BUDGET DAY TRADING STRATEGY II JACKPOT STRATEGY
Macha budget day is coming on 1st February Budget day is that day of the year that is like jackpot trading Jackpot means the return is going to be more and risk will be less. risk will be less. Return is going to be huge compared to risk. This opportunity comes once a year where profit can go upto 100% and loss can be around 5- 10% If you have been trading and have have experience of 6-7 months then you should definelty trade on budget day. Okay! If you are trading for the first time, do not invest all money. Just trade in 1 or 2 lot Once you get the experience then increase the capital next time I will be covering 3 topic in this video How the market has performed on budget day Which strategy you have to use At what time you have to enter and exit Let's start the video it's going to be interesting I will be covering 3 topic in this video How the market has performed on budget day When market has given good movement Morning or afternoon Which option strike price to trade When do you enter and exit Let's see how bank nifty has performed in last 10 years Last year bank nifty had given great movement. If we see the history bank nifty had moved 8.3℅ almost 2500 rs movement.
Before that it had given negative movement, 0, 0.8, 0.6 and then in 2017 it had given 2.6% and then -1. 3%, 0.7% Like this kind of movement we have got in bank nifty I will tell you how market has moved on that day. Let's say the start is negative it will go down and then it will come up and then it will come down I will tell you where do you have to exit Nifty 50 had given movement like 4.87% , -2. 5% , -1. 1,0.6, -0.1 +1.8
Like this market has shown movement Now we will see at what time movement has been coming when the movement has come up in previous year Generally we will see the average time when there was a huge movement. If you Will see here market in 2021 had opened gap up and then slowly it had moved up You will generally see a big movement after 11:30 or 12PM either upside or downside We can't say which side but big movement will be coming This data is of 2021 where the market has given wonderful after 12:30 PM This data is of 2020 Market had opened gap down It took rejection from downside then it went up If you will see here also the market has given movement after 12:30 PM A Good downfall had come. If you will see from 30600 it had gone down by 1000 points If we capture 1000 points Leave 1000 even if we capture 600-700 points it is a great movement I will tell you how to trade properly by reducing the risk This is of 2019 data. In this also the movement has come towards upside after 12 PM. It has moved by 300 points it means 1%
And after 1 PM it had fallen down by 500 points the data shown over here is of different date by mistake please ignore On an average we are seeing a good after 11:30 or 12:30 PM The Movement is continuing till 1:30 - 2PM Now we will see the historical data of option how it have performed In 2021 let's see the value of at the money strike price If you will see the opening of 30900 ce it is 583 And it has closed at 2304 I will add one column of difference of opening and closing so it will be better I have taken out the difference Let's see now In 2021 if we see there is a difference of 1881 in ce and in pe it is 333 Approximately the benefit would have been of 1500 points if we would have bought option In 2020 the CE option difference is of -9 And in pe the difference is 22 So there is no much difference In 2019 the difference is of 138 in ce And -132 in pe I am telling you the average figure if we are incurring loss it is going to be minimal based on last 5 years data The most important thing is where we are exiting I have told you about how much premium decay and spike has happened based on opening and closing price In 2018 in ce the difference is 20 and in pe it is 42 In 2017 In ce the difference is -16 and in pe it is -13 Approximately decay of 29rs If we see overall the chances of loss is approx 5% because it's market and anything can happen anytime I will tell you how to do it properly 5-10% is the chance of loss and the major thing over here is where we have to enter and exit So the first part of the video when the movement has come up and how atm has performed on that day Now let's see when do we have to enter in market and exit As I told that there is a good movement after 12 PM but before that also we have seen good movement So the first thing is to choose a strike price Let's say bank nifty closing price on 31st jan 37687 Then we will be buying 37600 ce and 37600 pe It's up to you how many lots you will be buying If you are beginner then do not trade in more than 1 Or 2 lot You can also chose to watch the market or else trade with 1 lot If market given good movement then there will be definitely good profit And there is a good chance of giving good movement So you can buy 37600 ce and pe And let's say the value of ce and pe is approx 400 Just keep in your mind that on budget day the