Best Betfair trading strategy for Tennis | Peter Webb | Bet Angel

Best Betfair trading strategy for Tennis | Peter Webb | Bet Angel

Show Video

So bet angel contains, a whole variety of, different, tools, that. Allow, you to maximize your potential within the market one, of the reasons that we do that is that there are many strategies that you can deploy into a market, and your role as a trader is to, join up the strategy, with the market that's how you profit in the long term there. Are lots of tools that, do functions that you may not be aware of for example if. We look at the dutching tool everybody. Knows the dutching is a great way of covering large sections, of the field however, did you know that there's a brilliant strategy, that you can do in tennis that, also involves, the dutching, tool if. You're, interested, in learning to trade on Betfair then visit the BET Angel Academy where you have detailed, structured, Betfair, trading courses or, why not visit our website where you can download a free trial of bet angel professional, but, also visit, the forum where, you can get detailed images, examples, and downloadable. Files and don't, forget to subscribe to our You Tube channel and click on the bell icon if you want notification, of new videos as they're, released. So. Touching on tennis sounds, completely bizarre if you think about it dutching, is a great way of covering a very large number of runners. By a very large number you have a very large field the outcome of an event is uncertain, so, you use dutching to cover a number of selections that way you guarantee, that you get a result if any of those selections go on to win however. When we created the, bet angel dutching tool we did a couple of interesting. Little things to it and that. Allows you to use. The dutching tool in small fields as well it sounds a little bit bizarre I mean why would you touch a tennis match you know you've got player a wins or player B wins so you, know you either Dutch one or both of them and you can't touch both of them so why would you touch one why don't you just place a back bet into a normal trade well. What I'm going to explain in this video is a clever little tactic, that you can use on, tennis, trading that uses the dutching tool but also it beautifully, describes, what, your objective is when trading and also, how, you should approach trading, especially a sport like tennis when. You do pre off racing one of the problems that you have is the markets all over the place you, know suddenly it's being backed then it's being laid and then it goes in it goes out it's all over the place, there's. No certainty it's a mark it's driven by pure emotion. And. You. Know all, of the dynamics, behind that market. Creates, a lot of uncertainty nobody, knows exactly what the price should be so people are constantly trying to work out what it is however. In a tennis match if a player starts at a price over here you, know roughly where it's going to be if something, occurs within that match and you also know that you know if there a break up or set up or. They've got a mini break within a game you, can get a good estimate of roughly where the price is going to be so, when you look at Bettinger what we've done is we've created the. Perfect tennis, trading tool which is tennis trader because not only will it bring in live, scores to you a very, very high speed but, we'll also look, at the match and then give you a projection of where, it thinks the price should be and that will allow you to perfectly, encapsulate. Your opening position your closing, position and you, can ask for a certain. Type of trade and work out what the payoff is and what you need to do to achieve that payoff so you've. Got everything right in front of you there so. Rather than try and talk you through that let me give you a practical example. So. I wanted to talk you through a very simple easy to understand, strategy. That. You can use on tennis that really. Sort of quite appropriately, it. Measures your risk. Allows. You to not, over stake and. Pinpoint. An exact. Exit. Point within the market, and. So on so. Let me describe what I'm, going to do here so, we're on betangel, obviously. And. I've gone along to the dutching tab here and I've, also fired up tennis trader so if you click on the. Tennis ball it. Will fire up tennis trader and. Then we can start to scope out our, particular trade. So. The first thing we need to do is set the match type so. The. Play is taking place in Rome at the moment so, it is a three-set, match where. The tiebreak is allowed in the last set so.

