$BTC Market moves explained - 10/27/22
thank you thank you big chat big chats in the house my friends thank you so much big thank you big big thank you it's uh Thursday feels like a Friday though Thursday October 22nd 2000 October 27th with a seven 2027 uh 2022. folks thank you so much thanks for hanging out with me here um this is one of my very rare live streams I think the last time I did a live stream was about a month ago um but you know there's been plenty uh plenty of content since then so let's kind of jump right into that look at my YouTube page I've had a lot of content just in the last month I mean the last live stream was the advanced Master Class so first of all if you haven't seen the video from a month ago you need to watch it um especially all my students all of my um serious students um because that's now part of the playlist Master Class technical analysis uh tutorials you have to watch all of these kind of recommend watching all of these before you risk um even a dollar that's where you need to start this is this is the best you know the best I can offer you is in that playlist um so I did I did an advanced webinar to to add to the three beginner webinars uh I've also done one I've uploaded since the last live stream one two three four five I've uploaded five more Twitter spaces conversations this playlist Twitter spaces I have 17 videos they're all like an hour and a half to two hours of just me answering random questions like how cool is that and it's like the kind of questions you would be asking uh thank you so much Bob it's great to see you as well it would be like um uh it would be like you know whatever questions you want to ask I I pretty much answer them if you're a news Trader if you're struggling it's a great place for you to start um just play this play it while you're driving to work uh you know play it while you're going for a walk work through these You're Gonna Learn so much so you know since the last time we've talked uh I I've uploaded five more spaces I also uploaded lesson 18 uh from Trading wisdom I am the author of trading wisdom that's available right now on um on Amazon Kindle audiobook hard cup cover uh and paperback I just had a few new uh new like reviews that was great love a love kind of the feedback from people so I got a few new reviews um but there's a free version on my YouTube channel Chad's trading if you go to the playlist trading wisdom I now have 18 of the 50. I'll eventually have the whole book for free um check that out I will take this opportunity to mention that I'm about to publish my third book trading quotes a daily dose of trading wisdom and it's 365 quotes it's a quote for every day um and then I do a review every quarter and I talk about my favorite quotes you're going to love it I I I keep like almost publishing it but then I put in more work to it so I'm still still working on it I think I think uh Thanksgiving by Thanksgiving I'll have it out so keep an eye on that um so I did the twit uh trading wisdom I did I had a nice um you know this wasn't quite like part of the long-form interview series but I did an update with chart Mandan who's like he's among the best and um playlist under my long form I don't think I ever talked to Dan there it is so that that's part of the long form interview Series so there's been content even though I haven't been doing a live stream but here I am folks um you know how this works I want you to tell me where you're from in the world uh we have love from Jordan folks let me know where you are in the world it's a worldwide phenomenon um that's what it's all about what's up Chez nice to see you thank you so much sick track No Cap that's Church of eight wheels uh no cap No Cap I've got the moves I love dancing I mean music moves me and uh you know you get that Spirit going so for thank you folks who are staying up I know many of you are up it's it's two three o'clock in the morning in Europe or wherever you are you know I feel you all right I'll make this worth your while all right on big Chats on Twitter you know that please check that out I want to remind you I'm a founding Analyst at Bitcoin live Bitcoin live is the best team in the world that studies Bitcoin um I say that uh with No Reservations um it is the best team in the world that studies Bitcoin I'm just one member I do a twice a week full market update I just did one last night um no matter what's happening in in my life I stop and do it great team check it out if you're interested in in taking your trading to the next level we talked about YouTube we talked about um my book I just closed that out I didn't mean to but that is fine um and of course I'm on Twitter let's jump right into Bitcoin so what's going on with Bitcoin so what I try to do in these updates is to try to like you know do like tweets explained I try to highlight um you know tweets since my last last time we've talked so I have some tweets selected I may or may not like stop and explain all of them but before I do that I mean we'll just kind of set the table where are we right so in all honesty not not a ton has really changed even since my last update a month ago all right because we're still in a sideways environment after a move down and we can kind of contextualize that as being similar to the sideways movement you know after the move down here the EMA 34 recapture that kind of flipped things around you know we've talked talked about that at Great length um we have price action below the ma200 price action below the ma200 so we kind of get that so you know in in many ways we're basically just right back where we were here um but what's different is kind of the length of this consolidation I mean it's unusual to be going sideways for this long you know 137 days if you traded back in the 80-day rectangle here as many of us did this felt like forever and now we really have forever you know and a half with with 131 days it's kind of crazy um at this point um so you know I think I touched on that and one of these tweets where I talk about how you know we should expect a big move given this um you know continued uh consolidation in this range but really you don't usually go this long without you know a breaking breaking one way or another so you know what's going to happen next I don't I don't think we know we definitely don't know for sure but I think if you try to puzzle the pieces together I think you get into a situation where you think it's about a 60 40 bears bear split right bears are 60 percent likely to win this battle but that means you have you have to have a plan on both sides right you have to have a plan on both sides um you know if you if it's going to move to the upside it's going to have to flip 20 to 5. right it's going to have to flip 22.5 on the way to the upside right even if it flips 22.5 it really needs
