[LIVE] Day Trading | How The Recency Effect Works (Weekend Withdrawal)
hey it's clay at claytrader.com this will be a live trade video where i try to capture some of my trades as i play out live market opens up here in about 10 minutes if you are new to these videos very quickly what do i mean by live well what i mean is that this is not a situation where everything has already been recorded and now i'm coming back doing a post commentary or some sort of voice over i'm recording myself right now seeing the information for the very first time so if you want raw thoughts raw emotions raw reactions you will get that with the video if you want a nicely edited video nicely scripted video you will not get that with this video but if you want the nitty gritty kind of deep down dirty look into what it's like to be a day trader how day trading can play out then you will get that like i said in the video here watching right now kodk so if you're not familiar with my screen right there and i'm watching 13 very closely in fact already alerted it to the community if you're not familiar at claytrader.com i do offer a private community so right there just get my watch list and then mention kodk 13 key upside break point so i might take a pre-market trade on it i really like the setup here and actually let me bring down so there's the pre-market chart on it right there although right now it is pulling back so maybe that will never come into play because again like i said these are live so perhaps 13 won't even uh be a a valid trade plan but that's just kind of how these videos go at times and that's how trading goes you might identify a level and that level may never come into play but that's the current game plan right now market opens up about nine minutes so i'll go ahead and pause all right watching la zr out of the opening gates kind of came out of nowhere i mean right before the market open volume just came pouring into it so just kind of seeing what it wants to do here very very jumpy very very volatile stock if you do hear typing you're not crazy that's uh me just making alerts in the to my private community let's get that to the one minute forgot to change that over put an order out there to short at 36.50 i don't know if the price is gonna get up there or not i might be uh getting a little too hopeful on that one but let's see if it can break up through 35 that's currently the very stubborn level here all right well i'm gonna go ahead and pause for now looking like i'll just have to let some of these stocks out there settle down a little bit although i miss kodk on that 13. miss it clearly just because i'm was watching lazy r so there's that 13 uh wow now very nice move up there well congrats to members uh that played that let's see if this thing can get up to 36.50 got up through 35.
so again 36.50 that's where i'm looking at i'd like more than 500 chairs without at least allowing me to get my feet wet into the position now it's pulling back here so i'm wondering about 34.50 nice potentially let's see get up over 35 first nope down through 30 34.50 it goes well all right not uh now granted the market's only been open three minutes but not really any setups here that are giving me an opportunity to make a move on i i suppose kodk did but i just simply wasn't watching it oh wow what a fast move on that one i mean it still made a great move about 60 cents and then just turned around big time all right i'm gonna go ahead and pause watching stpk here for short of 1540 in at 15 44. just looking for a little bit of a scalp here see if we can get it down there we go and it's pausing already uh i'll hang on to 100 shares then see if it wants to get any more push to the downside so still have 100 shares actually try to scalp out of everything but with the partial decided you know at this point why not hang on to 100 but i'm even questioning if that's worth it as suspected yeah it's i mean it moves but not really which is why i said uh a quick little scalp there and that kind of when i hung out of the shares and just continue to watch i mean you can see just watch the level two it's moving but not really but kind of moving um so there we go up 67 67 bucks in under a minute i'll take it but let's see what else i can find you know i mentioned 3450 earlier on this one and once again 3450 is in play i'm not gonna i'm not interested in showing it on this particular candle but uh made alert in the room he said i'm not interested in taking it on this candle so this particular candle needs to stay up above the 37 well it's more so 37.60 now don't break it on this candle don't break it don't do it don't do it yeah 3460.
