$BTC Market moves explained - 10/27/22

$BTC Market moves explained - 10/27/22

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thank you thank you big chat big chats in the house my  friends thank you so much   big thank you big big thank you it's  uh Thursday feels like a Friday though   Thursday October 22nd 2000 October 27th with  a seven 2027 uh 2022. folks thank you so much   thanks for hanging out with me here um this  is one of my very rare live streams I think   the last time I did a live stream was about a  month ago um but you know there's been plenty   uh plenty of content since then so let's kind  of jump right into that look at my YouTube page   I've had a lot of content just in the last month  I mean the last live stream was the advanced   Master Class so first of all if you haven't seen  the video from a month ago you need to watch it   um especially all my students all of my um  serious students um because that's now part   of the playlist Master Class technical analysis  uh tutorials you have to watch all of these   kind of recommend watching all of these before  you risk um even a dollar that's where you need   to start this is this is the best you know  the best I can offer you is in that playlist   um so I did I did an advanced webinar  to to add to the three beginner webinars   uh I've also done one I've uploaded since  the last live stream one two three four   five I've uploaded five more Twitter spaces  conversations this playlist Twitter spaces I have   17 videos they're all like an hour and a half to  two hours of just me answering random questions   like how cool is that and it's like the kind of  questions you would be asking uh thank you so   much Bob it's great to see you as well it would  be like um uh it would be like you know whatever   questions you want to ask I I pretty much answer  them if you're a news Trader if you're struggling   it's a great place for you to start um just play  this play it while you're driving to work uh you   know play it while you're going for a walk work  through these You're Gonna Learn so much so you   know since the last time we've talked uh I I've  uploaded five more spaces I also uploaded lesson   18 uh from Trading wisdom I am the author of  trading wisdom that's available right now on   um on Amazon Kindle audiobook hard cup cover uh  and paperback I just had a few new uh new like   reviews that was great love a love kind of the  feedback from people so I got a few new reviews   um but there's a free version on my YouTube  channel Chad's trading if you go to the   playlist trading wisdom I now have 18 of the  50. I'll eventually have the whole book for free   um check that out I will take this opportunity to  mention that I'm about to publish my third book   trading quotes a daily dose of trading wisdom  and it's 365 quotes it's a quote for every day   um and then I do a review every quarter and I talk  about my favorite quotes you're going to love it I   I I keep like almost publishing it but then I put  in more work to it so I'm still still working on   it I think I think uh Thanksgiving by Thanksgiving  I'll have it out so keep an eye on that   um so I did the twit uh trading wisdom I did I had  a nice um you know this wasn't quite like part of   the long-form interview series but I did an update  with chart Mandan who's like he's among the best   and um playlist under my long form I don't think  I ever talked to Dan there it is so that that's   part of the long form interview Series so there's  been content even though I haven't been doing a   live stream but here I am folks um you know how  this works I want you to tell me where you're   from in the world uh we have love from Jordan  folks let me know where you are in the world   it's a worldwide phenomenon um that's what it's  all about what's up Chez nice to see you thank   you so much sick track No Cap that's Church of  eight wheels uh no cap No Cap I've got the moves   I love dancing I mean music moves me and uh you  know you get that Spirit going so for thank you   folks who are staying up I know many of you are  up it's it's two three o'clock in the morning   in Europe or wherever you are you know I feel  you all right I'll make this worth your while   all right on big Chats on Twitter you know that  please check that out I want to remind you I'm a   founding Analyst at Bitcoin live Bitcoin live is  the best team in the world that studies Bitcoin   um I say that uh with No Reservations um it  is the best team in the world that studies   Bitcoin I'm just one member I do a twice a week  full market update I just did one last night   um no matter what's happening in in my life  I stop and do it great team check it out if   you're interested in in taking your trading to the  next level we talked about YouTube we talked about   um my book I just closed that out I didn't  mean to but that is fine um and of course   I'm on Twitter let's jump right into Bitcoin so  what's going on with Bitcoin so what I try to do   in these updates is to try to like you know  do like tweets explained I try to highlight   um you know tweets since my last last time we've  talked so I have some tweets selected I may or may   not like stop and explain all of them but before  I do that I mean we'll just kind of set the table   where are we right so in all honesty not not a  ton has really changed even since my last update   a month ago all right because we're still in a  sideways environment after a move down and we   can kind of contextualize that as being similar to  the sideways movement you know after the move down   here the EMA 34 recapture that kind of flipped  things around you know we've talked talked about   that at Great length um we have price action  below the ma200 price action below the ma200   so we kind of get that so you know in in many ways  we're basically just right back where we were here   um but what's different is kind of the length  of this consolidation I mean it's unusual to   be going sideways for this long you know 137  days if you traded back in the 80-day rectangle   here as many of us did this felt like forever and  now we really have forever you know and a half   with with 131 days it's kind of crazy um at this  point um so you know I think I touched on that   and one of these tweets where I talk about how  you know we should expect a big move given this   um you know continued uh consolidation in  this range but really you don't usually go   this long without you know a breaking breaking  one way or another so you know what's going to   happen next I don't I don't think we know we  definitely don't know for sure but I think if   you try to puzzle the pieces together I think  you get into a situation where you think it's   about a 60 40 bears bear split right bears are  60 percent likely to win this battle but that   means you have you have to have a plan on both  sides right you have to have a plan on both sides   um you know if you if it's going to move to the  upside it's going to have to flip 20 to 5. right   it's going to have to flip 22.5 on the way to the  upside right even if it flips 22.5 it really needs  