really needs 25.5 right to get back up above the May 12th low and flip you know you know flip the um the ma200 you know any kind of like Bull Run any kind of real run any kind of sustained run not just a bounce where people take profit um and and the hodlers are like you know where's the beef you know where's the real run any kind of real run you know where you're getting up to 35 40K you have to clear ma 200 you have to clear 25.5 so you have upside pivots right no matter what you know it's not it's nice because no matter what like you can get upside um um exposure if the market turns so it's okay to say look you know weekly chart is really bearish weekly charts really bearish we've never had the chart be this bearish we've never spent this much time below the ma200 the ma200 in the history of Bitcoin has never been this flat I think it's like about a seven percent angle um it's never been this flat and the more time we're below it it will eventually flatten out and roll over um so you know we're in major Danger on the long-term Trend right look look at all these nice bounces recaptures the ma200 um and we're really failing here so that shows um weakness um this time we've spent below the prior all-time high we're kind of right there now but we're chopping through it um I think we're clearly not respecting this as a level I think the biggest issue is this ma200 um and then you kind of zoom in you look at the price ema8 interaction we've only closed above the green line three times since we topped off we did it here one candle two candles um and then we had the third candle right here right there so these these these relief rallies these mean reversions you know in in kind of um in the process of consolidating since November of last year they they've stalled out they've fizzled out you know at that EMA 8 area so here we are um we are getting flatter EMA EMAs though so that you know when you want you think about moving averages they're best when they're interacted when the you know when you've kind of sharp action going on like Crossing this way is good but like Crossing like this it's like ah it doesn't really give you much right you need you need a trend all right you need a trend to reverse to cross and so um and then I'll get into this a little bit more later with Bitcoin I have a couple tweets marked out but you see how the Mas are flattening out so um you keep that in mind you know even though we've only closed over three times it's becoming less important as the moving average flattens out this much um you know we're in this is just an unusual um unusual time to spend in in this tighter range as we kind of see you saw on the daily chart now we're seeing that now on the weekly a little bit with the moving averages starting to flatten out the 20 starting to flatten out um you know normally you know look at this we're at the ma20 you say Okay Chad but hey you know Chad look it's the first time we've um hey thank you thank you for for showing up you say you know hey Chad it's the first time we've tagged the daily ma20 since um you know since April that's something right yeah that's definitely something but it's not as if we tagged it here on a sharp reaction off you know this should be like a momentum move right you have that overreaction dip lower Bollinger and momentum it's stalled out here ema8 it couldn't make it so this move just like flat into the 20. um that's different contexts so that's that thing this is a great way you know opportunity to point out it's not always about the level or the price it's about how it gets there in the context of it so that's setting the table in the weekly chart and the daily chart let's get through these or we'll um we'll be going forever BTC let's see what do we think about this so what happened here I wanted to highlight this tweet Advanced block and eth tweezer at the upper Bollinger let's see if the market can push through that all right so what was that put that here okay and we'll go to the daily chart all right so okay that was right around um the height of this relief rally so I mean so in this channel right so you know you gotta you gotta have to use the Bollinger Bands and you kind of see what happened here that we talked about the triple negative Divergence um you know the rising wedge all that good stuff and you drop down you're kind of testing the bottom of the channel you know that's all pretty basic um but then you have the lower to Upper bonds removed in a downtrend right like always pay attention to that always always always and so we're up here and it's green green green I mean and now we're m.a50 and like you're you're in the back of your mind you're you know this is where you're dropping a four hour even maybe one hour and you're looking for a topping pattern um and then you get the up thrust right here next day you know goes up above closes below and it's kind of nasty uh outside bar um just kind of a devastating candle um but you know you could see here um the day before the advanced block forming and really what you see is the kind of candle progression the candle body progression big to medium to small so you kind of always observing candle body progression as a representation of the momentum and the force you know of the move and then we're approaching ma50 and boom nice acceleration move it looks like that was a fake out and then it gives it back right so you often see in these topping areas lots of fake outs in both directions so it's not clean and easy um you know unless you're really patient and each try has a you know a tight stop loss and you know you're not waiting around forever you know you might have tried here and been stopped out but then you you know you wait a little bit and then you get the up thrust right right there you know the up thrust you break a resistance and come back below it boom right you always pay attention to that right a swing failure um so you know so here we heard were uh for for for Bitcoins basically be on guard and it wasn't like the exact top it's not like I'm