Weekly Forex Forecast (14/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]
foreign ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a great weekend last week we had the CPI data out of the US and my word what a sell-off in the dxy a three standard deviation down week on a closing basis and the good news is it has brought in a number of opportunities into the markets this week after we've seen opportunities drying up as the markets have been correcting and Contracting so there's lots of good markets setting up for next week okay so quick look at the economic calendar there isn't too much to look at but last week it was this CPI reading that did cause the big sell-off in the dxy came out better than expected on both year-on-year headline and also core CPI the headline month or month which is actually more important than the year on year didn't actually change those better than expected but didn't change so there is still quite a bit of work to be done here in terms of inflation and unemployment claims came out still fairly tight so I don't think we're going to see the FED pivoting anytime soon by that I mean cutting rates I do think we've seen Peak fed hawkishness in fact I think Jackson Hole was pretty much peak-fed hawkishness they are going to slow interest rate hikes but I don't think we're going to see a pivot out of them anytime soon still more work to be done in terms of inflation and if we jump to this week there's not too much going on this week we do have some CPI data but nothing we really need to plan for in terms of short-term trading yes it can bring volatility but it's not really anything that I'm looking at here that can change the trend in the way that the CPI data did last week so pretty clear run at the markets in terms of news this week if we have a look at the scores for the coming week the good thing is we are starting to see better signals coming into the market now last week we had a bit of a problem because everything was kind of neutral and the Yen which was weak was kind of moving this way so opportunities were drying up especially into that CPI print now it's taken place it does look like there's plenty of good setups heading into next week you can remember we only need to catch a couple of good trades net to actually make some money so going into this week it is noticeable that the US dollar is now in the negative side of the scorecards for the first time in a long time but it's not extremely negative here and the two best shorts to the downside as it currency stands are Aussie and CAD you can see we're still not clearing the upper or lower bound of the bullish and bearish numbers here so above two is when you start to get a strong bullish or a bullish bias we're very very close to these levels and Below two obviously a bearish bias very close to these levels so these two markets here I would favor to the short side Aussie and Cad and to the long side it would be Euro and also the Swiss franc it is noticeable like I said if you look at the scores here commodity currency commodity currency commodity currency Swiss franc Safe Haven asset Safe Haven asset Japanese Yen and the Euro whilst not being a safe haven asset compared to the New Zealand dollar compared to the Canadian dollar and compared to the Aussie dollar does actually rise in Risk off so actually what you're looking at here and this is just one of a number of signs that that dxy sell-off last week has not translated into a wider risk on appetite in fact if anything we are seeing moves to towards risk off despite that sell-off so something very important to note in the data as it currently stands we should be extremely careful of Translating that dollar sell-off into a wider risk on sentiment okay so looking at the markets you can see there are many more setups here and they actually look like good setups compared to last week and the week before that are now coming into the markets because of this volatility remember volatility brings opportunity as well as risk it also brings risk but without risk there is no opportunity if markets just don't move sure there's no risk you can't lose anything but you can't make anything so we need volatility to bring us risk and reward and we have started to see quite a lot of volatility off of that CPI data starting with the individual currencies you can see the dxy took out both targets to the downside last week the next Target to the downside is the 104 64 but just bear in mind these moves are so sharp that I would not be surprised to see maybe at the beginning of the week at least a day or two of this snapping back or pulling back maybe Wednesday Thursday maybe Tuesday Wednesday maybe Monday Tuesday so if you are looking to be short dollars and this is why I haven't highlighted these in gold per se because a the dollar is only uh minus one which is very neutral but I also think we could snap back a bit because of how sharp this sell-off is so if you're looking for dollar shorts next week I do think we come down a little bit further but just be wary don't look at selling this right at the low because this could snap back in your face next is the Euro took out the Target that I was looking for to the upside last week and then exploded through as it currently stands the Euro has pulled back to retest the major breakout level of the 1.0375 so we're still in a downtrend this is essentially a bear Market rally as it currently stands and we're right at an extremely significant area of previous support turn resistance so again I question whether because of how sharp very often when you have resistance the price action leading into a distance very often will give you an indication of whether it's going to