程曉農專訪:再見了中國市場!中國經商畫紅線 企業該幫誰?哪邊死的比較快?假外資 離岸金融中心 中國富人洗錢天堂。211201

Hello everyone and welcome to the forefront of political and economic Uncensored see China host Zhang Honglin I thank you for watching our show recently that a US-China trade war, of course, we look again later because there are some other issues of global warming as if the United States ah the two sides also try to find a balance point of dialogue but some general patterns include some from the military or from the competition is the part from the diplomatic to the economy from the past a lot of the US government to put pressure on multinational family hope they do not rush to these wage a trade war but after a few years of these conversions include many of Taiwan Taiwan has this so-called salmon return back to Taiwan to re-do some of their own layout on the operation of the trading, so I think it happens to be a full suitable a check point, of course we see this in the United States on these wrestling sensation on the economy of the West might have been thought that it would not allow the CCP to take on certain behaviors made some adjustments but we look now leader Xi Jinping this part of the wolf this feature no less that do not know his original nature or are we seeing some of the pressure within the Communist Party and we are among the last accident he had also discussed the program not only to deal with some of the external relations included he also did a lot of internal and some of these so-called new settlement was known as the Cultural Revolution contains data we have seen to fight for these network ah fill teach some related industries, real estate, finance, entertainment and so on are all doing to rectify such a development in the end what kind of problems will really extend the future direction of China's economy will be how I think this is a very topical subject today we are very happy to invite scholars living in America to Chinese economist Dr. Cheng Xiaonong also drive Hong Lin Xiong teacher hello good friends, our viewers Hello everyone thank Cheng is a teacher talked about us in this economically relevant part of this top-level officials in the course of which the program is Dr. Cheng Xiaonong us because of his past for some context Chinese economy is very it is also clear to our audience really like your teacher to help us do away Comment its title written very straightforward in a recent published in October's issue of the Japanese edition of "Newsweek" which is "goodbye Chinese market "then of course there mentioned a lot of foreign countries have begun to start out this re-do some consolidation course from such a report, or is this a trend, of course we will ask for the way the teacher that in the end it contains the world for China itself to Taiwan how do you think this wave really do own an exodus of foreign capital influx from Japan makes it straightforward to write such a report is concerned is not really such a trend of gradual formation of this trend actually began 10 years ago for many reasons talk back and talk about it ... it is the Chinese Communist Party's history of reform and opening up before it and almost all the communist countries as the economic system are planned economy it is no way to integrate The international community so it's a free market economy and the outside world is basically in a semi-state decoupling of course the CCP communist state this relatively closed economy it is not entirely closed-door policy in fact this group of countries there has never been absolute seclusion they still need to import advanced industrial equipment as well as domestic fuel can not produce the key raw materials as well as industrial and agricultural products so Duiwaimaoyi largely the history of the Communist country are two one is the organization of the Soviet Union by foreign trade is beneficial trade circle each other's activities between it and the national red Western countries trade less then the CCP before 1959 also trade in this circle another is the Chinese Communist Party began in the 1960s era of Mao Zedong on the pattern of trade that time with the United states and the Soviet Union Communist Party while in a hostile state that it can not enter the Soviet Union red circle can only maintain a limited trade import and export trade via Hong Kong and the Communist country does not mean that you must not participate in economic globalization, it is as long as the implementation of the comprehensive transformation of the economic system of privatized enterprises into public ownership the same time promote the market economy has to cancel plans economy it has the necessary conditions for economic globalization so flexible because only the private sector can run in the international market of this century middle school students to complete economic reforms that I just talked about the economic system ready but if there is no economic globalization lead the way there's also a licensee of the international community still do not have sufficient conditions to join the economic globalization of the CCP's lucky that which is to say from the