saying hey oh I I spotted the top no it it's it's that what I'm trying to show is the market gave us a clue to start looking for a a top um and it was there it was there just the next day and really the day out into the day after it kind of formed here over the next couple days and it made sense because it's a lower to Upper Bollinger band move in a downtrend all right um let's see at 5am and watching you that's awesome fantastic good to see you uh my friend uh gagan deep um so look let's see what happened so that was that now let's take a look at what happened on ethereum as well right so we need to feel like we're in control right and so let's see what happened boom right there right at the top of the move and what is it it's just a simple tweezer a tweezer top we see it and why are we looking for it why are we looking for it it's a lower to Upper Bollinger band move kind of in a downward corrective Channel we already know we're likely you know we start to get um you know support breakdowns we already know we're kind of in the downward channel so you get a lower to Upper Bollinger band move and then the tweezers forming boom right so tweezer there it was and we're just you know eth tweezer Apple bolt let's see if the market can push through it didn't but you know what was nice is the price gave us some type of a warning uh for that okay so what let's see this is just me saying generally um this is uh September 16th you know what we really need to bottom is some type of a high volume flush right we need something to change um the current Dynamic right you know this is just this you know nothing's happening here we're drifting lower we're just gonna weird boring sideways um without any real volume or volatility in my history and in my kind of experience trading Bitcoin and not just that but my you know my studies of of of classical charting and just kind of understanding Trend analysis is when you think about momentum you need you need and I always try to like use these War analogies but um you need momentum a momentum shift right I need you know I spend all my resources to capture a hill from you in a battle and then you quickly counter attack and I you know I lose that battle in the hill but I've got nothing in in reserves because I used everything to capture the hill so now you're gonna roll over and just take you know take my territory it's momentum um so you look for something like that and you you know we often would get that with um a panic high volume flush I mean if we get it it'd be like the best thing and it's so it's it's some account counter intuitive um I think a lot of people um you know I think a lot of people would just you know be freaking out but that's what we need is we need people to be freaking out in order for like a true bottom to be put in that's my main thesis and that's why I'm saying you know 60 you know partially what I'm saying 60 likely to go lower we looked at the technicals in the weekly but again just to remind you we have trigger levels to go long if the price shows me something new you know I'll always adjust my thesis if the price shows me something um else so that is that that's a Bitcoin needs um well this is whatever this is just this is just me saying to people there's just a lot of people you know what was this I I saw there's a lot of people and I try to you know I paid a little bit of attention but who who didn't call the top who were very bullish at the top who are saying now like here's what I hate when I hear um everyone's expecting everyone was wrong at the top uh so now everyone's expecting 13k so they're probably wrong again but like what is that I mean what is that that annoys me it's like why should just because people were wrong before um they're they're right in the sense that they're wrong now like why are we even paying attention to them like why not pay attention to the people who were right before right and so like you know I've been looking for you know team I've been looking at the low teens you know since March you know we've talked about that March April and um just because like the rest of the people catch up I have to like abandon that like I don't get that you know we need we should pay attention to people who got it right before and not like it's just whole thing where it's like um we wash our hands from ever you know being able to make a good decision because most people are wrong it was just I don't know it's just one of those things where I was responding to to that and basically you know you know it's it's not that important so I've said what I wanted to say um you know this is this is the thing to keep in mind you you should always be able to um you know it should always be able to present um you know both like the bull and hey David thanks man good to see you um you should always be able to present both a bull and bearish thesis and even though you know I'm you know I you know I'm lean bearish because the price leans bearish but I'm still kind of you know looking for a bull thesis I want to be I don't want to get caught off guard um so I'm always trying to look for and that's a good exercise you know if you can argue for both sides um you know it's like being a good lawyer but if you can argue for both sides you won't get caught off guard and so you know the the bull thesis has always been a w and you know here I was talking about a w inside of w but we never we didn't form that second w uh let's go to that's eth let's get back to bitcoin though so we didn't form that second W so we've you know for on on all my streams this is just quick review talk about the three W's the um you know double bottom higher low double bottom equal low double bottom lower low we've talked about all those it's the best type type three here right with the spring classical double bot classic double bottom trough trough time interval price distance Peak to trough um you know trough Peak up here and here essentially just the higher low um so you know we've talked about those as potential W um you know possibilities you can look at this and this is kind of what Bitcoin tried to do on the four hour at around 50k right here uh you can zoom in you can see that a little bit right um and that's been covered in my channel other other channels if you're if you're curious for more go look that up but the you know double bottom potential you know but where is this like what are we doing here this you know so I say