really needs 25.5 right to get back up above the  May 12th low and flip you know you know flip the   um the ma200 you know any kind of like Bull Run  any kind of real run any kind of sustained run   not just a bounce where people take profit um  and and the hodlers are like you know where's   the beef you know where's the real run any kind  of real run you know where you're getting up to   35 40K you have to clear ma 200 you have  to clear 25.5 so you have upside pivots   right no matter what you know it's not it's nice  because no matter what like you can get upside   um um exposure if the market turns so it's okay to  say look you know weekly chart is really bearish   weekly charts really bearish we've never  had the chart be this bearish we've never   spent this much time below the ma200 the ma200 in  the history of Bitcoin has never been this flat   I think it's like about a seven percent angle  um it's never been this flat and the more time   we're below it it will eventually flatten out  and roll over um so you know we're in major   Danger on the long-term Trend right look look  at all these nice bounces recaptures the ma200   um and we're really failing here so that shows  um weakness um this time we've spent below the   prior all-time high we're kind of right  there now but we're chopping through it   um I think we're clearly not respecting this as  a level I think the biggest issue is this ma200   um and then you kind of zoom in you look at the  price ema8 interaction we've only closed above   the green line three times since we topped  off we did it here one candle two candles   um and then we had the third candle right here  right there so these these these relief rallies   these mean reversions you know in in kind of um  in the process of consolidating since November of   last year they they've stalled out they've fizzled  out you know at that EMA 8 area so here we are   um we are getting flatter EMA EMAs though so that  you know when you want you think about moving   averages they're best when they're interacted  when the you know when you've kind of sharp action   going on like Crossing this way is good but like  Crossing like this it's like ah it doesn't really   give you much right you need you need a trend  all right you need a trend to reverse to cross   and so um and then I'll get into this  a little bit more later with Bitcoin I   have a couple tweets marked out but you  see how the Mas are flattening out so   um you keep that in mind you know  even though we've only closed over   three times it's becoming less important as  the moving average flattens out this much   um you know we're in this is just an unusual um  unusual time to spend in in this tighter range   as we kind of see you saw on the daily chart now  we're seeing that now on the weekly a little bit   with the moving averages starting to flatten  out the 20 starting to flatten out um you know   normally you know look at this we're at the ma20  you say Okay Chad but hey you know Chad look it's   the first time we've um hey thank you thank you  for for showing up you say you know hey Chad it's   the first time we've tagged the daily ma20 since  um you know since April that's something right   yeah that's definitely something but it's not  as if we tagged it here on a sharp reaction off   you know this should be like a momentum move right  you have that overreaction dip lower Bollinger and   momentum it's stalled out here ema8 it couldn't  make it so this move just like flat into the 20.   um that's different contexts so that's that  thing this is a great way you know opportunity   to point out it's not always about the level  or the price it's about how it gets there in   the context of it so that's setting the table  in the weekly chart and the daily chart let's   get through these or we'll um we'll be going  forever BTC let's see what do we think about   this so what happened here I wanted to highlight  this tweet Advanced block and eth tweezer at the   upper Bollinger let's see if the market can  push through that all right so what was that   put that here okay and we'll go to the daily  chart all right so okay that was right around   um the height of this relief rally so I mean so  in this channel right so you know you gotta you   gotta have to use the Bollinger Bands and you  kind of see what happened here that we talked   about the triple negative Divergence um you  know the rising wedge all that good stuff and   you drop down you're kind of testing the bottom  of the channel you know that's all pretty basic   um but then you have the lower to Upper bonds  removed in a downtrend right like always pay   attention to that always always always and so  we're up here and it's green green green I mean   and now we're m.a50 and like you're you're in  the back of your mind you're you know this is   where you're dropping a four hour even maybe one  hour and you're looking for a topping pattern   um and then you get the up thrust right here next  day you know goes up above closes below and it's   kind of nasty uh outside bar um just kind of  a devastating candle um but you know you could   see here um the day before the advanced block  forming and really what you see is the kind of   candle progression the candle body progression big  to medium to small so you kind of always observing   candle body progression as a representation of  the momentum and the force you know of the move   and then we're approaching ma50 and boom nice  acceleration move it looks like that was a fake   out and then it gives it back right so you often  see in these topping areas lots of fake outs in   both directions so it's not clean and easy um you  know unless you're really patient and each try has   a you know a tight stop loss and you know you're  not waiting around forever you know you might have   tried here and been stopped out but then you you  know you wait a little bit and then you get the   up thrust right right there you know the up thrust  you break a resistance and come back below it boom   right you always pay attention to that right a  swing failure um so you know so here we heard   were uh for for for Bitcoins basically be on guard  and it wasn't like the exact top it's not like I'm   saying hey oh I I spotted the top no it it's it's  that what I'm trying to show is the market gave us   a clue to start looking for a a top um and it was  there it was there just the next day and really   the day out into the day after it kind of formed  here over the next couple days and it made sense   because it's a lower to Upper Bollinger band move  in a downtrend all right um let's see at 5am and   watching you that's awesome fantastic good to see  you uh my friend uh gagan deep um so look let's   see what happened so that was that now let's take  a look at what happened on ethereum as well right   