Weekly Forex Forecast (14/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (14/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's  weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a great   weekend last week we had the CPI data out of the  US and my word what a sell-off in the dxy a three   standard deviation down week on a closing basis  and the good news is it has brought in a number   of opportunities into the markets this week after  we've seen opportunities drying up as the markets   have been correcting and Contracting so there's  lots of good markets setting up for next week okay   so quick look at the economic calendar there isn't  too much to look at but last week it was this CPI   reading that did cause the big sell-off in the dxy  came out better than expected on both year-on-year   headline and also core CPI the headline month  or month which is actually more important than   the year on year didn't actually change those  better than expected but didn't change so there   is still quite a bit of work to be done here  in terms of inflation and unemployment claims   came out still fairly tight so I don't think we're  going to see the FED pivoting anytime soon by that   I mean cutting rates I do think we've seen Peak  fed hawkishness in fact I think Jackson Hole was   pretty much peak-fed hawkishness they are going to  slow interest rate hikes but I don't think we're   going to see a pivot out of them anytime soon  still more work to be done in terms of inflation   and if we jump to this week there's not too much  going on this week we do have some CPI data but   nothing we really need to plan for in terms of  short-term trading yes it can bring volatility   but it's not really anything that I'm looking at  here that can change the trend in the way that the   CPI data did last week so pretty clear run at the  markets in terms of news this week if we have a   look at the scores for the coming week the good  thing is we are starting to see better signals   coming into the market now last week we had a  bit of a problem because everything was kind of   neutral and the Yen which was weak was kind of  moving this way so opportunities were drying up   especially into that CPI print now it's taken  place it does look like there's plenty of good   setups heading into next week you can remember we  only need to catch a couple of good trades net to   actually make some money so going into this week  it is noticeable that the US dollar is now in the   negative side of the scorecards for the first time  in a long time but it's not extremely negative   here and the two best shorts to the downside as  it currency stands are Aussie and CAD you can see   we're still not clearing the upper or lower bound  of the bullish and bearish numbers here so above   two is when you start to get a strong bullish  or a bullish bias we're very very close to these   levels and Below two obviously a bearish bias  very close to these levels so these two markets   here I would favor to the short side Aussie and  Cad and to the long side it would be Euro and   also the Swiss franc it is noticeable like I said  if you look at the scores here commodity currency   commodity currency commodity currency Swiss franc  Safe Haven asset Safe Haven asset Japanese Yen and   the Euro whilst not being a safe haven asset  compared to the New Zealand dollar compared   to the Canadian dollar and compared to the Aussie  dollar does actually rise in Risk off so actually   what you're looking at here and this is just one  of a number of signs that that dxy sell-off last   week has not translated into a wider risk on  appetite in fact if anything we are seeing   moves to towards risk off despite that sell-off so  something very important to note in the data as it   currently stands we should be extremely careful  of Translating that dollar sell-off into a wider   risk on sentiment okay so looking at the markets  you can see there are many more setups here and   they actually look like good setups compared  to last week and the week before that are now   coming into the markets because of this volatility  remember volatility brings opportunity as well as   risk it also brings risk but without risk there  is no opportunity if markets just don't move   sure there's no risk you can't lose anything but  you can't make anything so we need volatility to   bring us risk and reward and we have started  to see quite a lot of volatility off of that   CPI data starting with the individual currencies  you can see the dxy took out both targets to the   downside last week the next Target to the downside  is the 104 64 but just bear in mind these moves   are so sharp that I would not be surprised to  see maybe at the beginning of the week at least   a day or two of this snapping back or pulling back  maybe Wednesday Thursday maybe Tuesday Wednesday   maybe Monday Tuesday so if you are looking  to be short dollars and this is why I haven't   highlighted these in gold per se because a the  dollar is only uh minus one which is very neutral   but I also think we could snap back a bit because  of how sharp this sell-off is so if you're looking   for dollar shorts next week I do think we come  down a little bit further but just be wary don't   look at selling this right at the low because  this could snap back in your face next is the   Euro took out the Target that I was looking for to  the upside last week and then exploded through as   it currently stands the Euro has pulled back to  retest the major breakout level of the 1.0375 so   we're still in a downtrend this is essentially a  bear Market rally as it currently stands and we're   right at an extremely significant area of previous  support turn resistance so again I question   whether because of how sharp very often when you  have resistance the price action leading into a   distance very often will give you an indication of  whether it's going to fail or succeed very often   if you have a steep move into it that actually can  be or is generally more likely to actually turn   that resistance area as opposed to if it comes  up like this for example consolidates underneath   it that's when you can have a better chance of  actually breaking through so be a little bit   wary of this I wouldn't be surprised to see this  Market the Euro for example snap back over the   next day or two whether again whether it's Monday  or Tuesday or whether it's Tuesday Wednesday who   knows but I do think we could see this snap back a  little bit even if we are going to continue higher   overall though the euro is still in a downtrend  next is the pound still also in the downtrend this   is as it currently stands a bear Market rally and  I am looking for the 1.20570 in the pound that's   the next care of resistance the upside next is  the Swiss franc now I tweeted this out amongst   other things that you can see over these last two  days the Swiss franc has rallied five percent to   put that into context it's sold off or was down  10 for the entire year leading up to two days   ago so we had an entire year of Swiss franc moves  resulting in 10 to the downside and we recovered   half of that or 50 of the year's move in two days  these were astronomical outsized moves we've seen   in the Forex market off of that so I am overall  bullish on the Swiss franc I do you think the   Swiss franc pairs are actually setting up to be  one of the better opportunities next week but   just bear in mind we may get a consolidation first  next is the Yen now look at this the Yen was up   six percent on the week I also tweeted this out  the last time this happened was in October 2008   during the midst of the global financial crisis  so to see this see the Swiss franc recovering half   of its entire Year's move and the Japanese Yen  trading in a way that it hasn't since the 2008   Global financial crisis actually during the crash  these are actually moves that make me a little bit   uneasy and again we should be extremely careful of  Translating that dxy sell-off into broader risk on   sentiment and a bottom in stocks that would be my  opinion I do still think the dxy is heading to new   highs despite the fact it's been volatile and we  had that sell off last week next is the cad we are   again just simply in a bear Market rally here's  the previous High here's the previous low and in   fact we could be coming back up to test this now  so I do think we see further advances perhaps in   the cad if the dollar comes down a little bit  further but ultimately I do think the dollar   makes new highs and I do think the Canadian dollar  makes new lows and it could well be the case now   that we're seeing these moves in the Swiss franc  in the Japan it could well be the case that the   next up move in the dollar is from the end of the  stock market moved down essentially a stock market   capitulation which sees Safe Haven assets rally  like the Yen like the Swiss franc like the dollar   Aussie dollar we are still an overall downtrend  again don't mistake this as it currently stands   for a new uptrend it is not it is a volatile  counter Trend rally bear Market rallies are often   very volatile and we have taken out the previous  low here we're testing this now with this very   very sharp extension I would not be surprised to  see this rolling over and correcting somewhat so   the next Target to the upside is 0.68570 but  just bear in mind we are probably still going   to see this rolling over to the downside at some  point as the dxy starts to find a bottom and heads   back to New highs and the final currency here is  the New Zealand dollar again back to the previous   lows we are simply still in a downtrend and this  is just a bear Market rally I do think we could   continue a bit higher as the dollar comes down  bit lower perhaps to the 0.62 to 80. however I   am anticipating this in the near future to start  to roll over back down to the lows okay so let's   look at the markets themselves start through  door and the first thing to notice is we took   out the target set last week almost to the PIP  at the 93.75 coming into this week I do have a  

