Weekly Forex Forecast (17/10/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's  weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having   a great weekend just before we start the video a  number of you have been asking us so yes because   we have such faith in our systematic data-driven  process we are launching a two-week free trial   for every single person watching this video  and everybody who wants to check out the GMT   membership absolutely risk-free so if you'd like  to join me on a daily basis where I go through   scorecards for over 75 markets with members and  do daily videos as well as get access to tutorial   videos in the tutorial section of the membership  area click on the link in the description below   this video and in the pinned comment for more  information okay so let's have a quick look   at the economic calendar and it's this key piece  of data from last week is the U.S inflation data   and on a month-on-month basis which is the most  important metric here it actually came out hotter   than expected and at a faster rate than it was  in the previous month and core CPI came out it   was expected to fall it came out at the same rate  weight as it was last month this is not what the   Federal Reserve wants to see and when you take  into account the federal reserve's dual Mandate   of unemployment and inflation what we're seeing is  based on the previous non-farm payrolls data we're   seeing a strong labor market and we're seeing  higher than expected inflation still persistent   inflation what this means is the Fed are going to  continue on their path of being extremely hawkish   to control inflation and they may even need to  get a little bit more hawkish because it looks   like more needs to be done to get inflation down  and historically they actually need to get federal   funds rate above core CPI which they're not  even close to doing yet so don't be surprised   to see that terminal rate actually go up from the  Federal Reserve if we jump head to this week we do   have some CPI data and also some GDP data out of  China some more CPI data out of the UK and out of   Canada however there is nothing we really need  to pay attention to in terms of major economic   events taking place this week this will all bring  employment data bring volatility into the markets   but it's nothing we need to plan our trades around  for in the short term next week if we look at the   scores for the coming week we can see the US  dollar is still the number one currency in town   in the scores and the top markets that I'm going  to be looking for this week are dollar long plays   vis-a-vis the Australian dollar and the Japanese  Yen specifically why not the New Zealand dollar   even though the New Zealand dollar is rated  as the weakest because as you can see the New   Zealand dollar came off of oversold for the first  time this usually indicates a near-term bottom so   I wouldn't be bullish on the New Zealand dollar  I do think we could still see further declines   but heading into next week I think there are  better currencies to show and that is namely the   Australian dollar and the Japanese Yen those are  my two favorite shorts going into next week and   aside from shorting those versus the US dollar  I am also going to be looking in today's video   at aussiefrank to the downside Frankie Yen to the  upside I'm also going to be looking at Euro Yen to   the upside and Euro Aussie to the upside and we  can tentatively look at pound Yen to the upside   and also pound Aussie to the upside as well pound  pairs are not highlighted as my favorite plays   just because it only scores one it does have a  good net change but it only scores one which is   kind of bullish to neutral so we will look at  them but pound pairs are not highlighted this   week as the top markets to be looking to trade  and there is also a little bit of ongoing risk   with what's going on in the UK around the bond  market if you are trading the pound Pairs and   when we go and look at the Yen pairs as well just  bear in mind the yen is getting so weak that you   do potentially run the risk of boj intervention in  the Japanese Yen they did it previously and we're   approaching levels in the end where they could  do it again so I am interested in Yen shorts   next week but if you're a little bit worried  about Yen intervention you've got two options   you can can take a wider stop to make sure if the  boj does intervene you only take a loss within the   bounds of acceptability so you're not basically  getting smashed through a very very tight stop-on   intervention you know you take a couple of weeks  ATR or something and the boj intervenes and you   lose you know a week's ATR big deal it's you  know it's half of your overall risk but if   you're trading the Japanese Yen with tight stops  you could actually find yourself on the wrong   side of a boj intervention so nothing to panic  about but you must risk managing pairs correctly   take wider stops if there is the potential for  increased volatility in the Japanese Yen and you   would like to trade it if not you can just stick  to the Aussie pairs if you are in fact concerned   about boj intervention next week because don't  forget for those of you new to trading if the boj   intervenes it will do so in order to increase the  value or the strength of the Japanese Yen okay so   let's have a look at the individual currencies  