Weekly Forex Forecast (07/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

Weekly Forex Forecast (07/11/22) EurUsd / XauUsd + Forex Trading Plan! [HD]

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foreign [Music]   ERS it's John Fortune here with this week's  weekly Forex forecast I hope you're having a   great weekend last week was a very tricky week we  had fomc and non-farm payrolls and we started the   week in the dxy right here and as you can see we  just moved sideways into fomc we rallied higher   on fomc and then we did nothing into non-farm  payrolls and then we sold off on non-farm payrolls   finishing the week basically where we started  so it was one big wild goose chase in the dxy   and in markets last week okay so quick look at  the economic calendar and we had a lot going on   last week we had the interest rate decision out  of Australia where they raised rates we also had   the ism data coming out of the us as well and we  didn't get a recessionary reading which is under   50. so for the time being it is still projecting  growth in the US 12 months out and if we come down   further you can see the big one last week was fomc  now we did get the rape rise and what happened   last week was we had additional statements which  were dovish in the rate statement released before   the press conference essentially saying they're  going to take into account the lagging effects   and the cumulative effects of their rate hikes  and this was seen as being dovish and the market   actually started to Rally but then Powell came  out and stated that the terminal rate I.E the   rate at which interest rates are going to have  to go before they Peak is likely to be higher   than previously anticipated and that was when we  saw stocks dumping and we saw the dollar rallying   after the frmc press conference now what happened  was as we just looked at we rallied into non-farm   payrolls and on non-farm payrolls we had a  beat on the actual number itself however it   was the unemployment rate which went from 3.5  to 3.7 and when you look at the participation   rate because this was lower this was showing that  this was actually a sign of layoffs in the jobs   Market as opposed to more people entering the  workforce and looking for employment who hadn't   been before and that was why we got the sell-off  in the dollar towards the end of the week on   the non-farm payrolls data even though we had the  actual number itself coming out fairly strong and   better than expected and if we jump ahead to the  coming week you can see there isn't too much in   the economic calendar we need to pay attention to  apart from two important pieces of data or one of   them is actually an event and that is on Tuesday  we have the Congressional elections out of the US   but I think more importantly next week it is the  CPI data since it's this inflationary regime that   the FED are fighting and this is really what's  dictating the dollar in a lot of the market so   keep an eye out on Thursday I do expect markets  to get volatile and I'm going to go through in   today's video what I think we're going to see  into that CPI event and I don't think CPI is   going to be coming down significantly anytime soon  and you may well find that investors and Traders   are disappointed by this report on Thursday okay  so let's have a look at the scores for the coming   week and you can see in the currency Majors here  we do not have a single currency major and I can't   remember the last time this happened you don't  have a single currency scoring two or minus two   and the scorecards have been warning us for a  number of weeks be careful Market opportunities   are likely to dry up markets are going to become  corrective and choppy and is exactly what we've   seen take the dxy last week which went up  went down and basically finished the week   where it started this is what the scorecards  were projecting this kind of choppiness before   for last week even started and in previous  videos we've been looking at the fact that market   opportunities are drying up and the dxy especially  has been lacking Direction so going into this week   you should still be looking to reduce your risk  not going too crazy because we're not out of this   range-bound corrective condition in the markets  as it currently stands however there are still   some opportunities I'll be looking at and they  will be primarily based on the net changes this   week so I am interested and you can see US dollar  and Euro both on the same side of the scorecards   telling us again Mark it's a choppy markets are  range bound what I'd like to see this week is   I am going to be looking at the Australian Dollar  to the downside as one of the best shorts I'm not   looking at the JPY because this was -3 and it's  now minus two so it's actually moving this way in   the scorecards and that is a sign when we have a  net change here so we have a weak currency getting   stronger it's assigned to book profits cover  shorts if you're involved in those because we may   see some near-term strength in the Japanese Yen  it's not a Buy Signal because you can get involved   with that and it can fly in your face because  it's still on the native side of the scorecards   but it is telling us to cover shorts so that  really leaves the Australian dollar as the next   short I'm also interested in pound shorts and  we can also look at Frank shorts and to the long   side I'm primarily interested in the cad and  the New Zealand dollar but we're also going to   be looking at the US dollar because what I think  we're going to see this week is essentially what   we were talking about last week we are finally  going to get that run down in the dollar I believe   heading into CPI and then a reversal and as the  dollar sells off I expect the commodity currencies   like the New Zealand and the cad to outperform  especially some of these other markets and then   once the dollar starts to Rally from the lows if  that's what we're going to get you can actually   look at a continuation some of those dollar pairs  so let's go and have a look at the dxy and I'll   explain exactly how I think this could play out  in CPI okay so let's have a look at the individual   currencies before moving on to the markets  themselves starting with the dxy now in last   week's video we started the week right here and  I highlighted the fact I believe that the XY was   going to come down to the 109.48 and then where  we're going to see a rally to new highs of the 111   4.99 over the course of this month now last week  what happened was we just moved sideways then we   got the rally on fomc as I said earlier they're  non-farm payrolls we sold off and we finished the   week right where we started the week that's why I  say last week was one big wild goose chase because   basically it looked like we were going to go into  the highs without taking out the 109 and then with   the big sell-off it now looks like we are actually  going to come back to the 109 48 before heading   a bit higher so in terms of the dxy next week  I am looking for potentially any pullback and   a sell-off into the 109.48 and I believe if we  are going to get a disappointing CPI reading on  