look at all that look at that buy that you dirty dog ah and there it goes well i i know in hindsight clay why don't you just take it on that candle you're right you're absolutely right in hindsight i should have done that i shouldn't have been such a high maintenance trader but i just i wanted to see that one stay up above it and i was wrong as now look at this go well again the consolidation prize at least it was alerted to members because you see remember some members they might have felt comfortable taking it then and and that's why we're not it's not a a member or you know a group of sheep we're like a wolf pack we work together to say hey look at that but then we leave it up to each person to to make those final hunting decisions so for the people that decided no i don't need to wait for the next scandal then they just had a a very nice move right in their favor um but yeah for me as you saw there i just got left behind so uh all right gonna go ahead and pause let's see if i can find anything else all right watching 14 here on kodak good nice yeah pull back some more pull back some more and then come back up again we'll just be looking for a scalp hair i've been struggling going long on breakouts so let's see if we can get it up through 14. and i love the pattern here i think if it can break through 14 should go nicely there we go kind of nope oh deja vu let's see if it wants to go again effect big time right now this feels oh so similar oh now the pullback i'm the overall chart still looks fine but i tried i tried i tried and this is what has been happening these annoying breaks and then pullbacks see if it wants to make another go to the upside here again the overall pattern still looks fine but i'm just really struggling with these long sided trades recently so we'll see if it wants to make another go up through 14. i'm out i'm not even gonna i don't care just doesn't feel right and i realize it very well could be the recency effect uh but the past few have done this exact thing by the breakout and look at that there it goes by the breakout it breaks out you give it a chance to keep on breaking out and then it doesn't so all right now i'm down 28 on the day but in all actuality i should still be watching 14 because it's still a nice little pattern it just happened to come down and i can always reset the trade and try again and i will probably actually watch 14 but i'm just not gonna risk holding and having it continue on down i'd rather just take the loss and then wait to see if it wants to come back up to 14 again uh at that point i'd be interested but right now it also would not shock me because it just seems like that's how the market's been recently just it breaks nice patterns and then kind of moves and then just drops right back to where it was like i said i'll keep an eye on it let's see if it wants to get back up to 14 likes i would not be surprised at all to see this thing pull back even further but like i said maybe i was wrong to have sold maybe this thing will recover and head back up uh but you know unfortunately like i said this is uh this is live trading i don't know what's going to happen yeah we'll see if it wants to work its way up to 14. if it does that would be a
nice little impressive sign of strength to once again bounce back from this pull back here but i don't even know this thing's not even really moving that that fast and what's it gonna if it breaks down through 1350 should get a relatively big jolt to the downside where did i get out at got out of 1380 so yeah quite a bit up quite a bit of ways uh above where the price is currently at right now like i said a 1350 cannot hold up what is that down there what is that high 13 up there goes all right well i'll go ahead and pause but yeah as of now down 28 dollars coming back here on lazr what uh what a move i missed there not missed i just didn't fit my criteria but there was that 3450 break went all the way down to 33. now i'm wondering what about a potential move back to the upside about 34.75 but i have been struggling on going long i'll be like clay do you ever go long i do go along and it's a struggle but again 30 that looks great 34 80. let me get that alerted because that actually looks lazr 3480 upside breakpoint one minute and more so 34.75 in there at 34 64. i think this thing i mean it looks great all right there we go 110 bucks on that i have no problem admitting i liked it enough to take the scalp do i trust it enough to keep breaking out i do not and right there you'll read about that in books the recency effect meaning i am letting my most long my most recent long trade affect me and do you see how it affected me right there i mean this was a whole new trade um and i don't know what you call it when you know what you're doing like i realized that i was just getting out because of the recency effect so it's not like i'm not aware but like i said i i think there might have been a little bit of just i got but look at this even now if this thing goes red then i'm sorry but there is something wrong in the market when it comes to going long please go green because i don't want to be scared to go long i want to be confident to go long so i just want this to go yeah all right don't this is going to be bad for my psychology if this thing ultimately just goes right here because again right there nice little pattern nice little pattern gotta break out but then that pulling back now one candle doesn't make or break a move so it's gonna sting if this thing keeps going up because yeah i had a great entry point but for my own there we go at least get up to 36 this thing should at least have a chance to 36 but i just felt way better with the scalp on that one however uh you know just and i like to use these as my personal journal too so i i'm talking to my i'm talking to you as viewers but i also like myself but as of and if you've watched past videos um there my losses have been on longs i buy the breakout i i try to let them break out and then they totally fail like like you saw with a kodk and then you know of course the one that i don't let break out oh no go look at this look at that thing please keep breaking out but so you that that's a recency effect and like i said i don't know what you're supposed to call it when you know that what you're doing is probably what you shouldn't be doing but for me i think what i i know what it is it's just i know my psychology and for me it's just you know what i i don't want to be scared to go long i want to still have faith in the going along process and to know that i went long and i walked away with 110 bucks and i don't know how long did that trade last uh what 14 seconds yeah 14 seconds no that's not right 16 seconds i'm not a math wizard no it was 14 seconds so 14 seconds 110 by going long i'm not sure of any place in the world where you can make 110 in 14 seconds and i went long doing that there we go yes breakout breakout just get up to 36.
