$BTC  BREAKOUT?  4/2/22

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yeah yeah   we're all about fun big chats  in the house saturday night   we're just grooving to a little bit of uh funky  music that's church eight wheels you know we're   all crypto nerds trying to pretend we're cool  so the music helps uh music definitely helps   i am big chats it is saturday it's the second day  of april i am blessed i'm thankful to be alive   and i'm thankful that you're here listening to  me it's a lot of fun um i'm i'm a chart guy i'm   a newbie helper i love i love charity i love ta i  love bitcoin that's kind of what i do that's why   i'm here uh let's check in with the chat room  i feel the positive energy listen folks i've   been waiting i've been like wanting to do a show  i've been putting off i've been putting it off   um you know of course um i'm a founding analyst  at bitcoin live and i do twice a week long-form   market analysis there and that's something i  you know i don't skip a beat on that that's   something incredibly important to me i'll do a uh  update tomorrow for the the closing weekly candle   um but for these videos i mean  you know the youtube videos   they can wait and i apologize they can wait  bitcoin live cannot wait you know i gotta find   the right time so i have some thoughts i have some  tweets i've kind of considered uh covering tonight   um but there's great stuff up there right like  of course i'm on twitter i'm at big chad's but   i'm all over the map uh you don't know what i'm  talking about you have no idea what i'm talking   about i'm being cryptic i'm being random go  watch my youtube stuff i mean i'm trying to   speak to everyone but i also want i'm always  trying to push you i want to push you a little bit   i want to make you think like what is what  does that mean right so anyway go watch my uh   go watch my my live stream educational live stream  tutorials it'll help you get started trading watch   the long form interview series i've got a great  interview coming up monday with peter mccormick   long-time associate big fan of his and that  should be super fun um check out the uh quick   market updates and of course i am the author of  trading wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know   that can be found right now on amazon for formats  audio kindle uh hardcover and paperback if you   don't want to buy the book i i totally get it  just just check out the free version on my youtube   channel chad's trading and by the way please  do consider hit uh hitting like and subscribe   uh by the way check out the free version of  the book i've done 13 of the 50 lessons i will   eventually do the entire book for you for free  just to wait i'll get it done for you eventually   by the way i do have book three coming out shortly  in the next few months my book on trading quotes   um so thank you for letting me get that  out of the way as always i would like to   give a little bit of love to the chat room  and um folks this is a worldwide phenomenon   folks are here from iowa uh we have our man happy  ramadan happy ramadan to you as well i want to say   thank you and i want to i wish you that as well i  appreciate you aloha from the islands aloha aloha   it's nice to see you uh let's see how everybody's  doing from all around the world it's a worldwide   phenomenon hello from jordan um checking in from  every everybody else people from all over the   world you know it's fun these are things um you  know what a time to be alive really what a time   to be alive we can you can just turn on your phone  your tablet maybe you're on the sofa and you're   looking at me or we can communicate we can talk  um so that that's fun look i really appreciate you   being here thank you uh for joining hello from  romania italy saudi arabia i mean look at this   i'm just a guy hanging out i get all these great  people from all over the world hi from arkansas   uh nice to see you in sydney australia as  well israel and philly no doubt that's a cool   city by the way philadelphia um sydney london  texas what's going on what's going on down in   texas much love from the netherlands um i've been  watching that uh on netflix the last kingdom i've   really been looking into like 9th and 10th century  history and that like the pagan versus christian   thing with like the vikings and like the north  sea all those kings and all the changing stuff   i'm really into that really into that so that's  interesting um anyway you're not here to listen   to me talk about that you are here probably hear  me talk about bitcoin um i kind of study it i   follow it i eat sleep and breathe it i find it  interesting we're in a really interesting spot   so i kind of selected a series of tweets um that  i have been uh bitcoin live members in the house   awesome thank you so i know i'm late but i  wasn't sure i had my friend was texting me   was arguing with me about something it's one  of those friends you can't like get out of the   conversation you have to like no you know back  and forth really trying to one-up each other   um hello to everyone else morocco and  delaware and uk costa rica that's awesome um   we're in the really interesting spot right so you  know if you're if you're not sure where to begin   you know kind of referred at least my prior um my  prior youtube videos my these market updates where   i've kind of talked about the structure where we  have that well-established resistance level 46k   and you think about these classical charting  concepts