premium will be very high on budget day So accordingly buy the lot Over here you have to hedge the position Do not do this mistake Do not 1 lot of CE and 2 lots of PE Do not do this You have to buy both ce and pe of same quantity at the same time I will tell you how to enter at the same time Go to your orders There is basket order Create a new basket order After that add the position You have to choose weekly expiry Mostly the premium price you will be getting on budget day will be of 500-600 You have to buy one lot of ce and then 1 lot of pe Approximately it will cost 33000 This is an average value Once you will click on execute Both ce and pe will be getting executed Now let's talk how do we have to trade So the first thing is When the market is opening take one position of ce and pe by 9:17 Don't invest full amount of money at once We can't predict when the market will be giving movement either from morning or afternoon But definitely it will be giving after 12 PM So you have two option First thing is you can enter in the morning itself according to your capital Second thing is Let's say you have a a capacity of buying 500 quantity then in morning by 9:17 buy 100 quantity of ce and pe and the by 11-12 PM Buy the rest like 400 more Because the big movement will be coming after 12 Let's say in morning you can buy 250 quantity which is half of 500 Then add 250 by 11 PM of ATM strike price Do not choose OTM by thinking bank nifty will move by 1000 points so i will be buying otm Do not think that otm which is 10 can become 100. This is not necessary it will happen Do not take this risk So the first thing Take entry by 9:17 Either add half by 9:17 and rest by 11-12 PM Now where do we have to exit You have to exit the all the quantity by 1:30 - 2 PM all together. Do exit first ce and then pe You can exit by 1:30 or 2 PM Or let's say you have put 1 lakh and you have got 20% return and you are happy you can exit it's your choice but whenever you are exiting Exit all On this day we will be buying options not selling Let's say the level is 37600 We will buy both 37600 ce and pe Let's say the price of both is 600 and market has moved by 1000 points CE option will be moving from 600 to 1200 to 1300 And PE option will be moving down to 300-350 And the approx difference you will be getting is 200-250 and if you are buying 1 lot then at least you will be getting a profit of 5000-7500 per lot Let's say you took 4 lot of both side and the let's say the difference of premium is 100 Then you will getting 10000 profit Let me tell you how i am going to trade I will buy some Quantity on 31st jan Mostly 100-150 quantity then 9:17 I will add some more quantity and at 11 PM i will add the rest of the quantity and then I will exit by 1:30 or 2 PM In a case if I am incurring loss then maximum I will be taking 5-10% of my invested capital 10% is way too much I have told Maximum loss which I will take is 5% So we have to enter by 9:17 and the 11 PM and we have to exit when the market is giving a good movement by 2 PM You do not have to carry forward the position After that close your laptop No more trading Even if market moves by 1000 points It shouldn't affect you Let's say if market gives good movement then profit will be 40-60% It has been happening and if you are a beginner I will suggest you to watch the market or just trade with 1 lot Even though the chances of losses are very less but it is stock market Losses can happen So if you are beginner then try to avoid trading if you have just started If you have seen the previous budget then you can take good trade Those who sell CE AND PE The problem will be here is that max the premium will be going to 0 and if it goes up It can go anywhere So here sellers have to keep on shuffling the strike price I won't really suggest to go for sell You can buy CE and PE Do long straddle This will be more beneficial than selling of option So in this video we understood The movement on budget day is generally from morning and big movement comes in afternoon and we have to exit by 2 PM According to last 5 year days the risk is very less. Last year movement was very good We do not know that kind of movement will be coming or not Whatever the movement is coming And if you feel you have got good profit you can exit You have to buy both ce and pe of same lot at the same time and exit also at the same time You can exit by 1:30 or 2 PM Or whenever you feel you have got good profit But do not do this mistake that you took call option only So this is of budget video so let's make good money because this day won't be coming but if you are beginner do not take trade Because having capital is more important than making profit I am repeating for last time Enter in both CE and PE Enter and exit both the position at the same time So that's all from the budget video and i hope you understood how market behaves on budget day when do you have to enter and exit If you liked the content please do like a d subscribe the channel See you in next video