that way i can still have you know trust in the overall long process too that you can actually get some bigger moves there but i have no problem in that right now as far as getting bigger moves going from the long side it just does not feel possible with my recent track record of going long and trying to get bigger moves like i said from that kodk trade i could have totally scalped that thing out for a quick quick 50 60 but i tried to let it break out a little bit more and it still even do that there we go i'll put 36. fantastic all right good and again right there if you're curious how does your chat room work right there 3480 upside break point so that makes me feel very good that the people that played it the right way not that i played it the wrong way i knew i wanted to scalp it but the reasoning for wanting to scalp it was the wrong way right to sit there and say long sided trades never work unless you scalp no that that's not true at all because here had i not scalped i'd be up uh you know over a dollar a share but um so again yes i wasn't wrong to scalp but i made 110 in 14 seconds but my reasoning for scalp it's sitting there saying making stupid blanket statements of well i have to scale because long side of trades you can't get any big moves on those things anymore that's just my mind being overly dramatic but uh and if you've never traded before i probably sound like a crazy person but i i assure you when you start training with not not demo trading no offense to demo trading but that's not real money on the line but when you start to trade with real money on the line and assuming you want to have success right if you're just here with real money and you're just a degenerate gambler then who cares like you probably like the voices that show up but if you want to treat this seriously and get consistent at it you're going to have voices and you're going to have to have these conversations that i'm having with myself out loud with you and i want to share this with you just so you know that you're not alone as a trader if you've ever had a situation where you get burned and then the very next trade oh it would have worked out had i you know you're not alone but you got to just understand why are you doing that and for me i picked scalping because i was just making stupid thoughts like it'll never work out it'll never work out and as i stall you can see that that was a it did work out and look at it go so yeah i get it i look like a right now i look like a but that's that's just how my voice that's how my psychology was working right now and it'll make probably more sense if you watch the other videos of recent trades where i've gone long and then i still take losses in fact what was it i don't remember what what day but xpev two trades in a row tried to go long same beautiful setup loss loss and then a couple and then this one loss another one where i'm like all right let me just get a win on going long so i'm gonna scalp hey oh that one would have worked out beautifully but that's awesome for members so congratulations members if you were somebody that you know bought around that 3480 point fantastic but uh yeah so now i'm back up 82 dollars uh it's almost 30 minutes in so i might have to just call it a day if you can't tell my my psychology is kind of out of i mean it's not out of whack i'm i'm well i'm in tune with why i'm doing the decisions i am but that doesn't mean that they were good decisions um but all right i'm gonna go ahead and pause we'll see if i can find another trade and i swear the the trading gods are out 155.50 should i try going long well never mind because there it goes as i was deciding well like i said for my own personal psycho great all right good i mean that stinks that i didn't go long there but good to see that this actually did break out got a good move to the upside now grant i'd like to see it get more continuation but it was still overall a good solid break and once again i mean members are doing fantastic there we are mrna 155 upside break point so any members that took that um i mean how far did it go they just got a quick and what about a 75 move in their favor but yeah i uh going long right now it's it's definitely a struggle definitely a struggle all right i'm gonna go ahead and pause well mrna continues to go um but it is building my confidence i i do feeling better about going long knowing that uh had i acted a a half second quicker that i would be in a very solid trade right now uh but yeah once again to members congratulations but uh for me i'm just sitting from the sideline but sometimes this is what you this is what i need i don't know if it's what you need but for me you kind of just gotta you know just see things play i'm like okay yeah that does still work meaning for me that voice that's sitting up sitting around saying you just going long you can never make any sort of good money i mean that was a liar of a voice and now we've had two in a row that have proven that um but yeah sometimes there is value in not taking a trade and that's per se but just observing and like okay yeah that worked out and building that confidence back up and mrna as it continues to go so yeah awesome for members awesome for me too feeling good about going long especially on today i can't find really anything to really go short and the one short i did go on uh you know was kind of just i mean that was i would argue that was definitely a good scalp i mean that was a stock that yeah i probably should just do a scalp on um but other than that i haven't seen really anything out there worthwhile going short on but i might be calling it a day here soon uh so maybe not the most exciting video i mean three trades but i i would argue this is probably been one of the more important videos i've done in a long time in terms of trader psychology and specifically the recency effect and how it works and you know and not from a textbook definition but from like a real world you just literally witnessed how it all played out here and look at mrna go so i'm continuing to stall just so you can see how mrna