here before moving on to the markets themselves   starts with the dollar and the dollar is the only  currency as I've been highlighting in previous   weekly Forex forecast videos it's the only  currency in a full-blown bull market and yes we   had a little bit of a dip down last week but this  is not a reversal the market is just correct in   a little bit and the high probability move in the  dxy in the near term is to come back to New highs   and also up to the 114.90 so I am bullish on the  dollar any kind of pullback in this area is simply   viewed just as that as an opportunity to get long  once again into the highs and into the 114.90 next   is the Euro the euro is in a downtrend it's below  the seven year breakout and it's below the four   year breakout and I am still bearish overall on  the Euro but as you can see it's kind of been   correcting and in last week's video we looked  at some Euro long trades and you can see they   actually worked quite well even though the euro is  in a downtrend why because it's in a downtrend but   it's kind of corrective and the macro scorecards  they're 4 looking they picked up on that ahead of   last week and they told us and they're telling  us again we can look at potentially long Euro   positions vis-a-vis the Aussie for example Visa  vdn so despite the fact this is in a downtrend   on a forwards looking basis it does like look like  the euro is set to outperform some of these other   currencies so I wouldn't be outright bullish  on the Euro I do favor those dollar long plays   still but I am interested in Euro long plays this  week vis-a-vis the Aussie and the Yen especially   next is the pound again not an outright bullish  currency however we are projected to see some   relative strength and certainly versus the Yen  and also the Aussie we're going to be looking at   those markets in today's video I will be keeping  an eye on those next week to see if there's any   long opportunities in pound Aussie and pound Yen  the recent volatility we've seen has been because   of this ongoing situation between the government  and the bank of England we saw the bank of England   stepping in to essentially save the Pension funds  and this is what's caused all this whip sore and   volatility in the pound however it does look like  the UK government has now reversed the policies   that they were looking to enact and this has put  a little bit of support underneath the pound but   because of the ongoing volatility and because  of the fact it's only bullish to neutral in the   scorecards these are not highlighted as the best  opportunities next week I do favor these other six   markets next week but I do think we could see  some near-term relative strength in the pound   next is the Swiss franc again not really bullish  but kind of technically neutral we are coming down   I wouldn't be surprised he has come down take  out the lows and we may even bounce here and on   a relative basis if this currency Market can hold  this kind of range which it's been in I wouldn't   be surprised to see the Swiss franc outperforming  and the scorecards are telling us to look ahead   and be bullish on the Swiss franc relative to  some of these other currencies so we will be   looking at Frankie and also Aussie Frank next is  the Japanese Yen we did take out the target set   to the downside at 0.0 0.0670 and midweek when  we do these scores with members the scorecards   absolutely nailed the year and it got us on the  long side of the Yen just in time and then it   got us out of the Yen Longs just in time and now  it's actually projecting to look for Yen short   position so I do favor Yen shorts to the downside  however I did mention the fact that we could have   Bank of Japan intervention and when we go and look  at the US dollar Yen you will see this I mean this   was the last time you see this candle here on the  daily yes it failed and any continued intervention   from the bank of Japan is again likely to fail  until you start to see some coordination for   example with the US whereby the Federal Reserve  starts to weaken the dollar and that's going to   help any intervention efforts from the bank of  Japan well we've just discussed the fact that   the Federal Reserve are very very unlikely to  Pivot or start to look to devalue the dollar index   in any way why because this is going to exacerbate  their inflation problem so any help from the US in   devaluing the US dollar to help the boj with its  intervention and to increase the value of the yen   is likely to fail but you may get some short-term  whips or and that's why I say if you are shorting   the Yen there's nothing wrong with shorting it but  you do want to be taking wider stops so if the boj   does intervene even if it fails you don't want  to see the market blast through your very tight   stop and you end up losing more money than you  actually risked on your initial stop loss next   is the card the card is kind of grinding to  the downside we don't really have any outright   signals on the cad from the scorecard so overall  I do favor CAD shorts and if you are looking to   trade the cad pairs I am looking for the declines  I wouldn't belong the cad but I think there are   better markets this week to short namely the uh  Aussie and the end pairs next is the Australian   dollar we took out the target to the downside at  0.62150 now we are approaching the 0.61240 but  