so we need to feel like we're in control right  and so let's see what happened boom right there   right at the top of the move and what is it it's  just a simple tweezer a tweezer top we see it and   why are we looking for it why are we looking for  it it's a lower to Upper Bollinger band move kind   of in a downward corrective Channel we already  know we're likely you know we start to get um   you know support breakdowns we already know we're  kind of in the downward channel so you get a   lower to Upper Bollinger band move and then the  tweezers forming boom right so tweezer there it   was and we're just you know eth tweezer Apple  bolt let's see if the market can push through   it didn't but you know what was nice is the price  gave us some type of a warning uh for that okay so   what let's see this is just me saying generally  um this is uh September 16th you know what we   really need to bottom is some type of a high  volume flush right we need something to change   um the current Dynamic right you know this is  just this you know nothing's happening here   we're drifting lower we're just gonna weird boring  sideways um without any real volume or volatility   in my history and in my kind of experience  trading Bitcoin and not just that but my you   know my studies of of of classical charting and  just kind of understanding Trend analysis is when   you think about momentum you need you need and  I always try to like use these War analogies but   um you need momentum a momentum shift right I  need you know I spend all my resources to capture   a hill from you in a battle and then you quickly  counter attack and I you know I lose that battle   in the hill but I've got nothing in in reserves  because I used everything to capture the hill so   now you're gonna roll over and just take you know  take my territory it's momentum um so you look   for something like that and you you know we often  would get that with um a panic high volume flush I   mean if we get it it'd be like the best thing and  it's so it's it's some account counter intuitive   um I think a lot of people um you know I think a  lot of people would just you know be freaking out   but that's what we need is we need people to be  freaking out in order for like a true bottom to   be put in that's my main thesis and that's why  I'm saying you know 60 you know partially what   I'm saying 60 likely to go lower we looked at the  technicals in the weekly but again just to remind   you we have trigger levels to go long if the price  shows me something new you know I'll always adjust   my thesis if the price shows me something um  else so that is that that's a Bitcoin needs   um well this is whatever this is just this is just  me saying to people there's just a lot of people   you know what was this I I saw there's a lot of  people and I try to you know I paid a little bit   of attention but who who didn't call the top who  were very bullish at the top who are saying now   like here's what I hate when I hear um  everyone's expecting everyone was wrong   at the top uh so now everyone's expecting 13k so  they're probably wrong again but like what is that   I mean what is that that annoys me it's like  why should just because people were wrong before   um they're they're right in the sense that  they're wrong now like why are we even paying   attention to them like why not pay attention to  the people who were right before right and so   like you know I've been looking for you know team  I've been looking at the low teens you know since   March you know we've talked about that March  April and um just because like the rest of the   people catch up I have to like abandon that like  I don't get that you know we need we should pay   attention to people who got it right before and  not like it's just whole thing where it's like   um we wash our hands from ever you know being able  to make a good decision because most people are   wrong it was just I don't know it's just one  of those things where I was responding to to   that and basically you know you know it's it's not  that important so I've said what I wanted to say   um you know this is this is the thing to  keep in mind you you should always be able to   um you know it should always be able to present um  you know both like the bull and hey David thanks   man good to see you um you should always be able  to present both a bull and bearish thesis and even   though you know I'm you know I you know I'm lean  bearish because the price leans bearish but I'm   still kind of you know looking for a bull thesis I  want to be I don't want to get caught off guard um   so I'm always trying to look for and that's a good  exercise you know if you can argue for both sides   um you know it's like being a good lawyer but  if you can argue for both sides you won't get   caught off guard and so you know the the bull  thesis has always been a w and you know here I   was talking about a w inside of w but we never  we didn't form that second w uh let's go to   that's eth let's get back to bitcoin though so we  didn't form that second W so we've you know for   on on all my streams this is just quick review  talk about the three W's the um you know double   bottom higher low double bottom equal low double  bottom lower low we've talked about all those   it's the best type type three here right with the  spring classical double bot classic double bottom   trough trough time interval price distance Peak  to trough um you know trough Peak up here and   here essentially just the higher low um so you  know we've talked about those as potential W   um you know possibilities you can look at this  and this is kind of what Bitcoin tried to do on   the four hour at around 50k right here uh you  can zoom in you can see that a little bit right   um and that's been covered in my channel other  other channels if you're if you're curious for   more go look that up but the you know double  bottom potential you know but where is this like   what are we doing here this you know so I say w  inside W and so we go here's the first and it's   thinking all right boom but we just didn't you  know never happened you know kind of flattened out   so you've got this kind of kind of um just flat  you know right wing or right kind of um right side   of this consolidation Channel and yeah whatever  little minor breakout level here but um you know   look at that we're right back below it so um I  think you know again just to back to the original   how I originally presented it I think you have to  stay kind of stalwart or or just kind of strong   in the sense that you're waiting for 22.5 or some  type of a price interaction you know with the with   the bottom of the channel um both thesis so that  that's again I'm presenting the bull thesis but   it couldn't even follow through in the double w  the double w there um yeah look at Union Sushi so   there's actually a lot of alts that have given us  some nice short setups walk through that uni head   multiples this is back here so let's see the  chart has changed a lot since this tweet but   back here I mean look at that that's gorgeous  as far as the short setup goes it's beautiful   um because you know try to just Let's do let's  just remove what's not important yet so this is   what we're dealing with here when we have the  Tweet we have uh you know let's move that the   price is clearly um you know topped off or below  the moving averages now we're below the 50. you  