w inside W and so we go here's the first and it's thinking all right boom but we just didn't you know never happened you know kind of flattened out so you've got this kind of kind of um just flat you know right wing or right kind of um right side of this consolidation Channel and yeah whatever little minor breakout level here but um you know look at that we're right back below it so um I think you know again just to back to the original how I originally presented it I think you have to stay kind of stalwart or or just kind of strong in the sense that you're waiting for 22.5 or some type of a price interaction you know with the with the bottom of the channel um both thesis so that that's again I'm presenting the bull thesis but it couldn't even follow through in the double w the double w there um yeah look at Union Sushi so there's actually a lot of alts that have given us some nice short setups walk through that uni head multiples this is back here so let's see the chart has changed a lot since this tweet but back here I mean look at that that's gorgeous as far as the short setup goes it's beautiful um because you know try to just Let's do let's just remove what's not important yet so this is what we're dealing with here when we have the Tweet we have uh you know let's move that the price is clearly um you know topped off or below the moving averages now we're below the 50. you
kind of understand you know what you're dealing with right um and then we have again the lowered upper Bollinger band move the lower to Upper Bollinger band move are you noticing the theme um let's see so you get the lower to Upper Bollinger band move and then here outside bar right this entire candle eclipses the range of the prior candle and gave you an up thrust over this high so just gorgeous beautiful beautiful textbook set up you've got really three strong um points uh from just a basic uh you know a bare thesis lowered upper Bollinger band move outside bar and the up thrust you you know then you have point four M and the ma200 underside I mean that's you know that that's kind of up there with kind of top tier setups just kind of based on that um and then you have the beautiful move they had a beautiful flush from there and you know it's still within like a decent potential bottoming structure and you can get that you know Bulls still have some type of a general rounded bottom type of case I mean but if you're just trading a channel I mean lowered upper Bollinger band in a downtrend um you know the outside bar and now you're kind of watching here choppy choppy you could have played the ma200 boom Another rejection and now recapturing the 200 um but then we get the shooting star today shooting star small candle body right A Star is a doji or a spinning top which is a small real candle body you need uh at least twice the size of the body upper Shadow you get that so you get a shooting star with the up thrust so that's like pretty decent but that's not as good as here this was a great short setup this is like a you know pretty okay pretty decent little short setup but this is really good because you're below the 200 here you're above the 200. so this is not as good this is more like a Grade B you know type of setup right so you can kind of see the difference there um thank you very much about your first book off Amazon what a great read I appreciate that I I hope you um I hope you enjoy my next book and thank you so much so that was uni and sushi at that time what was Sushi doing at that time because the chart has changed and I do want to talk about some of the recent altcoins uh setups and what they're doing right now it's right here as well so this we were looking at Sushi as well because these are down Trends you kind of zoom out how do I know it's a downtrend there's your falling ma200 the Blue Line simple moving average know you're in a downtrend um and you're bouncing here essentially from the bottom of support or Demand right up to resistance or Supply and you're just again looking for up thrusts I always just look for that I just look for a resistance broken and then not hold held I mean it's just simple it's it's you know keep it simple I'm telling you Springs and up thrusts so that's we were looking at for sushi um I'll get back to these other trade these other tweets but I will say like Ada beautiful beautiful short setup on Ada um you kind of wait and this is the thing you know then Bitcoin Live members I get this question a lot from them and it's um where it will be in and kind of one of these bleeding slow bleed uh times and you know can I short this and I and I just remind them it's like you need a bounce to short something you need to move to fade right if you want to go long wait for a dip if you want to go short wait for a rip and you wait for a well-defined kind of balance where everyone's starting to believe again and you just step back you trust your charting and you look at support support support that's been lost you know it's resistance right you know it's resistant I'm a 50 and then we get the candle action we start getting this upper Shadow action here spinning top indecision and kind of even before this candle collapsed and closed you still had this kind of this the feature of these upper Shadows you even if you're watching this it wasn't looking good and then it started to follow through from that so this is just a really nice really really nice little short setup um and so you want to kind of learn to recognize that and and it may seem simple oh how it can't be that simple where it's just support turns into resistance well you know it often really is and what's nice about this type of strategy is if you're wrong you know immediately you don't have to hang around forever I mean if you go up to about like here you're out of the trade I mean you're not hanging around forever so like 40 to 5 or whatever I tweeted I tweeted this setup out it was super simple um the same thing for Seoul I mean so so not as as clear not as well defined a short setup as Ada but it's just a garbage chart and I just I'm telling you when I see a garbage chart bouncing I am just I'm looking for a short I mean it's just it's made to fade it's expected to fade here it's kind of rejecting again underside of broken support uh and then just like you know we just close this candle that's outside bar right ma50 rejection but how about yesterday you're on watch from yesterday you are