Thursday which is likely going to see let's say  a rally in the dollar if we get that it's just a   scenario which I see potentially playing out next  week then I would be looking for myself into the   109.480 and if that's the case we could see a  potential reversal on CPI and then perhaps the   following week that is when we looking at further  advancing the dxy so either way whether we get   a sell-off into the 109.48 before the CPI or if  we just correct into CPI and then get a sell-off   I do think based on this failure on non-farm  payrolls we are now coming back to the 109.48 as I  

highlighted last week and essentially what we were  looking at last week is still in play especially   as nothing actually happened we just went up down  finished the week where we started last week next   is the Euro now as the dxy likely comes down to  the 109.48 I do think the euro is going to come up   to the 1.01310 and this is the move I'm looking  at next week in the Euro but I've left this on   here look I've got one to the upside and to the  downside to remind you that we are still in a bear   Market in the euro look at this this is corrective  this is corrective and once we trade into these   highs especially if we trade into these highs and  then we get a hotter than expected CPI reading on   Thursday you're probably going to see this start  to roll over to the downside so so be very careful   remember we are in an overall downtrend in the  Euro and in the dxy we're probably going to make   higher Highs at some point but I do think we get  this initial push up to the 1.01310 next week as   the dxy sells off into the 109.48. next is the  pound now this was the start of the flash crash  

in the pound very often when you get these flash  crashes the market pulls all the way back and   retests the highs so I am looking for the pound to  come up to this area here this High specifically   and this is also confirmation that we are probably  coming down to the 109.48 in the dxy and if we are   going to Rally in the dxy we probably still have  one more push to the downside first possibly in   CPI so as you can see my Outlook hasn't actually  changed from last week because we just got taken   for a ride basically with the non-farm payrolls  fomc events so I am looking for the pound to come   up retest the highs over here potentially into  CPI and this is where we could start to look   for a potential reversal back down to the lows  especially if we get a hotter than expected CPI   reading on Thursday next is the Swiss franc now  the Swiss franc is a little less clear you can see   we have gone absolutely nowhere since the start  of October look at this look how choppy this is   this is a market yes we had a big rally here but  we also had a big engulfing day here which petered   out so we are still over on a downtrend but we're  at the lows so this is really not something where   you can take strong bites one way or the other  I am potentially interested in some Frank short   positions based on the scorecards but as you can  see they're not highlighted in Gold because they   are counter Trend and I do expect as I said in  previous videos the New Zealand the Aussie to   start to roll over to the downside against  the Swiss franc once again once we start to   see a bit more risk off coming into the market so  stocks down dollar higher Etc next is the yen in   an overall downtrend technically but you can see  we also have gone nowhere over the last five to   ten days so it does look like we may be getting a  deep correction based on the scorecards going from   -3 to minus two I wouldn't want to be long though  as I said because at any point these markets can   reverse and trade lower so it is really just to  cover your shorts signal from the scorecards and   as a result I'm just going to stay out of the  end trades this week next is the cad now we are   starting to push a bit higher in WTI and also we  have a big rally in the Canadian dollar on Friday   we've actually just broken confirmed and inverse  Head and Shoulders here in the daily and the   target for this inverse Head and Shoulders would  probably take us right back roughly into this area   of the previous lows so I wouldn't be surprised to  see the Canadian dollar doing this especially as   the dxy sells off a little bit into the 109.48  area and as a result I am looking for Canadian   dollar long plays as one of the better setups  next week although I stress all markets corrective   and none of the them are absolutely outright  fantastic plays but I do favor cadlongs on balance   Australian dollar we also have somewhat of an  inverse Head and Shoulders but again this is not   something we should be looking at buying in a big  way because it's still overall in a downtrend you   can see here we're making lower lows and lower  highs so I still view this as corrective even if   we break the high over here I do think we get some  near-term strength in the Aussie in again perhaps   this brings us back to the previous low and so  I do think we could see a little bit of Aussie   strength if the dxy sells off but I would still  favor it on the short side against the Canadian   dollar and the New Zealand dollar next week and  last but not least we have the New Zealand dollar   somewhat of a sloppy double bottom not a fantastic  one but we have started to bounce here from   the lows and again it looks like we're probably  going to come back and retest this and as the dxy   sells into the 109.48 I would be expecting some  near-term strength in the New Zealand dollar again   potentially testing the lows over here and then if  we get that hot CPI reading that could kick start   the next leg down in this oval downtrend because  you can see the market is still trending down so   this should still be viewed as a correction as it  currently stands okay so let's look at the markets   themselves starting with crude oil now crude oil  was highlighted as a potential Long play in last   week's video we did break up above the previous  higher here with some nice momentum So for   anybody not involved from last week any pullback  before taking out the high especially if we come   down test here and kind of stair step this is an  opportunity once again to look for bullish setups   into the 9375 and if we take this out first and  then pull back I'm going to be looking up towards   Target two at the 98.18 just bear in mind this  is not an outright very bullish chart it is as it   currently stands bullish to neutral next is euro  dollar now normally I start with the best setups   which are highlighted here in Gold but this week  because of what we discussed in the dxy I am going   to do a quick run through of how I think that  reflects in the dollar pairs in the Euro I am   looking for any potential pullback remember though  this is counter Trend and the risk the overall   risk is for a bigger sell-off especially on a  hotter CPI data but any pullback I am going to be   looking further advances into that CPI on Thursday  up to the 1.0091 next is Aussie dollar again I'm  