late 1980s on the mainland Hong Kong and Taiwan business investment activity actually played the semi-active participation in economic aid China pathfinder role of globalization so Zhao Ziyang in 1988 proposed called "great quantities" policy intentions so that by the late 1990s Communist economic system restructuring has made progress began to apply to join the World Trade Organization that the United States is the last WTO Western countries led by the Communist Party to accept this is the case then the necessary and sufficient conditions for China's participation in economic globalization and that are equipped with Western multinationals continue to invest in China China also embarked on an international express train of economic globalization can achieve economic prosperity of the national Express has basically the path of economic globalization is not who is willing to take the initiative to get off course, the CCP can not bear so much after all the economic benefits, but in 2000, when Liu He, deputy prime minister of the Chinese Communist Party or proposed to prepare Chinese economic landscape and to change this policy and strategic decoupling of economic globalization and a half out of frustration of this fact I have said before China joined the WTO since it is after a large number of export-led economy as a whole so there are about 10 so-called export boom then export boom is 10 years after it received a triple blow with the rapid increase in exports is the cost of social welfare spending boom reached its peak in China's foreign wages, taxes, land prices are constantly rising energy prices, export processing enterprises let Of So this increasing foreign profits was gradually eroded and eventually he had to close the factory or relocate so the second is the relative decline of the CPC export market after the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis developed economies have impact the purchasing power of countries marked atrophy that China's export boom is therefore greatly impact the third is the introduction of foreign investment in other developing countries also have to develop Chinese-style development model so that processing and export of Chinese products on foreign markets face increasing price competition challenges that China, the world factory output this used to be because a large number of cheap clothing, footwear, toys, consumer electronics allow consumers to benefit developed countries but China's manufacturing industry is large and not strong capability of independent innovation is weak low-grade product which is also its Achilles' heel talked about foreign divestment in fact it was first started in 2006 in Guangdong Province manufacturing footwear, toys, clothing enterprises from Hong Kong and Taiwan plant closing and then a lot of production refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioning, color TV and small appliances foreign-funded enterprises also had to be evacuated and the withdrawal of foreign capital influx is further extended to the Yangtze River Delta, the electronic high-tech foreign-funded enterprises set up in 2015 to place a number of large foreign manufacturing mobile phones or other electronic products have also so plant closing, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and the withdrawal of Chinese companies have shifted to a lower-cost regions example, stresses the Southeast Asian countries are India some US companies optimistic about Mexico's manufacturing district then the next foreign divestment of foreign companies With the new trend of divestment is a Sino-US trade war occurred in 2018 is due to host just mentioned from 2020 Sino-US relations have become tense in China so that foreign companies starting in the spring of 2020 and prepare a rainy day many US companies sourcing from China invariably go a tetralogy first step is to increase the stocking to grab maximize inventory in the United States before the entry into force of the second tariff is negotiating lower prices with suppliers is to try to bear the losses caused by the increase in tariffs if the supplier for protection orders so willing to significantly lower prices in the short term is that it retains the third order transfer orders because of low profits if the supplier can not keep the prices down so future tariff is expected to rise this would exceed the affordability of both supply and demand so American companies began to the country's new orders to go beyond China's fourth is to reset the supply chain is to allow suppliers to shift production to other countries to absorb such additional costs brought about by rising tariffs for some time that a large number of companies looking for this professional advice the company supply chain to discuss how to transfer specific strategies in this area, although there are many companies that I chose to scale down but remained in China, but more often due to the rising cost of Chinese exports led to export large uncertainty more and more large enterprises out of the Let's talk about the end of last year the US Chamber of Commerce is the American