades are both interest rates  decision weeks as well so in terms of euro dollar   in terms of Aussie dollar New Zealand dollar and  pound dollar I'm only interested in trading these   four if we get dollar strength from fomc so what  I'd be looking for is a correction in euro dollar   into fomc and then once the event takes place  if we get a breakdown like this with momentum   as often happens when you have these big events  that's your opportunity to start to look for a   pullback I'm going to be looking for shorts into  the zero points 9860. next is Aussie dollar we  

did come and take out the target at the 0.668  for last week again heading into this week what   I'd like to see in this market is any pullback  into Wednesday and then a break lower on the XY   strength this will be a market I will look for  shorts down to the 0.6617 next is New Zealand   dollar now we did take out the target set at  0.60150 and once again I know this looks almost   comical this chart because it is ridiculous but  the next significant area to the downside or the   significant support is the 0.54730 look at this  and this is because this was all a range covered   with the massive amount of volatility during the  covid crash so this is one of the things that   tells me especially with New Zealand dollar being  a risk of currency this is a little bit worrying   in terms of the equity market and also it does  tell me we could still have some serious dollar   strength to come again does that happen after a  short relief rally first or did the FED actually   start breaking something either by unexpectedly  raising 100 basis points or perhaps even the 75   basis points at this point is a little bit too  much especially considering where we are compared   to previous Cycles we've actually already hiked  a lot higher than previously when things started   to break so again this is confirmation that I do  think we have more dollar strength to come and as   I've always said that dollar strength is probably  going to come in a stock market capitulation the   question is whether we get a near-term correction  the dxy or not and we're going to likely find out   next week and the final dollar pair if we get  dollar strength from fomc that I'm going to be   looking to trade is pound dollar we did take out  the targets at the 1.1411 and again this is just   ridiculous how long I mean it's not as ridiculous  as the New Zealand pairs but this is still a very   very large gap to next year of support and these  can always run these very quickly so any pullback   in pound dollar next week into fomc and then  a sell-off on frmc because of dollar strength   that's the opportunity to look for shorts in this  market overall down to the 1.0886 if you want to  

take some psychological levels on the way down  you can and the final Forex Market we're going   to look at is US dollar Franc we have interest  rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday for   these pairs but if we see the US dollar correcting  and then on frmc the opposite of what the plan a   essentially is here with euro dollar Aussie dollar  New Zealand dollar pound dollar and remember this   is plan a because that's what the scorecards  are showing a bigger dxy correction is just   my opinion I don't trade my opinions I trade the  scores and the scores are pointing still towards   dollar strength so any continued correction but  then if we get unexpectedly dollar weakness and   we start to break out especially if we're going  to hike on Thursday look for a pullback and look   for further declines into the 0.9470 so this is  only a backup plan essentially if we get dollar   weakness instead of dollar strength in which case  I'll be looking at these four markets here okay so   wrapping up with gold silver and Bitcoin and we're  also going to have a look at the U.S stock market   the gold silver ratio has finally flipped we've  been bullish on this for quite a while and because   I've been short recently gold and silver apart  from last week when we took them off at the best   list but they have been best shorts and silver  was highlighted as the best short previously in   videos in weekly Forex forecast videos and it  was the market which underperformed we've been   preferencing silver shorts pretty much all the  way up this has now changed and as the gold silver   ratio is coming down and with momentum it means  going into next week it sets us up really nicely   for fomc because it is giving us the opportunity  if the dollar is strong from fomc to short gold   and if the dollar weakens from frmc or looks like  it's going to correct you don't have to short   the dollar and pick the high you can actually go  along something like silver or other commodities   and also we can also look at the same way Bitcoin  if we have dollar strength from frnc I'll be   interested in shorting Bitcoin so just like with  the Forex pairs we can be reactive instead of   predictive from fomc on Wednesday if the dollar is  strong I'll be looking for gold and Bitcoin shorts   and if we have a reversal in the dollar because of  reasons discussed or potential reasons discussed   in this video at the beginning then I'd be looking  for silver long positions okay so starting with   gold I've been short and we've been looking for  short positions in gold all the way down and   we finally took out the 1676.87 which has been a  longer term Target for a while this was the major   previous low we looked at in last week's video  however as it currently stands we are structured   for a bear flag and the higher probability is for  further declines here at least into the lows and   possibly onto the 1633 so unless we actually  see a reversal in Gold I am still bearish and   if we get a bullish reaction from the Dollar on  fomc I'm going to be looking for a sell-off like   this and if you want to be extra safe when you're  trading around frmc gold and silver are good for   this because they don't react as much as some  of the dollar currency pairs do when you have   these big events so any breakdown on frmc on  Wednesday this is going to be probably one of   my go-to opportunities to look for shorts down  to the 16 33.70 next is silver now I am overall   still bullish on Silver because don't forget  we're sitting below the major breakout level   of the 21.420 and if we do have a big risk-off  move in U.S stocks silver is going to get smashed   however if that fails to materialize next week and  for whatever reason we get a relief rally and we   start to see the dollar correcting this would  be a decent Market to look at because we are   forming a bear a bull flag sorry not a Bear Flag  a ball flag with very very strong momentum and any   continued Corrections say into Wednesday and then  a breakout on frmc that's going to set up a nice   opportunity to look for Longs for the rest of the  week into the 20.50 so again you can be reactive  

