$BTC #Bitcoin Long Form Interview - Scott Melker (Wolf of all streets)

$BTC #Bitcoin Long Form Interview - Scott Melker (Wolf of all streets)

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what is up what is up what is up folks thank you  so much for coming today thank you for taking   a little bit of time out of your schedule i am  big chad's today is saturday february 5th 2022.   just give me a quick shout out in the chat  room and please confirm if you can hear me   you know if the audio is is okay and we'll get  this party started folks hi from austria what's   going on greetings from turkey what's going on  everybody let's see let's see chad hey good to   see you thank you so much good evening amar great  hi from jordan that's wonderful hello from london   all that stuff folks you can hear me loud and  clear that's wonderful hey from malta and we got   iran malta this is this is a worldwide  thing this is a worldwide phenomenon   phenomenon i can't even spell that maybe i can  say it uh it's a lot of fun so i have a wonderful   guest today his name is uh scott melker wolfe of  all streets uh i've done lots of stuff with you   know dumb work with him before on his channel  and my channel and other people's channels   um this is part of the long-form interview series  let's get this going on real quick i'm on twitter   i'm at big chad's um you can find our guest today  scott melker at scottmelker on twitter um he just   took a lot of really good information we'll get  into that he's got a newsletter he's got all   sorts of really great series right so i've done uh  this is number four i've done a three before this   and really i want to hear what the guests have to  say you know i really try to get the best minds   uh in this space and so that's kind of what that's  all about if you're new to ta definitely check out   the tutorials a lot of my questions that i get  on twitter a lot of questions i get on twitter   about how to set up my chart can be  answered by watching those tutorials   and just as a quick reminder um you know i'm  a founding analyst at bitcoin live the best in   class educational platform for for crypto so um  if you're serious about learning and uh that's   where i would recommend that you go to kind  of get started so what's the deal i'm gonna do   like two minutes i'm gonna do about two minutes on  bitcoin and then we're gonna talk to our guests so   you know for me i kind of saw the  top coming we've talked about that   in the past uh with the etf run up and then kind  of the the nut top really that litecoin bounce   and you know since then and that's all  up here and that's all in my public work   on twitter and on youtube and that's up here  and since then we've been doing the mean   reversion the relief rally kind of deal right and  it's always a question of when does a relief rally   um potentially turn into a trend reversion or  kind of a resumption rather of the uptrend here   um you know we're watching for things we're always  watching for signs of a weakening force and for me   it's been this yellow line the ema 34. you know  bulls have been unable to close above the ema 34   which is rejected here in november at the height  of that bounce rejected here in december at the   height of that relief rally rejected just short  of it a little while ago uh about you know a   few weeks ago and then right here we closed  above it that's a sign of weakening bear force   um so that's that's important that suggests that  that we may be at the point where we're at least   going sideways you go downtrend you have to go  sideways before you can go back up maybe we're   doing that and really importantly is we've kind of  gotten back up above 40k that's a key pivot level   so if you wanted to go long we had a very nice and  clean easy entry here uh when we broke above 40k   what we do next anybody knows we're still we're  still consolidating kind of for me at both these   just maybe an inverted head and shoulders your  break um you know your breakout would be there   and your invalidation would be somewhere like in  that level so anyway we can we can get into that   uh you know another time let's get my man up  uh my man scott melker here i see him nodding   what up what's god what's up hold on how are  you i got a weird shadow in my face i can   see that but we're gonna have to deal with it  does it sound all right i look a little jerky   on the camera for something oh it's good it's  good do you want uh i think we're good to go   yeah let's do it it's um so anyway  how are you doing man how's life uh   florida right how's life down there for you it's  good man this is a rare uh saturday where i took   an hour but wife was like i'll watch the kids if  you're gonna talk to chad's it's cool oh that's so   nice man yeah i do appreciate it she's taking over  duty i'm always uh always excited to have a chance   to talk to you man definitely so um let's uh you  know i want to have you kind of walk through your   charts too you know maybe not this moment but  kind of get that ready just so we can fire it in   um why don't you start out as always just kind  of tell you know most people know who you are but   if they don't uh maybe they're just a big chat  super fan that's not your name man that's scott   melker that's not my name it's a big chat super  fan that's right all right all right so tell us   tell us folks a little bit about you or we can  find out about your work um sure i mean you can   find everything uh linked from my twitter you  know at scott elker or the wolf of allstreets.io  

but uh you know i for for a good 20 25 years i  was a casual trader basically uh doing it was   something that i did on the side i literally  bought my first stop when i was 13 years old   disney and caterpillar both good both good trades  since i'm still holding um and uh and you know was   superficially sort of interested throughout  the years when i was in school i went to a   school that was very heavy uh for finance the  university of pennsylvania and so it was hard   not to at least catch the trading and finance bug  a bit but i you know i was a professional dj and   music producer for about 20 years i decided not  to use that ivy league education at all basically   um much to the dismay of my parents i'm sure but  uh and you know once i really got more serious   about it in the mid 2000s teens and found crypto  that that was it you know so i spent the last five   or six years basically doing it full-time a few  years before that i had already kind of started   and from there you know i had this like music  following on twitter and i alienated them   immediately and started talking about this crazy  magic internet money um and then so i went from   like it was funny i literally like cut my fan  base in half on twitter you see this big number   now but it was like 40 000 immediately to 20  000 when i stopped talking about music and then   for whatever reason sort of built from there