We Have set it up and told it what the. Match is going to be like when we click on calibrate. And then, Bettinger will adjust the odds to match those at the market, and. It will work out all. Of the detail, that we need from there so, what I'm going to do now is click on the, set matrix. And. If. I just resize, this slightly, so. That we can see the whole of the set matrix in. Fact what I may do is lift this up because we don't need to. Click. On any icons over there a moment you can pin it as well which is what I've done but. What this is doing is its laying out a plot of basically. Where the. Odds are likely to go within the match now, if one of these players slips. Up and injures, his ankle the odds are not going to get here but based, upon the way the market is set up what the market is telling us and everything, that's been discounted into the market if that remains the same. Then. This is where the odds will be given, certain score lines so. We. Don't know at this moment in time who's serving first but we're assuming that's Novak Djokovic is serving first if you want to change that you can change the server up here and. Then that will modify. Everything. That goes from there so you can see we've put del Pacho as surfing first and. Then. We can sort of plot out what, happens from here. So. It's null nil to start the match it's 114. When we first look at, the match and as. A consequence, as. The, match progresses then. This medium, line here means that the match is tied so. This, would be. One. Nil to del potro this, would be a break of serve goes, in. Djokovic. Is way. And then. You can see so this is the level scores. Across the entire match this would be del. Potro serving, and winning his game and then the match would bounce along this line if. That. Is how the match went on that particular occasion but if we changed the server to, Djokovic, then, obviously the match would bounce along this line here so, we're saying.

Djokovic, Wins, del, Potro Djokovic, del Potro Djokovic del Potro but then of course you know one, of them would get a break and then it would deviate from that line. There. You go you understand how the set matrix works now but. What, we have to do, here is decide what an exit point we're going to have within the market and what we're going to do. So. Let, us say for. Example that, we, expect, the price on del potro to. Drift at some point because djokovic is going. To get a. Break. Up at some particular point what, I'm going to do is I'm going to back both. Of these and, if. I just untick, that, what. I'm actually going to do with del, potro is put him into the margin maker, so. If we use a stake of 100, s with this particular position. Then. Basically, if we put, one percent margin in which is what you can see here this is the margin maker this, is the margin that we're putting into the market if we, ask for one percent gain on del. Potro. We're. Basically saying 400 pound snake we. Get one pound 18 back that's not a huge return really is it but, what, the margin maker does is it says well okay well, poncho starting at odds of seven point eight he, needs to reach odds of nine. For. Us to get out one percent so where. Would he reach odds at nine so if we look at the. Number. Below here you've got the odds above, they're, going to be djokovic you can see there in yellow, and then we've got the del potro odds below so. We can basically say if Djokovic, is serving any wins this first game then you'll probably get, that one percent it's very very likely that that would occur because, if we look at the game matrix, you can do the same thing on the game matrix, and you can see all of the instances where. Del. Potro would, reach, odds of nine so you can you can mix and match and see where things are from there and also, if you want to look further, on in the match then. It's possible for you to alter the, scores the games the sets the, points to. Examine each of those particular, points within detail so. Of course you know 1% return we'd have to get, this right ninety, percent of the time or something it would be quite quite, large, so. Let's ask for ten percent margin on del. Potro so. This indicates that his price needs to get to a forty, four so, you can see what, we're saying here is. If we, think that the price on del, potro is going, to, drifts. To 44, it's not going to be in that first set you, would have to be after, that first set would be in set two so, what. You're basically, saying as Djokovic would have to be at a certain level so let's actually give. Djokovic. The first-century. We're. Going here and we're just going to say Djokovic, is our set up let's. Have a look at what. The odds would be so basically, we're saying, Djokovic. Would be a set. And. Probably. A break up in order for it to hit 44 so you can see the opportunities to make money on, Del, Potro is a bit limited but let's flip it the other way around let's go and reset this and say. Djokovic. Were, in the first set we've taken, the set away from Djokovic. And. Let's flip it round to Djokovic, so here we're, saying you know if we. Ask for 10 percent margin we'd, get about 11 pound out of the hundred we're saying that his odds needs drifts, a 1.3, so. What would cause his odds to drift 1.3, well if we look at this you're basically saying, he. Just needs to go a break down and that is how the odds would, get matched at one point 3 so. We. Would go into this market, we, would stake, 14, pounds, 29, on. Del, potro and. The other bet would sit in the market, with. 85 pounds, at one point 3 so, our total risk, on this particular trade is 14, pounds and our, total return is 11. Pound 43. So it's sort of not quite 2, to 1 if you if you didn't want that if you wanted to try and equalize this we could sort of say well. What would actually make that 2, to 1 so you can actually see here if we go for a 12 percent margin, maker you. Can see that we're risking 14. Pounds on, our original stake when it goes into the market and. We'll. Get that return across both of them 14. Pounds, 35, so. Basically saying is, Djokovic. Going to drift to 1.3, for, 50%. Of the time if you've broken down, a complicated. Situation with, in tennis with multiple, score lines into, a very very simple, trading. Judgment, your basic he's saying I'm, going, to steak 14-pound 66, my potential return is going to be 14 pound whoever goes on to win. And. We needs to Djokovic, to reach 134, house Djokovic, gonna reach 134. Well it's, gonna be he's.