fail or succeed very often if you have a steep move into it that actually can be or is generally more likely to actually turn that resistance area as opposed to if it comes up like this for example consolidates underneath it that's when you can have a better chance of actually breaking through so be a little bit wary of this I wouldn't be surprised to see this Market the Euro for example snap back over the next day or two whether again whether it's Monday or Tuesday or whether it's Tuesday Wednesday who knows but I do think we could see this snap back a little bit even if we are going to continue higher overall though the euro is still in a downtrend next is the pound still also in the downtrend this is as it currently stands a bear Market rally and I am looking for the 1.20570 in the pound that's the next care of resistance the upside next is the Swiss franc now I tweeted this out amongst other things that you can see over these last two days the Swiss franc has rallied five percent to put that into context it's sold off or was down 10 for the entire year leading up to two days ago so we had an entire year of Swiss franc moves resulting in 10 to the downside and we recovered half of that or 50 of the year's move in two days these were astronomical outsized moves we've seen in the Forex market off of that so I am overall bullish on the Swiss franc I do you think the Swiss franc pairs are actually setting up to be one of the better opportunities next week but just bear in mind we may get a consolidation first next is the Yen now look at this the Yen was up six percent on the week I also tweeted this out the last time this happened was in October 2008 during the midst of the global financial crisis so to see this see the Swiss franc recovering half of its entire Year's move and the Japanese Yen trading in a way that it hasn't since the 2008 Global financial crisis actually during the crash these are actually moves that make me a little bit uneasy and again we should be extremely careful of Translating that dxy sell-off into broader risk on sentiment and a bottom in stocks that would be my opinion I do still think the dxy is heading to new highs despite the fact it's been volatile and we had that sell off last week next is the cad we are again just simply in a bear Market rally here's the previous High here's the previous low and in fact we could be coming back up to test this now so I do think we see further advances perhaps in the cad if the dollar comes down a little bit further but ultimately I do think the dollar makes new highs and I do think the Canadian dollar makes new lows and it could well be the case now that we're seeing these moves in the Swiss franc in the Japan it could well be the case that the next up move in the dollar is from the end of the stock market moved down essentially a stock market capitulation which sees Safe Haven assets rally like the Yen like the Swiss franc like the dollar Aussie dollar we are still an overall downtrend again don't mistake this as it currently stands for a new uptrend it is not it is a volatile counter Trend rally bear Market rallies are often very volatile and we have taken out the previous low here we're testing this now with this very very sharp extension I would not be surprised to see this rolling over and correcting somewhat so the next Target to the upside is 0.68570 but just bear in mind we are probably still going to see this rolling over to the downside at some point as the dxy starts to find a bottom and heads back to New highs and the final currency here is the New Zealand dollar again back to the previous lows we are simply still in a downtrend and this is just a bear Market rally I do think we could continue a bit higher as the dollar comes down bit lower perhaps to the 0.62 to 80. however I am anticipating this in the near future to start to roll over back down to the lows okay so let's look at the markets themselves start through door and the first thing to notice is we took out the target set last week almost to the PIP at the 93.75 coming into this week I do have a
bearish to neutral bias on crude oil and we're starting on the daily chart here because I want to show you something as it currently stands we have a failed inverse Head and Shoulders failed last week we got the sell-off and on top of this that sell-off created a smaller Head and Shoulders to the downside so we are actually at a point in crude oil where we can go either way and the next move is likely to be quite explosive however as it currently stands because we have a failure and we have a newly developed although not confirmed head and shoulders in crude oil this is actually bearish and if this breaks to the downside and the next move is explosive and it is to the downside that is risk off that is not risk on it's another piece of information here which shows me we have not yet seen a broader risk on sentiment coming into the markets so if you drop to the four hour chart you can see this a little bit better here is the developing Head and Shoulders here was the failed inverse head and shoulders and I wouldn't be bullish on this unless we could break above here with momentum we started to do this and pull back that would be when I would start to look for long positions in crude oil as it currently stands I am focused on this developing Head and Shoulders to the downside any pullback here therefore is viewed as a potential opportunity to trade this as a right shoulder and I am going to be looking down towards the next key of support to the downside at the 80.02 okay so the First Market which I do like going into next week is Aussie Frank we did have this Head and Shoulders over here which is broken with