Budget Day Strategy 2022 || Special Annoucement || Booming Bulls || Anish Singh Thakur
The video that all of my subscribers have been waiting for has at last arrived. In fact, I had intended to make it for so long, thinking about what I'm doing on the budget day this time. Do I make long straddle? How to make it? When? At what time? How to do it? How to manage the risks? Because we are nearing Tuesday, here theta might work in reverse action. So that's it guys, I made this video for you.
In this video, you will get your doubts clarified on how we can make a large profit together, or less profit together or make a small loss. And Yes, big news. I launched a very important service for you- Technical Analysis Package.
I launched it for you, which could give you immense value in your personal trading. I started a WhatsApp service for you. But, we can talk about this later. First, let's deal with Budget day's video. Look, pause the video first and bring a notebook. And write down things in the notebook as I say.
So let's see to it first, I'll meet you later in the Outro. OK So finally the day has arrived which you have been waiting for so long, Budget day 2022. The budget day is on 1st February. The strategy we applied last year was long straddle and if we apply it in a simple way, it won't work. Why is it so? There is a reason for that. Greeks.
Greeks in which there is a thing called theta that you have to understand. So come on, we won't apply a strategy like the last time, because the result for budget day is arriving on Tuesday. So I will tell you what happens on Tuesday by bringing you back to the iPad. First of all, we will start to trade in Banknifty and not in Nifty, because the strategy we are going to apply is options buying. So we need big movement. We know that Banknifty, compared to Nifty, is more volatile. Maybe the budget day might affect
negatively in some sectors and positive in some sectors. So Nifty might not be able to give such a big movement. But in Banknifty, the news might be either good or bad for the financial sector. It can be either supportive or non-supportive. So we need to definitely trade in Banknifty. Now before I tell you about the strategy, I want to tell you about two Greeks: one is delta and the other is theta. OK?
Now you can show theta with this sign - and theta- let's write it like that. So delta and theta. These are the two things. So we need to study about theta. So what is theta? Theta is - actually, let's directly call theta Time Value. There is an expiry anytime.
So you know why out of the money option becomes zero on Thursday. Because it has no theta left, nor delta. Why not delta? Because if there is no OTM then there will be no delta and time will be over on Thursday. So there will be some theta value remaining on Wednesday.
Tuesday has a bit more theta value. More than that, we have on Monday and most on Friday. Consider it in a weekly series. So let's consider an example where theta has Rs 10 value on Friday. So it's Rs 8 on Monday, Rs 6 on Tuesday, Rs 4 on Wednesday, Rs 2 on Thursday morning and consider that it becomes zero by Thursday 3:30 pm. So like this, it starts to decay.
Now what happened in last year strategy is that, if market is on Rs 100 and moving on- it became Rs 110, Rs 120. Like this, if it moves in one direction itself then what happens is that we bought both call and put. If this is Rs 100 and this is also Rs 100. In this, consider in this Rs 100 having Rs 20 theta value and Rs 80 delta value.
This also has Rs 20 theta value and Rs 80 delta value. All these calculations are made up to make you understand. Now after this, if I say that if - this is call and this is put. If the market moves straight up, then this Rs 80 will automatically become Rs 160 or Rs 200. Last time it went more high; you might know it if you experienced it. Otherwise, watch my previous video, I'll put the link.
Watch the previous video for sure, you will get an idea. So these 2- let's consider that this Rs 80 becomes 0 if it becomes OTM. But this Rs 20 won't become 0. This Rs 20 will also not become 0. It will decay a bit and become Rs 18 - Rs 17. So to sum up, I benefitted from this and I also earned Rs 20 from the one which was giving me a loss.
It is only possible when it gives a big movement in a straight line. So last time it was on Monday, theta value was much high. Today, that decay will also go and on Tuesday we will get a bit more less theta value. So the risk increases by a bit. So our job is to manage the risk. So how will we manage that risk? I will tell you.
So first of all, the strategy we are using this time, what we are doing this time is that first of all - the budget is arriving on Tuesday, OK? So this time we are taking 2 leg entry. And for those who want to take more risk, for those who have more capital, I will tell you about 3 leg entry after this. I'm most probably going to do 3 leg entry.
I am giving you guys 2 leg entry and the minimum capital needed is Rs 40000. Nothing could happen with less than Rs 40000. And the maximum capital is your own wish, it's your money, you can manage your risks. You can place your own capital. But I won't suggest that you borrow money and do it.
See the rest of it yourself, you have to also be prepared for something wrong as well. So I will tell you how. On Tuesday, market opens at 9:15 am. You have to put your first leg between 9:15 am -9:20 am.
OK? You have to put your first leg between 9:15 am -9:20 am. Buy which one? You have to buy At The Money call and put, both. For an example, I'll bring you to my laptop. If I bring you to the laptop- Nifty- Banknifty is at 37687.
So the nearest strike price would be 37700, right? It's at 37687, so Bankifty's nearest strike price would be 37700. So you will write 37700 like this, OK This- 3rd February, PE of 37700. Look, the price of one of them is 695. One is 674. I need this itself. It shouldn't be like one 700 and the other 900, or now 695 and the other 525.