Chamber of Commerce in China survey 23 9 US companies in China, of which 23% said that they had decided to make the supply chain out of China is considering the removal of 20% to 33% they want China to postpone or cancel some or all of the manufacturing investment in the mainland together for nearly 80% so the CCP's propaganda media reported that over the past three years have been Apple that home Depot is a US-based the building supplies chain company called Hasbro to home Depot as well as Amazon, Hewlett-Packard, Dell, Google this there are a company Hasbro these US companies are planning or are the suppliers out of China moved to Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and these countries Apple is to require suppliers to 15% to 30% of capacity from China to countries for example in Southeast Asia say Katherine Lee in Taiwan he is the one bearing the apple of his suppliers had to invest in Thailand is Taiwan electronics giant Hon Hai four, Quanta, Inventec and Compal they are also American companies supplier Hon Hai's a very famous Foxconn Terry Gou that company which in India is also put into the executives of the company at that time is said to have the ability to turn the iPhone this production out of China and is considering Vietnam, India, Mexico and Indonesia, and Malaysia, these countries then Dell and HP servers suppliers Taiwan's British industry he plans to be sold in the US notebook computer production line in Taiwan and has been moved back to the part of small household appliances production lines to Malaysia went to Apple's suppliers Quanta one hand, he was moved to the production server at the same time return to Taiwan to set up branches in Thailand to expand the Southeast Asian market on the other hand is another company's data center expansion in the US Apple supplier Compal also move back to the production line in Taiwan and increase production to Vietnam to have a survey in China, Taiwan Taiwan-funded enterprises is about 39% of the planned investment to other countries is 29 per cent plan to shift production to other countries, another Taiwan has a number of free financial network reported the year before December 24 Taiwan Association of Machinery Vietnamese public is public to the public public bus Taiwan Machinery Association confirmed that many Taiwanese companies have moved out to Vietnam and Laos after their visit China then Japan's "economic news" stories like Nike adidas is also Taiwan Under Armour these shoes as well as shoes and clothes foundries have put production lines were transferred to Southeast Asia and India, so the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in the year before the beginning of December is also a report found they surveyed 10% of 174 European companies in China have to change suppliers 8% has been part of the business out of China or China is planning to go out of the Southeast Asian country of 15% is deferred investment and expansion in China, then Japan, "Kyodo News" is the statistics say 60 percent before the end of Japanese companies have transferred from China or other countries, then the rest are in evacuation 40 percent are deploying divestment of enterprises in Japan and South Korea Among industry Suzuki is Suzuki has moved out of China Mazda and Toyota are considering transferring production line Uniqlo part of the production has been moved to Vietnam and Cambodia, these Southeast Asian countries SEIKO is precision he has considered the production of specific products move back to Japan, South Korea's Hyundai and KIA have also been points back of this car groups also were to withdraw from China increased production in Indonesia and India, in fact, not only foreign companies from China to evacuate even Chinese companies also evacuated from China so now from bicycle tires, plastics, to textiles lot of Chinese own factory in the migrating transferred abroad regard the pipeline went there I saw two years ago reported that Malaysia has a Chinese Entrepreneurs Robert Kuok's Kerry logistics him a few years ago is the largest shipping and logistics companies in Asia he has been busy as this company the customer's production line for countries in moving to bigger transport from China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos course, even if you know the history of the industrial world, then it is not difficult to understand what the fundamental supply chain can not be transferred without the presence of only a few companies out of business inertia he did not want to waste effort to adjust their factories and spare parts supply chain so Boston consulting Group is a consulting firm in the United States a lot of research, he discovered a few years ago said that in 2004 China's average direct cost of production is lower than only Mexico 6 2004% of these dynamic changes 6% lower than Mexico to Mexico in 2014 to become China 4% lower than the then China in 2015, when its average manufacturing cost is only 5% lower than in the US so the relative cost of manufacturing it prompting a re-evaluation of their multinational manufacturing site and thus will