kind of understand you know what you're dealing  with right um and then we have again the lowered   upper Bollinger band move the lower to Upper  Bollinger band move are you noticing the theme   um let's see so you get the lower to Upper  Bollinger band move and then here outside bar   right this entire candle eclipses the range of  the prior candle and gave you an up thrust over   this high so just gorgeous beautiful beautiful  textbook set up you've got really three strong   um points uh from just a basic uh you know a bare  thesis lowered upper Bollinger band move outside   bar and the up thrust you you know then you have  point four M and the ma200 underside I mean that's   you know that that's kind of up there with kind  of top tier setups just kind of based on that   um and then you have the beautiful move they had  a beautiful flush from there and you know it's   still within like a decent potential bottoming  structure and you can get that you know Bulls   still have some type of a general rounded bottom  type of case I mean but if you're just trading   a channel I mean lowered upper Bollinger band  in a downtrend um you know the outside bar and   now you're kind of watching here choppy choppy you  could have played the ma200 boom Another rejection   and now recapturing the 200 um but then we get  the shooting star today shooting star small   candle body right A Star is a doji or a spinning  top which is a small real candle body you need uh   at least twice the size of the body upper Shadow  you get that so you get a shooting star with the   up thrust so that's like pretty decent but that's  not as good as here this was a great short setup   this is like a you know pretty okay pretty decent  little short setup but this is really good because   you're below the 200 here you're above the 200.  so this is not as good this is more like a Grade B   you know type of setup right so you can kind  of see the difference there um thank you very   much about your first book off Amazon what  a great read I appreciate that I I hope you   um I hope you enjoy my next book and thank you so  much so that was uni and sushi at that time what   was Sushi doing at that time because the chart has  changed and I do want to talk about some of the   recent altcoins uh setups and what they're doing  right now it's right here as well so this we were   looking at Sushi as well because these are down  Trends you kind of zoom out how do I know it's a   downtrend there's your falling ma200 the Blue Line  simple moving average know you're in a downtrend   um and you're bouncing here essentially from  the bottom of support or Demand right up to   resistance or Supply and you're just again looking  for up thrusts I always just look for that I just   look for a resistance broken and then not hold  held I mean it's just simple it's it's you know   keep it simple I'm telling you Springs and up  thrusts so that's we were looking at for sushi   um I'll get back to these other trade these other  tweets but I will say like Ada beautiful beautiful   short setup on Ada um you kind of wait and this is  the thing you know then Bitcoin Live members I get   this question a lot from them and it's um where  it will be in and kind of one of these bleeding   slow bleed uh times and you know can I short this  and I and I just remind them it's like you need   a bounce to short something you need to move to  fade right if you want to go long wait for a dip   if you want to go short wait for a  rip and you wait for a well-defined   kind of balance where everyone's starting to  believe again and you just step back you trust   your charting and you look at support support  support that's been lost you know it's resistance   right you know it's resistant I'm a 50 and then  we get the candle action we start getting this   upper Shadow action here spinning top indecision  and kind of even before this candle collapsed and   closed you still had this kind of this the feature  of these upper Shadows you even if you're watching   this it wasn't looking good and then it started  to follow through from that so this is just a   really nice really really nice little short  setup um and so you want to kind of learn to   recognize that and and it may seem simple oh how  it can't be that simple where it's just support   turns into resistance well you know it often  really is and what's nice about this type of   strategy is if you're wrong you know immediately  you don't have to hang around forever I mean if   you go up to about like here you're out of the  trade I mean you're not hanging around forever   so like 40 to 5 or whatever I tweeted I  tweeted this setup out it was super simple   um the same thing for Seoul I mean so so not as as  clear not as well defined a short setup as Ada but   it's just a garbage chart and I just I'm telling  you when I see a garbage chart bouncing I am just   I'm looking for a short I mean it's just it's made  to fade it's expected to fade here it's kind of   rejecting again underside of broken support uh  and then just like you know we just close this   candle that's outside bar right ma50 rejection  but how about yesterday you're on watch from   yesterday you are watching you are not I mean  you can't feel good if you're if you're long   you're moving your stop loss up right you  know seeing that that candle interaction so   let's get through these I did that uh let's see  what are we saying here and what are we saying   here this is cool you can cut and paste oh I  didn't want to do that you can cut and paste   and see when I tweeted it all right I tweeted  this here all right so this is where I was kind   of wrong this is where I love I enjoy kind of  pointing out where I'm wrong a little bit I say   okay daily I may answer sideways this is true  so you observe this you're like all these Mas   are sideways so um you should remind yourself  not to overreact to a moving average cross   um and that given that they're all sideways like  they're just not as valuable in that environment   moving averages are much more valuable used with  volatility especially ema8 resistance on the way   down right or on the way up but inside sideways  who cares about a moving average or sideways you   know what your average is it's sideways it's just  your you know you don't need a moving average so   um you know basically I'm I'm reminding people  when I'm saying this I'm tweeting this out   um they're all sideways and I'm trying to  tell you maybe and I'm not always explicit   right I