you  know i felt like twitter was too short for them   for me so i started a free newsletter i felt  like that wasn't enough so i started a podcast   you know felt like that wasn't enough so i started  live streaming every day and it just has been this   sort of like domino effect effective non-stop  crypto all the time so has um you know music   still obviously an important part of your life  i would think and um have you found that crypto   has taken away from it or it's just you it's kind  of added on to it because the music's still there   you know how does it take away taking away from  it take it away from it man like i i i don't know   i'm the kind of person it's it's funny you know  i have a friend micah johnson who's an nft artist   and he used to play uh professional baseball you  know he has aku is his sort of nft thing and we we   always joke about this because he since the day he  retired playing baseball he says he's never picked   up a glove like he spent his entire life playing  baseball professional baseball player retired and   has never picked up a glove i have not touched my  turntables right back there in three and a half   years i one time i picked him up and uh dj'd my  my uh mother-in-law's 70th birthday party which   is something i wouldn't have ever done when i was  an actual dj anyways and that's literally it so   wow i i don't know i'm the kind of person who  once i go deep down a rabbit hole i'm pretty far   and that's i get uh all consumed i guess uh but  i still listen to music all day every day i just   haven't whatever but i am in the process because  i recognize this of building a new music studio   uh which is happening and we'll be done about  four months um like a full-on build and so i do   intend to sort of transition back into it at least  for my uh mental health you know i think that's   really exciting um you know you you've i see how  you approach things and you take them seriously   you've become really good at this so i can only  assume you were also quite adept you know and when   you have a skill that you polish for a number  of years then you kind of put it on the shelf   it's a little bit weird right so i think that's  great i'm excited you're able to um you know dive   back into that and i know i see from your feed  your kids are into music i see you they play   piano and all that good stuff is that right i mean  we just kind of dick around on everything you know   how it is like the stuff is around so if kids  see it they're gonna mess around on it so both   of them like to beat on the piano and every once  in a while will turn on like ableton and they'll   push some buttons and and whatever so yeah but uh  they're just getting to an age now i think where   we can start to actually push a little you know  harder and see what they're more interested in   there's this i covered obviously put a huge damper  on a lot of it during you know the years when they   would have kind of found passions and everything  just shut down but uh that's obviously sort of   slowing so it's getting better there's this  app called like simply piano on the ipad and   you know i've been playing that with my daughter  and you know i'm learning chords and i'm like man   this is hard you know and um i can imagine you'd  have to practice that stuff every day many hours   and uh so but it's fun just like this just like  this is this yeah let's get this going scotty   let's uh i'm gonna bring you up i'd love for you  to set the table for us how we got here maybe   over the last two months and um what you think is  going on i'll drop you right up there and uh let's   see what you got sure so uh i'll be the first to  say that like many people i am uh guilty of the   unforgivable crime of being too bullish near the  top um you know i definitely was looking at 69k   thinking we were going to get one of those  monster jesus candles like straight to 100   because things looked so crazy and there  were reasonable voices like you who are   saying that things like that might not happen  you know um and i think it's important also to   very distinctly separate the two lenses through  which i view everything in finance in markets   right and that's the investor lens and the  trader lens right so through the investing lens   don't care at all right i missed it as a trader  that's true but uh from the investing length it   doesn't matter to me at all in fact peter brandt  once came on my show and he said something really   wise he said i said to my i say to my kids buy the  best company stock and hope and pray that it drops   50 so you can buy some more hmm right so so if  you look at this through a investing lens i think   you see a great opportunity with you know 10 years  away in mind and not 10 days away in mind right so   it doesn't bother me that we've seen this price  and i like to look back you know when i see it   and i miss right you obviously want to look back  and see see what you missed but this time i think   is less dramatic than what we saw in may and  it's it's amazing how fast people forget what   happened only months ago the bullishness just like  erases all of the bad feelings it's like having an   ex-girlfriend who you really hate but then like  a year later you start to remember the one good   thing that was nice about her then you get back  with her and you realize that you actually hated   her the entire time kind of like that you know and  so we went from 60 plus to 30 in 10 days last may   right 10 days yeah 10 days this was a long  sustained and we didn't go quite as deep right   and in fact we're making a higher low right  now potentially if you look at it that way   right yeah um and at that time we had legitimate  they they felt legitimate not to me but to many   people legitimate concerns at the time right you  had elon musk whatever i think that's laughable   but china ban and china mining going offline  was a legitimate threat to the entire   like core of bitcoin right like hash rate  dropping 50 percent is the network going to   accommodate at that what does it mean when most of  the volume goes offline outside of hash rate right   talking about like is if if you're gonna drop  and china can't buy where's our demand right   right so like very legitimate concerns and  then of course everyone jumping on the energy   battle right we all knew that that was sort of  hyperbolic but it seemed very real at the time   people bitcoin uses more energy than the country  of argentina et cetera et cetera right so we had   like this like four-pronged flood attack that made  for sort of a reasonable fundamental underpinning   what do we have this time the fed is that it and  and and the only thing that we have against us   right now is maybe a temporary correlation  with other markets that people think are   weak which is all underpinned by the fed and money  printing and when you zoom out and think about the   fundamental purpose of bitcoin crypto in general  but of bitcoin it's to fade that [ __ ] anyways   right right so i just think that this is like  and i said this and i was saying this at the dead   bottom i'm not saying it is the bottom but for now  it's the bottom but if anyone who was following me   a week ago when this was bottoming i was literally  out over my skis saying that i was buying   everything in sight and that the fact that when i  would post something even remotely bullish people   would say we have to go down 100 you're insane yes  can not be the bottom means there's a very like if   you can't even imagine that the idea that it's a  bottom yes okay yes like you're you're so far gone   and your emotional bias right so i just think  that we got overextended on the sell-off   right so maybe this is just a bounce maybe like i  would say that once again we're at a fundamentally   strong resistance and you're going to see people  getting extremely bullish right what's that   resistance scott what's that resistance 42 42.  