bearish to neutral bias on crude oil and we're  starting on the daily chart here because I want   to show you something as it currently stands we  have a failed inverse Head and Shoulders failed   last week we got the sell-off and on top of this  that sell-off created a smaller Head and Shoulders   to the downside so we are actually at a point in  crude oil where we can go either way and the next   move is likely to be quite explosive however as  it currently stands because we have a failure and   we have a newly developed although not confirmed  head and shoulders in crude oil this is actually   bearish and if this breaks to the downside and the  next move is explosive and it is to the downside   that is risk off that is not risk on it's another  piece of information here which shows me we have   not yet seen a broader risk on sentiment coming  into the markets so if you drop to the four hour   chart you can see this a little bit better here  is the developing Head and Shoulders here was the   failed inverse head and shoulders and I wouldn't  be bullish on this unless we could break above   here with momentum we started to do this and pull  back that would be when I would start to look for   long positions in crude oil as it currently  stands I am focused on this developing Head   and Shoulders to the downside any pullback here  therefore is viewed as a potential opportunity   to trade this as a right shoulder and I am going  to be looking down towards the next key of support   to the downside at the 80.02 okay so the First  Market which I do like going into next week is   Aussie Frank we did have this Head and Shoulders  over here which is broken with momentum we pulled   back it got a bit volatile I have been warning in  previous videos Aussie Frank to the downside New   Zealand Frank to the downside they're not finished  this is just a correction I expect these to roll   over at some point and test the lows just as I'm  currently saying I expect despite the volatility   in dxy that it will at some point in the near  future and this took a couple of weeks but it   will at some point in the near future make new  highs I do believe that and we are now starting   to roll over in Aussie Frank any pullback in this  market next week is viewed as an opportunity to   look for Bearer setups down to the 0.6208 next is  CAD Frank this is my second favorite Frank pair   to the downside but look at how steep this  sell-off is if you go short on the Monday   you might find this snaps back quite viciously  Monday and Tuesday so wait for the pullback in   these markets especially because of that volatile  move but once we start to see this snapping back   this is going to be the opportunity to start to  look for shorts into the 0.7061 and if we come   down like this and test this and then bounce I'm  going to be looking down towards Target two and   the 0.6993 next is New Zealand Frank again I was  warning this was just a bear Market rally and we   should be looking for further declines we did by  the looks a bit double top over here and now we're   starting to work our way down so any pullback in  this market is viewed as an opportunity to start   to look for shorts down to the 0.5512 as I've  been saying for a while I do believe there's a  