don't always explain every tweet  that's what these videos are good for and   the master class webinars and Bitcoin live and  my books and all that you know you can read a   textbook too I mean you know moving averages  going sideways you know you understand that   or you should be able to it's up you know  you have the ability to learn these things   um but it you know I'm all but I'm pointing out  here this is unusual and will not will not last   we're in the cusp of a large move you know  if to me everything here back here October   8th that's like whatever a couple weeks ago I'm  thinking we're ready to to like rip or dip strong   and what did I get another like two weeks of  sideways I was I was completely wrong you know   that's how unusual this is I was expecting  a big rip and we went sideways for 17 days   so I you know I have to recognize I was expecting  a big move way but we still haven't had it yet   and it's just a reflection on how unusual uh this  trading setup is I mean it is really unusual um so   what do we do right I I still think that that that  suggests everything I've I've studied everything I   know and know through experience that suggests  we have a large move coming that's still true   you know as for when that's out the window I think  it's really hard to time this anyone who's trying   to time this I think they're going to have trouble  so I still think we have a large move coming and   what can we do is play it with the strategies  that we know work we know we can go along at   22.5 manage our risk somewhere in that area maybe  if a stop loss of 22 2 or 3 right we're not going   to hold on forever and then we have confirmation  25 25 5K we get that and there's the bottom   of the channel it's a little bit a little bit  riskier but I think the cleanest way to play it   is on the you know the nut low the  17-6 17-5 low excuse me one second is on that 17-5 uh low and and the ideal scenario  and this is one that I've mentioned for a   long time would be a temporary break of 17.5  sending the market into panic and a recapture   so that's you know that's our best play here on  a dip um you know if it breaks below this low   it's it's gonna be Uncharted Territory in many  ways because we're going to start to form a new   channel so anybody who's going to tell you who  tries to tell you you know that if we break 17   you're going to want to buy at 14 or right at 13.5  nobody knows I I'm calling BS on that because no  

one really knows we have to see if it gets there  we have to see how it gets there and um just   kind of watch the price interaction I I we just  know that there's generally an area of support   um you know real centered around 12K you know  12 to 14K but the meat the meat of the support   is like 12K um so it could bounce before that it  could it may never get there right but these are   things you prepare yourself for and you recognize  where you have a clear play which is 22 5.   or 25 5 and you recognize where you have a you  know decent play here 17.5 you recognize where   you've got chop and you're going to avoid and then  down here it's more like you're gonna have to wait   and see so that's how you have to mark it up you  have to be ready and that way you're kind of ready   in some sense for no matter what happens as best  as you can monster outside bar on daily Bitcoin   I'm glad I'm doing this video it's been a while  I've I've tried I think two or three times to do   this I just didn't have the Mojo or there just  it wasn't anything that was going on it's still   pretty boring but um I'm glad I'm I'm getting  it done um because these this is important work   um monster outside bar and so this is a nice  candle here this is a beautiful candle here   for Bulls right so we talked about up here we  got some really nice candle signals up here   um you know we did that earlier uh ethereum  tweezer and you know the advanced block   um this is a nice can to the outside bar hammer  it's beautiful look at this long lower tail   gorgeous candle after and it's you know it's a  hammer after move down right you want a hammer   candle after move down like like sideways  sideways into a hammer candle like who cares   right it's the same concept it's the same concept  as the moving average sideways you need something   to reverse a hammer candle after sideways is  useless it's nothing it's not nothing but it's   not nearly as good as this after a move down  you know middle Bollinger to lower Bollinger   Hammer I'm sorry pardon me I got out of place  upper Bollinger to lower Bollinger it's a pretty   strong move right in the Channel with the hammer  candle and you know you had some consolidation   but boom high or low and then go and then it  bounce to the upper Bollinger right and now   we're looking for a retracement again and we're  going to get to that in the following tweets   um but here this monster outside bar this is a  nice candle that's gave you some some hope you're   gonna at least do you know a lower to Upper  Bond your band moves and that's what happened uh and then here we go this is from a few days  ago October 14th how time flies huh October 14th   and by the way I'm sorry I'm not really paying  attention to chat room as much as I might I don't   have a team it's just me I'm just a dude hanging  out so there's some great comments and I'm sorry   I'm missing them uh thank you JV thank you so much  um I just don't you know again I'm sorry that I'm   I'm missing your comments but I'm just happy  you're here I'm glad you're hanging out with me   um uh I wear Master privacy actually it's  it's you know I enjoy doing this I want you   to see my body language and to connect  with me and that and I think it makes   um the teaching and the learning better but  it's just privacy um agent it's privacy um   let's see uh Miss thank you appreciate that JV  so that next up we have something we're observing   the ma50 price interaction so this is back here  this is the day after right this is the day after   um I was talking about the outside bar I I'm  I'm also letting you know to pay attention   to the Daily ma50 because I'm saying back  here that the daily ma50 has stalled these   relief rallies the last couple times stalled  it here stalled here so we get the nice bounce   and then what happens right here stalled  again right at the ma50 came back right came back m850 projection and then there we  get our higher there we get our higher low   right there we set our low bounce to the  expected resistance come back so it's one   of those things where if you think something  you know if you think the Bottom's in you're   gonna get a chance for a higher low somewhere  is this magnet modes on this doesn't look right   um but you're gonna get a chance you know you're  gonna get a chance most likely right for a higher   level you think the Bottom's in you're going  to get a chance to um you know somewhere boom   you get like a higher low and you always watch  for that right