i mean look let me find a i could just draw it   on this chart i'm sure but like but we've been  at 42 with huge variation above or below for   13 months yeah yeah i mean it's a big zone it's  a big we topped we topped there like january this   week of january 4th in 2021 yeah and that's  where we are sitting right now low february   right and i mean if you like you could take every  line off this chart and just look at 42 and that's   been the support and the resistance effectively  that zone i don't talk in finite numbers right   but that zone has been the top and bottom of  every move in my opinion thus far so of course   we're going to get super bullish just like we did  right up here when price was topping at 53 and i   literally was like sending tweets aggressively  making fun of anyone who was getting super bullish   at resistance now i think actually the odds are  we pushed through this time yeah interesting   interesting and to say every single time like that  we're gonna die at resistance well then price can   never go up right there has to be a point where  people get bullish at resistance and mark it by   through that resistance the only way it can happen  yeah right but my belief is that unless you truly   fear the fed which is a dog and pony show of  epic proportions that is completely fake and   contrived anyways so screw that if you really  believe that they're not going to stop money   printing then i've got a apartment to sell you  on the moon right and they're not they may slow   it slightly for a little while and then resume  right before the election because if they stop   money printing right now everybody who's in office  loses their job and that's not how this works   um and so if you believe that you know  that we are going to come out of this then   you should think that there's a good chance that  we have bottoms right i've never i'm you have   more balls than me calling tops and bottoms oh  please i just call areas you know but like 32 000   from 69 yeah very very reasonable  normal bit retrace for bitcoin   but how do we know so i mean that's great and  by the way great commentary uh and i have all   these follow-up questions but how do we know  that's you know how do we know we don't need 80   scott right isn't that what everyone  knows we do 80 how do we know you know   we know right we have to know to know we could  listen i talked to uh sven henrich the other   day you know northman trader i don't know if  he's yeah guys it's [ __ ] amazing yeah and   he's you know just became a bitcoiner and he's  like i'm starting to nibble now but he's like   how much will people nibble if we're at seven  thousand and it's done in ninety percent drop   sixty died i was like yeah oh my god please listen  anything's possible and i'm not saying we don't   need a bigger retrace i'm just saying that people  are funny right you got a chart and so you i i   only use a chart as a trader right so and i would  say that i trade with 15 to 20 of my capital so   15 to 20 of my opinion is based on the chart right  the other 75 80 85 of my opinion is based on sort   of just common sense and my funder fundamental  like rational opinion it's not on chain metrics or   earnings it's literally common sense right common  sense to me says uh we just saw 25 billion dollars   in vc flow into crypto last year more than the  three combined years before we've already almost   seen that much in february of this year there  is insane amount of money flowing into space   and the worse [ __ ] gets globally even if bitcoin  retraces with it at first it will likely detach if   we're bitcoin believers it will likely detach and  become more bullish the other thing people forget   and love to somehow just ignore that people love  to say you know oh everything crashed march 2020   there was this crazy correlation well first of all  bitcoin crashed march 12th and the stock market   crashed march 23rd so you'd have to believe that  bitcoin leads the stock market so let's okay let's   stop right it's a two less than a trillion dollar  market cap at the time it was way less i mean it   was like a less than a quarter of a trillion at  that time right price was trading at six thousand   dollars and what it and and people love to say oh  they're correlated and the stock market best run   ever doubled bitcoin went up 17 times from there  right went from 38 to 69 right so if you're going   to talk about them both being risked off at the  same time what happens when the world inevitably   goes risk on bitcoin crypto becomes the best trade  on the planet right and it it and it exceeds what   you can get in other markets by many multiples  so if it goes down to 15 and you're buying it   40 but the end game of that is 150 you shouldn't  care at all right you literally shouldn't care at   all yes you can get a better entry and listen  you and i have discussed this right like you   you're of the mind like you know michael saylor  microstrategy should be looking for better entries   and that 15 20 of my mind agrees but yeah if he  doesn't have that mind at all and he's 100 percent   investor his goal is going to be this shit's going  up i'm buying as much as i can whenever i have   the cash right and so he's is not a trader he's  an investor and i think that goes back to that   sort of two lens uh view but let me ask you about  80 well so but is that a is there a fine line   between a trader and investor or is it you know  is it a gradient um i don't think it's fine   it gets i think they're actually leaps and  bounds apart and i'll tell you why okay because   the people historically are parents boomers the  generations before them the people who have made   generational wealth in markets historically have  probably never heard of technical analysis or   probably do not even know that charts exist  they've simply taken whatever money they had   that they weren't gonna take back out to  pay for something put it into any market   and let inflation carry them