just viewing this as a big correction and I do  think we come up and retest the 0.65490 which   is this previous high so any pullback in Aussie  dollar I am going to be looking for this rally   into the CPI data and if we take out this High  over here and we go into that Thursday essentially   at this level keep an eye out for a potential  reversal because if we get the hotter CPI I   would then start to look for this to basically  be a failed inverse head and shoulders and that's   where we see the next leg down in Aussie dollar  next is US dollar card again I've left this Target   on here to show you the overall trend is to the  upside and we should at some point expect the   1.3970 to be taken out but if you come have a  look at us dollar CAD on the four hours we had   a big big sell-off here not very often do these  markets just reverse like that so I am looking   for a potential correction here in US dollar card  and a sell-off down towards the 1.3308 and again I  

think this probably happens into CPI on Thursday  what I would say is if we only correct here into   Thursday and we do nothing a week that's a sign  that we're probably going to see a sell-off on   CPI so keep an eye out for the price action before  that piece of data I think on balance we correct   and sell off into CPI and the final pair here is  New Zealand dollar again any pullback is viewed as   a potential opportunity in CPI to start to look  for Longs the next key of resistance is 0.60780   but again if you want to trade this because the  markets are corrective choppy and the scorecards   are basically saying there's no outright good  long or shorts if you're looking to trade this   into CPI please remember you are still an overall  downtrend it's important to remember that because   the sell-off or the Snapback can be quite vicious  and it could as I said beyond CPI which kickstarts   catalyzes the next leg down in the New Zealand  dollar market okay so starting with aussiecad   now the Aussie pairs to the downside and the pound  pairs to the downside are the two top setups that   I've been looking at again I highlight the fact  there are no fantastic opportunities at the moment   because nothing is scoring above two or below two  so don't be surprised to see some markets being   choppy and corrective because that is ultimately  what the scorecards are showing however I do like   these four on balance and if we get a sell-off  in the dollar there's not really much between   these as what's better and what's worse but I  do think the pound pairs could actually slightly   underperform or rather I should say do better than  the Aussie pairs over here to the downside because   the pound is not a commodity currency so if the  Dollar's selling off there's a good chance you see   the commodity currencies here outperforming the  pound whereas the Aussie is a commodity currency   so these markets could actually not do as well as  the pound pairs if the dollar starts sell off so   just better in mind next week but I think all four  of these are the better opportunity is out there   we are turning to the downside so any continued  pullback you can see we've already started to   break down this is simply viewed as an opportunity  to look for shorts into the lows if you want to   be conservative and the next key of support  is 0.8522 both commodity currencies but the   Australian dollar is struggling recently against  a New Zealand dollar any continued pullback in   this market is viewed as a correction and I'm  looking for the declines down to the lows again   if you want to be conservative and then on to the  1.0809 next is pound CAD now based on the fact as  