look at where we go when we break below this the  next stop for the Australian dollar is the 0.5511   and there is nothing but air between these levels  because this was a fast market during the covid   crash I do think we're coming back down to the  kovid lows here and in fact in stock markets and   other markets I think there are a lot of markets  which are heading back to their covered loads that   might sound a little bit extreme as we currently  see it but I think you will find that a number   of markets are actually in fact heading back to  covered lows in the near future so I am interested   in Aussie shorts and if you can get involved in  Aussie pairs somewhere at the beginning of the   week this could be a market you might want to  look to hold for a number of weeks because once   we break the 0.61240 we could be coming down to  the 0.5511 pretty quickly like we did last time   and finally we have the New Zealand dollar we are  approaching the 0.54660 and this is not a bullish  

Market just because it came off of oversold for  the first time doesn't mean I'm looking to buy   it what it means is if you've been short the New  Zealand dollar and we've been short for a while   here you want to be looking at booking profits  on your shorts near term until the New Zealand   dollar starts to re-accelerate to the downside now  if I zoom out here for you we are approaching the   kovid low in the New Zealand dollar and once we  break this maybe we get a near-term bounce and   that is what kind of holds the New Zealand up  a little bit technically here but once we break   this I do think we continue lower and not only  will this continue lower but as I said previously   that Aussie currency is probably heading back to  its covered lows and possibly even lower still   so we are approaching some big levels here in the  currency markets although I favor Aussie and Yen   shorts this week don't sleep on New Zealand shorts  because they're probably going to be coming back   into the scorecards over the next week or so okay  so let's look at the markets themselves starting   with crude oil now crude oil is a market I analyze  every single week and I don't have a strong bias   on crude oil heading into this week it is kind  of neutral in scorecards and so I do think there   are better markets to trade however on balance I  would be looking for the declines as the slightly   higher probability play next week any pullback in  crude oil if you do want to trade this is viewed   in my opinion simply as an opportunity to look  for bearish setups and I'm going to be looking   down towards the 79.99 so again I reiterate I am  slightly bearish on crude oil but I don't have a   very very strong bias on it I am kind of neutral  overall and I think there are better markets to   trade outside of crude oil next week next is euro  dollar like crude oil I put euro dollar into the   weekly Forex forecast video every single week  by popular demand because it is a widely traded   currency pair however note that last week the  forwards looking macro scorecards were telling   us to look at eurolong's vis-a-vis let's say the  Australian dollar which worked out quite nicely   last week but it was warning us that euro dollar  was likely to correct to be choppy and to range   why because both the Euro and the dollar were  strong and look at the lack of volatility last   week now you could have saved yourself a headache  last week by simply trading the best scoring   currency versus some of the weakest scoring  currencies on a one-month forward-looking basis   and you had some explosive moves so the scorecards  are not just putting us in front of the best moves   on a forward-looking basis but they're attempting  to keep us out and they do so very successfully   most of the time keeping us out of these choppy  markets where they barely move so heading into   next week on balance I do favor further declines  in this market it isn't a downtrend and on a   one-month forward-looking basis the scorecards  are actually telling us that the dxy is likely   to outperform the euro even though the euro is  quite strong itself so any pullback is still   only viewed as an opportunity to look for further  declines down towards 0.9413 like crude oil though   I do think there are better markets to trade next  week okay so the first of my top markets head into   next week which I'm going to be keeping an eye  on looking for trading opportunities as Aussie   dollar we took out the Target and finished the  week almost to the point at this target head into   next week I know this chart looks a bit squashed  but it's because of the distance between this   Target and this target I've had to zoom out a  little bit so I am looking for the 0.6124 next   and because we're quite close to it I'd like to  see a pullback like this first heading into the   beat start of the week if we can pull back this is  going to be the opportunity to start to look for   bearish setups into the 0.6124 but as I said at  the start of the video I think this is coming down   to its covered lows and we could be coming down  quite quickly once we break the 0.6124 perhaps   over the next few weeks down to the 0.5507 so keep  Aussie Dollar on your radar because it does look  

like we have quite a lot of distance to go to  the downside yet in Aussie dollar definitely a   market to keep your eye on over the next month  next is Aussie Frank last week I highlighted   this as a good opportunity to look for shorts we  did come very close to the Target but we haven't   quite achieved it yet so if you're not already  short from last week what I'd like to see first   is any pullback that would be your opportunity  once again start to look for bearish setups into   the 0.6208 if we come down take out this target  first and then bounce I'm going to be looking   down towards the next Target to the downside at  0.6150 your Aussie highlighted as a top Market to   the upside last week and we did come up and take  out the target set at the 1.55 150. any pullback   in this market this week is simply viewed as  an opportunity to start to look for bullish   setups and I'm going to be looking up towards the  1.5839 and the final Aussie pair we're looking at  