continues to move from that 155 breakout point but yeah good stuff there all right i'll pause at 158 55 here to get short on mrna so in there for my opening allotment out there for a quick 75 i wanted more than 500 but in fact let me do this real quick 159. start the process up there again at 159 55. again i want more than 500 shares but i mean i'm not going to turn down a 75 bill i always use the analogy if i was walking down the street and i saw a 75 bill sitting there and i said you know it's going to take me about 30 seconds to bend over and pick up that 75 bill is it worth your time i'm not jeff bezos i'm not elon musk so i feel like those people would probably lose money uh if they actually spent you know the 10 seconds to pick up that 75 bill but i'm not them so for me it would definitely be worth my time to bend over and pick that up uh so that's why i'm willing to take that 75 there but like i said i was ideally wanting more than 500 shares but i'll start the process over again up here at 159 55. so i'll go ahead and pause and if it
looks like it's going to fill me i'll get the video rolling cancel that order out um you can see it got up as high as 159.43 so 12 cents away on that one wouldn't have worked out but let's all remember where is that alert made 155.50 and look at this thing so talk about a confidence builder from the long side yeah 155 50 upside break point and why did that thing break out so for any of you members that uh are still riding that well done i mean i i don't even see how you would i mean maybe right here would find maybe being stopping you out i guess it depends on how they managed it uh but from my perspective fantastic um confidence builder to know that oh yeah you can still make good money going long so it doesn't always have to be a scalp but uh well let's see it's 1006 so i like to be done on average right around 30 minutes a day so i'm a little bit above average today but i'll just take the 157 dollars especially when that includes a losing trade of almost 100 so i'll take it and at the end of the day i'm not a greedy savage 150 bucks for 30 minutes of quote unquote work i don't know many places in the world where you can make 30 or make excuse me 150 in 30 minutes of of work and when the work is pressing buttons online not too bad real quick if you are interested in getting these alerts that you saw play out here then all you got to do is go to claytrader.com forward slash team
and i offer my services there the way to approach that and we'll use this pricing model 99 not per month but for three months which breaks down to eight dollars and 25 cents per week it's just you know if i make the investment of 99 do i think this service will give me at least eight dollars and 25 cents per week of value if you think it'll give you at least eight dollars and 25 cents per week of value then you will get a great return on your investment and then also as far as this video is concerned please hit that like button if you enjoy these um these they're not the easiest to make uh i will keep making them if i know that there's interest and the easy way to communicate that to me is hit that like button and then just leave a simple comment even if it's a thumbs up emoji a smiley face emoji comments and hitting that like button let me know yeah clay these may not be the easiest given you have to talk to us given you have to think for yourself given you have to think for your community type up alerts for your community to you know press buttons for yourself for your own trades i mean there is a lot going on and again these are live this is not a voice over so i i'm literally doing everything spur of the moment not easy but doable and i will keep doing them but i just need to know that it's worth my time so like i said the easy way to communicate that to me hit the like button and even just a simple thanks clay comment smiley face emoji goes a long way and then also check out the channel as the whole i'm not a believer in saying hey subscribe to my channel after one video okay it's one video but i'd ask hey check out the channel look at everything else and hopefully you like what you see enough to hit that subscribe button as i'd love to have you as a subscriber but yeah just be aware of the recency effect it's a very real thing acknowledge it uh and do what you have to do to overcome it and you saw how i helped overcome it now by watching some of these other long uh plays play out very nicely um so you're not alone if you struggle with it it's there it's you're a human being so just be aware of it and do what you need to do like i said to deal with it thanks for hanging out first off thanks so much for watching the entire video real quick before you go i want to invite you to a live webinar web class training workshop online event whatever you want to call it but it will be me live revealing to you what i discovered that has allowed me to transform myself from being an employee to being my own boss including how i had only one losing day out of 73 days in total i'm going to cover three keys that have helped me unlock profitable consistency within the markets the first key is super weird but in a productive type of way the second key is super awesome because it quite literally is wired into our dna as humans making it very easy to use but in a cruel way this becomes a pitfall for many traders i'll explain it all though including how to avoid the pitfall that it creates for some and yeah the third key when you hear it sounds way too good way too good to be true but it's not and i'll show you how it all works then at the end i open it up for a question and answer session that is again totally live even if you can't make the live session please still sign up as it will be recorded and you can go back and watch the replay that i will send you click the image on the screen or click the link down in the description box so you can get the date and time and claim your spot which i should note is limited due to the fact that this truly is a live event if you have any questions let me know if not i'll be seeing you soon