These 2 prices should be near to each other. It is very expensive right now because which day is it today? It's Friday night therefore it's showing a bit expensive. Premium goes high before events like this. So if I go to buy this, then look, it's showing 17000 for now and this is also 17000 for now. I guess it should be
between 12000-13000 on Tuesday or 10000. If we do 2 leg entry, then 20000 for one leg and 20000 for the other leg. So bring a minimum of Rs 40000. Bring Rs 5000 so that it won't fall short.
Now we bought both of these, bought both of them at the money. Now let's come back to the iPad. Now you bought both of them at the money, Ok And you put one leg, when? Between 9:15 am- 9:20 am. Now just as in any side of the market- now look, I'll show you a chart and explain the chart to you. Consider that this Banknifty remains in 37700, OK And for example, consider that changes to 38000 and then 38500.
Consider this, OK Last time 1000, 1200, 15000 1000+ movement overall in Banknifty. So consider that you entered the first leg here at 9:15 am Ok and then the market goes straight up here. Just as the market moves 350 points, you have to- you already put the first leg- you have to put your second leg Why? By adding the second leg, you are reducing your profit. I'm telling you that beforehand. With this, your profit won't increase, it would decrease.
But with this, we could manage our risk, understand that. Rose 350 points, your first leg has already started showing you some profit. After 350, make sure that you don't do it before 350, put your second leg. It might be 10 o'clock in the morning or 11 am or 12 am, whenever it is, you get a movement in the second leg, you enter your second leg here. Again at that time at the money cp. How much would it be at that time? Near to 38000. Therefore, buy 38000 CE+PE.
I'll tell you what happens with this. Consider that with god's mercy we get a straight-line movement. Bro, this strike price from the first leg is already double-positive and the second leg gave you positive. This means you are in great profit. With god's mercy, if we get a straight line movement like last time then there'll be no troubles. Instead, if we put more profit at 9:15 am, then we might earn profit but its Tuesday therefore we need to manage our risks.
Now consider if something goes wrong, consider that as you did second leg entry, the market goes a bit up and then straight down till here, then what will happen? Just as it reaches here, the first leg will give you a small loss instead of a double positive, because the market went sideways. Opened there, went up and came there itself. Delta got cancelled, theta decreased, Delta didn't move at all Delta means the power of movement, price of the movement. There is no movement, it came there now.
So it will give a negative result. But the second leg entry you took there, here, at this time, will give you a positive result. So this negative and positive- maybe it would become overall negative and- and, it couldn't happen so. It couldn't return there and close because it's budget day. If it happens then that day becomes a doji.
This is called gravestone doji. Gravestone doji won't appear on a budget day, it's obvious. Their movement is expected. Either up or down. And consider
it goes down a bit more then you earned more money. It will become positive again, It will become positive again. the 3rd case goes down more and it will become positive again and this will become double positive. This means
we get 2 double positives and 1 positive out of 3 cases and in one case where the market rise and close there itself, which came during the leg time 9:15 am, then you will ace a small loss. And the second leg in that will save you, it will give you money. The first leg will give you loss. So profit/loss will give you a small profit or small loss overall. But consider if the market shoots up or down in a straight line, then we could earn a lot of money. Consider that market goes up in a straight line and gives a great fall, then again we earn money. There is one case where we won't be able to earn money in the market, that is gravestone doji or dragonfly doji Means when it makes this kind of doji or this kind of doji.
And this case has a low probability as it is budget day, momentum is expected in the market. Therefore, we apply this strategy. So did you understand? Last year we did single leg entry; this time we need to do a double-leg entry. OK? Ok, I hope you understood.
Now let me give you the third example. Those who have more money or can use more capital and invite risk as well then you have to enter on Monday 3:20 pm. Monday 3:20 pm, Why? your 1 and 2 leg which was there lets say, this is your 3rd leg entry which you have to take a day before. Actually, this is the 1st leg that is the 2nd and 3rd leg, understand that. At 3:20 pm, you will buy the CE and PE at the money of that time.
At that time, wherever banknifty will be With this what happens? With this, if in the next day market shows a gap-up or gap-down like the last time, then we could earn extra with this. Just as the market gives a gap-up or gap-down, Already this our leg no. 3, Let's say this will also give us a positive result. It will start giving us positive result separately, leg 3, because we entered one day early and if a gap up occurs with 200-300 or 500 points, it will start giving me profit if we get 300-400 pint gap up. 1% is not abig deal for gap up or gap down So we will earn. So look, now consider if it doesn't happen, then Let's say, if it didn't happened what should you do? Everyone listen carefully.
The first leg entry you did on Monday that opened sideways, it will start showing you a small loss. So what you should do there now is that you should add one more lot od CE, PE. But make sure that you don't make any mistake. If the market rise by 100 points, then whatever happens will be at the money. If it is 37700 and the market went up only Rs 100 then we will take a second leg of 37800. Ok
And then after 300 point you will take your 3rd leg. So those who want to risk more and profit more, who has good capital, then you can start on Monday. Those who feel like they shouldn't over risk and make a clever move, you just enter the 1st leg in between 9:15 am - 9:20 am on Tuesday. After a minimum of 350 points comes, after 350-400 points, add your second leg, and till 3:15 pm exit in between 3:00 pm -3:15 pm Ok This is my suggestion.