um and really what should inform you   you start from that kind of like supply demand  level and and how that level is established and   you've got a well-established level you've got  the time interval which means the attempts in   between uh you know the the time between all the  all the uh the price interactions with the level   what i mean by that is uh middle december test  to support test it again you know a few weeks   later right that's part of a different move so  that's one data point two data points really   three data points arguably four you know five  even here six you could argue that was a data   point in terms of the price interaction with the  zone right classical charting so you have the more   price interactions with the zone the more  significance it has the more important it is   right so you've got all that cooking right we've  talked about that what that means is basically   the fact that in kind of like non-technical terms  you have the fact that bitcoin attempted to bottom   uh back in december let me pardon me attempted  to bottom back in december and you have the um   kind of that failed technical terms a  failed double ever failed double bottom   right double rounded bottom it attempted to bottom  right at that level at 45k right so it's kind of   said hey this is an important area and when it  lost it it came back and it couldn't flip it so   that's been the zone you've got a well-established  level at 45 to 46 k and for momentum's sake   you know whoever wants to say they have the  trend they need to hold that level like this is a   this is this is such an important level in  this chart at least in terms of the last you   know several months okay you can always if you're  if you're a bull you can always just say hey look   at the weekly or look at the monthly look at the  yearly chart like we get it right we're not here   to make our trades based on the yearly chart  like we get it so thanks for the meme right   the point is who has control of the trend um and we've been in this corrective environment  ever since we put in the double top ever since   we put in the double top with the up thrust back  in november ever since we lost the ma200 we've   been trying to recapture the ma200 okay and by all  these ways you can measure these bounces you know   you can measure these bounces the lower bollinger  moving average bounce lower bollinger moving   average bounce you know lower lower bollinger to  moving average balance and recapture so now we're   starting to get the kind of moving average  recaptures right what does that mean that's   the downtrend going sideways so we know we're  sideways so we know we're sideways minimally right   um please check your twitter books about questions  uh question books books of study uh let me show   you go here i have this shortcut which i've  saved in my mind from big chad's packet type   this in twitter search new follower packet you  get all that stuff right right there type from   big chess packet so whatever that that should  answer your question all right uh let's see okay   um ma200 right so you've got the price  you have this level being established um   and you and you need to you need to recapture that  because that's been the long-term moving average   in classical charting the ma200 is the trend you  want to have a rising ma200 with the price above   it and ever since we've kind of topped off we've  been correcting and we've had these moves lower   bollinger you know to upper bollinger and then  here we've been sideways with the m8 with you   know kind of the moving average recapture that i  just talked about ama ema34 well first ema eight   then 34 then the 50. um and then you start the  higher low structure right you're seeing all the   the elements of a bottoming right you're  seeing all the elements of a bottoming kind of   one um piece at a time you have a low right you  have a clear low and that low had its spring   entry right on the uh invalidation of the the  the january 22nd low you formed the spring on   january 24th right you had that entry i guess  we'll go through those entries as well and then   you have the higher low here so you have that  construction to to where you have the higher   lows you have the kind of the downtrend  going sideways you have all that evidence   kind of almost the clinical evidence of of of the  weakening bear trend but you need the bulls to   really step through you need the bulls to confirm  how what does that mean moving average recapture   you know certain amount of days or  a percentage move above a key level   and that key level is 46k right so 46k 46k  46k right you've got 46k you've got higher   low structure now you've got kind of this  ascending triangle this is kind of the most   i would say logical way to look at it  as a bull and the ascending triangle   is normally a bullish continuation pattern  right a well-defined horizontal resistance   with the uh with the ascending hypotenuse  hypotenuse the rising demand in this case   and the measured move would be the height of the  triangle um you know gets us to around 56 58k   but what's really interesting in this  case there's a couple things lining up   one thing you need to always keep in mind when  you're trying to apply the the measured move rule   of classical charting is you want to take into  account uh congestion zones just above so for   example and i did this on the bitcoin live video  on wednesday if you have you know if you have like   say a bull flag and you're taking the