so here's your higher low ma50   um and so we're paying attention right  daily ma50 we're paying attention right   um going to hunger strike I mean this is just me  basically saying uh I wish there was more going on   um this is funny this one's super funny if before and after the same you just lost money  I mean it's not funny but it's we have to laugh at   ourselves because I mean I've done it I've done it  many times um but you know I'm going on a hunger   strike I want some action it's it's boring and  this you know 17-5 or you know 17 5 which is the   lows of the channel and 22.5 the key pivot level  I've talked about so you get that you understand   um what I'm saying here and let's  see at least bitcoin's trading at 20K   asked me three months ago and this is true so  this is the case so I'm you know again you get I'm   always kind of trying to see all you know all the  the possibilities I'm trying to be as objective   as I can even though I still think Bears probably  will take it down to where it probably wants to go   um I don't want to get caught off guard I  you know I take what I do seriously I find   I'm trying to get better and uh always trying  to get better and um but I'm trying to provide   a service too and I want to be good right I'm  competitive I want to be really good at what I do   and um so you have to kind of always be you  know even if I'm thinking I'm really bearish   I'm asking myself well am I missing something  it's okay we're still at 20K you know uh we're   still at 20K it's crazy I mean I really at this  point I'm saying here I am a week ago saying I   would have thought we'd already broken down by now  and that is true you know after this action here   you know after the triple Divergence the  outside bar you know the rising much breakdown   you know I would have thought we would have broken  down you know at the at latest really September   you know because I was always thinking  October bottom for Bitcoin for some reason   I was thinking Q4 bottom and maybe get that  lower low in September um September October   and we you know we we don't have it yet I  mean you know we tested it a couple times so   um you know so I have to it have to be true and  say say to myself you know I was expecting this   we'd be lower by now and we're not we're still at  20K and that's still true and here we are at 20K   so you know say what you will and we're still  at 20K so that's what that tweet is all about   um now this is Chad's you know it's like  Chad's saying to your to you you know   um you know why don't you wait wait another  hour before you drive drink some water you   know you're not ready to drive yet you had you  had too many drinks I'm the friend who's trying   to get you to you know slow down a little bit  um you know you're not ready yet just chill   out and I think we have to you know respect the  upper Bollinger um and if we look at really the   upper Bollinger right what's happened after  price interaction with the upper Bollinger all right what's happened with the  price after upper Bollinger interaction   right and now we're going to go back to now we're  going back to March I mean we can keep going   you know we can keep going we can keep going  right so um you know December I mean so let's   you know let's let's let's understand that  even if the bottom is in its bottom is in   you know it probably will pull back a  little bit um you know yes uh it could start   the uh you know upper ball the The Faded  the the uh the the Beloved the the mythical   um ema8 to Upper Bollinger type of an uptrend  that we've talked about you you know see the   master class right that's what you get in the  most pure forms of uptrend it's it's impossible   but like I I don't think so I don't see any real  evidence of that um and I think we actually have   some bearish Divergence as well on the obv we have  bearish Divergence right we see an unsupported new   high in the price right we're calculating  Divergent based on the candle body close   close to close this red candle unsupported new  high now it's it's not as bad as it was yesterday   right because yesterday we closed up here  stronger Divergence it's resolved a little   bit you know this Divergence would resolve  with the price around you know 1907 right   essentially the obv matching the slope of  the price it's just a single Divergence   um it's it's not something you would open a short  on but it's just another piece of data especially   with the upper Bollinger band interaction and  I just circled for you I showed you the history   of that and the power of that I mean you got  to play these Bollinger Bands um these lowered   upper Bollinger moves so um you know this is  what I'm saying when I put out this tweet this   is what I'm and then you know it's just a little  a little arrow right I didn't Circle all the tops   I have to make a choice every tweet like  how much effort I put into it I can't spend   I can't like attach three charts on every tweet I  could but like I'd hate what I do I have to I have   to balance it to keep keep going and and to keep  providing value but also to push you to to learn   and all that so you know all you got for me in the  Tweet was this little red arrow but you could now   you get the video from me and I walked you through  it so now you understand uh what I'm trying to say   and this is interesting so so how do now we're  wrapping things up we're back in the last tweet   I started out this chart session by talking about  22.5 the bottom of the channel it's interesting to   see the strength here in ethereum and we see her  Express with the ethereum BTC part BTC pair chart   the relative strength so what does my tweet say my  tweet says the eth strength versus Bitcoin that's   this chart makes you more skeptical of the staying  power of Bitcoin so now I have three data points   I have the price at the upper Bollinger  band one I have the obv bear Divergence 2.   now I've got the strength of ethereum like  ethereum over performing Bitcoin it's not good   for Bitcoin um it helped us spot the top back in  October and November you don't have to believe me   you can just watch my videos um and it you know  it helped us spot this top here on the macro   lower high and that broader consolidation from  the April top you don't have to believe me you   can go watch the videos you know so when you see  ethereum starting to outperform yes it's context   based it's not all you can't always do it doesn't  always mean exactly as cleanly as as I explained   it to mean or I I inferred that it would mean  based on that interaction you know in April   um in the September you know lower high but as  a general concept if you have you think about   money flows if if ethereum's outperforming  like the bitcoin's not leading the way and   Bitcoin needs to lead the way out of this  range um you know thus far we just have   um you know Bitcoin still minor bounce you get  a nicer play off of ethereum that nice 14 20.  