Gonna Be a breakup it's 2-1 or higher in the first set or later. So. That would be what completes, your trade, if. I just pull up the unmatched bets, area here and. Actually. Put this trade into the market if I just click on place, bets we're. Doing this before the match has started basically. If, I click on place bets and. It will place the bet into. The market you can see that our liability, is about. 14 but I returned it so it's about 15 and now returns about 14 so ever. So slightly out there because of the spreads there's no reason why you couldn't ask for a price rather than taking one but, basically what we're saying is we're risking 14, pounds for. A 14 pound return more or less and. You can obviously adjust, the margin to however you wish but. Basically what you're actually doing here is you're. Framing, the trade from a money management, perspective very, very clearly you're saying how much you're going to risk and how, much you're going to return so, your focus then, shifts, to the market, to basically say and is. That going to happen and we. Know from tennis trader when, that's likely to happen it. Could be at, this particular point in the market or maybe a. Break. Occurs very early on and. Then it looks like it's going to hold a serve and they, will occur at some point between those two games or. It could occur at any points within, that particular market now. The, thing to bear in mind is they're playing on clay so. You'd, have to say you, know, does. Del, Potro stand, a chance of breaking Djokovic, on clay and when, is that likely to occur what's his game style has he likely to play the match and things, like that. So. You have to take that into account at all times you owe your focus shifts from a money management trade perspective. To. Focusing on the end of an individual, match between these two players. But. It's a really really neat way of trading tennis because you're shifting your focus, to. The actual match itself and you, don't have to take this match before, them they actually Jennifer take this position before the match starts, you, could take this position as the, match is underway but basically, what we've done is we've staked some money on. Del Potro we haven't staked any money on Djokovic, we've. Put that in at a higher price in the market for that to get matched in play so, we actually have to remember to. Actually click the key ball position. Here the bet, status, because, this will keep the bet which means that we've despite, the fact that we've placed this bet before they offer it we'll carry it over to the in play period now obviously you don't need to do that if you're doing it in play but.