measured  move you're taking the height of the flagpole   right if there's like a big resistance level just  above that's going to be in the way right that's   going to kind of hinder you from hitting that from  hitting that um goal or that measured move just   checking in here with the chat room everybody your  words are so welcome i appreciate that good day   little haiti crete greece i've actually been to  uh mykonos before um in athens which is cool good   to see everybody what's up from jersey and hello  from norway uh thank you my friends so that's the   thing you want to keep in mind and in this case  it's the ma200 right so look at this blue line   the blue line the ma200 is really important um  when you lose it you you lost the ma200 here   you lost it with velocity right and i  need to kind of um get back on point i   have some tweets i want to go over when you  lose the ma200 with this kind of velocity   um you're gonna almost always reject in that  first re-test it was just such a strong move   so when you break 46k here um you  have to be on guard or on watch   for a rejection at the ma200 so let's get to  it um here we are uh march 28th all right so   i was let's get let's uh let's clean this  up a little bit let's see what's going on   so march 28th so this day right here right so  we're here shooting star daily shooting star app   at upper bollinger band after ma200 underside  tag notable right so this is like hey chad's   uh you're so cryptic all right well here i am  literally explaining it so you can go back and   watch this video next time i'm being cryptic all  right it's notable it's important and when i say   notable usually it's it's really important um  and here's the point it's it's a reversal candle   at the right spot it's a reversal candle after a  move after a big move with velocity i mean it went   37 to 47 pretty quickly and it's at the upper  bollinger but it has the confluence that it's   happening right at the ma200 and you're almost  always going to reject at the ma200 so it was   kind of a perfect spot uh for an ma200 queensland  australia checking in with everybody else i don't   use the ma100 honestly um i've from my from  what i've studied and learned in practice ma200   but to each their own like i'll never i'll never  claim i have the best method but i will teach you   my method i'll teach you what i know and if it's  of value to you that makes me happy and i'll cut   i would put it that way uh let's see as well so  that's the point we have the shooting star at   the upper bollinger band that's you know  japanese candlestick theory steve nissen   that that's incredibly important what i say here  observing this candle signal this is why candles   are so important look at that i mean you're have  to be defensive if you're paying attention i mean   if you're minimally paying attention you have  to be cautious after that candle i mean you are   you're asleep at the wheel if you are not  cautious after that candle given the context   given the context that the velocity of the move  uh one two three four six seven eight nine i   mean nine green days in a row into the ma200  underside tag shooting star upper bollinger   band i mean you are you are neglect in your duties  if you're not cautious minimally in that all right   it's notable okay um throwback to the 45 to 46k  area would be logical and by the dip right what   is that what does btd mean to buy the dip okay  confluence email why are we buying the dip well   you know it's it's a bit it's a basic  strategy it doesn't mean it always works   um but if you've got a resistance level and  then resistance level is multi-tested with   time interval time in between and you break  out if you come back and you throw back you   want to buy the dip it's just a nice clean entry  it's kind of what you're looking for it's almost   in theory how you should be structuring  your trades a lot of them okay uh   appreciate everybody chat room's great  i'm just checking here hello from   bulgaria great to see you um to look right there  you go oops i just deleted that well that was a   data point oh what i said was pauses all right i  just deleted that let's just find it though pauses okay yes here we go so look if btc pauses let's  there we go b2c pauses so you see a shooting   star on the chart you're like okay btc is probably  going to pause here if bt deposits watch the e-btc   part chart because this is a clear pivot what's  the pivot pivot's like kind of a momentum turning   point and because it's important because when  eth btc is rising bitcoin's not breaking out   right and this is right here this was uh  march march 28th so that was right here   this is right here i'm saying like pay attention  look it's got a pivot what does that mean right   it's right here it's rising that's not bullish  for bitcoin and it's got this big level right   if you clear that level and the ma200 you're  bullish you're really bullish which is not   bullish or bitcoin and that's that's happening  as you're seeing this signal on bitcoin right   the shooting star of the upper bollinger band  so i'm saying watch that pivot and in that tweet   is the suggestion that th here might be  another sign of a local top for bitcoin   all right and then we have sentiment  i mean how good is sentiment   how good a sentiment i could search right now  and i nail i nailed the november top on sentiment   other tops too i'm not the only person but like  i'm proud of what i did and it's sentiment right   and here we it