lead to a huge transfer of Boston consulting Group, said the global supply chain think the overall competitiveness of China is now the world's manufacturing industry in the past no longer have the advantage of China, the world factory so original has two advantages a competitive advantage is a chain advantage is that I have talked about above are competitive advantage disappears China remains now mostly industrial chain advantage so-called industrial chain advantage means that China's industrial system to join in after the economic globalization to further complete the various industries to provide more complete upstream and downstream supply of raw materials and components and then add sales channels of foreign companies work closely with its ability to form a complete ecosystem that other developing countries do not currently have such a but the condition for some relatively low-tech industries in terms of its industrial chain have been very short parts of varieties less difficulty of training workers is not large so it resets the chain, then it is not difficult which is why there the reason a large number of such enterprises rapid withdrawal of our Thank you, teacher probably make a note but of course some teachers mentioned foreign investment now appears to be more of a Chinese withdrawal from the Commerce Department, but in the November issue of "China's foreign section inside investment guidelines, "the 2021 edition of this report Chinese Commerce Department fact is that there is no mention of this A fact now into still more or less out of this comes to us as the European Chamber of Commerce as a reminder to be careful Oh also reminded Taiwanese within Taiwan to do some preparation course some of these transfers directly say jump ship this is clearly a preparation as why the teacher does not seem like this it why the said part of the so-called "guidelines for foreign investment," China's Commerce Department we are more curious about it because it has some of the year is a few years there will be a new version of this this so-called little depth comparative analysis of the new version of the old version in the end there is how to see what kind of why we are not the same interpretation of the outside world to the inside with the outside of China this information is not the same as a teacher I am here to provide it may be a lot people wearing unheard speak Chinese into foreign to foreign companies is false so come and go or who to go much too far out we do not believe that the CCP Commerce Department data that data can not research of its own to publicize why I say it there is no research yet because a lot of our audience is not aware of the CCP's foreign investment statistics there has been a problem of fake foreign investment is China's foreign investment since 1997 among foreign investment from industrialized countries stabilized at around 200 billion dollars a year on but almost from so much about this a few years ago in 1997, 20 years ago among nine from Hong Kong and Macao is a small island in the British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Samoa, Mauritius, Barbados and Bermuda Bahamas and the Marshall Islands these foreign small Islands accounted for the major part of China's foreign investment I want to tell you about this is that you can attract foreign investment to China's national and regional divided into two parts is a part of another part of direct investment from Hong Kong investment from these small island countries, this also there is a contradiction in Hong Kong in the end is foreign or domestic China does not already said he, Hong Kong yet, but clearly has been the CCP direct rule of the CCP insisted that Hong Kong's investment Why is foreign to do so because Hong Kong investment to the mainland of the total Chinese foreign investment If this part of the very large proportion of foreign words not count the cost of investment to attract foreign investment the country so the CCP will be greatly diminished digital data will be very ugly so Hong Kong's first investment we first put aside that I was speaking about nine small islands this island State is a decent investment in the country do not have decent sorry they are basically developing modern industry in which some developing countries are ranked on the lower end of the last then combined according to World Bank data which nine small islands together the annual GDP but also nationals of 50 billion US dollars in such poor economic strength of these island nations could come up with half of GDP per year to invest in China and it sustained 10 years of unremitting enthusiasm you actually nine citizens of this island than most of China's Chengshijumin some are even poorer forward this modern collection of hunting fishing this way of living where they have money to help China develop the economy so from this Basically some small island nation of foreign money is not local nationals but you want to address the nine small islands they have a common characteristic they were scattered in the Pacific Ocean Balak Caribbean, the South Pacific, the Indian Ocean