momentum we pulled back it got a bit volatile I have been warning in previous videos Aussie Frank to the downside New Zealand Frank to the downside they're not finished this is just a correction I expect these to roll over at some point and test the lows just as I'm currently saying I expect despite the volatility in dxy that it will at some point in the near future and this took a couple of weeks but it will at some point in the near future make new highs I do believe that and we are now starting to roll over in Aussie Frank any pullback in this market next week is viewed as an opportunity to look for Bearer setups down to the 0.6208 next is CAD Frank this is my second favorite Frank pair to the downside but look at how steep this sell-off is if you go short on the Monday you might find this snaps back quite viciously Monday and Tuesday so wait for the pullback in these markets especially because of that volatile move but once we start to see this snapping back this is going to be the opportunity to start to look for shorts into the 0.7061 and if we come down like this and test this and then bounce I'm going to be looking down towards Target two and the 0.6993 next is New Zealand Frank again I was warning this was just a bear Market rally and we should be looking for further declines we did by the looks a bit double top over here and now we're starting to work our way down so any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to start to look for shorts down to the 0.5512 as I've been saying for a while I do believe there's a
very good chance higher probability we're coming down to test previous lows in this market so it does now look like we've got the green light on this Market next is the Yen now I'm in the daily chart here why because Aussie yen is the most risk on risk-off currency pair and this chart should give you serious pause for thought we are now looking at a failure at the left shoulder this is textbook Head and Shoulders reversal in the most risk on risk off currency pair if Aussie dollar is selling off this is of course risk off because you're seeing the Australian dollar the most risk on currency failing against Japanese Yen which is the most risk off so again put all of the pieces of the puzzle together we are seeing volatility that generally speaking occurs around Major Market moves or crashes we're seeing Safe Haven assets appreciating in some cases as much as they did during the actual crash of 2008 and now you're seeing a major reversal pattern in the most risk on risk off currency pair to the downside which is implying risk off coming into the markets so head into next week not only am I looking to short this but we've now broken the lows here we come down break this low this confirms this double top and if we break here with momentum this is the kind of move you would expect to see during a crash during a massive risk off event because usually what happens when you break the law over here you enter third waves that's what we're basically at this is essentially a second wave when you have a head and shoulders just as this was the second wave this was the third wave if we get this to the downside then you could see some real risk off coming into the market so it's another indication that that sell-off in the dxy could be an illusion in terms of wider risk on sentiment so dropping down to the four hour chart you can see we've started to break out down here we've broken the previous low we are now starting to turn to the downside any pullback in this market is viewed next week as an opportunity to look for shorts and keep an eye out for the break of this low because if this low breaks with momentum we could be starting a third wave to the downside and this actually would be a sign you would want to hold on to any trades you get pre-break to see if you can catch a much bigger move so I do really like Aussie Yen how this Market trades at this low is going to be very indicative of The Wider risk on risk off sentiment and I believe we probably see this break with momentum when we see risk off coming into the markets next is cadien huge sell-off after breaking the lows over here again if you get involved at the lows you run the risk of this snapping back in your face so wait for a correction but any pullback in this market is viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts into the 101.76 next is New Zealand Yen also setting up a major Head and Shoulders reversal here in the bigger picture and again this would be indicative of a major risk off move coming into markets if we start to break down here if we scroll in however you can see that not only are we forming the right shoulder here but the trend has now changed so we've got the right shoulder and the trend has now changed we had a double top over here we've broken the lows this is a reversal pattern in and of itself and any pullback here should be viewed as an opportunity to look for shorts down to the previous low over here which is the confirmation point this is where we should be looking for a potential break with momentum and a third wave to the downside and then on to the 79.52 but again if you break it with momentum you might be looking to hold this longer term rather than taking profits at the 79.52 next is your Aussie now your Aussie has started to break out of what