to the promised land  right invest in hard assets don't touch that money   give it enough time to grow that doesn't work  very well with the trader get rich quick mentality   but i think that most people and michael saylor's  in his 50s right and i think you know a lot of   people who have been business really just want to  get their money into hard assets and not touch it   right it's the stress thing right you want to  you want to put money somewhere you don't have to   babysit right yeah exactly and listen the the only  invest money you have to lose [ __ ] is like the   dumbest most misleading and almost like insulting  comment that we all make because nobody can afford   to lose all their money right but but there's some  truth in the fact that i i would prefer to say   only invest money that you can afford not to touch  for a while right i think is almost better is   let's dive into that because that's interesting  to me um is it also maybe an amount that you can   hopefully emotionally detach from right because  that's a lot of what it comes down to ideally   it's an amount maybe that you can't afford to  lose but then maybe you won't sweat and then   maybe you can play it properly i think yeah i  think overexposure is probably the number one   reason that people make bad emotional decisions  right when when you see like the analysts that   are staring at one hour charts and freaking  out about the like macro implications of a   small move that happened in an hour you know that  they're overexposed or over analyzing right right   and listen everybody has their own time frame  so if you're trading an hourly chart you should   be panicking about what might happen in the  next 12 hours but you can't extrapolate that to   have meaning for the next 12 years right um and so  i think that it's just it comes with the territory   you and i both love poker as well right i know  oh yeah i also talked about this so like you know   doyle brunson super system one of the famous  things he talks about is not talking about you're   not thinking about your chips as  money but thinking of them as units   that's a big one yes so mentally detaching  from the amount of money that you're betting   so that you can make the proper decision  based on the pot odds of what you're doing   and based on the opponent that you're  playing right and so you can't do that   if um your rent is on the line that's a great  point that's such an important point that people   ignore and you're right like if you if you need  your money to pay bills i mean pull it out and   pay the bills you can't trade with that stuff and  um you know there's times when you should average   down even though it's you know a dicey proposition  but there's times when you should buy that really   deep fear you know like if if bitcoin who knows  what happens tomorrow but if it hits that weekly   you know ma200 you know like in the next week  you have to buy that even it doesn't matter how   bad it looks at the time like you you got to be  buying there uh would you kind of agree with that   is that 20 like uh yeah that's 200 weekly 200 200  sorry it's like 20 000 right like the weekly 200   it's probably around right here yeah the weekly 20  yeah oh my god you buy that so and like over time   yeah that's also that's also like if you get that  weekly 200 right there that is the untested 2017   highs um so right so there's never tested ever  never tested there's people who are watching   this video who want to know if we should they're  like hey chad's chad's and melcher should be by   here you know because they want to be long  right and because they feel like they missed   it but if it drops to 20k they'll be scared but  that's when they should be jamming it you know   it's oh come on i'm buying it 53 it's 53 i  can't buy it's going to 42. it's 42. i can't   buy this it's got to go to 28 if it misses 28 it's  going to 20 you never buy right and you know when   they buy 70 000. that's 70 000. so how do you  deal with that it breaks resistance i just i i   i plug my nose and i buy and you guys have  seen it and i put it out there publicly   and i take and i take it on the chin for  it every single time for being an idiot   i i bought bitcoin at 53. yeah because that was  support i bought bitcoin at 42. yeah you know like  

and so it broke those supports oh well it'll go  back up right but i have the patience and i'm only   doing it with the amount of money that it doesn't  matter you know that's huddle if you were trading   though at 42 you would your stop-loss would have  been like whatever like 41 or 40. so yeah it would   be like would have been like 41-41-4 or something  3-1-4 exactly but but i was trading so like uh   i i've taken four leveraged trades uh  since 69 000. okay in a massive downtrend   i'm not saying that this is smart but i  don't like shorting bitcoin just something i   generally don't want to do and so they've all  been longs and i had one small loss and one   you know slight win and two massive  wins right because both of them were   at the point where we were at support it hit  oversold or something with bullish divergence   yeah i got the immediate bounce that i was looking  for which is the way i trade i moved my stops   way into profit and so like when it dropped i  made my money and i was i was wrong right so   you don't need to be wrong or right you need to be  profitable yeah right so yes and people are like   and then so people see oh my god he longed and  then they come back a week later and they see it's   lower and lower and like you're an idiot i made  like six months i know uh my life on that one   trade so am i an idiot okay no so as a trader it's  all about how you play it regardless of if you   catch it right or not and as an investor okay well  yeah i'm holding the bag on bitcoin that i bought   at 53 000 but my cost basis on bitcoin is  under 10 000. so do you think i'm worried no   right so how aggressively on your trades  are you moving that stop loss into profit   um you know what i mean generally that's a tough  question but generally so i usually i usually like   it's funny i don't practice what i preach right  so i preach to people that you should have a   exact plan when you enter a trade right right of  course right and i say you know i do believe you   should have your stop-loss 100 defined right oh  yeah of course because you can't define your risk   and you can't take a position size unless you know  where you're wrong right so but then if i know if   it's an aggressive downtrend and i'm catching  knives which is what i'm doing i'm aware that   i'm catching knives right right so like the odds  are i did not catch the bottom of a macro move   that's taking months right so rationally  i'm aware of that so the minute like i get   uh i hit the first resistance i'm taking some  off the table and then generally moving my stop   into profit so it's a taking profit and a moving  stops into profit sort of situation um and so   uh yeah and so it becomes a really mixed bag  on the way that i sell um you know because   the dependent like my plan is dependent on  what happens after i enter in those cases   right i mean if it if it only balances a little  bit and then kind of hang sideways no i'm not   going to move my stops into profit i'm going to  sit there with my original plan because maybe it's   going to come right back down to my entry and then  rock it and i'm going to get stopped out i'll tell   you for now i was in long from almost the bottom  here 30 34 3 or something when we confirmed that   last major bullish divergence oversold down there  yeah so it bounced up i don't know 38 something   like that i sold it i sold a nice portion of  it and i moved my stops up to just under 37.   