island nation of these small common feature is its financial management became lax money-laundering center for foreigners can very easily register a company there and then are free to shift their money into the financial sector turn out so there is a gentle title to these small islands, called offshore financial centers then that things started China's foreign and false about that since China's corrupt officials and rich people started wondering to transfer assets abroad as well as to emigrate to other countries so the term offshore financial center in China's wealthy circles has long been a familiar so in the words of China on the creation of a large number of domestic companies need to set up agency companies to set up a bank account to transfer funds in the rich offshore financial services center so qualified Chinese people even if you've never been to the small island you can still in Beijing, Shanghai office will be completed inside these small island states all formalities to start a company and then transfer funds to his identity transformed into offshore financial centers to do business in foreign money then they will become foreign investment to upgrade the course which the trick is to tell these fake native of China's foreign-he wants to get even when a foreign identity as a people of this Samo Er emirate of course, he also had to change the name of the line can no longer name on a Chinese identity card so they become what what Adams Samoa or what he was posing as foreign businessmen so in 2004 and they had someone special study done they put this fake foreign investment is registered in the Chinese people's money abroad through offshore financial centers then transferred out he turn back this foreign capital is called the so-called two-way Round-tripping Round-tripping two-way investment because it is these funds are actually from China, rinse it in offshore financial centers, Hong Kong or Macau again after some foreign investment in the name of foreign investment so this is actually a return to the mainland from 20 years ago, China imported more than half the amount of foreign investment came from Hong Kong and Macao and the above nine island are basically two-way foreign investment capital that is China has always been among the more than half Chinese people put their money but foreign coat then to check on their true identity in the end what they what they master the introduction of foreign capital into China more than half of foreign investment are false then you have to ask these fake foreign investment fake foreign people who are able to do so freely to operate two-way capital is often after domestic officials and managers in particular the privatization of state-owned enterprises to install their own pockets of the original SOE managers they will be only through corruption have the ability and conditions to do so and so we main two-way capital is mostly corrupt so easily he can finish in immigrant aid agency agency Chinese corrupt officials do not need to resign To capital flight overseas money laundering foreign companies registered capital back this series of complex operations it is more important is that you want to manipulate the hot money in and out of the middle of this process must be through foreign trade companies, banks, customs and Industry Bureau, real estate companies and many other organizations to do a series of so-called non-legal procedures if it is a common people do not say you can not find opportunities to unblock the joint commission fees alone in the middle of you too much but if you are some kind of power to hold their leaders to come forward so natural situation is different commissions and even then no one would dare to close these fake foreign government office is likely the one hand, sitting in various parts of the country's leading local work on the one hand but also in his capacity as an easy-country nationals belonging to freely manipulated they own so fake fake foreign foreign foreign investors are used to doing what they are most passionate about is an investment in real estate so the formation of the Chinese real estate bubble is bursting have their great contribution but there is a very important change is that since anti Xi Jinping after the corruption of such fake foreign investment now could not handle operations, few corrupt officials why because if it continues playing this game is no doubt in court death so now go to the small island of fake foreign capital invested in China and small island states to fake foreign investment now, few but the flow of the mainland from Hong Kong to fake foreign investment did not diminish my will analyze the Shanghai high-tech investment in this announcement speak centralized place in Shanghai this year 1-8 month as foreign investment is 16.2 billion