uh 1420 uh flip this is a you know  pretty clean long signal the 14 20 14 30.   um will it bear more fruit I don't  know but it's still so far it's just   um a bounce within a downtrend you know we haven't  even tested the 200 this is above you're looking   at a bounce in a downtrend every trade needs to  start with start with you looking at this blue   line and understanding what you're dealing with  if you're trying to go long you're going against   the trend so you need to be careful going long in  these charts with the Fallen 200. um so far that's   just what we have and here we have this lower high  structure you know we need to see that changed uh   clearly above 1800 you can very confidently go  along you'd be flipping the 200 and that lower   high but this tweet you know is is basically  saying it's just another data point to be more   careful with Bitcoin um and to treat this as a  chop range in here I'm not trading this range it's   a choppy choppy range if you want if you went long  and 20.5 what's your stop loss you're probably   going to get chopped out you might even have been  stopped out already I think we need to wait for   um a major change of structure out of this  channel I think we need to remember we need   to understand uh uh these are the most basic uh  peasant metrics you're about some results that's   what it's all about my friend it's all about  the price and it's all about simple technique   we we can we need to we need to understand  given how long we've been consolidating   in this range it's gonna be a big move so if  you believe that it's going to be a big move   um it doesn't matter that you don't have to  catch every all of it the nut bottom you know   you can miss the first five six percent of it  to ride with the trend so you know and in the   meantime you avoid getting chopped out while  you're waiting for the move to unveil itself   you know we need to wait for more information  um and that's kind of in uh that's the position   we're in right now uh let me just gonna check  in with the chat room folks let me know again   where you're from I want to just I just want  to say hello to you all throughout the world   um let's see what's going on with everybody  checking in the chat room you got this all right   chilling hanging out uh let's see what everyone  is saying in the chat room he teaches you for free   yeah I'm just having fun thank you I enjoy I enjoy  interacting with you folks great stream thank you   hurls thank you so much uh let's see what's going  on catching up with everybody musk has bought   Twitter cool I mean let's see what happens if they  can D if they can deal with that bot situation   um I think that would be great  pure Alpha that's how we do   and thank you for sharing your knowledge again  you need to look you have to watch these videos   this playlist I like like like don't trade  anymore until you've watched these videos   it's gonna help you so much it's gonna help you  so much trust me trust me trust me please watch   these before you risk even another dollar let's  go to the end uh to the new comments below from   Thailand Hawaii what what island uh are you on um  I spent some time in Oahu I was lucky enough spent   some time there uh Flo uh drop the bask I already  told you I'm not gonna drop the mask so why don't   you drop the subject my friend uh India nice to  see you uh as well Al uh Al Atlanta that's ATL um   Al uh let's see Colorado all right on great Jeff  it's great to see you thank you so much thank you   so much Bronx New York New York's a great place  good to see you Isaac thanks for hanging in today   uh New Jersey been there many times Romania  I have not but I'd like to nice to see you   uh from Romania thank you so much uh Philippines  Como estapo nice to see you Rendell I have some   Philippines friends from the Filipinos I mean I've  from friends from the Philippines uh let's see   I started watching beginning of the year that is  awesome that's so great you know you need time   and practice um listen new Traders you need to  do two things watch The Master Class tutorials   and these Twitter spaces are just unbelievable  I'm really proud of this new body of work this   is some of the best stuff you can you can absorb  as a new Trader it's each each uh video it's like   20 25 30 random questions a lot of them are  just like brand new Traders asking questions   um and chances are they're things that you're  you know things that you're thinking about and   problems you're dealing with and these just  honest great conversations check it out the   Big Island all right great to Great to uh  hear you book thank you so much uh book is   incredible thank you so much I appreciate that  Colorado Europe nice to see you from Europe   and Monaco very cool very cool Mexico that's great  that's great Pakistan nice to see you Rhode Island   the Rhode Island Plantation uh what's going on  nice to see you Brazil Bona Noche Falcon Island   Malaysia Ohio ta's fun man I'm glad I inspired you  that's this is great folks Melbourne folks thanks   for indulging me um I try to add value but without  you um it did you know Canada I love Canada uh and   turkey I'm watching this show called Resurrection  erdogrel uh it's about like um 13th 14th century   um like the uh the seljuks like the the Turkish  you know the Turks back then and it's really   interesting each season's like 70 episodes  it's ridiculous but um it's interesting into   I'm into it it's interesting Munich very cool  uh Singapore wonderful folks thanks for hanging   out with me here tonight I don't often do these  as you know but we started out and I reminded   you that