very good chance higher probability we're coming  down to test previous lows in this market so it   does now look like we've got the green light on  this Market next is the Yen now I'm in the daily   chart here why because Aussie yen is the most risk  on risk-off currency pair and this chart should   give you serious pause for thought we are now  looking at a failure at the left shoulder this is   textbook Head and Shoulders reversal in the most  risk on risk off currency pair if Aussie dollar   is selling off this is of course risk off because  you're seeing the Australian dollar the most risk   on currency failing against Japanese Yen which is  the most risk off so again put all of the pieces   of the puzzle together we are seeing volatility  that generally speaking occurs around Major Market   moves or crashes we're seeing Safe Haven assets  appreciating in some cases as much as they did   during the actual crash of 2008 and now you're  seeing a major reversal pattern in the most risk   on risk off currency pair to the downside which is  implying risk off coming into the markets so head   into next week not only am I looking to short this  but we've now broken the lows here we come down   break this low this confirms this double top and  if we break here with momentum this is the kind   of move you would expect to see during a crash  during a massive risk off event because usually   what happens when you break the law over here you  enter third waves that's what we're basically at   this is essentially a second wave when you  have a head and shoulders just as this was   the second wave this was the third wave if we get  this to the downside then you could see some real   risk off coming into the market so it's another  indication that that sell-off in the dxy could be   an illusion in terms of wider risk on sentiment  so dropping down to the four hour chart you can   see we've started to break out down here we've  broken the previous low we are now starting to   turn to the downside any pullback in this market  is viewed next week as an opportunity to look for   shorts and keep an eye out for the break of this  low because if this low breaks with momentum we   could be starting a third wave to the downside  and this actually would be a sign you would want   to hold on to any trades you get pre-break to see  if you can catch a much bigger move so I do really   like Aussie Yen how this Market trades at this low  is going to be very indicative of The Wider risk   on risk off sentiment and I believe we probably  see this break with momentum when we see risk   off coming into the markets next is cadien huge  sell-off after breaking the lows over here again   if you get involved at the lows you run the risk  of this snapping back in your face so wait for   a correction but any pullback in this market is  viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts into   the 101.76 next is New Zealand Yen also setting  up a major Head and Shoulders reversal here in the   bigger picture and again this would be indicative  of a major risk off move coming into markets if we   start to break down here if we scroll in however  you can see that not only are we forming the right   shoulder here but the trend has now changed so  we've got the right shoulder and the trend has   now changed we had a double top over here we've  broken the lows this is a reversal pattern in and   of itself and any pullback here should be viewed  as an opportunity to look for shorts down to the   previous low over here which is the confirmation  point this is where we should be looking for a   potential break with momentum and a third wave  to the downside and then on to the 79.52 but   again if you break it with momentum you might  be looking to hold this longer term rather than   taking profits at the 79.52 next is your Aussie  now your Aussie has started to break out of what  