sentiment was was topped it was  really strong and it's it's as good as as any ta i   have that i can teach you just it's just a feeling  because people get really excited and they tend to   get really excited right when you are putting  in that shooting star candle right when you are   at you have had 12 green days in a row and you're  at a key level and they don't care about the ma200   they're excited they don't care about the the over  extension of the price uh they don't care about   the information that has been given  to you in that japanese candlestick   right they don't care about that telling you that  bears are rejecting higher prices and that it's   giving you a kind of a um confirmation with not  only the eastern signal with the candlestick but   the western signal the ma200 the moving average  and kind of that price interaction with the ma200 so what happens next btc the eth to alts why  are we having a big old season look at this   tweet march 29th march 29 29th i'm telling  you our alts are about to have some fun   we are right there and you are feeling a lot more  comfortable about your shooting star candle call   you have essentially a tweezer top forming um  you know basically where the price tried to   rally again and was rejected at the ma200  you know you're getting more confirmation   here on march 29th that your original view of the  march 28th action was um you know right on right   btc so there you go i'm telling i'm telling you  what i'm what i feel it doesn't mean i'm right   i'm just telling you how i'm seeing it hopefully  at key moments and there it is and this is always   happens this way when do i last time i said this  was like november top i'm not saying this november   top but there's moments i think we had a similar  moment uh if you go back uh if you go back to the   53k top right here if you go back to here we have  some kind of similar price action where it was   kind of an like a minor top like i feel like this  is a minor top um and by the way we could you know   i'll get to the fact that you know bulls are not  certainly not out of it um and i haven't even kind   of mentioned the fact that um really well let me  just get this out of the way before i continue on   um you have that level to be established at  46k 45k you have the breakout and rejected   at the ma200 um you know what why would i skip  forward i'm gonna get right to it so all right   the people get excited near top of the channel i'm  suggesting to you that we're potentially topping   and i'm thinking maybe it's a failed breakout  right you're always thinking how can the market   screw the most people you bounce above the  ascending triangle get people really excited   and you come back below now you have an  up thrust and i've been on watch for this   i talked about this on the the wednesday  night a bitcoin live video if you look at   kind of the analog of what all coins did last may  june july really june july where they established   highs the highs of their mean reversion bounces  and then kind of a month later they bounced above   and then failed to hold that hold that level  kind of generating a short signal in reverse   i've been kind of on guard for that so i think  below 45k we're in big trouble i'm gonna get   to that uh in here a moment here we go march  29th all right i'm talking about sentiment   do people get excited near the top or the bottom  of the channel march 29th 10 in the morning march 29th right you know people are  still pretty excited right there right despite all the enthusiasm right it's important  you have to check yourself you have to always   check yourself you know um like that thing  i've said that tweet that quote from my   book um you know when you when you sell when  you're about to send your body a screenshot   of your trade you know like that's when you should  take profit or the one i put out recently where   i said before you congratulate yourself on a  good trade make sure to take profit right like   i mean i i say because i do it all  the time you're like hey look at this   trade i'm up big and then you turn  around and you've like you know   it's already gone down like take profit before  you brag um and that's what what's why that's   important is you have to check your game you have  to check yourself you have to kind of stay on top   of of your your your emotions and and you have  to realize wow wait a minute i'm too enthusiastic   why am i so enthusiastic why am i still so  enthusiastic enthusiastic given given the   price interaction with the ma200 bottom line how  can i still be enthusiastic right um so here we go   all right and then boom 45 6. so here we go  march 28th throwback to 45.6 would be logical   and by the dip and then boom there's the  throwback we threw back and it made sense   we're rejecting it the ma200 right shooting  star tweezer top you know pretty weak follow   through i mean here you're you're thinking  60 70 percent you know reject uh maybe 70 80   reject um and then boom but that's your  by the dip we talked about buying the dip   we initially failed we initially failed and  we can go low we can go low time frame and   i'll get to that in a minute um we've  shown some weakness here recently but   uh we did it we initially rejected drop below  45k so do i have the tweet next here we go   btc flashing april 1st and you know it's not it  was not april fools i i take what i do seriously   i'm not i'm not going to like try to be funny you  know j you know i'm not going to try to be funny   on