looks like the this big ball flag I don't like the technicals on these as much as these markets here so I do favor the Frank and the Yankees any continued pullback in this though is viewed as an opportunity to look for bullish setups back to the previous highs and then on to the 1.5839 next is eurocab we are breaking out of previous highs here with momentum any pullback I'll be looking for this as a bull flag next week and I'll be looking for setups into the 1.3806 again I do favor these markets over and above the Euro pairs but the Euro pairs are certainly on the table as well next week okay so wrapping up the currency pairs with the dollar pairs now the dollar pairs are not markets that I'm really looking at trading next week but I've added them in here just for analysis just to see where they're at you can see with euro dollar what we've done is we've pulled back to the major breakout level of the 1.0343 and so if you go long euro dollar you're trading right into not just that breakout level but the previous area of resistance over here at the 1.0365 so so I do think patience is required we're right at that area where if we break through with momentum you can be looking up to the 1.06359 but if we start to stall out here and reverse that
could well be the sign that the dollar itself is starting to bottom as well as I believe will be the case fairly soon maybe not next week maybe not even the week after but in the near future next is Aussie dollar now look at Aussie dollar we are making our way up to the 0.61240 but this is counter Trend this is what I was saying with Aussie Frank previously that it's likely to start to roll over and it did New Zealand Frank starting to roll over so I do believe just as we saw those markets rolling over I do believe Aussie dollar is whether it comes up and tests the 0.6124 first or whether it starts to roll over before that I do think this starts to roll over and we're coming back to the lows in Aussie dollar as the dxy makes new highs so I think if you're trading this counter Trend you you might be chasing diminishing opportunities here I much prefer the Frank Pairs and the Yen pairs as a result US dollar CAD took out the target to the downside last week and you can see we're looking at the dollar pairs in the daily chart we're getting to a point in US dollar CAD as well where yes maybe there is more downside because markets don't tend to just be bottom like this but if we start to pull back a bit and we come down and test the 1.3209 we're starting to test previous major breakout levels in US dollar Cad and again this could be where we start to see a bottom in this market so be careful with this if you're trading them to the downside and the final dollar pair is New Zealand dollar we took out the counter Trend Target last week heading into this week just like Aussie dollar I do think we roll over to the downside fairly soon however if we pull back we may come up and test 0.6230 but you can see this is the previous high so
anything currently to the upside should just be considered an opportunity to look for the next leg down and a counter Trend move so I do think we could see these a little bit higher especially next week in the dollar down a little bit maybe next week or the week after however be wary of trading this counter Trend as with Aussie Frank New Zealand Frank I do think this rolls over to test the lows in the near future okay so wrapping up the video with gold silver and Bitcoin starting with the gold silver ratio we are trending to the downside and last week I did actually favor silver over gold and I still think gold and silver if you are looking to trade dollar pairs are probably the better markets to be trading and I also think they could provide the key as to when the dollar could start to bottom and make a run to new highs starting with gold and I want to look at these on the daily chart as well just for a better view we did take out the target set last week at the 1729.48 the next Target to the upside is the 1807.16 and I think what we're going to see in Gold if we do pull back a little bit further I do think we could come up test this area here and I question whether this Kiera resistance is where we start to see gold rolling over in which case I do think that could also be the bottom in the dxy if we start to get that and we start to see some reversal patterns in the dxy so again I do think there's a little bit more upside in this I think the dollar comes down a little bit further heading into next week next is silver I do also have a near-term bullish bias on Silver once again any pullback in this market next week is viewed as a ball flag looking for the 22.49 and last but not least we have Bitcoin now look at Bitcoin another Market which if we had broader risk on sentiment you would expect to rally and yet we had a big sell-off to the downside Bitcoin is actually a short going into next week and I question whether if we put these things together we get this correction in Bitcoin as the dollar comes down a bit lower and as gold trades into that level as silver trades into that level and then we start to see the dollar bounce Bitcoin comes to the downside and we see gold and silver rolling over from those levels as Aussie Yen breaks to the downside and we get risk off coming into the market so that is it for me for me for this week guys as always I hope you enjoyed this describing a big thanks to everybody who does that on a regular basis and a big thank you to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider joining us during the week where I share my charts as well as the setups that I'm personally looking at trading with members on a daily basis and we also published the scorecards for over 75 markets in different asset classes including Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find out more about the benefits of GMT membership by clicking the links in the description below and also in the pinned comment below so thanks for watching the only thing left to say is take care and don't forget straight safely foreign
2022-11-13 20:19