right and then i could stop it out it went down  to 35 eight right 35 7. i had the same trade i   had the same trade man i had similar yeah i could  have theoretically still been long right now from   the bottom right leverage right yeah and so but i  can't really beat myself up forever that because   yeah just as easily it could have gone 35 8 34  33 31 and then i would have erased any of the   profit i took loss right so i don't know  i i definitely if i'm trading it's about   minimizing the loss and taking what's on the table  in front of me and not starting to get greedy i   really try not to do that so yeah maybe maybe  i missed the generational bottom and was long   and i'm going to be feeling like [ __ ] when it's  at 100. but i'll also be paying if it gets to 100  

from there the amount of fees i would have paid to  be long during that time and all the consolidation   we'll see would have been worth it anyways right i  mean for most of that time i was paying to be long   so it becomes a bit a bit annoying i think that's  great advice and good kind of risk management   um what do you think about altair scott i mean i  mean uh you know how do we approach it you know   the market's been i think it's been a really  tough market for alts yeah you know i've been   saying it for months yeah i i've had a pretty  strong opinion on it for months um which is that   okay i like to play the probability so like that's  hard when you're tweeting or telling people things   because they might read just one thing and think  that that's your overall opinion you need to take   everyone's opinion in the context of the way they  think alts could do exceptionally well but i would   say that probabilistically statistically the odds  are that they will not do relatively well compared   to bitcoin or at least i was saying that on the  way down because these are the so if you right   we know how it goes right bitcoin dominance your  worst case scenario is bitcoin dominance dropping   and everything's dropping bitcoin dominance  rising while the price of bitcoin drops oh   bitcoin is dominating or but the right but the  peg is dropping and your alts you know bitcoin   goes down 10 you're all dropped 30 right that's  we've seen a lot of that yeah then there's when   bitcoin dominance is you have you know all the  combinations right i don't need to walk through   them but but the gist being that if bitcoin rips  up from here or had ripped up from the bottom   which it kind of did that's generally people fomo  into bitcoin bitcoin dominance rises your alts do   okay against usd but secretly are getting  absolutely raped against bitcoin and you're   just afraid to flip flip over and see the bitcoin  balance your portfolio right so you're better off   in bitcoin than alts why do more work than you  need if bitcoin absolutely drops and dumps you   see the same situation people sell their alts  to get out of them and they perform even worse   and generally bitcoin sideways is good for alts  but the caveat is you want sideways consolidation   after you're going up yeah sideways at the bottom  where people think it's going to dump so that   people get confused like bitcoin sideways it's  chopping sideways but when there's fear in the   market people are not rushing to buy the riskier  asset right right right and so i think that the   the scenario for alts to outperform bitcoin  and that's all i care about i don't care about   doing well i care about them doing better  than bitcoin and by the way that makes it   harder than trading any other market you trade  stocks against dollars and you're fine you're   not also trying to outperform amazon right right  and so and so it makes it very difficult there's   a very rare situation so in general i think that  if bitcoin is volatile you want to be careful   and just i'm not saying like sell all your alts  off i'm just saying like if you're trying to   trade them it's going to be really hard in fact i  mean i very very publicly bought a lot of solana   recently while they were getting flooded  to death i love that thank you yeah   please tell me how it's going to zero please yeah  um and uh you know but i started at 116 oops okay   bro broke right through but i more than doubled  down at 82 so my cost basis is sub 100 and it's   back at like 1 15 today it took me all of a week  it took but took all of a week for people who were   calling me a [ __ ] sure right so um but that's  but i want to own solana for a long time like i've   i i want to own layer ones because i don't know  which one is going to win so i want some exposure   to all of them because i think that something  will win that's an investment strategy right   so i didn't put a stop loss on that i started a  position knowing i was willing to average down   that's interesting those are some concepts there  um like price drops as a result of news or fud   are often great opportunities and i think  you kind of you um sense to that so i think   that's a good point and you also kind of for the  viewers you demonstrated scaling into a position   right you're never going to be able to nail that  exact bottom so you decided to break up your   entry into three or four or five pieces and you  were able to get an even better position now uh   with it turned around are you not to betray too  much but are you in profit or are you still um   you know is your cost basis where it was or  have you moved it up you know your stop-loss   no i'm not i i have no intention of selling solana  anytime for the next few years it was one of the   and admittedly there's there's two assets in the  last like year or two that i felt like i sort of   missed okay one of them was solana it was one  of those things where it like kept going higher   and i was sort of like casually waiting to see  a dip and it just never happened and it kept   going and it just never stopped right and so  i missed it i just didn't own any solana so i   when it was at 260 i was like there's going to  be a massive retrace here i'm going to start   eventually and i waited till 116 from the top  at 260. so yeah it dipped to what it'd go to   80 you know right here but i but these were my  two