Hong Kong dollars which accounted for 72% of that is said a lot of money flowing into the mainland from Hong Kong in fact it is not a fake foreign investment if you want a closer look still like most is from the mainland fake foreign or Round-tripping reflux mainland Chinese stocks before the handover of Hong Kong stock market accounted for roughly 1 into the last ten years, the proportion has risen 6 Hong Kong stock market has become a continent that is of the Chinese Communist Party launched a few years ago the so-called Hong Kong and Shanghai via Hong Kong and Shenzhen in February of this year to pass so I checked the information, then Hong Kong word is called the south funds and north capital south capital of China into Hong Kong, north of funds in Hong Kong and then returning it until February of this year a total southward from the mainland north China to fund Hong Kong is 2.8318 trillion yuan then north into the capital of the mainland from Hong Kong that was 2.1236 trillion yuan of funds than the north south funds which formed more than 700 billion the number of mainland capital to Hong Kong stock market transfusion effect so since Hong Kong stocks through the net inflow of mainland capital south of Hong Kong in 2019 is a total 249.3 billion this year All Hong Kong-owned foreign investment funds south than the north capital of more than 200 billion Hong Kong is a net inflow of mainland capital but now after Hong Kong stock market through money laundering part of Industry again with this form of direct investment flows back into the continent which formed the continent foreign statistics on foreign investment so you see fake foreign information released by the CPC you need to understand this truth among the foreign Just as true and false Monkey King Journey to the West where you have to distinguish between true and false Monkey King, you will not be fooled thank some of our teachers have just mentioned fact, we see this business of course, every time we will be talking about corporate social responsibility in the past throughout the United States, or are we about to see the character of the entire civilized country relatively free inside for human rights in China for the Xinjiang problem for Hong Kong even those comments Taiwan issue is of course even initiate the wolf with different views of the Chinese Communist Party will immediately forcing the other through these overwhelming pressure to yield we see this important economist Adam Smith, he said that in fact have mentioned before, if not a benevolent society of course can cause discomfort if everyone throughout an unjust society, of course may also destroy a whole core to some extent one of their most basic of these countries are also reminded that the business community must still bear some of the important role the CPC contrast we now see through this economic dividends forcing individual countries Some companies say the government must do some somebody he must have forced him to kneel down this part had some role in the past of course, now everyone is very curious slowly after the withdrawal of foreign capital in the end we are very curious about how much still must yield to the Chinese market the dividend under such a big part of this teacher your own observations are there some recent changes I feel like it until now not much change and I think that all of China's development and economic cooperation of outside companies will be basically to dictatorship of the CCP yield I rarely hear that there are foreign companies for political reasons against the contrary they could for example say they will try to influence their electoral hopes the election results the country's emergence in China CCP CCP ill fall so far as to undermine the country's democratic system favorable the results in the CCP autocracy that if foreign companies obey the national government from the political reasons for the sanctions against these companies would make the CCP in China ready to end business or initiative to withdraw from the Chinese market, for example say you do not include purchases of raw materials from China reduce corporate dependence on the Chinese market sales or reduce it from the point of view of these situations, then expect foreign companies from the perspective of social responsibility to try to change the CCP's political system is ordered or manufactured goods from China passively slowly withdrawn under the CCP's counter in general, impossible if the foreign national government issued a decree against the CCP's destruction of trouble from foreign companies do not honestly comply with the provisions of national laws to make it even business social responsibility but you have to take the initiative from private companies to non-profit organizations angle to care about China's human rights, environmental protection, social justice, and so it seems a little rant because foreign companies simply can not afford to intervene in China's authoritarian rule is up to them to uphold their conscience among economic operators do not do bad things has been very good in fact, the reason why many foreign companies to invest in China not do charity or to promote democratic ideals but There to take advantage of cheap labor and lax environmental regulations to make a profit low wages and high pollution caused me give you the example of Foxconn Terry Gou he set up a number of large factories