here is pound Aussie I do favor Aussie dollar  Aussie Frank and Euro Aussie over pound Aussie   because of reasons discussed earlier in the video  however we do have a really nice breakout of this   kind of ascending it's not quite an Ascend trying  because we only touch it once over here but we do   have a nice breakout of this consolidation so any  pullback I am looking for this ball flag here you   can see to continue higher any pullback is simply  viewed as an opportunity to look for further   advances into the 1.8508 okay so moving on to the  Yen Pairs and you can see over here this was the   intervention from the boj in US dollar Yen or not  in US dollar Yen but in the Japanese Yen showing   up here in US dollar Yen and this was at the the  145 level over here was seen as a bit of a ceiling   and this is where the bojangs have been previously  this is now a bit of a runaway freight train and   I wouldn't be surprised to see the boj intervening  albeit as I said unsuccessfully once again in   fact they may actually refrain from intervening  purely because they know their interventions are   likely to fail as long as the US is tightening  and increasing the value of the dollar in the   way that it is so any pullback in US dollar yen  is viewed as an opportunity to look for further   advances to the upside I am looking up to the  15164 just bear in mind if you expect increased   volatility in a market you must increase also  your risk tolerance in other words your stop loss   so if you are trading the empires I just reiterate  please make sure you're using wider stops because   there is risk of this kind of whip saw on boj  Intervention next is Frankie and you can see   here is the boj intervention we kind of just move  sideways and just like we saw in US dollar we came   up took out the high of the intervention and  we just continued and it does look like Swiss   franc is now making an attempt to do the same  so any pullback next week in Frank yen is viewed   as an opportunity to look further advances into  the 151.83 next is Euro Yen we are now starting   to break out of the previous high of the boj  intervention and again it does look like we're   coming up to previous highs over here and on to  the 13277 so any pullback and we have a little   bit of momentum you see here a bit of momentum  in Euro yet any pullback should be treated as a   potential bull flag looking further advances into  the 13277 and if we break through here onto the   147.97 so those are my six top Forex pairs that  I'm interested in trading next week and if you   are concerned about the risk of boj intervention  there's nothing wrong with just sticking to the   Aussie Pairs and perhaps some of the Commodities  down here like gold and silver which we're going   to look at next okay so wrapping up the Forex  pairs with pound Yen we have started to break   out of this consolidation down here and you  can see we're breaking with momentum now so any   pullback in pound yen is treated as a potential  opportunity to look further advances into the   153.40 and if we break through here could very  well be looking up to the 174.86 in the near   future okay so wrapping up the video with gold  silver and Bitcoin we're not covering the S P 500   in this week's video because I have outlined my  view on the S P 500 in the last few weekly Forex   forecasts so if you are interested go and have  a look at the previous videos because I Do cover   S P 500 at the end of the videos in the previous  weekly Forex forecasts and my Outlook on the S P   500 hasn't changed in terms of the gold silver  ratio I do think we're probably going to see   the formation of a right shoulder here and I would  not be surprised to see gold start to outperform   heading up to the 96.94 in the gold silver ratio  so I do favor shorts in Gold Silver and Bitcoin  

but out of the three of them Bitcoin shorts are my  top play because I do think we're likely going to   see a bit of a waterfall sell-off in Bitcoin in  the near future okay so starting with gold and   previously we rallied above the major breakout  level of the 1676.86 if I scroll out you can see   that is the major low over in this area and  what we've done is we've basically retraced   this in a bigger time frame and we've started to  reject from this level so I did warn in previous   videos that the rally in gold and silver should  be you should be wary of them because we did   have a stronger dollar we still have some of the  macro backdrop with like real rates for example   is still increasing which is a headwind for  both gold and silver and any buying of gold and   silver would have been a mistake because we're  starting to roll over so any pullback in gold   on balance is treated as an opportunity to start  to look for bearish setups and I'm going to be   looking down towards the next key of support at  the 15 75.72 next is silver again with real rates   Rising gold and silver any bounce to the upside  is definitely something to be treated with caution   and we have started to roll over I did think last  week we might come back and retest the 214230 but   the commodity scorecards told us to avoid stay out  of those Longs and we fell over six percent since   then so any pullback in this market on balance  is viewed as an opportunity to look for bearish   setups and I'm going to be looking down towards  the 16.96 and last but not least we have Bitcoin  

and I've zoomed out on bitcoin to the daily chart  because this has lacked such a large amount of   volatility that it's easy to forget how explosive  Bitcoin can be look how tight this range is and I   noticed in last week's video we failed this kind  of uh ascending triangle which it's not surprising   you don't buy ascending triangles in a bear Market  which is what Bitcoin is in so that failure was an   indication we're likely headed lower and we had  a bit of a whip saw we did have volatility coming   in off the CPI but nothing has really changed  in Bitcoin since I previously pointed this out   and I do think we could be in for another one of  these in the very near future so going into next   week I do favor shorts in Bitcoin I am looking  for potentially the next waterfall sell-off in   Bitcoin any pullback therefore is just treated as  an opportunity to look for shorts into the 16 492   as we have been looking at previously and this  large consolidation does at some point have to   come to an end so that is it for me for this week  guys as always I hope you enjoyed this video and   if you did please let me know by liking sharing  and subscribing a big thanks to everybody who   does that on a regular basis and a big thank you  to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so   far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider  joining us during the week where I share my   charts as well as the setups that I'm personally  looking at trading with members on a daily basis   and we also published the scorecards for over  75 markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership   by clicking the links in the description  below and also in the pin comment below   so thanks for watching the only thing left to  say is take care and don't get straight safely

2022-10-24 11:41

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