targets i've had these lines on my charts   i've shared them a million times and at 80 bucks  we were massively oversold with bullish divergence   on the yeah right so yeah thank you that you we  all know that i love that so like my cost basis   is just under 100 because i bought more at 82 than  116. so right yeah and this can drop more and i i   have bids at 58. right so listen but if i had been  trading this and i had bought this which is what   i did on the daily and it rasted right through i  would have stopped out that day yep big time 109. yeah i mean that's an interesting chart um  it could bounce and it's one of those where   you say hey that was kind of an obvious bottom um  but it clearly has rallied you know right to the   underside there of that you know that level and  to the descending you know resistance as well so   um it's good you have a plan you know  you're not saying hey it's the bottom and   and you know because if it goes lower you won't  be shocked and then you'll be able to play it   properly i think that's good in fact it like  i kind of want it to go lower so i can fill an   entire position because right now it's  not the full position that i intended to   what peter said you're trying  to follow the brand device right   yeah but so but that's that's the beauty of  even with trading you know depending on your   risk appetite and stuff the beauty with scaling  in and out of things is every single time like   okay you buy a little bit and then it skyrockets  and you miss the rest of your bids but at least   you've got some skin in the game you caught some  you can feel pretty good if you're selling and   you sell it resistance and it breaks through and  it goes to the next one sell a little more each   time you sell you're reducing the stress of all of  your future decisions and your and every time you   have less money on the table the easier it is to  hold it longer and hit those upper targets i think   the biggest problem for people and nobody wants to  admit this is that everybody like compares their   performance to the best case scenario as if they  would as if they would have been perfect right   yeah so like they don't want to scale out that's  where you get the greed thing right you're like   well it's resistance but it's going to go higher  so why would i sell some here but then right if   it doesn't right you may be a genius you may not  but like i said it reduces the stress but then   say you scale out all the way to the top  then you go god damn i could have like sold   everything right at the top i hate it i hated  lost so much money that's right right like the   trade of your life and your your like life view  is that you've like lost some opportunity cost   right and it's just not the case and so it's the  same i love to like do this thought exercise with   people and say so okay let's say that you  like you know you started with one dollar   and you made a hundred thousand dollars in crypto  amazing right and so that hundred thousand dollars   goes up to a million okay so let's say  january 1st 2021 you had 100 thousand dollars   january 1st 2022 you had a million dollars right  you did another 10x your portfolio gets destroyed   like mine in the last two months yeah right and  now you have four hundred thousand dollars did   you make money or did you lose it and inevitably  people go i lost six hundred thousand dollars yeah   okay yeah they go i lost six hundred thousand  dollars and that is that and that is based on   the thinking that you would have been perfect and  sold literally everything you had you wouldn't   even have the liquidity let's be honest but you  would have sold everything you had at the dead top   right and so your portfolio like a chart honestly  i think you should be happy with higher lows   isn't that true isn't that a great  point is that's a really a great point   right if you're looking at that yeah yeah so  what um you know we'll wrap things up pretty   quickly it's it's the weekend and you've  been unbelievably gracious with your time   it was like a last minute thing and you're  like hey man no problem i'll come so thank you   um you know you're definitely wealth of knowledge  so if you're you know i'm not in bitcoin i'm not   in crypto but i really want to get into it you  know how should i approach it here should i just   all cost average you'd probably say yeah of course  dca but let's say i want to try to make a trade um   what should i watch out for how will  i know bulls have regained momentum   here in the short term uh what do you think okay  well i mean if they know how to look at a chart   which i probably don't i know you hate descending  uh lines right um and and i don't blame you for   me a descending line is a signal that things  could be reversing but it's not a tradable entry   or exit so that's how i like to view it so  like in this case right if we break this line   i'd be looking for a dip back to 42 as the buy not  the break of that line because we inevitably know   that it breaks that line and then dips all the  way back down and takes you out you get destroyed   right but for me right now listen like like how  for me breaking 53 here on this candle this was   the signal that we were going to go way up from  the macro lower high from the weekly equilibrium   so we broke we broke that lower high right and so  sort of violated bear market structure became bull   market structure yeah well for me look we had you  know i mean we can go back god knows how long it   doesn't even matter but look low high higher low  higher high whatever right so from here we have   this sort of bull market structure right weekly  50 well that's violated when we lose 42 right   because this was a lower low so if we can get back  excuse me 39.6 if you're using wicks right so now   we're above that so that's a really good sign to  me because we're now in violation of this kind   of we had made the higher low and we broke it now  we're above it if we flip 42 here so i think like   if you're new right here you're certainly [  __ ] not trading buying this at 41.6 yeah it's  

tough right unless you have a 100x leverage  with a 42 target and a 7.4 right right but   you're not but you're looking for this like you  know what i mean like yeah this is your entry   in my opinion you know if if if you're not  a breakout trader if you if you caught 39.6   like if you caught 39.6 on the break great right  maybe and honestly maybe so if this does get   rejected by the way then you're still bullish  then i'd be looking for this trade right so is   that a 46k rejection or what i mean i see 46 is  a big level too because that was the support that   you know i have it somewhere but like uh i don't  know if i have that chart open on here but i have   yeah i had one that i posted on twitter earlier  today which has the daily levels and to me it was   like 39 42 yes 45 five yes exactly 52 or 53 and  then i mean if we're above 53 we should be at 100.  