The Same sort of principles apply what, you're saying is this. Is my risk. This. Is my reward, this. Is how it's going to happen and then, as a trader you make this judgment you say is it, going to happen how's this going to happen, but. Also you know it may not happen in this particular match but it may happen in the next one and you don't. Necessarily have to just do this trade once you could do it twice you, could do it as many times as you like so. All of those things come into play when, you do this type of trade as well but, essentially what you're doing here is you're putting a little bit of science, thought into the trade that you're going to do specifically. With the intention, of making a judgment on the match which is effectively what you you're trying to do trying to shift your skill to that as. Opposed, to. Just. Making a random judgment or thinking that something may or may not happen you're actually making a pre judgment on here and you're, managing your risk and reward which is essentially, you, know the number one trick when you're actively trading so, yeah using a combination of this, particular screen, and. The. Tennis trader tool this, will give you a great, place to pitch your perfect trade when, you're trading tennis. So, when I did this video last night I was sort of picking on the match that I thought may present a good, illustration of what we're talking about and that's exactly what happened it, was a very interesting match, Novak. Djokovic won out eventually, but. Del. Potro gave him a right run for his money and in fact it looked at one point as though Djokovic, may, actually be, eliminated, from the tournament but he managed to turn it around and. This. Is one of the great wonders of tennis is that it doesn't follow a straight line it doesn't go like Djokovic. Is this, price and therefore it goes to 101, there. Are many many paths that, can take him to winning the match and basically the odds reflect that so the odds fly around all over the places and then eventually the match engine ends. It's. Not. Impossible. But it's sort of quite rare for a match to for somebody to dominate the match from start to finish it does happen obviously but. Necessarily. Typically. The path you view you're looking for the path that, the match will follow to. That conclusion, and. There are many parts so the idea of tennis trade and why we've set out things like the set matrix is that you can plot all of those different paths and show the, different parts in the way that the match could go in the odds that they will reach a certain points within, that particular match but, a great little match very. Entertaining and, it provided a pretty good trading opportunity, as well so, let's bring, up the graph. Because. I've collected data from the match and. Then I use that to analyze where the key points were within the match and if that gives me additional, knowledge that I can use going forward you can do the same on betangel as well incidentally, but. What. We're, looking at here if I bring up the graphic is, basically, along the bottom hands along. The horizontal axis. You've, basically got the score within the match and in the vertical axis are, the odds what we've done is we've capped the odds at. Two because, they obviously went to much much higher prices when it looked like Del Potro was gonna win the match but. Obviously Djokovic, turned it around and it went, on to win but, so that we could actually look at the data properly and not distort the graph we basically capped, it at two, so that we can discuss it in some depth so. Let's have a look at what happened within that particular match while, Djokovic, was serving, first and he won his server game and then, del, Potro won, his, service game and it sort of went on sir for a little while until we got to. Three. Games all and. When we got to three games all, Djokovic. Was serving to go for three there, was a bit of a battle going on within that particular match, within. That particular game I should say and then.

Del. Potro had the breakthrough so at that particular point, the odds went out to, about sort of 140. Ish in the mid 140s, 10, Australia was saying three, four in the first sets to Del Potro it'd be 141, so. We're about on the, money there now, there can be little variances. When, you look at the. Odds because there's certain moments when momentum, is with one player or the other or that, the market is beginning to discount, one thing render it's not unusual to see the market deviate from a, model because. Somebody. Somewhere has seen something that makes them think that the momentum is with one player or there's. Something that is favoring one player so, it's not unusual to see a deviate from there, so tennis trader is a good guide to where the price should be doesn't, necessarily mean it will be absolutely spot-on and also because we represent it in odds I often suggest that you look at it in terms of probability, because of one percent move in probability. Can be quite different, shorter, prices than it is at larger prices so always bear that in mind. But. Yeah it went three four then. Djokovic. Held on to his serve and then it was 5-4 to Del Potro and because he's only one game, away basically, from, potentially, winning this set then. You'll tend to find that the odds go even more in his favor so. 10 Australia was saying that the odds would be 1.5. And if we actually look at, that particular moment in time when. We're looking for the match to go perhaps, to that extra set you, can see that the odds bouncing, around all over the place and that is because there, were many breaks going on in that absolutely, critical game towards the end of that particular set, but. When Del Potro actually won that, particular set, then. The market reset itself to about mid 1 60s, and if you look back at the start of the video you can see the tennis trader was looking at the odds and indicating, that they should be about. 164. So about mid 1 60s, so. You. Can see that it's. Successfully plotted out where all. Of those key points were within the game but of course you know their little movement, in odds that you see are basically when it's going like sort of love 30 30 or advantage. Juice advantage, juice in either direction. That's what creates that bit. Within tennis, so you have to be careful about where you want to take your positions, or where you want to take them out but the advantage you're putting a closing position in the market ahead. Of where the odds are likely to be is that you're much more likely to get matched you don't have to wait and see what the market says the odds are you can actually pitch it at about the level where, you think there's a sensible exit point within the, market from there but. You can basically see how the match panned out from there the. Odds drifted, out when it looked like Djokovic.