Now some of you might day that last time market opened 500 points more the last time. Yes, some of the people I know held on to that and made a lot of profit. If you have luck, then when you hold you can earn more. But it's Wednesday. How close is it to expiry? Only one day left to expire. So don't take that risk definitely if you get profit. I believe that you should wrap up everything by 3:15 pm.
Last time also I gave you a warning. Big warning. I am gaining you again, Biggest warning. What people do is that- What people do is that- biggest warning over here- people always think that "hey, market is rising greatly bro! I think what should we do now is will sell my put and buy more calls".
So you break the straddle. When does your straddle break? When during great CE+PE, you think of breaking the call and adding more put as the market falls down. Do you know what happens? Many a time, the market starts like this. Look at the market carefully. Market seems like going up like this. Just as it comes down, you sell your call and shoot straight like this. You become furious.
You become so angry like "Shit man! What did I do now! I did this mistake on the Sitaraman day 20th September 2019." bro, such a big movement came I thought that market how high could it go? The market has already gone 1000 points up in nifty, I earned great. So what did I do? I sold my call thinking that the market will take a pullback. And bought put. And my profit went. Out of fear I took more put, thinking some pullback might come. So these kinds of silly things come to our mind while trading like "let's do this"- don't do.
If you are following my strategy as I say, Do as I say if you exit, then you should cut both CE and PE. If you cut only one and not the other, it's gambling. Remember that. Then it would be gambling because the day is so volatile it could literally go 300-400 points up and 700 points down. and it could go 500 points down then shoot 1000 points up. It is very normal for banknifty to do that on such event day. So don't mess up this day. Hedge means hedge.
Don't break the hedge. Don't break the straddle. This is called long straddle. I only have one warning and nothing else, if a doji is made in the market, accept the small loss, no problem bro. It happens, it’s market. We can never be sure of anything, otherwise, people would have put crores in this strategy.
It is not like this would definitely work. If it works, then it will work for me too. If it doesn't work, then it won't work for me too. But I definitely- and I am telling you clearly, I won't be giving you any live video. Last time I entered live,
then I told I am going to exit. Maybe I will go live in Instagram, follow my Instagram account. My username is anishsinghthakur. Ok I only have one account and follow that.
Maybe I will go live there, there's no surety. So I want you to enter and exit on your own. Don't ponder on whether Anish exited or not or what happened to my trade. how much he earned? Don't ponder on such silly things. You know the steps.
First leg between 9:15 am to 9:20 am. 350 point as movement Just as we get 350-400 points, enter your second leg. And that's it. Just as it strikes 3:15pm, no matter what happens, At 3:00 pm even if at 2:30 you get great profit, exit, don't fear. Never No one looses while booking the profit. If you are afraid That like man "it shouldn't go" "it shouldn't go" "it shouldn't go" I put 1 lakh in this and I am getting profit 20000, 30000, 40000 profit then cut it bro, then there will be no problem. Just don't regret later or become tensed thinking what should I do.
Ok So don't seek me thinking "what did Anish bro do?" don't message me on Instagram that what did I do? I will do things on my own, I have more strategies, I will take more risk and do more things. So definitely I will share my results. I will upload my video on Tuesday for sure on what I did, how I exit, how I made a small loss or small profit. OK? So I hope guys this strategy works for all of us, that we all earn money. I know money is important for everyone. Everyone feels good when they earn. And I am trying my best to share my knowledge with you so that you make money for yourself and your family.
So guys I hope you enjoyed the video on budget day. OK? Watch again if you have any doubts. But make sure you follow the rules that I set for you, Ok So come on, I want to tell you a very important thing finally.
It's very important, a thing that you all wanted for so long has come to me. Come, I will tell you in the Outro. Finally, you got the most important thing you guys needed. You got the budget day video. You have to do double leg entry.
And look, triple leg entry is completely upon you. Only those who are experienced and have enough capital should try triple leg entry. But I suggest to everyone that double leg entry is enough, I guess. Ok? And I have told you, you need a minimum of Rs 40000- Rs 45000 capital.
So you can trade And it's true, you won't have a big loss. You'll have a small loss or small profit or big profit, because I have already explained the logic to you. Now, I hope we earn money out of this and I'll upload a follow-up video on this, about what happened to me on Tuesday. Ok? So guys now I want to tell you about this, I launched the technical analysis program. Man, you know that there's not a week since October 2020 that I have not shared my market analysis video. If you are my subscriber from the beginning or a new one, you can see my old videos to see how my analysis is. My analysis is always on the point.
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I hope you guys take this opportunity with interest. And I wish all of us make good money on budget day. Ok? Let's see. I'll meet you in the next video, Ok Thank you so much guys. I hope you enjoyed the session. I'll meet you in 1-2 days.