not predictive of frmc next week if you don't want  to try and work out in advance or get involved in   advance you don't have to and I do think gold and  silver actually are set up this week to perfectly   play a reactive opportunity in fomc after  Wednesday last but not least we have Bitcoin now   Bitcoin had a very very strong sell-off and I'm  only interested in being short Bitcoin if we get   a relief Rally or we get a near-term correction in  the dxy because of whatever is said on Wednesday   out of FMC if that happens and we start to move  higher I'm just going to leave Bitcoin I'm only   interested in shorts so any correction into fomc  that is going to be the opportunity to look for   a sell-off in Bitcoin on Wednesday and if that  happens I'm going to be looking for a correction   or a pullback to look for shorts into the 1756  7.45 which is the previous major low but I am   overall looking on to the long-term Target which  I've had down here for a while at the 16 492 okay   so I want to wrap up the video with U.S stocks  and I want to just explain to you where I am   on the U.S stock market I haven't added them in  every video but I have been keeping you updated   all on the way of what I believe is happened  in the stock market and I did say to you guys   that this move up in my opinion was not a market  and none of the data was showing that this was a   new bull market the data has always been showing  that this was just a bear Market bounce and we did   start to roll over and now we're sitting at the  387 3.32 going into frmc my overall outlook for   U.S stocks is not good it is the same My overall  Outlook as it has been in March when I tweeted all   the way back in March this was before the yield  curve inverted that I believe a global recession   is incoming and we are likely going to have a  stock market capitulation in the near future   and I earmarked the second half of this year for  a potential capitulation obviously we haven't had   that yet but I do think if the FED goes too hard  on Wednesday I think we could potentially start   to see something break and alternatively If the  Fed does come out slightly less hawkish and they   only raise 75 basis points and we get a deeper  correction in the dollar Index that is probably at   best only going to lead to a relief rally perhaps  towards the fort 177.51 before we do start the  

next leg down so I just want to clarify with you  guys I'm not bearish on the dollar and I'm not   bullish on stocks when I talk about a bigger  dxy correction that is all I'm talking about   a correction near term before a steeper sell-off  so those are the two scenarios that I'm looking at   currently and we will see from Wednesday whether  we get a near-term correction before the next leg   down or whether pal really does go too hard and  things begin to break over the next few weeks   in stocks so that is it for me for this week guys  for everybody who's joined the daily videos on the   getmetrading.com website I will of course be with  you every day throughout this next week we'll be   running the data beforehand and also after fomc to  see exactly what's going on for those of you just   watching the weekly Forex forecast that is what  I see heading into next week and those are the   short-term plays I'm going to be looking at post  fomc as always I hope you enjoyed this video and   if you did please let me know by liking sharing  and subscribing a big thank you to everybody who   does that on a regular basis and a big thank you  to everybody who has subscribed to the channel   so far I want to wish you a fantastic weekend  and I want to wish you all the best in your   trading next week the only thing left to say  is take care and don't forget to trade safely

2022-09-22 09:21

Other news