Was In trouble and, then he managed to pull it around in the second set he ended up winning. The second set a little bit easier or it looked like he was gonna win it easier, because. He was 5 2 up at one point but. Then now, del Potro came storming back in and took it to tiebreak so you can see the odds go flying out again there I can't. Remember exactly what the odds were on del portillo 9 or 10 perhaps. The. Sorry. On Djokovic, they were probably 9 or 10 at that point because. For. Del, Potro looking like he was about to win the second set they would have come in to about 110 115, or somewhere around there so, you just do the inverse but you can see the, odds. Disappear, off the top of the chart out point because it looked like Djokovic, was going to lose but. Then of course he did win the second set and then, he the. Odds came crashing right back in again there, was a bit of a tussle in that third set but, eventually turned it around and the odds came crashing back in again so, the important thing you, know we've just given you a narrative of something that you can see on the screen but, the reason that I'm describing, it for you like this is to basically give you a an, idea of how the odds are moving around and how that's being reflected within the market, but. Also think about it you know we dish did one trade where, we basically put the position before the match had started, now, always the risk with doing that is you don't know what's, happening in the underlying match itself so very, often it makes sense to have eyes on a match, so that you can get, an interpretation, of what you're looking at and how that's influence, where, the match is going to go from there but, if you look at the key points within the market we open. A position at the start of the market we could have opened a position, at. The start of that second set. When Djokovic came storming back into the match and. Then at the beginning of that last set so in fact they. Were looking really at four key. Entry points within that particular match so you could have repeated, this trade at least four times and had. Reasonable, margin out of it and when you look at how he balanced, the, profit against the potential liability. At, the beginning of this video that. Shows you that while, we were playing with a 50/50, chance at, the beginning of the video what we were effectively doing is not playing with those odds at all because we could actually repeat the trade more than once now. You. Could decide that once you've done that first trade you just reinvest, the money back into the market, or, you could actually work. With the same amount again but with reduced liability, because you've got profit in the market when.

This Is one of the keys with tennis trading is that you can actually do that obviously. The difficulty of the tennis trading is you have to sit there and watch the map so it could go on for hours if if, you necessarily want to so I'm, happy to trade tennis but it depends, what sports are on which particular time I tend to pick whatever I think is, going to work particularly well at that particular moment in time so, if a tennis match goes on for three hours imagine, how many horse races I could do and that could be a couple of football matches so that's one of the judgments you have to make but. When there's nothing else on or. It fits nicely into whatever time. Schedule, that I'm trading at that particular moment in time I'll. Often turn my hands it's tennis simply. Because I understand the market pretty well and. It's very clearly defined market in terms of trading expectancy. You can pretty much frame, how. The markets likely to trade and what you want to do before the match has even started, now. As the match is underway you may want to reappraise, some of those elements but typically what you do when the match is underway is you've got the opportunity to strike more than once so you, can either increase the profit you've got or reduce the potential, liability on the stake that you're using whichever, way you look at it that obviously has a positive outcome on your, trading expectancy. Over the course of the entire event whichever, way you choose to trade it but. Anyhow there is a, very useful and interesting, way of looking at a tennis market and also interesting, way, of executing a trade on a tennis market using. Betangel. You.

2019-05-26 17:02

Show Video


Hi Peter, great video. Just wanted to know if you could still use this type of trade if say you're in a country like Australia where there is no in play trading, if I place the bet pregame would betfair allow me to keep the unmatched bet, I know if yes I couldn't trade out while the game was on.

+betangeltv Ok, thank you for the reply

You can only trade out inlay in Australia if by phone!