I said that you have a non-commodity currency  set to decline against commodity currency and   that's exactly what you would expect to see  with a dollar sell-off I do favor the pound   pairs over the Aussie pairs next week any pullback  you can see we've had a head and shoulders break   here with momentum any pullback especially if we  come back near to retest the lows over here this   is simply viewed as an opportunity to look for  shorts down to the 1.5082 I do like this setup   for further declines next week League next is  pound New Zealand now again a bigger Head and   Shoulders reversal in this market and we started  to break with momentum any pullback in this market   is simply viewed as a correction as an opportunity  to look for shorts down to the 1.8864 and again if   we get that dollar sell-off like I think we  will it is the pound pairs to the downside   that I think will be the better markets next week  next is cab Frank now these are not highlighted in   Gold because as you can see these are actually  counter to an oval downtrend and I do think we   sell off down to these levels ultimately but the  question is when could it be on a hotter CPI print   next Thursday absolutely it could be that is what  could tank stocks and that is what could rally the   dollar and cause a flight to safety which would  be CAD Frank to the downside once again so any   pullback in this market especially if we come back  and re-test this high this is viewed as a possible   opportunity next week albeit counter Trend and  it would be an opportunity to look for Longs into   the 0.74 four seven and the final Forex pair here  is New Zealand Frank now again this Market is not   highlighted in Gold because the overall trend is  down I am looking for the 0.55 120 at some point   but we need to see risk off coming back into the  markets as it currently stands any pullback is   viewed as a potential opportunity to look for  Longs into the 0.5963 again not highlighted in   Gold because of this counter Trend setup I do  favor especially the pound pairs but also the   Aussie pairs next week in Forex okay so wrapping  up the video with gold silver and Bitcoin look   at the gold silver ratio big sell-off and we've  actually had a major downward sloping which is   usually the most explosive head and shoulders and  we broke out last week so I am looking for this   to pull back and continue loyal which means I do  favor silver Longs over gold Longs next week but   I am near term bullish on both as I think the dxy  heads down to the 109.48 so the First Market here  

is gold and I do like the way this is technically  setting up I think there's a very good good chance   we come to the 1729.48 in gold and out of all of  the dollar pairs if you want to trade something   with a dollar in it gold and potentially silver  would be the markets that I'll be looking at and   favoring next week in order to reflect that bias  of the dollar coming down to the 109.48 so as you   can see a big breakout any pullback in Gold I do  think this is a good opportunity to start to look   for Longs into the 17 to 9.48 and I would not be  surprised to see this happen into the CPI report   on Thursday keep your eye out for gold because  I do like the look of this technically and in   the context of what we talked about with the  dxy next is silver we've had a big breakout of   this previous consolidation here and you can see  really nice momentum to the upside so any pullback   in silver is viewed as an opportunity next week  to look for Longs into the 21.4230 which is the   major breakout to the downside highlighted  in previous videos and if we break through   here I'll be looking up to the 22.49 which is the  next Kiera of resistance to the upside just bear   in mind once the dxy runs into the 109 I'm 480  if it does sell off and we get this rally which   I think is likely you may start to see gold and  silver struggling if we get a bounce especially   from the CPI report on Thursday so just bear that  in mind and last but not least we have Bitcoin we   did break out of a major consolidation last week  and especially if we're going to get some risk on   as the dxy heads down to the 109.48 I am looking  for a pullback you can see we've had this kind  

of uh a b c kind of consolidation over here and  we are now breaking out of this momentum so any   pullback is viewed as an opportunity to look for  Longs and the next key of resistance is the 22   666.20 so that is it for me for this week guys  as always I hope you enjoyed this video and if   you did please let me know by liking sharing  and subscribing a big thank to everybody who   does that on a regular basis and a big thank you  to everybody who has subscribed to the channel so   far if you enjoyed today's video why not consider  joining us during the week where I share my   charts as well as the setups that I'm personally  looking at Trading with members on a daily basis   and we also published the scorecards for over  75 markets in different asset classes including   Forex stocks bonds and commodities you can find  out more about the benefits of GMT membership by   clicking the links in the description below and  also in the pinned comment below so thanks for   watching the only thing left to say is take care  and don't get straight safely [Music] thank you

2022-11-08 02:39

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