april first because like what i do  is serious i try to be serious i take   it's almost an oath i take um uh it's that's  me saying i appreciate you and i try to respect   that um that trust we built up together and so  btc flashy major warning signs of a potential   failed breakout you always pay attention you  always pay attention you always pay attention   to when you have a well-established level  tested tested tested tested if you break out   you fail to hold it that's such a strong  signal if you could and then by the way   my fourth book book project is a um poker  and trading crossover book and some of the   some elements of that have to do with like  selecting tiers of trading entries and this   would be like a tier one or this would be like  plain pocket aces right on this type of a setup   where you have that well-established level where  you fail when you break out you fail to hold it   and really i mean below 45k we're in serious  trouble i mean that's that's the bottom line from   everything i know and have studied right um and  so i talked about that uh with the throwback and   you want to hold in the throwback it doesn't mean  you're going to right initial it initially failed   um hasn't completely failed yet but  there's there's some weakness signs here   but there's weak weak weakening signs here and  i've talked about them but there's other signs too   eth ptc i talked about that that's important  btc eth alt so this is all kind of in the same   basket okay um i've never seen this guy be  bullish i mean i don't know brother i've   been around a long time i mean if go find when  bitcoin's been bullish and see what my analysis is   um go check it out you know i mean i  didn't nail the exact bottom last year   i was a little late like 33k 33 or 35k i kind  of confirmed um so i you know i lost you know i   wasn't right at 30k but you know i i'm bullish  with bitcoin's bullets like the weatherman   doesn't make the weather that's who i am uh it's  about you not me right you got to think about that   that's your bias um so flashing major warning  sign potential a breakout that's incredibly   important you see that illustrated in this photo  right i i try to you know sometimes i'll do the   arrows i'll do the picture and you can see that  you can see how this level is well established   with time interval you see how the support  became resistance became resistance the breakout   the rejection in here right at the time of this  tweet 449 were flashing major warning signs   um absolutely i'm just look i've been wrecked  so many times i i don't want others to get you   know i'm trying to just share with you what little  i've learned i still have no idea what i'm doing   um but i'm having fun i'll share i'll share with  you what little what little i've learned all   right hopefully that helps uh i appreciate that  compliment um at this time we were threatening   the breakdown and i talked about this on bcl like  you you lose this level you're in big trouble um   we're still kind of fighting right now we've  got some low time frame weakness i want to get   to that though on my next tweets so the next tweet  i want to talk about btc 1h interesting spot right   i saw some people um it was funny some people  replied uh in the in the tweet they said uh   hey oh chad's with a diagonal line right you  know because they never see me use them i'll   use them but i don't use them the way you're  using them i don't use them for entry or exit   like there's no line it's a trend i'm just  i'm just i'll draw it to identify a trend   and i see a descending i see a structure of a  descending supply right a structure of descending   resistance it's not exactly here it's a filter  around the line there's no line there's only a   trend there is no line that's that's the trick  with diagonal lines is that there is no line   there's actually just a trend and so there's a  trend and this is an interesting spot because   it had just recaptured this clear underside level  right the uh the support had been right at 46k   47k and price had broken down so you're  watching to see if it's going to put in an   up thrust or a false bull break  you're watching for the price   to trap people you're watching for the for  a setup where the most people get screwed   and you kind of and just usually works  out that way and you're thinking okay   you know break this level trap you know trap bunch  of people on that 47k break and then reject here   on that on that level and come back below i mean  that's a great short if you bounce here above 47k   rejecting the diagonal and come back below 47k  that's like a nine out of 10 short i mean without   a doubt um especially below this high uh here and  this is a one hour chart if you're below this high   i mean it's like that's like a nine and a half  out of ten short um and so that was at 47k so it   was an interesting spot right um and then what  i talked about here is btc 1h has flipped ema8   from support into resistance watch that for  momentum clues and here i'm pointing out how   when the price had been accelerating um the price  had regained that ama the exponential moving   average aloha from hawaii nice to see you um ian  oh and the price had regained that exponential   moving average it had used it as support  but here we're seeing the price rolling over   and you see this all the time on on really any  time frame it's a great way to track the trend   um and so what are we doing now we'll just  kind of look into it now what has happened   