let me get you on the record here ethereum you  see eth ptc and you know what i talk about on   twitter and bitcoin live is the idea that um  you know bitcoin bulls want that chart eth btc   to be going down right because when ethereum's  outperforming bitcoin it's not bitcoin time right   what are your thoughts on that eth btc and  maybe eth real quick and we'll wrap up on that   so i mean eat usd right here kind of looks better  than bitcoin frankly like if you're looking on the   usd chart because this this would sort of be the  equivalent to the level and we're above it already   you know so maybe holding three grand is a big  deal i think you know 29 28 but i think that's a   big deal but maybe then we head to 33 something  now listen eat btc another one you zoom out   ethereum has been smashing bitcoin since  2019 right annihilating it right and so i   i don't think that trend is changing anytime  soon right and if you and if you're trading   the diagonal well that didn't break out until  you know almost a year ago okay now listen but   i'll be honest this is what i had yeah yeah right  right and so i i i expected that we had sort of uh   so yeah listen technical analysis and ain't  always science you know so i had sort of this   yeah i can't get it now then the height of  it yeah yeah and so like obviously you pull   that here and oh yeah right you're on a long  chart you're out you're up but at new highs   that didn't happen but i also said like i saw this  rejection here so i thought we would stop back   here on a retest of that and i was wrong it's gone  deeper so now to me we have sort of this ascending   channel so i don't know okay like in general i  believe that ethereum will outperform bitcoin uh   for a very long time if i was investing i think  that that i think that bitcoin is the better more   important investment i think it has a better  narrative the hedge against inflation i think   that that's the one that will stick but i mean  you know listen if it ain't broke don't try to   fix it and it's been two and a half years of  ethereum outperforming bitcoin and so i think   that you know i think what we'll see is this sort  of rocky road bitcoin if let's say that we're back   in a bull market right i'm not saying that but  let's suppose we're back in the bull market yeah   bitcoin rips this kind of trades sideways or dips  a little more but then when bitcoin consolidates   ethereum's next move is bigger than bitcoin's move  was yeah right right so when bitcoin consolidates   ethereum outperforms its bull runs more than  bitcoins relative to bitcoin's bull right so you   kind of they both do well but this one maybe  does 10 better you know something like that   consistently that's sort of how i see it i think  there's a lot of catalysts for ethereum you know   scott if you're dca and why aren't you and maybe  you are but why don't you and i think about this   for myself you know i most i mostly just just  huddled bitcoin and ethereum and i wonder if i   should be doing more ethereum than bitcoin because  i'm looking at a chart like you're showing me   that shows that out performance over time why  are you not accumulating more ethereum okay   i i literally so so in very small amounts  i literally buy ethereum every single day   okay so i i manually like weekly buy small amounts  of bitcoin and i go in huge on dips right when i   have dry powder i i try to like time bitcoin a  little more yeah ethereum i use a platform called   roundly x which like is if you know acorns  like i've heard of acorns which takes rounds   or whatever yeah rounds up so you buy 90 cents  of something and then it rounds up to a dollar   and buys 10 stock right 10 cents of stock so  i use round the x with a 10x multiplier so it   rounds up everything and then multiplies it by 10  in conjunction with voyager so every time it hits   like 10 20 50 bucks so like i'm buying like 40 50  bucks of ethereum a day just like massively in the   background okay and then earning interest on it  on voyager where it automatically buys it oh my   god that's outperformed almost anything i've been  doing it for years what are we talking about here   it's done really i'm have to look into that huh so  you want to hold your eth on voyager and you get   like six five or six percent interest on your  ethereum which is it's like it it's equivalent   or outperformed staking in the eve 2.0 contract  and it's liquid right you can you can get it out   anytime soon it's like a verizon yield it's like  the same yield as verizon but it actually goes up   and i'm starting to feel and now i'm starting to  feel like i also need to be dollar cost averaging   into solana avex uh i think no that's the bigger  competitive layer layer give us a couple more a   couple other ones in that in that tier that you  might be listening i'm boring right so like uh   as much as like uh you know i i love i love  myself some [ __ ] coins right and i and i love   trading that stuff but i try not to talk  about it too much at this point because i just   my following is too big uh but like  i think that you should my my general   thesis now and i love that uh fidelity just put  out the report bitcoin first and made this sort of   like very obvious to me but surprising to  many premise that you should have bitcoin and   everything else right i've been saying for a long  time i think cryptocurrency is a massive misnomer   and we need to eliminate that right because  most of them are not currencies maybe assets   right digital assets and then you have to include  mp3s right so crypto assets um right right and so   i think that there's bitcoin which has solidified  itself as digital gold store value whether it's   performed as one or not hedge and then there's  kind of everything else which are like tech   investments so there's like bitcoin which is like  buying a better version of gold okay and then all   of these other ones which are like investing in  the stock market like buying amazon google apple   facebook meta whatever the [ __ ] it's called at  this point right yeah right um and so which i i   literally likes plugged my entire face and almost  puked and bought you bought some facebook stock oh   i got calls brother i got calls it's a good spot  weekly 200 right it's the same thing i said weekly   200 of a race too much two years of price action  yeah come on yeah buy the blood so um and so   like you know you have this sort of other basket  and so in my mind you have ethereum right which   you have to have exposure to and then if you're  gonna go a little bit down the risk chain i don't   think ethereum owns the entire layer one world  of d5 nft's metaverse whatever the hell else game   game phi that we come up with and so i believe  my thesis is that we'll live in a multi-chain   world they'll be interoperable so you want to be  invested in the multiple chains at least to some   degree like small exposure and anything eventually  that makes them inopera interoperable or faster   right so to me like people love cardano that's  a good one for if anyone believes in it i don't   but like but it is a layer one that has a lot of  hype but luna solana uh avax elrond one near like   choose choose whichever ones you like get three  or four of them right okay because one of them   will become the nft chain one will become the  gaming chain one will become the memory chain   and then the next if you want to go one step  further start looking at things that make   those chains actually scale and faster because if  we're being honest with ourselves none of them are   remotely scalable for mainstream adoption right  supposed