there are hundreds of thousands of labor hired him very popular in China governments around the interior of China but welcomed the Foxconn management is very demanding work long hours so that workers are dissatisfied with previous years there have been a dozen times in succession at Foxconn factory worker committed suicide in Taiwan this situation is probably not had jumped after a dozen this situation occurs if there is anyone in Taiwan caused by plant workers inside the factory of suicide jump off the top of the building not to mention a dozen have not got a great uproar, but the Chinese called this jump in more than a dozen Communist rule Foxconn is no real pressure by ah but he continued to expand investment so there is the same problem a lot of exhaust pollution emissions in China's enterprises in the country's far more than the standard but these companies do not care about the CCP no pressure so that the talk to economic globalization, this problem although this economic globalization is recognized as normal industrial layout but the layout itself will be drilled in different countries related to economic and environmental institutional loopholes in China made the world so some scholars in China's economy among global competitiveness is partly belongs called "low human rights advantage" means that the Chinese authorities abandoned the pursuit of economic growth and environmental protection standards for the management and control as well as the public interest in this form but also attract many foreign companies take advantage of this opportunity to make money the other is the opportunity to foreign companies in China for the Chinese Communist Party was forced to yield also showed the free transfer of technology as well as trade secrets with this in exchange for market access which is actually the CCP in violation of international conventions forcing foreign intellectual property rights of foreign companies have to make in order CCP undermine the global rule of law in order to act as accomplices of the CCP has been able to quickly upgrade a large part of the technical capacity of its manufacturing technology in the short term comes from the practice before we talked about in this regard is actually the Chinese Communist Party used to be glamorous this practice as a national policy that the root causes of the Sino-US trade war will be here the cause of Sino-US trade war is the intellectual property issues Chinese official media said the United States accused China of cheating athletes so the CCP accused the United States is bullying so-called trade CCP is cheating player refers to the total of a policy called "a market for technology" is a long-term policy this means is that you must surrender foreign companies want their technology to set up factories in China I checked the file 22 March 1984 No Chinese State Council approved and transmitted for some comments on the State Economic and Trade Commission "report on efforts to combine technology and trade and old equipment purchase work" among the external merchandise trade and the introduction of technology combined with the implementation of Jimao part of our foreign exchange market this advanced technology is a major policy to accelerate technological progress in our country this is the policy that stole in April 1998, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to further expand opening up foreign investment to improve the level of a Opinions have a document of this document, there are two of them explicitly mentioned the need to implement "market for technology" so when the Chinese Communist Party to join the World Trade Organization WTO is expressly prohibited foreign mandatory transfer of technology so that end the CCP would have to modify the regulations literally not to mention that slogan so has joined the WTO for 18 years and now has 20 years' use market for technology "policy from the bright into the dark now come forward by Difangzhengfu continue to require foreign companies to produce technical drawings and example to say this in quotes recent years, China proposed to "made in China 2025" program is to achieve representative wants to enter the "world factory" technology upgrade this goal within a few years high-end manufacturing in order to achieve this goal CCP "get" "Getting" the theft of such activities on foreign technology has become increasingly active and therefore put the defense of intellectual property rights infringement and became a key point of dispute between China and the large number of civilian high-technology manufacturing to China to enter it would have been required can not depend on government funding to carry out research and development because the cost of the kind of high technology development takes a long time so he is on the line this government-funded research and development of products and technologies that form applies only to military areas in civilian areas it actually so do not have the commercial value of the CPC competition from foreign fishing technology is the words I'm talking about fishing techniques pleasant view