watching you are not I mean you can't feel good if you're if you're long you're moving your stop loss up right you know seeing that that candle interaction so let's get through these I did that uh let's see what are we saying here and what are we saying here this is cool you can cut and paste oh I didn't want to do that you can cut and paste and see when I tweeted it all right I tweeted this here all right so this is where I was kind of wrong this is where I love I enjoy kind of pointing out where I'm wrong a little bit I say okay daily I may answer sideways this is true so you observe this you're like all these Mas are sideways so um you should remind yourself not to overreact to a moving average cross um and that given that they're all sideways like they're just not as valuable in that environment moving averages are much more valuable used with volatility especially ema8 resistance on the way down right or on the way up but inside sideways who cares about a moving average or sideways you know what your average is it's sideways it's just your you know you don't need a moving average so um you know basically I'm I'm reminding people when I'm saying this I'm tweeting this out um they're all sideways and I'm trying to tell you maybe and I'm not always explicit right I don't always explain every tweet that's what these videos are good for and the master class webinars and Bitcoin live and my books and all that you know you can read a textbook too I mean you know moving averages going sideways you know you understand that or you should be able to it's up you know you have the ability to learn these things um but it you know I'm all but I'm pointing out here this is unusual and will not will not last we're in the cusp of a large move you know if to me everything here back here October 8th that's like whatever a couple weeks ago I'm thinking we're ready to to like rip or dip strong and what did I get another like two weeks of sideways I was I was completely wrong you know that's how unusual this is I was expecting a big rip and we went sideways for 17 days so I you know I have to recognize I was expecting a big move way but we still haven't had it yet and it's just a reflection on how unusual uh this trading setup is I mean it is really unusual um so what do we do right I I still think that that that suggests everything I've I've studied everything I know and know through experience that suggests we have a large move coming that's still true you know as for when that's out the window I think it's really hard to time this anyone who's trying to time this I think they're going to have trouble so I still think we have a large move coming and what can we do is play it with the strategies that we know work we know we can go along at 22.5 manage our risk somewhere in that area maybe if a stop loss of 22 2 or 3 right we're not going to hold on forever and then we have confirmation 25 25 5K we get that and there's the bottom of the channel it's a little bit a little bit riskier but I think the cleanest way to play it is on the you know the nut low the 17-6 17-5 low excuse me one second is on that 17-5 uh low and and the ideal scenario and this is one that I've mentioned for a long time would be a temporary break of 17.5 sending the market into panic and a recapture so that's you know that's our best play here on a dip um you know if it breaks below this low it's it's gonna be Uncharted Territory in many ways because we're going to start to form a new channel so anybody who's going to tell you who tries to tell you you know that if we break 17 you're going to want to buy at 14 or right at 13.5 nobody knows I I'm calling BS on that because no
one really knows we have to see if it gets there we have to see how it gets there and um just kind of watch the price interaction I I we just know that there's generally an area of support um you know real centered around 12K you know 12 to 14K but the meat the meat of the support is like 12K um so it could bounce before that it could it may never get there right but these are things you prepare yourself for and you recognize where you have a clear play which is 22 5. or 25 5 and you recognize where you have a you know decent play here 17.5 you recognize where you've got chop and you're going to avoid and then down here it's more like you're gonna have to wait and see so that's how you have to mark it up you have to be ready and that way you're kind of ready in some sense for no matter what happens as best as you can monster outside bar on daily Bitcoin I'm glad I'm doing this video it's been a while I've I've tried I think two or three times to do this I just didn't have the Mojo or there just it wasn't anything that was going on it's still pretty boring but um I'm glad I'm I'm getting it done um because these this is important work um monster outside bar and so this is a nice candle here this is a beautiful candle here for Bulls right so we talked about up here we got some really nice candle signals up here um you know we did that earlier uh ethereum tweezer and you know the advanced block um this is a nice can to the outside bar hammer it's beautiful look at this long lower tail gorgeous candle after and it's you know it's a hammer after move down right you want a hammer candle after move down like like sideways sideways into a hammer candle like who cares right it's the same concept it's the same concept as the moving average sideways you need something to reverse a hammer candle after sideways is useless it's nothing it's not nothing but it's not nearly as good as this after a move down you know middle Bollinger to lower Bollinger Hammer I'm sorry pardon me I got out of place upper Bollinger to lower Bollinger it's a pretty strong move right in the Channel with the hammer candle and you know you had some consolidation but boom high or low and then go and then it bounce to the upper Bollinger right and now we're looking for a retracement again and we're going to get to that in the following tweets um but here this monster outside bar this is a nice candle that's gave you some some hope you're gonna at least do you know a lower to Upper Bond your band moves and that's what happened uh and then here we go this is from a few days ago October 14th how time flies huh October 14th and by the way I'm sorry I'm not really paying attention to chat room as much as I might I don't have a team it's just me I'm just a dude hanging out so