since the last time we have um spoken  in this format I've put out a decent amount of   content and they're still like tiny views I mean  it's dead out there but you know doesn't mean you   um can't take advantage of what's out there five  Twitter spaces since the last time we talked great   conversation with one of my my most favorite you  know Traders out there chart Mandan uh new version   of my book I'll probably do um actually two new  version 17 and 18 two chapters I'll probably do   another one in the next week or so um I'll just  take that opportunity to remind you I'm getting   ready to publish trading quotes this will be  out by Thanksgiving 365 quotes one quote a day   um and I do like a quarterly Roundup where I  talk about my favorite quotes it's a really   cool project I wanted to publish it earlier but  I keep working on it I keep refining it like you   just it's just it's just maddening writing a book  is maddening it's never done you keep refining it   you keep refining it um it's never done thank you  Simon it's great to have you Lisbon cashmere as   well Lisbon as well okay Dixie analysis all  right a couple people asked we'll do that   so I mean Dixie's still in an uptrend um but  barely I mean you know we look at Dixie I mean   clearly it's a strong Trend you would play this I  mean whatever this is you know you're gonna say I   want to be long in this I think you know if we're  being honest right if you just look at this chart   um you know if you look at this chart you  know if you look at this chart you're gonna   be You're Gonna Wanna Go long right all  the moving averages are rising uh ma-200   is rising you know I kind of circled here  what it had what has happened in the past   with the price drip dipping you know to the lower  Bollinger and the ma50 so this is a level where   like if you're betting if if I was just to show  you this chart and say you know if you had to   guess whether we're going to go to you know 108  first or like 112 first you have to bet 112.  

it's just more just what we're seeing right now  and yes I get that we've had a nice we'd have a   pretty big drop here from whatever 115. it's still  bullish in my view you know based on my system   my understanding of technical analysis you know  this is the prior high that we we've recaptured   you know I think as long as we're you know given  the proximity of this High to the lower Bollinger   band and the ma50 up here like this is the  stop loss this is the level where I think   you'd really start to say okay this this trend  has lost momentum so this is the level you know   anything above 109 I am strong um strongly believe  in the Bulls will continue right but this you know   below that I'm thinking okay we're probably maybe  we're going to ma200 you know if we get below 109   so we're right there but you know but still I mean  look at this look at this strong uptrend it's just   it's just a retracement to ma50 and we're still  holding the prior High so um you know that that's   that's my dxy analysis um buy big what I mean what  you know I wouldn't buy anything big I think you   need to scale into your position the idea of you  don't buy big what you should do is start small   um and you can add into your position either if  you know let's say you're holding for a longer   term you start small maybe if it goes to the  next key level you can add a little bit more   or if it continues and it's doing  what you thought it was going to do   um and it recap you know say you're long and  it recaptures a key level you can add more you   can add into it like you shouldn't just buy big I  mean you're setting yourself up for disaster large   positions are incredibly difficult to manage uh  uh Netherlands all right that's it I'm big Chats   on Twitter it's been an honor I've enjoyed  doing this check me out on Twitter the book   is available on Amazon in four format Kindle  hardcover audiobook or paperback you can get   the book for free on my YouTube in the playlist  trading wisdom 50 lessons every Trader should know   the book has a great uh reviews thank you to  everyone appreciate uh your feedback I'm glad   that the book has resonated check out the rest of  my work on YouTube I highly recommend you watch   The Master Class tutorials new Traders new Traders  must watch the and listen to these Twitter spaces   conversations you must must listen to these when  you're ready when you're serious you join Bitcoin   live Bitcoin live is the best in class educational  platform for crypto I think the best team in the   world that covers Bitcoin I'm a founding analyst  it's just an unbelievable team nothing comes close   to it I personally do twice a week full market  update when you join you get access to everyone's   stuff um it's just a great team check it out  if you want to take your game to the next level   um but look there's just great  free resources out there as well   so so take advantage of the free stuff  soak it up and if you're ready move on   um thanks for hanging out here with me here  tonight this video will go into the playlist uh   uh this video will go into the playlist for uh  this is going to play for quick Market updates   nope that is yeah Market moves explained yep  Market moves explained so this would go into   this playlist and uh that is that so who cares  about playlists we're here to dance we're here   to dance let's get this going folks anyway  before I dance just want to say thanks again   thanks for hanging out stay strong bet small use  your trading journal and I think you'll be okay thank you foreign foreign

2022-11-01 03:33

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