speak bluntly stealing is stealing this technology has become the world an important means of technological upgrading of plant and shortcuts so a lot of the same the industry is forced foreign companies to enter the free transfer of technology to cut-throat competition CCP is that you do not let him let the other on another foreign company is the result of this competition will but let's not let technology do not come to hand over technology instead, the company's passive and CCP also threatened the free transfer of foreign technology is not allowed to speak out or you are very sad day in China so this is the case of foreign companies are free to sell the technology suffered a major loss would not say that I remember a few years ago in Taiwan bit Mr. Gao Wei state enterprises has been in trouble the podium in this regard was, I remember one time in Kaohsiung and I did the same field with him in a speech like Sun Yat-sen then later ask the CCP unpaid foreign technology is more appetite then to the greater demands on technical standards and technical standards so more and more foreign companies to survive will face increasing threats and international criticism and boycott are more and more so the final is the CCP will simply get Key technology from foreign companies forced to transfer technology becomes stolen on issues of global espionage rampage that would involve the US and China's intelligence war today, so I will not start talking about the Communist threat to the democratic system and democratic countries are often to weaken the technical and economic competitiveness democracies through espionage war theft technology to further shake the employment and social stability and technological development capacity of democracies ultimately shake the system of democracy foundation to make red penetration forces rooted help China win without fighting so the CCP a United States 直在實行這樣的戰略 對台灣也是如此 這我想這個事情 真的也是我們應該要 很認真嚴肅來做關注 就是我們提到了現在說的 也有人講一個很經典的一句話 就是企業不賺錢是一種罪過 但君子愛財取之有道 我們還是認為企業 你本來還有自己的一些核心 應該有價值啦 但我覺得終究最重要 還有一點是我們可以做的 我覺得在西方 很正常在推消費者的運動 我覺得我們必須要透過 消費者的力量來壓迫 其實我覺得就是消費者力量的團結 雖然不容易喔 但這也是我們自己很微小的個別力量 也許可以來做的部分 這一點我覺得也可以 給大家做一個參考 那我們看到當然有關這個外資 對於中國市場的這個依賴 是否該怎麼走 這樣的報導越來越多 他當然提醒所有的這些外商 必須對中國市場更為謹慎 當然也提到必須開始做一些轉移 他其中也提到了台灣 台灣有許多的外資也陸續撤出 有一些部分遇到的為難是 他想跑跑不出去 他的資金可能還留在這個中國的境內 所以就遇到了許多包含我們的觀眾 也有一些台商一直很關心這個問題 他怎麼樣讓他可以安全全然地撤出 就老師您自己對於中國經濟的瞭解 怎麼辦呢 老師你有什麼建議嗎 剛才宏林兄提到了 這個博明的這篇文章 他主要是對美國企業講的 那麼他認為是說美國商界長期以來 都用「到中國投資有利可圖」做理由 不願意中美經濟關係惡化 但他認為說中美兩國 政治上的對抗是不可避免的 而且中共已經給美國畫下了 這個政治上的紅線 就是說中共的制度、立場、價值觀 不許批評更不許挑戰 那麼與台灣有關的就是 中共是把民主台灣 和中共統治的新疆、西藏 是等同起來的 認為都屬於它的紅線範圍內的東西 那麼我以前在多次節目裡講過 中共是反這個點燃了中美冷戰 也談到過中美之間 事實上處於軍事、經濟、諜報 和政治方面的對抗關係 冷戰的規律是說只要冷戰開始了 紅色大國就一定會一孤行走到底 因為勝敗關係到他自己的生死存亡 另一方面冷戰當中失敗的一方 必然是紅色大國 所以從這個角度去理解的話 中美冷戰這個局勢出現以後 跨國企業確實面臨著 在中美冷戰當中如何生存的問題 具體來講就是博明提到了 你企業站在哪一邊 你騎牆騎不久的 在這裡我想到兩個問題 第一個是和主持人講的有關 就是你幫哪一邊 你幫中共還是幫自己的母國 第二個問題就是可能更現實 我們不討論價值觀 第二個更現實就是你站哪一邊死得快 第一個問題好像比較溫和 常見說法就是主持人剛才提到的問題 政經分開政治歸政治生意歸生意 我哪邊也不幫我只做生意 第二個問題很冷酷了 你自己判斷你站在哪一邊死得快 第二個問題不是講說你站在哪一邊 企業活得更好 而是說你站錯邊會死得很徹底 會死得更早 那麼到底是站在民主世界 這一邊安全 還是站到世界上唯一的紅色大國 那邊死得快 對這個問題的答案 涉及到很多這個世界冷戰史的知識 也涉及到對中美兩國 各方面狀態的分析和研判 今天我是沒時間來談冷戰 適合美國的狀況 以後可以專門來談 現在我想集中談一個問題 就是台商怎麼看待 商人和共產黨之間的關係 就是還是從剛才那個 第二個冷酷的問題來設問 就是說台商或者說商人 我這個商人不光是台商 也包括中共自己的商人 商人和共產黨政權誰死得快 很多台商會講說沒關係啦 我認識我們當地的中共官員 平時相處很開心啊 我們經常一起拚酒啊這是小局 我現在講的是共產黨政權 死得快還是死得慢的問題 不是某地某個中共官員他的生死 所以是要從大局來分析 最近我看到有一則關於台商 在中國命運三階段的一個分析的報導 這是《大紀元時報》從台灣報導的 然後《美國之音》的粵語部跟進報導 它的來源是這樣 就是台灣有一個民間社團 叫《經濟民主聯合》 10月13號舉辦了一個叫做 《台商西進30年 共同富裕還是撤退終局》 這樣一個線上論壇 其中中研院社會學所 有一位研究員林宗弘先生 他是這樣分析的 他說台商在中國經商的歷程 今分為三個時期就是1992年 到2007年之間是鍍金時期 2008年亞洲金融海嘯 到2014年太陽花學運是巨浪的時期 最後是2015年以來 台資明顯出現了外移中國 或者經營衰退的退潮時期 那麼這個趨勢我覺得他分析得 還是很準確而且蠻明顯的 在這兒我就還是要回到前面 那個比較冷酷的問題 商人和中共政權誰死得快 我講一下我在這方面的分析 我的結論也是一個四階段規律 這個中共改革開放以後 其實就面臨了這個商人和中共政權 誰死得快的規律 以前我在節目裡講過 中共的改革開放 到了90年代以後就形成了 經濟制度上的共產黨資本主義 這個階段就是1997年到2002年 在中共的全面私有化過程當中 共產黨的官員變成了資本家 那麼第二階段就是2002年到2013年 在這段時間紅色的商人 這個掏空了共產黨政權 拚命地貪污腐敗 然後積累了巨額的資產 再轉移到美國這些地方 前面我講的離岸金融中心那些錢 還有現在香港那些錢 基本上就是他們的錢 另外他們會在美國買房子辦綠卡 如果習近平不在上台以後 反腐敗的話 從2013年到現在 他們可能已經轉走了10萬億美金以上 那就把中共政權掏空了 有一點大家要清楚 貪官不是為了民主化掏空中國 他一點都不恨共產黨政權 他們怕共產黨政權會清算 貪官的判斷並沒有錯唷 共產黨政權真的在清算 第三個階段就是商人和共產黨關係 就是2013年到2021年到今年 共產黨習近平就開始打擊紅色資本家 前面我們主持人也提到了 被打擊的不只是貪官 也包括單純經商的人 那麼對貪官現在習近平是已經這個 抓了幾10萬人了 剩下的混過關的混過來 他們留在海外的錢財也摸不到了 同時因為護照也被沒收了 海關的電腦裡也都有 他們限制出境的名單 所以他們跑不掉了 然後就今年開始打擊中國 大型的這個私營企業 故事很多啦我就不列舉了 習近平之所以要這樣幹 目的很簡單 就是讓共產黨中共政權免於滅頂之災 那麼如果說商人和共產黨政權 「誰死得快」這個問題 第四個階段就是從明年 習近平時代的新時代開始 那麼大概會有個1、20年 中共的經濟會越來越困難 那麼當中共政權先陷入經濟困境 或者是比這種局面還要嚴重的時候 就會有出現我們前面講 這個冷酷的問題 商人和共產黨政權誰先死 中共會不會為了保護商人的利益 放棄自己的政權 甘願上斷頭台啊 為了哪怕上了斷頭台 也要保護商人的利益 我想用膝蓋想都會明白 中共最後沒有錢的時候 是一定會拿商人開刀的 他今年就已經在這樣做了 這樣的做法其實就是搜刮 商人的錢財來延續政權 一直到他的政權的最後一天 所以到了這個時候 外商和中共貪官的命運是差不多的 都是拿著外國護照出不了境 因為他們是屬於待宰的羔羊 那麼這樣的結果 道理上其實不難想像的 之所以沒有人講 是因為大家沒想到往這方面思考 至於在中國賺錢的台商 很多人是因為不是這個 不願意這樣想而是... 而也不是糊塗到想像不出來 說到底他還是這個 對這個站在民主制度這一邊 還是站在紅色大國那邊 沒有完全想清楚 因為實際上你站在哪一邊 就博明提出了這個問題 它不光是個關於個人財產的安全問題 你不要講生意歸生意 等到腦袋跟生意比的時候 你要哪一個 所以不光是個人財產的安全問題 還涉及到人身安全問題 所以這個話不是危言聳聽 但是我覺得現在還真有必要提醒一下 因為從現在起也就是1、20年時間 這個問題就會成為現實問題 是我想老師這個特別 也提醒我們這些台商啦 當然我們剛剛提到了到底該怎麼做 我想不止台灣啦 各國可能都會有 如果中共持續用這麼...

獨裁惡霸的一些方式 我覺得都值得我們好好來關注 所以今天程曉農老師 所帶來的這些評析 我想也可以給大家做一個 重要的一個參考 再次感謝程曉農博士謝謝老師 不會謝謝我們觀眾朋友們 我們下次節目再見

2021-12-03 03:27

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