there's some great comments and I'm sorry I'm missing them uh thank you JV thank you so much um I just don't you know again I'm sorry that I'm I'm missing your comments but I'm just happy you're here I'm glad you're hanging out with me um uh I wear Master privacy actually it's it's you know I enjoy doing this I want you to see my body language and to connect with me and that and I think it makes um the teaching and the learning better but it's just privacy um agent it's privacy um let's see uh Miss thank you appreciate that JV so that next up we have something we're observing the ma50 price interaction so this is back here this is the day after right this is the day after um I was talking about the outside bar I I'm I'm also letting you know to pay attention to the Daily ma50 because I'm saying back here that the daily ma50 has stalled these relief rallies the last couple times stalled it here stalled here so we get the nice bounce and then what happens right here stalled again right at the ma50 came back right came back m850 projection and then there we get our higher there we get our higher low right there we set our low bounce to the expected resistance come back so it's one of those things where if you think something you know if you think the Bottom's in you're gonna get a chance for a higher low somewhere is this magnet modes on this doesn't look right um but you're gonna get a chance you know you're gonna get a chance most likely right for a higher level you think the Bottom's in you're going to get a chance to um you know somewhere boom you get like a higher low and you always watch for that right so here's your higher low ma50 um and so we're paying attention right daily ma50 we're paying attention right um going to hunger strike I mean this is just me basically saying uh I wish there was more going on um this is funny this one's super funny if before and after the same you just lost money I mean it's not funny but it's we have to laugh at ourselves because I mean I've done it I've done it many times um but you know I'm going on a hunger strike I want some action it's it's boring and this you know 17-5 or you know 17 5 which is the lows of the channel and 22.5 the key pivot level I've talked about so you get that you understand um what I'm saying here and let's see at least bitcoin's trading at 20K asked me three months ago and this is true so this is the case so I'm you know again you get I'm always kind of trying to see all you know all the the possibilities I'm trying to be as objective as I can even though I still think Bears probably will take it down to where it probably wants to go um I don't want to get caught off guard I you know I take what I do seriously I find I'm trying to get better and uh always trying to get better and um but I'm trying to provide a service too and I want to be good right I'm competitive I want to be really good at what I do and um so you have to kind of always be you know even if I'm thinking I'm really bearish I'm asking myself well am I missing something it's okay we're still at 20K you know uh we're still at 20K it's crazy I mean I really at this point I'm saying here I am a week ago saying I would have thought we'd already broken down by now and that is true you know after this action here you know after the triple Divergence the outside bar you know the rising much breakdown you know I would have thought we would have broken down you know at the at latest really September you know because I was always thinking October bottom for Bitcoin for some reason I was thinking Q4 bottom and maybe get that lower low in September um September October and we you know we we don't have it yet I mean you know we tested it a couple times so um you know so I have to it have to be true and say say to myself you know I was expecting this we'd be lower by now and we're not we're still at 20K and that's still true and here we are at 20K so you know say what you will and we're still at 20K so that's what that tweet is all about um now this is Chad's you know it's like Chad's saying to your to you you know um you know why don't you wait wait another hour before you drive drink some water you know you're not ready to drive yet you had you had too many drinks I'm the friend who's trying to get you to you know slow down a little bit um you know you're not ready yet just chill out and I think we have to you know respect the upper Bollinger um and if we look at really the upper Bollinger right what's happened after price interaction with the upper Bollinger all right what's happened with the price after upper Bollinger interaction right and now we're going to go back to now we're going back to March I mean we can keep going you know we can keep going we can keep going right so um you know December I mean so let's you know let's let's let's understand that even if the bottom is in its bottom is in you know it probably will pull back a little bit um you know yes uh it could start the uh you know upper ball the The Faded the the uh the the Beloved the the mythical um ema8 to Upper Bollinger type of an uptrend that we've talked about you you know see the master class right that's what you get in the most pure forms of uptrend it's it's impossible but like I I don't think so I don't see any real evidence of that um and I think we actually have some bearish Divergence as well on the obv we have bearish Divergence right we see an unsupported new high in the price right we're calculating Divergent based on the candle body close close to close this red candle unsupported new high now it's it's not as bad as it was yesterday right because yesterday we closed up here stronger Divergence it's resolved a little bit you know this Divergence would resolve with the price around you know 1907 right essentially the obv matching the slope of the price it's just a single Divergence um it's it's not something you would open a short on but it's just another piece of data especially with the upper Bollinger band interaction and I just circled for you I showed you the history of that and the power of that I mean you got to play these Bollinger Bands um these lowered upper Bollinger moves so um you know this is what I'm saying when I put out this tweet this is what I'm and then you know it's just a little a little arrow right I didn't Circle all the tops I have to make a choice every tweet like how much effort I put into it I can't spend I can't like attach three