Peter i cant inplay or live bet cos im an australia id it possible to lay a selection lets say i.lsy somthing at 3 bucks can i then put anthor bet in at say 4 bucks for a back bet in play then at a latter stage somone macth me in play is this possible tryed asking betfair help.they gave me a complete diffrent answer to what i was asking

I think you can place a closing bet but only by phone in Australia. This may be a strategy that's too risky for you in which case.

Tried this recently and it went well on match 1 which was nicely matched for 10% margin, Match 2, well it was going completely pear shaped so I decided to cut my losses only for my player to dig herself out of a massive hole and come back to win, so on match 3 I didn't trade out and player went and lost. Your video has made a couple of points that I can look at so will have a go at that tomorrow. I am still on small stakes so it's fine I am still learning.

Peter, could you reduce or make transluscent the bet angel logo? sometimes gets in way of stuff onscreen

Do you have to pay income tax on your profits because it is gambling and you don’t pay tax on gambling winnings

you don't pay tax on gambling winnings/profits.

You just answered your own question.

betfair collapsed again

Thank fully it wasn't at peak time.

Thought I was the only one stung.

Betfair collapses again. The engineers must be geniuses

Hi Peter, so pre match at 1.14 Djokovic was about 87% chance of winning the match, at 3-4 after just losing his serve he was 1.42 and about 70% chance of winning the match. If pre match odds are generally efficient then is there an edge in me taking the higher price when he is behind?

Only if you think he has been unlucky and it's hasn't affected his game.

So according to your matrix if Del Potro won the 1st set 7-5 Djokovics price would be 1.64. ...thats ok, but if Del Potro won 6-0 Djokovics price would again be 1.64 ......that deserves a big LOL

You can adjust the model as the match progresses.

Ok, every things looks good but... Is’nt simples way to lay Djokovic at 1.14 and take this same risk and profit if you match 1.34?

I dabble in tennis trading (badly) and find the hardest skill is in the execution of exit points/strategy. If I placed a trade that was in essence laying Djokovic at 1.14 and then watched the price move to 1.40 I'd have a whole new set of decisions to make at that point. Either green up, do nothing, move all the green to Djokovic (still the fave at this point) or reduce liability on Djokovic and leave all the green on Delpo. The temptation (for me anyway) is almost always to try and let the trade run but reduce the liability. In this case I imagine I would have left all of the green on Delpo and £0 on Djok. This would have been a good move here as I could have then greened up at the end of set 1 for a bigger profit. However this is not always the case and often I find I end up making the correct call on the entry point only to mess up the exit and end up with very little. When I enter a trade and it goes against me I am pretty disciplined at exiting for the loss that I allowed for (in this example if Djok got the first break say). My second issue arises when I have a profit from set 1 but then the temptation is to leverage that later on and this can also cause what was a good position to become a small win (or break even). The obvious issue here is that if I'm wrong on say 50% of my initial trades and take the loss then I need to take larger profits on the other 50%. Whilst I may have been able to do this at a point in time during the match, due to bad exit strategies or leveraging earlier profits this ends up not being the case. I think it's something psychological for me and probably down to greed (ie chasing bigger wins and not wanting to green up a position that may eventually be more profitable). Suppose I just wanted to put this out there and see if anybody else has similar issues and finds picking good entry points only 50% (or less) of the battle.

i dont understand english well, but 1.34 and 7.8 are % 1.34 74% and 7,8 12 74+12 86 and are not 100x100. on which spot of video do you speak about find this odds?

That make sens:) Thank you for your answer

It's all about the percentages. Tick sizes don't represent exact percentages so that makes the expectancy a little harder to calculate.

OOO, Possible you say put bet in 2 different moment? 0ne at start, 2 if one broke? aniway, we need betangel for do it on automatics right?

Great video that shows the power of BA. More Tennis videos please.....keep them coming.

Hi Peter. I have not been able to make these profitgraf you show in tennis. I hope you will make a video, where you show how to make them. Down in every details. From the start to the end. I have tryed to export data from Betangle but with no succes.

im ur new subscriber sir


@betangeltv Ok, thank you for the reply

How can we see market load on team

Other news