since that tweet right one hour  ema eight i mean what are we doing   what are we doing people you wanna ask me why i  use the ema eight i don't use ema eight the price   uses it i just report on it right i'm just the  weather man i'm not out here creating the price   action um so that's kind of the gist of it right  we're in danger of a failed breakout below 45k um low 45k yeah below 45k risk off i mean that's  it there's just no question there's   there can be no question um just like narratives right yeah there's a lot of  the what the t-wop and i had to look up what t-wap   means um and i said maybe i still don't understand  it but i don't need to right i just i just follow   the price i feel like if you're gonna buy  because you think someone else is buying   you're going to get in trouble you need to remove  all of that from your system your system needs to   just be based on the price interaction  with the key levels and momentum right   if we're below 45k you need to be out of the  market of bitcoin um but you might see a great   altcoin run because all coins have been doing  great right and that's been a warning sign like   xvg was pumping i saw zil q had like a ridiculous  bounce um a bunch of stuff had ridiculous bounces   uh you know look at that eth btc you can't be you  can't be bullish on bitcoin given what this is   doing in my opinion the way i see the market right  so that's just uh i mean that's just kind of what   i wanted to do look i've been by the way you know  i next it could be 53k the next time i do a video   update like in a week or two right because i don't  do them that that often but um this is what i see   right now right uh things can change right  and and and i will change with new data but   like this is where we're at now you can't have  a level like this which is so well established   you can't break it and then fail to hold  it like that's a signal you can't ignore   all right um so i'll pay attention to that  someone says what about alts look you need   to be playing mark you need to be playing  relative strength participants luna right um   near has been strong right play stuff that's above  the ma200 and rising and doing stuff like this   breaking lower highs uh don't play your garbage  coins if it's a downtrend it's probably going to   continue to be a downtrend and you're just going  to hate yourself for holding it don't let these   trades own you that's that's like the real alpha  that's the secret don't let these trades own you   like why why let some random coin own you your  time is too valuable your sleep is too valuable   don't let these trades own you that's my advice  um we got to stay above 45k you know for we're   above 45k um you know we have a good shot because  all you have to do really is clear ma200 okay   all you really have to do is clear ma200 you clear  ma200 i feel like 58k is is gonna be you know 80   90 percent uh that kind of measured move from the  triangle kind of that last major cluster um after   the breakdown kind of that initial you know the  initial ema 34 rejection that i've talked about uh   we had that kind of um four hour failed head and  shoulders i've done like three videos on that so   you guys you guys and gals can go check that out  but listen that's where we're at um i'm on twitter   i'm at big chads academic observations about price  trading psychology risk management i appreciate um   appreciate your your follow in your interactions  i'm on twitter and i'm on youtube at sheds trading   if you're new to technical analysis and you're  really confused about what i'm talking about   watch the tutorials those will help you out watch  the long form interview series i have great guests   i really get into kind of all sorts of great stuff  with them brilliant minds um i am the author of   trading wisdom proud to be the author of trading  wisdom 50 lessons every trader should know   feedback's been unbelievable the book is on amazon  uh kindle four formats kindle audio uh audiobook   hardcover paperback if you don't want to buy  the book i get it right i have a free version   on my youtube channel go to the playlist 13 of  50 lessons i will eventually have the whole book   for you for free so uh please do check that out  and if you're serious about learning how to trade   you want to learn technical analysis bitcoin live  i mean i'm totally i i'm behind behind it 100 best   in class educational platform for crypto i've been  doing twice a week long form market updates for   almost four years i i will not miss an update even  if i'm on vacation something i'm really proud of   unbelievable team you get access to everyone's  content not just mine so please consider checking   that out um you know more than anything i'm just  happy to be here i'm happy that you took some   time to listen to me uh we're all connecting from  all all different parts of the world you know but   we have so much in common there's you know it's  easy to think that the people we see in the   street or the people we're talking to online are  different than us we really have so much in common   and so i want to thank you for that for our common  humanity um we all mostly want the same things   and i'm just happy to be here and um more than  anything i wish you all well um let's get this   finished off with a little bit of party a little  bit of a party this is church of eight wheels and uh that's the way to  do it folks i wish you well foreign

2022-04-04 16:29

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