charts on every tweet I could but like I'd hate what I do I have to I have to balance it to keep keep going and and to keep providing value but also to push you to to learn and all that so you know all you got for me in the Tweet was this little red arrow but you could now you get the video from me and I walked you through it so now you understand uh what I'm trying to say and this is interesting so so how do now we're wrapping things up we're back in the last tweet I started out this chart session by talking about 22.5 the bottom of the channel it's interesting to see the strength here in ethereum and we see her Express with the ethereum BTC part BTC pair chart the relative strength so what does my tweet say my tweet says the eth strength versus Bitcoin that's this chart makes you more skeptical of the staying power of Bitcoin so now I have three data points I have the price at the upper Bollinger band one I have the obv bear Divergence 2. now I've got the strength of ethereum like ethereum over performing Bitcoin it's not good for Bitcoin um it helped us spot the top back in October and November you don't have to believe me you can just watch my videos um and it you know it helped us spot this top here on the macro lower high and that broader consolidation from the April top you don't have to believe me you can go watch the videos you know so when you see ethereum starting to outperform yes it's context based it's not all you can't always do it doesn't always mean exactly as cleanly as as I explained it to mean or I I inferred that it would mean based on that interaction you know in April um in the September you know lower high but as a general concept if you have you think about money flows if if ethereum's outperforming like the bitcoin's not leading the way and Bitcoin needs to lead the way out of this range um you know thus far we just have um you know Bitcoin still minor bounce you get a nicer play off of ethereum that nice 14 20.
uh 1420 uh flip this is a you know pretty clean long signal the 14 20 14 30. um will it bear more fruit I don't know but it's still so far it's just um a bounce within a downtrend you know we haven't even tested the 200 this is above you're looking at a bounce in a downtrend every trade needs to start with start with you looking at this blue line and understanding what you're dealing with if you're trying to go long you're going against the trend so you need to be careful going long in these charts with the Fallen 200. um so far that's just what we have and here we have this lower high structure you know we need to see that changed uh clearly above 1800 you can very confidently go along you'd be flipping the 200 and that lower high but this tweet you know is is basically saying it's just another data point to be more careful with Bitcoin um and to treat this as a chop range in here I'm not trading this range it's a choppy choppy range if you want if you went long and 20.5 what's your stop loss you're probably going to get chopped out you might even have been stopped out already I think we need to wait for um a major change of structure out of this channel I think we need to remember we need to understand uh uh these are the most basic uh peasant metrics you're about some results that's what it's all about my friend it's all about the price and it's all about simple technique we we can we need to we need to understand given how long we've been consolidating in this range it's gonna be a big move so if you believe that it's going to be a big move um it doesn't matter that you don't have to catch every all of it the nut bottom you know you can miss the first five six percent of it to ride with the trend so you know and in the meantime you avoid getting chopped out while you're waiting for the move to unveil itself you know we need to wait for more information um and that's kind of in uh that's the position we're in right now uh let me just gonna check in with the chat room folks let me know again where you're from I want to just I just want to say hello to you all throughout the world um let's see what's going on with everybody checking in the chat room you got this all right chilling hanging out uh let's see what everyone is saying in the chat room he teaches you for free yeah I'm just having fun thank you I enjoy I enjoy interacting with you folks great stream thank you hurls thank you so much uh let's see what's going on catching up with everybody musk has bought Twitter cool I mean let's see what happens if they can D if they can deal with that bot situation um I think that would be great pure Alpha that's how we do and thank you for sharing your knowledge again you need to look you have to watch these videos this playlist I like like like don't trade anymore until you've watched these videos it's gonna help you so much it's gonna help you so much trust me trust me trust me please watch these before you risk even another dollar let's go to the end uh to the new comments below from Thailand Hawaii what what island uh are you on um I spent some time in Oahu I was lucky enough spent some time there uh Flo uh drop the bask I already told you I'm not gonna drop the mask so why don't you drop the subject my friend uh India nice to see you uh as well Al uh Al Atlanta that's ATL um Al uh let's see Colorado all right on great Jeff it's great to see you thank you so much thank you so much Bronx New York New York's a great place good to see you Isaac thanks for hanging in today uh New Jersey been there many times Romania I have not but I'd like to nice to see you uh from Romania thank you so much uh Philippines Como estapo nice to see you Rendell I have some Philippines friends from the Filipinos I mean I've from friends from the Philippines uh let's see I started watching beginning of the year that is awesome that's so great you know you need time and practice um listen new Traders you need to do two things watch The Master Class tutorials and these Twitter spaces are just unbelievable I'm really proud of this new body of work this is some of the best stuff you can you can absorb as a new Trader it's each each uh video it's like 20 25 30 random questions a lot of them are just like brand new Traders asking questions um and chances are they're things that you're you know things that you're thinking about and problems you're dealing with and these just honest great conversations check it out the Big Island all right great to Great