looks like the this big ball flag I don't like  the technicals on these as much as these markets   here so I do favor the Frank and the Yankees any  continued pullback in this though is viewed as   an opportunity to look for bullish setups back to  the previous highs and then on to the 1.5839 next   is eurocab we are breaking out of previous highs  here with momentum any pullback I'll be looking   for this as a bull flag next week and I'll be  looking for setups into the 1.3806 again I do   favor these markets over and above the Euro pairs  but the Euro pairs are certainly on the table as   well next week okay so wrapping up the currency  pairs with the dollar pairs now the dollar pairs   are not markets that I'm really looking at trading  next week but I've added them in here just for   analysis just to see where they're at you can  see with euro dollar what we've done is we've   pulled back to the major breakout level of the  1.0343 and so if you go long euro dollar you're   trading right into not just that breakout level  but the previous area of resistance over here at   the 1.0365 so so I do think patience is required  we're right at that area where if we break through   with momentum you can be looking up to the 1.06359  but if we start to stall out here and reverse that  

could well be the sign that the dollar itself is  starting to bottom as well as I believe will be   the case fairly soon maybe not next week maybe  not even the week after but in the near future   next is Aussie dollar now look at Aussie dollar  we are making our way up to the 0.61240 but this   is counter Trend this is what I was saying with  Aussie Frank previously that it's likely to start   to roll over and it did New Zealand Frank starting  to roll over so I do believe just as we saw those   markets rolling over I do believe Aussie dollar is  whether it comes up and tests the 0.6124 first or   whether it starts to roll over before that I do  think this starts to roll over and we're coming   back to the lows in Aussie dollar as the dxy  makes new highs so I think if you're trading this   counter Trend you you might be chasing diminishing  opportunities here I much prefer the Frank Pairs   and the Yen pairs as a result US dollar CAD took  out the target to the downside last week and you   can see we're looking at the dollar pairs in the  daily chart we're getting to a point in US dollar   CAD as well where yes maybe there is more downside  because markets don't tend to just be bottom like   this but if we start to pull back a bit and we  come down and test the 1.3209 we're starting to   test previous major breakout levels in US dollar  Cad and again this could be where we start to see   a bottom in this market so be careful with this  if you're trading them to the downside and the   final dollar pair is New Zealand dollar we took  out the counter Trend Target last week heading   into this week just like Aussie dollar I do think  we roll over to the downside fairly soon however   if we pull back we may come up and test 0.6230  but you can see this is the previous high so  

anything currently to the upside should just be  considered an opportunity to look for the next   leg down and a counter Trend move so I do think  we could see these a little bit higher especially   next week in the dollar down a little bit maybe  next week or the week after however be wary of   trading this counter Trend as with Aussie Frank  New Zealand Frank I do think this rolls over to   test the lows in the near future okay so wrapping  up the video with gold silver and Bitcoin starting   with the gold silver ratio we are trending to the  downside and last week I did actually favor silver   over gold and I still think gold and silver  if you are looking to trade dollar pairs are   probably the better markets to be trading and  I also think they could provide the key as to   when the dollar could start to bottom and make a  run to new highs starting with gold and I want to   look at these on the daily chart as well just for  a better view we did take out the target set last   week at the 1729.48 the next Target to the upside  is the 1807.16 and I think what we're going to see   in Gold if we do pull back a little bit further  I do think we could come up test this area here   and I question whether this Kiera resistance is  where we start to see gold rolling over in which   case I do think that could also be the bottom in  the dxy if we start to get that and we start to   see some reversal patterns in the dxy so again  I do think there's a little bit more upside in   this I think the dollar comes down a little bit  further heading into next week next is silver I   do also have a near-term bullish bias on Silver  once again any pullback in this market next week   is viewed as a ball flag looking for the 22.49  and last but not least we have Bitcoin now look   at Bitcoin another Market which if we had broader  risk on sentiment you would expect to rally and   yet we had a big sell-off to the downside Bitcoin  is actually a short going into next week and I   question whether if we put these things together  we get this correction in Bitcoin as the dollar   comes down a bit lower and as gold trades into  that level as silver trades into that level and   then we start to see the dollar bounce Bitcoin  comes to the downside and we see gold and silver   rolling over from those levels as Aussie Yen  breaks to the downside and we get risk off coming   into the market so that is it for me for me for  this week guys as always I hope you enjoyed this describing a big thanks to everybody who does  that on a regular basis and a big thank you to   everybody who has subscribed to the channel  so far if you enjoyed today's video why not   consider joining us during the week where I  share my charts as well as the setups that I'm   personally looking at trading with members  on a daily basis and we also published the   scorecards for over 75 markets in different  asset classes including Forex stocks bonds   and commodities you can find out more about  the benefits of GMT membership by clicking   the links in the description below and also  in the pinned comment below so thanks for   watching the only thing left to say is take  care and don't forget straight safely foreign

2022-11-13 20:19

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