to be the fastest whatever i love it but   look how many times it fails right so uh polygon  right matic uh anything zk roll ups or or you know   that helps uh make those things faster like you  know metis dao if you if you like that one polygon   horizon is both interoperability and zk snark  so like i like to touch on all of these atom of   course cosmos right the interoperability dot yep  kind of a layer zero so yeah i have exposure to   all of them wow they're not like they're all like  a percent of my of my portfolio or less but like   yeah one of them is going to 100x i love it that  was really good so if the rest go to zero fine yep   that's you know i i read um in one of  those textbooks something about holding a   a diversified basket of risky assets and that's  what that is right one of them is gonna just yeah   20 30 100 x yeah right that's not diversifying for  anyone who wants to talk about diversity because   they will all die together if this time right  so so there's like two funny schools of thought   right there's the like don't put your eggs in one  basket like the famous statement right which is   for diversifying your wealth own a little bit  of everything if one thing crashes but they all   have systemic risk if you're buying a bunch of all  coins so what i prefer to say is put all your eggs   in which is buff it i think put all your eggs in  one basket and watch that basket really carefully   yeah and so and and i think that that's sort of  an important way you just can't have everything   like literally every penny and you see bitcoin  like could drop a ten thousand and every one of   those will go down eighty percent and uh you know  so it's all about uh portfolio structure and sort   of how you how you approach it but listen diverse  like mark yusuko said this to me he said listen   people say to diversify but uh that's for people  who are already rich right yes you can get rich   by diversifying right right you get rich by by by  being like it's super hyper focused on one thing   and being right right yeah and so diversifying is  for for rich people and that's funny because also   storing value is for rich people right we talk  about bitcoin as a store of value but you gotta   have value to store before that matter you know  the whole market's driven and we'll wrap up here   and again thank you for your time but the whole  market's driven a lot of it's driven by people   who want to be rich and people don't have a lot of  money and they want to buy the next bitcoin they   want to be able to diversify they want to be able  to do all those things and um we are but we're all   in the same pool too which is interesting you  know um so we see all those market participants   and um it's a really interesting ecosystem so  i think that the advice you've given is great   man i love i love having you on here i  love listening to what you have to say   you were talking about like fruit roll-ups  and stuff i've never heard of that before so   but i have my nose in the chart and so it's  it's refreshing to hear from other people   um and all that so the chat room loves you  and and was just fantastic is anything you   want to finish up with to say to people and  uh you know let's hear from you what you got   ah that that's that's really it man i think that  uh you just need to shift your view like you   just said like everybody wants to find the next  bitcoin but like you probably won't you probably   won't right so just don't don't enter with the  expectation that like you're gonna get rich   really quick yeah just enter with the expectation  that you might get rich really really slow and uh   because i think you will if you if you if you  don't uh be a degenerate and trade it away you   know and i think that just trading is kind of  just not for most people right all i can say is   that like yeah and just don't feed into the like  emotional rollercoaster that is this community   it's a great amazing community but no one of us  is particularly uh more clairvoyant than the other   you know we're all just guys we're all just  guys out here trying to like share our best   educated guess at what's happening based on the  information that we have and at the end of the day   you need to be accountable for what information  you choose to absorb and which information you   choose to throw away but the easiest way to handle  this is if you believe crypto's gonna go up just   buy some and wait um that's it i think that's  great advice to to wrap it up with you know be   careful with the hero hero worship and learn to be  reliant on yourself and um you know you can listen   to what other people say but take note of it  and really come to your own conclusions and   you know kind of stand or fall really on your own  two feet uh man i love it i love you i hope you're   doing well and um you're the only person i'm  showing up for on a saturday ah well that does   mean a lot so thank you so much all right all  right well thank you all right that is the man   himself he literally was like sure i'll rearrange  my schedule and come and talk to you it is scott   melker on twitter that's scott mueller wolfe of  all streets he'll be at a million followers soon   which is awesome he deserves it he's got his  newsletter he's got um he's on youtube as well   check out everything he does you'll see all those  links um on his twitter feed i am big let's do a   little tiny bit of bitcoin i'll wrap it up so  um what do we think and by the way thank you   to each and every every one of you for coming  the feedback has been great in the chat room   uh it's been it's been an environment where it's  hard to be um excited as a bull because you know   it's just the mean reversions we know what we're  doing we're bouncing to resistance we're bouncing   to resistance and for my in my view we have the  first suggestion that we may be building some bull   momentum because we have the ema 34 we're closing  above it if we can maintain above 40k you know   first of all if you wanted to go long you could  have just gone along at 40k you want to think   about those big psychological levels you know  anytime you have a trade you want to ask yourself   how can i structure the trade to make money and  not lose too much right you want that asymmetric   risk so we're doing all this stuff below 40k you  can just say listen if i go if it gets above 40k   i'm going long and then no matter what happens  that's my stop-loss maybe at 39.7 or 39.8 just   below it not to say a 200 stop loss as long as you  have at least 600 or three to one right you know a   profit target you're doing well at the astrometric  so asymmetric risk to reward you know so we passed   40k if you wanted to go along you could have very  easily done that that's a big psychological level   if the chart continues to hold 40k we're all set  it's just going to build a base and push higher   um you know both would love to see um you know  head and shoulders here and inverted head and   shoulders and if they do that it would invalidate  which means if we break back below 40 that would   be a sell signal and if it confirms you know up  above maybe that 44k range would confirm that um you want to not focus too much on patterns though  it will confuse you and you'll be trying to is it   a cup and handle is it a spoon and a fork is it a  rising diagonal wedge diamond you know whatever no   horizontal levels all right big level here  underside of support that's now broken any   bounce is going to reject there most likely  all right 40k you want to get above above

2022-02-08 23:09

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