to uh hear you book thank you so much uh book is incredible thank you so much I appreciate that Colorado Europe nice to see you from Europe and Monaco very cool very cool Mexico that's great that's great Pakistan nice to see you Rhode Island the Rhode Island Plantation uh what's going on nice to see you Brazil Bona Noche Falcon Island Malaysia Ohio ta's fun man I'm glad I inspired you that's this is great folks Melbourne folks thanks for indulging me um I try to add value but without you um it did you know Canada I love Canada uh and turkey I'm watching this show called Resurrection erdogrel uh it's about like um 13th 14th century um like the uh the seljuks like the the Turkish you know the Turks back then and it's really interesting each season's like 70 episodes it's ridiculous but um it's interesting into I'm into it it's interesting Munich very cool uh Singapore wonderful folks thanks for hanging out with me here tonight I don't often do these as you know but we started out and I reminded you that since the last time we have um spoken in this format I've put out a decent amount of content and they're still like tiny views I mean it's dead out there but you know doesn't mean you um can't take advantage of what's out there five Twitter spaces since the last time we talked great conversation with one of my my most favorite you know Traders out there chart Mandan uh new version of my book I'll probably do um actually two new version 17 and 18 two chapters I'll probably do another one in the next week or so um I'll just take that opportunity to remind you I'm getting ready to publish trading quotes this will be out by Thanksgiving 365 quotes one quote a day um and I do like a quarterly Roundup where I talk about my favorite quotes it's a really cool project I wanted to publish it earlier but I keep working on it I keep refining it like you just it's just it's just maddening writing a book is maddening it's never done you keep refining it you keep refining it um it's never done thank you Simon it's great to have you Lisbon cashmere as well Lisbon as well okay Dixie analysis all right a couple people asked we'll do that so I mean Dixie's still in an uptrend um but barely I mean you know we look at Dixie I mean clearly it's a strong Trend you would play this I mean whatever this is you know you're gonna say I want to be long in this I think you know if we're being honest right if you just look at this chart um you know if you look at this chart you know if you look at this chart you're gonna be You're Gonna Wanna Go long right all the moving averages are rising uh ma-200 is rising you know I kind of circled here what it had what has happened in the past with the price drip dipping you know to the lower Bollinger and the ma50 so this is a level where like if you're betting if if I was just to show you this chart and say you know if you had to guess whether we're going to go to you know 108 first or like 112 first you have to bet 112.
it's just more just what we're seeing right now and yes I get that we've had a nice we'd have a pretty big drop here from whatever 115. it's still bullish in my view you know based on my system my understanding of technical analysis you know this is the prior high that we we've recaptured you know I think as long as we're you know given the proximity of this High to the lower Bollinger band and the ma50 up here like this is the stop loss this is the level where I think you'd really start to say okay this this trend has lost momentum so this is the level you know anything above 109 I am strong um strongly believe in the Bulls will continue right but this you know below that I'm thinking okay we're probably maybe we're going to ma200 you know if we get below 109 so we're right there but you know but still I mean look at this look at this strong uptrend it's just it's just a retracement to ma50 and we're still holding the prior High so um you know that that's that's my dxy analysis um buy big what I mean what you know I wouldn't buy anything big I think you need to scale into your position the idea of you don't buy big what you should do is start small um and you can add into your position either if you know let's say you're holding for a longer term you start small maybe if it goes to the next key level you can add a little bit more or if it continues and it's doing what you thought it was going to do um and it recap you know say you're long and it recaptures a key level you can add more you can add into it like you shouldn't just buy big I mean you're setting yourself up for disaster large positions are incredibly difficult to manage uh uh Netherlands all right that's it I'm big Chats on Twitter it's been an honor I've enjoyed doing this check me out on Twitter the book is available on Amazon in four format Kindle hardcover audiobook or paperback you can get the book for free on my YouTube in the playlist trading wisdom 50 lessons every Trader should know the book has a great uh reviews thank you to everyone appreciate uh your feedback I'm glad that the book has resonated check out the rest of my work on YouTube I highly recommend you watch The Master Class tutorials new Traders new Traders must watch the and listen to these Twitter spaces conversations you must must listen to these when you're ready when you're serious you join Bitcoin live Bitcoin live is the best in class educational platform for crypto I think the best team in the world that covers Bitcoin I'm a founding analyst it's just an unbelievable team nothing comes close to it I personally do twice a week full market update when you join you get access to everyone's stuff um it's just a great team check it out if you want to take your game to the next level um but look there's just great free resources out there as well so so take advantage of the free stuff soak it up and if you're ready move on um thanks for hanging out here with me here tonight this video will go into the playlist uh uh this video will go into the playlist for uh this is going to play for quick Market updates nope that is yeah Market moves explained yep Market moves explained so this would go into this playlist and uh that is that so who cares about playlists we're here to dance we're here to dance let's get this going folks anyway before I dance just want to say thanks again thanks for hanging out stay strong bet small use your trading journal and I think you'll be okay thank you foreign foreign